Jets just traded with Colts for #3 pick in first round

[starrymessenger]

JMO but I dont think the Giants are planning on drafting Barkley or O-line. They need a feature back and Barkley is in a class by himself but they could easily draft a blue chip rb if they moved further down in the draft. Same for O-line. If they are staying put its because they are taking a QB IMO. Eli is 37 and who knows how long it would otherwise be before they would again be in position to draft a franchise guy. And I tend to think that QB is Rosen, if for no other reason than I see him as the prospect that best projects as a franchise QB from amongst the candidates in this years class. If that is accurate then we were'nt getting him anyway and neither are the Jets either (assuming, as I do, that he is also their target at #3).

I think the Browns are taking Darnold at #1, even though I see Rosen as the better prospect.

If I'm wrong and the Giants are not committed to drafting a QB at #2 then that slot is up for sale to the highest bidder IMO. 

[Woodman19]

2 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

#3 pick trade up was our target and best chance to land a FQB. It's a reality check now more than a meltdown. It's 2004 all over again but this time we had ammo to actually fix what has haunted us in the past and we most likely failed again.

We don't know if it was our Target and we don't know who we want.  Ultimately time will tell.

[Success]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

BS.

 

You offer them a better deal than what Jets offered they take it. Why wouldn't they? 

Seriously?

 

More future picks may not be on their radar as much if the feel like they can win now with Luck and maybe a defender they have their eye on at 6.

[Real McClappy]

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

The Colts have a target player too and probably believe that player is available at 6. The Bills don't even have a top ten pick to offer. Teams often don't want to move back too far. It's why HOU cancelled their deal with the Bills last minute in '04 costing the Bills a chance at Roethlisberger. 

Eli, Ben and RIvers coming out are/were equivalent to Rosen, Baker and Darnold. Whatever, It's out of our hands anyways now.

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

BS.

 

You offer them a better deal than what Jets offered they take it. Why wouldn't they? 

 

That's what teams do. They say that they are willing to trade down at a limit. They want Chubb. They can get him at 6 but not at 12. It happens all of the time. 

 

[frostbitmic]

2 minutes ago, Manther said:

Barkley is not going #1.  I would wager anything including my life!

Barkley is the best player in this draft and the Browns will still have their choice of 2 out of the 4 top QB's.

 

Not taking Barkley #1 would be a bad move.

[BillsFan4]

15 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

#3 pick is valued at 2200. Jets gave up just about 2800 points in draft picks (depending on what value you assign the 2019 2nd. I valued it at roughly 200 points). 

 

They gave up about (roughly) 600 extra draft points (again depending on how you value that 2019 2nd) to move up 3 picks! 

 

Think about what it's going to take to move up form 12 to 2.

 

I honestly don't think it's going to happen guys. 

 

So, just looking at this more -

 

If you assume getting the #2 pick will take at least the same 600 point overpayment to get...

 

The #2 pick is worth 2600

 

If The Bills gave up both 1sts, both 2nds, and both 3rds that = 3071, which is only 471 extra points. 

 

So so if we have to get to 600 extra draft points, you are easily talking at least a 2019 2nd on top of two 1's, two 2's and two 3's this year... 

 

I just don't see Beane doing that. 

 

It was probably never all that realistic this year anyway, with the QB demand this draft. 

Im not gonna lie, I am bummed. But I really don't think we ar trading up to #2. 

 

Edited March 17, 2018 by BillsFan4

[Magox]

It's going to be a kings ransom to get to 2, specially now that the Jets overpaid by all metrics in order to do so.   The Colts from everything I heard really wanted Chubb and by making this trade with the Jets, they probably still get Chubb and 3 more second rounders.  If they had made this trade with the Bills they probably don't get Chubb.

 

I'm thinking Rosen may be out of the question now unless they are willing to give up a ridiculous premium.  I hope to god that Mayfield is the guy they truly want and if so a trade up with Cleveland at 4 may be a possibility.  

 

Also, this idea that you pay whatever it takes for an unknown quantity is absurd.  Don't get me wrong I want to go after Rosen or Mayfield if that is truly their target but you just don't hand over a blank check, there has to be a limit to what you are willing to pay.  Beane has proven himself to be much more competent than anyone we've had in decades and anyone assuming that his job is on the line simply because we decide to not get fleeced on a trade up to 2 is talking out of their ass.

Edited March 17, 2018 by Magox

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, BBillsWestCoast said:

Yesterday I was crafting this, but did not want to jinx us, so I didn't submit. I some what hope Buffalo can swing a trade with the Giants, but I am not sure they will?

 

Question now is do they move to Denver's #5 (Allen or Mayfield?) if they are willing which I doubt or Giants #2 (Rosen) and give away next years #1 on top of most of our 1st 3 rounds this year. Puke!

 

 

1. Browns should take QB #1 (Darnold), because it will push the panic button for the #2 and #3 picks as the Jets and Bills fight it out. 

2. The Giants want QB (Darnold), but settle for Saquon Barkley if they are stuck with pick and their guy isn't there, unless they are offered a serious ton of draft capital from the Bills or Jets like a #1 next year plus more. Josh Rosen is Manning 2.0 (smooth arm movement but throws a wobbler on film), so that is possible too.

3A. This makes #3 trade down gold.The Colts should trade with the Jets and grab their #2 to land a blue chipper and still get a beast on defense without having to drop to #12. They need draft picks, because of Cap hell. I think there is a secret plan to draft Baker Mayfield, so they may stay put or trade with Cleveland to leapfrog Denver. I think the Colts could still land Chubb here at #6.

3B. However, If I were Buffalo I would swing a deal with SF to #9 ASAP and give them a late #3 to gain leverage, because they do not have a #2 from the Jimmy Garoppolo trade and it would still give the Colts a great prospect on Defense or at Guard in the top 10. Trading to #3 from #9 would cost the Bills either our #22 or both 2nd round picks + change. I would rather keep #22 to land a great MLB since there are 3 elite ones, but I think Indy wants #22. I think we lose out and cannot move down to get our guy!

4. Bills really like Josh Allen and gamble on a bust?

 

Prediction

Cleveland - Darnold

Giants - Rosen (Manning 2.0)

Jets - Mayfield

Browns - Barkley/Minkah Fitzpatrick or we secretly like Josh Allen

Denver - Josh Allen (Elway 2.0)

Chubb

....

....

#12 Bills decide to take Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech or Roquan Smith, Georgia 

....

skip to #22

Bills Select 

 

 

 

The good news is........if they pass on a QB this year.......when they get their next shot at a decent crop of QB's everyone they drafted this year will be almost eligible for free agency at the same time!  

 

Here's the thing...........having 6 picks in the first 3 rounds sounds great.........but it's an era of 4 year rookie contracts now and a time where teams are making more informed decisions on PROVEN players in FA and getting better results from that process.

 

There is an argument to be made AGAINST having 10-12 draft picks in a given year...........a prime example of this would be guys like Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer..........if the Bills had a couple spare recent 3rd and 4th round safeties in development on the roster perhaps the Bills never go after one or either.    I think Cleveland is encountering issues with having too many draft picks to manage and properly evaluate their own talent.    

 

It's never been more important to have a franchise QB that you can shuffle the deck around rather than draft-and-pay-everyone-around and teams that take chances on QB's are then being REWARDED for placing priority on QB and then having balance in the rest of their personnel dealings.       

[gobills1212]

21 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

I see the logic and agree to an extent but there's not a clear cut QB that is going to be a franchise guy, let alone a starter. The risk is huge, the reward is huge as well. We watched 3 non franchise QB have their teams within a game of the SB... 

If you have great talent throughout the team, you don't need spectacular QB play to succeed.

 

Beane doesn't strike me as a guy who is willing to take such an extreme risk. There's no Andrew Luck , Cam Newton , Wentz out there. . There's alot of question marks

From me and you, you and me,  if that's your assessment you are entitled to it. But that's not what matters. If they feel there is, and they LOVE a guy- go get him. Even if it's not my preference (allen) bc I trust they know better. Now if they aren't in love w any of them then fine. I think there is a guy they quite like at the very least 

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

#3 pick trade up was our target and best chance to land a FQB. It's a reality check now more than a meltdown. It's 2004 all over again but this time we had ammo to actually fix what has haunted us in the past and we most likely failed again.

They didn't have the ammo or the deal would be done. Jets had an almost top 5 pick to offer. This was always a good possibility. Other QB needy teams ( that are likely to be picking high next year like the Jets) have lower picks to offer that are more attractive. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2017/07/buffalo_bills_gm_brandon_beane_describes_what_he_looks_for_in_franchise_quarterb.html

 

So what does Beane look for in a quarterback?

 

"Obviously, you draw them up, from a physical standpoint, they look like Cam (Newton)," Beane said. "But how many are there like that? You want a guy, the stature, the height, you know, they're standing over, they're not worried about linemen in their face. It gives them the vision and all that. Arm strength. But the one thing that people I think miss a little bit when they're watching, you know, the college game schematically has just been so dummied down that these guys know before the ball's snapped right where they're going. There's no progressions. There's no audibiling. That's the challenge that the college guys have, and it's brutal. And these quarterbacks that are getting drafted high that have never taken a snap from center, have never called an audible. That's tough. The intangibles are the other thing that you can't necessarily measure from the film. I can turn on the film and watch some things. You obviously want to see quarterbacks live, but what's this guy's makeup? What's his leadership? Do guys rally behind him? I go back to Carolina. Jake Delhomme, one of the greatest leaders I've ever been around. He was undrafted. The guy willed himself to lead the team the years he was in Carolina. His intangibles were a 12 on a one-to-10 scale. And that's how he overcame his athletic limitations. I kind of went around the question a little bit, but you're looking for a lot of things, some of it physically we can all see. But a lot of it you can't necessarily see." 

 

...ABSOLUTELY great post and find bud......if my interpretation is somewhat correct, he is talking about the mental aspect of the game first and foremost, a primary reason why Steve Young said, "More collegians fail versus succeed at the NFL level because of the speed and complexity of the game"...who is to argue?.....the is somewhat parity in the NFL with only 1,696 selects making it to this level....parity in collegiate ball?......nope IMO.....how many teams schedule easy win "W's" to appease boosters and fans, hopefully getting a multi million dollar bowl bid?....so does a collegiate QB suck because he excels against the "puffs" but struggles within his conference?....do the puffs actually act a detriment to his development so he is NOT ready for conference play?......the multitude of intangibles without sufficient measurement tools have, currently and will forever render the draft an INEXACT science....roll the dice and see what you get IMO..........

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I want to trust Beane, but this is a disaster. We had to beat any offer.

 

 

how is it a disaster?

 

 

# 1 and # 2 picks are still tradable, no?

 

I have felt for a while now with the rapport between gettleman and beane that they may work something out.

 

 

to call this a disaster before draft day has come and gone, is very premature, imo.

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Jets are doing what it takes to ensure they get a QB.

 

If the roles were reversed and the Bills made this trade the board would be ecstatic. 

 

They wanted Chubb, trading with the Bills wouldn't have gotten them Chubb.   Why are you guys having a hard time with this concept?

[Woodman19]

Draft pick value doesn't matter when teams fall in love with players.  If we had pick number one and had a QB rated as the next Aaron Rodgers, how many of you would trade it for an extra 1,500 draft pick value?

Edited March 17, 2018 by Woodman19

[CuddyDark]

2 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

Eli, Ben and RIvers coming out are/were equivalent to Rosen, Baker and Darnold. Whatever, It's out of our hands anyways now.

Not true. Only one given a close rating is Darnold.

[Manther]

16 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

If Rudolph is truly his guy, and he believes that he's the only one that values him that highly, then he thinks he's the smartest guy in the room.

 

And that's dumb 

The only thing I am confident in this draft regarding the QBs is that Rudolph is not our guy.  I don't believe McBeane will make a 6" QB our guy.  McBeane has talked about their ideal QB and being tall is something they value.  I am confident Rudolph is not our guy and feel pretty good Jackson is not either.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

how is it a disaster?

 

 

# 1 and # 2 picks are still tradable, no?

 

I have felt for a while now with the rapport between gettleman and beane that they may work something out.

 

 

to call this a disaster before draft day has come and gone, is very premature, imo.

A breath of sanity in a sea of insanity

[Tyrod's friend]

2 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

Eli, Ben and RIvers coming out are/were equivalent to Rosen, Baker and Darnold. Whatever, It's out of our hands anyways now.

Not one of the prospects is any where NEAR as good as any of the veterans you are comparing them to.

But like you say, it's out of our hands and it is so, by the desires of a GM that has been widely loved here. Trust the process.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

6 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

#3 pick trade up was our target and best chance to land a FQB. It's a reality check now more than a meltdown. It's 2004 all over again but this time we had ammo to actually fix what has haunted us in the past and we most likely failed again.

 

has the draft already come and gone that one can compare to any past draft?

 

I suggest losing the black cloud until the draft is over.

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, Woodman19 said:

Draft pick doesn't matter when teams fall in love with players.  If we had pick number one and had a QB rated as the next Aaron Rodgers, how many of you would trade it for an extra 1,500 draft pick value?

Exactly. Teams have a good idea who they want as top choice and will make a move that allows this. It's more about the pick at 6 that the Bills couldn't trump than anything else. 

[thebandit27]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

A breath of sanity in a sea of insanity

 

All I see are folks talking about what comes next. 

 

I've seen few--if any--insane reactions

[Reed83HOF]

Joe Banner‏Verified account @JoeBanner13 1m1 minute ago

Jets pass on Watson and Mahommes to take excellent safety then spent 15M on TWO back up QB’s then use a 1 and 3 twos to get second/third best QB in draft. It could work out, but this is a lot of bad decision making and inefficient use of cap $’s and draft picks.

[RochesterRob]

15 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

#3 pick is valued at 2200. Jets gave up just about 2800 points in draft picks (depending on what value you assign the 2019 2nd. I valued it at roughly 200 points). 

 

They gave up about (roughly) 600 extra draft points (again depending on how you value that 2019 2nd) to move up 3 picks! 

 

Think about what it's going to take to move up form 12 to 2.

 

I honestly don't think it's going to happen guys. 

  People do not want to think around here.  They would rather carry on like Ralph Kramden (bluster that they did not get their way).

[mjt328]

4 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

If the Kirk Cousins contract - and the relative success of back up QBs across the league last year - it should be that the idea of a 10-15 year starter is over. Way, way, the f over. 

Cousins signed a 3 year, fully guaranteed contract. No team, anywhere, will be able to "lock up" a QB forever. Days are gone, my friend.

 

You can't be serious.

 

Kirk Cousins was an anomaly.  Quarterbacks of his caliber never hit free agency, unless there are catastrophic injuries and Top 10 prospects waiting on the bench (like the situations involving Peyton Manning and Drew Brees).  His contract means nothing.  The salary cap will rise and teams will find ways to adjust to the market.  If you think that franchise quarterbacks are suddenly going to be hitting the free agent market in coming years, you are out of your mind

 

And desperate teams have ALWAYS been willing to overpay for successful backups.  Do you recall the Bills sending a 1st Rounder to the Jaguars for Rob Johnson? 

[Success]

I wonder what Beane’s reaction was.

 

I like to think that he just shrugged and moved on to the next plan.

[Real McClappy]

4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

They didn't have the ammo or the deal would be done. Jets had an almost top 5 pick to offer. This was always a good possibility. Other QB needy teams ( that are likely to be picking high next year like the Jets) have lower picks to offer that are more attractive. 

6 picks in the first three rds is 100% ammo to trade up, not even counting next year. 

 

Oh well, what's done is done. It's 100% out of my hands. Just a bit disappointing as I was primed to land one of the top 3 out of the class for the last year now.

Edited March 17, 2018 by Real McCoy

[Manther]

12 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Building a roster without a franchise QB is not a recipe for consistent success, and never has been.

 

Please give me an example of EVEN ONE TEAM in NFL history who was able to maintain success for longer than 4 years without strong play from the QB position.

The New York Football Giants.  Eli is not good.  He is average and got hot a couple times.  I am not even messing around.  Eli is average.  When he plays average, the NYGs are average.  When he gets hot, they get hot.  I think I just validated your point........

[Domdab99]

LOL all of the utter panic in this thread is hilarious. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

All I see are folks talking about what comes next. 

 

I've seen few--if any--insane reactions

I would argue that claiming a GM will be fired before anything is ve done yet qualifies.

[thebandit27]

Just now, Success said:

I wonder what Beane’s reaction was.

 

I like to think that he just shrugged and moved on to the next plan.

 

Probably

 

They haven't once acted out of panic, and I don't expect it to start now 

[Manther]

13 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I always thought it would take the Bill's 3-1sts and 3-2nd's to get in a conversation to move to #2.

Minimum.

Beane in essence got a 2nd for Glenn.

Pretty much agreed to get to #2.  Agreed Glenn got 2nd round value.

[Real McClappy]

2 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

has the draft already come and gone that one can compare to any past draft?

 

I suggest losing the black cloud until the draft is over.

Your right.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Manther said:

The New York Football Giants.  Eli is not good.  He is average and got hot a couple times.  I am not even messing around.  Eli is average.  When he plays average, the NYGs are average.  When he gets hot, they get hot.  I think I just validated your point........

Could throw Flacco in there.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

[thebandit27]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

I would argue that claiming a GM will be fired before anything is ve done yet qualifies.

 

Is that most people's reaction, or just one?

 

 You seem to be focused on the minority of folks

[Success]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

All I see are folks talking about what comes next. 

 

I've seen few--if any--insane reactions

Probably more than a dozen posts so far saying Beane should be fired now if this or that doesn’t happen.

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Not one of the prospects is any where NEAR as good as any of the veterans you are comparing them to.

But like you say, it's out of our hands and it is so, by the desires of a GM that has been widely loved here. Trust the process.

  That's how I remember it, also.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

Is that most people's reaction, or just one?

 

 You seem to be focused on the minority of folks

Perhaps insanity was too much.  

[ColoradoBills]

14 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

The Colts will still get their guy in Chubb - which they probably wouldn't have if the they had traded with the Bills and they get all these other picks.   Win win for the Colts.

 

Exactly.  Look at last years trade for Trubisky with the 49er's.

49er's at 2 they want Solomon Thomas.

Bears at 3 want to trade up to 2 to stop someone from jumping them.

Bears have to give up a 3rd, 4th and next years 3rd to move up 1 spot.

49er's know Bears are picking a QB.

They get their guy 1 pick lower (saving on some rookie contract $'s) and those picks.

 

That's a smart trade for a team at #2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited March 17, 2018 by ColoradoBills
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