Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[GimmeSomeProcess]

Duuuuuuammmmmmmmm great stuff 

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

No. The example you used proves that you need to hit FEWER aggressive throws to be as productive, as does the YPC stat I mentioned. If you are hitting more aggressive throws at a completion percentage equivalent to a QB making safer (less productive) throws, there's no question as to who is the better QB at that point.

I'll try to clarify the point for you. The more aggressive QB will likely have to hit more of the AGGRESSIVE throws than the average QB in order to be successful. He needs to hit fewer throws OVERALL. Very simple concept.

[GoBills808]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

I'll try to clarify the point for you. The more aggressive QB will likely have to hit more of the AGGRESSIVE throws than the average QB in order to be successful. He needs to hit fewer throws OVERALL. Very simple concept.

Yes, which is why completion percentage and YPA aren't great metrics in this discussion. 

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes, which is why completion percentage and YPA aren't great metrics in this discussion. 

They are terrific metrics. If the completion percentage remains stagnant or doesn't dramatically improve from 52, the YPA WILL have to improve significantly. If you're chucking it up all day and making more big plays than the average QB, the YPA will naturally rise even if the completion percentage lags behind.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

They are terrific metrics. If the completion percentage remains stagnant or doesn't dramatically improve from 52, the YPA WILL have to improve significantly. If you're chucking it up all day and making more big plays than the average QB, the YPA will naturally rise even if the completion percentage lags behind.

Nobody disputes he needs to improve his completion percentage. What I'm saying is that YPA is a function of completion percentage ESPECIALLY for a QB like Allen who averages high yards/catch, so if his completion% improves his YPA will also. They're directly related and since everyone agrees he needs to improve his comp% I don't see the point of looking at YPA.

 

My reason to bring up his yards/catch was specifically to address the bolded: if his completion percentage remains stagnant it is almost impossible his YPA will improve significantly. For Allen specifically they're tied together due to his high Y/C. I am not sure if everyone understands this point but I think it's important.

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Nobody disputes he needs to improve his completion percentage. What I'm saying is that YPA is a function of completion percentage ESPECIALLY for a QB like Allen who averages high yards/catch, so if his completion% improves his YPA will also. They're directly related and since everyone agrees he needs to improve his comp% I don't see the point of looking at YPA.

 

My reason to bring up his yards/catch was specifically to address the bolded: if his completion percentage remains stagnant it is almost impossible his YPA will improve significantly. For Allen specifically they're tied together due to his high Y/C. I am not sure if everyone understands this point but I think it's important.

Fair enough. I personally don't anticipate Allen becoming a high completion % guy, which is why I'm citing YPA as a potential mitigating factor.

 

The numbers I cited earlier were something like a 58 percent completion percentage with a 7.7 YPA, which would be fine. 

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Good work transplant. I have watched every throw of all 5 rookies too but did it week by week rather than in one batch and I haven't charted throws. My only gut reaction to where what I saw doesn't chime with your numbers is Lamar Jackson. I think those numbers present him better than my eye test would. I think he was considerably less accurate than all four of the others.

 

What I actually saw with Jackson was a whole lot of manufactured accuracy through an offensive system that moves him around a ton and gets WRs pretty wide open.

 

He has one of the most awkward deliveries I've ever seen... not as bad as Tebow, but still awkward.  I think it's going to be problematic for him moving forward.

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I don't think it'll ever go away.  Hopefully, he does improve in that area though.   think we're going to have to accept that he'll throw four or five balls per game that are woefully inaccurate (similar to Cam Newton), but he makes up for it with arm strength and his mobility.

 

So I think this is an important point to make, too.

 

Allen has more of those woefully inaccurate passes than any of the other QBs.  He definitely has some real head-scratchers.

 

But those throws still don't happen all that often.  And when he's woefully inaccurate, it's usually a pass that just ends up in no-man's land instead of a DB's arms.  

 

But how much does it really matter if you have, for example, 2 QBs who throw 30 passes.  QB#1 throws 25 into the WR's hands, 3 just out of reach of his outstretched arms and 2 throws end up 5 yards away.  QB #2 throws 23 into the WR's hands and 7 just out of reach of his outstretched arms.

 

QB#1 might have those twitter worthy WTF throws you can point to, but was he really less accurate?

[Socal-805]

 

 

And exactly how are we going to debunk the TD/INT ratio myth of Josh Allen?

 

 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Socal-805

[Nextmanup]

12 hours ago, Jeetz1231 said:

Damn man, kudos to you for putting in all that effort. I think it's going to take awhile to change the narrative of the national media because the book on him coming out was his accuracy and that is what the "Experts" are going to hitch their wagon to. As long as his numbers at the end of the day show 60% or below you will continue to hear them bang the drum about his accuracy issues. Until he can either start winning lots of games or significantly up his % you will still hear this argument. I personally would love to see his % tick up a few numbers but the narrative that he is an inaccurate passer to me is flawed. Again, great work, I appreciate the time you put into this. Go Bills!

Allen's accuracy issues are not a "narrative".  They're real! 

 

Wait 'til next year when the honeymoon ends and expectations rise.

 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

Hey, Transplant, thanks for doing this.  It's really a great piece of work.  

 

People probably have challenged it one basis or another, and I'm sure there is some fine tuning that could be done to make everything more, uh, accurate.   But I would be very surprised if what you've done is far off the mark.   A couple of comments.

 

Your very first point is excellent.   Accuracy in the NFL is very much pass/fail - either you're accurate enough or you aren't, you make the grade or you don't.   Are some people more accurate that others?  Sure, but that isn't the point.  The point is are you good enough for the NFL, and is you OVERALL package really good.   Put another way, you can grade all kinds of QB skillsets - accuracy, ball handling, pre-snap recognition, pocket presence, scrambling - all kinds of stuff.  Every successful QB is better in some categories than in others, but the fact that they are weaker in some category doesn't mean they're bad quarterbacks.  Brady is a pretty bad scrambler, but no one is saying he can't play QB in the NFL.   What IS necessary, as you say, is that you have to meet the minimum in every category.   Beyond that, you need to be really good in enough categories so that the total package is really good, even if one category is weak.  

 

None of that means you don't work to improve weaknesses; it just means that being weak in an area is somehow fatal.  

 

Second, your analysis confirms what I saw.  Sure, Allen threw some inaccurate passes and sure, he threw some ugly interceptions.  What I saw was a guy who threw most balls easily within the receiver's catch radius and a guy who threw some really accurate balls.  I'm sure, for example, that someone on this forum must have asked all the accuracy critics what they thought of Allen's TD throw in the left flat.  That's a throw the announcers would absolutely rave about if Brady or Brees threw it.  EJ could have thrown that ball anywhere, but you can count on Allen to make that throw pretty regularly.  

 

I watched KC this weekend for some of the game.  While I was watching, Mahomes threw three or four pretty ugly balls to open receivers.  It happens.  

 

What I expect is going to happen is that Allen's stats are going to make a big jump next season.  It'll be clear in the stats.  His completion percentage, his passer rating both will go up a lot.   People are going to be saying that Allen worked really hard in the off-season to improve his accuracy.   I don't think any of that will be true.   His numbers are going to go up because (1) he has a full off-season to study and practice, (2) he gets virtually ALL the first-team reps starting with off-season workouts, (3) he has better receivers, (4) he has a better offensive line and (5) he has a year's experience in the league.  In other words, what I expect is going to happen is that we, the serious fans, will see more or less the same QB in 2019 as in 2018.   Yeah, he'll make a few passes here and there that he missed as a rookie.  And yes, he'll be better at the line of scrimmage because of the experience he now has.  But mostly he's going to be better because he has a better team around him, both on offense and on defense.

 

It's what McDermott calls "complementary football."  As each guy at each position improves, it also improves the guys around him.    And as his team (offense, defense or special teams) gets better because he improved, the other teams get better, too.  The attitude is to always be driven by the notion that "if I get better, the whole team gets better and that's what I want."

[RobbRiddick]

I appreciate the original post because it showed a lot of research and thought, but I do wonder why people get so annoyed by the whole "Josh is inaccurate" rhetoric. Who really gives a *****? 

 

The only thing that matters is whether you're excited about the immediate future of the franchise because, God knows, there have been plenty of offseasons since the turn of the millennium when I've had little to no interest in what this team does.

 

When Tyrod was QB there were plenty in the media who were constantly singing his praises but that didn't make a bit of difference to the way I perceived him or how I viewed the hopes of the team with him at the helm. 

 

Now that Allen is the QB I'm frothing at the mouth to get the offseason started (just need to get these pesky three games out the way first - I refuse to count the Pro Bowl as a game). So what if the media ***** on Allen? As I just said, they're the same media who said we were crazy about letting Tyrod go, so that pretty much discounts their opinion immediately. It also shows that they form their opinions almost entirely from box scores and three minute highlights of games.

[Shaw66]

56 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Fair enough. I personally don't anticipate Allen becoming a high completion % guy, which is why I'm citing YPA as a potential mitigating factor.

 

The numbers I cited earlier were something like a 58 percent completion percentage with a 7.7 YPA, which would be fine. 

Hey, guys, I know I'm jumping late, but I think this is an interesting point, and I have a slightly different take.

 

I believe the Bills admitted later in the season that they were working on Allen to check down more often, despite the fact that Allen was hitting on a lot downfield.  The Bills' philosophy is to make every play a positive play, every play.   And the way to do that is to take the high percentage pass.   We saw Allen do it a few times late in the season. 

 

If I'm right about that, then the Bills fully expect that when Allen checks down as much as they want, his completion percentage will go up and his yards per catch will go down.  In other words, I think the Bills will trade some yards on big plays for success on more plays.  

 

That means a lot of the individual stats are less important than we think.   In other words, piling up a lot of yards isn't the most important thing.  

Edited January 15, 2019 by Shaw66

[GunnerBill]

58 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

What I actually saw with Jackson was a whole lot of manufactured accuracy through an offensive system that moves him around a ton and gets WRs pretty wide open.

 

He has one of the most awkward deliveries I've ever seen... not as bad as Tebow, but still awkward.  I think it's going to be problematic for him moving forward.

 

Even those balls he is completing to wide open receivers are inaccurate. All the other 4 have had more accurate balls fall incomplete than many of Jackson's completions. 

[transplantbillsfan]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Even those balls he is completing to wide open receivers are inaccurate. All the other 4 have had more accurate balls fall incomplete than many of Jackson's completions. 

 

You could argue they're inaccurate, but I wasn't judging ball placement, just whether they were catchable.

 

All of his completions were catchable, regardless of ball placement.

 

I don't disagree with your assessment, but judging "catchable vs. uncatchable" is, I feel, significantly less subjective than something like ball placement.

[oldmanfan]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Even those balls he is completing to wide open receivers are inaccurate. All the other 4 have had more accurate balls fall incomplete than many of Jackson's completions. 

That is the difference between accuracy and precision.  If the throw is within the catch radius it is accurate, but may not be precise.  Really good throws are both.

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

That is the difference between accuracy and precision.  If the throw is within the catch radius it is accurate, but may not be precise.  Really good throws are both.

Isn't precision hitting close to the same spot every time?

[oldmanfan]

19 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Isn't precision hitting close to the same spot every time?

The classic way to explain it is the dartboard.  Say you're throwing darts and want to hit the bulls eye.  If you don't hit the bulls eye with ten throws but they closely surround the bulls eye, you're accurate.  But you're not precise because your throws aren't hitting the same spot consistently.  Now let's say your ten darts all hit the exact same spot, but that spot is three inches away from the bulls eye.  Now you're very precise, but your accuracy is bad.

 

What the OPs data suggests is that Allen is accurate, but that he could stand to be more precise.  Really good QBs are both.  They put the ball not only in the receiver's catch radius (accurate) but put in on a specific spot within that catch radius where the receiver can make a play (precision).  When one talks about fitting a ball into a tight window, that's a throw that is both accurate AND precise.  Allen needs to be more precise so his receivers get the ball in stride and make YAC, as an example.

[GreggTX]

Accuracy is the single most important attribute of an NFL QB. Period. I'll grant you that it is not the only one or even the only necessary one for success, but that's just the way it is and Allen does not have accuracy. You either wake up with that or you don't and Josh doesn't. Sorry.

 

Call it "precision" or "accuracy". Whatever you like. He throws off target even when receivers are just a few feet away. On deep throws, he often missed by several yards. He forces receivers to adjust to the ball and make difficult catches and often robs them of the ability to make more RAC yards. Flame away all you want. I'm just telling it like it is.

Edited January 15, 2019 by GreggTX

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The classic way to explain it is the dartboard.  Say you're throwing darts and want to hit the bulls eye.  If you don't hit the bulls eye with ten throws but they closely surround the bulls eye, you're accurate.  But you're not precise because your throws aren't hitting the same spot consistently.  Now let's say your ten darts all hit the exact same spot, but that spot is three inches away from the bulls eye.  Now you're very precise, but your accuracy is bad.

 

What the OPs data suggests is that Allen is accurate, but that he could stand to be more precise.  Really good QBs are both.  They put the ball not only in the receiver's catch radius (accurate) but put in on a specific spot within that catch radius where the receiver can make a play (precision).  When one talks about fitting a ball into a tight window, that's a throw that is both accurate AND precise.  Allen needs to be more precise so his receivers get the ball in stride and make YAC, as an example.

I don't know I think accuracy is making that throw and precision is making it consistently or I suppose missing in the same way.