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Shaw66

Why I Think the Smart Move is Pay to Get Cousins

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I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

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Its saying the same thing over and over..but with Cousins, it is all about how much you have to pay for him.

 

4 years and $70 million or less.  Wow, great move for the Bills, sign me up and use those top 4 picks to fill other holes.

 

5 years  $120 millon.....Eh....I think it is overpaying but it is the market rate I guess....OK with it.

 

7 years $180 million...no way.  

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9 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Mmmmm...fresh Cousins thread! 

 

Tasty.

 Better than a Tyrod is a top 10 qb thread.  

Shaw is not one to spew garbage so I believe it’s worth a read and should not be dismissed so easily.  

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4 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 Better than a Tyrod is a top 10 qb thread.  

Shaw is not one to spew garbage so I believe it’s worth a read and should not be dismissed so easily.  

 

That would zing a lot harder if there was a single tyrod is a top 10 qb thread.

 

Anyway--all well covered in all of the other Cousins threads

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24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

He’s going to sign the richest contract ever, think 150 over 5 years more if there is s bidding war. Are you ok with spending that? 

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13 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Its saying the same thing over and over..but with Cousins, it is all about how much you have to pay for him.

 

4 years and $70 million or less.  Wow, great move for the Bills, sign me up and use those top 4 picks to fill other holes.

 

5 years  $120 millon.....Eh....I think it is overpaying but it is the market rate I guess....OK with it.

 

7 years $180 million...no way.  

 

 

I think it is going to be about 140 million and I just don’t think he is worth it and the limited space it gives this team to make moves.

 

dont get me wrong, I think he is good...very good.  However, I don’t know if it will translate into being good for this team and once he’s signed, he’s signed, it’s over.  You better love him because you not only have to keep him for years you have to play him at that price and we are not SF or Minny, meaning we don’t have tons of cap space.

 

id take my chances on a top kid, or a later first round kid and Alex Smith and then sign some people.

Edited by dollars 2 donuts

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The problem with Cousins, in a nutshell, is he is the wrong balance of talent vs. price.

 

Too little of the first, too much of the latter.

 

If those factors were reversed, he'd be a great steal. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Its saying the same thing over and over..but with Cousins, it is all about how much you have to pay for him.

 

4 years and $70 million or less.  Wow, great move for the Bills, sign me up and use those top 4 picks to fill other holes.

 

5 years  $120 millon.....Eh....I think it is overpaying but it is the market rate I guess....OK with it.

 

7 years $180 million...no way.  

Well, it's all in the details.   You have to understand the market in the NFL, and I"m not sure any of us does.   Even 7 years $180 might be doable, depending on how much is guaranteed.   If you could get out after 5 and having paid $130 million, that's probably not too far out of the market.

 

Cousins is going to get overpaid.   The biggest free agent in the market almost always does.  I still don't mind having overpaid for Mario - that was the beginning of the change of culture in Buffalo.   He didn't play up the level of his contract, but big free agents rarely do.  

 

But QB is different.   Qb is the one position where if you don't have a top 10 guy, you're not going to compete.   That is, it doesn't pay to overpay for the best guy at any position, but it pays to overpay for a top 10 QB.   

 

So if the Bills get Cousins, there are going to be plenty of people saying the Bills overpaid.  His contract will be bigger than QBs who are better.   I don't think it matters.    It's the only position where, if you have the right guy, it doesn't matter if you've overpaid.  

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11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

That would zing a lot harder if there was a single tyrod is a top 10 qb thread.

 

Anyway--all well covered in all of the other Cousins threads

Not meant to be a zing WEO just commenting.    

 

Why does losing tyrod bother you that much?  

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3 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

He’s going to sign the richest contract ever, think 150 over 5 years more if there is s bidding war. Are you ok with spending that? 

Yes.

 

Look, I haven't watched the guy, and I don't know talent like NFL front office guys do, but if I'm right that he's a top 10 guy, then I'd pay that.   

 

You have to have a good QB.   Have to.   You can win with good young, underpaid guys all over the field.   The Pats do it, the Pack does it.   If you have a good system and good coaching, you get good young athletes to do their jobs, and you're fine.   You're fine, that is, as long as you have a good QB.  

 

I think Cousins is what people thought Flacco was, but they turned out to be wrong.   They thought Flacco was a solid to 10 guy but not a Hall of Famer.  Now, it turned out Flacco isn't that, but that's what they thought, and that's why the Ravens paid him.   I think Cousins is guy people thought Flacco was, and if he is, you're competing every year he's under center.   Some years he'll be better than others, but you won't be saying we need a change.  

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1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Cousins is guy people thought Flacco was, and if he is, you're competing every year he's under center.   Some years he'll be better than others, but you won't be saying we need a change.  

 

Except the 3 years he has been the Redskins starter they have won 9, 8 and 8. I was slow to come around on Cousins.... I think he is borderline top 10 but there is no evidence he raises his team up around him so far. 

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15 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

He’s going to sign the richest contract ever, think 150 over 5 years more if there is s bidding war. Are you ok with spending that? 

 

Yes I am ok spending that. QBS help soo much on a team. Would put us playoffs every year. Not lucky to get in and stuff.

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15 minutes ago, jr1 said:

would you make a starting pitcher with a 26-30-1 career record the highest paid player in MLB?

If he had a good ERA and his team couldn't score points I might.

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39 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

 

This is essentially the logic behind my top choice.  The unknown is how high other teams with more cap space are willing to bid.

 

I don't think it's going to be all about money for Cousins.  I think he wants to win, and he's gotten fed up with Washington team building and coaching.

So part of acquiring Cousins is going to be selling him on "The Process" for each team who wants him.

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except the 3 years he has been the Redskins starter they have won 9, 8 and 8. I was slow to come around on Cousins.... I think he is borderline top 10 but there is no evidence he raises his team up around him so far. 

 

Fair enough, but think of it this way.  On my QB draft thread, someone pointed out that by my criteria, ~half of the QB I sorted as "good" were not "Superbowl worthy" by his criteria.

I think that's the same thing as "raises the team" and the point is - the odds of finding a QB who 'raises his team up around him' are even lower than the odds of finding a QB who can just give us years of competent QB play - roughly 25% vs 50% in the first 5 picks of the draft, and perhaps 15% lower down.

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6 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Yes I am ok spending that. QBS help soo much on a team. Would put us playoffs every year. Not lucky to get in and stuff.

Then have 15 mill to sign our rookies and fill all our other holes?

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10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is essentially the logic behind my top choice.  The unknown is how high other teams with more cap space are willing to bid.

 

I don't think it's going to be all about money for Cousins.  I think he wants to win, and he's gotten fed up with Washington team building and coaching.

So part of acquiring Cousins is going to be selling him on "The Process" for each team who wants him.

 

Fair enough, but think of it this way.  On my QB draft thread, someone pointed out that by my criteria, ~half of the QB I sorted as "good" were not "Superbowl worthy" by his criteria.

I think that's the same thing as "raises the team" and the point is - the odds of finding a QB who 'raises his team up around him' are even lower than the odds of finding a QB who can just give us years of competent QB play - roughly 25% vs 50% in the first 5 picks of the draft, and perhaps 15% lower down.

We could keep Tyrod with the new OC.  (Shula) 

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6 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Then have 15 mill to sign our rookies and fill all our other holes?

 

Yes at this point. Bill's had soo many team wasted lots of talent with bad QB. I want the Bill's just go for it with Kirk Cousins,

 

Edited by Buffalo Bills Fan

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29 minutes ago, jr1 said:

would you make a starting pitcher with a 26-30-1 career record the highest paid player in MLB?

 

Um, in the NFL they do.  They did it with Kap, Luck, Stafford, Carr, Tannehill, etc.  QB's get grossly over paid all the time for being young or in prime with upside.  I dont agree with it, but its the way the NFL works right now.

 

And, can we all just stop the nonsense of pinning a the W/L record on the QB's...means nothing.  You all hate TT, and he was a playoff QB this year.  Dilfer won a SB.  

 

Drew Brees record the last 4 years:  32-33

Pretty sure Brees is one of the GOAT's too.

Edited by Alphadawg7
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