Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

In watching Rosen I never thought he didn't belong.

 

Again part of the findings for me in this exercise is that all the rookies look promising, except Jackson who's too much of a gimmick with an awkward delivery.

 

But all of them have accuracy problems if Allen does.

 

 

 

 

And I still think Fitz has gas in his tank. Not dead yet.

 

I think Larry Fitz is done. And I have loved him. One of my favourite players ever. He dropped more balls this year too and I think it is because in his head he is half retired. He should hang them up. He doesn't have to prove anything. 

[Foxx]

dang, i thought he meant Ryan Fitz.....

[Shaw66]

20 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You're right--though I think another argument to be made is that Allen doesn't have to be a 60+% passer simply because of what he does with his legs. 

 

But that's the other part of the point here.

 

Does the evidence suggest Allen's completion % is a reflection of his accuracy or does it suggest it's a reflection of his supporting cast, among other things?

 

If I were finding right now Allen's low completion % were a reflection of his accuracy, I think we'd all have a lot to worry about because I really don't think accuracy can be fixed to the point where you can turn a really inaccurate passer into a really accurate passer.

 

But that's not what I'm seeing.  I'm seeing a QB who's throwing the ball where he wants it to go and a lot of WRs/TEs/RBs who aren't coming up with the football.

 

And so I expect Allen's completion % to go up into the low 60s in the next year or 2 if Beane honestly goes about these next 2 offseasons as he claimed he would in surrounding Allen with talent.

I think what wins, and what the good coaches are trying to achieve, is something positive on EVERY play.   That's why the coaches told Allen last season to forgo the possibly downfield completion for the certain short throw.   They want something positive on every play.   Based on that, I'd say that his legs DON't make up for incompletions.   

 

I haven't participated a lot in this discussion for a couple of reasons.   I will say, however, that I agree with your conclusion.  I saw what you're talking about.   I thought he threw the ball reasonably well; I didn't see a lot of plays where I thought he just threw a bad ball. He had some bad throws, of course, but no more than most QBs.   And I think some of his "bad throws" really went exactly where he wanted, but he and his receiver miscommunicated.    I don't think he has an accuracy problem, although I think his accuracy needs to improve.  Especially on the short balls.   He hasn't figured out completely how to dial back his arm speed and to deliver the ball where it needs to be.  Sometimes he does it fine, sometimes not.   Whether it's footwork, arm motion, hip turn, I don't know, but I think it's an occasional problem, not a chronic problem.   That is, I think he fixes that problem simply with practice and better concentration at the time of delivery.  

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think what wins, and what the good coaches are trying to achieve, is something positive on EVERY play.   That's why the coaches told Allen last season to forgo the possibly downfield completion for the certain short throw.   They want something positive on every play.   Based on that, I'd say that his legs DON't make up for incompletions.   

 

I haven't participated a lot in this discussion for a couple of reasons.   I will say, however, that I agree with your conclusion.  I saw what you're talking about.   I thought he threw the ball reasonably well; I didn't see a lot of plays where I thought he just threw a bad ball. He had some bad throws, of course, but no more than most QBs.   And I think some of his "bad throws" really went exactly where he wanted, but he and his receiver miscommunicated.    I don't think he has an accuracy problem, although I think his accuracy needs to improve.  Especially on the short balls.   He hasn't figured out completely how to dial back his arm speed and to deliver the ball where it needs to be.  Sometimes he does it fine, sometimes not.   Whether it's footwork, arm motion, hip turn, I don't know, but I think it's an occasional problem, not a chronic problem.   That is, I think he fixes that problem simply with practice and better concentration at the time of delivery.  

 

I did not participate in this thread very much myself as I thought and still think Allen's accuracy issues were way overblown.

 

Was he pretty raw as a QB coming in - absolutely, he was a multi-sport kid who did not really blossom into a QB till he was in JUCO. From his interviews he said he was 5-11 as a sophomore in HS and regarding speed, when playing baseball he laughed and said his Spanish teammates called him La Tortuga (The Turtle) because of how slow he was. He was not some kind of 5-star football recruit for a big D1 school so of course Allen is a project - reasonable folks when judging Allen's performance should expect to see a talented athlete and inexperienced QB with a very high ceiling who is learning how to play the QB position at an NFL level.

 

To that end (on a steep learning curve) I looked for and saw clear progress game to game with probably close to the worst o-line and supporting cast on offense that I have seen the Bills field in years. He not only met my learning curve expectations, I had no idea he had the pocket presence he did avoiding the rush and extending plays, or could flat-out run past linebackers and safeties - bonus points.

 

I look for Allen, his QB coach, and Daboll this year to start improving his short game. I really do not expect accuracy to be an issue, his biggest challenges will be the anticipation that precedes good footwork, so pre-snap reads of defensive alignments and knowing where to go with the ball when teams are giving up easy completions underneath. He needs to continue to work on looking off safeties, but his ability to hit the home runs will always be there. If he improves on getting the ball out quickly on shorter routes it will help cover some of the flaws of the Bills o-line as they inject new talent into it and they need some time to improve as a unit and gel.

 

Rarely have I seen a rookie be expected to carry a team so much. To be fair to Rosen, I think he was in a similar situation Zona's o-line and offensive weapons are pretty bad too. That being said, I just don't see the level of "hope he fails" directed Rosen's way. 

 

I really did not understand the amount of derision from the talking heads like NFL's Rosenthal who's initial comments below were pretty bad. I expect some of that after a draft and they are paid to make those judgments. Then it got weird, and he stalked Allen throughout the year with plenty of comments and tweets where he seemed determined to try to prove his original negative bias and yet you heard nothing from him when there were games where Allen was clearly the best offensive player on the field and led the Bills to victory. It seemed petty and unprofessional to me.

Losers

Buffalo Bills: This season, the Bills used significant draft capital to trade up for quarterback Josh Allen (moving from 12th overall to seventh). The kids would call that hustling backward, especially when Allen has an uphill climb just to surpass previous Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor's level of production.

 

Josh Rosen has clearly displayed a more obvious NFL skill set. Allen is reminiscent of a souped-up version of another Bills first-round quarterback: J.P. Losman, a player with accuracy issues who was a star in the pre-draft season because of his measurables. Losman was taken 22nd overall in the 2004 NFL Draft and proceeded to compile a 10-23 record in Buffalo.

Edited February 9, 2019 by WideNine

[Shaw66]

52 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I did not participate in this thread very much myself as I thought and still think Allen's accuracy issues were way overblown.

 

Was he pretty raw as a QB coming in - absolutely, he was a multi-sport kid who did not really blossom into a QB till he was in JUCO. From his interviews he said he was 5-11 as a sophomore in HS and regarding speed, when playing baseball he laughed and said his Spanish teammates called him La Tortuga (The Turtle) because of how slow he was. He was not some kind of 5-star football recruit for a big D1 school so of course Allen's is a project - reasonable folks when judging Allen's performance should expect to see a talented athlete and inexperienced QB with a very high ceiling who is learning how to play the QB position at an NFL level.

 

To that end (on a steep learning curve) I looked for and saw clear progress game to game with probably close to the worst o-line and supporting cast on offense that I have seen the Bills field in years. He not only met my learning curve expectations, I had no idea he had the pocket presence he did avoiding the rush and extending plays, or could flat-out run past linebackers and safeties - bonus points.

 

I look for Allen, his QB coach, and Daboll this year to start improving his short game. I really do not expect accuracy to be an issue, his biggest challenges will be the anticipation that precedes good footwork, so pre-snap reads of defensive alignments and knowing where to go with the ball when teams are giving up easy completions underneath. He needs to continue to work on looking off safeties, but his ability to hit the home runs will always be there. If he improves on getting the ball out quickly on shorter routes it will help cover some of the flaws of the Bills o-line as they inject new talent into it and they need some time to improve as a unit and gel.

 

Rarely have I seen a rookie be expected to carry a team so much. To be fair to Rosen, I think he was in a similar situation Zona's o-line and offensive weapons are pretty bad too. That being said, I just don't see the level of "hope he fails" directed Rosen's way. 

 

I really did not understand the amount of derision from the talking heads like NFL's Rosenthal who's initial comments below were pretty bad. I expect some of that after a draft and they are paid to make those judgments. Then it got weird, and he stalked Allen throughout the year with plenty of comments and tweets where he seemed determined to try to prove his original negative bias and yet you heard nothing from him when there were games where Allen was clearly the best offensive player on the field and led the Bills to victory. It seemed petty and unprofessional to me.

Losers

Buffalo Bills: This season, the Bills used significant draft capital to trade up for quarterback Josh Allen (moving from 12th overall to seventh). The kids would call that hustling backward, especially when Allen has an uphill climb just to surpass previous Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor's level of production.

 

Josh Rosen has clearly displayed a more obvious NFL skill set. Allen is reminiscent of a souped-up version of another Bills first-round quarterback: J.P. Losman, a player with accuracy issues who was a star in the pre-draft season because of his measurables. Losman was taken 22nd overall in the 2004 NFL Draft and proceeded to compile a 10-23 record in Buffalo.

I think that's an excellent summary.  I think he's an enormous talent with tremendous upside.  

 

I also think it takes time to be really good in the NFL.   We saw Goff in the Super Bowl confused and unable to raise his game when he ran into some really good defense.   We can expect that from Allen next season, too.   There's no substitute for experience, and there's no way to get it except to be thrown into it.  I head one NFL QB who had a a good career as a starter say it took him four or five years before he really understood what was going on in the defensive backfield.   Allen's got a lot to learn.   

 

But I don't see accuracy as the problem.  I see being comfortable and focused on what he's doing, and that will come with experience.   

 

There's a thread here that I haven't looked at, something about Allen will compete for MVP in 2019.   I believe that is possible. 

 

I'm reading the biography of Belichick.   It ways Brady spent five years in college fighting and clawing to get into the starting lineup.  When he was a freshman he was pummeled over and over again by the linemen, and a lot of people thought he'd quit.   By the time he graduated, everyone knew he was incredibly tough, that he worked harder than everyone on the team, studied all the time, and he mastered their offense.   And he hated to lose.  Then he came to the pros and did the same thing.  Pennington said  after Brady almost brought the Pats back to beat the Jets the day Bledsoe got injured, he looked at Brady's face, and it wasn't the face of a kid who has happy to have gotten some playing time.  He said you could see in his eyes that he was pissed off that they lost and that he didn't like it.  

 

Well, McBeane wanted Allen because he has all the same traits.   Hates to lose.  Studies all the time.   Works harder than anyone.   And, by the way, he's bigger, faster, stronger and has a better arm than Brady.   

 

I'm already excited about next season. 

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think what wins, and what the good coaches are trying to achieve, is something positive on EVERY play.   That's why the coaches told Allen last season to forgo the possibly downfield completion for the certain short throw.   They want something positive on every play.   Based on that, I'd say that his legs DON't make up for incompletions.   

 

I haven't participated a lot in this discussion for a couple of reasons.   I will say, however, that I agree with your conclusion.  I saw what you're talking about.   I thought he threw the ball reasonably well; I didn't see a lot of plays where I thought he just threw a bad ball. He had some bad throws, of course, but no more than most QBs.   And I think some of his "bad throws" really went exactly where he wanted, but he and his receiver miscommunicated.    I don't think he has an accuracy problem, although I think his accuracy needs to improve.  Especially on the short balls.   He hasn't figured out completely how to dial back his arm speed and to deliver the ball where it needs to be.  Sometimes he does it fine, sometimes not.   Whether it's footwork, arm motion, hip turn, I don't know, but I think it's an occasional problem, not a chronic problem.   That is, I think he fixes that problem simply with practice and better concentration at the time of delivery.  

 

I still disagree about the legs.

 

Allen averaged more than 7 yards on any run, but he was over 10 yards on every scramble on a passing play.

 

Of course the coaches wouldn't want Incompletions, but Allen's legs do compensate some for them.

 

Cam Newton wouldn't still be a starting QB if that weren't the case.

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

I did not participate in this thread very much myself as I thought and still think Allen's accuracy issues were way overblown.

 

Was he pretty raw as a QB coming in - absolutely, he was a multi-sport kid who did not really blossom into a QB till he was in JUCO. From his interviews he said he was 5-11 as a sophomore in HS and regarding speed, when playing baseball he laughed and said his Spanish teammates called him La Tortuga (The Turtle) because of how slow he was. He was not some kind of 5-star football recruit for a big D1 school so of course Allen is a project - reasonable folks when judging Allen's performance should expect to see a talented athlete and inexperienced QB with a very high ceiling who is learning how to play the QB position at an NFL level.

 

To that end (on a steep learning curve) I looked for and saw clear progress game to game with probably close to the worst o-line and supporting cast on offense that I have seen the Bills field in years. He not only met my learning curve expectations, I had no idea he had the pocket presence he did avoiding the rush and extending plays, or could flat-out run past linebackers and safeties - bonus points.

 

I look for Allen, his QB coach, and Daboll this year to start improving his short game. I really do not expect accuracy to be an issue, his biggest challenges will be the anticipation that precedes good footwork, so pre-snap reads of defensive alignments and knowing where to go with the ball when teams are giving up easy completions underneath. He needs to continue to work on looking off safeties, but his ability to hit the home runs will always be there. If he improves on getting the ball out quickly on shorter routes it will help cover some of the flaws of the Bills o-line as they inject new talent into it and they need some time to improve as a unit and gel.

 

Rarely have I seen a rookie be expected to carry a team so much. To be fair to Rosen, I think he was in a similar situation Zona's o-line and offensive weapons are pretty bad too. That being said, I just don't see the level of "hope he fails" directed Rosen's way. 

 

I really did not understand the amount of derision from the talking heads like NFL's Rosenthal who's initial comments below were pretty bad. I expect some of that after a draft and they are paid to make those judgments. Then it got weird, and he stalked Allen throughout the year with plenty of comments and tweets where he seemed determined to try to prove his original negative bias and yet you heard nothing from him when there were games where Allen was clearly the best offensive player on the field and led the Bills to victory. It seemed petty and unprofessional to me.

Losers

Buffalo Bills: This season, the Bills used significant draft capital to trade up for quarterback Josh Allen (moving from 12th overall to seventh). The kids would call that hustling backward, especially when Allen has an uphill climb just to surpass previous Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor's level of production.

 

Josh Rosen has clearly displayed a more obvious NFL skill set. Allen is reminiscent of a souped-up version of another Bills first-round quarterback: J.P. Losman, a player with accuracy issues who was a star in the pre-draft season because of his measurables. Losman was taken 22nd overall in the 2004 NFL Draft and proceeded to compile a 10-23 record in Buffalo.

 

Amen brotha...

 

Amen

[formerlyofCtown]

On 2/8/2019 at 5:38 PM, Shaw66 said:

I undersaid and what you're doing and I applaud it.  And although you and others are correct that accuracy and completion percentage are different things, I'm almost not interested in knowing about his accuracy.  If his completion perception doesn't go up, he doesn't have a future. 

So if he is 10 of 20 but 7 of those 10 are 40+ yard TDs you dont think he has a future.  

Its a little exstreme I realise but the only thing that matters in the big picture is Ws after all football is a team sport where  the W is truly what matters.

 

With that said I believe he showed in the last game he could do it all.  My hope is that it becomes second nature to him so that it becomes consistent with no Cam Newton style regression.

[WideNine]

I think most of us can agree that it sucks to have a team in the same division as Belichick, but in a way the Bills can think of that as an advantage.

 

Iron sharpens iron so to speak.

 

If you wanted film to help your rookie QB see how opposing teams were attacking his tendencies or flaws in his game, I don't think there is a better, more merciless teacher out there than Belichick. Sure athletes have to have short memories and overcome failure, but those games should be gold to Ken Dorsey when looking for the best film to use to teach situational awareness, what an opposing team was willing to give up to take away something his QB normally leans on as part of his game habits, how to exploit those situations better, etc..

 

Sure Belichick will change things up and disguise things each time we meet up with that team, but I expect the scope of what he is able to do will become narrower each time the kid faces off with him. 

 

Teams like the Rams with Goff who rarely run across a coach on the opposing sideline who can really expose their flaws are at a severe disadvantage when it comes to stretching their skill set and it shows when they have to line up against NE. So in a sense, having rookie QBs who have not reached their ceiling yet (I feel this way about Allen and Darnold) play  in the toughest division in the NFL is a good thing - the day they get past NE is the day they are probably ready to face off against any defense in the league.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2019 by WideNine

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

So if he is 10 of 20 but 7 of those 10 are 40+ yard TDs you dont think he has a future.  

Its a little exstreme I realise but the only thing that matters in the big picture is Ws after all football is a team sport where  the W is truly what matters.

 

With that said I believe he showed in the last game he could do it all.  My hope is that it becomes second nature to him so that it becomes consistent with no Cam Newton style regression.

 

Yeah that's a little extreme, but I think it pretty much nails it.

 

Allen, I doubt, will ever be above 65% completion percentage.

 

He just throws downfield too much and the farther down the field you go, the lower percentage throws they are.

 

But if he can complete those downfield throws with relative consistency and continue to use his legs intelligently and efficiently, his future absolutely could still be very bright.

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

So if he is 10 of 20 but 7 of those 10 are 40+ yard TDs you dont think he has a future.  

Its a little exstreme I realise but the only thing that matters in the big picture is Ws after all football is a team sport where  the W is truly what matters.

 

With that said I believe he showed in the last game he could do it all.  My hope is that it becomes second nature to him so that it becomes consistent with no Cam Newton style regression.

Well, sure he has a future.   But is he winning?  

 

What I said, and I'm convinced it's true, is that what wins in ball control, and the way you get ball control is by making every play a positive play.   I mentioned somewhere that i'm reading the biography of Belichick.   Billy said that the difference between Bledsoe and Brady was that BLedsoe wanted (and got) the big play, but Brady understood from day one that a lot of completions are better than fewer completions for more yards.   Belichick loved that Brady's typical play went like this:  Look at first option, look at second option, check it down.   Belichick WANTED that, always has.   He wins by holding onto the football - positive plays and no turnovers.  

 

And I think that's true all over the league - the winning teams have high completion percentage.   

 

So, no, I don't want more yards from Allen.  I want more completions.   Sure, hit the deeper ball when it's there, but NEVER force it.  Check down, take 3 to 7 yards, move on the next play.   

 

We all saw it - if Allen has an accuracy problem, it's on his short balls, and if he can't complete the short balls he won't have a high completion percentage.   As I said, I think his problem on short ball is not some permanent physical problem - I think it's concentration, doing the things he knows how to do to deliver that pass well.   

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, sure he has a future.   But is he winning?  

 

What I said, and I'm convinced it's true, is that what wins in ball control, and the way you get ball control is by making every play a positive play.   I mentioned somewhere that i'm reading the biography of Belichick.   Billy said that the difference between Bledsoe and Brady was that BLedsoe wanted (and got) the big play, but Brady understood from day one that a lot of completions are better than fewer completions for more yards.   Belichick loved that Brady's typical play went like this:  Look at first option, look at second option, check it down.   Belichick WANTED that, always has.   He wins by holding onto the football - positive plays and no turnovers.  

 

And I think that's true all over the league - the winning teams have high completion percentage.   

 

So, no, I don't want more yards from Allen.  I want more completions.   Sure, hit the deeper ball when it's there, but NEVER force it.  Check down, take 3 to 7 yards, move on the next play.   

 

We all saw it - if Allen has an accuracy problem, it's on his short balls, and if he can't complete the short balls he won't have a high completion percentage.   As I said, I think his problem on short ball is not some permanent physical problem - I think it's concentration, doing the things he knows how to do to deliver that pass well.   

 

Oh I personally don't think you're going to get what you're saying here Shaw. Allen just isn't the QB who takes you down with constant 3-7 yard passes the way Brady does and I don't think any OC of Allen's would be wise to have that dominate the game plan.

 

I'm not saying Allen can't do it. I'm saying that's not his greatest strength. And you should develop gameplans to your players' strengths.

 

This is getting away from accuracy, but Allen's version of a crackdown a lot of the time is him using his legs. And those are positive plays for positive yards.

 

I just looked it up and Allen scrambled 40 times on the year for 412 yards with 15 1st downs, 6 of which were on 3rd down passing plays... he had 10 such 3rd down scrambles so that means he was 60% on such conversions, which is a REALLY good number for a 3rd down passer. Plus, he had 4 TDs scrambling.

 

With all of that said, I hope Daboll completely eliminates designed runs from our offense. Allen on designed runs vs Allen on scrambles is a different beast--10.3 YPC on 40 scrambles vs 4.9 YPC on designed runs-- and again, I really think it's because a scramble is the perfect checkdown for him sometimes.

 

But back to the accuracy thing, if he can run and use his legs wisely like in the way I just said, even a lower than 60% completion percentage doesn't doom him if he's throwing consistently down the field. Newton's MVP 15-1 Super Bowl runner up season proves that. But again, I don't think the way Newton's been handled--with mostly designed runs--is the way to go. But Allen should have the freedom to run while continuing to function with enough accuracy to be successful.

 

And right now, he already looks like he has enough accuracy to be successful.

Edited February 11, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[dayman]

Allen's biggest problem is he throws so hard our guys drop it. 

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, sure he has a future.   But is he winning?  

 

What I said, and I'm convinced it's true, is that what wins in ball control, and the way you get ball control is by making every play a positive play.   I mentioned somewhere that i'm reading the biography of Belichick.   Billy said that the difference between Bledsoe and Brady was that BLedsoe wanted (and got) the big play, but Brady understood from day one that a lot of completions are better than fewer completions for more yards.   Belichick loved that Brady's typical play went like this:  Look at first option, look at second option, check it down.   Belichick WANTED that, always has.   He wins by holding onto the football - positive plays and no turnovers.  

 

And I think that's true all over the league - the winning teams have high completion percentage.   

 

So, no, I don't want more yards from Allen.  I want more completions.   Sure, hit the deeper ball when it's there, but NEVER force it.  Check down, take 3 to 7 yards, move on the next play.   

 

We all saw it - if Allen has an accuracy problem, it's on his short balls, and if he can't complete the short balls he won't have a high completion percentage.   As I said, I think his problem on short ball is not some permanent physical problem - I think it's concentration, doing the things he knows how to do to deliver that pass well.   

I didnt say more yards I said more touchdowns.  Points win the game.  Not completion percentage or yards.  I dont necessarily disagree.  I think we need the short game to be a threat as well.  He did that pretty well against Miami.  The ability to do that needs to become second nature.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, dayman said:

Allen's biggest problem is he throws so hard our guys drop it. 

 

That sounds more like a WR problem. These guys are supposed to be professionals... catch the damn ball.

 

Regardless, if that's Allen's biggest problem we should all be encouraged because he actually didn't do that all that much.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

I didnt say more yards I said more touchdowns.  Points win the game.  Not completion percentage or yards.  I dont necessarily disagree.  I think we need the short game to be a threat as well.  He did that pretty well against Miami.  The ability to do that needs to become second nature.

I'd guess that if you talk to the best football minds in the country, the Belichicks and Reeds and others, they'll tell you completion percentage is more important.   I don't know that, but watching and listening to the coaches talking, I think winning depends on consistent offense..  I think they'd tell you that if the QB keeps getting completions, they'll get the TD anyway.  Maybe not a TD pass, maybe a two-yard run.  

 

In other words, over the long run, the incompletion you throw trying for the 40-yard TD pass hurts more than the benefit of the occasional 40-yard TD you get. 

 

Except when the game is on the line, when it's fourth and 17 and you're on your last possession, except when the game is on the line in those situations, the coach wants the higher probability throw.   

 

 

[Warcodered]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Oh I personally don't think you're going to get what you're saying here Shaw. Allen just isn't the QB who takes you down with constant 3-7 yard passes the way Brady does and I don't think any OC of Allen's would be wise to have that dominate the game plan.

 

I'm not saying Allen can't do it. I'm saying that's not his greatest strength. And you should develop gameplans to your players' strengths.

 

This is getting away from accuracy, but Allen's version of a crackdown a lot of the time is him using his legs. And those are positive plays for positive yards.

 

I just looked it up and Allen scrambled 40 times on the year for 412 yards with 15 1st downs, 6 of which were on 3rd down passing plays... he had 10 such 3rd down scrambles so that means he was 60% on such conversions, which is a REALLY good number for a 3rd down passer. Plus, he had 4 TDs scrambling.

 

With all of that said, I hope Daboll completely eliminates designed runs from our offense. Allen on designed runs vs Allen on scrambles is a different beast--10.3 YPC on 40 scrambles vs 4.9 YPC on designed runs-- and again, I really think it's because a scramble is the perfect checkdown for him sometimes.

 

But back to the accuracy thing, if he can run and use his legs wisely like in the way I just said, even a lower than 60% completion percentage doesn't doom him if he's throwing consistently down the field. Newton's MVP 15-1 Super Bowl runner up season proves that. But again, I don't think the way Newton's been handled--with mostly designed runs--is the way to go. But Allen should have the freedom to run while continuing to function with enough accuracy to be successful.

 

And right now, he already looks like he has enough accuracy to be successful.

I think using his running ability as a check down will shrink if things progress well in the next few years. A lot of the running check downs comes to a combination of being less comfortable in his short game and not having enough trust in his recievers which will hopefully improve as he works with them more and gets better ones.

[GunnerBill]

20 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

So if he is 10 of 20 but 7 of those 10 are 40+ yard TDs you dont think he has a future.

 

I think that is not a sustainable model for being a successful NFL QB long term. People can go back and forth on his accuracy... but if he is going to make it his completion percentage (not the same thing) has to improve. 

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is not a sustainable model for being a successful NFL QB long term. People can go back and forth on his accuracy... but if he is going to make it his completion percentage (not the same thing) has to improve. 

If you read all my post you will find I dont disagree. I just dont feel it absolutely has to be 60-65 %.  But you would need a great running game.  Trent Edwards had a high completion percentage didnt he.  The reality of it is that you likely need both.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

If you read all my post you will find I dont disagree. I just dont feel it absolutely has to be 60-65 %.  But you would need a great running game.  Trent Edwards had a high completion percentage didnt he.  The reality of it is that you likely need both.

 

Oh it isn't completion percentage and nothing else. Personally I think in this era you need to be a 60% passer to have sustainable success. The closest anyone can give to a successful modern era QB who is below that is Cam Newton and he is 59.7%.

 

 

[formerlyofCtown]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh it isn't completion percentage and nothing else. Personally I think in this era you need to be a 60% passer to have sustainable success. The closest anyone can give to a successful modern era QB who is below that is Cam Newton and he is 59.7%.

 

 

Good news is I think he will get there.  Cam also had a great running game backing him up.  Also on the RedZone you really need that short game.  Mt point from the beginning was if he could do that most games he would win because unless you are playing fantasy football the only stat that matters is W or L and the way to get their is with TDs and FGs while not letting your opponent get them.  But it is likely easier to do if your QBs game is well rounded.

Edited February 11, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[oldmanfan]

Let's say he throws on average 20-30 times a game.  The difference between a completion percentage of 52% and 60% is between 2-3 passes.  So if one or two receivers catch a ball instead of dropping it, or if one or two tackles make a block that allows Allen to make a throw and complete it vs. throw it away to avoid a sack, there you have it. 

 

I agree he has things to improve.  Touch on short throws, reading defenses, taking the short throw.  All these come with experience.  People need to quit assuming the kid is a finished product.  It gets ridiculous.  And people need to quit equating accuracy with completion percentage, because it's comparing apples and oranges.

[GunnerBill]

59 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Let's say he throws on average 20-30 times a game.  The difference between a completion percentage of 52% and 60% is between 2-3 passes.  So if one or two receivers catch a ball instead of dropping it, or if one or two tackles make a block that allows Allen to make a throw and complete it vs. throw it away to avoid a sack, there you have it. 

 

I agree he has things to improve.  Touch on short throws, reading defenses, taking the short throw.  All these come with experience.  People need to quit assuming the kid is a finished product.  It gets ridiculous.  And people need to quit equating accuracy with completion percentage, because it's comparing apples and oranges.

 

On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things.

 

As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question.

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things.

 

As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question.

I agree with everything you've stated except your first sentence.  People on this board have repeatedly used his completion percentage to say he's inaccurate, despite repeated attempts to explain why they are not the same.

[Mikey152]

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'd guess that if you talk to the best football minds in the country, the Belichicks and Reeds and others, they'll tell you completion percentage is more important.   I don't know that, but watching and listening to the coaches talking, I think winning depends on consistent offense..  I think they'd tell you that if the QB keeps getting completions, they'll get the TD anyway.  Maybe not a TD pass, maybe a two-yard run.  

 

In other words, over the long run, the incompletion you throw trying for the 40-yard TD pass hurts more than the benefit of the occasional 40-yard TD you get. 

 

Except when the game is on the line, when it's fourth and 17 and you're on your last possession, except when the game is on the line in those situations, the coach wants the higher probability throw.   

 

 

Reed is probably not a great name to throw out there, considering he ditched Alex Smith for a far more unproven (and aggressive) Patrick Mahomes...

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things.

 

As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question.

To me Josh Allen has a lot of similarities to Mitch T.

 

And Mitch T. looked much better in his second year when they actually gave him guys to throw to......I hope we follow suit.

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Reed is probably not a great name to throw out there, considering he ditched Alex Smith for a far more unproven (and aggressive) Patrick Mahomes...

I think you're wrong.  Mahomes completed 66% of his passes this season.   Smith was better than that only once in his career.   By going with Mahomes, Reed got the same or better completion percentage than he had with Smith, plus he got the rest that Mahomes brought to the table.  

 

And that's what I'm saying about Allen.   Get him to throw all the short stuff the team wants him to throw, and you can have high completion percentage, the same or better scrambling than Mahomes offers PLUS great downfield throwing.  

[Mikey152]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you're wrong.  Mahomes completed 66% of his passes this season.   Smith was better than that only once in his career.   By going with Mahomes, Reed got the same or better completion percentage than he had with Smith, plus he got the rest that Mahomes brought to the table.  

 

And that's what I'm saying about Allen.   Get him to throw all the short stuff the team wants him to throw, and you can have high completion percentage, the same or better scrambling than Mahomes offers PLUS great downfield throwing.  

2x...both seasons under Reed.  

 

In 2017, Smith had an air yards per attempt of 7.6, and in 2018 Mahomes was at 9.2.  It also clear based on their arm/skill set that the chiefs were looking to get more aggressive.  Completion % went down (though not a ton because Mahomes is clearly a better QB) and touchdowns doubled.

 

FWIW, Smith lost his job in SF for pretty much the same exact reason.

 

For ***** and giggles...JA was at 10.9

Edited February 11, 2019 by Mikey152

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

To me Josh Allen has a lot of similarities to Mitch T.

 

And Mitch T. looked much better in his second year when they actually gave him guys to throw to......I hope we follow suit.

 

I don't see the likeness to be honest but yes he did and hopefully the Bills do something similar and that helps Josh take a step too. 

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I think using his running ability as a check down will shrink if things progress well in the next few years. A lot of the running check downs comes to a combination of being less comfortable in his short game and not having enough trust in his recievers which will hopefully improve as he works with them more and gets better ones.

 

And also WRs not necessarily being open or immediate pressure he avoids via his athleticism.

 

I think Allen as our leading rusher is a terrible thing. But Allen gaining 500 yards plus or minus on the ground with his legs on passing plays that break down is just fine.

[transplantbillsfan]

16 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is not a sustainable model for being a successful NFL QB long term. People can go back and forth on his accuracy... but if he is going to make it his completion percentage (not the same thing) has to improve. 

 

It does. But not as dramatically necessarily as many would think.

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things.

 

As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question.

 

Well...

 

On 2/8/2019 at 6:37 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Even though I think your study is biased because Of the conclusion you want, I definitely respect all the work you are doing. So salute.

 

that said, Wentz has never been under 60%.  Even though he wasn’t playing with NFL talent ain college, with the coach who was Allen’s college coach. 

 

This guy definitely is...

 

On 2/8/2019 at 11:07 AM, LSHMEAB said:

Until Josh Allen's completion percentage is reflective of his superior accuracy. 

 

I appreciate your posts and your generally optimistic nature, but at some point, the completion percentage will need to rise to justify all the catchable/precision vs accuracy stuff.

 

and this guy probably is.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well...

 

 

This guy definitely is...

 

 

and this guy probably is.

 

Not in those posts you quote they aren't. 

[John from Riverside]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not in those posts you quote they aren't. 

Im probably the biggest Josh Allen fan here

 

And I still say we need Josh to take another leap in production this next year.......Im pretty confident that he will

[transplantbillsfan]

47 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Im probably the biggest Josh Allen fan here

 

And I still say we need Josh to take another leap in production this next year.......Im pretty confident that he will

 

Yeah he absolutely will.  173 yards passing, 53 yards rushing and less than 2 TDs per game out of the QB position simply doesn't cut it long term.

 

But those numbers appear to be a symptom of the bigger problems we had on offense in 2018, not Allen himself.

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Im probably the biggest Josh Allen fan here

 

And I still say we need Josh to take another leap in production this next year.......Im pretty confident that he will

i dunno. do you have a Fathead of him plastered to your ceiling like the OP does?

[John from Riverside]

5 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i dunno. do you have a Fathead of him plastered to your ceiling like the OP does?

OK.....maybe I am NOT the biggest fan.

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah he absolutely will.  173 yards passing, 53 yards rushing and less than 2 TDs per game out of the QB position simply doesn't cut it long term.

 

But those numbers appear to be a symptom of the bigger problems we had on offense in 2018, not Allen himself.

 

I'll take 53 yards rushing each game from my QB, as long as my running backs are kicking in another 100.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Foxx said:

i dunno. do you have a Fathead of him plastered to your ceiling like the OP does?

 

Speaking of which, how's that Fathead you have of me above your bed holding up?

 

Let me know if you need a new picture... I know how much you so miss me when we're apart 

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

I'll take 53 yards rushing each game from my QB, as long as my running backs are kicking in another 100.

 

 

 

Yes, but 173 yards passing per game just won't do.