Reading tea leaves: Bills trade down with NYG or OAK

[Big Turk]

9 hours ago, Estro said:

Less than 3 weeks out from the draft and there's a lot of rumors and smoke, most of which is nonsense, some though truth.

 

And it's my belief that the Bills would like to trade down in this years draft.  Of course they're doing work on a lot of the top 10 guys, as they should, you always have to be prepared to pick a guy at your spot.....but like I said if they had it their way I think they'd love to move down and pick up another premium pick.  This sentiment has been tossed around by a few of the twitter guys I think tend to have good info, Eric Galko being one of them.  That brings me to the 2 teams I think might mesh with the Bills desire to move down:

 

The Raiders and the Giants.

 

I think both teams would love to take a premium non QB player with their top pick, and then use their second 1st round pick as part of a package to move up and get their QB.  The kicker is I don't think either team wants Haskins.....I think it's Daniel Jones and/or Drew Lock that'll be the guy that goes at #9 if the Bills are able to pull off a trade down.  Here's how a potential trade down with both of these teams could look:

 

TRADE w/ Giants: Giants get: #9 & #74 (worth 1570 pts. on the draft trade value chart)

                                 

                                 Bills get: #17, #37 & #95 (1600 pts.)

 

TRADE w/ Raiders: Raiders get: #9 & #112 (1420 pts.)

 

                                  Bills get : #24 & #27 (1420 pts.)

 

I'd love either of these scenarios, as I'm always a fan of trading down.  I think we have a good chance 3 weeks from now!

 

Those old draft charts are garbage...you should be looking at the updated ones based on actual research instead of random assignment by a person from 30 years ago

Edited April 7, 2019 by matter2003

[Nester]

No way

 

take an amazing player at 9.

 

 

[Logic]

Appreciate the post.

I see the following to be more likely:

Bills take impact defender at 9 (Oliver?).

Bills package 2nd and 3rd round pick to move up to make sure they don't miss out on one of the "big three" tight ends (Hock, Fant, Irv).

Bills wind up drafting 6 or 7 players when it's all said and done, not 10.

 

[billsredneck1]

18 days!.....don't like to wish away time ( that i should spend fishing) but this stress is too much! 

 

trade back with carolina, grab a 2nd and 3rd and give them a 4th.

 

grab clelin ferrell at 16.... get risner and tillery in the 2nd,...ximines and mike mc coy in the 3rd,...trade back into the 3rd and take jace sternberger,  

 

trade the rest of the picks for bpa (isabella)and bryce love.  there's today's random thoughts....

Edited April 7, 2019 by billsredneck1

[Just Joshin']

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I don't mean to blast the OP here...

 

The team already has 10 picks

They aren't devoid of the on-the-roster, role-player types that are found on days 2 and 3

The team lacks genuine studs at nearly all positions 

Free agency has brought a LOT of depth at the 2/3 spots at most positions 

 

All of the above indicate that they should trade UP, not down.

 

Accumulating picks can be a useful tool if a team needs to change culture and/or strengthen their depth. This team needs a few studs that other teams are forced to game plan around.

 

I would MUCH rather see them use their top 10 pick on a stud pass rusher (either at DT or EDGE) and then package day 2/3 picks and move back into round 1 for another stud at either WR, CB, DL, or LT.

Nice post, spot on

[MAJBobby]

10 hours ago, Estro said:

Less than 3 weeks out from the draft and there's a lot of rumors and smoke, most of which is nonsense, some though truth.

 

And it's my belief that the Bills would like to trade down in this years draft.  Of course they're doing work on a lot of the top 10 guys, as they should, you always have to be prepared to pick a guy at your spot.....but like I said if they had it their way I think they'd love to move down and pick up another premium pick.  This sentiment has been tossed around by a few of the twitter guys I think tend to have good info, Eric Galko being one of them.  That brings me to the 2 teams I think might mesh with the Bills desire to move down:

 

The Raiders and the Giants.

 

I think both teams would love to take a premium non QB player with their top pick, and then use their second 1st round pick as part of a package to move up and get their QB.  The kicker is I don't think either team wants Haskins.....I think it's Daniel Jones and/or Drew Lock that'll be the guy that goes at #9 if the Bills are able to pull off a trade down.  Here's how a potential trade down with both of these teams could look:

 

TRADE w/ Giants: Giants get: #9 & #74 (worth 1570 pts. on the draft trade value chart)

                                 

                                 Bills get: #17, #37 & #95 (1600 pts.)

 

TRADE w/ Raiders: Raiders get: #9 & #112 (1420 pts.)

 

                                  Bills get : #24 & #27 (1420 pts.)

 

I'd love either of these scenarios, as I'm always a fan of trading down.  I think we have a good chance 3 weeks from now!

 

 

I would want more from each of these trades. You HAVE to charge the QB Premium 

[SoCal Deek]

7 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

Nice post, spot on

I’m not sure the OP is suggesting a stockpiling of middle round picks. I think the point is to move out of the #9 slot so as to get two FIRST round picks. Or, at a minimum one later first and another good second.  I’d be all for that.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

10 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

Why can't Buffalo have a premium player?  If there is a difference maker, take him.

 

You are not getting enough in those trades - ditch the chart.

I agree with ya JJ. If there's a difference maker when the 9th pick is up, stay there and get him. I don't see the Bills picking inside the top 10 for a while after this draft, so take advantage of this year. Hell after the FA moves this offseason trade up and get your guy and bring some top level talent to our team. It's really the only thing we don't have enough of after the solid moves Beane made in March.

 

[CaptnCoke11]

Two trade down scenarios i can get excited about. That’s if the guy they want isn’t there at 9 of course.  

 

1.  Try and get a 1st or 2nd in 2020.  Love the idea of getting more picks for future drafts.  

 

2.  Trade back and get a second this draft then package our 2nds and move back into late round 1 for a guy they like that’s still on the board.  

[Green Lightning]

5 hours ago, DCbillsfan said:

The Bills will likely have a possible trade in place but if a guy they like is there at 9, they'll take that player.  Reminds me of Denver's situation last year.  Chubb was there at 5 so they canceled trade with Bills.

 I think this is the plan in place. And I hope they go DT or Edge.

[Paulus]

So far Gruden has been stocking up picks. Unless there is someone I'm not aware of, why would Gruden buck his own trend and give up picks? 

 

Inb4 mccarron. Mccarron was a 5th. The 5th is not the same as the first 3 rounds. 

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Those old draft charts are garbage...you should be looking at the updated ones based on actual research instead of random assignment by a person from 30 years ago

Jimmy Johnson draft charts hold up better today with the premium picks getting a premium price than they did 20 years ago considering the rookie wage cap.  Teams still use it.

 

4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I don't mean to blast the OP here...

 

The team already has 10 picks

They aren't devoid of the on-the-roster, role-player types that are found on days 2 and 3

The team lacks genuine studs at nearly all positions 

Free agency has brought a LOT of depth at the 2/3 spots at most positions 

 

All of the above indicate that they should trade UP, not down.

 

Accumulating picks can be a useful tool if a team needs to change culture and/or strengthen their depth. This team needs a few studs that other teams are forced to game plan around.

 

I would MUCH rather see them use their top 10 pick on a stud pass rusher (either at DT or EDGE) and then package day 2/3 picks and move back into round 1 for another stud at either WR, CB, DL, or LT.

Until Beane gets a call and a 2020 first rounder is offered and he can't resist it considering he feels he can still get the player he wants as he has five or so players rated similarly and he's sure at least two or three will be available on a trade down.  I still see this team as one year away from being a Super Bowl contender and having two 1st round picks next year could set us up for long term success.  

 

The point is your plan can change quickly on draft day if a team is desparate enough so this "there's no way the Bills trade down out of the nine spot" mindset is nonsense.  Any GM has their phone lines open come draft day.

[Pete]

11 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

Why can't Buffalo have a premium player?  If there is a difference maker, take him.

 

You are not getting enough in those trades - ditch the chart.

I would rather have two premium players.  That's what happens when you trade down and hit on both picks

[JaCrispy]

2 minutes ago, Pete said:

I would rather have two premium players.  That's what happens when you trade down and hit on both picks

I would love something like Tillary and Lindstrome with the first two picks...perhaps a TE with the 3rd pick.

[Alphadawg7]

11 hours ago, Estro said:

Less than 3 weeks out from the draft and there's a lot of rumors and smoke, most of which is nonsense, some though truth.

 

And it's my belief that the Bills would like to trade down in this years draft.  Of course they're doing work on a lot of the top 10 guys, as they should, you always have to be prepared to pick a guy at your spot.....but like I said if they had it their way I think they'd love to move down and pick up another premium pick.  This sentiment has been tossed around by a few of the twitter guys I think tend to have good info, Eric Galko being one of them.  That brings me to the 2 teams I think might mesh with the Bills desire to move down:

 

The Raiders and the Giants.

 

I think both teams would love to take a premium non QB player with their top pick, and then use their second 1st round pick as part of a package to move up and get their QB.  The kicker is I don't think either team wants Haskins.....I think it's Daniel Jones and/or Drew Lock that'll be the guy that goes at #9 if the Bills are able to pull off a trade down.  Here's how a potential trade down with both of these teams could look:

 

TRADE w/ Giants: Giants get: #9 & #74 (worth 1570 pts. on the draft trade value chart)

                                 

                                 Bills get: #17, #37 & #95 (1600 pts.)

 

TRADE w/ Raiders: Raiders get: #9 & #112 (1420 pts.)

 

                                  Bills get : #24 & #27 (1420 pts.)

 

I'd love either of these scenarios, as I'm always a fan of trading down.  I think we have a good chance 3 weeks from now!

 

 

I would be quite happy with either of these 2 scenarios to be honest.  Basically we could easily end up with a combo of a WR (Harry/Butler for example), a DT (Simmons or even Tillery), and a TE (Fant, Hockenson, or Irv) in those first 3 picks.  

 

My personal favorite would be to trade with the Raiders because we still have our 3rd rounder and I think we can still get quite the combination of players there that would be similar as the Giants trade.

 

Giants trade, my target at 17 is DK (He wont be there, but if he is, thats gotta be the pick), Hockenson/Fant and Simmons .  I assume DK wont be there, so if we got a TE in Hockenson (or Fant), then I would target DT and WR with 37 and 40 (Simmons, Tillery, Butler, Harry, etc).  If we went Simmons at 17, then I would target some combo of WR and TE with picks 37 and 40.  If by some shock DK slides to 17, then run to the podium to get him and draft TE and DT with 37 and 40.

 

Raiders trade, my target at 24 is Simmons.  If Simmons is off the board, then I am looking to grab Harry or Fant (unless Hockenson shockingly is on the board at 24).  Assuming we took Simmons at 24, I would obviously take WR or TE (like Harry or Fant) at 27 then target the other position at 40.  If Simmons was gone at 24, then I take a WR and TE at both 24 and 27 then target Tillery or maybe Ximines Oshane at 40.  

[John from Riverside]

I am basically Oliver or Hock at 9 at this point

 

Something tells me it is going to be hard to move down in this draft and get value.....if you can do it and try to pick as many late 1st, 2nd round picks as possible

[Augie]

6 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

Why would the giants/raiders be desperate to trade up with us? They each have a pick a few rounds before us.

 

People are saying the Giants want to go defense with their first pick, but still need a QB. 

 

Gruden just wants to get as many QB’s as early as possible in the first, and probably second rounds. This may extend into the third, and beyond, hard to say. It’s Gruden, after all. 

 

I’m not at all against trading back, unless there is an elite difference maker. I get that we need to build a roster with depth with solid players, but we also need some greatness if it’s available. Is that Oliver? I don’t know. I’ll trust our guys to do the right thing. 

[JimmyNoodles]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

People are saying the Giants want to go defense with their first pick, but still need a QB. 

 

Gruden just wants to get as many QB’s as early as possible in the first, and probably second rounds. This may extend into the third, and beyond, hard to say. It’s Gruden, after all. 

 

I’m not at all against trading back, unless there is an elite difference maker. I get that we need to build a roster with depth with solid players, but we also need some greatness if it’s available. Is that Oliver? I don’t know. I’ll trust our guys to do the right thing. 

Agree and I'm not at all sure that there is elite talent beyond a few guys.  They did great in FA but there are lots of spots for depth.  I's say the Bills need to add 1 each of WR, TE, OT, S, CB, RB, DT, EDGE.  I'd like to see 3 new LB's competing for spots on the team.  That adds up to 11 players via the draft or FA still to come that might have legitimate shots.  Lots of value in the draft from mid to late round 1 through round 3, generally the sweet spot.     

[Buffalo Barbarian]

10 hours ago, Forward Progress said:

 

I want more too, but it always comes down to supply and demand. Detroit (picking at #8) has publicly stated that they are open to trading back in the draft. Assuming this is true, teams who want to trade up have at least two teams willing to trade back, which will reduce the compensation for the trade.

 

We can get more if they want a QB.

 

 

[mannc]

Just now, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

We can get more if they want a QB.

 

 

Not necessarily.  The Cardinals only gave up a third (plus a late round pick) to move from 15 to 10 to pick Rosen.