Startling Star statistic

[Matt_In_NH]

I am not really Startled by this.  Get off your Starship and Stop Stargazing and lets start by looking at the defense as a whole, they were 2nd, this guy played 46% of the snaps, he must have done something well?   Or maybe he is the weak link, not sure.  He did not have a lot of stats but in Stark contrast the bills defense did.  Sometimes I think people Stare at stats too much.  I dont think he is destined for Stardom though, he is just kind of a space eater.

[C.Biscuit97]

He gets paid $58,823.53 per tackle.  I’m not even mad.  That’s amazing. 

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, Jerome007 said:

I don't think anyone is saying having Star or some good DT is a bad thing! Just that in a salary cap sport, overpaying for a player is not a good deal for the team overall.

 

 

Every team is overpaying someone.  It's only a problem if in total you're overpaying too much.  The Bills have only one or two overpaid players, so they don't have a problem.  

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Every team is overpaying someone.  It's only a problem if in total you're overpaying too much.  The Bills have only one or two overpaid players, so they don't have a problem.  

Because they don’t have a lot of good players.  But you also need to be forward thinking.

 

most likely, when young guys are going to be up for big contracts, Star won’t be around.  But it’s not an excuse to get sloppy with money now.  And I think there are certain positions you should over pay for like o line, pass rusher, etc.  imo, run stuffing DT is not one of those.

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because they don’t have a lot of good players.  But you also need to be forward thinking.

 

most likely, when young guys are going to be up for big contracts, Star won’t be around.  But it’s not an excuse to get sloppy with money now.  And I think there are certain positions you should over pay for like o line, pass rusher, etc.  imo, run stuffing DT is not one of those.

I agree you never want to overpay, and Beane has been pretty clear he is not going to go on a spending spree.  

 

And yes, it's because the Bills don't have a lot of good players.  

 

But none of that means they got sloppy when they signed Star.  I don't know what his market value was, and I doubt anyone on this board knows either.  The only people who know his market value are his agent and a few GMs.   His agent did his analysis, came up with a number, floated it with GMs and found of his number was a good number or too high.   Maybe the Bills were the only team willing to pay what the Bills offered.  I don't know. 

 

Beyond that, there still is no evidence that either the Bills or anyone else in the NFL thinks the Bills overpaid.  The Bills know if they got what they expected and wanted, and if they got what they wanted, they're happy if they overpaid.   (By the way, I never heard any fans complain when the Pegulas overpaid for the Bills.   They decided what they wanted and they were willing to pay a price that no one else was willing to pay.  They overpaid and you'd have to ask them if they're okay with that.)  

 

The part we fans can understand is this:  whether the Bills overpaid or not, in the current cap situation, and given that the Bills' serious compensation pressure won't hit for a couple of years, and given Beane's conservative approach to free agency, Star's contract simply is not a problem.  

 

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

On 1/15/2019 at 10:05 AM, SWATeam said:

I don't really agree.  

 

I love what the Ravens do with Brandon Williams and Michael Pierce.  Beef up the middle makes everything else easier, IMO. 

This reminds me of what Ray Lewis said about his play. When the Ravens had big DT’s eating lineman Ray was able to be great. Look at the years without Saragusa(sp) and then Nata. 

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

This reminds me of what Ray Lewis said about his play. When the Ravens had big DT’s eating lineman Ray was able to be great. Look at the years without Saragusa(sp) and then Nata. 

You know, I hadn't put 2 and 2 together before, but especially during the first three quarters of the season, I was pretty critical of Edmunds because the Bills were giving up a lot of yards up the middle and often it was because Edmunds was in the wrong gap, was caught in wash, had taken a bad angle.  It may very well have been the case that Star was doing his job and Edmunds wasn't.  I don't know.  

[atlbillsfan1975]

23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You know, I hadn't put 2 and 2 together before, but especially during the first three quarters of the season, I was pretty critical of Edmunds because the Bills were giving up a lot of yards up the middle and often it was because Edmunds was in the wrong gap, was caught in wash, had taken a bad angle.  It may very well have been the case that Star was doing his job and Edmunds wasn't.  I don't know.  

If his coaches and teammates say he is doing a good job, I think that’s worth listening to more than Bill From Batavia. 

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

If his coaches and teammates say he is doing a good job, I think that’s worth listening to more than Bill From Batavia. 

Agreed. 

 

I enjoy talking about this stuff as much as anyone, but I have a healthy respect for all the things I don't know about the game.  The coaches and players are LIVING this stuff every day.  

 

What's funny is that we all watch and THINK we understand what's going on on the field.   I think what I and most people understand is pretty superficial. 

[Chill]

Star played well last year. He helped our run game considerably. Yes, he costs a lot but what top tier free agent isn’t expensive. 

 

Once  we have some younger talent around him, he will be even better. 

[Cash]

On 1/15/2019 at 11:54 AM, CommonCents said:

He is a dinosaur playing in the new NFL. Bring in Star? Audible to a pass, Oh Star is on the sideline? Let’s rack up some rushing yards.

 

Paying a one dimensional guy that much never made sense.

This is my biggest issue. Our run D was still pretty bad last year. I don’t know if it was because of everyone around Star and he’s blameless, but that seems dubious. Seems more likely that teams run like crazy on us for the >50% of plays when he’s out. 

 

I don’t have any major problems with the signing, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it be a Clay-type contract in a couple years. 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Cash said:

This is my biggest issue. Our run D was still pretty bad last year. I don’t know if it was because of everyone around Star and he’s blameless, but that seems dubious. Seems more likely that teams run like crazy on us for the >50% of plays when he’s out. 

 

I don’t have any major problems with the signing, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it be a Clay-type contract in a couple years. 

Could prove to be a Clay-type signing, that's for sure.  But the difference is that the signing of Clay contributed to the cap trouble the Bills have been in.   That is, signing Clay for too much money kept the Bills from signing someone who was more productive.   That isn't and won't be the situation with Star.  By the time the Bills are feeling limited by the cap, Star's contract won't be an issue.  

 

Whether the Bills overpaid for Star is an interesting question for some people to talk about, but it doesn't have much to do with whether the Bills are successful or fail over the next couple of years.   For example, if the Bills thought today that Star was a total failure, they could certainly go sign another guy (if he was out there) and put Star on the bench as a role player.   The Bills have the cap room to do that, because they aren't going to spend up to the cap in 2019.  They probably could even CUT Star, take the cap hit and move on without too much concern.   The Bills are in such an unusual cap situation right now that, given their plan and how they operate, whether they overpaid for Star is just irrelevant.   The Star contract doesn't limit the Bills the way the Clay contract did.  

 

Plus, I'm guessing the Bills are happy with Star and feel like they got their money's worth.   Every team makes personnel mistakes, because it isn't easy to do that job.  I doubt Star is on Beane's list of mistakes.   I'd bet that there are others that he'd like the Bills to have a do-over on, like Woods.  If he had Woods, the Bills likely wouldn't have gone after Zay, which means they could have found some guy in the draft to plug into another position.   

 

McDermott said a couple weeks ago that the objective is to have veteran leadership in every position room.  Kyle was the leadership in the d line room.   I don't know this, but I'm guessing they signed Star to be the guy when Kyle retired.   Hughes was the only candidate the Bills had to succeed Kyle, and Hughes brings some but not all of the leadership qualities needed.   I'd guess McBeane knew from their days in Carolina that Star was the guy to lead the group and THAT's why they got him.  And I'm guessing Star is doing just what they expected from him.  

[GreggTX]

Overpaid. He had some good moments, but he's still way overpaid.

[c-troop]

Man, we need to get out of this contract

[BillsFan4]

 https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2019-nfl-draft-misunderstanding-of-ed-oliver-pfn-film-room/

 

Quote

If you’re looking for a stable (pun definitely intended) position to stick him in, look no further than a 4-3 front. Luckily for Oliver, a 3-technique position could very well be his home for the next decade or longer. Many scouts believe it to be what suits his strengths the best. The best circumstance would be joining a stout nose or 1-technique defensive tackle to complement Oliver’s aggressiveness. This sort of personnel would isolate Junior. Something he wasn’t used to in college.

 

Sounds like Star and Oliver could be a good match. 

[eball]

On 1/15/2019 at 11:45 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Is a teammate going to say their teammate isn’t worth the money?  

 

Has Lorax given you the impression he’s a liar?

 

Amazing what armchair athletes think they know about the inner workings of a team. 

[Lurker]

On 1/15/2019 at 11:23 AM, ******* said:

Currently DT Star Lotulelei will take up a team-high 5.8% of the #Bills salary cap in 2019 after signing a five-year, $50 million deal with Buffalo last offseason. Despite this, he only played in 46.9% of defensive snaps last season & he played in all 16 games

 

Wait...are the Bills up against the cap?     So they can't sign anybody?     And in cap jail for the next few years?   Whoa.     

 

I'm so done with this FO....

 

Edited April 29, 2019 by Lurker

[todzilla]

32 minutes ago, c-troop said:

Man, we need to get out of this contract

Why?  Are we up against the cap?  He serves a purpose, and we have the money. And we will have plenty next year. He’ll be good with Oliver too. 

[Mat68]

Him and Oliver will be problems for defenses.  

[MJS]

Why was this ancient thread brought back from the dead?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

7 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Wait...are the Bills up against the cap?     So they can't sign anybody?     And in cap jail for the next few years?   Whoa.     

 

I'm so done with this FO....

 

FIRE THEM ALL!!!

*

Good to see everything’s back to normal around here...

 

 

[BuffaloBill]

On 1/15/2019 at 11:42 AM, Happy Gilmore said:

Lorax thinks Star is worth every bit of his contract since his (Star) play helps others make plays.

 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/01/bills-lorenzo-alexander-says-star-lotulelei-earned-every-bit-of-big-contract.html

 

"But Buffalo linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, who called Lotulelei “disruptive,” said that the former Panthers tackle was well worth it and is going to be a staple on the team for years to come.

“Obviously he (doesn’t play) a sexy position, but he allows other people around him to make plays,” Alexander said. “I’ve definitely been able to have a pretty good year this year. A lot of it is contributed to what he’s been able to do as far as keeping guys off me, allowing me to run free.

“In the pass rush, people can’t step up. On first or second down I know a couple of guys that have gotten sacks throughout the year just because Star has gotten that great push. He’s earned every bit of what he’s got with that five-year deal.” "

 

Leslie Frazier's take on Star:

 

“He demands a double team which allows our linebackers to run free and make some of the tackles that people might think the nose tackle should be making,” Frazier said. “That has been a plus for us, helping our linebackers to improve. But also to help our run defense. He’s done a good job of commanding attention from their interior, their center and their guards. It’s hard to block him one-one-one and that’s what we needed and he’s given us that.”

 

 

C’mon don’t let people who have facts and real insight come in and mess up a perfectly good set of opinions thrown out on a message board.

[Epstein's Mother]

8 hours ago, MJS said:

Why was this ancient thread brought back from the dead?

 

Because we're down to threads about what numbers people think drafted players will wear this year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/15/2019 at 10:23 AM, ******* said:

Currently DT Star Lotulelei will take up a team-high 5.8% of the #Bills salary cap in 2019 after signing a five-year, $50 million deal with Buffalo last offseason. Despite this, he only played in 46.9% of defensive snaps last season & he played in all 16 games

 

While true, I think this needs some context.  It's really not startling.

 

McDermott loves him his DL rotation.  47% is the 2nd highest snap count for the DTs. 
The only DT with a higher snap count was KW, 65% and I'm sure Coach would have loved to be able to rotate him more

 

That's also totally in line with Lotulelei's snap count when McDermott was his DC with the Panthers - 46% in 2014, 48% in 2015 when the Panthers had the #1 D in the league.  He had a higher snap count (and the Panthers a worse D) in 2016, but I think that represented McDermott's need, not his preference for Star.

 

So it may startle you, but it really shouldn't startle Beane who surely knew how McDermott used Star in Carolina and  talked to McDermott about how he planned to use him here before crafting his offer.

 

Edit: let me provide what I ask for, linkies

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts

Choose "All" under week and "DL" under position, but you need to know who are the DT and who are the DE to interpret.

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

C’mon don’t let people who have facts and real insight come in and mess up a perfectly good set of opinions thrown out on a message board.

 

Sorry, sorry, posted before I saw this

 

Can I add that the only reason 5.8% is a team-high is because Beane shed higher contract players and ate their cap penalties last year?  On most teams, 5.8% of the cap might only be top-5 or top-10.  Star would only be the 6th highest player on the Chargers or Eagles, 6th on the Jets etc etc.

[c-troop]

9 hours ago, todzilla said:

Why?  Are we up against the cap?  He serves a purpose, and we have the money. And we will have plenty next year. He’ll be good with Oliver too. 

No, quite the opposite. I just don't think he is worth the money, and his play will likely continue to decline while we throw millions at him.

I think playstyle and personality wise, Lotulelei and Oliver will not mesh well. He's essentially the opposite of Kyle Williams.

Also, I think keeping him around sends a bad message to our new rookie 1st round draft pick that you can play mediocre, yet as long as you're a 1st round player organizations will pay you top dollar.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, c-troop said:

No, quite the opposite. I just don't think he is worth the money, and his play will likely continue to decline while we throw millions at him.

 

And yet, he has exactly the same snap count that he had on the Panthers top SB-contending D in 2015. 

Perhaps that snap count is not a sign of declining play.

 

Perhaps you could defend your viewpoint that Star's play is mediocre with something besides his snap count?

 

Or perhaps not.  Please see Happy Gilmore's post above quoting Zo and Frazier on Lotulelei's contributions to the line.  Perhaps he is doing what is asked, and doing it well.

[RussellDopeland]

On 1/15/2019 at 11:23 AM, ******* said:

Currently DT Star Lotulelei will take up a team-high 5.8% of the #Bills salary cap in 2019 after signing a five-year, $50 million deal with Buffalo last offseason. Despite this, he only played in 46.9% of defensive snaps last season & he played in all 16 games

I missed this thread back in Jan.. I'm not just startled, I'm gobsmacked. I guess I'll need to take to my fainting couch any moment now. Maybe the pitchfork brigade can bring up this appalling matter with Beane when they show up at OBD to express their outrage over the Singletary pick

[c-troop]

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And yet, he has exactly the same snap count that he had on the Panthers top SB-contending D in 2015. 

Perhaps that snap count is not a sign of declining play.

 

Perhaps you could defend your viewpoint that Star's play is mediocre with something besides his snap count?

 

Or perhaps not.  Please see Happy Gilmore's post above quoting Zo and Frazier on Lotulelei's contributions to the line.  Perhaps he is doing what is asked, and doing it well.

Yeah maybe, and perhaps that's why WalterFootball had him ranked as a 2-star free agent in 2018.

I just think we could do better for the money we are spending.

https://walterfootball.com/freeagents2018DT.php

 Star Lotulelei, DT, Panthers. Age: 28.  
Signed with Bills (5 years) 

Star Lotulelei was a first-round pick in 2013, but never lived up to that billing. He has just been a below-average player for most of his career, but has played well enough at times to warrant a two-star rating. 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/star-lotulelei/7795

And PFF also has him ranked as an incredibly average big man, tagging him with a 59.9 rating 

Like you said though, perhaps he is doing what is asked and doing it well.


 

Edited April 29, 2019 by c-troop

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

STARtling... I see what you did there 

[c-troop]

and yo, the bills were one of the worst teams defending the run last year, so I don't really care what LoAx says about him. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/opp.htm

We allowed 17 rushing TD's and allowed a mediocre 1839 rush yards.

We also allowed 111 rushing first downs (lack of urgency) and apparently, teams loved running against us. (9th most rushed on team last year.)

The hyperlinks in my previous post are not able to be clicked anymore. Dunno why.

Absence of Kyle Williams is one thing, yet when you look at Stars production you can't say his lack of contributions arent partly why.

[ddaryl]

Nobody likes to pay the guy who does not put up sext stats.

 

Everything is peachy with Star, DT snaps, and our salary cap. 

3 minutes ago, c-troop said:

and yo, the bills were one of the worst teams defending the run last year, so I don't really care what LoAx says about him. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/opp.htm

We allowed 17 rushing TD's and allowed a mediocre 1839 rush yards.

We also allowed 111 rushing first downs (lack of urgency) and apparently, teams loved running against us. (9th most rushed on team last year.)

The hyperlinks in my previous post are not able to be clicked anymore. Dunno why.

Absence of Kyle Williams is one thing, yet when you look at Stars production you can't say his lack of contributions arent partly why.

 

 

teams ran on us more because our pass defense was number 1.

 

Star is a good asset to have and will come off the books just in time for us to extend or resign Harrison and Oliver

[c-troop]

 

 

1

4 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

teams ran on us more because our pass defense was number 1.

 

True and False.

Our pass defence was number 1 defending yardage, not TD's, we didn't have the most INT's either. 

There is a definite correlation with defending the pass and having the other team run on you more, 

yet Minnesota allowed less TD's in both departments and so did Jacksonville and they were 2-3 behind us in pass yardage allowed.

Is that just bad luck?





 

[ddaryl]

 

15 minutes ago, c-troop said:

True and False.

Our pass defence was number 1 defending yardage, not TD's, we didn't have the most INT's either. 

There is a definite correlation with defending the pass and having the other team run on you more, 

yet Minnesota allowed less TD's in both departments and so did Jacksonville and they were 2-3 behind us in pass yardage allowed.

Is that just bad luck?





 

 

Just a young team learning to play together. How much can we blame on Kyle losing a step, Rookie Harrison and Edmunds learning the ropes

 

 

[c-troop]

Just now, ddaryl said:

 

 

Just a young team learning to play together. How much can we blame on Kyle losing a step, Rookie Harrison and Edmunds learning the ropes

  

 

That's a good point, I didn't think about it like that. Yeah ok, I guess we'll see how the new guy in the middle and star mesh and hope we can continue to build on last years success. 

[ddaryl]

Just now, c-troop said:

That's a good point, I didn't think about it like that. Yeah ok, I guess we'll see how the new guy in the middle and star mesh and hope we can continue to build on last years success. 

 

 

I always enjoyed the big body that just absorbs blockers while guys like Oliver and Harrison penetrate and disrupt and LB"s like Edmunds get room to work. Yeah the money looks bad but IMO there is a cascading domino effect that is hard to measure unless you watch ever ounce of tape and know how to decipher it

 

then when that day comes its like money in the bank Star comes off the books and that helps us sign future studs when there rookie deals are coming to an end

[TOboy]

33 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

Nobody likes to pay the guy who does not put up sext stats.

 

Everything is peachy with Star, DT snaps, and our salary cap. 

 

 

teams ran on us more because our pass defense was number 1.

 

Star is a good asset to have and will come off the books just in time for us to extend or resign Harrison and Oliver

 

We were also behind a fair bit with our poor offense. Which helps the pass defense numbers and hurts the run defense stats, as teams were often looking to run out the clock in the 2nd half. 

[aristocrat]

35 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

Nobody likes to pay the guy who does not put up sext stats.

 

Everything is peachy with Star, DT snaps, and our salary cap. 

 

 

teams ran on us more because our pass defense was number 1.

 

Star is a good asset to have and will come off the books just in time for us to extend or resign Harrison and Oliver

 

the pats ran 42 times and 47 times against us. Smartest coach in the game attacked that flaw and smoked us.  

[c-troop]

1 minute ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

I always enjoyed the big body that just absorbs blockers while guys like Oliver and Harrison penetrate and disrupt and LB"s like Edmunds get room to work. Yeah the money looks bad but IMO there is a cascading domino effect that is hard to measure unless you watch ever ounce of tape and know how to decipher it

 

then when that day comes its like money in the bank Star comes off the books and that helps us sign future studs when there rookie deals are coming to an end

I agree, he's a contributing place holder. I think Star still has juice left in the tank, I'm just concerned about why so many analysts think poorly of him.

Yet he is massive and should continue to demand double teams, so I guess there is no need to worry.

[TOboy]

3 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

the pats ran 42 times and 47 times against us. Smartest coach in the game attacked that flaw and smoked us.  

 

Pretty sure that had something to do with the gameplan being focused around stopping Brady (which we actually did in one of those games). 

[ddaryl]

9 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

the pats ran 42 times and 47 times against us. Smartest coach in the game attacked that flaw and smoked us.  

 

Are you sure

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=401030789&wsVar=us~nfl~gamepackage,desktop,en

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=401030892

 

they ran 47 times the 2nd game for 273 yds game but only 25 the 1st game for about 76 yds. 

Edited April 29, 2019 by ddaryl