If Bills give up as much as 4 or 5 picks for a QB

[Kingston Bills Fan]

Would you be upset if he didn’t start this year? The amount of picks they are talking about giving up, for a guy who may not even play this year seems crazy. If we move up does AJ still have a shot to start? And if AJ starts does he have much chance of success with the team with all the holes we will still have giving all our picks away?

 

If we also give next years First rounder it could be a very high pick with all the holes we will have this year imagine finally getting the #1 pick next year and we gave it away seems like a Bills thing to happen!

Edited April 5, 2018 by Kingston Bills Fan

[26CornerBlitz]

Had not pondered this until just now. 

[SouthNYfan]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

Had not pondered this until just now. 

 

It's a pretty hot-take.

[TOboy]

I don't think it matters to me if he starts the year as the starter or not. Ultimately, if we invest that much in him, he's the future. And if he's not starting by mid season it's very likely AJ is performing well and the team is in a good position. 

[26CornerBlitz]

6 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

It's a pretty hot-take.

 

[cba fan]

7 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

lol...........Holy crap get that boy some antibiotics and soothing gel cream.

[BillsfanAZ]

18 minutes ago, Kingston Bills Fan said:

Would you be upset if he didn’t start this year? The amount of picks they are talking about giving up, for a guy who may not even play this year seems crazy. If we move up does AJ still have a shot to start? And if AJ starts does he have much chance of success with the team with all the holes we will still have giving all our picks away?

 

If we also give next years First rounder it could be a very high pick with all the holes we will have this year imagine finally getting the #1 pick next year and we gave it away seems like a Bills thing to happen!

Only way I see a rookie QB playing is if AJ gets hurt or he really sucks. Even if he plays just ok then he will continue to play until the Bills feel the new QB is ready. The Bills picking a rookie QB isnt about next season, it is about the future. 

 

The Bills will not have the top pick next year. Both the Rams and Eagles gave up multiple high round picks from two drafts to move up. Seems to have worked out for them. Saying its a Bills thing to happen makes no sense. Completely different people running the show. 

[buffalover4life]

The best player plays, the way Beane talks about the cost of trading up and the player he is looking for in that spot it sounds like he is planning on that player being the best QB on the roster from day 1 and should be able to win the job. If we sit tight at 12, then the player may sit because it indicates less conviction by the front office

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

someone's not jealous  that someone else started a duplicate thread are they?  

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

30 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I see SOMEONE picked up my ex-wife on Ladies Night.

[TigerJ]

There are two QBs in this draft that I think have a pretty high probability of starting in their rookie season, depending on where they end up: Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen.  If the Bills draft any other QB and put him in the starting role, I would be pretty worried about the season.  Trading up and giving up a bunch of picks to get that QB is another issue.  I suppose, I would have to trust the long term plan, and the hope that the Bills are eventually going to have a long term starter because they did so.  It might make me a little nervous, but not upset if he wasn't ready to start.

[Da webster guy]

Almost all qb's will eventually start their rookie year, they usually get in there by week 12 at the latest but obviously depends on a million things like how the current starter is playing, bye weeks, development, injuries, strength of opponent etc

 

I will say I agreed with Peterman going in when he did because there was essentially no crowd noise problem with that temp stadium the Chargers played in (and Tyrod stunk it up badly the previous few weeks) but we underestimated that Chargers pass rush--or maybe coach Lynn just knew how to exploit guys like Mills--but that was the worst game of the year protection wise, and was obviously a nightmare first start because of it.

 

The bottom line is throw three good qb's in camp, all of them will have good potential, and see who emerges.   Maybe the rook does sit out the whole year, that would be a good thing in many ways.

[Matt_In_NH]

If they end up with a franchise QB the picks will be forgettable.  If the guy busts then everyone will look in hindsight at the best player taken after each pick and say we have had 1,2,3,4,5.....

[maryland-bills-fan]

two firsts and a second would be just fine.

[slaphappy]

If we had only held onto the Wrecks brothers one more season we might have been picking in the top 5. Damn process.

[nedboy7]

30 minutes ago, mattynh said:

If they end up with a franchise QB the picks will be forgettable.  If the guy busts then everyone will look in hindsight at the best player taken after each pick and say we have had 1,2,3,4,5.....

 

true.  so about 25% chance it works out. 

[MAJBobby]

Nope if he doesnt start he doesnt start. He will play eventually this year though once he is ready

[Dr. K]

I don't feel good about the Bills giving up four or five picks to draft one of these QBs when more than half the time QBs drafted in the top ten are busts. 

 

They have too many holes--many of which they created themselves--to fill on this team.

 

 

[LedyardCTbillsfan]

If we are giving up 4+ picks to get our franchise QB, let's make sure he is ready to play before we throw him to the wolves, even if it means him missing most or all of next year.

[The Wiz]

4 minutes ago, LedyardCTbillsfan said:

If we are giving up 4+ picks to get our franchise QB, let's make sure he is ready to play before we throw him to the wolves, even if it means him missing most or all of next year.

Wolves? Hide the rubber mats.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

 

true.  so about 25% chance it works out. 

 

Where did you get 25%?

[Domdab99]

If we're giving up that many picks, not only do I think he should start immediately, he needs to park some cars in the stadium valet before the games. 

[Marv's Neighbor]

I can't imagine Terry letting the BILLS gamble that much on this.  I would love to see us get a QB of the future, but not by overpaying with such a potentially bad investment.

[Boca BIlls]

2 minutes ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

I can't imagine Terry letting the BILLS gamble that much on this.  I would love to see us get a QB of the future, but not by overpaying with such a potentially bad investment.

Terry needs to let Beane do his job, GM's get one chance to do things like this. You need to let the talent evaluation play out, don't do a Browns and Haslam the situation. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...would be shocked as hell if McBeane gave up significant draft capital to move up......don't remember any of the top dawgs coming with a warranty, money back guarantee or full refund of all draft capital if a bust.......but then again, McBeane is OBD's Phil Ivey so who knows what the hell he is thinking?...........

[maryland-bills-fan]

Lets imagine an alternate universe, where say Rosen and Darnold are going to be juniors this year.  Might we be real happy to trade up to #8 or so and get somebody like Rudolf?

[Batman1876]

7 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Lets imagine an alternate universe, where say Rosen and Darnold are going to be juniors this year.  Might we be real happy to trade up to #8 or so and get somebody like Rudolf?

Nope. He’s not a strong prospect. If he were the best QB in the draft then it would look like the 2013 draft. 

[Marv's Neighbor]

5 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Terry needs to let Beane do his job, GM's get one chance to do things like this. You need to let the talent evaluation play out, don't do a Browns and Haslam the situation. 

That's right, BUT, if the results are not there, he will have an opportunity to "do his job" somewhere else.

[26CornerBlitz]

5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Lets imagine an alternate universe, where say Rosen and Darnold are going to be juniors this year.  Might we be real happy to trade up to #8 or so and get somebody like Rudolf?

 

Rudolf Hess?  No way.  Mason Rudolph? Not him either. 

[Manther]

On 2018-04-05 at 2:06 PM, Kingston Bills Fan said:

Would you be upset if he didn’t start this year? The amount of picks they are talking about giving up, for a guy who may not even play this year seems crazy. If we move up does AJ still have a shot to start? And if AJ starts does he have much chance of success with the team with all the holes we will still have giving all our picks away?

 

If we also give next years First rounder it could be a very high pick with all the holes we will have this year imagine finally getting the #1 pick next year and we gave it away seems like a Bills thing to happen!

To answer your questions IMO...

 

1.  I would NOT be upset if the QB we draft does not start

 

2.  Yes, AJ will most likely start barring injury

 

3.  AJ will have as good an opportunity as TT to have success.  He can take us to the playoffs.  If he can’t he could be close or a career back up.  But, he has enough around him

 

4.  Yes, giving up our 1st next year scares me and just started to this week.  But, trust the process and Billieve we trade up for the right QB.  You have to go for it!  IF you think that QB is the right guy

 

Go Bills!!

[CEN-CAL17]

Question is what pick do we get back next year for trading AJ after he plays well this year?

[dollars 2 donuts]

For five picks I think he should even start in OTAs.

[mead107]

I don’t think they do it 

[Ayjent]

They put themselves in this pickle, like they’ve done before so I do get irritated with the thought of them giving up all of these draft assets that they acquired by getting rid of good players, and the talent deficit they created - just to gamble on a QB prospect that they “need” because they traded away a guy that was a capable starter.  I’m not trying to call Tyrod the answer, but having him gives you the ability to be patient in both the draft and development of your eventual replacement.

 

Now they’ve got two guys with little game experience at QB and a third that’s about to be in the mix - chances are, the deficiencies on the OL and at WR are going to be more pronounced with such inexperience, and DaBoll isn’t some unknown potential NFL genius that will be able to coach the hell out of the Offense (his NFL experience isn’t exactly exciting anyone with reasonable expectations).  They’ve got to get an infusion of talent upfront on the OL, and hope that Dawkins keeps on progressing, because they just doubled down on it to move up in the draft.  I feel like they need to move up more only if the deal is good and it becomes clear that they may miss out entirely on the top 5 prospects at QB, but again didn’t they create this dire need?  They appear desperate because they now are desperate.  It would be really sad if we trade up with the Browns and end up giving them back their 3rd and other high picks because they need a guy to replace the guy they traded.  If he doesn’t exceed Tyrod, which is very possible, it makes the Browns look like they got over on you...that’s not a good look.  That’s Buddy Nix territory on management of the QB position. 

[Punching Bag]

On 4/5/2018 at 2:54 PM, Da webster guy said:

maybe coach Lynn just knew how to exploit guys like Mills--but that was the worst game of the year protection wise, and was obviously a nightmare first start because of it.

Lynn was offense coach and I doubt he was the one who knew how to exploit Mills other than knowing his strengths and weaknesses which I think most DCs know.

[Thurman#1]

On 4/6/2018 at 6:53 AM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...would be shocked as hell if McBeane gave up significant draft capital to move up......don't remember any of the top dawgs coming with a warranty, money back guarantee or full refund of all draft capital if a bust.......but then again, McBeane is OBD's Phil Ivey so who knows what the hell he is thinking?...........

 

 

 

Consider yoga, meditation, or perhaps massage.

 

There ain't a player in NFL history who came with a guarantee or a refund, and yet players like Wentz and many others weren't acquired without giving up major draft booty.

 

And no, I wouldn't mind a bit if they gave him a year on the bench. The higher you get a guy the more you need to develop him correctly and carefully. 

 

Quick question: who are the elite QBs in the league right now? Brady, surely. Brees? Rodgers? Philip Rivers? Carson Palmer last year? Can we agree on those? Wanna leave Rivers and Palmer out? What do they all have in common?

Edited April 10, 2018 by Thurman#1

[RochesterRob]

On April 5, 2018 at 1:53 PM, TigerJ said:

There are two QBs in this draft that I think have a pretty high probability of starting in their rookie season, depending on where they end up: Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen.  If the Bills draft any other QB and put him in the starting role, I would be pretty worried about the season.  Trading up and giving up a bunch of picks to get that QB is another issue.  I suppose, I would have to trust the long term plan, and the hope that the Bills are eventually going to have a long term starter because they did so.  It might make me a little nervous, but not upset if he wasn't ready to start.

  What the top teams do and if they choose to keep their picks is out of our hands.  We can't assume Mayfield and Rosen will be available to us.  I'd be worried that if the rookie sat all of 2018 that his following season will still have ample growing pains.  

[Thurman#1]

Answer to question about Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers and Carson Palmer:  They all sat the bench for their first year. Or more.

 

And that's a pretty good list.

Edited April 10, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Kingston Bills Fan]

The thing not discussed as much in this post is the fact the first rounder we would have to give up next year will most likely be a top 5 maybe a top 3! Given we give up basicly our whole draft, and with the state of the team as is I’m not sure we get more than 4 wins with a rookie QB or with AJ. There are just way too many holes in this team.

It’s just going to hurt a lot next year if we had the 1st 2nd or 3rd pick and it’s now gone! I’m not saying not to do it but it just feels like that’s our luck!

9 minutes ago, Kingston Bills Fan said:

 

 

And imagine that the Giants get our two firsts this year and a Second then also get their number 2 overall back next year from us (if we play bad enough) for giving us the number two this year! If it works out that way, it could be the best trade in NFL history for the Giants!

Edited April 10, 2018 by Kingston Bills Fan

[Ayjent]

4 hours ago, Kingston Bills Fan said:

The thing not discussed as much in this post is the fact the first rounder we would have to give up next year will most likely be a top 5 maybe a top 3! Given we give up basicly our whole draft, and with the state of the team as is I’m not sure we get more than 4 wins with a rookie QB or with AJ. There are just way too many holes in this team.

It’s just going to hurt a lot next year if we had the 1st 2nd or 3rd pick and it’s now gone! I’m not saying not to do it but it just feels like that’s our luck!

 

And imagine that the Giants get our two firsts this year and a Second then also get their number 2 overall back next year from us (if we play bad enough) for giving us the number two this year! If it works out that way, it could be the best trade in NFL history for the Giants!

Yeah - I think that is why they can't trade next year's pick as part of a deal to move up.  They are too precariously close to being a hot steaming pile of garbage on Offense with the three best players from the last couple of years on the OL gone, their starting QB gone, the two best receiving options in Benjamin and Clay aren't exactly on good wheels, and the other WR/TEs have not proven anything other than being also-ran, easily replaceable players.  Giving away 1sts in a future draft is too dicey - the cost becomes greater the more you actually need the pick because your team isn't good.  If we were talking about a team with an established core somewhere on the team, trading a future 1st is a little more understandable - but I just don't see how this team makes the playoffs this year barring a ridiculously good draft, and I don't see that if they have very few picks in the 1st three rounds.  What kind of situation are you bringing this marquee QB prospect into if you keep on gutting the talent on the team and have no draft picks?  Look a good QB cures some ills, but its got to be a workable situation with an OL that can provide some protect and there is a large need to properly develop the player with some talent.  Providing good coaching and some good line play makes developing a QB a lot easier.

 

This team exceeded expectations because of its turnover differential, playing respectable defense except for a stretch in the middle of the season, and an Offense that was somewhat capable and didn't make a lot of mistakes.

 

The team has seen another seismic shift in talent leaving (Incognito, Wood, Glenn) and would likely be very happy to have the same mistake-free and efficient QB play this year with the guys they have.  I just don't see it.  This team is being gutted again so that Beane and McDermott can have it exactly their way and that is going to eventually be a problem, unless they are absolutely great in the draft and Free Agency, and that isn't exactly easy.  Look I want to trust these guys, but I can't, they were very lucky last year and I think it goes to show just how bad the head coaching job was before McD (especially on the D side of things).  Maybe long term it works out and they recreate it the way they see fit, but they are pretty purposefully taking a step back to do so and hoping that coaching and smart signings can make up the difference along the way.

 

I think the Bills were a pretty talented team for the Rex years, and probably should have made the playoffs both years had Rex's D not been a complete disaster - they completely mismanaged the cap to get that talent and keep talent, but it was talented.  The Bills finally got some good coaching on D and had an Offense that had familiarity playing together upfront with a decent QB last year = playoffs.  Whaley's contracts have been an anchor on Beane to make hard decisions and get rid of guys they may have been better off keeping had they not been saddling the team with bad contracts.  I know that it had a lot to do with Glenn and Taylor being traded.  And I understand the need to eventually find a better QB.  But I still don't get why you get rid of Tyrod, because of the stability, mentorship and consistency he would bring you at the most important position, and it wasn't that much to pay until you know you have something better.  If the guys can't beat out Tyrod, then you keep on trying until you find one that does.  People will be looking fondly on Tyrod's play if these QBs this year look like a bunch of clowns.  I hope that's not the case, but the reality is that a rookie would be pretty impressive to play as well as Tyrod, and I just don't think McCarron or Peterman are even capable of that level of play.

 

I think that the Browns got a great contingency plan in Tyrod, and it took a lot of pressure off of them to make a deal with another team desperate for a QB, including the Bills - which may result in the Browns getting that damned pick back plus a lot more.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Browns shop that No. 1 pick on draft day after posturing that they want it and want to draft Allen - I mean that would be a insanely stupid No.1 overall pick anyhow.

 

The NFL is a QB driven league, but only the Bills get rid of a decent guy before they have a replacement that is as good or better.  At least the Chiefs were smart enough to see what Mahomes was all about for a year before trading Smith (I'm not sure it was a wise move, but it makes a lot more sense than what the Bills did).