More Analytics That Suggests This QB Class Is Average At Best...

[Domdab99]

...And that Josh Allen is a monster bust.

 

There’s a new approach to NFL QB projections — and the 2018 draft class is in trouble

 

Great article. One of the things that stands out is that, based on this analysis, Josh Allen's ceiling is Ryan Mallett. 

 

***

"Heading into the NFL Draft at the end of April, so much analysis always focuses on the idea of projection, on what a guy might be able to do, not necessarily what he’s done.

This makes sense, of course, to a point — so much of success at any level is based on situation, scheme, and circumstance. The right coach, teammates, or system can make an immense difference, plus these guys haven’t faced NFL talent, with NFL coaching, before. Plenty of QBs with great college stats have bombed out in the pros, and plenty with merely good stats have thrived.

NFL GMs can be forgiven for thinking that, once we get a kid in our system, it’s all gonna work out just fine. We can fix his flaws and maximize his talent. Stats will only tell you so much. They are, dare we say, for losers.

If we look at the right stats, however, and do so from the right perspective, we can still get further down the road than we would get just relying on basic stats or the eye test.

For instance, we definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats."

Edited April 5, 2018 by Domdab99

[Boca BIlls]

Your posts are average at best. Trade up get the QB the team wants and start making the playoffs.

Edited April 5, 2018 by Boca BIlls

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, Boca BIlls said:

Your posts are average at best. Trade up get the QB the team wants and start making the playoffs.

 

lol at least I read that article before having an opinion, Sparky. 

[Boca BIlls]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

 

lol at least I read that article before having an opinion, Sparky. 

I don't need to read some ****ty article you posted to know it means nothing. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

One reason there are always new approaches is because once they become older approaches, people find out they don't work.

 

Put another way, better to wait until something is time tested before believing it.

 

 

[ddaryl]

sbnation says boo hiss, scouts inc says 2 thumbs up on 4 QB's

 

YOU MAKE THE CALL

[26CornerBlitz]

OP confirmation bias. 

[What a Tuel]

So how does AJ McCarron and Tyrod Taylor hold up to this? Worse? Ok, we agree then, move up and draft a better QB.

[BuffaloHokie13]

A prospect's ceiling is his college stats? That might be the dumbest thing I read all draft season.

[Domdab99]

5 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

I don't need to read some ****ty article you posted to know it means nothing. 

 

[Boca BIlls]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

A prospect's ceiling is his college stats? That might be the dumbest thing I read all draft season.

Need to watch the crap the OP posts.

[Domdab99]

lol okay, I get it now....no one wants to actually discuss things, they just want to confirm what they already believe.

 

You see, for me, I'd love to move up and get a franchise QB. I just don't want it to be a huge boondoggle where we select a Blaine Gabbert or a Jake Locker. I don't know what the correct answer is - move up to #2 and sell the farm, move up to #6 and grab Mayfield if he's there, grab whoever falls to #12, or wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and draft a QB there, while filling out the roster with other picks.

 

I really don't know. 

 

But apparently, everyone here does. Good for you! Discussion be damned lol. 

[Westside Madness]

"plenty with merely good stats have thrived."

 

"we definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats."

 

These statements, from the same article, oppose each other. This, to me, significantly impacts how seriously I take it.

[What a Tuel]

6 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

lol okay, I get it now....no one wants to actually discuss things, they just want to confirm what they already believe.

 

You see, for me, I'd love to move up and get a franchise QB. I just don't want it to be a huge boondoggle where we select a Blaine Gabbert or a Jake Locker. I don't know what the correct answer is - move up to #2 and sell the farm, move up to #6 and grab Mayfield if he's there, grab whoever falls to #12, or wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and draft a QB there, while filling out the roster with other picks.

 

I really don't know. 

 

But apparently, everyone here does. Good for you! Discussion be damned lol. 

 

It has been discussed non stop for weeks though. If someone really knows the key, they should go apply for a job. Most of us just want the draft to come now and our course to be set for better or for worse.

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, What a Tuel said:

 

It has been discussed non stop for weeks though. If someone really knows the key, they should go apply for a job. Most of us just want the draft to come now and our course to be set for better or for worse.

 

Yeah, I just think it's funny that I share an article that might be interesting to some of you and I get shouted down like I wrote it. 

[Thurman#1]

You're duplicating another thread. Please check before posting.

 

"A New Approach to QB Projections ..."

 

 

Edited April 5, 2018 by Thurman#1

[DefenseWins]

8 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

lol okay, I get it now....no one wants to actually discuss things, they just want to confirm what they already believe.

 

You see, for me, I'd love to move up and get a franchise QB. I just don't want it to be a huge boondoggle where we select a Blaine Gabbert or a Jake Locker. I don't know what the correct answer is - move up to #2 and sell the farm, move up to #6 and grab Mayfield if he's there, grab whoever falls to #12, or wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and draft a QB there, while filling out the roster with other picks.

 

I really don't know. 

 

But apparently, everyone here does. Good for you! Discussion be damned lol. 

 

As if any one of us wants another Gabbert or a Locker. I trust in McBean's judgements partly based on the moves he has already made. That is all we can do right now. It's his job thats on the line here ultimately. I think everybody on this board understands that there are two different points of view on this draft and that none of us are gonna change our respective positions. 

[SouthNYfan]

10 minutes ago, Westside Madness said:

"plenty with merely good stats have thrived."

 

"we definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats."

 

These statements, from the same article, oppose each other. This, to me, significantly impacts how seriously I take it.

 

It's because you aren't looking at the "right stats" to show his ceiling.

You know, the cherry picked stats that bolster the pov that the op and article are coming from.

 

 

7 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

It has been discussed non stop for weeks though. If someone really knows the key, they should go apply for a job. Most of us just want the draft to come now and our course to be set for better or for worse.

 

Yeah I just want the band-aid ripped off at this point.

If we bleed out, so be it.

 

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

It's because you aren't looking at the "right stats" to show his ceiling.

You know, the cherry picked stats that bolster the pov that the op and article are coming from.

 

 

 

Once again, I didn't write the article, Numbnuts. 

[Coach55]

Great article and post.  Fully agree on Allen.  Rosen now in the same bucket.  Would love to know how Lauletta faired as I think he may be the most successful prospect in this draft class. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Can the draft please happen already so we can move on to talking up our 6th rounder and some udfa as the next hall of famer?!?!? 

[SouthNYfan]

9 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Once again, I didn't write the article, Numbnuts. 

 

No, but you linked it, and are acting like it's gospel.

Moron.

[4merper4mer]

5 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

It's because you aren't looking at the "right stats" to show his ceiling.

You know, the cherry picked stats that bolster the pov that the op and article are coming from.

 

 

 

Yeah I just want the band-aid ripped off at this point.

If we bleed out, so be it.

 

Do people love Josh Allen because Todd McShay told them they should?  How about instead of bashing the article, someone comes up with one QB in the history of football that had stats as crappy as Allen's in college and became a good pro.  Just one.  More would be better but one is a start.  That would refute the article and the method.

 

But nope.  Wishes and buts are now candy and nuts and Allen will bring us a wonderful Christmas because Santa Todd said.  He will be even better if we give the Giants 3 first rounders, 2 seconds and two thirds for their #2.  I think if we throw in Eichel so the Giants can get him over to the Rangers then Allen is HOF material.

[GunnerBill]

Is an interesting article Domdab.  Thanks for posting.  I am in the all in on a trade up crowd but I still find this article a very interesting read.  When deciding anything in life you should always look at evidence that supports the opposite point of view rather than dismiss it. 

 

Personally I think the only way to evaluate college QBs is watching their tape and looking at whether they are good at doing the things that win in the NFL.  Those things are pretty universally accepted:

- be accurate (especially in the short and intermediate) range;

- have a consistent and repeatable motion (footwork and release) that stands up under pressure (doesn't need to be a classic motion but needs to be consistent and repeatable);

- be an anticipatory thrower;

- be good decision maker;

- make the high degree of difficulty throws;

 

After that you get into the other stuff - how well does he move, how big is his arm, how good is he in the clutch (I said cLutch Baker you can stop grabbing yourself now), is he a leader etc... but that comes later.  Those 5 things above are the ones you have to focus on - how well do they do those things.  

 

 

Edited April 5, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Adam]

41 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

Your posts are average at best. Trade up get the QB the team wants and start making the playoffs.

We made the playoffs last year

[dpberr]

Even a time machine couldn't change the mysteriously emotionally invested fanboys these quartbacks have on the board.

 

"We went into the future. Josh Allen is out of the league by 2020. Here are the newspapers to prove it."

 

Emotionally charged fanboy response:

 

"You don't know that for sure."

[Madd Charlie]

Everybody is draft drunk it's pretty clear the article is correct about the fact that there are no elite QBs. If there were we would already know for sure who the top 2 are and we don't have a clue. There's not even agreement on who the top QB is that tells you all you need to know. The guys who end up in the right system have a shot the rest will be average or busts. 

[SouthNYfan]

10 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Do people love Josh Allen because Todd McShay told them they should?  How about instead of bashing the article, someone comes up with one QB in the history of football that had stats as crappy as Allen's in college and became a good pro.  Just one.  More would be better but one is a start.  That would refute the article and the method.

 

But nope.  Wishes and buts are now candy and nuts and Allen will bring us a wonderful Christmas because Santa Todd said.  He will be even better if we give the Giants 3 first rounders, 2 seconds and two thirds for their #2.  I think if we throw in Eichel so the Giants can get him over to the Rangers then Allen is HOF material.

 

I read the long, dumba$$ article that says by the end started that Josh Rosen's ceiling is Brandon Weeden, Darnold's is Colt McCoy, Rudolp's is hard Goff, and Allen is Tebow/kizer.

Kizer and McCoy barely have any NFL stats to go off of, yet this guy claims to be using the first 4 years of NFL player's stats as projections, when kizer only has one season under his belt.

 

I honestly don't know which QB will be the best, nobody does, and every single scout uses different metrics and film study to project a draftee.

Articles like this one which basically claim to have figured out some magical, convoluted system of advanced metrics to project don't mean crap.

Moneyball failed in baseball because it relied solely on advanced metrics.

 

[reddogblitz]

51 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

Trade up get the QB the team wants and start making the playoffs.

 

its as easy as that.

 

Its amazing that the other 21 teams that don't have "franchise QB"s have never been able to figure that out like you have!

 

Start making the playoffs? Did you muiss the 2017 season? The drought is dead like the wicked Witch of the East.

 

I don't know about systems but I'm not sold on any of these guys.

Edited April 5, 2018 by reddogblitz

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Madd Charlie said:

Everybody is draft drunk it's pretty clear the article is correct about the fact that there are no elite QBs. If there were we would already know for sure who the top 2 are and we don't have a clue. There's not even agreement on who the top QB is that tells you all you need to know. The guys who end up in the right system have a shot the rest will be average or busts. 

 

And why can't that be because there are more good ones than usual? 

[DrDawkinstein]

Why are you actively competing for the title of "Most **** Threads"?

[BillsMafioso]

He’s got a point. Tom Brady’s ceiling is and always has been Brian Scalabrine.

[ndirish1978]

SBnation is not the most reputable of sources OP. I see you're catching some flak for posting this (it does seem like you're just posting things that back up your already established opinion, but that's not really a unique thing here so I won't complain about that). It would probably be a better idea to back up your position with articles from actual professionals and not a website whose content is amateur at best. When you see Scouts Inc has the top 4 prospects at QB graded in the 90s, this article from Bill Connelly, who is not even a professional writer, doesn't really hold that much water. 

[HappyDays]

44 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

A prospect's ceiling is his college stats? That might be the dumbest thing I read all draft season.

 

If you read the article they're actually talking about college success rate which is a Football Outsiders metric. They looked at 38 QBs drafted between 2010 and 2017 that have thrown at least 300 passes in the NFL. Not one of those 38 QBs exceed their college success rate in the NFL. Only 3 of those 38 came within 3 percentage points of their college success rate.

 

So when you look at Josh Allen his college success rate was 43.3%. If you assume the best outcome for him - coming within 3% of that in the pros - his ceiling is 40.3% which is right around Ryan Mallett's success rate.

 

That being said, he calculated the correlation between college success rate and NFL success rate at just 0.272 which is barely even a weak positive correlation in traditional statistics. So success rate isn't a great tool but you can seemingly determine their ceiling at least.

 

If Josh Allen matches or exceed his college success rate he will be the first QB to do so since at least 2010 and he only has about a 7.9% chance of even reaching that Mallett level. I haven't found any analytical evaluations that project him as anything but a major bust.

[Madd Charlie]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And why can't that be because there are more good ones than usual? 

Not impossible technically but when you look at the critiques of the prospects it doesn't seem very likely. Too short, bad accuracy, not sure football will keep his interest, inaccurate, too many interceptions ect. These are things that were not being said about Manning, Luck, and other "can't miss" prospects

[Rigotz]

Tom Brady's "ceiling":

Junior Year: 14/10 TD INT Ratio, 61% completion 

Senior Year: 16/6 TD INT Ratio, 61% completion

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, Madd Charlie said:

Everybody is draft drunk it's pretty clear the article is correct about the fact that there are no elite QBs. If there were we would already know for sure who the top 2 are and we don't have a clue. There's not even agreement on who the top QB is that tells you all you need to know. The guys who end up in the right system have a shot the rest will be average or busts. 

 

Whether they are elite QB's or not is to be determined.    

 

Elite prospects is another matter.......there are elite prospects at QB in this draft.......there are 5 guys in this group that could go #1 in a given draft year, IMO.  

 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

If you read the article they're actually talking about college success rate which is a Football Outsiders metric. They looked at 38 QBs drafted between 2010 and 2017 that have thrown at least 300 passes in the NFL. Not one of those 38 QBs exceed their college success rate in the NFL. Only 3 of those 38 came within 3 percentage points of their college success rate.

 

So when you look at Josh Allen his college success rate was 43.3%. If you assume the best outcome for him - coming within 3% of that in the pros - his ceiling is 40.3% which is right around Ryan Mallett's success rate.

 

That being said, he calculated the correlation between college success rate and NFL success rate at just 0.272 which is barely even a weak positive correlation in traditional statistics. So success rate isn't a great tool but you can seemingly determine their ceiling at least.

 

If Josh Allen matches or exceed his college success rate he will be the first QB to do so since at least 2010 and he only has about a 7.9% chance of even reaching that Mallett level. I haven't found any analytical evaluations that project him as anything but a major bust.

I read the statement, which is a standalone sentence, in the largest font in the OP. It makes no reference to their college success rate. It says their definitive ceiling is their college stats. If it said their ceiling is their college success rate I might have dug into how they arrive at their college success rate, but it isn't what was said.

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Madd Charlie said:

Not impossible technically but when you look at the critiques of the prospects it doesn't seem very likely. Too short, bad accuracy, not sure football will keep his interest, inaccurate, too many interceptions ect. These are things that were not being said about Manning, Luck, and other "can't miss" prospects

 

There were PLENTY of questions on Manning, to the point that the Colts were debating between him and Leaf right up to the draft.

Luck had the fewest questions, for sure, and he hasnt exactly been in the running to be the next GOAT either. So what is all that worth?

 

This entire song & dance to try to accurately predict which QB will be successful is mostly BS. Especially from folks as far removed as us fans.

 

You can try to look for trends and similarities, but the fact is, EVERY rookie situation will be different. Just because one player did something years ago doesnt mean that any player this year will be the same. Success or Failure doesnt happen in a vacuum. Just because a player does well on one team does NOT guarantee he'd be just as good everywhere else. Coaching, scheme, heck even personal stuff, all factor in.

 

All we know for sure is the Bills need a QB. And there seem to be plenty of prospects in this draft.

 

 

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I read the statement, which is a standalone sentence, in the largest font in the OP. It makes no reference to their college success rate. It says their definitive ceiling is their college stats. If it said their ceiling is their college success rate I might have dug into how they arrive at their college success rate, but it isn't what was said.

 

Read the whole article, not just the posted blurb. He specifically mentions rate statistics and says success rate is the one with the highest correlation from college to the pros.

 

Quote

 

It makes sense, right? Just as we don’t expect a blue-chip running back to average 12 yards per carry in college like he perhaps did in high school, a college back who averaged seven yards per carry in college probably isn’t going to do so in the NFL. And the odds of a quarterback matching his college stats at the next level are almost null.

 

That is, he won’t match his rate stats. Keenum, for instance, isn’t throwing 50 times per game in the NFL like he did in his junior year at Houston, so his per-game yardage totals will be different. But things like completion rate, interception rate, etc., can be more telling. And success rate can be extremely telling.

 

 

Quote

 

Stats will never tell you everything about what a player can do. In this case, though, it tells you what certain players probably can’t.

 

And in the case of Josh Allen, it would take a spectacular outlier performance — one that hasn’t happened this decade — to live up to the expectations of the top-five or top-10 pick it appears he will become.

 

 

So success rate isn't a perfect tool. But out of a sample size of 38 QBs it has found a ceiling you can expect for each QB - an NFL success rate 3% lower than their college success rate - and that ceiling isn't very likely anyways (7.9% of those 38 QBs hit it). Now 38 is a fairly small sample size, maybe there's a 1 in 40 chance that a QB will exceed his college success rate in the pros and this sample size wasn't large enough to find one. But it paints a troubling picture.

Edited April 5, 2018 by HappyDays