Never Trade Up -- Here's Why

[cage]

35 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

What is the hit rate for QBs drafted after pick 20?

 

Just a hunch, but you aren't getting anywhere near 26%

 

Absolutely nowhere near 26%.  I did a quick and dirty assessment on that for the same timeframe and here are the results.  Only 7% chance of getting HIT beyond top 15 pics.  I rated the following pics in this group as HITS;  Flacco, Bridgewater, Carr, Dalton, Cousins, Garrapolo, R. Wilson and Foles.  Not sure if Foles belongs yet...

 

QB	Hit	So-So	Picked	Rounds
2015	0	0	5
2014	3	1	13	1,2,5
2013	0	1	11	3
2012	3	0	8	3,4
2011	1	2	8	2,6
2010	0	1	13	3
2009	0	0	9
2008	1	1	12	1,7
2007	0	1	9	6
2006	0	0	8
2005	0	4	11	4,6,7
Total	8	11	107
	7%	10%

 

 

28 minutes ago, skibum said:

So, what are the odds of hitting on a QB if you never pick one?

 

I'm definitely NOT saying not to pick a QB.  I'm questioning making a big trade-up move, 10+ slots.  We had Mahomes and Watson there for the taking last year and ironically to this thread, both were picked on big trade-ups that I wouldn't have done.  Perhaps thats why I'm not a GM and just spewing my opinion in a forum on Saturday morning....

 

24 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I hope you are right.  Like the OP, I'm not opposed to trading up a few spots to take Mayfield, but I don't think it's possible for the Bills to get into the Top 4 short of sacrificing too much for a QB who's more likely to bust than not, which would likely be Rosen.  If Jackson was available at #21, I'd take him (not at #22!).  I don't know if I'd spend a first rounder on Allen or Rudolph.

 

 

Agree!

Edited March 3, 2018 by cage

[BillsVet]

The thing with statistical analysis is the past does not always predict the future.

 

There's obvious risk to trading assets to move up, especially when your team is thin elsewhere and those picks could be used to reinforce areas like OL, DL, LB, and perhaps WR.

 

At some point this team needs an answer at QB and it's unlikely to come through UFA, at least in a cost-effective manner. 

[MAJBobby]

Not to mention Positional Value flaws stats also here. 

 

Because teams will force and fall in love with a QB much faster than they will says a LBer 

[Green Lightning]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

 

The Bills missed on a trade up in 2004, the Jests missed on a trade up in 2009, and Washington missed on a trade up in 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah you're right the last 17 years have been great. Let's continue. Let's sit on our hands and hope that something changes and not do anything about it. In the meantime I'll try to think of all the defensive backs, lineman, receivers, that will guarantee us a Super Bowl win. Geez, none come to mind.

[metzelaars_lives]

Classic TBD fallacies: our offensive line always sucks even when it doesn’t and we always need offensive line help even when we really don’t; trading down always good, trading up always bad. Tell that to the Rams, Eagles, Texans, Falcons (Julio Jones), Chiefs (if Mahomes works out), etc., etc., etc...

[White Linen]

I can't understand how anyone can take this breakdown seriously, in terms of why the numbers look that way and why you shouldn't care.  

[Heavy Kevi]

That's nice data and clearly you put work into it, but the fact is your chances of QB being elite is highest in the top 5 and deteriorates from there. Sure there are late rounders who are good, certainly; but if you want the best chance you draft the QB as eaarly as possible, whether it's a trade-up or not.

 

Aside from that- We have tried waiting till most are off the board and jumped up to grab one (Losman). We have waited until mid rounds (Edwards). We have waited until late rounds (Cardale, Peterman). We have traded DOWN in the first (EJ). None of that has worked. The one thing we haven't done is draft one at the top of the draft, and it's about freakin time we tried.

[MAJBobby]

You never hit on 100% of thr shots you dont take

[NoSaint]

5 hours ago, cage said:

With all the talk of trading up I thought I would take a look at how well teams pick at the top half of the draft.  I looked at just the top 15 pics over a decade 2005-2015 (11 years).  I graded each pick as HIT / SO-SO / BUST.  I defined HIT as someone who had their 5th year option picked up, was re-signed by team drafting them or signed a big FA contract once their rookie deal was up.  For those still on their rookie contract they had to be full-time starters from year 1 and made the Pro-bowl.  That's what you'd expect from a top 15 pick.

 

Here are the results by position:

 

Position	Hit	So-so	Bust
QB	26%	32%	42%
RB	31%	38%	31%
WR	39%	17%	44%
OL	38%	38%	24%
DL	43%	26%	31%
LB	57%	17%	26%
DB	33%	38%	29%
Offense	34%	32%	34%
Defense	44%	27%	29%
Total	39%	29%	32%

 

Other than at LB the drafting success of the entire league scouting system for the top 15 picks of the draft is less than a coin flip.  These should be the most sure-fire perennial Pro Bowlers.  If the league's collective wisdom can't be above 50% with these pics, why would you ever trade up?  Much less, for a QB, which is the worst performing position.

 

I further looked at QBs in just the top 5 in the same period.  The HIT rate "rises" to 38%,... certainly uninspiring.  With at least 4 QBs projected in the top 15 pics, we should expect that at least 2 of them will be BUSTs.

 

 

 

 

 

Now compare that to the bottom half?

 

and, be honest, is it possible you also skewed some judgement calls down to help find what you were looking for? What’s a hit vs a so-so?

 

and the top half all being perennial pro bowlers would require about 150 pro bowl slots and no one else getting in.... which leads me to believe your expectations are a bit off.

Edited March 3, 2018 by NoSaint

[cage]

8 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

Now compare that to the bottom half?

 

and, be honest, is it possible you also skewed some judgement calls down to help find what you were looking for? What’s a hit vs a so-so?

 

I didn't have an objective in looking for anything particularly related to QBs.  What gave me the idea to do this was a different thread a couple days ago that was suggesting that a trade-up was worth it for a "future HOFer" regardless of position.  The OP in that thread was suggesting G Quenton Nelson.  I wanted to see if OL or any particular position warranted any thought like that.  The point was to show that there's no such thing as knowing before a draft how might be a future HOFer.  The analysis was a comparison of all positions, but just devolved into talk about QB for obvious reasons...

Edited March 3, 2018 by cage

[JMF2006]

14 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

You never hit on 100% of thr shots you dont take

 

One missed swing for the fences one year into the new regime could define their tenure.

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

One missed swing for the fences one year into the new regime could define their tenure.

 

Just like sitting on their hands can. Then again they are ultra conservative sooooo

Edited March 3, 2018 by MAJBobby

[NoSaint]

8 minutes ago, cage said:

 

I didn't have an objective in looking for anything particularly related to QBs.  What gave me the idea to do this was a different thread a couple days ago that was suggesting that a trade-up was worth it for a "future HOFer" regardless of position.  The OP in that thread was suggesting G Quenton Nelson.  I wanted to see if OL or any particular position warranted any thought like that.  The point was to show that there's no such thing as knowing before a draft how might be a future HOFer.  The analysis was a comparison of all positions, but just devolved into talk about QB for obvious reasons...

 

My post contains both the letter Q and letter B... but never together. 

 

My point was that you used a measure that is hard to quantify, totally subjective to your own judgement which likely contains some bias, and has no comparative data to make a judgement against. 

 

Essentially you took a lot a lot of time to confirm something for yourself but not in a terribly meaningful way 

[Rico]

Never trade up

 

unless you have a bunch of extra draft picks from trading down and trading away misfits.

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Well Buffalo has been starving for a real starting QB for decades now and even at around 30% chance to get that possible franchise QB I think it's time to take it. We obviously traded back last year and made moves to give us more picks and set ourselves up to trade up and get our guy. You only get so many opportunities and this is it. Let's stop the save the picks and build around baloney and get our guy so that we finally have something to build around. Yeah it will suck if we miss but It will suck more if we never take that chance and our guy goes somewhere else and torments us for years.

[Domdab99]

Good post and interesting stats, and it just reaffirms my thoughts that the draft is one big crapshoot - no one knows who is going to hit and who is not - especially when it comes to QB. 

 

However, a few points:

 

While I’m not usually a proponent of trading up, I do feel that having a plethora of picks like the Bills do this year somewhat mitigates that problem. We’d still have a decent number of picks this year and next if we were to trade up. 

 

That being said, everyone pointing to Wentz and Goff as successes for teams who traded up need to realize that one year of decent play (Goff) and one year of superior play (Wentz) does not mean these players will continue playing at a high level. Both QBs struggled as starting rookies, and both have been much helped by good coaching and schemes.

Wentz may have to play with a knee brace the rest of his career, and can we really say that Foles wouldn’t have gotten the job done for Pederson all year in his place? It seems that coaching elevated both QBs in that system. 

 

Im torn, as I believe both Rosen and Mayfield might be worth trading up for. But I hate giving up picks when the team needs so much help at other positions. 

 

The Bills could hedge their bets and wait to see which QB falls out of the top ten...and then make a trade...or, just stand pat, and if a QB falls to them not named Rudolph, pick him then. 

 

I also wouldnt mind if the Bills did what the Redskins did the year they took two QBs in the draft - and the second one was the one who hit. 

 

Its an an interesting dilemma. But I have to stick with believing that trading up is most likely NOT worth it. All the stats say so. 

[Lurker]

9 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Essentially you took a lot a lot of time to confirm something for yourself but not in a terribly meaningful way 

 

And yet, 30 seconds of Googling finds ample support for his premise.   While some of his So-So's could be debated, the gist is generally correct.     

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/history-says-trading-up-for-a-first-round-quarterback-is-generally-a-terrible-idea/

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/4/18/15340020/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-mitchell-trubisky-nfl-history-trading-up-franchise-quarterback

 

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2018/01/does_trading_up_for_a_quarterback_in_the_nfl_draft.html

 

 

[BuffaloBill]

6 hours ago, cage said:

With all the talk of trading up I thought I would take a look at how well teams pick at the top half of the draft.  I looked at just the top 15 pics over a decade 2005-2015 (11 years).  I graded each pick as HIT / SO-SO / BUST.  I defined HIT as someone who had their 5th year option picked up, was re-signed by team drafting them or signed a big FA contract once their rookie deal was up.  For those still on their rookie contract they had to be full-time starters from year 1 and made the Pro-bowl.  That's what you'd expect from a top 15 pick.

 

Here are the results by position:

 

Position	Hit	So-so	Bust
QB	26%	32%	42%
RB	31%	38%	31%
WR	39%	17%	44%
OL	38%	38%	24%
DL	43%	26%	31%
LB	57%	17%	26%
DB	33%	38%	29%
Offense	34%	32%	34%
Defense	44%	27%	29%
Total	39%	29%	32%

 

Other than at LB the drafting success of the entire league scouting system for the top 15 picks of the draft is less than a coin flip.  These should be the most sure-fire perennial Pro Bowlers.  If the league's collective wisdom can't be above 50% with these pics, why would you ever trade up?  Much less, for a QB, which is the worst performing position.

 

I further looked at QBs in just the top 5 in the same period.  The HIT rate "rises" to 38%,... certainly uninspiring.  With at least 4 QBs projected in the top 15 pics, we should expect that at least 2 of them will be BUSTs.

 

 

 

 

 

The problem with your analysis is that the probability of picking a franchise QB after the top of the first round and then into later rounds drops precipitously.  It is amazing that the single most important position in the league is such a crap shoot.  I’ve long said that if the league truly wants to be competitive that every team should have to carry a developmental QB on its roster.  You could then make it even more interesting if you had them become FA’s at the three year point.  I suppose you could say that this is no different than backup QB’s but those guys get buried and don’t seem to move much.

[NoSaint]

17 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

One missed swing for the fences one year into the new regime could define their tenure.

 

I’d rather they get fired trying to get a star qb than be 7 years in and .500 with 3 wildcard games and 1 playoff win

[NoSaint]

23 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

And yet, 30 seconds of Googling finds ample support for his premise.   While some of his So-So's could be debated, the gist is generally correct.     

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/history-says-trading-up-for-a-first-round-quarterback-is-generally-a-terrible-idea/

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/4/18/15340020/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-mitchell-trubisky-nfl-history-trading-up-franchise-quarterback

 

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2018/01/does_trading_up_for_a_quarterback_in_the_nfl_draft.html

 

 

 

To be fair, I’ll again point out I never discussed QB in those posts... but if you want me to, I’ll bite...

 

Yes, top QBs often bust. It’s the toughest position to transition and they often land with talentless disfunctional franchises.

 

know what also sucks? Drafting guys that are second to third tier qb prospects. But, again, only putting the success rates of guys in the top 5 and not having a comp point for guys taken later (say day 2) makes that hard to discuss as I pointed out. 

 

Yes- going out and making a move might be the end of Beane but surely not crippling for the franchise. We just cut/traded/didn’t re-sign every day one and two pick made across 4-5 years and still made the playoffs. 

Edited March 3, 2018 by NoSaint

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

trade up, get your QB, period!

[Dadonkadonk]

2 hours ago, Foxx said:

right. because the team that just won the SuperBowl, traded up into the top 2, 2 years ago.  

And won the SB With a FA QB 

[BuffaloRush]

NEVER NEVER NEVER trade up.  You might end up with a QB like Carson Wentz or Jared Goff.

 

After the talent we’ve trotted out at QB, that’s one risk we can’t take

[Lurker]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Yes- going out and making a move might be the end of Beane but surely not crippling for the franchise. We just cut/traded/didn’t re-sign every day one and two pick made across 4-5 years and still made the playoffs. 

 

Thanks to Andy Dalton 

 

A QB-trade up/bust would surely doom this GM/HC combo.   No way this fan base/owner is patient enough to just shrug it off.

 

But as you say, the Not For Long league would just keep flowing and the Bills could easily be mediocre for another 5-6 years...

[White Linen]

1 minute ago, cage said:

 

I didn't have an objective in looking for anything particularly related to QBs.  What gave me the idea to do this was a different thread a couple days ago that was suggesting that a trade-up was worth it for a "future HOFer" regardless of position.  The OP in that thread was suggesting G Quenton Nelson.  I wanted to see if OL or any particular position warranted any thought like that.  The analysis was a comparison of all positions, but just devolved into talk about QB for obvious reasons...

 

You'll agree that these numbers are skewed by QB's being taken out of draft order to do the enormous importance of the position?  Hence teams climb over each other and players with higher grades to get one.

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

 

Thanks to Andy Dalton 

 

A QB-trade up/bust would surely doom this GM/HC combo.   No way this fan base/owner is patient enough to just shrug it off.

 

But as you say, the Not For Long league would just keep flowing and the Bills could easily be mediocre for another 5-6 years...

 

But ultimately, Beane isn’t the bread winner in my house so if he gets fired and in 3 years someone else takes a swing... big deal? 

 

Im not pointing this one at you but there seem to be some posters that are scared that if we miss we are about to start another decade without a chance at the playoffs. It’s not ideal but it’s not the end of the world as long as you are willing to move on from the bust

[BringBackOrton]

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

While this is true, the reality is that the draft is such a crap shoot, even at the top, that trading up is probably not going to be a winning proposition for most teams that do it even for a QB.  QBs who are the consensus #1 pick are about as close to "can't miss" picks as possible; they hit at about 80% since 2000.  Even QBs drafted in positions 2-4 fail almost 50% of the time while QBs from 5-32 hit at about 25%.  Except for Wentz, teams trading up for QBs outside the #1 pick have found duds instead of studs over the last 15 years, including JP Losman (2004), Mark Sanchez (2009), and Robert Griffin III.

 

This year there's not even a consensus #1 QB, so drafting a QB is even more dicey, and trading up is nothing but a crap shoot.

 

 

This is the attitude that has resulted in the Bills' failure to find a good QB for a quarter of a century.   Drafting a QB in the first round just to draft one is a flawed strategy because sometimes there just isn't a good one available (EJ Manuel in 2013).  Trading up to do that is even stupider (JP Losman in 2004).   The Bills need to approach drafting a QB with the primary goal of winning football games, not to placate fans to sell tickets, which is what they've done in the past.

 

 

The Bills missed on a trade up in 2004, the Jests missed on a trade up in 2009, and Washington missed on a trade up in 2012.

 

 

Well, if I win the top prize in Powerball, I'm set for life, too.

 

 

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

That's not what I said at all.  I said drafting a first round QB was risky, but that drafting a QB who was the #1 consensus pick was a pretty safe bet.  I also said that trading up to draft a first round QB, especially in a year like 2018 where there's no clear consensus best QB, is even riskier.  I also said that the Bills have drafted QBs in the first rounds in the last quarter century for the wrong reason: to put butts in the seats -- and that's cost them big time, primarily in the lost opportunities to draft QBs who could have actually helped them win games: Aaron Rodgers (2005), Jay Cutler (2006), Joe Flacco (2008), Teddy Bridgewater (2014), and Derek Carr (2014) -- all useful QBs who were better than Losman or Manuel.  Keep in mind that when a team drafts a first round QB, they aren't going to draft another first round QB for about 4 years unless said QB is a bust like a JaMarcus Russell or Johnny Manziel.

 

 

I hope you are right.  Like the OP, I'm not opposed to trading up a few spots to take Mayfield, but I don't think it's possible for the Bills to get into the Top 4 short of sacrificing too much for a QB who's more likely to bust than not, which would likely be Rosen.  If Jackson was available at #21, I'd take him (not at #22!).  I don't know if I'd spend a first rounder on Allen or Rudolph.

 

 

In case you missed it, that team was so good it overcame numerous injuries to key players, including their starting QB, and won the SB with a backup QB.  .

There's no evidence that EJ or JP were drafted for ticket sales.  That's a hindsight argument because they ended up sucking.

 

This "when a team drafts a first round QB they have to wait" nonsense is just that.  There is zero, and I mean ZERO reason to let your decision have consequences like that.

 

The argument of "waiting" to let a QB fall to us can just as easily result in an EJ/JP/Paxton Lynch/Manziel scenario.  You go get your #1 guy, not the 4th or 5th best QB that happens to fall to you because you're too chicken **** to take a chance.

[Domdab99]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

NEVER NEVER NEVER trade up.  You might end up with a QB like Carson Wentz or Jared Goff.

 

After the talent we’ve trotted out at QB, that’s one risk we can’t take

 

What makes you think one year of success is going to mean ten+ years of QB stability for those two teams? 

 

Small sample size is small. 

[Lurker]

2 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

You'll agree that these numbers are skewed by QB's being taken out of draft order to do the enormous importance of the position?  Hence teams climb over each other and players with higher grades to get one.

 

Not really.   The group-think of draft ratings, buzz, media and fan pressure generally push QBs up each year, causing teams to irrationally say 'It will be worth it this time."   

 

The QBs go where they're slotted and the teams that trade up are the ones who go out of order...

[BringBackOrton]

7 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

What makes you think one year of success is going to mean ten+ years of QB stability for those two teams? 

 

Small sample size is small. 

Lol so basically we won't know if trading up for Wentz was a good move until he's a HoFer 10 years from now?

 

That's a reasonable expectation.  MVP candidate and key contributor to a Super Bowl winning team.  Not enough!

Edited March 3, 2018 by jmc12290

[Domdab99]

2 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Lol so basically we won't know if trading up for Wentz was a good move until he's a HoFer 10 years from now?

 

That's a reasonable expectation.  MVP candidate and key contributor to a Super Bowl winning team.  Not enough!

 

If he was so key, how'd they win the SB without him?

[RochesterRob]

4 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

It all depends on the circumstances of where the team is as well as the player and position involved.  I have a feeling that the Falcons aren't regretting the decision to trade up for Julio Jones and KC will be ecstatic if Mahomes turns out to be an excellent QB.

  I am glad somebody is using the word "if" when talking about Mahomes.  There has been too much talk about us bypassing Mahomes as though he already accomplished something in the NFL.

[Rico]

11 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

But ultimately, Beane isn’t the bread winner in my house so if he gets fired and in 3 years someone else takes a swing... big deal? 

 

Im not pointing this one at you but there seem to be some posters that are scared that if we miss we are about to start another decade without a chance at the playoffs. It’s not ideal but it’s not the end of the world as long as you are willing to move on from the bust

No doubt that is the key.

[BringBackOrton]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

 

If he was so key, how'd they win the SB without him?

Because they also had a good team.

 

Carson Wentz finished with the second most passing TD's in the NFL last year, and he only played 13 games.  They only lost two of those games.  He was almost assuredly going to be the MVP pre-injury.

 

Saying that "we're not sure if that's good" is just so asinine it's bizarre.  Don't let EJ ruin your life.  We can get a good QB.

[FearLess Price]

 

Trade up and draft the future of this franchise. We have been passing on top QBs, trading back, etc...for the whole drought. That hasnt worked. Why would you want them to keep doing that? It makes no sense.

[Domdab99]

9 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Because they also had a good team.

 

Carson Wentz finished with the second most passing TD's in the NFL last year, and he only played 13 games.  They only lost two of those games.  He was almost assuredly going to be the MVP pre-injury.

 

Saying that "we're not sure if that's good" is just so asinine it's bizarre.  Don't let EJ ruin your life.  We can get a good QB.

 

He had a great year, I agree. But we don't know if that will continue. Word is he won't even be ready to stat the season. And when he does he play, he'll be in a brace. I'm just saying that it could be that Wentz is in the right system and under the right coaches. How would he be doing in, say, the Buc's organization? 

 

Also, one, maybe two instances of trading up for a QB where it works does not cancel out the many, many times teams have traded up for a QB and it did not work out. Hello, JP Losman!

[KD in CA]

It's not trading up that's the problem.  It's trading up for players like JP Losman, John McCargo and Sammy Watkins.

 

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Domdab99 said:

 

He had a great year, I agree. But we don't know if that will continue. Word is he won't even be ready to stat the season. And when he does he play, he'll be in a brace. I'm just saying that it could be that Wentz is in the right system and under the right coaches. How would he be doing in, say, the Buc's organization? 

 

Also, one, maybe two instances of trading up for a QB where it works does not cancel out the many, many times teams have traded up for a QB and it did not work out. Hello, JP Losman!

Hello Deshaun Watson.  Goff.  We may be adding Mahomes to the party as well.

 

Do you think the Eagles will give back the Super Bowl trophy if Wentz has a brace next year? What are you even trying to argue here?  He got hurt, ergo, don't draft players because they might get hurt too?

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

39 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

And won the SB With a FA QB 

 

so you don't credit wentz for 11 wins before the injury in helping them to reach the postseason? you really believe he would of done worse then the FA QB in his stead?

 

they still likely would of been champions had wentz finished the season.

 

In 13 starts, Wentz finished the year with 3,296 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a 60.2 completion percentage, and a 101.9 quarterback rating.

 

TRADE UP!!

 

get your QB

Edited March 3, 2018 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Domdab99]

1 hour ago, jmc12290 said:

Hello Deshaun Watson.  Goff.  We may be adding Mahomes to the party as well.

 

Do you think the Eagles will give back the Super Bowl trophy if Wentz has a brace next year? What are you even trying to argue here?  He got hurt, ergo, don't draft players because they might get hurt too?

 

Again, We don't know if Watson or Mahomes are going to be long-term solutions at QB yet. They look good, but who knows? 

 

And yes, I'd certainly like to be in the Eagles' shoes. It must be nice to win a SB. But I really don't think they won because they traded up for Wentz. Like you said, the rest of the team was good, too. 

 

All OP is saying that the stats clearly say DON'T TRADE UP FOR A QB. Recent history excepted, of course. It's not a clear cut decision. I want a QB as bad as you, I just don't want to give away the farm to do it. 

Edited March 3, 2018 by Domdab99