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Case against first round TEs

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14 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I think the flaw in your reasoning is that ten years ago, even five years ago, Hockenson, Fant, and Irv Smith wouldn't have received 1st round grades because the TE position was devalued compared to where it was today.  Hock, Fant,  and Smith would have had second or third round grades in the past and that is where they would have been selected just like Gronk, Ertz, and Kittle.

 

What has changed is that the NFL is now valuing the TE position more so they are now getting 1st round grades.  All those TEs that get pointed out with 2nd and 3rd round grades in the past like Gronk and Ertz would be 1st rounders today.  What that means is that you are no longer getting Gronk / Ertz / Kittle quality TEs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds anymore because they are now going in the 1st round.  If you wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to draft a TE today you're getting a TE who would have been selected in the 4th-6th rounds before.

 

In short, the elite TEs don't go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds anymore, they go in the 1st round because the NFL game has changed and TEs are valued more now.

 

Just my take.  Could be wrong.  😋

The game itself has also changed by way of protecting the receiver making the TE position become monsters of the grid iron on O.

 

Hockenson is a monster...

 

...Josh Allen needs a monster TE...

Edited by Figster
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So Gronk and the great TE's of this age would have been ignored 15 years ago as an attack option?

 

i don't think so.... best player available and a coach with a clue can work wonders.

 

 

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Nobody is mentioning that the TE position can be done by committee.  Beane has said that he sees 3 types of tight ends.   PASS BLOCKING,  RUN BLOCKING and PASS CATCHING.    Honestly, most of the time, the defense can guess what the most likely type of offensive play is coming from down and distance and the way the game is going.    You can sub in the right style tight end to make your offensive play go better and the defense may or may not be able to counter.  You can also sub in a type of TE and do something else and get an advantage that way.   A pass catching tight end IS NOT NEEDED for "3rd and 15".  That is where (have you ever heard?) 4 receiver sets are used.

 

Look at who the Bills have on the roster right now.   Fisher is a former 300pound OT converted to tight end  (blocking,  280 6-6).  Crom was a college wide receiver.   Kraft was behind an all pro in Cinci and did okay in 2017 where he started 13 games. (42 receptions, 400 yards and 7 TD).  It is not that they have nobody.

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15 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Nobody is mentioning that the TE position can be done by committee.  Beane has said that he sees 3 types of tight ends.   PASS BLOCKING,  RUN BLOCKING and PASS CATCHING.    Honestly, most of the time, the defense can guess what the most likely type of offensive play is coming from down and distance and the way the game is going.    You can sub in the right style tight end to make your offensive play go better and the defense may or may not be able to counter.  You can also sub in a type of TE and do something else and get an advantage that way.   A pass catching tight end IS NOT NEEDED for "3rd and 15".  That is where (have you ever heard?) 4 receiver sets are used.

 

Look at who the Bills have on the roster right now.   Fisher is a former 300pound OT converted to tight end  (blocking,  280 6-6).  Crom was a college wide receiver.   Kraft was behind an all pro in Cinci and did okay in 2017 where he started 13 games. (42 receptions, 400 yards and 7 TD).  It is not that they have nobody.

 

Bills don't care about TE, nor have they pursued a great to play there

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2 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Nobody is mentioning that the TE position can be done by committee.  Beane has said that he sees 3 types of tight ends.   PASS BLOCKING,  RUN BLOCKING and PASS CATCHING.    Honestly, most of the time, the defense can guess what the most likely type of offensive play is coming from down and distance and the way the game is going.    You can sub in the right style tight end to make your offensive play go better and the defense may or may not be able to counter.  You can also sub in a type of TE and do something else and get an advantage that way.   A pass catching tight end IS NOT NEEDED for "3rd and 15".  That is where (have you ever heard?) 4 receiver sets are used.

 

Look at who the Bills have on the roster right now.   Fisher is a former 300pound OT converted to tight end  (blocking,  280 6-6).  Crom was a college wide receiver.   Kraft was behind an all pro in Cinci and did okay in 2017 where he started 13 games. (42 receptions, 400 yards and 7 TD).  It is not that they have nobody.

Right, but the Hock supporters say (I don't know this myself, but they say it) that the reason Hock is unusual and worth the pick is that he's all three rolled into one, which is what Gronk was.  Your offense has great options if the tight end you put on the field does all three.   It allows for your QB to check from a power running play to a pass play and vice versa, and have a right personnel on the field at tight end either way.   In fact, that's one of the things that made the Patriots offense so devastating.   When the offense had a good mismatch against a small D, they'd go hurry up and run the ball, not allowing the D to substitute.  When they caught the D in a big, slower run-stopping defense, they'd go hurry up and pass multiple plays in a row.   They could do both equally well with Gronk on the field.   

 

You're right, the roster IS set up to do TE by committee, and that's not bad.   But instead of Croom, it's better if your pass catching tight end is more like Witten or any of the lesser but solid tight ends, who are excellent route runners and at least decent blockers.  And those guys are also better than a Fisher, who (at least so far as we know, is likely to be more of a third offensive tackle.  It will be great if he's a real route running threat, but I'm not holding my breath.  

 

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8 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Bills don't care about TE, nor have they pursued a great to play there

 

 

Perhaps the draft will change our perspective.

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I guess we should change the motto to “BPA unless it’s a TE in the first round because they are never worth that high of a pick.”

 

So stated the OP. And that stance is ludicrous. 

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11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Right, but the Hock supporters say (I don't know this myself, but they say it) that the reason Hock is unusual and worth the pick is that he's all three rolled into one, which is what Gronk was.  Your offense has great options if the tight end you put on the field does all three.   It allows for your QB to check from a power running play to a pass play and vice versa, and have a right personnel on the field at tight end either way.   In fact, that's one of the things that made the Patriots offense so devastating.   When the offense had a good mismatch against a small D, they'd go hurry up and run the ball, not allowing the D to substitute.  When they caught the D in a big, slower run-stopping defense, they'd go hurry up and pass multiple plays in a row.   They could do both equally well with Gronk on the field.   

 

You're right, the roster IS set up to do TE by committee, and that's not bad.   But instead of Croom, it's better if your pass catching tight end is more like Witten or any of the lesser but solid tight ends, who are excellent route runners and at least decent blockers.  And those guys are also better than a Fisher, who (at least so far as we know, is likely to be more of a third offensive tackle.  It will be great if he's a real route running threat, but I'm not holding my breath.  

 

 

Unfortunately, I don't think Hockenson is the next Gronk or anywhere near the route runner Gronk was. I'm not sure he will become that either. He's got soft hands so he does catch everything and he is an excellent blocker but Fant is the more dynamic receiver out of the 2 Iowa TEs, my opinion of course.

 

I still feel very much like this is going to go just like the Oj Howard hype. Loads of pundits had him as a top 10 pick, can't miss, sure thing etc. He ended up going 19.

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4 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Unfortunately, I don't think Hockenson is the next Gronk or anywhere near the route runner Gronk was. I'm not sure he will become that either. He's got soft hands so he does catch everything and he is an excellent blocker but Fant is the more dynamic receiver out of the 2 Iowa TEs, my opinion of course.

 

I still feel very much like this is going to go just like the Oj Howard hype. Loads of pundits had him as a top 10 pick, can't miss, sure thing etc. He ended up going 19.

 Soft hands and excellent blocker in an O that likes to run the football is ok by me. With Allens ability to extend plays the blocking and soft hands are key IMO.

 

Point taken on the drop to 19.

 

 

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17 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I think the flaw in your reasoning is that ten years ago, even five years ago, Hockenson, Fant, and Irv Smith wouldn't have received 1st round grades because the TE position was devalued compared to where it was today.  Hock, Fant,  and Smith would have had second or third round grades in the past and that is where they would have been selected just like Gronk, Ertz, and Kittle.

 

What has changed is that the NFL is now valuing the TE position more so they are now getting 1st round grades.  All those TEs that get pointed out with 2nd and 3rd round grades in the past like Gronk and Ertz would be 1st rounders today.  What that means is that you are no longer getting Gronk / Ertz / Kittle quality TEs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds anymore because they are now going in the 1st round.  If you wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to draft a TE today you're getting a TE who would have been selected in the 4th-6th rounds before.

 

In short, the elite TEs don't go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds anymore, they go in the 1st round because the NFL game has changed and TEs are valued more now.

 

Just my take.  Could be wrong.  😋

Sure that's a good point, but since when did this change happen? It's sort of a self fulfilling prophecy justifying us taking Hockenson along with maybe the 2 other top TEs going 1st if we're making the claim teams value TE's high more 2019 draft and going forward when we're one of those teams.

 

Anyways my other main point is simply production. OJ Howard was the rage, is by no means a bust, and the production just doesn't justify the price for me. For that matter Kittle was what, like the 6th TE taken that year? He wouldn't have been a round 1-2 TE that year even if teams had a premium on TEs. 

 

Too much of it is contingent on assuming your Quarterback likes those TE routes as well. Take Jimmy Graham as a top flight TE to underutilized by Russell Wilson and later Aaron Rodgers who's a great QB but simply doesn't give his TEs that much production. It's not always the TE, the QB has to love the routes the TE runs in the offense, on top of the TE being an elite players in his own right. 

 

Taking all that into consideration it is a risky prospect: there's very few TEs truly at the top of the totem pole.. they're hard to find, QBs like Wentz or Mahomes target the TE heavily, the OC needs to draw up the right plays to get it working, and even hitting your TE with OJ Howard, a TE you can't really complain about picking, draws little production compared to a high WR. It's paying a steep price to expect a TE to the one of the top 3 in the league.. the production after that goes off a cliff. We're presumably looking for 3 of 32 elite starting TEs rather than 10 of 32 elite WRs or some other position. 

 

I think aiming for such a difficult talent to separate from the pack, on top of teams presumably becoming more gung ho on this position is asking for a lot. If you land with OJ Howard, you could have somewhat similar in FA getting a Jesse James or something. The production if things work out isn't terribly hard to replace through other methods outside of a top 10 pick.

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20 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

I find it humorous that some Bills fans don't like the idea of a TE with the first pick at #9. I think the same could be said for drafting an offensive guard at that position too.

I think the chance of landing a game changing OG that high is much much higher than landing a game changing TE. There just aren't that many in the NFL. I don't want either, but heck i'd go OG if I had to pick all things even since there are far more great OGs you can hit on and be satisfied with the level of play.

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