Players that need replaced in 2019 for the Bills to succeed?

[Kirby Jackson]

22 minutes ago, CookieG said:

 

There are enough maxims being thrown around, and they are good ones..and they both boil down to "talent trumps need".

 

I just don't know if you can apply  them as rigid in all situations,. especially in the current situation. And a little further, prospect A over prospect B is not an all or nothing proposition.

 

Example...prospect A is a DE with a grade of 8.5, prospect B is an OT with a grade of 7.5.  And for the purposes of the ratings...let's say 8.5 is considered an all pro player and 7.5 is considered a fringe Pro Bowl player.

 

But...your team is already near the top in sacks but is at the very bottom of the league in pass protection, leading the league in sacks per attempt and has a pathetic run game.

 

This is where I think you get into a Bill Walsh maxim.  According to legend, when a scout would say something like, "a good prospect, but our draft position is too high for him." Walsh would dismiss the rating and say, "how would he help our team"?  (then he'd probably trade down).

 

In this case, who helps the team more? The higher rated DE help the team more than the lower rated, but still highly rated OT? I'd argue the latter.

 

Another example, let's say you consider this a weak WR class, with only 2 WR's you'd consider drafting in round 1 or 2. Its also a deep DL class with about a dozen draft worthy DL in the same rounds.

 

Considering that everyone else in the NFL probably knows about the WR class...do you consider a WR, knowing that if you wait, all prospects will be gone by the next round? 

 

One last maxim  is an offshoot of Belichick's catch phrase "situational awareness"...the one he preaches on a tactical level to his players all the time.  But it can also be applied to the team building level. 

 

And the situation is this...this is a historically bad offense that has been stripped with most of its talent. It needs to be made a priority. Just because you're drafting at a need position means the player selected will be a bust.

You raise some interesting questions but I’m sticking by my guns. If you have a choice between a guy that you graded as an All-Pro vs. an above average starter I’m taking the All-Pro. As an example, I’d take Nick Bosa ahead of Jonah Williams next year. Bosa, to me, is a lights out pass rusher. OT is a bigger need and I like Williams but I can find an average starter in the next round. I probably can’t find an above average pass rusher there. The drop down from elite to good is a big one. I’d rather drop from good to average than from elite to good. I hope that this makes sense. 

[John from Riverside]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You raise some interesting questions but I’m sticking by my guns. If you have a choice between a guy that you graded as an All-Pro vs. an above average starter I’m taking the All-Pro. As an example, I’d take Nick Bosa ahead of Jonah Williams next year. Bosa, to me, is a lights out pass rusher. OT is a bigger need and I like Williams but I can find an average starter in the next round. I probably can’t find an above average pass rusher there. The drop down from elite to good is a big one. I’d rather drop from good to average than from elite to good. I hope that this makes sense. 

To me it would depend on what was offered

 

Hard to pass up Bosa......you keep Hughes and put Bosa on the other side.....rotate another DE with them to keep them fresh.....and put pressure on QBs all day.   Right now we are MANUFACTURING pressure by Scheme.......

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

To me it would depend on what was offered

 

Hard to pass up Bosa......you keep Hughes and put Bosa on the other side.....rotate another DE with them to keep them fresh.....and put pressure on QBs all day.   Right now we are MANUFACTURING pressure by Scheme.......

I guess that the way that I look at it is that I’d rather have the all-pro and the average guy than 2 slightly above average. I’d rather have:

- Tre White and Jordan Mills than EJ Gaines and Dion Dawkins. 

 

I believe that you need stars.

[Rebel101]

This would be easier to ask who you shouldn’t replace

[billsredneck1]

5 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

It would be painful to watch 1st round talent go off the board, but considering all the needs, I would be in favor of trading down twice, picking up multiple 2nd/3rd/4th round picks. And then maybe package our mid-to-lower round picks to move up some too. In the end, trying to convert those 10 picks across all rounds, into 6-7 picks in rounds 2-4. Players who are more likely to be able to come in and start day 1 next year.

if they do trade down  they could find a way to end up with 2 picks in the first 3 rds. they have 2 4ths and can take their 5th(2) and 7th(2), to move up.

 

what i'd like to see is 2 picks in each rd. 1 thru 4  and possibly still have a 6th.

Edited October 25, 2018 by billsredneck1

[reddogblitz]

7 hours ago, Mark92 said:

I don't think they draft a QB.  Probably bring in a a FA or 2.  

 

I vote for Brock.  At least if he gets in in the regular season we still have a chance.  Fish aren't even paying him 1 mil.

[Elite Poster]

3 hours ago, ctk232 said:

That all you got? Something extremely common? We also nailed picks in the 4th and 5th the last two years across different FOs. The past two drafts have more players contributing and still on the team than we've seen from most of our prior drafts this decade, and the one before.

 

Having 10 picks isn't a guarantee, having 10 first round picks also isn't - albeit anyone would take those chances simply because of the larger pool of talent to pick from. But neither scenario is guaranteed to work statistically speaking. That being said, the reason why having more draft picks is beneficial really shouldn't be that difficult to understand:

 

1. You have a higher probability of finding more players that will contribute by selecting more players from the overall talent pool.

2. You give yourself capital to trade up in earlier rounds, if desired for extra talent, without having to give up picks that would force you to sit out a round or "sell the farm" to get one guy.

3. You give yourself comfort to trade back and either use even more picks, or package later rounds to trade up in round 2 or 3 if a player has fallen that far. Not a likely scenario fwiw, but one that you still have comfort within.

4. Allows you to bring more guys in via the draft, develop what talent is there on rookie contracts for cheap, and help to build a sustainable team for the future (kinda what we're trying to do now).

5. Can help give you comfort to not overspend in FA - something we've done before and are currently suffering from. By having more picks, you don't need to over-reach or overpay B list players as much as you do with a standard set or less (especially given our position needs).

 

I don't see how any of this is a bad thing. While I agree the second 7th round pick likely doesn't mean anything, we've hit consistently in each of our last two drafts across different FOs - including the 4th and 5th round. Nothing's guaranteed, but I'll take this over 7 picks any day.

 

"Nailed". Enlighten me how average to below average players is nailing anything. Give me a break. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think Ivory or Zay are locks.

 

 

...you're slipping Gunner......didn't add your bud Logan Thomas as a definite UBER rider?..............

[ctk232]

5 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

"Nailed". Enlighten me how average to below average players is nailing anything. Give me a break. 

Take your break and pick a different word then but both Matt Milano and Taron Johnson have thus far played beyond their draft pick value and continue to do so. Therefore demonstrating, at least in the past two drafts, that we can likely scout talent out of those rounds. To expect anything from the Bills draft picks beyond the 3rd round is usually pushing it, but of the last two drafts? Absolutely. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but I'd rather have the picks than not.

Edited October 25, 2018 by ctk232

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

"Nailed". Enlighten me how average to below average players is nailing anything. Give me a break. 

Nailed is a quality starter.....someone that does not go out there and ***** themselves on game day.....when you are talking about mid round picks that is the definition of "nailed"

 

When they come out as player of the week or earning some other type of award?   Yes...you "nailed" the pick

[Elite Poster]

4 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

Take your break and pick a different word then but both Matt Milano and Taron Johnson have thus far played beyond their draft pick value and continue to do so. Therefore demonstrating, at least in the past two drafts, that we can likely scout talent out of those rounds. To expect anything from the Bills draft picks beyond the 3rd round is usually pushing it, but of the last two drafts? Absolutely. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but I'd rather have the picks than not.

 

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Nailed is a quality starter.....someone that does not go out there and ***** themselves on game day.....when you are talking about mid round picks that is the definition of "nailed"

 

When they come out as player of the week or earning some other type of award?   Yes...you "nailed" the pick

 

I think you guys are missing the point. I'm not saying it's bad to have picks, I'm saying I don't trust the guys with the picks. Continue telling me how amazing Matt Milano and Taron Johnson are as we get the doors blown off of us for the 4th time this year though. At this point, I like what we have in Taron but Milano is super inconsistent and he was last year as well. My definition of overhauling and rebuilding a team isn't 5th round picks being average to below average starters.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Elite Poster

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Elite Poster said:

 

 

I think you guys are missing the point. I'm not saying it's bad to have picks, I'm saying I don't trust the guys with the picks. Continue telling me how amazing Matt Milano and Taron Johnson are as we get the doors blown off of us for the 4th time this year though. 

Your blaming blowouts on Matt Milano and Taron Johnson?

 

OMFG....dude

[Elite Poster]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

Your blaming blowouts on Matt Milano and Taron Johnson?

 

OMFG....dude

 

It's easy to use what I said in that manner but all I'm saying is according to you guys somehow we seem to have made the best moves in the off-season on defense but the defense still sucks ass. 

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Elite Poster said:

 

It's easy to use what I said in that manner but all I'm saying is according to you guys somehow we seem to have made the best moves in the off-season on defense but the defense still sucks ass. 

The defense does NOT suck ass

 

It is playing with the worst offense in NFL History.....prior to last week they were top 3 in DVOA....they are still top 10 in DVOA.....

 

Talk to me when we can score more the 10 points a game to keep them from being on the field all game......it takes a complete effort......

[PIZ]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That movie remains in my top 10 of all time

 

Please help.  What movie is this?

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, Dave Allen said:

I agree. It's a long-term project; they can't fill all their holes in one offseason. If they can find a true #1 WR and solidly upgrade two OL spots, the offense should be significantly better next year.   

I know this rebuild will take 2 more full seasons but if we can just pu 2 wrs as good if not better than Zay and 2 OL guys to replace Miller and Duc. Also draft a RB since Shady will likely be gone. 

[ctk232]

17 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

 

I think you guys are missing the point. I'm not saying it's bad to have picks, I'm saying I don't trust the guys with the picks. Continue telling me how amazing Matt Milano and Taron Johnson are as we get the doors blown off of us for the 4th time this year though. At this point, I like what we have in Taron but Milano is super inconsistent and he was last year as well. My definition of overhauling and rebuilding a team isn't 5th round picks being average to below average starters.

Well to start, the defense is not as bad as you believe it to be, while it's certainly not an elite defense imo, it's most certainly a top 10 unit at present. It's still lacking depth along the line and one or two spots in the secondary and backer corps, but for a unit that logs more time on the field than most any other defense, what we're seeing is remarkable. And from his play as nickel db, Johnson has more of an impact than any other DB outside of Tre on the roster. Up until last week Milano was graded as one of the top players in the entire league at the position. Neither of them are perfect, but for 4th and 5th round picks? That's an absurd level of production. 

 

Through his one draft Beane has done nothing to cause me to question what he'll do with these picks. Allen was the biggest question mark but he did something we've all been crying for years for our FO to do and draft a top QB. Whether he was the prospect we hoped for or not, Beane went and got his guy. As far as I'm concerned, Edmunds, Phillips, and Johnson have all contributed to their corresponding pick values or more.

 

Not every pick in a rebuild is going to be a knockout starter - sustainable successful teams have middle contract guys filling out the roster that positively produce and help the team. Milano and Johnson are both guys that fit that role and will likely continue to develop as the seasons go on. While Milano wasn't a Beane pick, I still have faith for them to use these. 

 

I also feel it highly likely Beane attempts to move up either for a first or second round pick using this added capital based on his single draft record, but I could be completely off base there.

Edited October 25, 2018 by ctk232

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

 

 

...whatever the actual number is ($50-$80 mil for FA), anybody see McBeane spending it all?........or does he ALREADY have a spending number in mind for 2019 as well as a 2020 carry over (if I understand how carryover works)?.......of course "big splash FA spending" has had some crap results with no warranties or guarantees.....I see him playing close to the vest, but am probably wrong....anybody?..............

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Milano has had a few good games and a few stinkers. That is to me, average. 

 

Not this season he hasn't. He has been excellent other than last Sunday. 

5 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think best player available is a catchy phrase. 

 

What I think really happens is the team sets up a big board with the overall rankings of every player. Then as the pick approaches they look at the grades of the remaining players, have a band they would like to stay within, a +/-, then select a player in that band that best fits with need. 

 

This is not passing on a 97 Cornerback to draft a 71 WR. 

 

Like everything else McDermott and Beane are going to tell you they are doing it all. They are planning for the future and in win-now mode. They are always going to publicly tell you they took the BPA. But what really happens is Stephon Gilmore walks out the door, we need a cornerback. We're done with Tyrod Taylor, we need a QB. We let Preston Brown walk, we need a MLB. And you match need with talent tiers. 

 

Yep. That is what the Bills have been doing and it is what half the league does every year. Convince itself that the talent matches up with their needs. 

 

The smart teams do not do this. The Green Bay Packers are famously a mock drafters nightmare because more often than not they don't allow themselves to get sidetracked by need. New England don't either. Baltimore for the majority of Newsome's reign were in the same category. A lot of teams who have sustained success avoid reaching for need and then convincing themselves it was a smart move. 

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I think we can definately use another pass rusher.....

 

If we draft top 5 I would like to see a trade down so that our first pick can be best player available and hope that pick is best player available in a position of need we should be taking multiple stabs at WR, OL and we need to draft a QB and a RB

 

If we have a shot at Oliver or Bosa I am picking them. 

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You raise some interesting questions but I’m sticking by my guns. If you have a choice between a guy that you graded as an All-Pro vs. an above average starter I’m taking the All-Pro. As an example, I’d take Nick Bosa ahead of Jonah Williams next year. Bosa, to me, is a lights out pass rusher. OT is a bigger need and I like Williams but I can find an average starter in the next round. I probably can’t find an above average pass rusher there. The drop down from elite to good is a big one. I’d rather drop from good to average than from elite to good. I hope that this makes sense. 

 

And I am 100% with this. 

[PlayoffsPlease]

9 hours ago, golfball323 said:

 

Correct. This was a two year tear down with a two year rebuild. 

this is just combination mumbo jumbo and cliche. 

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, PIZ said:

 

Please help.  What movie is this?

 

 

 

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0110413/?ref=m_nv_sr_1

[Coach Tuesday]

The answer is you CAN draft for need as long as you’re able to move up and down the draft board so that you’re picking the player of need at the appropriate draft value.  Teams get into trouble by OVERdrafting for need.  I’m not a fan of Beane’s work generally, but he does seem to have a good understanding of where specific players should fall on the draft board and has shown the ability and willingness to move around to get them.  It’s not something I’m concerned about with him.

[PIZ]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0110413/?ref=m_nv_sr_1

 

Thanks!  I remember that movie.  Loved it.  Totally forgot about it.

 

[GreggTX]

I have a different perspective on some of this because of my age. I've learned to take the long view. I wouldn't be so quick to dump K Benjamin or C Clay as many of you are. They are still our 2 best receivers and our QB's definitely have to shoulder a big part of the blame for their lack of production as well as the coaches. I'd like us to add a great WR with world class speed on the outside opposite Benjamin and a great slot WR to replace Jones and then let's see if Allen can raise his game. I'd make a trade with Shady to draft his replacement, but only if we can get a fairly high 2nd round pick or better. Fix the rest of the offense and I think he can still be great for a couple more years. Rebuild the OL. Get a new LT and move Dawkins to RT. Definitely get a new C and 1 starting G. Then let Teller and Miller and Ducasse fight for the other starting spot.

 

On defense, Murphy is average at best, so I have no problem replacing him and I doubt Shaq will be resigned. I'd very much like to keep Hughes, though. We also need another great CB to play outside. As far as Kyle's replacement goes, It might be Harry Phillips, but we'll have to wait and see how he progresses. Clearly we need to look for Lorenzo's replacement.

 

As far as our young players go, Edmunds is still a concern. He hasn't played very well. He isn't awful, but despite what his coaches say about him, I don't see any real progress from him or Zay Jones. Taron Johnson is a keeper, though. Maybe draft a CB in late rounds to develop and possibly challenge him. Phillips may become a starter, but he can at least be solid backup.

 

And then it mostly comes down to Allen. We are still waiting to see if he will be boom or bust or maybe just ordinary.

Edited October 26, 2018 by GreggTX

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think best player available is a catchy phrase. 

 

What I think really happens is the team sets up a big board with the overall rankings of every player. Then as the pick approaches they look at the grades of the remaining players, have a band they would like to stay within, a +/-, then select a player in that band that best fits with need. 

 

This is not passing on a 97 Cornerback to draft a 71 WR. 

 

Like everything else McDermott and Beane are going to tell you they are doing it all. They are planning for the future and in win-now mode. They are always going to publicly tell you they took the BPA. But what really happens is Stephon Gilmore walks out the door, we need a cornerback. We're done with Tyrod Taylor, we need a QB. We let Preston Brown walk, we need a MLB. And you match need with talent tiers. 

 

 

Yup. Ignoring need sounds great, but it's not a real-world solution. No team can afford to ignore need, and none do. In the later rounds, yeah, ignore need. But if you go through nearly any draft, look at every team, you'll find that pretty much every team drafted one of their top three or four needs in the first and second rounds. It's the way the world works.

 

As you say, Hucklebuck, that doesn't mean "passing on a 97 Cornerback to draft a 71 WR." Precisely. But there's a reason why very few guards, non-rushing ILBs and safeties go in the top ten, and it ain't because there are fewer good guards than there are good QBs. You want to avoid wild overdrafts at all cost. But if you have a young Patrick Mahomes you don't draft a QB even if a QB is the guy you have ranked highest. You just don't.

 

 

7 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Nailed is a quality starter.....someone that does not go out there and ***** themselves on game day.....when you are talking about mid round picks that is the definition of "nailed"

 

When they come out as player of the week or earning some other type of award?   Yes...you "nailed" the pick

 

 

Yup, exactly. They nailed those picks. Both guys are playing far better than their draft pick would lead you to expect and doing so very early in their careers.

 

As for the OP, we need WR, RG, RT, a replacement for Lorax as he ages and a pass rusher to platoon with Murphy and eventually take over. Those'd be my top priorities.

 

Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones have both picked it up a lot in the last two to three games. They're no longer necessary to replace, though it wouldn't be a shock if we let Benjamin go because he might be too expensive to re-sign.

Edited October 26, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

 

14 hours ago, golfball323 said:

 

Correct. This was a two year tear down with a two year rebuild. 

 

 

In terms of complete or near complete rebuilds, there's really almost no such thing as a "two-year rebuild." Unfortunately, they take as long as they take. Being very good in the third year is pretty rare, though there are examples such as the Walsh 49ers. If you're not very good in the fourth year that is probably an indication of some kind of trouble.

 

Rebuilds aren't as precise as teams would like, especially when you've got a QB like Allen who is widely considered to be a bit of a project.

Edited October 26, 2018 by Thurman#1

[longtimebillsfan]

Most of outlet wide receivers and our center and fight side of the offensive line. 

[Cash]

On 10/25/2018 at 9:58 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess that I look at this team as one with a lot of holes. I think that they could need up to 9 starters on offense and a couple on defense. If they end up picking 4 times in the first 100 picks I don’t think 4 starters is unreasonable with this roster. They should have 3 top 70 picks already. You really only need to hit on one Johnson or Milano and you are at that number. As Bandit mentioned, you may see some picks swapped for players as well. 

Yeah, maybe. I just look at past drafts, and even in the good ones, there's almost always a Cyrus Kouandijo in the first few picks. 

 

I think looking at swapping day 3 picks for players could be very fruitful, especially given the slim pickings in FA. Who's the 2018/2019 equivalent of late-prime Brandon Marshall? That guy seemed to be traded for a 6th round pick every other year, and put up big numbers every time. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 10/25/2018 at 8:11 AM, PIZ said:

WR – Benjamin.  Terrible.

LG – Ducasse?  Seems more like a backup G to me.

C – Bodine?  Seems more like a backup center to me.

RB – McCoy.  I don’t expect him to be on the team in 2019.

RG – John Miller.  Need to get better here.

RT – Mills.  Need to get better here.

WR – Holmes.  Only OK at special teams.  Not a starter at WR.

 

(edit) QB - Peterman.  Anderson.  Not sure how I forgot this, but yes, probably both will not be on the roster next season.  We need a quality vet backup for Allen, and I would like to see another young guy that has some talent, to replace Peterman.

 

LB – Alexander.  Still a good player, but he is getting long in the tooth.

DT – Kyle Williams.  Retirement.

DE – Murphy.  Guy can’t stay healthy.

DE – Hughes.  Still a top player, but will he be traded?

CB – Gaines.  Need to get better here.

 

That is a ton of players.  Can the Bills fill these spots via FA and the draft?  Is it realistic to think the Bills can fill these spots with starters that will improve the team?  I think it is possible with the cap money ($91m) and draft picks (10 – below).

 

2019 draft picks:

 

Round 1: original pick.

Round 2: original pick.

Round 3: original pick.

Round 4: original pick.

Round 4:  additional selection acquired from the Kansas City Chiefs as part of Reggie Ragland trade.

Round 5: original pick.

Round 5:  additional selection acquired from the Oakland Raiders as part of AJ McCarron trade.

Round 6: original pick.

Round 7: original pick.

Round 7:  additional selection acquired from the Carolina Panthers as part of Kevon Seymour trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

don't need to replace them all this year but most of them.

 

You forgot TE, haven't had one since Pete. Noah Fant is ranked highly but he seems more like a big WR, which is fine. Also like Kaden Smith from Stanford and 6'8" Zack Gentry

From Michigan.

 

Also Kyle is never retiring !!

 

 

[Cash]

On 10/25/2018 at 12:35 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Depends who they are and who is on the board. That is precisely the point. Deciding on positions before players is the wrong way to think about it. We need more elite talent and more very good just short of elite talent. Not just more warm bodies who can be league average starters.

 

Another theory I know that Kirby particularly subscribes to is draft to the strength of the draft. This year that looks to be d-line. Might not be our number 1 need but it is an area where they can get top end talent.

 

Fully agree with all of this.  The only thing I'd add is that in addition to a draft's specific strengths/weaknesses, positional value has to be accounted for.  If you're between a pass rusher and a guard in the first, and they have the same grade, you should probably take the pass rusher.  Because you're more likely to find a decent enough guard later in the draft or cheaper in FA than a decent enough pass rusher.  

 

This goes double for very high picks.  IMO, the only players you should draft in the top 10 are QBs, pass rushers, LTs, "total package" WRs (think Megatron, Julio, AJ Green) and players you think have HOF-potential talent.  Obviously that last one is the tricky part.  Looking back at the 2012 draft, I'd probably rather have Keuchly over any of the 3 QBs in the top 10, but I can't say the same about Mark Barron.  

 

23 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think best player available is a catchy phrase. 

 

What I think really happens is the team sets up a big board with the overall rankings of every player. Then as the pick approaches they look at the grades of the remaining players, have a band they would like to stay within, a +/-, then select a player in that band that best fits with need. 

 

This is not passing on a 97 Cornerback to draft a 71 WR. 

 

Like everything else McDermott and Beane are going to tell you they are doing it all. They are planning for the future and in win-now mode. They are always going to publicly tell you they took the BPA. But what really happens is Stephon Gilmore walks out the door, we need a cornerback. We're done with Tyrod Taylor, we need a QB. We let Preston Brown walk, we need a MLB. And you match need with talent tiers. 

 

Very much agree with the bolded.  More below...

 

20 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You raise some interesting questions but I’m sticking by my guns. If you have a choice between a guy that you graded as an All-Pro vs. an above average starter I’m taking the All-Pro. As an example, I’d take Nick Bosa ahead of Jonah Williams next year. Bosa, to me, is a lights out pass rusher. OT is a bigger need and I like Williams but I can find an average starter in the next round. I probably can’t find an above average pass rusher there. The drop down from elite to good is a big one. I’d rather drop from good to average than from elite to good. I hope that this makes sense. 

 

I also totally agree with the bolded here.  However, while that's true in the hypothetical you were responding to, I'm not sure how applicable it is to the real world.  It's pretty easy to justify taking the 8.5 over the 7.5.  But I think many (most?) draft decisions come down to more like a 7.2 vs. a 7.1 vs. another 7.2.  Does the GM really have so much confidence in the highly-inexact process of scouting to say that both of the 7.2s are better than the 7.1?  

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Cash said:

 

Fully agree with all of this.  The only thing I'd add is that in addition to a draft's specific strengths/weaknesses, positional value has to be accounted for.  If you're between a pass rusher and a guard in the first, and they have the same grade, you should probably take the pass rusher.  Because you're more likely to find a decent enough guard later in the draft or cheaper in FA than a decent enough pass rusher.  

 

This goes double for very high picks.  IMO, the only players you should draft in the top 10 are QBs, pass rushers, LTs, "total package" WRs (think Megatron, Julio, AJ Green) and players you think have HOF-potential talent.  Obviously that last one is the tricky part.  Looking back at the 2012 draft, I'd probably rather have Keuchly over any of the 3 QBs in the top 10, but I can't say the same about Mark Barron.  

 

 

Very much agree with the bolded.  More below...

 

 

I also totally agree with the bolded here.  However, while that's true in the hypothetical you were responding to, I'm not sure how applicable it is to the real world.  It's pretty easy to justify taking the 8.5 over the 7.5.  But I think many (most?) draft decisions come down to more like a 7.2 vs. a 7.1 vs. another 7.2.  Does the GM really have so much confidence in the highly-inexact process of scouting to say that both of the 7.2s are better than the 7.1?  

 

Most drafts there is a drop between the top handful and the rest. So in the top 10 you are looking sometimes at a 3 or 4 point drop between the best player on the board and the best player at a position of need. Look at the last draft, leave out the Quarterbacks for a second and there was Barkley, Chubb, Nelson - those three were a tier above Smith, Ward, Ridley, Edmunds etc as prospects to my mind. If the Bills were picking in the top 5 last year and thought they had their Quarterback already I would have wanted them to select one of those 3 guys rather than reach for say Ridley because we needed a receiver. 

[billsfan89]

On 10/25/2018 at 8:22 AM, Elite Poster said:

I love how people bring up the "we have 10 picks" BS, and they are all late round picks. This regime just drafted and cut a guy drafted in the 6th this year. Lol.

 

Unlike other regimes who could only seemingly draft good players in the 7th round, this regime in back to back drafts the team has found good starting caliber players in the 4th and 5th round (Johnson and Milano respectively) so while I agree barring the team getting a high pick for Shady the draft haul tends to be overstated but having some extra mid round picks is more helpful for a team that can find good players in those rounds. I fully expect rounds 1-3 to be offensive players but having some extra mid round picks will be useful in acquiring some depth defensively while still being able to address offensive depth as well. 

[CookieG]

On 10/25/2018 at 2:57 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

You raise some interesting questions but I’m sticking by my guns. If you have a choice between a guy that you graded as an All-Pro vs. an above average starter I’m taking the All-Pro. As an example, I’d take Nick Bosa ahead of Jonah Williams next year. Bosa, to me, is a lights out pass rusher. OT is a bigger need and I like Williams but I can find an average starter in the next round. I probably can’t find an above average pass rusher there. The drop down from elite to good is a big one. I’d rather drop from good to average than from elite to good. I hope that this makes sense. 

I think we're at the "agree to disagree" stage, but I'd like to bring up that the Bills actually HAVE taken talent over need in the past, on several occasions.

 

Some of the "too good to pass up" players taken in the 1st include:

 

-Macgahee

-McLovin (the uber talented shut down corner who was too good to pass on)

-Maybin (at least in Dick Jauron's mind)

-Spiller

-Watkins

 

There are mixed results in that group.

 

I don't disagree with the theory, I mean damn, in 2017 they passed on talent AND need for a cornerback. (Sorry, my Lamonica moment).

 

And in our examples, I kinda knew we were referring to the same people.  (Bosa and Williams.)

 

Here's where I stand with Bosa and why I'm not as big on the "talent over need" thingy. I realize he's the consensus DE, the talent is there and he has the pedigree.

 

I don't see the production that others do though.

 

Example...

 

 

I saw a sack near the endzone, which could have been on a missed blocking assignment, and once where he got in the backfield, but missed a tackle.

 

But for most of that game, he was invisible. A slow Orlando Brown kept him in check and frankly, Bobby Evans kicked his ass. Now Evans should probably be a guy to consider if he comes out.

 

I've seen a few other games where he had a little more success, but I'm not seeing a guy who's beating OT's most of the time. I mean, you're talking about less than 2 tackles a game and less than a sack per game.

 

idk...I don't see him as "can't miss" or a generational talent. IMO Myles Garrett fit that bill more than Bosa.

[John from Riverside]

On 10/25/2018 at 5:12 PM, Coach Tuesday said:

The answer is you CAN draft for need as long as you’re able to move up and down the draft board so that you’re picking the player of need at the appropriate draft value.  Teams get into trouble by OVERdrafting for need.  I’m not a fan of Beane’s work generally, but he does seem to have a good understanding of where specific players should fall on the draft board and has shown the ability and willingness to move around to get them.  It’s not something I’m concerned about with him.

This is what I dont understand

 

Why is Zay Jones not better then he is?

 

The guy WAS highly touted.....decent speed and size....flypaper hands....got a ridiculous amount of catches in College.....

 

When we drafted Zay I was totally cool with the trade up.....I thought we were getting the next Robert Woods

 

What was missed

[Victory Formation]

In all honesty, we still need veteran leadership at QB. Derek Anderson is not the guy, Nate Peterman is not the guy, give me Ryan Fitzpatrick. Buy Allen lots of time, between Fitz and JA we would probably be a middle of the road offense in the NFL which is a big improvement from where we're at now. Could actually compete, (I think), especially if we have a top 10 defense, could definitely win some games for sure. 

 

Would also let Groy walk and overpay Kalil to come here, put a 10yr NFL veteran 5 Pro Bowls, yes please. Keep Bodine as our backup center and our interior should be anchored pretty good.

 

One last FA I like is Tavon Austin, he's not going to blow anybody away but I think he could be a great #3 and would pair up nicely with Zay Jones and say an elite WR with that 1st pick. Wouldn't mind Marquise Brown, all of a sudden we have 2-3 decent options at WR, good place to be.

 

Basically I want long time NFL vets sprinkled into this offense, those kind of guys lead the team in the right direction. We have plenty of youth, plenty. We need some experience.

 

 

[Green Lightning]

On 10/25/2018 at 9:48 AM, Straight Hucklebuck said:

QB is the overarching need of this franchise. But assuming the team will not draft serious QB in 2019, then I think its reasonable to expect that we need the following on offense:

 

WR, WR, TE, RG, RT, RB.

 

On defense: DE, OLB, CB. 

 

 

This plus a veteran QB.

[Cash]

1 hour ago, NewDayBills said:

In all honesty, we still need veteran leadership at QB. Derek Anderson is not the guy, Nate Peterman is not the guy, give me Ryan Fitzpatrick. Buy Allen lots of time, between Fitz and JA we would probably be a middle of the road offense in the NFL which is a big improvement from where we're at now. Could actually compete, (I think), especially if we have a top 10 defense, could definitely win some games for sure. 

 

Would also let Groy walk and overpay Kalil to come here, put a 10yr NFL veteran 5 Pro Bowls, yes please. Keep Bodine as our backup center and our interior should be anchored pretty good.

 

One last FA I like is Tavon Austin, he's not going to blow anybody away but I think he could be a great #3 and would pair up nicely with Zay Jones and say an elite WR with that 1st pick. Wouldn't mind Marquise Brown, all of a sudden we have 2-3 decent options at WR, good place to be.

 

Basically I want long time NFL vets sprinkled into this offense, those kind of guys lead the team in the right direction. We have plenty of youth, plenty. We need some experience.

 

 

 Count me out on Tavon Austin. Maybe in a Brandon Tate role - punt returner who gets like 5 snaps at WR - but otherwise I'll pass at any price. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

This is what I dont understand

 

Why is Zay Jones not better then he is?

 

The guy WAS highly touted.....decent speed and size....flypaper hands....got a ridiculous amount of catches in College.....

 

When we drafted Zay I was totally cool with the trade up.....I thought we were getting the next Robert Woods

 

What was missed

 

My personal view (and at the point they took him Zay was in my top 10 remaining on the board, so I am not gonna give it the "oh I knew they should have taken JuJu" line) is that the step between the standard of college ball Zay played and the NFL was so big the kid really struggled to adjust mentally. 

 

That is always an added risk when you pick someone who played at a smaller school. Sometimes - Ali Marpet - they overcome it. Others - sadly Zay - they don't. 

[Fadingpain]

5 pages of blah blah.  Has anyone mentioned QB yet?

 

We need one if we are going to be successful in 2019.

 

No position on the team comes close to translating to wins and losses like the QB, and we don't have one.

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

8 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

This plus a veteran QB.

I’ve laid out the case a few times that a “veteran QB” as the Bills and the media define it, is a waste of time.

 

It’s always some old, washed up back up that Bills had to talk out of retirement.,

2 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

5 pages of blah blah.  Has anyone mentioned QB yet?

 

We need one if we are going to be successful in 2019.

 

No position on the team comes close to translating to wins and losses like the QB, and we don't have one.

 

 

It’s the first position I mentioned. 

 

The over arching need of the entire franchise. But are the Bills going to make a serious run at one in the Draft? 

 

Or are they going to sell us the virtues of a veteran QB?