Project QB's who DID reach potential

[Zerovoltz]

Been reading through the recent Josh Allen threads and as has been hashed over and over....many think of him as a "project".  It got me thinking....how many "project" QB's ever have really made it in the NFL?  

 

Steve McNair was the first one who came to my mind....he was drafted more or less as a project from a small school who was considered physically gifted but needed time to develop...and in his case...he actually did become a very good NFL QB after coming on pretty slow to start out....just as he was projected to do.  

 

Some would say Brett Favre was a project, but I can't really recall if that is what he was projected as, or just difficult to coach and tended to go off script to much as opposed to needing to work on becoming a better QB....(I am sure someone here can remind me/us)

 

On the opposite side of that...the most recent disaster of a guy who pretty much everyone declared as a project is Paxton Lynch.......not being a Denver fan or close to that situation, I can't say I'd seen enough to declare him a bust, but they have....Case Keenum isn't there because they believe Lynch is about to be ready.  

 

Anyhow...post some examples of success and failures....identify what went right or wrong...might provide some insight into the draft class this year and maybe cause a few of us to reflect further or take a second look (I know just from visiting this site alone, I have wavered all over on Lamar Jackson based on peoples thoughts here)

[KDIGGZ]

Success = Tom Brady

Failure = every Bills QB since 1997

[transplantbillsfan]

No one fits the Josh Allen project QB prototype for a guy drafted in the top 10 since Phil Simms in 1979.

 

Steve McNair was an incredibly successful college QB, even if it was at a small school

http://www.espn.com/page2/s/list/collegefootball/seasons.html

McNair's incredible season, in which he led his 1-AA team to an 8-2-1 record, will always be suspect -- he was playing on a pass-giddy team against smaller competition.

 

But the heck with the doubters. Troy State head coach Larry Blakeney, who coached Bo Jackson during his 12 years at Auburn, told the L.A. Times, "Steve McNair is the best football player I've ever seen. ... He'd be the best player on Colorado's team or Nebraska's team, too. He'd be the best player on any team in Division I-A. He's that good. ... He can do more to beat you with his abilities than anyone else I've ever seen. That includes Bo."

 

McNair's stats: 4,863 yards passing, 936 yards rushing for an NCAA record 5,799 yards in total offense. QB rating: 155.4. TD passes: 44. And in the Heisman voting, he managed to finish third despite the doubters, and received 111 first-place votes.

 

Brett Favre can be viewed in the same light as Josh Allen in terms of entering the NFL. He was also a 2nd round draft pick and traded away to have his eventual HOF career with a team that didn't draft him.

 

Phil Simms. I've been challenging someone to find me a QB between 1979 and now who played at a small college against mediocre competition and had mediocre stats who was drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round and went onto a good NFL career.

 

Still waiting

[Skins Malone]

I would say one of the biggest would be Kurt Warner.  Undrafted guy...goes to green bay gets released...is bagging groceries for 5 bucks an hour...arena football etc etc...and now the guy is in the hall of fame.  Cant get much better then that.

Edited April 17, 2018 by Skins Malone

[Zerovoltz]

Skins...I agree Warner is a great story.  But, can you really call a guy who was basically barely on the radar a project?  Maybe you can....he gained some notoriety playing in the Arena Leauge wich drew some interest from a few teams....but it's not like anyone went into that draft year and said Kurt Warner...he could be great but he's a project.  I would think he is more a story about perserverance than being seen as this talented guy who just needed time and coaching.  

[LeGOATski]

Mike Vick?

 

Eh....

[Doc Brown]

Aaron Rodgers adjusted his throwing motion and sat three years behind Favre.  I don't know if he was considered a project QB though.  You usually don't take project's in the 1st round and hope they work out.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

No one fits the Josh Allen project QB prototype for a guy drafted in the top 10 since Phil Simms in 1979.

 

Steve McNair was an incredibly successful college QB, even if it was at a small school

http://www.espn.com/page2/s/list/collegefootball/seasons.html

McNair's incredible season, in which he led his 1-AA team to an 8-2-1 record, will always be suspect -- he was playing on a pass-giddy team against smaller competition.

 

But the heck with the doubters. Troy State head coach Larry Blakeney, who coached Bo Jackson during his 12 years at Auburn, told the L.A. Times, "Steve McNair is the best football player I've ever seen. ... He'd be the best player on Colorado's team or Nebraska's team, too. He'd be the best player on any team in Division I-A. He's that good. ... He can do more to beat you with his abilities than anyone else I've ever seen. That includes Bo."

 

McNair's stats: 4,863 yards passing, 936 yards rushing for an NCAA record 5,799 yards in total offense. QB rating: 155.4. TD passes: 44. And in the Heisman voting, he managed to finish third despite the doubters, and received 111 first-place votes.

 

Brett Favre can be viewed in the same light as Josh Allen in terms of entering the NFL. He was also a 2nd round draft pick and traded away to have his eventual HOF career with a team that didn't draft him.

 

Phil Simms. I've been challenging someone to find me a QB between 1979 and now who played at a small college against mediocre competition and had mediocre stats who was drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round and went onto a good NFL career.

 

Still waiting

 

 

 

Yes, but how surprising is it that out of the extremely small pool you're proposing? 

 

Forget guys who went on to a good NFL career. Very few guys who played at a small college against mediocre competition and had mediocre stats were drafted in the top ten, probably because none were thought to be as likely to be good as Allen. Especially hazy and unfocused, as "mediocre" is a very unclear word, as is "small" schools. Is Boston College a small school for Matt Ryan? He had pretty mediocre stats. Syracuse for McNabb (who had a very fine senior campaign anyway)?

 

How many guys are we talking about? Four? Andre Ware? Terrific senior year. David Klingler? For his time he was generally thought of as having terrific stats, overinflated, actually. Kelly Stouffer? OK, fair enough. Dilfer at Fresno State? Great senior year. Three guys? Four?

 

Statistically insignificant. Means absolutely nothing.

 

All you're pointing out here is how rare a guy Allen is to be good enough in his situation to be considered a possible top ten pick. Which we already knew.

Edited April 17, 2018 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Statistically insignificant. Means absolutely nothing.

 

All you're pointing out here is how rare a guy Allen is to be good enough in his situation to be considered a possible top ten pick.

 

And metrics such as that are just a really blunt instrument for trying to project Quarterbacks anyway.  People don't succeed or fail based on what other people who might have a few things in common with them did in totally different circumstances.  You can't just read Josh Allen and Wyoming and jump to Kelly Stouffer and Colorado State any more than you can jump straight to Carson Wentz and North Dakota State.  None of that is relevant in any way.  You have to treat each guy on their own merits and on the strengths and weaknesses you see on their own tape.  

 

If there was a short cut to projecting QBs based on a set of simple metric measurements NFL teams would have found it by now.  There isn't.  

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And metrics such as that are just a really blunt instrument for trying to project Quarterbacks anyway.  People don't succeed or fail based on what other people who might have a few things in common with them did in totally different circumstances.  You can't just read Josh Allen and Wyoming and jump to Kelly Stouffer and Colorado State any more than you can jump straight to Carson Wentz and North Dakota State.  None of that is relevant in any way.  You have to treat each guy on their own merits and on the strengths and weaknesses you see on their own tape.  

 

If there was a short cut to projecting QBs based on a set of simple metric measurements NFL teams would have found it by now.  There isn't.  

 

 

Nicely put.

[cage]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And metrics such as that are just a really blunt instrument for trying to project Quarterbacks anyway.  People don't succeed or fail based on what other people who might have a few things in common with them did in totally different circumstances.  You can't just read Josh Allen and Wyoming and jump to Kelly Stouffer and Colorado State any more than you can jump straight to Carson Wentz and North Dakota State.  None of that is relevant in any way.  You have to treat each guy on their own merits and on the strengths and weaknesses you see on their own tape.  

 

If there was a short cut to projecting QBs based on a set of simple metric measurements NFL teams would have found it by now.  There isn't.  

 

Amen! This is the toughest problem for any team...

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

Skins...I agree Warner is a great story.  But, can you really call a guy who was basically barely on the radar a project?  Maybe you can....he gained some notoriety playing in the Arena Leauge wich drew some interest from a few teams....but it's not like anyone went into that draft year and said Kurt Warner...he could be great but he's a project.  I would think he is more a story about perserverance than being seen as this talented guy who just needed time and coaching.  

Just looking at your avatar, Mahomes is the perfect test case for a project QB drafted in the top half of the 1st round.

[formerlyofCtown]

Tony Romo and hopefully Nathan Peterman soon as well as AJ McCarran.

 

Then we can trade them and the rest of our team along with 2 years worth of draft capital to get the QB that some TSW poster wants to be our future.

Edited April 17, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

Been reading through the recent Josh Allen threads and as has been hashed over and over....many think of him as a "project".  It got me thinking....how many "project" QB's ever have really made it in the NFL?  

 

Steve McNair was the first one who came to my mind....he was drafted more or less as a project from a small school who was considered physically gifted but needed time to develop...and in his case...he actually did become a very good NFL QB after coming on pretty slow to start out....just as he was projected to do.  

 

Some would say Brett Favre was a project, but I can't really recall if that is what he was projected as, or just difficult to coach and tended to go off script to much as opposed to needing to work on becoming a better QB....(I am sure someone here can remind me/us)

 

On the opposite side of that...the most recent disaster of a guy who pretty much everyone declared as a project is Paxton Lynch.......not being a Denver fan or close to that situation, I can't say I'd seen enough to declare him a bust, but they have....Case Keenum isn't there because they believe Lynch is about to be ready.  

 

Anyhow...post some examples of success and failures....identify what went right or wrong...might provide some insight into the draft class this year and maybe cause a few of us to reflect further or take a second look (I know just from visiting this site alone, I have wavered all over on Lamar Jackson based on peoples thoughts here)

 

 

It's really hard to define a project QB.

 

Isn't Drew Brees one? He sat for his first year behind Flutie while the Dougster was completing 56.4% of his passes and throwing 15 TDs and 18 INTs. I'd argue Cousins is a terrific example.

 

Isn't Romo one? 

 

Is a project QB only a guy who has potential to be near-elite or a top ten guy if he develops? Or is it anyone who is thought to be able to start if he develops? Hard to say.

 

Favre? Dunno, maybe. The story is bizarre. Take a look:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2016/10/18/brett-favre-book-jeff-pearlman-atlanta-falcons-green-bay-packers

 

He certainly wasn't picked to start the first year. Miller was the established starter.

 

Isn't Brady one? No, nobody called him to be excellent but they thought he might be decent down the line. Isn't that developmental? I think it is, but it's reasonable to disagree.

 

I think Russell Wilson was drafted as a developmental guy but they found to their surprise and excitement he was ready right away.

 

What is a developmental QB? I'd say it's a guy who you think/hope can get a lot better with time and teaching. I think there are plenty of them over the years.

 

 

[Zerovoltz]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Just looking at your avatar, Mahomes is the perfect test case for a project QB drafted in the top half of the 1st round.

 

Yeah....good point...the knock on Mahomes was that his mechanics needed work and he'd need some time to learn taking snaps under center...

 

31 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's really hard to define a project QB.

 

Isn't Drew Brees one? He sat for his first year behind Flutie while the Dougster was completing 56.4% of his passes and throwing 15 TDs and 18 INTs. I'd argue Cousins is a terrific example.

 

Isn't Romo one? 

 

Is a project QB only a guy who has potential to be near-elite or a top ten guy if he develops? Or is it anyone who is thought to be able to start if he develops? Hard to say.

 

Favre? Dunno, maybe. The story is bizarre. Take a look:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2016/10/18/brett-favre-book-jeff-pearlman-atlanta-falcons-green-bay-packers

 

He certainly wasn't picked to start the first year. Miller was the established starter.

 

Isn't Brady one? No, nobody called him to be excellent but they thought he might be decent down the line. Isn't that developmental? I think it is, but it's reasonable to disagree.

 

I think Russell Wilson was drafted as a developmental guy but they found to their surprise and excitement he was ready right away.

 

What is a developmental QB? I'd say it's a guy who you think/hope can get a lot better with time and teaching. I think there are plenty of them over the years.

 

 

 

So, yes, this is kind of hard to define.  I'd almost try and separate these into two categories...Project...and developmental.  When I hear project, it seems like that is always associated with some QB who posses physical talents/traits but lacks experience in a certain offense, or needs mechanics work, but who scouts have identified as someone with a very high ceiling if the project to fix those issues succeeds.   The developmental QB would be someone identified as a 3rd round pick or later, who lacks something physically usually, but who has exhibited proficient play in college and could become a servicable backup or starter if surrounded by a strong roster etc someday......so to that end....you could see Mahomes as a "project" although, I still tihnk of that term as something reserved for VERY RAW prospects that need alot of work...more than Mahomes....by this defintion..jsut about eveyrone in this 1st round is a project...and I don't really think that term fits Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield...like it fits Allen.....where as Peterman would be developmental....over time he could be serviceable starter but never expected to be a "star"  .....does that make sense?  If so....Allen would surely be a "project".   Paxton Lynch would be a project.  Bryce Petty would have been considered developmental.  

 

So, to me..project should apply to someone just like Allen or Lynch....physical traits are there, height, arm, etc, but have some serious work to fix major flaws....so that if fixed you have a star...that is a project.

[wakingfane]

What about Joe Flacco?  He had all the measurables with a high ceiling but there was no consensus that he would reach it.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And metrics such as that are just a really blunt instrument for trying to project Quarterbacks anyway.  People don't succeed or fail based on what other people who might have a few things in common with them did in totally different circumstances.  You can't just read Josh Allen and Wyoming and jump to Kelly Stouffer and Colorado State any more than you can jump straight to Carson Wentz and North Dakota State.  None of that is relevant in any way.  You have to treat each guy on their own merits and on the strengths and weaknesses you see on their own tape.  

 

If there was a short cut to projecting QBs based on a set of simple metric measurements NFL teams would have found it by now.  There isn't.  

I think that this holds true on everything GB. Guys might remind you of someone but everyone needs to be judged on their own merits. There are successes and failures all over the map. You increase your chances of getting in right by putting guys in position to succeed. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Brees 

cousins 

Wilson

Dak 

Brady 

Rodgers

Flacco

Dalton

Carr 

 

 

so pretty much every current QB in the  nfl that’s played and won a Super Bowl except Eli and maybe Ben and a bunch of other guys too. 

 

Honorable mention: 

 

Foles 

Keenum

tyrod 

Edited April 17, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[SoCal Deek]

I’d include guys that didn’t play in major college conferences like:

 

Big Ben

Flacco

Romo

(I’m sure there are a few others.)

[K-9]

They’re all projects in some way, shape, or form. 

[Epstein's Mother]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's really hard to define a project QB.

 

Isn't Drew Brees one? He sat for his first year behind Flutie while the Dougster was completing 56.4% of his passes and throwing 15 TDs and 18 INTs. I'd argue Cousins is a terrific example.

 

Isn't Romo one? 

 

Is a project QB only a guy who has potential to be near-elite or a top ten guy if he develops? Or is it anyone who is thought to be able to start if he develops? Hard to say.

 

Favre? Dunno, maybe. The story is bizarre. Take a look:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2016/10/18/brett-favre-book-jeff-pearlman-atlanta-falcons-green-bay-packers

 

He certainly wasn't picked to start the first year. Miller was the established starter.

 

Isn't Brady one? No, nobody called him to be excellent but they thought he might be decent down the line. Isn't that developmental? I think it is, but it's reasonable to disagree.

 

I think Russell Wilson was drafted as a developmental guy but they found to their surprise and excitement he was ready right away.

 

What is a developmental QB? I'd say it's a guy who you think/hope can get a lot better with time and teaching. I think there are plenty of them over the years.

 

 

 

These are all good examples with the possible exception of Brady.  He may have been drafted as a project but he proved himself ready almost immediately.

 

I think of a project quarterback as a guy who ultimately figures out the position after 2-3 years of tutelage.

[Big Turk]

Tom Brady is the start and end of rhe discussion for this type of QB

[CuddyDark]

Kurt Warner

Tony Romo

Matt Hasselbeck

Jake Delhomme

Rich Gannon

Mark Brunell

Trent Green

Matt Schaub

Marc Bulger

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

Been reading through the recent Josh Allen threads and as has been hashed over and over....many think of him as a "project".  It got me thinking....how many "project" QB's ever have really made it in the NFL?  

 

Steve McNair was the first one who came to my mind....he was drafted more or less as a project from a small school who was considered physically gifted but needed time to develop...and in his case...he actually did become a very good NFL QB after coming on pretty slow to start out....just as he was projected to do.  

 

Some would say Brett Favre was a project, but I can't really recall if that is what he was projected as, or just difficult to coach and tended to go off script to much as opposed to needing to work on becoming a better QB....(I am sure someone here can remind me/us)

 

On the opposite side of that...the most recent disaster of a guy who pretty much everyone declared as a project is Paxton Lynch.......not being a Denver fan or close to that situation, I can't say I'd seen enough to declare him a bust, but they have....Case Keenum isn't there because they believe Lynch is about to be ready.  

 

Anyhow...post some examples of success and failures....identify what went right or wrong...might provide some insight into the draft class this year and maybe cause a few of us to reflect further or take a second look (I know just from visiting this site alone, I have wavered all over on Lamar Jackson based on peoples thoughts here)

 

I'm afraid I can't think of much in the way of project QB successes.  Maybe Drew Brees?  He was short, and he played in a spread offense at a relatively small school, which is why I think he fell to the 2nd round.  Here are negatives from his NFL scouting report: " Negatives...Plays in the spread offense, taking the bulk of his snaps from the shotgun...Tends to side-arm his passes going deep...Lacks accuracy and touch on his long throws...Seems more comfortable in the short/intermediate passing attack...Does not possess the ideal height you look for in a pro passer, though his ability to scan the field helps him compensate in this area...Will improvise and run when the passing lanes are clogged, but tends to run through defenders rather than trying to avoid them to prevent unnecessary punishment. "  and he took about 3 years to develop, which is why the Chargers drafted Rivers.  OTOH, there was so much to like - looking at film of Brees in college, he has such pretty passing technique and footwork, and he was teflon in the pocket even then

 

Romo?  as an UDFA who succeeded.

 

Failures abound - Blaine Gabbert, Brock Osweiler, EJ Manuel

 

[Manther]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's really hard to define a project QB.

 

Isn't Drew Brees one? He sat for his first year behind Flutie while the Dougster was completing 56.4% of his passes and throwing 15 TDs and 18 INTs. I'd argue Cousins is a terrific example.

 

Isn't Romo one? 

 

Is a project QB only a guy who has potential to be near-elite or a top ten guy if he develops? Or is it anyone who is thought to be able to start if he develops? Hard to say.

 

Favre? Dunno, maybe. The story is bizarre. Take a look:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2016/10/18/brett-favre-book-jeff-pearlman-atlanta-falcons-green-bay-packers

 

He certainly wasn't picked to start the first year. Miller was the established starter.

 

Isn't Brady one? No, nobody called him to be excellent but they thought he might be decent down the line. Isn't that developmental? I think it is, but it's reasonable to disagree.

 

I think Russell Wilson was drafted as a developmental guy but they found to their surprise and excitement he was ready right away.

 

What is a developmental QB? I'd say it's a guy who you think/hope can get a lot better with time and teaching. I think there are plenty of them over the years.

 

 

Good list

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that this holds true on everything GB. Guys might remind you of someone but everyone needs to be judged on their own merits. There are successes and failures all over the map. You increase your chances of getting in right by putting guys in position to succeed. 

It wasn't too long ago that people were proclaiming Goff was an unsalvageable failure after his rookie year. His rookie year consistented of mostly not playing and late season play where he was simply overwhelmed. It's not surprising that offseason workouts entering into his second year added to an improved roster morphed into a successful sophomore season where he helped lead his team into the playoffs. Kirk Cousins didn't play in his first three years. He was anchored to the bench and was the forgotten man. He used that period of time to work on his game while RGIII was working on his Diva Act and spending an inordinate amount of time with his tiresome self-promoting tweets. 

 

There are qbs in this draft such as Rosen and Mayfield who are ready to play sooner rather than later. Darnold might be an in-between prospect who might need a part of the season before being ready to play. The overwhelming consensus is that Allen is a high potential prospect who is going to require at least a season to be adequately prepared before he is ready to play. If an organization foolishly wants to immediately put him in the line of fire he is being set up to fail. 

 

What is lost in this discussion is there is also a learning curve for all positions. Some players can play rather soon while other players require time to ease into playing. Teams that invest in player development get better returns from their players. Teams that don't seriously believe in the notion of player development not only get less from their players they also lose with a greater frequency. 

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, JohnC said:

It wasn't too long ago that people were proclaiming Goff was an unsalvageable failure after his rookie year. His rookie year consistented of mostly not playing and late season play where he was simply overwhelmed. It's not surprising that offseason workouts entering into his second year added to an improved roster morphed into a successful sophomore season where he helped lead his team into the playoffs. Kirk Cousins didn't play in his first three years. He was anchored to the bench and was the forgotten man. He used that period of time to work on his game while RGIII was working on his Diva Act and spending an inordinate amount of time with his tiresome self-promoting tweets. 

 

There are qbs in this draft such as Rosen and Mayfield who are ready to play sooner rather than later. Darnold might be an in-between prospect who might need a part of the season before being ready to play. The overwhelming consensus is that Allen is a high potential prospect who is going to require at least a season to be adequately prepared before he is ready to play. If an organization foolishly wants to immediately put him in the line of fire he is being set up to fail. 

 

What is lost in this discussion is there is also a learning curve for all positions. Some players can play rather soon while other players require time to ease into playing. Teams that invest in player development get better returns from their players. Teams that don't seriously believe in the notion of player development not only get less from their players they also lose with a greater frequency. 

Really good post John!! You hit the nail on the head.

[HeHateMe]

Josh Allen is the definition of a project QB I think.  I'd probably go with Mahomes and Paxton Lynch as well.  Can't really think of many who have made it.  Brady isn't a project QB.

 

I think of a guy who is raw but has great measurables and has a really high ceiling but low floor. 

[Big Turk]

48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm afraid I can't think of much in the way of project QB successes.  Maybe Drew Brees?  He was short, and he played in a spread offense at a relatively small school, which is why I think he fell to the 2nd round.  Here are negatives from his NFL scouting report: " Negatives...Plays in the spread offense, taking the bulk of his snaps from the shotgun...Tends to side-arm his passes going deep...Lacks accuracy and touch on his long throws...Seems more comfortable in the short/intermediate passing attack...Does not possess the ideal height you look for in a pro passer, though his ability to scan the field helps him compensate in this area...Will improvise and run when the passing lanes are clogged, but tends to run through defenders rather than trying to avoid them to prevent unnecessary punishment. "  and he took about 3 years to develop, which is why the Chargers drafted Rivers.  OTOH, there was so much to like - looking at film of Brees in college, he has such pretty passing technique and footwork, and he was teflon in the pocket even then

 

Romo?  as an UDFA who succeeded.

 

Failures abound - Blaine Gabbert, Brock Osweiler, EJ Manuel

 

 

Uh...Tom Brady? 6th round draft pick...only picked over Tim Rattay allegedly because he was taller...

 

Pretty much any QB who wasnt drafted in the first round that succeeds can be viewed as a project QB who made it...

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

18 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Yes, but how surprising is it that out of the extremely small pool you're proposing? 

 

Forget guys who went on to a good NFL career. Very few guys who played at a small college against mediocre competition and had mediocre stats were drafted in the top ten, probably because none were thought to be as likely to be good as Allen. Especially hazy and unfocused, as "mediocre" is a very unclear word, as is "small" schools. Is Boston College a small school for Matt Ryan? He had pretty mediocre stats. Syracuse for McNabb (who had a very fine senior campaign anyway)?

 

How many guys are we talking about? Four? Andre Ware? Terrific senior year. David Klingler? For his time he was generally thought of as having terrific stats, overinflated, actually. Kelly Stouffer? OK, fair enough. Dilfer at Fresno State? Great senior year. Three guys? Four?

 

Statistically insignificant. Means absolutely nothing.

 

All you're pointing out here is how rare a guy Allen is to be good enough in his situation to be considered a possible top ten pick. Which we already knew.

 

Matt Ryan played in the ACC against serious competition... same with McNabb who plaued in the Big East at the tail end of being a legit football conference. And both of those guys improved every year in college.

 

Klingler kinda fits. Not much of an NFL QB. Same with Ware before him. But both guys had record setting college careers which propelled them to the 1st round of the draft. Both were massive busts.

 

And as far as Allen being rare for "being good enough in his situation to be considered a top 10 pick," well, I don't know what you mean by "good enough," but I thought of 2 cautionary tales that are frighteningly similar to Josh Allen:

 

Jake Locker & Blaine Gabbert 

 

Maybe Josh Freeman.

 

Really there have been plenty of project QBs drafted in the 1st round and even high in the history of the NFL. And several even meet what I thought was pretty basic criteria, but none have been successful.

 

Does that ensure that Allen won't be successful?

 

Well, no, of course not. But the odds are seriously against him historically. And frankly, it would be unwise to target a QB high in a top-heavy, QB rich draft who has maybe a 5% chance of becoming an NFL Franchise QB.

 

Not impossible, just extremely unlikely.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And metrics such as that are just a really blunt instrument for trying to project Quarterbacks anyway.  People don't succeed or fail based on what other people who might have a few things in common with them did in totally different circumstances.  You can't just read Josh Allen and Wyoming and jump to Kelly Stouffer and Colorado State any more than you can jump straight to Carson Wentz and North Dakota State. None of that is relevant in any way.  You have to treat each guy on their own merits and on the strengths and weaknesses you see on their own tape.  

 

If there was a short cut to projecting QBs based on a set of simple metric measurements NFL teams would have found it by now.  There isn't.  

 

I'm actually glad you brought up Carson Wentz. I think that this is simply the Carson Wentz effect. 

 

Think about it. 2 years ago Carson Wentz was coming out of college after having unbelievable success at a really small school. There were tons and tons of questions about him simply because of his level of competition. He was extremely physically gifted and was incredibly successful against the competition he played in college. But there were doubts about how that would translate to the NFL. Those doubts probably caused Cleveland to trade they're pick with the Rams and cause the Rams to pass on Wentz.

 

Mistake? Oh yeah... despite Goff having a good 2017 campaign.

 

But as soon as whence came into the NFL and had a really strong start, where could you look in college for the next Carson Wentz other than Wyoming? And what did Josh Allen do in 2016? He was pretty good. Maybe really good. Depending on your criteria. Suddenly, he's the Talk of the Town. Potentially the first pick of the draft next year! And then he followed that up with a blah 2017 campaign.

 

"But hey! He still has all the physical tools, right? He could be the next Carson Wentz!" 

 

Of course, the 2018 draft is the perfect storm for Josh Allen because of all the teams in the NFL currently desperately wanting to draft a QB... and gee... national pundits and analysts have a clue, so yeah, they're also pumping him up a bit because the writing on the wall is there... it's a nearly 100% lock that at least 4 teams are drafting a QB in the 1st round this year: Cleveland, NYJ, Buffalo and Arizona.

 

Then you throw in teams that might draft a QB because of a combination of potential need and circumstance with NYG, Denver, Miami, and even the Patriots with a potential trade up looming and it's pretty obvious this is going to be the most QBs drafted in the 1st round since... what... 1983?

 

So sure, the media and pundits make money off being right. Saying Josh Allen will be drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round seems like a no-brainer.

 

But I still won't be shocked if he falls.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Matt Ryan played in the ACC against serious competition... same with McNabb who plaued in the Big East at the tail end of being a legit football conference. And both of those guys improved every year in college.

 

Klingler kinda fits. Not much of an NFL QB. Same with Ware before him. But both guys had record setting college careers which propelled them to the 1st round of the draft. Both were massive busts.

 

And as far as Allen being rare for "being good enough in his situation to be considered a top 10 pick," well, I don't know what you mean by "good enough," but I thought of 2 cautionary tales that are frighteningly similar to Josh Allen:

 

Jake Locker & Blaine Gabbert 

 

Maybe Josh Freeman.

 

Really there have been plenty of project QBs drafted in the 1st round and even high in the history of the NFL. And several even meet what I thought was pretty basic criteria, but none have been successful.

 

Does that ensure that Allen won't be successful?

 

Well, no, of course not. But the odds are seriously against him historically. And frankly, it would be unwise to target a QB high in a top-heavy, QB rich draft who has maybe a 5% chance of becoming an NFL Franchise QB.

 

Not impossible, just extremely unlikely.

 

 

 

 

Not impossible. Not extremely unlikely. Not even fairly unlikely.

 

You're one of those guys who thinks he's way smarter than NFL GMs, even though as I've pointed out before, your record on QBs is a few miles south of abysmal. You were wrong on Tyrod every single step of the way and you expect us to take you seriously on somebody being extremely unlikely? You saw extremely unlikely starting in Buffalo for the past year or year and a half and couldn't recognize it.

 

Jake Locker went to Washington. That isn't a small school, so he absolutely doesn't belong in that group. If Matt Ryan playing for Boston College in the ACC "against serious competition" excludes him, then Locker played in the PAC-10 against equally serious competition. Same with Josh Freeman at Kansas State playing against Big-12 competition. If you're going to include them you have to throw in Matt Ryan and McNabb.

 

Blaine Gabbert, yeah, reasonable. That's one guy.

 

Klingler and Ware absolutely do NOT fit because as you pointed out they played very well in college and that excludes them from the group whose boundaries we're talking about, boundaries originally set by you.

 

Again, you're the one who set the parameters here. You said, "I've been challenging someone to find me a QB between 1979 and now who played at a small college against mediocre competition and had mediocre stats who was drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round." 

 

Klingler and Ware had excellent college careers and stats and Freeman and Locker did not play at a small college against mediocre competition. 

 

Looks like you've got two guys there. Gabbert and Kelly Stouffer. Maybe one or two others we've missed but this is completely statistically insignificant.

Edited April 18, 2018 by Thurman#1

[transplantbillsfan]

47 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Not impossible. Not extremely unlikely. Not even fairly unlikely.

 

You're one of those guys who thinks he's way smarter than NFL GMs, even though as I've pointed out before, your record on QBs is a few miles south of abysmal. You were wrong on Tyrod every single step of the way and you expect us to take you seriously on somebody being extremely unlikely? You saw extremely unlikely starting in Buffalo for the past year or year and a half and couldn't recognize it.

 

Jake Locker went to Washington. That isn't a small school, so he absolutely doesn't belong in that group. If Matt Ryan playing for Boston College in the ACC "against serious competition" excludes him, then Locker played in the PAC-10 against equally serious competition. Same with Josh Freeman at Kansas State playing against Big-12 competition. If you're going to include them you have to throw in Matt Ryan and McNabb.

 

Blaine Gabbert, yeah, reasonable. That's one guy.

 

Klingler and Ware absolutely do NOT fit because as you pointed out they played very well in college and that excludes them from the group whose boundaries we're talking about, boundaries originally set by you.

 

Again, you're the one who set the parameters here. You said, "I've been challenging someone to find me a QB between 1979 and now who played at a small college against mediocre competition and had mediocre stats who was drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round." 

 

Klingler and Ware had excellent college careers and stats and Freeman and Locker did not play at a small college against mediocre competition. 

 

Looks like you've got two guys there. Gabbert and Kelly Stouffer. Maybe one or two others we've missed but this is completely statistically insignificant.

 

You

 

are

 

lost.

 

Typical Thurm, lost in an argument.

 

And still obsessed with Tyrod here I see.

 

Literally obsessed that.

 

But the irony that might be lost on you here, of course, is that the same logic you used consistently in arguing that Taylor wouldn't turn into a Franchise QB (which I was a solid believer in, I readily admit, up until the Steelers game of 2016) is the very same logic I'm using here and you're strangely adamantly denying.

 

Remember obsessing over how only Rich Gannon became a Franchise QB after his 6th or 7th or whatever year in the NFL and how that was your knock on Taylor.

 

 

So rather than your clear obsession over me and Tyrod Taylor... just answer the OP... who are the Project QBs historically who did reach potential?

 

And true project QBs in the vein of Allen.

 

Rodgers is probably one, but he had the benefit of sitting for 3 years. I could see a Rodgers like fall for Allen and a team like the Patriots drafting him as a project.

 

Favre is another, but he was drafted in the 2nd round and was traded by the team that drafted him.

 

Who else?

 

Project QBs. Those guys are obvious in terms of category for pure physical ability and stature: EJ Manuel, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, etc.

 

Hey... Thurm... remember how you argued historical tendencies????

Edited April 18, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[NoSaint]

17 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

Josh Allen is the definition of a project QB I think.  I'd probably go with Mahomes and Paxton Lynch as well.  Can't really think of many who have made it.  Brady isn't a project QB.

 

I think of a guy who is raw but has great measurables and has a really high ceiling but low floor. 

 

Not a GREAT player but tannehill is the best example I can think of recently that’s a huge project, top pick, and signed a big second contract

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You

 

are

 

lost.

 

Typical Thurm, lost in an argument.

 

And still obsessed with Tyrod here I see.

 

Literally obsessed that.

 

But the irony that might be lost on you here, of course, is that the same logic you used consistently in arguing that Taylor wouldn't turn into a Franchise QB (which I was a solid believer in, I readily admit, up until the Steelers game of 2016) is the very same logic I'm using here and you're strangely adamantly denying.

 

Remember obsessing over how only Rich Gannon became a Franchise QB after his 6th or 7th or whatever year in the NFL and how that was your knock on Taylor.

 

 

So rather than your clear obsession over me and Tyrod Taylor... just answer the OP... who are the Project QBs historically who did reach potential?

 

And true project QBs in the vein of Allen.

 

Rodgers is probably one, but he had the benefit of sitting for 3 years. I could see a Rodgers like fall for Allen and a team like the Patriots drafting him as a project.

 

Favre is another, but he was drafted in the 2nd round and was traded by the team that drafted him.

 

Who else?

 

Project QBs. Those guys are obvious in terms of category for pure physical ability and stature: EJ Manuel, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, etc.

 

Hey... Thurm... remember how you argued historical tendencies????

 

 

Stupid argument for Transie, as usual.

 

I argued historical tendencies in a case where out of roughly 80 - 120 guys who qualified for the group (QBs who'd been in the league for six years or more, hadn't proved themselves franchise guys before that and had a chance to start for at least a year or more), only one had raised his level that late in his career and become a franchise guy, Gannon. I argued that this showed that Tyrod had a miniscule chance of suddenly upping his level in 2017. Transie argued Tyrod was totally in there with a good chance of major improvement. Gee, hard to figure who was right on that one.

 

And in this thread, Transie's arguing historical tendencies about a group of two guys. Statistically insignificant.

 

And he asks me to tell project QBs who've reached their potential ignoring the fact I've already done so ... in this thread. But that's Transie. Miss the point a million ways from Sunday.

 

History says jack-**** about Allen. He's a one-off. You evaluate him by the scouting report. He's got pluses and minuses there and that's how you decide. And at least so far it looks like he's likely to go in the top ten or so. But some people know way more than NFL GMs 

 

Most likely this is enough on this argument. He's a guy whose history shows that if he gets the last word he thinks he's won, and this sometimes baits me onwards. If his next post is as obviously unaware and off-point as this one, I won't bother answering. 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2018 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

 

Not a GREAT player but tannehill is the best example I can think of recently that’s a huge project, top pick, and signed a big second contract

 

I still don't understand why he was a top 10 pick and I have no idea why they signed him to a big second contract.  He is so mediocre.  

 

I tend to not be that high on guys I think are projects the "loads of raw ability but lots of refinement needed" type guys but if you are going to go with one in the 1st round go for a Mahomes or a Josh Allen whose tools are off the charts and whose ceilings are sky high.  Don't go for Tallywhacker who might on a good day be a poor man's Rich Gannon.  

20 hours ago, JohnC said:

It wasn't too long ago that people were proclaiming Goff was an unsalvageable failure after his rookie year. His rookie year consistented of mostly not playing and late season play where he was simply overwhelmed.

 

It's also true though that if you were sad enough to spend a week last summer re-watching all of Goff's throws as a rookie (yep, that was me) you came away feeling much more positive about his chances than the narrative at the time. Apparently McVay did the same before taking that job and I'm not surprised he took it after doing that. There was some good stuff on that Goff tape, some good throws and a toughness playing behind an absolutely atrocious line and with a bunch of scrubs at WR on a team that had given up.  The biggest red flag his rookie year actually his mentality... he looked overwhelmed as you say JohnC and he seemed to lack confidence and assurity.  

 

Quarterbacks, especially young Quarterbacks, do need the things around them to be right. Had Jeff Fisher and our TE coach stayed his HC and OC in year two..... well it might have been too late to salvage his confidence.  

Edited April 18, 2018 by GunnerBill

[SoTier]

On 4/17/2018 at 6:05 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's really hard to define a project QB.

 

Isn't Drew Brees one? He sat for his first year behind Flutie while the Dougster was completing 56.4% of his passes and throwing 15 TDs and 18 INTs. I'd argue Cousins is a terrific example.

 

Isn't Romo one? 

 

Is a project QB only a guy who has potential to be near-elite or a top ten guy if he develops? Or is it anyone who is thought to be able to start if he develops? Hard to say.

 

Favre? Dunno, maybe. The story is bizarre. Take a look:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2016/10/18/brett-favre-book-jeff-pearlman-atlanta-falcons-green-bay-packers

 

He certainly wasn't picked to start the first year. Miller was the established starter.

 

Isn't Brady one? No, nobody called him to be excellent but they thought he might be decent down the line. Isn't that developmental? I think it is, but it's reasonable to disagree.

 

I think Russell Wilson was drafted as a developmental guy but they found to their surprise and excitement he was ready right away.

 

What is a developmental QB? I'd say it's a guy who you think/hope can get a lot better with time and teaching. I think there are plenty of them over the years.

 

 

 

I think that this question determines the results of the general question about "project QBs who DID reach potential".  If you define a "developmental QB" as a QB who was an UDFA or QBs drafted after the first round, then you'll get a lot of examples compared to limiting your definition to "first round QBs who were projects".

 

I think you would have to go back thirty or forty years to find any examples of first round "projects" who were actually successful because there simply aren't any in the last twenty.  Pretty much,  first round "projects" in the last 20 years have all failed.  I also don't think that going to a "small school" = "project".  Ben Roethlisberger was not a "project" despite going to Miami of Ohio (not the U!).  Neither was Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or Carson Wentz.  All of these QBs were impressive QBs even if they played in lower regarded Div 1 (or even Div II schools in Flacco's case) programs.  JP Losman wasn't nearly as impressive at Tulane as Roethlisberger, Ryan, Flacco or Wentz, and Josh Allen wasn't at Wyoming, either.

[grb]

On 4/17/2018 at 8:45 AM, JohnC said:

It wasn't too long ago that people were proclaiming Goff was an unsalvageable failure after his rookie year. His rookie year consistented of mostly not playing and late season play where he was simply overwhelmed. It's not surprising that offseason workouts entering into his second year added to an improved roster morphed into a successful sophomore season where he helped lead his team into the playoffs. Kirk Cousins didn't play in his first three years. He was anchored to the bench and was the forgotten man. He used that period of time to work on his game while RGIII was working on his Diva Act and spending an inordinate amount of time with his tiresome self-promoting tweets. 

 

There are qbs in this draft such as Rosen and Mayfield who are ready to play sooner rather than later. Darnold might be an in-between prospect who might need a part of the season before being ready to play. The overwhelming consensus is that Allen is a high potential prospect who is going to require at least a season to be adequately prepared before he is ready to play. If an organization foolishly wants to immediately put him in the line of fire he is being set up to fail. 

 

What is lost in this discussion is there is also a learning curve for all positions. Some players can play rather soon while other players require time to ease into playing. Teams that invest in player development get better returns from their players. Teams that don't seriously believe in the notion of player development not only get less from their players they also lose with a greater frequency. 

 

A couple of quibbles :

• Cousins did play intermittently his first three years - he was just bad. That's how he got benched for Colt McCoy.
• By accounts RGIII had a clumsy locker room presence and maybe did tweet too much (if you think counting them is absolutely necessary), but really? The man's real problems were a terrible injury and three-ring-circus of a professional environment. An example might be the coach who used RGIII as a pawn to engineer his own firing - to walk away from the team while collecting money on his contract. Or an idiot of an owner, who picked the quarterback to adopt as his best buddy. Griffin may has his flaws, but IMO he was more sinned against than sinning.....

[billspro]

On 2018-04-16 at 10:55 PM, Zerovotlz said:

Been reading through the recent Josh Allen threads and as has been hashed over and over....many think of him as a "project".  It got me thinking....how many "project" QB's ever have really made it in the NFL?  

 

Steve McNair was the first one who came to my mind....he was drafted more or less as a project from a small school who was considered physically gifted but needed time to develop...and in his case...he actually did become a very good NFL QB after coming on pretty slow to start out....just as he was projected to do.  

 

Some would say Brett Favre was a project, but I can't really recall if that is what he was projected as, or just difficult to coach and tended to go off script to much as opposed to needing to work on becoming a better QB....(I am sure someone here can remind me/us)

 

On the opposite side of that...the most recent disaster of a guy who pretty much everyone declared as a project is Paxton Lynch.......not being a Denver fan or close to that situation, I can't say I'd seen enough to declare him a bust, but they have....Case Keenum isn't there because they believe Lynch is about to be ready.  

 

Anyhow...post some examples of success and failures....identify what went right or wrong...might provide some insight into the draft class this year and maybe cause a few of us to reflect further or take a second look (I know just from visiting this site alone, I have wavered all over on Lamar Jackson based on peoples thoughts here)

 

Mahommes was a project QB. I would put Stafford in that category as well. 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Stupid argument for Transie, as usual.

 

I argued historical tendencies in a case where out of roughly 80 - 120 guys who qualified for the group (QBs who'd been in the league for six years or more, hadn't proved themselves franchise guys before that and had a chance to start for at least a year or more), only one had raised his level that late in his career and become a franchise guy, Gannon. I argued that this showed that Tyrod had a miniscule chance of suddenly upping his level in 2017. Transie argued Tyrod was totally in there with a good chance of major improvement. Gee, hard to figure who was right on that one.

 

And in this thread, Transie's arguing historical tendencies about a group of two guys. Statistically insignificant.

 

And he asks me to tell project QBs who've reached their potential ignoring the fact I've already done so ... in this thread. But that's Transie. Miss the point a million ways from Sunday.

 

History says jack-**** about Allen. He's a one-off. You evaluate him by the scouting report. He's got pluses and minuses there and that's how you decide. And at least so far it looks like he's likely to go in the top ten or so. But some people know way more than NFL GMs 

 

Most likely this is enough on this argument. He's a guy whose history shows that if he gets the last word he thinks he's won, and this sometimes baits me onwards. If his next post is as obviously unaware and off-point as this one, I won't bother answering. 

 

 

 

There are probably well over 80-120 guys who were drafted over the years as project QBs. Raw out of college and drafted for pure physical talent to mould like a ball of clay. These guys have been drafted higher than they should have throughout the history of the NFL. And, like Allen will be, they were drafted primarily for their physical potential, showing only possible flashes of that potential in college.

 

These are guys you're going to essentially have to fundamentally change in the NFL. 

 

The OP asked a very simple question that you seem afraid to answer.

 

Where are all these project QBs who have gone on to be good? 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2018 by transplantbillsfan