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Reed83HOF

Case against first round TEs

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1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

Some experts have Fant in their top 10 on their big board.  It wouldn't be a Tim Tebow or Darrius Heyward-Bay reach.

Teams do take TEs in RD, but the relative positional value for the pick and the production received during their rookie contract is almost always not worth it.

Just now, Mojo44 said:

Don’t believe everything you read.

Like your post? :lol:

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10 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Teams do take TEs in RD, but the relative positional value for the pick and the production received during their rookie contract is almost always not worth it.

Like your post? :lol:

 OK, it’s very simple. The article is a bunch of BS “data“ which is not probative and you cannot make a decision based on that stuff. You cannot sink your teeth into it. It is just another example of the ubiquitous pre-draft ***** that goes on these days. 

 

 Like I said, it’s simple. Your team has made evaluations  of the top players. You have a certain context in terms of where your team is at right now as far as its development is concerned. You see a seriously talented tight end who you believe, based on all of your assessment of him, can make a major difference on the team. If that is the case, and you have no other player rated ahead of him regardless of position, you take him. Like I said, it is that simple. Why you’re laughing out loud at me It makes me wonder what you’re doing with your hand. 

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Tight ends taken in the first round have a pretty good success rate. Yes some of them have had careers that were OK (Top 10 players for a 3-6 year period flirted with top 5 at times) and careers that started out great but then got derailed due to injury. There are others that were some HOF or near HOF talent. Very few were outright busts. Tight end is a need I wouldn't mind taking a tight end at 9 if Hock is really that kind of caliber of prospect. 

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45 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

So we can never have a relevant TE?

 

Sure we can,just don’t draft him in the 1st round. 

Round 3 seems to be a great spot.

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1 hour ago, fansince88 said:

47 hours and 12 minutes to go!!!! will we make it?

It’s looking bleak 

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3 minutes ago, dlonce said:

 

Sure we can,just don’t draft him in the 1st round. 

Round 3 seems to be a great spot.

 

This works - provided he contributes substantially early on. :thumbsup:

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It’s just really hard to justify a te this high with no precedent backing up the rationale for this. Very similar to Allen pick with just knowing this guys game will translate to the nfl without having much evidence from prior players that this is a good move. Could work out great tough, it’s a tough call. Personally I would never pick a te top 10. 

Edited by Rocbillsfan1

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I thought Josh Allen's learning curve was pretty quick last season. And Mayfield.  Darnold's too.

 

What was that again?

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That article is irrelevant as most of the teams with top tight ends are also top offensive teams. Now all NFL teams are looking to find one of those top tight ends for their offense. 

 

Zack Ertz Eagles 116 receptions, the #2 receiver in 2018, playoffs!

 

Travis Kelce 103 receptions Kansas City, playoffs

 

Gronk, Patriots, playoffs, super bowl winners

 

George Kittle, SF, 88 receptions for 1377 yards

 

Austin Hooper, Falcons 71 receptions

 

Jared Cook, Raiders, 68 receptions

 

Eric Ebron, Colts, 66 receptions, playoffs

 

Teams have discovered what the Patriots have known for years about having a top pass catching TE. What happened in the past is in the past.

 

I see three tight ends going in the first round this year. Hock, Noah Fant and Irv Smith. 

 

 

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There was an Interesting 538 article looking at how FA money is spent relative to draft capital spent. They found TE to be the biggest mismatch in the direction of more FA capital spent relative to draft capital. Ignoring QB which has its own rules, DL was the opposite direction with the most draft capital spent relative to FA capital. I wonder if this thought that TEs struggle to have a lot of impact on their rookie contracts is why there is the difference

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-positions-do-teams-obsess-over-and-overlook-on-draft-day/

Edited by YattaOkasan
Now with link
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1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Chances sure seem to be greater outside of RD1

 

Edit: purpose of this isn't to troll or anything like that. I found it a very interesting article that made a lot of great points about this position. A rookie TEhas a lot on their plate and you rarely see the RD1 guys work out on their first contract.

 

For every Shockey, you're stumbling across Jerramy Stevens, Marcedes Lewis (Breakout YR 5), Jermaine Gresham, Daniel Graham, Kyle Brady (Breakout YR 7) etc who disappointed on their rookie deals.

 You can make the same argument for virtually every position chosen in the first round throughout the history of the draft and, yet, it still hs no significance when it comes to assessing individual players.

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36 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Tight ends taken in the first round have a pretty good success rate. Yes some of them have had careers that were OK (Top 10 players for a 3-6 year period flirted with top 5 at times) and careers that started out great but then got derailed due to injury. There are others that were some HOF or near HOF talent. Very few were outright busts. Tight end is a need I wouldn't mind taking a tight end at 9 if Hock is really that kind of caliber of prospect. 

 

Let's see the success rate of first round TEs? Who are the players that were OK (TOP 10 players for a 3-6 year period who flirted with the top 5 at times? Very few outright busts?

 

The TE position is overvalued on this board and by some teams. So here is a little TE history

 

First round TEs in NFL history

 

1.) Games Played...In the 1997 draft, Kansas City selected Tony Gonzalez with the 13th overall pick and to date, his 270 games played are the most for a first round tight end.

2.) Receptions... Gonzalez leads all first round tight ends and all at his position with 1,325 catches. The second-highest total by a first round tight end is Greg Olson's 666, followed by Ozzie Newsome at 662.

3.) Receiving Yards...The first round benchmark is Gonzalez, with 15,127 yards, with fellow first-rounders Ozzie Newsome (7,980) and Greg Olson (7,847) the only others to gain at least 7,500 yards.

4.) Touchdowns...Among first round tight ends, Gonzalez again is in sole possession for the title with 111 scores. Vernon Davis tops active first-rounders with 62, followed by Greg Olson with 57. Dallas Clark is the only other first round tight end with at least fifty touchdowns (53).

 

Now a little more info:

 

1.) NFL teams have utilized 978 draft selections to select players at the tight end position,

a) 740 out of the 978 appeared in an NFL game.

b.) 83 in < 10 games 

 

2.) 11 TEs (in NFL history) played in at least 200 games,

a.) 3 are HOFers, Tony Gonzalez (270), Jackie Smith (210) and Shannon Sharpe (204)

 

3.) 500+ receptions (in NFL history) = 14 TEs,

a.) 4 of the 14 are HOFers Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Kellen Winslow and Ozzie Newsome.

b.) Gonzalez receptions (1,352), Jason Witten (Dallas; 2003-17, 19) is the only other tight end with at least 1,000 (1,152).

c.) Sharpe (815), Greg Olson (666), Newsome (662) and Jimmy Graham (611) are the only other tight ends to inch past the 600-catch level.

 

4.) 9 TEs in NFL history at least 7,000 yards receiving:

a.) Gonzalez ( 15,127 ), Shannon Sharpe (10,060 yards), Ozzie Newsome (7,980) and Jackie Smith (7,918). The only other tight end with at least 10,000 yards (12,448) is Jason Witten.

b.) Rob Gronkowski, (7,861 yards). The other three members are all currently active - Greg Olson has gained 7,847 yards, followed by Vernon Davis (7,439) and Jimmy Graham (7,436).

 

5.) 12 TEs (in NFL history) have at least 50TDs

a.)  Gonzalez (111 TDs). Gronkowski (79 TDs) and Jimmy Graham leads all active tight ends with 71. Shannon Sharpe (62 TDs).

b.) Only others with 60+ TDs are: Witten (68), Vernon Davis (62) and former Redskin Jerry Smith (60).

c.) Greg Olson (57) Wesley Walls (54) Dallas Clark (53) Ben Winter Coates (50)

 

6.) Except for Sharpe (seventh round), Jerry Smith (ninth) and Coates (fifth), all members of the 50-Touchdown Club went during the first three rounds of the draft.

 

Edit: @Nihilarian @Mojo44@billsfan1959 Sorry I don't see the value in Round1 and history as a predictive indicator of RD1 success for a TE is pretty damn bleak

Edited by Reed83HOF

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1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I am still a Hockenson at #9 guy.  I think he is the best TE prospect to come out of college in the last 20 years.  If he is there at #9, and it is looking increasingly likely that he will already be gone, I think the Bills should grab him and not look back.

 

Elite run blocker.

Elite pass blocker.

Elite receiver.

Process guy.

True #1 weapon for Allen.

Position of need.

Kittle from same program, Pro-Bowl year 2

 

I don't know how you pass on him.

 

Passing on Hock at 9 would be inconceivable!

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

image.thumb.png.32ecf3ebe62f671f3d60dcca85f282f4.png

Knowing what we know now, would you have drafted any of these TEs in the first round?

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1 minute ago, Peace Frog said:

Knowing what we know now, would you have drafted any of these TEs in the first round?

A better question would be:

 

What level of production did they provide while on their rookie contract?

 

Another question could be:

 

What other players at premium positions were passed over by the teams who drafted TEs in RD1?

 

image.thumb.png.367a4667570d4902fb24a238df6a9db6.png

image.thumb.png.7ce70b3f871164294b7530afe26e95c6.png

image.thumb.png.bb5b22871c70b48a984da222e587e293.png

image.thumb.png.509aae10ca08c6c54a14d52727706210.png

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For comparison sake:

 

image.thumb.png.1b3a82c7fdca7c239d720af7b6ed66dd.png

 

So is this enough production for your first rd TE for the first few years of their career?

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I love Hock, and he will be a great and dependable TE in the league for many years, but I do not see him as a "game changer" that other teams will need to plan for.  He is very very good in all TE attributes, but he does not seem elite.   He seems like a slightly souped-up version of Heath Miller.  The NFL has had such poor blocking TE's for a long time that Hock looks like something unusual.  I think he is a very important piece for an offense that is a TE away from elite status.  Perhaps someone like the Chargers.  

 

But for the Bills, and a top 10 pick, we need a legit game changer that other teams plan around.  Someone like Oliver, Sweat, Dillard, etc.  A very good TE, and perhaps even someone that the Bills could use more out of the gate, will be available in Rd. 2-5 most likely.   

 

And as noted by @Reed83HOF, drafting TE's in the first round usually produces sub-optimal results.  I'm wondering if the college game makes certain TE's look better than they will be in the NFL, and hides other TE's with more potential?  At any rate, even if this is nonsense, I stand by my first two paragraphs.  No Rd. 1 TE for Buffalo.  

 

Edited by RyanC883
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3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

A better question would be:

 

What level of production did they provide while on their rookie contract?

 

Another question could be:

 

What other players at premium positions were passed over by the teams who drafted TEs in RD1?

 

image.thumb.png.367a4667570d4902fb24a238df6a9db6.png

image.thumb.png.7ce70b3f871164294b7530afe26e95c6.png

image.thumb.png.bb5b22871c70b48a984da222e587e293.png

image.thumb.png.509aae10ca08c6c54a14d52727706210.png

 

Heath Miller in 2005 drafted 30th overall borderline HOF career contributor on some very successful Steelers teams. 

 

Vernon Davis in 2006 was drafted 6th overall and he turned in a good career.

 

Mercedes Lewis in 2006 drafted 28th overall and he played a long career turning in a 6 year stretch where he was one of the top 10

tightends in the league and probably would have been better had he not been on an awful team most of his career.

 

Greg Olsen in 2007 was drafted 30th overall and turned in a HOF career

 

Dustin Keller in 2008 was drafted 30th overall and turned into one of the top 5 TE's in the league for a 2-3 year period before a catastrophic injury derailed his career. 

 

Brandon Pettigrew in 2009 was drafted 20th overall never an elite TE but turned in a 4 year stretch of top 10 to 5 production before injury derailed his career. 

 

Jermaine Gresham in 2010 was drafted 21st overall opened his career with a 5 year stretch turning in top 10 to 5 production before injuries knocked him down a peg although he hung around longer than Pettigrew and Keller.

 

Tyler Eifert the first true bust of this bunch although Eifert put together a very good 2015 he never eclipsed 500 yards outside of that one season. 

 

From 2005 to 2013 there were 8 Tight Ends drafted in the first round. I would say 3-4 were great players. Davis, Olsen, and Miller that more than justified their first round billing. I would then say that Lewis is borderline as while he was never elite he was a good player consistently for a long time and probably would have been a top 5 TE in the league had he been on a better team. 

 

I would then say 3 players Pettigrew, Gresham, and Keller gave you 4 years or more of top 10 production at their position before injuries derailed their careers or declined their careers. So can you call them busts? That depends, in the NFL 4 years isn't a short time to produce at an elite level, but for a player drafted in the first round you at least want 7-8 highly productive years. So I would put them as a semi-bust. 

 

I would only say that 1 TE drafted in the first round is really a bust and that's Eifert who only turned in one good season. That leaves the TE position in the first round at the following hit rate. 

 

50% Hit (HOF or borderline HOF career) 

37.5 Somewhere in the middle (4-5 years of high end production) 

12.5% Outright Bust (No prolonged stretch of production)

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9 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Heath Miller in 2005 drafted 30th overall borderline HOF career contributor on some very successful Steelers teams. 

 

Vernon Davis in 2006 was drafted 6th overall and he turned in a good career.

 

Mercedes Lewis in 2006 drafted 28th overall and he played a long career turning in a 6 year stretch where he was one of the top 10

tightends in the league and probably would have been better had he not been on an awful team most of his career.

 

Greg Olsen in 2007 was drafted 30th overall and turned in a HOF career

 

Dustin Keller in 2008 was drafted 30th overall and turned into one of the top 5 TE's in the league for a 2-3 year period before a catastrophic injury derailed his career. 

 

Brandon Pettigrew in 2009 was drafted 20th overall never an elite TE but turned in a 4 year stretch of top 10 to 5 production before injury derailed his career. 

 

Jermaine Gresham in 2010 was drafted 21st overall opened his career with a 5 year stretch turning in top 10 to 5 production before injuries knocked him down a peg although he hung around longer than Pettigrew and Keller.

 

Tyler Eifert the first true bust of this bunch although Eifert put together a very good 2015 he never eclipsed 500 yards outside of that one season. 

 

From 2005 to 2013 there were 8 Tight Ends drafted in the first round. I would say 3-4 were great players. Davis, Olsen, and Miller that more than justified their first round billing. I would then say that Lewis is borderline as while he was never elite he was a good player consistently for a long time and probably would have been a top 5 TE in the league had he been on a better team. 

 

I would then say 3 players Pettigrew, Gresham, and Keller gave you 4 years or more of top 10 production at their position before injuries derailed their careers or declined their careers. So can you call them busts? That depends, in the NFL 4 years isn't a short time to produce at an elite level, but for a player drafted in the first round you at least want 7-8 highly productive years. So I would put them as a semi-bust. 

 

I would only say that 1 TE drafted in the first round is really a bust and that's Eifert who only turned in one good season. That leaves the TE position in the first round at the following hit rate. 

 

50% Hit (HOF or borderline HOF career) 

37.5 Somewhere in the middle (4-5 years of high end production) 

12.5% Outright Bust (No prolonged stretch of production)

Out of this list only Vernon Davis and Greg Olsen stand a chance at the HOF

 

There are only 8 TEs in the HOF as on April 23, 2019 and you are willing to put 50% of your list in the HOF or call them a borderline HOF career?
 

If you are drafting a player in the first round, or even the top half of the first round I would want more production than Zay Jones out of them.

 

Zay's contract:

image.thumb.png.4da9eb52b6d0ea9564a1662b76238495.png

 

OJ Howard

image.thumb.png.14facf87bd075f38529b729c42a3d804.png

 

David Njoku

image.thumb.png.2f2a47c6d0ab0baadd2698972551f112.png

 

Evan Engram

 

image.thumb.png.01b41f340523d57f63dcf08b18284f5b.png

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Hm. Maybe go back and watch some Iowa games... Because of Iowa's offensive style, Hock ended up doing may of the things he'll be asked to do in the pros.

 

I don't think he's anything like Ebron at NC or Olsen at the U.... TBH, I've never seen a better route running TE at the college level... And a better run-blocking TE, you simply won't find.

 

Hock is one of a kind... If you were talking about Drew Sample, or kahale Warring, I might agree, but Hock is in a completely different category... -Easy money at 9.

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1 minute ago, #34fan said:

Hm. Maybe go back and watch some Iowa games... Because of Iowa's offensive style, Hock ended up doing may of the things he'll be asked to do in the pros.

 

I don't think he's anything like Ebron at NC or Olsen at the U.... TBH, I've never seen a better route running TE at the college level... And a better run-blocking TE, you simply won't find.

 

Hock is one of a kind... If you were talking about Drew Sample, or kahale Warring, I might agree, but Hock is in a completely different category... -Easy money at 9.

 

BTW I really like Hock, loved Shockey, like Howard, Engram and Njuko. The issue is the production at that draft position, the cost and the other players at more impactful positions.The positional value just does not justify the investment when there are other players who will add more production and value over the life of their contract

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