Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[BigDingus]

Not reading through the entire thread... No point in arguing anymore when it's clear that he definitely is inaccurate if you watch any of his games.

The fact that in the title it references specific years of a player instead of the player's entire career says quite a bit too.

Allen has had the same accuracy issues since he's been playing. If this was an anomaly of a year, sure, you have a point. But it's the same as the year before, and the year before, and the year before... That's a pattern. That's not a random bad year. He's playing the EXACT same way he always has. 

Unlike other rookies, if you took Allen's best year in college & had him repeat it in the NFL, he'd be a disappointment if he didn't improve. If you took someone like Baker Mayfield's best year in college & had him play that way in the NFL, he'd be an MVP. Look at Mahomes, he's playing like he did in college & was dominant. Allen's best year wouldn't sniff dominant, let alone top tier in the league. Accuracy is a big reason why.

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Not reading through the entire thread... No point in arguing anymore when it's clear that he definitely is inaccurate if you watch any of his games.

The fact that in the title it references specific years of a player instead of the player's entire career says quite a bit too.

Allen has had the same accuracy issues since he's been playing. If this was an anomaly of a year, sure, you have a point. But it's the same as the year before, and the year before, and the year before... That's a pattern. That's not a random bad year. He's playing the EXACT same way he always has. 

Unlike other rookies, if you took Allen's best year in college & had him repeat it in the NFL, he'd be a disappointment if he didn't improve. If you took someone like Baker Mayfield's best year in college & had him play that way in the NFL, he'd be an MVP. Look at Mahomes, he's playing like he did in college & was dominant. Allen's best year wouldn't sniff dominant, let alone top tier in the league. Accuracy is a big reason why.

 

Boy, don't read the entire thread, but at least read the OP rather than just the title 

 

I don't care about college careers. Allen is an NFL QB now, and now he's pretty much as accurate--if not more in a couple cases--than all the other 2019 rookie QBs along with the ROOKIE VERSIONS (I explain why I do this in the OP... go read it) of Watson and Wentz.

 

BigDingus.

[racketmaster]

I know the completion % argument is somewhat tiresome but here are just a few quarterbacks who also had low completion percentages early in their careers as well as less than impressive TD to INT ratios:

Eli Manning: 2004 - 48.2% and 6td to 9 int

                          2005 - 52.8% and 24td to 17int (Eli does not hit 60% until 2008)

Matt Stafford: 2009 - 53.3% and 13td to 20int (Stafford does not get to 60% until 3rd year)

Kurt Cousins: 2013 - (2nd year) 52.3% and 4td to 7int

Drew Brees: 2001- 55.6% with 1td and 0int

                         2002 - 60.8% with 17td and 16int

                         2003 - 57.6% with 11td and 15int

Derek Carr: 2014 - 58.1% with 21td and 12int

Alex Smith: 2005 - 50.9% with 1td and 11int

                        2006 - 58.1% with 16td and 16int

                        2007 - 48.7% with 2td and 4int

Andy Dalton: 2011 - 58.1% with 20td and 13int

Jared Goff: 2016 - 54.6% with 5td and 7int

Andrew Luck: 2012 - 54.1% with 23td and 18int

Mitch Trubisky: 2017 - 59.4% with 7td and 7int

Jameis Winston: 2015 - 58.3% with 22td and 15int

Ryan Tannehill: 2012 - 58.3% with 12td and 13int

Peyton Manning: 1998 - 56.7% with 26td and 28int

Michael Vick: 2001: 44.2% with 2td and 3int (2002 - 54.9%, 2003 - 50.0%, 2004 - 56.4%, 2005 - 55.3%, 2006 - 52.6%) 

Matt Hasselbeck: 2001 (first real action) 54.4% with 7td to 8int

Donovan McNabb: 1999 - 49.1% with 8td and 7int (2000 - 58%, 2001 - 57.8%, 2002 - 58.4%, 2003 - 57.5%, )

 

There are others but I think you get the point that it is not uncommon for young quarterbacks to struggle. The quarterbacks range from decent starters to hall of famers. I doubt Allen ever leads the league in completion percentage like a Drew Brees but every quarterback is different and has different strengths. Allen can extend plays with his legs and be accurate at the intermediate level then he should be productive. He can push the ball to all levels of the field so he should not be forced into a dink and dunk mentality just to artificially increase his completion percentage. Allen will only get better and the assets he brings to the table should be enough to make him a franchise quarterback with the potential to be an elite one for years to come.                

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, racketmaster said:

I know the completion % argument is somewhat tiresome but here are just a few quarterbacks who also had low completion percentages early in their careers as well as less than impressive TD to INT ratios:

Eli Manning: 2004 - 48.2% and 6td to 9 int

                          2005 - 52.8% and 24td to 17int (Eli does not hit 60% until 2008)

Matt Stafford: 2009 - 53.3% and 13td to 20int (Stafford does not get to 60% until 3rd year)

Kurt Cousins: 2013 - (2nd year) 52.3% and 4td to 7int

Drew Brees: 2001- 55.6% with 1td and 0int

                         2002 - 60.8% with 17td and 16int

                         2003 - 57.6% with 11td and 15int

Derek Carr: 2014 - 58.1% with 21td and 12int

Alex Smith: 2005 - 50.9% with 1td and 11int

                        2006 - 58.1% with 16td and 16int

                        2007 - 48.7% with 2td and 4int

Andy Dalton: 2011 - 58.1% with 20td and 13int

Jared Goff: 2016 - 54.6% with 5td and 7int

Andrew Luck: 2012 - 54.1% with 23td and 18int

Mitch Trubisky: 2017 - 59.4% with 7td and 7int

Jameis Winston: 2015 - 58.3% with 22td and 15int

Ryan Tannehill: 2012 - 58.3% with 12td and 13int

Peyton Manning: 1998 - 56.7% with 26td and 28int

Michael Vick: 2001: 44.2% with 2td and 3int (2002 - 54.9%, 2003 - 50.0%, 2004 - 56.4%, 2005 - 55.3%, 2006 - 52.6%) 

Matt Hasselbeck: 2001 (first real action) 54.4% with 7td to 8int

Donovan McNabb: 1999 - 49.1% with 8td and 7int (2000 - 58%, 2001 - 57.8%, 2002 - 58.4%, 2003 - 57.5%, )

 

There are others but I think you get the point that it is not uncommon for young quarterbacks to struggle. The quarterbacks range from decent starters to hall of famers. I doubt Allen ever leads the league in completion percentage like a Drew Brees but every quarterback is different and has different strengths. Allen can extend plays with his legs and be accurate at the intermediate level then he should be productive. He can push the ball to all levels of the field so he should not be forced into a dink and dunk mentality just to artificially increase his completion percentage. Allen will only get better and the assets he brings to the table should be enough to make him a franchise quarterback with the potential to be an elite one for years to come.                

 

 

 

Thank you.

 

Again essentially helping to prove the central premise that Allen is NOT inaccurate unless you consider virtually every other highly touted rookie over the last I don't know how many years inaccurate.

 

There are so many interesting stats here I think so many would just be immediately dismissive of, though.

Edited February 23, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[racketmaster]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Thank you.

 

Again essentially helping to prove the central premise that Allen is NOT inaccurate unless you consider virtually every other highly touted rookie over the last I don't know how many years inaccurate.

 

There are so many interesting stats here I think so many would just be immediately dismissive of, though.

I am assuming the negative-Allen response will be something along the lines that Allen has a lower completion % in college as well so his stats are more reflective of what his pro career will be. I don’t agree with that sentiment (Allen was a late bloomer and has been a developing player) but people will see what they want to see. 

 

Most of the qbs listed above have made huge increases in their completion percentages over the years so it seems likely Allen’s percentage will increase as well. 

 

Allen is at about 53% and if he is able to increase his to 59-60 he will be more than fine. His big play ability and running ability will make up for a lower completion percentage. His yards per completion will be on the higher end so it is okay if he has a lower than average completion percentage. Some of the above qbs have made 10-15 point increases in their completion percentages so it seems like a realistic possibility than Allen can jump up 6-7 points. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

You dont need analytics to see Zay is a bust and the entire WR group is awful.  You dont need analytics to know Allen git better as the season wore on and Foster started to play better. But you also don’t need analayics to know he turned the ball over too much, missed many easy throws, but showed more potential than any QB since Kelly.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 2/19/2019 at 11:45 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

It matters not because the inaccurate balls are more inaccurate it matters because it is unexplained inaccuracy. I can work on Sam Darnold's base, I can build better protection for Josh Rosen, I can even try and work on Jackson's mechanics (that one is a lot tougher). But if I have a Quarterback who throws inaccurate balls for unexplained reasons it makes it difficult for me to tailor my offense to that. And again you conflate completions with accuracy. Just completing balls is not always enough and we did this debate to death with Taylor. He left too many yards on the field because his completions took away opportunities for YAC. All completions are not created equal. 

 

Taylor's biggest problem was not reading the defense. He was either too slow to read the defense or failed to read it entirely. That is when he left yards and points on the field. That will also be the number one thing Allen and any rookie QB needs to work on. If Allen can improve on that alone, his accuracy won't be an issue. If he can't improve his ability to read the defense then he will need to improve his accuracy.

 

As i have pointed out in other threads Allen trended up big time looking at his final six starts compared to his first six games played. The only metric that did not improve was accuracy. But he became a better QB in all other meaningful metrics. It's a small sample size, but despite not improving his accuracy he improved his winning percentage from a 2-3 record in his first five starts to 3-3 in his last six starts. 

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, racketmaster said:

I am assuming the negative-Allen response will be something along the lines that Allen has a lower completion % in college as well so his stats are more reflective of what his pro career will be. I don’t agree with that sentiment (Allen was a late bloomer and has been a developing player) but people will see what they want to see. 

 

Most of the qbs listed above have made huge increases in their completion percentages over the years so it seems likely Allen’s percentage will increase as well. 

 

Allen is at about 53% and if he is able to increase his to 59-60 he will be more than fine. His big play ability and running ability will make up for a lower completion percentage. His yards per completion will be on the higher end so it is okay if he has a lower than average completion percentage. Some of the above qbs have made 10-15 point increases in their completion percentages so it seems like a realistic possibility than Allen can jump up 6-7 points. 

 

Absolutely agree with all of this, especially the ridiculousness of people merely pointing to what he did in college without first actually having watched much/any of his college play (which I admit I didn't do until after we drafted him) and especially disregarding how relatively inexperienced he is at the position (multi-sport athlete in High School who didn't attend all those big QB camps like most highly touted rookie QBs have) and how much of a late-bloomer he is.

 

Remember, Allen was a mere 6`3 and 180 lbs late in High School.

[transplantbillsfan]

13 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Taylor's biggest problem was not reading the defense. He was either too slow to read the defense or failed to read it entirely. That is when he left yards and points on the field. That will also be the number one thing Allen and any rookie QB needs to work on. If Allen can improve on that alone, his accuracy won't be an issue. If he can't improve his ability to read the defense then he will need to improve his accuracy.

 

As i have pointed out in other threads Allen trended up big time looking at his final six starts compared to his first six games played. The only metric that did not improve was accuracy. But he became a better QB in all other meaningful metrics. It's a small sample size, but despite not improving his accuracy he improved his winning percentage from a 2-3 record in his first five starts to 3-3 in his last six starts. 

 

Absolutely. Processing was Allen's biggest struggle, but you could tell it immensely improved after the injury.

 

As for accuracy, Allen's catchable ball % pre-injury vs post-injury was pretty similar, actually.

Edited February 24, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[LABILLBACKER]

On 1/14/2019 at 11:49 PM, Jeetz1231 said:

Damn man, kudos to you for putting in all that effort. I think it's going to take awhile to change the narrative of the national media because the book on him coming out was his accuracy and that is what the "Experts" are going to hitch their wagon to. As long as his numbers at the end of the day show 60% or below you will continue to hear them bang the drum about his accuracy issues. Until he can either start winning lots of games or significantly up his % you will still hear this argument. I personally would love to see his % tick up a few numbers but the narrative that he is an inaccurate passer to me is flawed. Again, great work, I appreciate the time you put into this. Go 

The bottom line is we won't know exactly what we have in JA until the end of his 3rd season. If he can show 2nd year improvement and approach 60% I'd take that as a huge stride. One thing that will always be in his favor is his velocity on "interceptable". Most dbs wont be able to catch those. 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The bottom line is we won't know exactly what we have in JA until the end of his 3rd season. If he can show 2nd year improvement and approach 60% I'd take that as a huge stride. One thing that will always be in his favor is his velocity on "interceptable". Most dbs wont be able to catch those. 

Receivers might not either.  That’s kinda of the point that some people are missing. No one questions Allen’s arm.  But throwing missiles all the time doesn’t work either.  I think the very underrated thing I saw with Mahomes is his touch on certain passes.  I didn’t see that as much with Allen.  

 

I know now how hard you worked to defended his accuracy but honestly, what would be the Vegas line be on his completion % next year? 55?

On 2/23/2019 at 5:13 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Absolutely agree with all of this, especially the ridiculousness of people merely pointing to what he did in college without first actually having watched much/any of his college play (which I admit I didn't do until after we drafted him) and especially disregarding how relatively inexperienced he is at the position (multi-sport athlete in High School who didn't attend all those big QB camps like most highly touted rookie QBs have) and how much of a late-bloomer he is.

 

Remember, Allen was a mere 6`3 and 180 lbs late in High School.

Aaron Rodgers has a similar background. He was smaller in high school, no big offers, went JUCO, and completed 66% of his passes in the PAC 10.

 

im playing devil’s advocate and I hope you’re right. But of Qbs drafted in the last 10 years, Allen would be an absolute complete outlier if he turns into a top qb.

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I know now how hard you worked to defended his accuracy but honestly, what would be the Vegas line be on his completion % next year? 55?

 

I'd predict Allen gets somewhere around 58-60% next year. 

 

He'll improve. But he won't be in the 65%+ range.

 

I just think he's always going to throw the ball downfield significantly more than most QBs.

 

8 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Aaron Rodgers has a similar background. He was smaller in high school, no big offers, went JUCO, and completed 66% of his passes in the PAC 10.

 

im playing devil’s advocate and I hope you’re right. But of Qbs drafted in the last 10 years, Allen would be an absolute complete outlier if he turns into a top qb.

 

Yes, Allen would be an outlier, but honestly, he already is. 

 

Can you find a QB who played at a small school against crappy competition and had a poor completion percentage who was drafted in the top of the 1st round--hell, 1st round alone-- who historically came in to contribute to a .500 record in games he started and finished, lead a couple 4th Quarter comebacks and a few game winning drives?

 

I had the same argument your making here as for why we shouldn't draft him. 

 

Statistically, he'd be an outlier.

 

I guess the closest example you could find was Rodgers. I guess you can say Cal is closer to Wyoming than it is Alabama as far as talent goes, but not by much. 

 

Here's the thing many people forget about that Cal team Rodgers was on. Rodgers had a solid to really good OL in his 2 years at Cal (4 OL he played with in those 2 years were drafted to the NFL) and had FANTASTIC running backs who were FANTASTIC at Cal.

 

Remember, JJ Arrington had over 2,000 yards rushing in 2004, the year Rodgers had nearly 65% completion percentage. And that same year was Marshawn Lynch's Freshman year where he threw in 700+ yards on the ground.

 

Ya think that running game and OL didn't factor into Rodgers' overall play and even more specifically, his completion percentage? And it didn't hurt that he was throwing to a guy in Chase Lyman who would ultimately be drafted in the 4th round.

 

Rodgers had some serious talent surrounding him.

 

Name all the drafted talent surrounding Allen in college...

 

He'll, name the comparative NFL talent Allen had to the 31 other NFL teams on offense his rookie year.

 

Allen played a lot of Hero Ball in college and even his 1st year in Buffalo... often for good reason.

 

I expect talent surrounding him is about to get much better.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/8/2019 at 8:32 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) you do realize Allen had a game this year where he completed 52% of his passes for 82 yards and 1 int in a win, right?  How in the world could Wentz have a worse game than that?

 

Here is that game where Allen completed 52% of his passes for 82 yards and 1 INT.

 

Interception and drive killer on what was an accurate pass--with pressure right in his face--that should have been a 15+ yard pass and continued the drive at least into a Field Goal opportunity.

 

But nope.  You cite that interception like it's meaningful as far as Allen's accuracy is concerned.  If that one pass alone were caught, his completion % goes up 5% in that game.

Edited February 26, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[Mat68]

Dont forget the Dumpster fire that was the Bill's offense in all but 1 game Allen didn't start.  Improve his weapons and I thinks his stats improve.  Last month of the season Allen was a top 5 Fantasy Qb for what it's worth as well.  With an undrafted rookie Wr and mid season street FA as his main weapons.

[GreggTX]

Josh does not have very good accuracy. Even on shorter patterns, receivers are having to adjust to poor placement rather than catching the ball in stride and in balance. It's true that our receivers dropped a lot of passes, but a good part of the blame for that rests with Josh. He is exceptional in other aspects, so I really hope he can improve this part of his game. I wonder if he doesn't need to break down his delivery and build it back up. Maybe he needs to sacrifice a little delivery speed for increased accuracy.

Edited February 27, 2019 by GreggTX

[GreggTX]

On 2/20/2019 at 4:56 PM, papazoid said:

He completed a league-low 64.6 percent of his throws that traveled five air yards or less and was off target on a league-high 14.2 percent of those passes, per ESPN Stats & Information.

 

 

The NFL's most (and least) accurate quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus

 

LEAST:

31. Mitchell Trubisky
32. Eli Manning
33. Josh Allen
34. Josh Rosen
35. Lamar Jackson

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/02/pro-football-focus-nfl-quarterback-accuracy-stats

 

Well, don't that suck when your QB ranks 33rd in accuracy in a 32 team league LOL.

[JESSEFEFFER]

On 2/20/2019 at 5:56 PM, papazoid said:

He completed a league-low 64.6 percent of his throws that traveled five air yards or less and was off target on a league-high 14.2 percent of those passes, per ESPN Stats & Information.

 

 

The NFL's most (and least) accurate quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus

 

LEAST:

31. Mitchell Trubisky
32. Eli Manning
33. Josh Allen
34. Josh Rosen
35. Lamar Jackson

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/02/pro-football-focus-nfl-quarterback-accuracy-stats

Well the little bit we see of the bottom of the list is consistent with transplantbillsfan's rather exhaustive study that concluded that Josh Allen's accuracy "issue" is totally  consistent with the accuracy "issues" of other rookie QBs both this year and of recent history.   None of this seems to indicate indicate that Josh has a fatal flaw accuracy problem, quite the opposite.   He is in the mix of typical rookie starters.  Either he improves or they move on.  Same for all the others.

[RyanC883]

I'm totally sick of hearing about Lamar Jackson and Rosen.  They are worse than Allen.  Particularly, when I hear that Rosen had a "bad supporting cast."   He has a HOF WR who is still productive, a great rookie WR, and a pro-bowl RB.  

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

I'm totally sick of hearing about Lamar Jackson and Rosen.  They are worse than Allen.  Particularly, when I hear that Rosen had a "bad supporting cast."   He has a HOF WR who is still productive, a great rookie WR, and a pro-bowl RB.  

 

Well amazingly the Cardinals GM was pretty non-committal about Rosen being the Cardinals QB next year when asked before the combine.

 

"...right now..." sure isn't a huge vote of confidence.

 

What a royal screw up that will turn out to be if they draft a QB #1.

[RyanC883]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well amazingly the Cardinals GM was pretty non-committal about Rosen being the Cardinals QB next year when asked before the combine.

 

"...right now..." sure isn't a huge vote of confidence.

 

What a royal screw up that will turn out to be if they draft a QB #1.

 

If I'm the Cardinals, and I think Murray is better than Rosen, I take him #1 and try to trade Rosen somewhere for a 1st.   Perhaps the Giants? 

[thebandit27]

Just now, RyanC883 said:

 

If I'm the Cardinals, and I think Murray is better than Rosen, I take him #1 and try to trade Rosen somewhere for a 1st.   Perhaps the Giants? 

 

I doubt you're getting a 1 for Rosen at this point; it's just not a strong endorsement that teams weren't in a hurry to get him last year, and the GM that drafted him is already looking to move on from him.

 

I also don't see the Giants, who could've had Rosen, but instead took a RB at #2 overall, giving up the #6 overall pick this year--a pick where they will very likely have their choice of the 2nd QB off the board.

[oldmanfan]

In the era of things like the Internet, cell phones, drive through liquor stores, etc, etc where we expect anything we want to be at our fingertips right now, I suppose it's to be expected that a team would draft a QB top ten one year and give up on himafter one season.

 

Rosen will be fine I think with time.  But why not replace him with a midget QB that could run towards MLB whenever he wants?

[thebandit27]

 

Their best bet for a trade partner would be a team like New Orleans or NE, where they are going for it all this year and can afford to let Rosen sit a year

[RyanC883]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I doubt you're getting a 1 for Rosen at this point; it's just not a strong endorsement that teams weren't in a hurry to get him last year, and the GM that drafted him is already looking to move on from him.

 

I also don't see the Giants, who could've had Rosen, but instead took a RB at #2 overall, giving up the #6 overall pick this year--a pick where they will very likely have their choice of the 2nd QB off the board.

 

will be interesting to see.  Barkley is/was a stud.  Too good to pass-up.   But your right, the QB2 this year is likely better than Rosen.  Perhaps the Jags, who need an immediate player, and Rosen has the 1 year of experience to step-in day 1.  Or the Dolphins.  That would be fun.  

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I doubt you're getting a 1 for Rosen at this point; it's just not a strong endorsement that teams weren't in a hurry to get him last year, and the GM that drafted him is already looking to move on from him.

 

I also don't see the Giants, who could've had Rosen, but instead took a RB at #2 overall, giving up the #6 overall pick this year--a pick where they will very likely have their choice of the 2nd QB off the board.

 

If the Cardinals are already shopping Rosen, no way in HELL do they get a 1 for him!

[RobbRiddick]

Here's a hypothetical: if Josh Allen was in the draft this year, would he go number 1? Would the Cards trade Rosen and take him, or would another team give up a bundle to trade up to number 1 and snag him?

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 3/1/2019 at 5:16 PM, RobbRiddick said:

Here's a hypothetical: if Josh Allen was in the draft this year, would he go number 1? Would the Cards trade Rosen and take him, or would another team give up a bundle to trade up to number 1 and snag him?

 

It's possible.

 

Both Murray, who is predicted to go #1 this year, and Allen have or were big questions marks as to whether or no they will work out in the NFL. But the elite skills are tangible for both.

 

Murray's college resume was elite where as Allen's was not. I think that would prevent a team like the Cards to move off of a former 1st round pick the year prior to take a QB like Allen. 

Edited March 3, 2019 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[transplantbillsfan]

On 3/1/2019 at 3:16 PM, RobbRiddick said:

Here's a hypothetical: if Josh Allen was in the draft this year, would he go number 1? Would the Cards trade Rosen and take him, or would another team give up a bundle to trade up to number 1 and snag him?

 

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It's possible.

 

Both Murray, who is predicted to go #1 this year, and Allen have or were big questions marks as to whether or no they will work out in the NFL. But the elite skills are tangible for both.

 

Murray's college resume was elite where as Allen's was not. I think that would prevent a team like the Cards to move off of a former 1st round pick the year prior to take a QB like Allen. 

 

Not that this is necessarily meaningful since Murray might replace a guy Jeremiah had graded out better than both him and Mayfield...

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/bills-today-how-does-kyler-murray-compare-to-josh-allen

“In terms of grades, now this is the grade I had on them coming out, not what they've done. I have Darnold with the highest grade,” Jeremiah said. “Then it was Rosen, then it was Mayfield, and then I gave the same grade to Josh Allen as my fourth quarterback last year as I gave to Kyler Murray this year. So they would be tied for my fourth, and then I would have Haskins would be behind them and then Lamar Jackson would be behind him. So that would be the order I have stacking those guys in with last year's class based purely off the grade.”

Edited March 3, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

I think Jeremiah and Brooks largely nail why Allen is never going to be tops in the league in completion percentage.

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/what-they-re-saying-6-observations-on-the-bills-from-the-nfl-combine

“I think Brandon Beane and that organization is going to be able to go out there and surround him with the talent he needs, that fits what he does well,” says Jeremiah. “In my opinion, that’s getting a track team. Some speed out there. You can run the ball, run the ball, and then with his arm he’ll get big chunks. You don’t need to have 12-14 play drives with Josh Allen—you can eat the same with one bite.”

 

...

 

“The best thing that Josh Allen does is he can throw the ball down the field. You have to find a guy who can be a vertical threat down the field and also be a chain mover.”

 

If you're throwing downfield, they're lower percentage throws naturally.  You can be an accurate passer, but if you're throwing the ball downfield a lot more than your peer group, your completion % is naturally going to take a dip.

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/28/2019 at 9:03 AM, RyanC883 said:

I'm totally sick of hearing about Lamar Jackson and Rosen.  They are worse than Allen.  Particularly, when I hear that Rosen had a "bad supporting cast."   He has a HOF WR who is still productive, a great rookie WR, and a pro-bowl RB.  

 

 

 

If I could give you 1000 trophies for this post I would.  Rosen had a better cast than Allen, yet Allen got more out his worse cast and Rosens team is giving up on it seems after one season.  

 

I would kill to swap receivers and RBs with the Cardinals.  And our OL was just as bad, just that Allen isnt a statue back there and turns on the burners to escape.  

[transplantbillsfan]

This should help...

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Ya know... this is the kind of cherry picking that's just irritating:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/antonio-brown-trade-rumors-conflicting-reports-emerge-about-potential-bills-trade-as-free-agency-nears/amp/

Antonio Brown trade rumors: Conflicting reports emerge about potential Bills trade as free agency nears

But from Brown's perspective, it'd be impossible to see the reported trade as a win. He'd be going from Big Ben, a future Hall of Famer, to an inaccurate second-year quarterback who looks significantly better as a runner than a passer.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Exactly Mr. Beane.... exactly...

 

Courtesy of @stevewin

AS – We know he’s a great athlete, know he has a cannon for an arm.  In your opinion where does he need to get better

BB – It’s his decision making.  I hear the accuracy criticism, I don’t totally agree with that narrative.  It’s the decision making – and what it is is Josh is so competitive and he’s obviously got the arm, that he tries to make throws that a lot of guys can’t make so they don’t try even try it.  That was one of the areas of growth that we ket stressing to him – is it’s OK to take the 5 yd check down and move it to 2^nd and 5 instead of trying to squeeze it into the hole 18 -20 yards down the field that’ just lower percentage.  There are times for those but sometimes you just want to possess the ball and keep the chains moving depending on your defense.  There’s times we’re playing a tom Brady we don’t want to score too quick, we ant to keep him on the sidelines.  That’s just a maturity thing.  I’d rather have to pull him back then him be check down Charlie and trying to kick him and ask him to drive it down the field.

 

[BullBuchanan]

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

[billsfan1959]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

No. It is not.

[thebandit27]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

 

Show us a few examples of this consistent fastball-that-an-NFL-WR-can't-catch tendency from Josh's rookie season 

[Gugny]

7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

 

 

[Scorp83]

On 1/15/2019 at 2:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

First off, about accuracy: why do we talk about it like it's an Olympic medal? As though if you aren't in the top 3 or top 10 or whatever, you're no good. That doesn't seem the way to think about accuracy at all. There's a threshold of success. If you're accurate above that threshold, you're good. If below, you're not.

 

Regardless, I figured examining Allen's accuracy in comparison to his peers would help determine whether he truly somehow has the severe accuracy problems portrayed by the national media. I only did the 4 other rookies with Allen, not the 31 other starters. Would anyone expect Josh Allen or Sam Darnold or any of the 5 rookies to be as accurate as Drew Brees or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers?

They're rookies. That's why the 5 rookies are my ultimate points of comparison. And part of the point was also anecdotal. Just looking at Darnold and Allen, you see Darnold just throw some real head-scratchers that wind up being tipped or batted. These types of throws I so very rarely saw with Allen that I just didn't consider them negative throws. Darnold showed that those throws should largely be weighed negatively, so I adjusted. Methodology for all QBs were the same.
 

Rookies in the NFL are peers who have the same short offseason to work and, in the case of all 5 rookies, spent the entire offseason as presumed backups, taking 2nd and 3rd string snaps. Allen was talked about and is still talked about consistently as the rookie QB who has a serious accuracy problem, not the other guys. I wanted to test that narrative with my own eyes, so before this post reaches the TLDR category for the impatient, here were the final %s I came up with after watching every single pass of all 5 rookie QBs, arranged from best to worst.

 

UPDATE: I'm starting to go through some previous rookies, too.  Primarily I'm focusing on the "good rookies," meaning rookies who were considered as having pretty good rookie seasons.  So I started with Watson, as you can now see.

 

Catchable balls excluding Throwaways

1) Darnold - 79.5% (2019)
2) Allen -78.1% (2019)

3) Wentz - 77% (2016)
4) Mayfield -76.6% (2019)

5) Watson- 75.1% (2018)
6) Jackson -72.7% (2019)
7) Rosen - 71.6% (2019)

 

Throwaway/Spike %

1) Allen - 7.1% (2018)
2) Jackson -6% (2018)
3) Rosen - 5.8% (2018)
4) Darnold - 5.5% (2018)

5) Watson- 3.4% (2017)
6)) Mayfield -3.2% (2018)

7) Wentz - 2.6% (2016)

 

Interceptable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes

 

1) Wentz - 6.9% (2016)

2) Mayfield - 7.6% (2018)
3) Jackson - 8.5% (2018)
4) Allen - 8.7% (2018)
5) Rosen - 9.1% (2018)

6) Watson- 10.7% (2017)
7) Darnold - 11.2% (2018)

 

Catchable pass % Excluding BOTH Throwaways AND batted-tipped passes

1) Darnold - 84.5% (2018)
2) Mayfield - 82.2% (2018)

3) Wentz - 81.4% (2016)
4) Jackson - 79.5% (2018)
5) Allen - 78.6% (2018)
6) Watson- 77.9%  (2017)

7) Rosen - 75.5% (2018)

 

 

Here's the breakdown.

 

Josh Allen

Total passes: 320

Catchable passes: 232

Uncatchable passes: 63

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 2

Interceptable passes: 26

 

Sam Darnold

Total passes: 414

Catchable passes: 311

Uncatchable passes: 57

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 23

Interceptable passes: 44

 

Lamar Jackson

Total passes: 170

Catchable passes: 136

Uncatchable passes: 35

Throwaway/Spikes: 12

Tipped/batted passes: 16

Interceptable passes: 16

 

Baker Mayfield

Total passes: 486

Catchable passes: 360

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 36

 

Josh Rosen

Total passes: 265

Catchable passes: 86

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 19

Interceptable passes: 34

 

Deshaun Watson

Total passes: 204

Catchable passes: 148

Throwaway/Spikes: 7

Tipped/batted passes: 7

Interceptable passes: 21

 

Carson Wentz 

Total passes: 607

Catchable passes: 455

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/Batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 41

 

 

I have game by game breakdowns for every QB.

 

Like for Allen, week 16 against the Pats:

 

Catchable passes: 9 (Foster slips on one of these attempts that I thought was catchable)

Uncatchable passes:7 (One of these is a back shoulder fade to Zay that he never turns for that I marked uncatchable)

Throwaways: 3 (one of these is the near Safety Allen escaped from and flipped the ball away to the sidelines)

 

Tipped/Batted passes: 0

Interceptable passes: 2

 

 

or week 17 for Allen:

 

Catchable passes: 18

 

Uncatchable passes: 6

 

Throwaways: 2  (one of these was thrown into the ground)

 

Tipped/batted passes: 0

 

Interceptable passes: 1

 

Part of the reason I decided to go through this endeavor was because I saw this tweet 

And then seeing this:

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/27/buffalo-bills-pro-football-focus-josh-allen-accuracy/

 

Kinda makes me think this is the reality

 

First off, let me explain my "methodology," so to speak...  I rewatched each "condensed" version of all of every rookie's games and made a judgment call on whether their incompletions were catchable or uncatchable.

 

That's it.  

 

No, I didn't do Coach's film, but I realize that would have been better, but also much more time consuming.  When there was a real question on a throw, gamepass has a slow motion option. This process took a few weeks to get through all 5 rookies.

 

I'm not judging ball placement, just whether the WR/TE/RB could reasonably have made a catch or not... even a great catch.  If he had a chance, I labelled it as "catchable."  If not, I labelled it as "uncatchable." 

 

Ball hits palm (or would with reasonable adjustment) = Catchable

 

Ball hits fingertips of outstretched arms or beyond = Uncatchable

 

That Clay non-catch in the EZ at the end of the Miami game is absolutely catchable because it's a catch you see NFL WRs and TEs across the league make frequently. It may not be Charles Clay catchable, but it's catchable.

 

I'm not making judgement calls on miscommunication or anything because I think that type of thing will largely even out in the end. So when I looked at the wide open Zay Jones miss in the back of the end zone in the Miami game--which we now know from post game interviews was a miscommunication where Allen assumed Jones was going to "sit" when he threw it--I labelled it as uncatchable. I saw one of those plays in Darnold's 2nd game that appears to also be a miscommunication.

So, my process is something you're obviously free to criticize, but I'm using the same process for all the rookies.

 

I tried to be as absolutely unbiased as I could be, but there's inherent subjectivity to this exercise. But do you agree that all (roughly) 35 of these passes are catchable?

 

 

 

And that's missing a good number, believe me. Remember Allen's interception in the Titans game that went right between Andre Holmes hands? Yeah... catchable... not Interceptable.

 

Now, on top of that, I also counted "throwaways" and "tipped/batted balls."

I also kept track of interceptable passes.  Each interceptable pass was also either a catchable pass, uncatchable pass, or tipped/batted ball for obvious reasons.  

I think it's important to discard throwaways when considering a QB's accuracy... and yes yes yes, I know that "ball placement is part of this equation, but that's highly highly highly subjective... much moreso than just whether a pass is catchable or not.

 

This is anecdotal, but I can tell you this, a huge number of Allen's catchable incompletions were targeting the liabilities of Kelvin Benjamin, Andre Holmes, and Charles Clay.

 

Oddly,  Allen's catchable vs. uncatchable passes were virtually identical between his pre-injury-absence and when he came back against the Jags.  I went back and double checked.  I think his decision making just got much better after his injury. I also actually triple checked about his very low tipped/batted pass numbers compared to the other guys. Also, I didn't track uncatchable vs catchable in terms of yards, (though maybe I should have for skeptics), from rewatching every single Allen pass on the year, the vast majority of his uncatchable passes were 10+ yards down the field. He missed some short passes that a lot of folks will cherry pick, but on the whole, his short passes were catchable. I think Allen's about as inaccurate as the typical rookie, but a lot more willing to push the ball down the field, for better or worse.

 

 

I think it's worth pointing out that passes where QB throws it to a WR and a DB steps in front to intercept it, but can't hang on, I'm counting in the category of "tipped/batted balls" along with obviously "Interceptable." Holy CRAP does Darnold throw a lot of those! These are the types of bad throws where maybe a QB just doesn't see a guy closing in that don't get intercepted, they just end up being passes defensed. This very rarely happened with Allen, but happened really frequently with Darnold.

 

The narrative seems to be that Allen succumbs to "Hero Ball" too much and takes too many risks with the football. I think there might be an argument to be made there up until he throws the football, but once Allen throws it, he appears to be the most conscientious of defenders in the realm of his intended target.

To me this idea that Allen is like Brett Favre--in terms of being a gunslinger--just doesn't hold water. Yes, he's consistently throwing farther than the other rookie QBs... actually farther than any other QB in the NFL. But he's not making a lot of risky throws. That's Darnold and Mayfield.

And while a lot of people look at those risky throws as indicative of better QB play, I'll give you these Next Gen stats of Aggressiveness %. Here's how it's defined:

Aggressiveness (AGG%)
Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness

Looks to me like being aggressive with the football is something Josh Allen is not, and that may not be a bad thing based on the QBs accompanying him on the list.

 

The work so many stress Allen needs to do in the offseason regarding mechanics and just improving as a pocket passer is Jackson ×100. Baltimore does some brilliant stuff on offense in order to get WRs consistently pretty wide open and/or providing Jackson with just a single read passing wise. If anyone reminds me of Tebow this year, it's Jackson, and it's not even close.

 

Mayfield, like you might expect--I did--was the best passer of the bunch. His 2nd half of the year was much stronger than the 1st. Damn does he get a lot of balls batted at the line, though.

 

Rosen was pretty bad. He honestly might get the David Carr effect long term and never reach his potential largely because of the talent around him, honestly.

 

 

 

 

I'll be happy to answer any questions about my numbers, but I would encourage you to try this exercise yourself if you have those serious doubts. But if I were to ask you if you'd be happy with a QB who threw catchable footballs 78.1% of the time, would you be happy?

For starters, I appreciate all the work you out in to this... surely, you didnt have to. But, appreciate it fully!

 

Out of everything you've point out ... you've also made the argument that he is inaccurate too ... 63 uncatchable Balls is alot... & is a main reason you can have a below 60% completion percentage.  Notice also that this stat wasn't provided with Mayfield, Wentz & Watson.

 

#ImJusSayin 

Edited March 17, 2019 by Scorp83
Typo

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

 

Using a Gary Vee gif tells me all I need to know about this conversation.