Why I Think the Smart Move is Pay to Get Cousins

[Royale with Cheese]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'll jump back in.  A couple of things. 

 

First, to reiterate a point I made earlier, I think there's a difference between overpaying for a QB and overpaying for a position player.   If you pay top 3 money to a receiver or a tackle or a linebacker who turns out to be top 10 at his position, you've overpaid and it was a mistake.    You could have gotten as effective a guy for a lot less.   Like Sammy.   The Bills paid two first round picks plus for a guy who performed like several guys they could have gotten with one pick.   So that was a mistake. 

 

At QB it's different.   If you pay top 3 money for a QB who turns out to be the 10th best QB in the league, it's not a mistake.    You're paying too much, but it isn't a mistake, because you couldn't have gotten another guy who's 10th best.   They just aren't easy to find.  

 

More importantly, if you have the 10th best receiver, or 10th best offensive tackle, that guy isn't on his own putting you in the playoff conversation year in and year out.   If you have the 10th best QB, you are in the conversation.    

 

If you pay top 3 money for a QB and he turns out to be the 15th best AB, then you've made a mistake, because the 15th best QB DOESN'T put you in the playoff discussion.  

 

Yes, whoever gets Cousins will have overpaid for him.   But I think it won't be a mistake. 

 

Second, a lot of the discussion has turned to whether Cousins would come to Buffalo.   Someone said there's an SI article about what he's looking for and how McD is the kind of guy he'd like.  I'll need to go find that article - my sense has been exactly that.   Cousins is a guy who LIKES being in a program, a system, where everyone has a role and where he can do his.    

 

I don't think people should overlook the ability of OBD to sell itself now.   Terry and Kim are a very attractive pair - they're pleasant, warm, charming, and earnest.   The simple fact that they're spending BILLIONS of dollars because they want to do something for Buffalo is pretty impressive.  It speaks to their sincerity.   Then you get to Bean and McDermott, two guys who are interest, deadly serious and committed.   They LOOK like winners.    That's a pretty impressive package.   

 

So I think if the Bills decide that Cousins is someone they want, I think they'll be willing to spend and they'll sell themselves quite well. 

 

The Giants, by virtue of tradition and market, would be formidable competition.   I don't think they'd shy away from the bidding just because they have Eli.  They'd find a way to deal with the cap and compensation issues.   The Giants problem is they don't have a coach, and the team actually is in much more disarray than the Bills.   The Bills offer a stable package going forward; the Giants are up in the air.   

 

The Broncos would seem to be more attractive.   Elway is an attraction.   There probably are other things that might make the Broncos a place he'd like. 

 

But let's go back to the Bills for a minute.   I think there are some other things, intangibles, that might make Buffalo especially attractive to him.   One is the challenge of bringing a championship to the city.    But think about this:

 

Cousins is from Illinois, I think.   He went to high school in Michigan, played at Michigan State, and has played pro ball on the East Coast.   His parents now live in Florida.   I think he's and east coast/midwest guy, and Denver may have little geographic appeal to him.  

 

Moreover, his father's a pastor, he went to a Christian high school, he participated in Athletes in Action in college.   McD and I believe Beane are serious Christians - they don't beat people over the head with it, so far as I can tell, but if Cousins is a serious Christian, there's a good chance he's going to feel a connection to McD.   And having an owner who lives in Florida where is parents live is another connection.  

 

Not saying it's going to happen, but I don't think it's far-fetched.  

 

You’re always going to overpay for QB’s because of how important the position is.

 

Cousins will be overpaid just like Jameis Winston will be a few years, Goff and Wentz will follow.  Stafford and Carr last year..

 

 

[GoBills808]

31 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Please understand, these arent my opinions. I'm going off of what I've literally heard Cousins say in interviews. I'm digging hard for a link or something in print, but it wasnt too long ago I saw this. He/his agent basically said that it didnt matter how much the offer from Washington was, they weren't going to sign it last year, and they still arent going to sign it this year. And they've seen enough of a poorly run franchise to prioritize moving to a better FO. Much like how Eli refused San Diego for the Giants, and Elway refused the Colts for Denver.

 

Also, I don't think you are giving the Broncos enough credit, and I dont blame you because I used to think that way as well. I was surprised to learn it, but apparently that franchise is incredibly well respected across the Pro Sports world.

Two days ago Cousins apparently said he would consider playing for the Browns.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/report-kirk-cousins-would-seriously-consider-playing-for-the-browns/

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

His top target Jordan Reed says hello.  LT Trent Williams says hello. I could go on. 

Yeah a TE that’s constantly hurt and a LT. big time weapons 

[Royale with Cheese]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Flacco and the Ravens won a SB, they were going to pay him whatever he wanted. That's just how it goes, and rightfully so: if you told me within the next 5 years we'd win a championship but be saddled with a monster Cousins contract that would strap us for 7 years...wouldn't you take that deal every day?

Also OldTime, you don't put up Cousins' numbers being mediocre. He's borderline elite IMO. He's just playing on a mediocre team.

 

We’re eventually going to have to overpay a QB....whether it’s now or a few years down the road.  You’re in a good spot if you have someone that you can pay a ridiculous contract.

 

i like the idea of Cousins because he keeps us competitive now.  Our defense is a few positions away from being very good.

 

Next best thing is the draft but they probably means a step back next year which I would hate.

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Two days ago Cousins apparently said he would consider playing for the Browns.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/report-kirk-cousins-would-seriously-consider-playing-for-the-browns/

 

lol, fair enough. we'll see.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

lol, fair enough. we'll see.

 

I think that’s just a way his agent is driving up his contract.

 

Man sucks to be a Browns fan...”I’ll even consider playing for your team!”

 

Its like saying “I’ll even consider going to a Jacksonville strip club if I have to”

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

We’re eventually going to have to overpay a QB....whether it’s now or a few years down the road.  You’re in a good spot if you have someone that you can pay a ridiculous contract.

 

i like the idea of Cousins because he keeps us competitive now.  Our defense is a few positions away from being very good.

 

Next best thing is the draft but they probably means a step back next year which I would hate.

Exactly this. Windows are short and patience is a commodity. Take your chance now with Cousins, use the draft to fill needs, hope for the best in 2 years. And since Cousins is significantly better NOW than any rookie QB will be in 2018 (and maybe ever), it's lower-risk than moving up in the first round. Plus if it works out, he's only 29.

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You’re always going to overpay for QB’s because of how important the position is.

 

Cousins will be overpaid just like Jameis Winston will be a few years, Goff and Wentz will follow.  Stafford and Carr last year..

 

 

And I'd say that it's better than even money that at least one of those is going to be a disappointment, in the sense that he got, say, top 5 money but turns out to be only a top 15 guy.   In other words, at least one will be the next Flacco.  

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Exactly this. Windows are short and patience is a commodity. Take your chance now with Cousins, use the draft to fill needs, hope for the best in 2 years. And since Cousins is significantly better NOW than any rookie QB will be in 2018 (and maybe ever), it's lower-risk than moving up in the first round. Plus if it works out, he's only 29.

Yes.

 

He'd be an upgrade right now, and you keep drafting QBs.   That way you have his replacement on board if Cousins turns out not be THE answer.  

[Royale with Cheese]

16 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Their defense has been pretty much on the same level as the Bills.  Aside from that, Cousins isn't a great decision maker and he throws for big yards because of the offense he plays in with a high volume of pass attempts. 

 

I understand the reluctance to pay Cousins the highest contract at the position when he’s not in the top 5 among QB’s.  But that’s what the position commands.  Carr and Stafford got their mega deals because of it.

 

IMO opinion, Cousins is a top 10 QB in a bad organization.  

[Shaw66]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I understand the reluctance to pay Cousins the highest contract at the position when he’s not in the top 5 among QB’s.  But that’s what the position commands.  Carr and Stafford got their mega deals because of it.

 

IMO opinion, Cousins is a top 10 QB in a bad organization.  

That's where I started.   I think he's top 10.   On the bubble, but top 10.  

 

The whole point is (1) you're have to overpay him to get him and (2) it's worth it to overpay him if he's actually top 10.   Worth it at top 10 or better, a mistake at top 15 or worse.  

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's where I started.   I think he's top 10.   On the bubble, but top 10.  

 

The whole point is (1) you're have to overpay him to get him and (2) it's worth it to overpay him if he's actually top 10.   Worth it at top 10 or better, a mistake at top 15 or worse.  

 

The QB position is like a used Toyota.  You can keep the prices higher than other used cars because people will pay that because they are reliable vehicles.  

[DrDawkinstein]

15 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I think that’s just a way his agent is driving up his contract.

 

Man sucks to be a Browns fan...”I’ll even consider playing for your team!”

 

Its like saying “I’ll even consider going to a Jacksonville strip club if I have to”

 

[Foxx]

49 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'll jump back in.  A couple of things. 

 

First, to reiterate a point I made earlier, I think there's a difference between overpaying for a QB and overpaying for a position player.   If you pay top 3 money to a receiver or a tackle or a linebacker who turns out to be top 10 at his position, you've overpaid and it was a mistake.    You could have gotten as effective a guy for a lot less.   Like Sammy.   The Bills paid two first round picks plus for a guy who performed like several guys they could have gotten with one pick.   So that was a mistake. 

 

At QB it's different.   If you pay top 3 money for a QB who turns out to be the 10th best QB in the league, it's not a mistake.    You're paying too much, but it isn't a mistake, because you couldn't have gotten another guy who's 10th best.   They just aren't easy to find.  ...

 

...

seriously? are you even thinking before you let your fingers touch the keyboard? there is so much wrong with this logic that i am left flabbergasted and wouldn't even know where to begin to express it's failings. amazing.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Foxx

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

The Redskins for whatever reason have avoided making a long term commitment to him. That has to mean something. Teams just don’t let franchise guys walk like they are about to.

This is the team that signed Haynsworth and RG III.  

 

They hired a GM with a known drinking problem and let him go because of a drinking problem.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Jackson Reed and Garcon I answered...Crowder is a 4th round pick that Cousins made and NOT the other way around. Morris's one year (only one) with Cousins he averaged 3.7YPC. Do your homework.

Jordon Reed?  

 

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

And hes put up 9000 yards and 54 TDs with them.  What more do you want a QB to do? 

Have a name like Tyrod Taylor? 

 

? 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

This is the team that signed Haynsworth and RG III.  

 

They hired a GM with a known drinking problem and let him go because of a drinking problem.  

 

 

Jordon Reed?  

 

 

...But Bruce Allen is Prez and was pretty well respected for work in TB....think he is George Allen's kid.......why wouldn't he step in to override Cerralo or McCloughan ??........

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

So...nothing? Just more snide? 

This is what you get when he’s not pasting other people’s information and data. 

Snark and ridicule. 

 

Or mind your your own business.  

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

58 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I’ve read the argument several times that the reason Taylor wasn’t more successful here is because if the defense.... specifically the Rex Ryan years.  Why can’t the same argument be made for Cousins who have had a worse defense?

Hippo crazy 

 

Two days running of  ranting.  Someone needs a vacation to relax.  

10 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...But Bruce Allen is Prez and was pretty well respected for work in TB....think he is George Allen's kid.......why wouldn't he step in to override Cerralo or McCloughan ??........

I’ll say it again.  

Im not a huge Cousins fan but I will say it is on DC and that he is better than Tyrod.   

[Shaw66]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No it wouldn't. We took a swing on a Quarterback in 2013 that didn't work out and after riding with him in his rookie year we have won 9, 8, 7 and 9 games the next 4 games.

 

Missing on Quarterback does not set teams back for years anymore. And if the Bills are spending extra picks they have this year rather than their 2019 picks then the most they are risking is a 1 or 2 year setback with a wrong choice. 

Someone else just quoted this and I wanted to talk about this.   It's a very good point.  

 

When you pick the wrong guy, whether as a draft choice or as a free agent, he sets you back three years, more or less.   Why?  Because you have to invest three years in him to know what you've got.   If he's the guy you want, you make him the starter and run with him.   It's only less if (1) he turns out to be a total bust or (2) somebody like Russell Wilson comes along and surprises everyone.    

 

If the guy you're investing in is drafted, if you're like the Bills and not sitting on a top pick, you have to give up several of your picks, usually a couple of firsts to move up, often three.   Giving up those picks means you have three holes someplace else for three to five years, and you have to fill them as well as you can.   If the guy you invest in is a free agent, it means you're using cap space, so you can't sign as many other free agents (or you have to lose some guys) as you ordinarily would.   

 

Bottom line, whichever way you go when you invest in a top QB, you're betting some of your short-term future on the guy.   

 

It's different if you're just taking a QB who's available with your pick.   That's what happened with Manuel.   In fact, the Bills traded down and picked up an extra pick.   So the Bills didn't invest a lot to get Manuel, and that's why they were able to be a .500 team even though Manuel didn't work out.   The problem with that route is that a guy you're taking with the 16th or 20th pick probably has about one chance in 8 or 10 to be what you need.   If he's not at the top of the draft he's a longshot.  

[26CornerBlitz]

We don't need Cousins. Nathan Peterman is the answer.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Someone else just quoted this and I wanted to talk about this.   It's a very good point.  

 

When you pick the wrong guy, whether as a draft choice or as a free agent, he sets you back three years, more or less.   Why?  Because you have to invest three years in him to know what you've got.   If he's the guy you want, you make him the starter and run with him.   It's only less if (1) he turns out to be a total bust or (2) somebody like Russell Wilson comes along and surprises everyone.    

 

If the guy you're investing in is drafted, if you're like the Bills and not sitting on a top pick, you have to give up several of your picks, usually a couple of firsts to move up, often three.   Giving up those picks means you have three holes someplace else for three to five years, and you have to fill them as well as you can.   If the guy you invest in is a free agent, it means you're using cap space, so you can't sign as many other free agents (or you have to lose some guys) as you ordinarily would.   

 

Bottom line, whichever way you go when you invest in a top QB, you're betting some of your short-term future on the guy.   

 

It's different if you're just taking a QB who's available with your pick.   That's what happened with Manuel.   In fact, the Bills traded down and picked up an extra pick.   So the Bills didn't invest a lot to get Manuel, and that's why they were able to be a .500 team even though Manuel didn't work out.   The problem with that route is that a guy you're taking with the 16th or 20th pick probably has about one chance in 8 or 10 to be what you need.   If he's not at the top of the draft he's a longshot.  

 

My argument though Shaw is you are only spending the extra picks you have accumulated you are not creating any extra holes. If the Bills spend a lot of 2019 capital on a trade up I would agree the length of time a bad decision can set you back is certainly a year or two longer. But if all they use is their extra ammunition in this draft then I don't buy the creating other holes argument. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Agree with this.

 

You are set back when you go all in on one guy and don't keep taking them which is what you saw with the Bills and EJ Manuel. The position is too valuable.

 

Cousins is iffy. Some games he looks great and some games he looks absolutely awful. I saw at least a couple games this year where Cousins was brutal. He'd be an upgrade for sure but at what cost? 

 

Even the best QBs lay turds some games.  Big Ben vs Jags 5 picks

 

Passing for >4000 yds in a season, completing passes in the mid-60%, throwing 2x as many TDs as INTs and throwing >7.5 AY/A would seem to put a pretty high floor on just how awful a guy can be, how often.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Their defense has been pretty much on the same level as the Bills.  Aside from that, Cousins isn't a great decision maker and he throws for big yards because of the offense he plays in with a high volume of pass attempts. 

 

Wash. does have a high number of attempts, but their league rank for pass yardage is consistently well ahead of their rank for pass attempts (e.g., 12 vs 18 this year, 2 vs 4 this year etc). 

 

The usual interpretation would be a pass attack more effective than average

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wash. does have a high number of attempts, but their league rank for pass yardage is consistently well ahead of their rank for pass attempts (e.g., 12 vs 18 this year, 2 vs 4 this year etc). 

 

The usual interpretation would be a pass attack more effective than average

 

Won't argue against any of that, but I maintain none of it translates into him being a franchise QB that I'd pay top dollar for. 

[oldmanfan]

Basically those who don't want him are saying there's a better option in the draft, right?  I don't really see one.  Darnold is inconsistent and throws picks.  Rosen injury and personality issues.  Mayfield size.  Jackson arm especially accuracy.  Rudolph has only played in a spread and also accuracy issues.

 

Rookies are about potential and at least 50% of these guys won't pan out.  Cousins has shown he can play at a pretty high level in the league.  He's not a Brady or Cousins, but the likelihood of anybguys getting drafted being so is minimal at best.

 

Don't let the hope of great stop the pursuit of good.

 

 

[FLFan]

If Cousins makes it to FA some team will end up criminally overpaying him.  I sincerely hope it is not the Bills.  The Redskins have tried to resign him for the past couple of years, but Cousins has elected not to.  While numbers have never come out, one could assume that the Skins were trying to get a deal that was reasonable, and allowed them some future flexibility.  They are not totally sold on him.

 

The fans of the Skins are ambivalent on Cousins.  Many hate him. He can put up some gaudy numbers, but rarely in big situations.  He will make some head scratching throws and decisions.  He does not demonstrate leadership.  He does not lift the play around him.  He is an average to above average NFL QB.  Perhaps better than Taylor, but not worth a franchise type deal.  I would much rather the Bills look for a player to draft and develop than go all in on Cousins.

 

Right now the situation in Washington is that the Skins have said they want to talk contract.  Cousins has said he will not discuss contract until after FA begins.  It seems like he would like to force their hand on another franchise tag.  I doubt the Skins tag him again at $34m, and I doubt they want to pay what he thinks he is worth either.  Should be interesting.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

The QB position is like a used Toyota.  You can keep the prices higher than other used cars because people will pay that because they are reliable vehicles.  

 

...must be why all of the terrorists drive Toyota pickups.............

[without a drought]

Over 13,000 yards, 81td's and 36int's over the last 3 seasons.

 

He made somewhere around $20mil in 2016 and $23mil in 2017.

 

No matter who signs him, it will be expensive.

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My argument though Shaw is you are only spending the extra picks you have accumulated you are not creating any extra holes. If the Bills spend a lot of 2019 capital on a trade up I would agree the length of time a bad decision can set you back is certainly a year or two longer. But if all they use is their extra ammunition in this draft then I don't buy the creating other holes argument. 

I didn't understand that's what you were saying, and it makes sense.     But it's sort of saying "look, I just found some money, I'll spend it something bright and shiny, because it's just extra money."   That is, you're saying the Bills have something, extra draft picks that they didn't expect to have, so it's okay to burn them to move.   I think it makes more sense just to look at what you have - draft picks - and ignore where they came from, just ask yourself what's the smartest thing to do with what I have?

 

What I have is five picks in the first three rounds, and if I'm smart with those picks (and the GM always assumes he'll be smart with them), I'll have four or five guys playing significant time in 2018.    So the question is do I want to trade three of those five guys to take a chance on a QB?    And the big problem is that I'm not going to get the best QB prospect, because someone at the top of the draft is going to take him before I can get to him.  So I'm giving up three good players to take a shot.   And I'll have cap room to sign some free agents to help fill holes. 

 

Or do I spend my cap space on Cousins, have a higher probability of getting a quality starting QB, keep those three guys I can draft, but have no cap room to sign free agents?   

 

Those are the two ways to go, and neither is obviously the right choice.  I like the Cousins choice because of the higher probability that you have a top 10 QB in 2018 and going forward.   The other way you MIGHT get a top 5 Qb, you might get a top 10 QB, you might get a bust, and in any case you probably don't have really QB play until 2019.   

 

As always, thanks for your comments.  

[Tcali]

cousins a horrible choice...yeah lets solidify our mediocrity

1 hour ago, MDFan said:

If Cousins makes it to FA some team will end up criminally overpaying him.  I sincerely hope it is not the Bills.  The Redskins have tried to resign him for the past couple of years, but Cousins has elected not to.  While numbers have never come out, one could assume that the Skins were trying to get a deal that was reasonable, and allowed them some future flexibility.  They are not totally sold on him.

 

The fans of the Skins are ambivalent on Cousins.  Many hate him. He can put up some gaudy numbers, but rarely in big situations.  He will make some head scratching throws and decisions.  He does not demonstrate leadership.  He does not lift the play around him.  He is an average to above average NFL QB.  Perhaps better than Taylor, but not worth a franchise type deal.  I would much rather the Bills look for a player to draft and develop than go all in on Cousins.

 

Right now the situation in Washington is that the Skins have said they want to talk contract.  Cousins has said he will not discuss contract until after FA begins.  It seems like he would like to force their hand on another franchise tag.  I doubt the Skins tag him again at $34m, and I doubt they want to pay what he thinks he is worth either.  Should be interesting.

what team would be stupid enough to sign a poor mans philip romo for megabucks??...oh yeah little danny and the redskins

[LA Grant]

On 1/13/2018 at 1:33 PM, Shaw66 said:

I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

 

I don't dislike this plan. I'm not so sure about devoting that much cap room to Cousins and I'm not so sold on him being the answer. Whereas he reminds you of Kelly, to me, he looks like Drew Bledsoe -- a guy who gets the stats & fantasy points, but doesn't know how to manage situations to get the wins.

 

BUT

 

I agree with your points throughout. I think going all in on drafting a QB is so much riskier, and it's far better to just keep drafting guys and play the odds. Meanwhile, with the amount of holes in our aging roster, using the picks we have (or trading down) makes FAR more sense to quickly re-load the roster.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by LA Grant

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't understand that's what you were saying, and it makes sense.     But it's sort of saying "look, I just found some money, I'll spend it something bright and shiny, because it's just extra money."   That is, you're saying the Bills have something, extra draft picks that they didn't expect to have, so it's okay to burn them to move.   I think it makes more sense just to look at what you have - draft picks - and ignore where they came from, just ask yourself what's the smartest thing to do with what I have?

 

What I have is five picks in the first three rounds, and if I'm smart with those picks (and the GM always assumes he'll be smart with them), I'll have four or five guys playing significant time in 2018.    So the question is do I want to trade three of those five guys to take a chance on a QB?    And the big problem is that I'm not going to get the best QB prospect, because someone at the top of the draft is going to take him before I can get to him.  So I'm giving up three good players to take a shot.   And I'll have cap room to sign some free agents to help fill holes. 

 

Or do I spend my cap space on Cousins, have a higher probability of getting a quality starting QB, keep those three guys I can draft, but have no cap room to sign free agents?   

 

Those are the two ways to go, and neither is obviously the right choice.  I like the Cousins choice because of the higher probability that you have a top 10 QB in 2018 and going forward.   The other way you MIGHT get a top 5 Qb, you might get a top 10 QB, you might get a bust, and in any case you probably don't have really QB play until 2019.   

 

As always, thanks for your comments.  

 

No worries.  I lean the other way... I think Cousins will cost too much for what he is (and won't come here in any event so this is all probably moot) and you are better with a rookie.  Even if that rookie's ceiling is Cousins you have cap space to do some things around him.  If you are going to spend extra draft picks on something nice and shiny in the NFL it better be a shot on a potential franchise Quarterback. 

[purple haze]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It's different if you're just taking a QB who's available with your pick.   That's what happened with Manuel.   In fact, the Bills traded down and picked up an extra pick.   So the Bills didn't invest a lot to get Manuel, and that's why they were able to be a .500 team even though Manuel didn't work out.   The problem with that route is that a guy you're taking with the 16th or 20th pick probably has about one chance in 8 or 10 to be what you need.   If he's not at the top of the draft he's a longshot.  

 

If he's at the top of the draft he is still a longshot.  Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, JaMarcus Russell, etc...   It is hard to play QB in the NFL no matter where a QB is drafted.

Edited January 15, 2018 by purple haze

[26CornerBlitz]

 

The question is about Keenum, but the same idea applies.  I happen to agree. 

[BFLO]

Cousins is on pace to beat all of Jim Kelly's career passing stats. Different eras and all that, but saying he doesn't have HOF potential is a little short sighted. He put up 10 QB numbers this year with no team around him.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, BFLO said:

Cousins is on pace to beat all of Jim Kelly's career passing stats. Different eras and all that, but saying he doesn't have HOF potential is a little short sighted. He put up 10 QB numbers this year with no team around him.

 

I'll say it. He doesn't at all. 

[Thurman#1]

On 1/14/2018 at 6:33 AM, Shaw66 said:

I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

 

 

I'd love it, personally.

 

I don't think it fits what little we know about the McDermott/Beane axis' way of doing things. They seem to come from the build through the draft and don't bring in very high priced FAs side of the argument.

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I'll say it. He doesn't at all. 

 

 

That's a little short-sighted.

 

Heh heh.

 

But it is. Too early to know either way. Some HOFers are obvious by the end of their sixth year. Others aren't. Look at Andrew Luck. It was obvious by the end of his third or fourth year he was  a Hall of Famer. Until it wasn't obvious. After six years you wouldn't have known it about Elway, who'd thrown 101 TDs and 96 INTS by then. But Marino looked like an HOFer even earlier.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Thurman#1

[aceman_16]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'd love it, personally.

 

I don't think it fits what little we know about the McDermott/Beane axis' way of doing things. They seem to come from the build through the draft and don't bring in very high priced FAs side of the argument.

I am mostly in agreement with you. I am torn because paying Cousins big money allows us to build through the draft. We wont need to possibly package 3+ premium players (via draft picks) for 1 possibly good one (QB).

[Starr Almighty]

4 years/ 100 mil go get it done 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

I am mostly in agreement with you. I am torn because paying Cousins big money allows us to build through the draft. We wont need to possibly package 3+ premium players (via draft picks) for 1 possibly good one (QB).

 

 

Being torn's a pretty reasonable response, IMHO. 

 

Getting Cousins would be about the only situation other than not believing anyone in this draft will be a franchise guy that would excuse not at least trying to get up to an early position and get one of the surer things.

 

2 hours ago, Starr Almighty said:

4 years/ 100 mil go get it done 

 

 

I'd love it, but I don't think he'd sign for that rate or that length of contract, though the rate is maybe pretty reasonable.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My argument though Shaw is you are only spending the extra picks you have accumulated you are not creating any extra holes. If the Bills spend a lot of 2019 capital on a trade up I would agree the length of time a bad decision can set you back is certainly a year or two longer. But if all they use is their extra ammunition in this draft then I don't buy the creating other holes argument. 

 

 

I disagree with that, Bill.

 

It's like the old saying that once you've won some money at the blackjack tables you can take a bunch of risks because you're playing with house money. Which is logically incorrect. Once something is owned by you, it's yours. That's not house money anymore. Your decision process should reflect the fact that it's your money and you can walk away now owning it.

 

Same with those extra picks. They're ours. If we don't use them on a QB they don't disappear, they can be used to fill any position on the team. In fact, we got them by creating holes on this team, particularly at WR, holes that are still there. We have serious needs on this team that could be addressed in the draft but won't be if we use those picks on a QB.

 

As I say, I don't think that's the new regime's method, though, so I expect them to try to get a QB through the draft instead, and to keep their FA spending low.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Thurman#1