Article - Making a case for Josh Allen as the NFL's best rookie quarterback over Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson

[GoBills808]

34 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Allen does rank 19th in Total QBR once you adjust for his rushing. He's dead last if you isolate his passing plays, and that's taking into account drops, throwaways, type of throws, etc. I'm generally not a fan of all-in-one statistics because they're overly ambitious and just not a good way to make an argument in isolation. That's one of the reasons why I went through an entire game's worth of throws to help present better evidence. 

Then why bring it up?

[Troll Toll]

Who would you rather gameplan against, Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield? With Allen the whole field is open to be attacked on every single down.

 

To put the supporting cast in perspective, I bet if we split Josh Allen out at WR he would instantly be our best WR. How many other QBs could you say that about? He’s already our best rusher.

 

Josh is finding success with probably the worst offensive supporting cast in Buffalo in decades. Get him some tall deep threats and he’ll start throwing for 400 yards. It blows my mind that people can’t see how good he already is. We’ve watched QBs that couldn’t connect on wide open passes for 20 years. We finally have a guy threading needles and people say he isn’t accurate. Do you really want to see him check down to the RB 20 times a game like past QBs to boost his completion % while going 3 and out? 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2018 by Troll Toll

[JerseyBills]

Just now, Troll Toll said:

Who would you rather gameplan against, Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield? With Allen the whole field is open to be attacked on every single down.

 

To put the supporting cast in perspective, I bet if we split Josh Allen out at WR he would instantly be our best WR. How many other QBs could you say that about? He’s already our best rusher.

 

Josh is finding success with probably the worst offensive supporting cast in Buffalo in decades. Get him some tall deep threats and he’ll start throwing for 400 yards. It blows my mind that people can’t see how good he already is. We’ve watched QBs that couldn’t connect on wide open passes for 20 years. We finally have a guy threading needles and people say he isn’t accurate. Do you really want to see him check down to the RB 20 times a game like past QBs? 

 

 

Great points. Hes a tank, stiff arming DTs and DEs and can literally throw to any part of the field from any spot on the field. 

 

He's going to be a nightmare to prepare for with an improved oL. Totally different beast than Baker , and give him a run game on top of that? The O would be deadly. 

Next year we are instant contenders. 

[VW82]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Then why bring it up?

Because it's fine alongside other quantitative evidence. It's not like just because I don't always think ESPN QBR matches the eye test that means it's useless. They're the ones actually compiling real data and analyzing it. It's worth something alongside traditional QB rating, raw completion percentage, and the type of analysis I did. None of them are perfect, but all have value. Interesting that all four say he isn't accurate / good at passing for whatever reason. It's only when you consider what he's doing running the ball where he performs well on the whole.  

[Stank_Nasty]

So far in the last couple weeks I’ve seen actual former nfl qb’s(Quinn and Simms) talk about the lack of team around Allen and how impressive he’s actually been. Meanwhile on this board I see armchair qb’s telling us all how awful he’s been. Heck, some “fans” (jrober) even fabricating lies about certain throws, and where they ended up, to keep the narrative going.... Really solid stuff. SOLID.  

 

S. M. H. 

[PolishPrince]

51 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

I didn't miss anything. Higgins dropped a wide open 30 yard TD last week. Chubb made a crazy catch for sure.

You are still missing it. For every drop there is a fantastic catch for most teams.... Bills dropping wide open easy passes, and never making the great catches. 

[cle23]

8 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

You are still missing it. For every drop there is a fantastic catch for most teams.... Bills dropping wide open easy passes, and never making the great catches. 

 

No, you are delusional if you think teams are making crazy catches left and right. I can think of 2 catches like that for Cleveland this year.  Chubb, and Landry against the Jets. They are showing 16 drops this year. 

 

Cleveland has a better supporting cast, but it isn't like they are All Pro at all these positions.  Landry is very good. Higgins is good for 25 - 30 yards a game. Callaway is boom or bust. Njoku is crazy talented, but drops a lot of passes and couldn't block me. We are playing Perriman, a complete bust in Baltimore, a lot of meaningful snaps. 

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Cleveland has a lot better talent around Mayfield than what is around Allen.  There isnt a single player at any skill position that would start in Cleveland over who is there now.  McCory would not start over Chubb.  None of our WR's would start over any of their starters.  Clay wouldn't start over Njoku.  And their offensive line is better than ours too.  

 

You cant just compare QB's without weighing the pieces around them.  And Mayfield isn't having to account for 85% of the offensive production himself like Allen has had to the last 3 weeks.  

 

I like Mayfield a lot, so not taking anything away from him.  But its not really a fair comparison in terms of what Mayfield has to work with and what Allen has to work with.  

 

I like Mayfield a lot and he is the better QB right now. He also started 5 years in college so he should be. They are both going to be good in 3 years but we won’t know who will be better until that time. I think Allen is going to make a huge jump between year 1 and year 2.

10 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

No, you are delusional if you think teams are making crazy catches left and right. I can think of 2 catches like that for Cleveland this year.  Chubb, and Landry against the Jets. They are showing 16 drops this year. 

 

Cleveland has a better supporting cast, but it isn't like they are All Pro at all these positions.  Landry is very good. Higgins is good for 25 - 30 yards a game. Callaway is boom or bust. Njoku is crazy talented, but drops a lot of passes and couldn't block me. We are playing Perriman, a complete bust in Baltimore, a lot of meaningful snaps. 

 

Their skill positions aren’t great but their oline is way better than ours.

[Green Lightning]

If I could have my pick of the four quarterbacks in the draft again I would still go Mayfield number 1. He clearly is the better quarterback at this point. I think he's got a huge upside. As far as the other 3, including Josh, I don't think I would change what happened in a draft.  I like Josh's upside and the other 2 haven't  even impressive, however those were two big time drives by Darnold Sunday.

[cle23]

7 minutes ago, billspro said:

Their skill positions aren’t great but their oline is way better than ours.

 

Watch Mayfield maneuver the pocket. It's amazing.  The oline in Cleveland has been much better since Jackson was fired, but we have started a 285lbs UDFA rookie at LT, and complete bust Greg Robinson at LT. The middle 3 are great, but our tackles are very weak.

[billspro]

15 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

Watch Mayfield maneuver the pocket. It's amazing.  The oline in Cleveland has been much better since Jackson was fired, but we have started a 285lbs UDFA rookie at LT, and complete bust Greg Robinson at LT. The middle 3 are great, but our tackles are very weak.

 

Allen has to deal with pressure up the middle on 50% of his snaps. There is no way to maneuver the pocket when that happens. Our oline is as bad as they come. I think Mayfield would probably struggle more than Allen if you put him on our team. Allen’s running ability is the only reason this team can move the ball.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

I like Mayfield a lot and he is the better QB right now. He also started 5 years in college so he should be. They are both going to be good in 3 years but we won’t know who will be better until that time. I think Allen is going to make a huge jump between year 1 and year 2.

 

I agree, I certainly like Mayfield and think he has the potential to be a very good QB for a long time.  Him and Allen I think are both going to have bright futures.  I also completely agree that Allen is poised to make a big jump between years 1 and 2, although to be fair I think Mayfield could too if they get the right coach over there in Cleveland.  

 

I also have confidence in McD and Beane in the draft as the last 2 are having very strong early returns.  So I think with the cap space and 10 picks, they will find a way to get some quality pieces around Allen this year on both the OL and the skill positions.  if they succeed, I really do think the Bills will win the division next year.

 

[Seventeen]

What is adjusted completion % and where can we find this stat ? 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, PolishPrince said:

They also have a run game, and guys making spectacular catches from time to time...

https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/video/can-t-miss-play-chubb-mosses-db-for-absurd-td-catch

YEP

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[PolishPrince]

56 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

No, you are delusional if you think teams are making crazy catches left and right. I can think of 2 catches like that for Cleveland this year.  Chubb, and Landry against the Jets. They are showing 16 drops this year. 

 

Cleveland has a better supporting cast, but it isn't like they are All Pro at all these positions.  Landry is very good. Higgins is good for 25 - 30 yards a game. Callaway is boom or bust. Njoku is crazy talented, but drops a lot of passes and couldn't block me. We are playing Perriman, a complete bust in Baltimore, a lot of meaningful snaps. 

I dont think you watch the Bills games at all. I am not even asking for crazy catches. I am asking for just contested catches at this point lol. I watched the monday night game and watching Diggs come down with a jump ball just thrown up to him and he didnt even have the better position (we have 0 of these all year). Tyler lockett also making a full on layout scraping off teh ground catch for RW3... again Bills have 0 of these all year. Clay cant catch a ball with a slight wobble when he short arms it and hits him in both hands with no one within 10 yards - Allen gets blamed 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[RememberTheRockpile]

3 hours ago, MDH said:

The Bills come in at 13 with 15 drops on the season. The do throw less than most teams, so perhaps their drop percentage would be near the top. I don't feel like doing the math on that one. 

I did the math. Calculated the caught/drop ratio (number of passes caught for each pass dropped). The Bills come in at 28 with 1 drop for every 14.73 completions. Cleveland comes in 20th with 1 drop for every 17.75 completions. Jets come in 31st with 1 drop for every 13.82 completions. Arizona comes in 26th with 1 drop for every 16 completions. Seattle sits at the top at 56.75 and Jacksonville at the bottom at 10.3.

[Success]

At minimum, Allen has shown us what the Bills saw in him coming out of college.  Some  of the raw skills and instincts he has shown are incredibly rare - unlike anything I’ve personally seen before, in terms of the variety of abilities he has.

 

It’s exciting, but so much of it now is how well they develop him and the team they build around him.  It has to start with that line.  If that isn’t the most clear focus of the offseason, it will be mystifying.

[eball]

2 hours ago, cle23 said:

 

Watch Mayfield maneuver the pocket. It's amazing.  The oline in Cleveland has been much better since Jackson was fired, but we have started a 285lbs UDFA rookie at LT, and complete bust Greg Robinson at LT. The middle 3 are great, but our tackles are very weak.

 

Why are you hanging out in a Bills fan forum? Bored?

[The_Dude]

Ridiculous. Baker Mayfield is a superior QB to Allen and to suggest otherwise is nonsense. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

3 minutes ago, The_Dude said:

Ridiculous. Baker Mayfield is a superior QB to Allen and to suggest otherwise is nonsense. 

superior huh, right...pffft

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You are also grossly over looking the real difference maker at WR.  Its not drops, its separation and actually getting open.  This notion that the WR problem is only "drops" related is completely false.  Our guys just dont get open enough, in fact, Zay is practically invisible unless Allen is scrambling under duress and gives Zay a better chance to break free.  He is not doing well at running routes and getting separation consistently.  

 

Those players at WR and TE in Cleveland are superior to ours in both hands, route running, blocking, and getting separation.  We dont have a single WR that would start there.

 

......that is a baffling and frustrating issue about all of them......with Robiskie (37 yrs) and Culley (25 yrs principally as WR Coach) on staff with a combined 62 years, how can knowledge of route running be an issue?.....

Edited December 12, 2018 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Troll Toll]

2 hours ago, The_Dude said:

Ridiculous. Baker Mayfield is a superior QB to Allen and to suggest otherwise is nonsense. 

 

Don’t be so sure. So far in December Josh has accounted for 32 first downs, while Baker is at 20. For all the attention given to completion %, Josh is actually moving the chains with more consistency than Baker as of late. 

[The_Dude]

2 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

 

Don’t be so sure. So far in December Josh has accounted for 32 first downs, while Baker is at 20. For all the attention given to completion %, Josh is actually moving the chains with more consistency than Baker as of late. 

 

Im only responding to let you know I love your username. Dayman 4 life. 

[Stank_Nasty]

13 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

 

Don’t be so sure. So far in December Josh has accounted for 32 first downs, while Baker is at 20. For all the attention given to completion %, Josh is actually moving the chains with more consistency than Baker as of late. 

people don't like how he's doing it. that's all..... lame right? I know.

[The_Dude]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

people don't like how he's doing it. that's all..... lame right? I know.

 

I like how Josh is doing. I’ve been pleasantly surprised and I’m optimistic for his future as of right now. But Baker is the better passer right now. 

[C.Biscuit97]

This guy said something positive about the Bills so he must be a great writer.

[Stank_Nasty]

23 minutes ago, The_Dude said:

 

I like how Josh is doing. I’ve been pleasantly surprised and I’m optimistic for his future as of right now. But Baker is the better passer right now. 

I've had a hard on for Mayfield since like 2015. I freaking love that dude... and I agree with you for the time being.

 

I was talking more about allens detractors in general. most just don't like how the yds are coming about. I think that's silly...… I think we all can agree allen needs to really improve upon his passing. I also think we could probably all agree said problem would look much better if he had what Mayfield had in front of him and around him.

15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This guy said something positive about the Bills so he must be a great writer.

Quinn isn't really a writer. he's a former NFL qb in the media that thinks allen is doing a hell of a job. and he's the 3rd former NFL qb in the media to say so over the last 10 days or so including 2 other simms qb's…..

 

 

but what do they know, right? stupid "writers"

Edited December 12, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[The_Dude]

7 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I've had a hard on for Mayfield since like 2015. I freaking love that dude... and I agree with you for the time being.

 

I was talking more about allens detractors in general. most just don't like how the yds are coming about. I think that's silly...… I think we all can agree allen needs to really improve upon his passing. I also think we could probably all agree said problem would look much better if he had what Mayfield had in front of him and around him.

Quinn isn't really a writer. he's a former NFL qb in the media that thinks allen is doing a hell of a job. and he's the 3rd former NFL qb in the media to say so over the last 10 days or so including 2 other simms qb's…..

 

 

but what do they know, right? stupid "writers"

 

I don’t care how Allen generates the yards. He has a very mediocre receiver in Zay Jones, an O-Line comprised of Swiss cheese, and no running game. 

 

Ive seen him drop dimes and hit dudes in stride, something Tyrod couldn’t do (hit dudes in stride, not dimes). 

 

Im fine with where Allen is. For now. He looks way more promising than what I was expecting. 

[BillsfanAZ]

One thing that keeps coming up is Allen needs to take some velocity off the ball. I get it with short passes that he cant fire a rocket at them....but he really hasnt been firing fast balls on short passes all that much. Earlier in the season he had a few. If the pass is beyond 10 yards or so can an NFL WR say "I dropped it because he threw it too hard"? From memory the pass to Jones was from the opposite hash and had to travel at least 20 yards in the air before bouncing off his chest. Not all passes are going to be caught but if it in the catch radius of the WR it is on the WR to bring it in. 

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I've had a hard on for Mayfield since like 2015. I freaking love that dude... and I agree with you for the time being.

 

I was talking more about allens detractors in general. most just don't like how the yds are coming about. I think that's silly...… I think we all can agree allen needs to really improve upon his passing. I also think we could probably all agree said problem would look much better if he had what Mayfield had in front of him and around him.

Quinn isn't really a writer. he's a former NFL qb in the media that thinks allen is doing a hell of a job. and he's the 3rd former NFL qb in the media to say so over the last 10 days or so including 2 other simms qb's…..

 

 

but what do they know, right? stupid "writers"

Jim Kelly wanted us to draft Tim Tebow.  Ron Jaworski said Kaepernick was going to be an of all time.  Everyone has an opinion.

 

allen has done some good things but there’s a ton to prove.  Hopefully the guys who built this crappy offenses add some real players next year and we don’t have to make a million excuses for poor QBs play.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

As good as Saquon is, any of the QBs over a RB 100 out of a 100 times.

 

No argument here. I think they erred by not taking their highest rated QB. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

As good as Saquon is, any of the QBs over a RB 100 out of a 100 times.

I normally would agree but would you take Adrian Peterson or Todd Gurley over Matt Stafford?  I think I would.  And what’s to say the Giants don’t get a good QBs in the draft to pair with Barkley?  It could be a Rams situation.  Barkley is special and I’m not sure if any of these QBs are elite type guys. I guess time will tell.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Stank_Nasty]

13 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Jim Kelly wanted us to draft Tim Tebow.  Ron Jaworski said Kaepernick was going to be an of all time.  Everyone has an opinion.

 

allen has done some good things but there’s a ton to prove.  Hopefully the guys who built this crappy offenses add some real players next year and we don’t have to make a million excuses for poor QBs play.

agreed.

[Scott7975]

20 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Another invaluable point is how many holding and false starts are happening and wiping out great plays by Josh.

 

people say the jets don’t have much around Darnold, but it’s a lot more than what Buffalo has.

On top of wiping out great plays they also continuously contribute to putting us in 3rd and long situations.  There just aren't that many plays in the book for 3rd and long that they get completed all that often.

[87168]

24 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Jim Kelly wanted us to draft Tim Tebow.  Ron Jaworski said Kaepernick was going to be an of all time.  Everyone has an opinion.

 

allen has done some good things but there’s a ton to prove.  Hopefully the guys who built this crappy offenses add some real players next year and we don’t have to make a million excuses for poor QBs play.

only difference is one of those players took their team to the SB in their rookie year. so not the best comparison

[C.Biscuit97]

16 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I’m not sure which is better.  I do know both guys need to become better passers to be franchise qbs though.  

1 minute ago, 87168 said:

only difference is one of those players took their team to the SB in their rookie year. so not the best comparison

If you’re taking about CK, it was his 2nd year.  My bigger point was just because a former player says something, it’s just another opinion.  In fact some ex players say some of the dumbest stuff imaginable (Terry Bradshaw).

[One Buffalo]

Check this stat out... this certainly helps Baker out....