Jackson, Rudolph or Pass

[Kirby Jackson]

This exercise assumes that the Bills will not trade up and will not have signed Cousins. They will have signed a placeholder guy in this scenario Bradford/Bridgewater/Tyrod/McCown. 

 

We have discussed a lot, the guy(s) that we want. Let’s say that the Bills stay put and the likely scenario or Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield and Allen are off the board. What should the Bills do at 21/22? Should they take Rudolph or Jackson or not draft a QB in the 1st? 

 

This is feels like a relatively realistic scenario. Please don’t provide ridiculous suggestions like “sign Garoppolo or Brees.” Let’s try to be realistic. 

[Chuck Wagon]

Jackson.  Has been the best player in college football the last 2 years.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Chuck Wagon said:

Jackson.  Has been the best player in college football the last 2 years.  

 

Lolno

[Chuck Wagon]

9 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Lolno

 

 

Insightful.  At least you didn't say "He's just like Tyrod".

[ddaryl]

To early for me to tell

 

Jackson could be a WIlson type of QB, but his accuracy issues are a concern...

 

Rudolph has some questions regarding his ability to scan the full field and a few arm strength concerns

 

I honestly haven't read enough to think either of them should be drafted in the 1st rd, Both will require a year or 2 of grooming

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Insightful.  At least you didn't say "He's just like Tyrod".

 

Equally as insightful as your completely incorrect assertion that he was the best player in cfb the past two years. If he was he’d be a consensus number 1 pick. Strangely enough he’s not.

[WideRightRevenge]

OK .. agree as a college player .. Jackson has had more impact .. but that's due to his rushing stats .. I think history shows (see Tyrod) that rushing based QB's vs. pocket passers don't translate to the NFL ... the three year trend of Mason Rudolph looks good . .but history of Big 12 QBs excelling in NFL is limited due to wide open spread offenses.  But of the two I'd take Rudolph at 21 or 22, its worth a flier.

 

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Oklahoma State					915	1447	63.2	13618	9.4	9.9	92	26	159.7
*2014	Oklahoma State	Big 12	FR	QB	3	49	86	57.0	853	9.9	9.2	6	4	154.0
*2015	Oklahoma State	Big 12	SO	QB	13	264	424	62.3	3770	8.9	8.9	21	9	149.1
*2016	Oklahoma State	Big 12	JR	QB	13	284	448	63.4	4091	9.1	10.0	28	4	158.9
2017	Oklahoma State	Big 12	SR	QB	13	318	489	65.0	4904	10.0	10.7	37	9	170.6

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, joesixpack said:

 

Equally as insightful as your completely incorrect assertion that he was the best player in cfb the past two years. If he was he’d be a consensus number 1 pick. Strangely enough he’s not.

It’s really not ridiculous at all to think that. He won a Heisman and was a finalist on a team that was only 8-5. Tim Tebow, Eric Crouch, Gino Torretta and Jason White were once the best players in college football. Should they have been consensus #1 picks?

[Just Joshin']

I don't know if Rudolph is a good choice but Jackson is a bad choice IMO.  His accuracy issues would need a substantial improvement, not a marginal tweak.

[Chuck Wagon]

12 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Equally as insightful as your completely incorrect assertion that he was the best player in cfb the past two years. If he was he’d be a consensus number 1 pick. Strangely enough he’s not.

 

Best player in college football doesn't automatically mean #1 pick.  Hell, there's been years where guys who had minimal impact in college football get drafted top 10 because they had impressive combine numbers.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Jackson is not going to make it in the NFL, I see him being a clone of TT. He won't trust his arm at the next level and NFL defenses know how to shut down a athletic QB with accuracy issues. From what I have been hearing from the Bills GM I highly doubt we draft Jackson.

[Chuck Wagon]

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.  I just don't believe Rudolph has the arm talent to succeed in Buffalo and having guys like Washington / Ateman / Carson, I'm not sure there's a QB who did less with more than Rudolph.

[ProcessTheTrust]

I'm just curious, does everyone who knows for sure that Jackson won't be good  - were you the same people who knew Watson wouldn't be good - or better yet, STILL think he's not that good? I get that the mechanics of a protypical QB are important, but sometimes, when an athlete is a freak and has "IT", the seemingly big issues aren't as big. Us reaching for EJ has scarred us for life because our GM/scouts didn't recognize he didn't have the "IT" factor to cover his flaws. I'm not saying Jackson will be good for sure. I'm just not convinced the reasons he will suck are going to hold up. It's not that simple.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.  I just don't believe Rudolph has the arm talent to succeed in Buffalo and having guys like Washington / Ateman / Carson, I'm not sure there's a QB who did less with more than Rudolph.

This has been my thinking as well. It holds especially true when you add in Mike Gundy’s system.

 

Jackson to me is a little boom or bust but has developed each year as a passer. He wouldn’t be my first choice for that reason but in the scenario above he’d be my choice. 

[WideRightRevenge]

7 minutes ago, ProcessTheTrust said:

I'm just curious, does everyone who knows for sure that Jackson won't be good  - were you the same people who knew Watson wouldn't be good - or better yet, STILL think he's not that good? I get that the mechanics of a protypical QB are important, but sometimes, when an athlete is a freak and has "IT", the seemingly big issues aren't as big. Us reaching for EJ has scarred us for life because our GM/scouts didn't recognize he didn't have the "IT" factor to cover his flaws. I'm not saying Jackson will be good for sure. I'm just not convinced the reasons he will suck are going to hold up. It's not that simple.

 

I think Watson's passing stats more mirror Rudolph (see my above post) vs. Jacksons .. Watson was more of a passer in college than Jackson.

 

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Clemson					814	1207	67.4	10168	8.4	8.7	90	32	157.5
*2014	Clemson	ACC	FR	QB	8	93	137	67.9	1466	10.7	12.1	14	2	188.6
*2015	Clemson	ACC	SO	QB	15	333	491	67.8	4109	8.4	8.6	35	13	156.3
*2016	Clemson	ACC	JR	QB	15	388	579	67.0	4593	7.9	8.0	41	17	151.1

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This has been my thinking as well. It holds especially true when you add in Mike Gundy’s system.

 

Jackson to me is a little boom or bust but has developed each year as a passer. He wouldn’t be my first choice for that reason but in the scenario above he’d be my choice. 

 

I don't follow college football closely but Sal C was talking about him the other day and his concern is he's a below 60% completion percentage in a Bobby Petrino offense.

I don't think Jackson is being considered by the Bills.  Every time Beane talks about what they're looking for in a QB, he just sounds like he wants that traditional pocket passer.  Not that Jackson can't do it but that's not the type of QB he is.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

23 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

Best player in college football doesn't automatically mean #1 pick.  Hell, there's been years where guys who had minimal impact in college football get drafted top 10 because they had impressive combine numbers.

 

Just say no to non pocket passers. Been there done that over it.

[Chuck Wagon]

10 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I don't follow college football closely but Sal C was talking about him the other day and his concern is he's a below 60% completion percentage in a Bobby Petrino offense.

I don't think Jackson is being considered by the Bills.  Every time Beane talks about what they're looking for in a QB, he just sounds like he wants that traditional pocket passer.  Not that Jackson can't do it but that's not the type of QB he is.

 

Which I completely understand.  If you aren't putting Jackson into an offense that utilizes his skills, he's not the right pick.  I just think Rudolph has had NFL talent in a wide open league and has consistently underwhelmed. 

[Virgil]

Jackson reminds me of Geno with legs.

 

Rudolph being in the spread worries me, as that success rarely translates

[Magox]

I'm going to trust what Beane/McD's evaluation.   Lamar has gotten better each year and would be the best running QB since Michael Vick.  I do believe he will have a career in the NFL I just don't know if it will be as a successful starting QB.    Rudolph is less sexy but he's a good pocket passer.  Throws with anticipation, good accuracy and has the look of what a pocket passer should look like.  His lack of arm strength is a concern but I don't find it to be all that weak either.    If I had to choose myself, which would be a very uninformed view it would be Rudolph.   

[MrEpsYtown]

If you aren't getting one of the top two I say pass. Unless you think you are getting a Derek Carr, who everyone undervalued.  

[oldmanfan]

I wouldn't take either.  Jackson isn't accurate enough and Rudolph I don't think will adapt mentally to the NFL game.  A month or so ago I read an ESPN scouting thing where two scouts said Rudolph should be at best a day 3 pick.

 

i don't follow college football that closely but if I'm Beane I am looking for someone who has had experience ina more pro style offense, that has had to make reads.  And I look for accuracy over arm strength if I have to pick one over the other.  TT's issue has been that he is accuracy is questionable, thus he has trouble fitting the ball into tight windows and waits for guys to be wide open.

This is no longer the AFL where you get one on one coverage and the Mad Bomber throws the ball 60 yards downfield.  It's more short to intermediate passing game.  You have to have an arm to make the sideline throws true, but most guys have that.

 

So so give me a kid like that even if from a small school.  I think the kid from Western KY fits the bill?  I'd also keep working with Peterman.  The Chargers game was a negative of course but continue to coach him up and see what you have.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I don't follow college football closely but Sal C was talking about him the other day and his concern is he's a below 60% completion percentage in a Bobby Petrino offense.

I don't think Jackson is being considered by the Bills.  Every time Beane talks about what they're looking for in a QB, he just sounds like he wants that traditional pocket passer.  Not that Jackson can't do it but that's not the type of QB he is.

He, much like Allen, played with trash. His completion percentage has risen each year. Jackson has really been a good player from the pocket and has a big arm. The draft breakdown video of him in the college football forum is pretty good. He’s not a guy that just runs around and tries to make plays.

 

With that being said, I don’t think that he is a guy that would interest Beane. I could see Daboll liking him though. Beane certainly likes Rudolph. They saw him a few times live including the bowl game (which was the best that I saw Rudolph). 

8 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Just say no to non pocket passers. Been there done that over it.

So you don’t like Baker? He plays out of the pocket WAY more than Jackson. 

[Gordio]

22 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.  I just don't believe Rudolph has the arm talent to succeed in Buffalo and having guys like Washington / Ateman / Carson, I'm not sure there's a QB who did less with more than Rudolph.

 

 

The kid threw for nearly 14,000 yards, had a career 63% CP, 92 TDS & only 26 Ints & had 9.4 yards per attempt & 157 QBR.  He has also started every game for OSU since his sophomore year.  What more do you want him to do? 

 

If Rudolph is on the board by the time the Bills pick comes I hope they run to the podium with his name on the card. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He, much like Allen, played with trash. His completion percentage has risen each year. Jackson has really been a good player from the pocket and has a big arm. The draft breakdown video of him in the college football forum is pretty good. He’s not a guy that just runs around and tries to make plays.

 

With that being said, I don’t think that he is a guy that would interest Beane. I could see Daboll liking him though. Beane certainly likes Rudolph. They saw him a few times live including the bowl game (which was the best that I saw Rudolph). 

So you don’t like Baker? He plays out of the pocket WAY more than Jackson. 

 

No im not a fan of baker. Short small hands and mobile. The unholy trinity 

[CommonCents]

Good discussion, reminds me why I don't want to see the Bills keep both picks. None of the three scenarios are desirable. 

 

By selecting either QB the team would be admitting they need to use valuable assets to fix the position but they are not committed to it.

 

Go up and get your guy. 

 

Passing on all the QB's would be the worst outcome IMO.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Gordio said:

 

 

The kid threw for nearly 14,000 yards, had a career 63% CP, 92 TDS & only 26 Ints & had 9.4 yards per attempt & 157 QBR.  He has also started every game for OSU since his sophomore year.  What more do you want him to do? 

 

If Rudolph is on the board by the time the Bills pick comes I hope they run to the podium with his name on the card. 

I don’t want to speak for anyone else but that team was supposed to be a national title contender. They played in the Camping Word Bowl.

1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

 

No im not a fan of baker. Short small hands and mobile. The unholy trinity 

That’s fair.

[Teddy KGB]

Everyone who said DeShaun Watson was another Tyrod should be tarred and feathered.  

 

I cant comment on this Jackson kid, but the Tyrod comps are probably uninformed and lazy as well.  

[Gordio]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t want to speak for anyone else but that team was supposed to be a national title contender. They played in the Camping Word Bowl.

 

They didn't have a bad year.  They went 10-3.  They loss to Oklahoma where they put up 52 points, they loss to Kansas St where they put up 40 points & they loss to TCU where they put up 31 points.  You can't possibly be putting these losses on Rudolph. 

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, Teddy KGB said:

Everyone who said DeShaun Watson was another Tyrod should be tarred and feathered.  

 

I cant comment on this Jackson kid, but the Tyrod comps are probably uninformed and lazy as well.  

Watson, Taylor, Jackson are all different players.

 

IMO from what I have seen of Jackson he would is a bigger highlight film than Tyrod but even less of a QB. Watson was always a QB, I personally doubted his arm, after a brief review it looks fine.

 

 

[simool]

White

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Gordio said:

 

They didn't have a bad year.  They went 10-3.  They loss to Oklahoma where they put up 52 points, they loss to Kansas St where they put up 40 points & they loss to TCU where they put up 31 points.  You can't possibly be putting these losses on Rudolph. 

 

Actual factual

[LeGOATski]

Rudolph is the obvious pick here. He's even better than Josh Allen

[Chuck Wagon]

11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t want to speak for anyone else but that team was supposed to be a national title contender. They played in the Camping Word Bowl.

 

 

 

Bingo.

 

Just win.  Their biggest games were also his worst games.  I really don't care about numbers in the Big 12, but when you play your 3 worst games of the year against your 3 best opponents, that's a red flag.

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

No im not a fan of baker. Short small hands and mobile. The unholy trinity 

 

These are the exact reasons this regime is not going to draft him. I'm not saying he's not going to be good. He might be. But it's not a risk this regime is going to be willing to make.  The off-field stuff doesn't help either. McBeane have been ultra conservative in their thinking so far and Brandon Beane has said that the most important quality for a quarterback is to be able to win from inside the pocket. 

 

They aren't going to hitch their careers on this guy, or a guy like Jackson. I think they try to trade up for Darnold, Allen, Rosen. If they can't get one of those guys they develop Peterman and maybe draft a guy like White, Ferguson, or Falk later in the draft.  If you aren't getting the elite prospect, you are really just getting another Peterman. 

 

Just remember though, it is extremely early in the process. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Bingo.

 

Just win.  Their biggest games were also his worst games.  I really don't care about numbers in the Big 12, but when you play your 3 worst games of the year against your 3 best opponents, that's a red flag.

 

Howd Lamar fare in big games?

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

These are the exact reasons this regime is not going to draft him. I'm not saying he's not going to be good. He might be. But it's not a risk this regime is going to be willing to make.  The off-field stuff doesn't help either. McBeane have been ultra conservative in their thinking so far and Brandon Beane has said that the most important quality for a quarterback is to be able to win from inside the pocket. 

 

They aren't going to hitch their careers on this guy, or a guy like Jackson. I think they try to trade up for Darnold, Allen, Rosen. If they can't get one of those guys they develop Peterman and maybe draft a guy like White, Ferguson, or Falk later in the draft.  If you aren't getting the elite prospect, you are really just getting another Peterman. 

 

Just remember though, it is extremely early in the process. 

 

Your lips to gods ears. No more mobile qb. 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

They didn't have a bad year.  They went 10-3.  They loss to Oklahoma where they put up 52 points, they loss to Kansas St where they put up 40 points & they loss to TCU where they put up 31 points.  You can't possibly be putting these losses on Rudolph. 

I didn’t say that it was a bad year but I think that they would absolutely be disappointed to not be in a New Year’s 6 Bowl. 

 

He played okay in those games but did turn it over 7 times.

[MrEpsYtown]

7 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Everyone who said DeShaun Watson was another Tyrod should be tarred and feathered.  

 

I cant comment on this Jackson kid, but the Tyrod comps are probably uninformed and lazy as well.  

 

Agreed it is a lazy comp. I will say that O'Brien and the Texans staff adjusted the offense to fit what Watson does well and it was similar to what he was doing in Clemson. NFL defenses catch up to that stuff, kind of like what we saw with Kap, RG3 etc. I'm not saying this will happen to Watson, but I want to see him have success in a true pro system before I anoint him. 

[clayboy54]

In my estimation Kirby, the real decision here is where the Bills' braintrust sees the need at QB. Because, as others have pointed out, if they prioritize QB as a "must have" this year, then they WILL trade up. If, on the other hand, they do not prioritize QB as "must have" then they will pass in the 1st round. It's an either/or proposition. Not so much a "what if".

 

So, for the sake of discussion, let's say that the Bills feel QB is "must have." IMO, they will make a deal to get the guy they want, or one of the guys they like. They will absolutely NOT stand at 21 and see whose left. Its as simple as that in my mind.

Edited January 18, 2018 by clayboy54

[CommonCents]

2 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Howd Lamar fare in big games?

 

Your lips to gods ears. No more mobile qb. 

Rushing Peterman out there showed McBeane's hand. They want a guy who can distribute the ball. I fully expect them to find a passer.