Jordan Palmer on Josh Allen

[Thurman#1]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/21/themmqb-podcast-peter-king-bears-head-coach-matt-nagy-jordan-palmer-quarterback-coach-sam-darnold

 

At about 1:06:30

 

Worth noting that Palmer has no financial interest in any of the QBs he works with, but he's been working with Darnold and Allen very extensively.

 

By the way, I tried to find if this had been written about, I searched the boards, couldn't find anything. If this has already been posted, I apologize. Anyway ...

 

King:  "Josh Allen completed 56% of his passes at Wyoming in his career. In 1987 that might've been pretty good. In 2017, that stinks. So what did you do with him and what gives you any reason to think that he's going to be a more accurate pro than he was collegian?"

 

Palmer:  "It's a good question and I'll start by saying I'm a guy that believes that the most important thing you've got to do in football as a quarterback you've got to be accurate and you've got to be a guy who can complete balls. And the other thing is I don't really care if you have a giant arm. Because most of the balls that are thrown in the league are ... I call them layers ... you're layering it in there. You don't throw the ball as hard as you can every play.

 

"With that being said, when I dug deeper on Josh, you know I've seen every play a bunch of times and I've spent a ton of time with him. And I really know the story, like way more than any front office does, just because of the exposure that I've had to it. I look at it two ways. You look at the 56% completion percentage ... there's what he's doing with the ball and there's what's on the receiving end.

 

"And what's happening on the receiving end at Wyoming ... he wouldn't say any of this stuff, I can just call a spade a spade, and the front office guys that are watching this tape, they're going to see it too. There's a lot of discrepancies around depth and the angle and some of those guys couldn't catch it (inaudible) throw the ball hard.

 

"And they had to manufacture completions and they weren't the best team on the field every week. They have a great coaching staff, they have a couple really good players, but Josh is running around trying to make plays. So when you don't have timing and separation ... I'm not saying everybody has to be open every play but when you don't have timing and separation it causes you to wait to see it open and then throw it late.

 

"And when you couple those two things together and he has a bazooka attached to his shoulder, they're not in an offense where they're trying to get as many completions as they can and kick bubble screens the whole time. One of the things that manipulates what you just said about 1983 versus now is the amount of essentially handoffs that are completed in college football. The swings, the bubbles the (nows?) the quick slants, they didn't have a lot of those, so that right now is going to trim down some completions right there.

 

"And then on Josh's end, the part that he has to own is his inaccuracy a lot of it was tied to a couple of mechanical things. The root of it, though, mechanics-wise was the base. So when you watch him on tape next time ... what you'll see is he'll get up on his toes and bounce and immediately take a big front stride with his left foot. I call it an overstride. When you overstride it puts you in a position where you can do a couple of things wrong now. You can lean a little too much, you can not bring your hip through so you're going to bend forward. and when you do either of those two things your elbow is going to drop and your release point is going to lower and it's going to be hard to put touch on it."

 

...

 

"To boil it down there was two things happening. On the receiving end, there's a lack of continuity, a lack of timing and a lack of separation. On Josh's end, he was putting himself in a position mechanically where he was overstriding and it was causing him to miss.

 

"We've addressed the overstride. You saw it a little bit in Mobile you saw it a lot more in Indianapolis and we're going to see it a ton on Friday in Wyoming. I think he'll only miss two or three throws on Friday out of 70. And he's going to be throwing to guys at the next level where it's going to be (inaudible) on timing and accuracy and separation. 

 

"So, I'm big on ... I wanna see a guy who can complete balls. And I don't care about arm talent. But this dude is probably as talented an arm as I've ever seen. And I've seen him throw a lot in three months. And over the next couple of years you're going to see a guy who's going to be deadly accurate. I think he's going to be a superstar."

 

 

 

To me, there's always been a weird disconnect between the obvious completion percentage problem and the way that the pundits and scouts and sources talk about him. And this strikes me as the likely reason why.

 

I've always had real questions about him and hoped the Bills would avoid him. I no longer feel that way. 

 

But feel free to disagree.  :-)

 

It's certainly a really interesting segment with Jordan Palmer, with a lot on Darnold and a lot on QBing in general.

 

 

Edited April 3, 2018 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by GunnerBill

[4merper4mer]

He does have a financial interest even if it is indirect.  He wants his students drafted high for the future of his business/reputation.  I'm not saying he is wrong, just that your statement about his interest is incomplete.

[Teddy KGB]

That guy who praised Jordan Palmers footwork doesn’t seem so silly anymore.  

[SouthNYfan]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

 

Random nitpicking, but do you just think Allen is a 50/50 guy to be great/terrible?

People are calling it a coinflip.

The thing with high ceiling guys is, say he only reaches 80% of his projected ceiling, isn't that still pretty good?

If he hits 60% of his potential, is that still okay too, and a decent player?

It just reminds me of a lot of the hyperbole (which I'm guilty of too at times) of a guy is either "great" or "he sucks".

There is a lot in between those two points.

Granted, with a top pick, you want him much more towards "great" than "sucks" so I get the risk with a guy like Allen who has a wide margin if possible outcomes.

Just saying, is it really a "coinflip"? Is he more like a 70/30 good/bad projection? Or a 30/70 good/bad projection? I think that depends on the evaluator, as we have seen a lot of variation in people's thoughts about him.

 

 

The second part I agree with you, with the overstride you might have missed, but I wonder if that was a big factor or not?

I'm not saying he didn't overstride, I'm just wondering, as you said, how many throws were inaccurate due to that, and how many throws where he did overstride did he actually complete?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Random nitpicking, but do you just think Allen is a 50/50 guy to be great/terrible?

 

Yep that is pretty much what I think. I think with his natural gifts if you can get consistent accuracy then there is no way he isn't at least a franchise level top 10 NFL QB.  Equally I think if you can't it is very unlikely he is able to move the ball consistently enough to be a solid NFL starter.  I'm all for coin flips on high upside project guys.... just not in round 1 of the NFL draft. 

[mannc]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/21/themmqb-podcast-peter-king-bears-head-coach-matt-nagy-jordan-palmer-quarterback-coach-sam-darnold

 

Worth noting that Palmer has no financial interest in any of the QBs he works with, but he's been working with Darnold and Allen very extensively.

 

 

How is that possible?  Is Palmer a charity operation?

[ganesh]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

Agreed. They said the same things for EJ Manuel.  Bad receivers on the team...blah..blah.

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep that is pretty much what I think. I think with his natural gifts if you can get consistent accuracy then there is no way he isn't at least a franchise level top 10 NFL QB.  Equally I think if you can't it is very unlikely he is able to move the ball consistently enough to be a solid NFL starter.  I'm all for coin flips on high upside project guys.... just not in round 1 of the NFL draft. 

Bill, historically, a 50/50 chance to be a franchise qb merits a top 3 overall pick.  “Coin flip” odds aren’t too bad in this circumstance.  How does Allen  not merit a first round pick?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Bill, historically, a 50/50 chance to be a franchise qb merits a top 3 overall pick.  “Coin flip” odds aren’t too bad in this circumstance.  How does Allen  not merit a first round pick?

 

In my mind because the floor is so low.  To merit a 1st round pick I want to believe that even if you don't become my franchise guy you might be capable of contributing in some way.  As high as the ceiling is Allen to me the floor is total, epic level bust. You are gambling on so many levels with him the way I see it.  How many of those genuine coin flip types have worked out?  I feel like most guys who go top 10 have a higher ceiling than Josh Allen.  To me he is a project you need to sit him at least a year and you need to rebuild some of his game.  

[auburnbillsbacker]

A lot of things factor into a QBs completion percentage.  Do they throw a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage?  How often do they throw the ball down the field?  The talent of their WRs.  Many people on here simply look at the 56% completion percentage and think they have done enough research to judge Allen.  Dig a little deeper and you still might not like him but at least then you can make an informed opinion.    

[SouthNYfan]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep that is pretty much what I think. I think with his natural gifts if you can get consistent accuracy then there is no way he isn't at least a franchise level top 10 NFL QB.  Equally I think if you can't it is very unlikely he is able to move the ball consistently enough to be a solid NFL starter.  I'm all for coin flips on high upside project guys.... just not in round 1 of the NFL draft. 

 

Interesting.

What about later in the first, if say, he's available at #12 (which he won't be) assuming we cannot trade up?

 

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In my mind because the floor is so low.  To merit a 1st round pick I want to believe that even if you don't become my franchise guy you might be capable of contributing in some way.  As high as the ceiling is Allen to me the floor is total, epic level bust. You are gambling on so many levels with him the way I see it.  How many of those genuine coin flip types have worked out?  I feel like most guys who go top 10 have a higher ceiling than Josh Allen.  To me he is a project you need to sit him at least a year and you need to rebuild some of his game.  

 

I feel you there.

I think that sometimes you have to go with the risk though.

I know it's a gamblers' mentality, but the payoff could be the next Favre instead of a mid-level, above average guy.

Again, I'm not advocating for or against the guy, but I wouldn't be upset if we took him, just like I wouldn't be upset if we took a different QB.

[hemma]

Well, if we do draft him, sounds like Palmer may end up being our QB coach.

I'd think he'd sit all year.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Interesting.

What about later in the first, if say, he's available at #12 (which he won't be) assuming we cannot trade up?

 

 

I feel you there.

I think that sometimes you have to go with the risk though.

I know it's a gamblers' mentality, but the payoff could be the next Favre instead of a mid-level, above average guy.

Again, I'm not advocating for or against the guy, but I wouldn't be upset if we took him, just like I wouldn't be upset if we took a different QB.

 

The Bills have to try and come out of the 1st round with a Quarterback.  I don't know a ton about AJ McCarron I confess but my expectations for him to be the answer for us are extremely low.  I suppose I will be less annoyed if they select Josh Allen at #12 than if they pass on Quarterbacks and take a DT and a LB at #12 and #22.  But I will not feel great about the chances that we have found our guy. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Just because it can be explained doesn't mean it can be corrected.  It's that simple.  Can he make quick decisions under pressure and get the ball out accurately?  We have no idea, because he's never shown he can do it.  Ever.  If I'm a GM with my job on the line, I'd prefer to have an idea.

[SouthNYfan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills have to try and come out of the 1st round with a Quarterback.  I don't know a ton about AJ McCarron I confess but my expectations for him to be the answer for us are extremely low.  I suppose I will be less annoyed if they select Josh Allen at #12 than if they pass on Quarterbacks and take a DT and a LB at #12 and #22.  But I will not feel great about the chances that we have found our guy. 

 

That's fair.

I think that's moot though, as I cannot see him being there at #12.

Cleveland and NYG  hold the keys to it all.

If Cleveland takes Allen, then what?

NYG go Darnold and sit him a year?

That leaves only Mayfield or Rosen available after #3, with the Jets taking one, and Denver probably grabbing the remainder if they like him.

Does NYG go Barkley then, letting Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield all shift down to the Jets and broncos, now leaving the remainder to fall?

Maybe the broncos don't take one, then two of them fall?

 

This draft is completely crazy.

[aristocrat]

All qbs have to go into the right situation. Right coach, team, front office etc. I’m sure there have been many qbs who came out and into the wrong place and we’re ruined cause of it. If we have a top five defense and top run game the qb can just learn the game and grow while winning.  

[racketmaster]

First off thanks for sharing OP as that is a great interview. Listening to Palmer talk just confirmed in my mind that Bills would love Darnold or Allen. Backup option would be a guy like Rudolph. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

 

 

Yes, there is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching.

 

Do listen to the interview. The Palmer interview starts around 42 minutes in. Jordan Palmer isn't just an ex-pro QB these days. He's arguably the most highly-respected QB guru out there. He talks a lot about DeShaun Watson, another guy he worked with extensively. That was also interesting. He's worked a lot with Stidham also.

 

And he says he's addressed this and that Allen got better in Mobile, better yet at the combine and will be a ton better at his pro day. That should be easy enough to eyeball as confirmation that Palmer is onto something.

 

So, yeah, you're taking it on faith that he's improved over the offseason without facing live rushes. Of course, you're assuming the same thing with every QB out there in every year. You're taking it on trust with every QB. Everyone has to take different kinds of huge steps upwards.

 

I'm not pounding the table for the guy. But to me there's been a wild disconnect between the obvious problem and the fact that guys like Mayock love the guy. Mayock has him as the #2 after Darnold. Why? Kiper has him as the #1. Why? I haven't understood it. After hearing this, I understand. Again, feel free to disagree.

 

 

53 minutes ago, mannc said:

How is that possible?  Is Palmer a charity operation?

 

 

The agents pay him, and they pay him only for the three month QB camp he puts people through. He has no financial interest in whether or where they get drafted. He's already been paid.

 

 

26 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Just because it can be explained doesn't mean it can be corrected.  It's that simple.  Can he make quick decisions under pressure and get the ball out accurately?  We have no idea, because he's never shown he can do it.  Ever.  If I'm a GM with my job on the line, I'd prefer to have an idea.

 

 

Yes, agreed.

 

But again, Palmer has been working with him every day. He says it's already been addressed and that his accuracy has been improving. You can choose to disbelieve that if you like, or you can suspect that when he's being rushed he might regress. Fair enough. But there's already some serious indication that a change has been made. It might stick. Might not. But it might.

Edited April 3, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

 

He kind of addresses that, no? 

 

I agree with you, I'm interested if now that I've read his comments about an overstride, if I can pick up what Palmer is talking about.  Because I saw the same thing that you commented about, inaccuracy where I couldn't see an obvious mechanics issue (vs Jackson, Rudolph, or Mayfield where I could say at times "oh, that throw will be off" before the ball left his arm)

 

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He kind of addresses that, no? 

 

I agree with you, I'm interested if now that I've read his comments about an overstride, if I can pick up what Palmer is talking about.  Because I saw the same thing that you commented about, inaccuracy where I couldn't see an obvious mechanics issue (vs Jackson, Rudolph, or Mayfield where I could say at times "oh, that throw will be off" before the ball left his arm)

 

 

It's basically the same lower-body mechanical flaw that I pointed out in my evaluation; I characterized it as an unstable base.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

How is that possible?  Is Palmer a charity operation?

Exactly. He's a paid spokesman at this point. And he stands to make out well in the future from other potential clients if Allen shows well.

 

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

A lot of things factor into a QBs completion percentage.  Do they throw a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage?  How often do they throw the ball down the field?  The talent of their WRs.  Many people on here simply look at the 56% completion percentage and think they have done enough research to judge Allen.  Dig a little deeper and you still might not like him but at least then you can make an informed opinion.    

 

This study dug a lot deeper and Josh Allen is far and away the least accurate QB in this draft. 

 

https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/30143754/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking.pdf

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/21/themmqb-podcast-peter-king-bears-head-coach-matt-nagy-jordan-palmer-quarterback-coach-sam-darnold

Worth noting that Palmer has no financial interest in any of the QBs he works with, but he's been working with Darnold and Allen very extensively.

 

FWIW I don't see that this is possible.  Someone is paying him.

 

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

"And then on Josh's end, the part that he has to own is his inaccuracy a lot of it was tied to a couple of mechanical things. The root of it, though, mechanics-wise was the base. So when you watch him on tape next time ... what you'll see is he'll get up on his toes and bounce and immediately take a big front stride with his left foot. I call it an overstride. When you overstride it puts you in a position where you can do a couple of things wrong now. You can lean a little too much, you can not bring your hip through so you're going

to bend forward. and when you do either of those two things your elbow is going to drop and your release point is going to lower and it's going to be hard to put touch on it."

 

This may be true, but here's the thing: if you've been overstriding for 4 or 6 or 8 years, can you really fix it in an off-season?  I'll confess, I was "in" on the notion Fitzpatrick could fix his accuracy problems by working on his footwork.  Now I'm more, unless this is a guy who sits for 2-3 years and rebuilds his muscle memory while he's not "under fire", I don't think so.

 

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

Mayock love the guy. Mayock has him as the #2 after Darnold. Why? Kiper has him as the #1. Why? I haven't understood it. After hearing this, I understand. Again, feel free to disagree.

 

Ever since Kiper went over the top about The Pickle and then Kiper and Mayock both went nuts about Blaine Gabbert, I've been wondering what was up. 

Gabbert, you may recall, was a spread-offense guy who "looked the way you want your QB to look" and had a great wonderlic score - 42 or something - who both Mayock and Kiper projected at ahead of Cam Newton.  I have wondered ever since what was up.

 

I have wondered if some agents pay off the media pundits to fluff their clients.  It was confirmed to me that this happens by someone who is involved in scouting, but I'm unable to evaluate how likely it is that this person really knows.

 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Ever since Kiper went over the top about The Pickle and then Kiper and Mayock both went nuts about Blaine Gabbert, I've been wondering what was up. 

Gabbert, you may recall, was a spread-offense guy who "looked the way you want your QB to look" and had a great wonderlic score - 42 or something - who both Mayock and Kiper projected at ahead of Cam Newton.  I have wondered ever since what was up.

 

I have wondered if some agents pay off the media pundits to fluff their clients.  It was confirmed to me that this happens by someone who is involved in scouting, but I'm unable to evaluate how likely it is that this person really knows.

 

 

Kiper and Mayock love big, strong, athletic QBs who have huge arms and terrible game tape. 

They pound the table for these type of players every year. 

[CommonCents]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

FWIW I don't see that this is possible.  Someone is paying him.

 

 

This may be true, but here's the thing: if you've been overstriding for 4 or 6 or 8 years, can you really fix it in an off-season?  I'll confess, I was "in" on the notion Fitzpatrick could fix his accuracy problems by working on his footwork.  Now I'm more, unless this is a guy who sits for 2-3 years and rebuilds his muscle memory while he's not "under fire", I don't think so.

 

 

Ever since Kiper went over the top about The Pickle and then Kiper and Mayock both went nuts about Blaine Gabbert, I've been wondering what was up. 

Gabbert, you may recall, was a spread-offense guy who "looked the way you want your QB to look" and had a great wonderlic score - 42 or something - who both Mayock and Kiper projected at ahead of Cam Newton.  I have wondered ever since what was up.

 

I have wondered if some agents pay off the media pundits to fluff their clients.  It was confirmed to me that this happens by someone who is involved in scouting, but I'm unable to evaluate how likely it is that this person really knows.

 

I have said this before. Mayock does favors for players, agents, and coaches. Heck he even did it for BB with Mallet one TC. I can still hear his voice ringing through my head, "He POPPED today at practice" Yikes.

 

Mayock is a good listen and an intelligent guy but you have to take everything with a grain. Palmer is included in that, even if he isn't being paid by Allen his comments and results will still impact his financials.

[thebandit27]

11 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Kiper and Mayock love big, strong, athletic QBs who have huge arms and terrible game tape. 

They pound the table for these type of players every year. 

 

Hence why he had a guy like Sanchez over guys like Stafford and Freeman in 2009, right?

 

Also why he ranked guys like Watson and Trubisky over guys like Mahomes and Kizer last year.

 

Or Goff ahead of Paxton Lynch in 2016, or Mariota ahead of Winston in 2015.

 

Or, perhaps he simply weighs each player evaluation differently.  That's why a guy like Johnny Manziel can end up his QB1 in 2014 instead of better players in Bortles/Carr/Garappolo/Bridgewater.

 

It's odd to me how crazy Josh Allen has made some folks--evaluate him on the merits; don't make blatantly false statements in an attempt to strengthen a position.

13 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

I have said this before. Mayock does favors for players, agents, and coaches. Heck he even did it for BB with Mallet one TC. I can still hear his voice ringing through my head, "He POPPED today at practice" Yikes.

 

Mayock is a good listen and an intelligent guy but you have to take everything with a grain. Palmer is included in that, even if he isn't being paid by Allen his comments and results will still impact his financials.

 

Mayock isn't exactly the doing-favors type from what I understand.  He's got his favorite traits (and if you go to Boston College or Notre Dame, you're likely to be propped up), but he calls 'em like he sees 'em.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Hence why he had a guy like Sanchez over guys like Stafford and Freeman in 2009, right?

 

Also why he ranked guys like Watson and Trubisky over guys like Mahomes and Kizer last year.

 

Or Goff ahead of Paxton Lynch in 2016, or Mariota ahead of Winston in 2015.

 

Or, perhaps he simply weighs each player evaluation differently.  That's why a guy like Johnny Manziel can end up his QB1 in 2014 instead of better players in Bortles/Carr/Garappolo/Bridgewater.

 

All I'm seeing here is that they've liked a bunch of guys who are busts. 

 

As I've been saying, neither Kiper or Mayock know anything about how to evaluate a QB. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep that is pretty much what I think. I think with his natural gifts if you can get consistent accuracy then there is no way he isn't at least a franchise level top 10 NFL QB.  Equally I think if you can't it is very unlikely he is able to move the ball consistently enough to be a solid NFL starter.  I'm all for coin flips on high upside project guys.... just not in round 1 of the NFL draft. 

If someone is looking for a quick fix at qb he is not the answer. If you are not going to work with him and coach him up then you are wasting your time with him. The worst thing to do with a qb such as Allen is throw him into the fray when he is not ready. 

 

Allen is probably not going to be a prolific passer who with nibbling short passes is going to accumulate proficiency stats. If your offense is predicated on those type of pass substituting for run plays then he is not a qb you should invest in. 

 

Economy and compact cars will never be good muscle cars. With Allen you know what type of qb he is and work with his talents and not his deficiencies. The issue for Allen is the same issue for Lamar Jackson. You are making a projection based on physical skill and are hoping that you can refine a raw talent. He's not a prospect I would fear having; he is a prospect I  would love to have. 

 

 

[BillsFan17]

[NewEraBills]

Look, the thing with Allen is when you look at what happened with him between 2016 season and 2017 season what you will see is the coaching staff got conservative to try to help him.  They reigned things in.  But notice, nothing really changed.  TD/INT ratio, completion percentage are still statistically about the same.

 

I get it, he has the frame and he has the arm.  But let's be real, having a strong arm is in some ways overrated.  Palmer even alludes to it by saying that you are layering not throwing fastballs.  It's icing on the cake but hopefully, the cake is good.  If the cake isn't good then no icing is going to save its bad flavor.  Allen's biggest problem is he just hasn't discerned when to take heat off of passes.  While he was more accurate in shorts, you could still see him putting a lot of heat on the passes.

 

  I'm not completely opposed to Allen.  But there are situations that I'm opposed to for him.  I'm opposed to taking him in the top 10.  Secondly, I'm opposed to him being the guy for the Bills.  If the Bills are looking for someone to come in and compete at a high level and possibly land the starting job, then Allen is not that guy.  He's a project.  I can't get behind taking a project in the top 10, neither can I get behind the Bills trading away major assets for a project who won't be ready for at least another season if not more.  We need someone who can come in and start getting the job done NOW.

[Thurman#1]

17 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Kiper and Mayock love big, strong, athletic QBs who have huge arms and terrible game tape. 

They pound the table for these type of players every year. 

 

 

No. Kizer maybe had the biggest arm last year and he was 4th for Mayock and Webb who also had a big arm was 5th while Watson was 1st and Trubisky, who doesn't have a strong arm, was 2nd.

 

Mayock makes  a point to say, every year, that a big arm isn't that important once you have enough arm to make all the throws. He always scoffs about JaMarcus Russell throwing 70 yards from his knees. Every year.

 

In 2016 the biggest armed guy was probably Cardale Jones. Didn't make any lists, including Mayock's and Kiper's. In 2015 he had Mariota above everyone. 

 

If anything what you see is a pretty good grasp of who's going to be successful and who's not. I think he liked Manziel too, so he's far from perfect but he doesn't really take off-the-field stuff into consideration 

[NewEraBills]

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

 

 

I think Billick is just trying to say look, folks, there are red flags here that you would do best to pay attention to.  The Ravens took Boller in the teens.  Allen is being considered a top 5 or even 3 pick off of the same traits that Boller had, namely a frame and a strong arm.

 

Honestly, because there are so many factors that historically count against Allen being great, I'm actually rooting for the guy.  I hope he bucks the trend.  I'd be scared as hell to take him though.

[NewEraBills]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No. Kizer maybe had the biggest arm last year and he was 4th for Mayock and Webb who also had a big arm was 5th while Watson was 1st and Trubisky, who doesn't have a strong arm, was 2nd.

 

Mayock makes  a point to say, every year, that a big arm isn't that important once you have enough arm to make all the throws. He always scoffs about JaMarcus Russell throwing 70 yards from his knees. Every year.

 

In 2016 the biggest armed guy was probably Cardale Jones. Didn't make any lists, including Mayock's and Kiper's. In 2015 he had Mariota above everyone. 

 

If anything what you see is a pretty good grasp of who's going to be successful and who's not. I think he liked Manziel too, so he's far from perfect but he doesn't really take off-the-field stuff into consideration 

 

I think the thing is Mayock and Kiper is that they fall in love with TRAITS and they rank the guys that way.  Mayock does lean a bit more towards tape on some players, but in some cases, he'll take the traits over the tape and I think that's the case with Allen.  So ultimately, I think the discussion on Allen and where to draft him really depends on what you are going to weigh more heavily, his tape or his traits.  He has A+ traits.  But to me he has D+/D- tape and it's not just because of the talent around him.  Again when you look at his last two season, the coaching staff actually reigned things in to try to clean up his game.  He was more conservative but there was no real change in him as a QB.  His tape tells me and the numbers tell me that this guy has a hell of a lot to work on.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, there is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching.

 

Do listen to the interview. The Palmer interview starts around 42 minutes in. Jordan Palmer isn't just an ex-pro QB these days. He's arguably the most highly-respected QB guru out there. He talks a lot about DeShaun Watson, another guy he worked with extensively. That was also interesting. He's worked a lot with Stidham also.

 

And he says he's addressed this and that Allen got better in Mobile, better yet at the combine and will be a ton better at his pro day. That should be easy enough to eyeball as confirmation that Palmer is onto something.

 

So, yeah, you're taking it on faith that he's improved over the offseason without facing live rushes. Of course, you're assuming the same thing with every QB out there in every year. You're taking it on trust with every QB. Everyone has to take different kinds of huge steps upwards.

 

I'm not pounding the table for the guy. But to me there's been a wild disconnect between the obvious problem and the fact that guys like Mayock love the guy. Mayock has him as the #2 after Darnold. Why? Kiper has him as the #1. Why? I haven't understood it. After hearing this, I understand. Again, feel free to disagree.

 

 

 

 

The agents pay him, and they pay him only for the three month QB camp he puts people through. He has no financial interest in whether or where they get drafted. He's already been paid.

 

 

 

 

Yes, agreed.

 

But again, Palmer has been working with him every day. He says it's already been addressed and that his accuracy has been improving. You can choose to disbelieve that if you like, or you can suspect that when he's being rushed he might regress. Fair enough. But there's already some serious indication that a change has been made. It might stick. Might not. But it might.

 

 

And there's the rub. 

 

A lot of young QBs spend time with QB gurus who supposedly fix their mechanical flaws.  Then you put them in a game and see the same kinds of problems they exhibited in college.  

 

A few, however, actually get better.  

 

How much are you willing to pay for a might/might-not prospect?

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

And there's the rub. 

 

A lot of young QBs spend time with QB gurus who supposedly fix their mechanical flaws.  Then you put them in a game and see the same kinds of problems they exhibited in college.  

 

A few, however, actually get better.  

 

How much are you willing to pay for a might/might-not prospect?

 

A 3rd or 4th round pick.

 

Josh Allen isn't even remotely close to being a serviceable NFL QB right now. He needs to get a lot better, learn how to read a defense and go through progressions, and completely refine his accuracy in live situations.

 

His path to success is extremely narrow. A ton of things need to happen for him to get to the point where he can actually function on an NFL field, and the odds of all those things happening is extremely slim. 

 

This is the reason why guys with accuracy and decision making issues don't last in the NFL for very long as anything more than 3rd string QBs. Boller, Losman, Freeman, Locker, etc all bounced around the league as camp arms after their rookie deals expired, because they still aren't able to do the things needed to keep their team competitive if they're asked to play. 

 

The talk of Allen going top 5 is insane. He's far and away the least accurate QB in the draft, but because he can throw it 80 yards people think he has upside. It makes no sense whatsoever. 

[Wayne Cubed]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

The agents pay him, and they pay him only for the three month QB camp he puts people through. He has no financial interest in whether or where they get drafted. He's already been paid.

 

Uh, what?

 

Of course he has a financial interest, it's his reputation and getting the top QBs to come to his "camp."  You think if Palmer does all this PR and puts them through this "camp" and that QB gets drafted low that that won't affect what clients he gets? And which agents decide to go to him?

[Coach Tuesday]

37 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

 

I think Billick is just trying to say look, folks, there are red flags here that you would do best to pay attention to.  The Ravens took Boller in the teens.  Allen is being considered a top 5 or even 3 pick off of the same traits that Boller had, namely a frame and a strong arm.

 

Honestly, because there are so many factors that historically count against Allen being great, I'm actually rooting for the guy.  I hope he bucks the trend.  I'd be scared as hell to take him though.

 

And consider this: if Allen does "buck the trend," he'll pave the way for dozens of terrible QB prospects to be overdrafted based upon athletic traits, just when the pendulum was starting to swing in the other direction (thanks to Jamarcus Russell).

[Magox]

I'm not gonna lie, I definitely have warmed up to Allen over the past few weeks.   The more I saw of him the more I came away impressed and if we did end up drafting him I wouldn't be upset, not in the least.

 

Having said that, he's still my #4 QB in this years draft.

[NewEraBills]

 

9 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

And consider this: if Allen does "buck the trend," he'll pave the way for dozens of terrible QB prospects to be overdrafted based upon athletic traits, just when the pendulum was starting to swing in the other direction (thanks to Jamarcus Russell).

 

 

Ughhh LOL but you know it will happen because if Allen can then .....