Never Trade Up -- Here's Why

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Again, We don't know if Watson or Mahomes are going to be long-term solutions at QB yet. They look good, but who knows? 

 

And yes, I'd certainly like to be in the Eagles' shoes. It must be nice to win a SB. But I really don't think they won because they traded up for Wentz. Like you said, the rest of the team was good, too. 

 

All OP is saying that the stats clearly say DON'T TRADE UP FOR A QB. Recent history excepted, of course. It's not a clear cut decision. I want a QB as bad as you, I just don't want to give aw the farm to do it. 

OMG.  What QB would've gone 11-2 as a starter for them for most of the year?

 

You have to give away the farm or you won't get the best QB prospect.  This simple fact cannot be disregarded.

[Lfod]

I would put myself into the reluctant to trade up category. The team says it now wants to build through the draft and in time I will learn what that means to them.

 

I'm under the impression there probably won't be any mayjor trade up unless it's very convenient for the Bills. I just don't think you can build through the draft if you spend all your capital on one guy. I'm not against moving up for a QB if you really feel he will be elite. I also am not against trading into a better position for a QB next year if it made more sense.

 

I'll find out soon enough but I just don't see them trading up for a QB. I think they let the draft fall to them. I don't think they will reach. I think they will draft a QB at the appropriate time and hope they hit.

Edited March 3, 2018 by Lfod

[Domdab99]

9 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

OMG.  What QB would've gone 11-2 as a starter for them for most of the year?

 

You have to give away the farm or you won't get the best QB prospect.  This simple fact cannot be disregarded.

 

That simple fact would be wrong 8/10 times. But you do you, Dude.

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Domdab99 said:

 

That simple fact would be wrong 8/10 times. But you do you, Dude.

You'd be even more wrong waiting.  But let's hope we get our chance at the next Brandon Weeden or Paxton Lynch.

Edited March 3, 2018 by jmc12290

[billsredneck1]

i know this will get flamed and any one could come up with a million scenarios, and though i shudder at the thought of trading up, we have to have a franchise qb so....

 

i would trade 21, a 2nd , next year's 1st and tt to cleveland for the 4 spot and draft mayfield. this is assuming darnold and rosen are gone. tt would be a good bridge for them to at least be able to go .500 or better in their division...which should be their no. 1 goal.

 

i would also consider this same deal and scenario with denver for no. 5  assuming cousins lands elsewhere. i can see denver looking to draft allen later in the 1st.

 

my ideal situation would be foles or mc carron and have all our picks but....

Edited March 3, 2018 by billsredneck1

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

32 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Again, We don't know if Watson or Mahomes are going to be long-term solutions at QB yet. They look good, but who knows? 

 

And yes, I'd certainly like to be in the Eagles' shoes. It must be nice to win a SB. But I really don't think they won because they traded up for Wentz. Like you said, the rest of the team was good, too. 

 

All OP is saying that the stats clearly say DON'T TRADE UP FOR A QB. Recent history excepted, of course. It's not a clear cut decision. I want a QB as bad as you, I just don't want to give aw the farm to do it. 

 

when you have gone 22 years without a franchise QB, you give away the farm.

 

period.

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

 

One missed swing for the fences one year into the new regime could define their tenure.

 

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Just like sitting on their hands can. Then again they are ultra conservative sooooo

 

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

 

I’d rather they get fired trying to get a star qb than be 7 years in and .500 with 3 wildcard games and 1 playoff win

 

These 3 posts tell the whole story.

Beane and McDermott have waited their whole careers to get to this spot.

WHAT will THEY do?

 

I truly believe they would love to move up and get "their guy".

Winning 2-3 games more than expected has made this much harder.

The extra 1st from KC is definitely in the mix because that's what they traded it for!

That's 1580 draft points and with a premium gets you to about 8.

 

They easily could decide to use their 2nd 2nd which makes 1930 points.

With a premium gets you to about 5.

2 less wins would of had the Bills pick around 13 or so.  With that it would just about get them to #2.

But that didn't happen, we made the Playoffs!

 

For Beane to move higher than 5 or so becomes problematic.

The risk/reward get exponentially higher and no one knows if he is willing to risk that.

So a lot has to do with FA QB results and how these QB's grade out in the next few weeks.

We got to wait to see what he will do.  I hope he finds someone to trade with to get someone he wants!

 

I've spent a lot of time in Vegas and one thing is for certain...................

the best "gamblers" do not go to Vegas for a weekend and put everything they got on one hand of blackjack.

FWIW

[K-9]

Gotta be in it to to win it.

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

Regardless of past draft stats, if there’s a QB that McBeane likes, then they have to do what it takes to get him.

Right now, both the Jets and Dolphins are thinking franchise QB, and if not this year, soon the Patriots will be looking for Brady’s successor. The division is about to go through a transition and we have to do what it takes to beat them to the punch.

Now that all depends on who they fall in love with. That just may be Jackson and Rudolph, who knows. But if it’s Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield, we have to jump the gun.

 I couldn't agree more. With Tom Brady being on the cusp of retirement it is imperative that we find this QB within the next 2 years, and no later than that. if the scouts and the GM feel strongly about one quarterback they have to go for it. If not use your existing pics and build the team as strong as you can,  and take a quarterback at 21 or in the 2nd round.

[ndirish1978]

This list is the ultimate form of confirmation bias. You offer these vague and ambiguous categories defined by your unqualified opinion. Then to top it off you make an absolute statement that teams should NEVER trade up. Carson Wentz was a trade up and his was a success, so your premise is immediately disproved, as your absolute statement has already failed. 

Edited March 3, 2018 by ndirish1978

[Lurker]

Love this line:    https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/4/18/15340020/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-mitchell-trubisky-nfl-history-trading-up-franchise-quarterback

 

"Going back to the merger in 1970, a trade into the top ten for a QB has happened twelve times. Two of those quarterbacks won a playoff game with the team that drafted them. Three have spent time in prison."

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

27 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Gotta be in it to to win it.

It really is that simple isn't it. 

[JohnC]

9 hours ago, cage said:

With all the talk of trading up I thought I would take a look at how well teams pick at the top half of the draft.  I looked at just the top 15 pics over a decade 2005-2015 (11 years).  I graded each pick as HIT / SO-SO / BUST.  I defined HIT as someone who had their 5th year option picked up, was re-signed by team drafting them or signed a big FA contract once their rookie deal was up.  For those still on their rookie contract they had to be full-time starters from year 1 and made the Pro-bowl.  That's what you'd expect from a top 15 pick.

 

Here are the results by position:

 

Position	Hit	So-so	Bust
QB	26%	32%	42%
RB	31%	38%	31%
WR	39%	17%	44%
OL	38%	38%	24%
DL	43%	26%	31%
LB	57%	17%	26%
DB	33%	38%	29%
Offense	34%	32%	34%
Defense	44%	27%	29%
Total	39%	29%	32%

 

Other than at LB the drafting success of the entire league scouting system for the top 15 picks of the draft is less than a coin flip.  These should be the most sure-fire perennial Pro Bowlers.  If the league's collective wisdom can't be above 50% with these pics, why would you ever trade up?  Much less, for a QB, which is the worst performing position.

 

I further looked at QBs in just the top 5 in the same period.  The HIT rate "rises" to 38%,... certainly uninspiring.  With at least 4 QBs projected in the top 15 pics, we should expect that at least 2 of them will be BUSTs.

 

 

 

Ask the Rams and the Eagles if they regret trading picks to move up for their respective qbs. The Bills haven't had a franchise qb for almost a quarter century. Being passive is a formula for maintaining the status quo. Paralysis by over analysis can be crippling! I appreciate your effort but I'm not buying what you are selling. 

[Reed83HOF]

15 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Ask the Rams and the Eagles if they regret trading picks to move up for their respective qbs. The Bills haven't had a franchise qb for almost a quarter century. Being passive is a formula for maintaining the status quo.

Sigh

[ColoradoBills]

22 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Love this line:    https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/4/18/15340020/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-mitchell-trubisky-nfl-history-trading-up-franchise-quarterback

 

"Going back to the merger in 1970, a trade into the top ten for a QB has happened twelve times. Two of those quarterbacks won a playoff game with the team that drafted them. Three have spent time in prison."

 

that's funny.

[SouthNYfan]

53 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

 

These 3 posts tell the whole story.

Beane and McDermott have waited their whole careers to get to this spot.

WHAT will THEY do?

 

I truly believe they would love to move up and get "their guy".

Winning 2-3 games more than expected has made this much harder.

The extra 1st from KC is definitely in the mix because that's what they traded it for!

That's 1580 draft points and with a premium gets you to about 8.

 

They easily could decide to use their 2nd 2nd which makes 1930 points.

With a premium gets you to about 5.

2 less wins would of had the Bills pick around 13 or so.  With that it would just about get them to #2.

But that didn't happen, we made the Playoffs!

 

For Beane to move higher than 5 or so becomes problematic.

The risk/reward get exponentially higher and no one knows if he is willing to risk that.

So a lot has to do with FA QB results and how these QB's grade out in the next few weeks.

We got to wait to see what he will do.  I hope he finds someone to trade with to get someone he wants!

 

I've spent a lot of time in Vegas and one thing is for certain...................

the best "gamblers" do not go to Vegas for a weekend and put everything they got on one hand of blackjack.

FWIW

 

Agree your post.

Pretty much spot on, other than the bold, I'd also like to add that those best "gamblers" also play multiple hands, and also do go "all in" if they feel they are sure about something.

Sometimes they hit big on the river with an "all in" hope and prayer, but usually they have calculated the odds before they do so.

In regards to playing multiple hands, the Bills haven't done that in a while.

We love to pass on QBs.

Can't win if you aren't in the game, right?

 

I don't advocate betting the farm in panic, but if they love a guy enough, I'm okay with them betting the farm, the car, and the rent check

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Agree your post.

Pretty much spot on, other than the bold, I'd also like to add that those best "gamblers" also play multiple hands, and also do go "all in" if they feel they are sure about something.

Sometimes they hit big on the river with an "all in" hope and prayer, but usually they have calculated the odds before they do so.

In regards to playing multiple hands, the Bills haven't done that in a while.

We love to pass on QBs.

Can't win if you aren't in the game, right?

 

I don't advocate betting the farm in panic, but if they love a guy enough, I'm okay with them betting the farm, the car, and the rent check

 

Thanks.  Blackjack and Hold'em are definitely 2 different games.  LOL

I noticed how you said your "okay with THEM betting the farm, the car, and the rent check", and that is what I'm talking about.

It's their lives and careers on the line.

The 2 games of chance is really a good analogy.

Is Beane a Hold'em player or a Blackjack player?  Definitely 2 different kinds of gamblers.

[John from Riverside]

The problem with all this is we have basically tried everything BUT selling out for a QB

 

Lets try it

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Again, We don't know if Watson or Mahomes are going to be long-term solutions at QB yet. They look good, but who knows? 

 

And yes, I'd certainly like to be in the Eagles' shoes. It must be nice to win a SB. But I really don't think they won because they traded up for Wentz. Like you said, the rest of the team was good, too. 

 

All OP is saying that the stats clearly say DON'T TRADE UP FOR A QB. Recent history excepted, of course. It's not a clear cut decision. I want a QB as bad as you, I just don't want to give away the farm to do it. 

 

If we trade up to 17 for a project I’ll be less excited than if we go up for a top prospect 

 

its its hard to lump those two situations together for your argument 

Edited March 3, 2018 by NoSaint

[K-9]

40 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

It really is that simple isn't it. 

When it comes to getting a player you’ve identified as a blue chip, can’t miss, franchise-turning-around, perennial All Pro? Yeah, it’s that simple. 

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

When it comes to getting a player you’ve identified as a blue chip, can’t miss, franchise-turning-around, perennial All Pro? Yeah, it’s that simple. 

There is no such thing as a "cant miss"

[Doc Brown]

10 hours ago, cage said:

I further looked at QBs in just the top 5 in the same period.  The HIT rate "rises" to 38%,... certainly uninspiring.  With at least 4 QBs projected in the top 15 pics, we should expect that at least 2 of them will be BUSTs.

Not using your criteria, but more of a subjective analysis the hit rate is about 25% for top 5 picks.

 

Alex Smith - so so, Vince Young - BUST, Jamarcus Russell - all time BUST, Matthew Stafford - hit, Mark Sanchez - BUST, Sam Bradford - so so, Cam Newton - hit, Andrew Luck - hit, RG3 - BUST, Blake Bortles - so so, Jaemis Winston- so so, Marcus Mariota - so so 

 

3 hits, 5 so so's, 4 busts

 

Even though this year's draft class is probably rated the strongest since 2004, I don't envy McDermott or Beane at this point.

 

[cage]

14 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The problem with all this is we have basically tried everything BUT selling out for a QB

 

Lets try it

 

The one thing we didn't try is picking Mahomes or Watson last year

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

There is no such thing as a "cant miss"

That’s really not the point though, is it? Having the conviction about the prospect comes first, being wrong and second guessed comes later.

[SouthNYfan]

24 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Thanks.  Blackjack and Hold'em are definitely 2 different games.  LOL

I noticed how you said your "okay with THEM betting the farm, the car, and the rent check", and that is what I'm talking about.

It's their lives and careers on the line.

The 2 games of chance is really a good analogy.

Is Beane a Hold'em player or a Blackjack player?  Definitely 2 different kinds of gamblers.

 

Haha

Yeah I know they are two different games, I just felt the "River" hold em worked better for the flow of my post

I do think the draft is more hold'em than blackjack though, but either way, I think if I were Beane or MCD I would be popping Xanax like Skittles right now

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

8 minutes ago, K-9 said:

That’s really not the point though, is it? Having the conviction about the prospect comes first, being wrong and second guessed comes later.

Its also about risk aversion as some are conservative to the point of wilting on the vine.

[John from Riverside]

11 minutes ago, K-9 said:

That’s really not the point though, is it? Having the conviction about the prospect comes first, being wrong and second guessed comes later.

I just want them to have conviction and then support it

[K-9]

1 minute ago, horned dogs said:

Its also about risk aversion as some are conservative to the point of wilting on the vine.

The draft is nothing if not about taking risks. That should be self evident given the sheer amount of picks that don’t pan out as hoped. No guts, no glory as the saying goes. 

[Lurker]

5 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

 

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

The draft is nothing if not about taking risks. That should be self evident given the sheer amount of picks that don’t pan out as hoped. No guts, no glory as the saying goes. 

 

....No Aaron Rogers, either.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/24186/bills-gamble-on-j-p-losman-in-2004-backfired-badly

 

Edited March 3, 2018 by Lurker

[3rdand12]

20 minutes ago, K-9 said:

That’s really not the point though, is it? Having the conviction about the prospect comes first, being wrong and second guessed comes later.

one of my issues  has remained for years, in regard to the Bills specifically.

Can they even Develop a QB ?
Let hope part of The Process is focused on that feature.
 I have spoken my opinion about drafting QBs in regard to trading up aggressively. They damn well better all feel it is for The Man

[Fadingpain]

10 hours ago, cage said:

With all the talk of trading up I thought I would take a look at how well teams pick at the top half of the draft.  I looked at just the top 15 pics over a decade 2005-2015 (11 years).  I graded each pick as HIT / SO-SO / BUST.  I defined HIT as someone who had their 5th year option picked up, was re-signed by team drafting them or signed a big FA contract once their rookie deal was up.  For those still on their rookie contract they had to be full-time starters from year 1 and made the Pro-bowl.  That's what you'd expect from a top 15 pick.

 

Here are the results by position:

 

Position	Hit	So-so	Bust
QB	26%	32%	42%
RB	31%	38%	31%
WR	39%	17%	44%
OL	38%	38%	24%
DL	43%	26%	31%
LB	57%	17%	26%
DB	33%	38%	29%
Offense	34%	32%	34%
Defense	44%	27%	29%
Total	39%	29%	32%

 

Other than at LB the drafting success of the entire league scouting system for the top 15 picks of the draft is less than a coin flip.  These should be the most sure-fire perennial Pro Bowlers.  If the league's collective wisdom can't be above 50% with these pics, why would you ever trade up?  Much less, for a QB, which is the worst performing position.

 

I further looked at QBs in just the top 5 in the same period.  The HIT rate "rises" to 38%,... certainly uninspiring.  With at least 4 QBs projected in the top 15 pics, we should expect that at least 2 of them will be BUSTs.

 

 

 

You have shown more reasoning here than Doug Whaley did when he was actually the GM of the Bills.

 

It's not about quality of pick, it's about number of picks.  Increase your odds of hitting.

 

The good teams understand this and trade down all the time.

 

 

[cage]

2 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

You have shown more reasoning here than Doug Whaley did when he was actually the GM of the Bills.

 

It's not about quality of pick, it's about number of picks.  Increase your odds of hitting.

 

The good teams understand this and trade down all the time.

 

 

 

Lets be a bit careful about that.  The Browns have shown thats not wonder-strategy necessarily either.  In two successive seasons they traded out of Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson... yikes!  I think its good to trade down at times, trade up a few to get someone or stand pat and make your picks.  My preference would be not to trade up 10+ slots and overpay.

 

[ColoradoBills]

11 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Haha

Yeah I know they are two different games, I just felt the "River" hold em worked better for the flow of my post

I do think the draft is more hold'em than blackjack though, but either way, I think if I were Beane or MCD I would be popping Xanax like Skittles right now

 

This QB situation has got to be nerve racking for them.

One thing that makes me personally feel better is they both seem very methodical in their decision making.

I would imagine they are just having to wait to see what happens in the FA QB outcome whether they are a big part of it or not.

 

Where these FA's sign in relation to draft pick order will be key to their draft decisions.

Cousins could sign with the Donkeys and the Jets could sign Keenum, who knows.  That would be great for the Bills.

Then again Cousins could sign with Minny and Keenum could go to Arizona.  Bad for the Bills.

 

I know the Eagles want to keep Foles, but man I wish he would get traded to one of the QB needy teams.

[Logic]

Thank you for the work to put this together. Well done.

Here's the thing for me: I KNOW the hit rate in the top half of the draft is low. But if you're part of that minority percentage that DOES hit on a pick -- particularly at QB -- it can change your franchise.

On one side of the coin, you have Washington, who traded a bunch to move up for RGIII, and it was a swing and a miss. But on the OTHER side of that coin is Philadelphia. THEY traded up for a quarterback and struck gold.

Is a move up risky? Yes. Is there a reasonably likelihood that the player you move up for busts? Yes. Is it necessary to take risks and swing the bat every now and then if you want to hit a home run? Yes.

In the case of attempting to obtain a franchise quarterback, I accept the risk. 

Edited March 3, 2018 by Logic

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, KD in CA said:

It's not trading up that's the problem.  It's trading up for players like JP Losman, John McCargo and Sammy Watkins.

 

Don't forget my personal favorite, WR TJ Graham

1 hour ago, Logic said:

On one side of the coin, you have Washington, who traded a bunch to move up for RGIII, and it was a swing and a miss.

 

The sad thing about RGIII is, he had a great rookie season - very hard to call him a miss.

He and Sam Bradford fall into another category of Draftee QB Hell, the "guy looked good until injury"

[Augie]

It looks like if you trade up four times you have a QB.  

[QCity]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

 

 

It's not about quality of pick, it's about number of picks.  Increase your odds of hitting.

 

The good teams understand this and trade down all the time.

 

 

 

Absolutely. But the good teams already have their QB. That's why we consider them the good teams.

[White Linen]

5 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Not really.   The group-think of draft ratings, buzz, media and fan pressure generally push QBs up each year, causing teams to irrationally say 'It will be worth it this time."   

 

The QBs go where they're slotted and the teams that trade up are the ones who go out of order...

 

The QB's do not go in order of BPA, which was my point.