Why I Think the Smart Move is Pay to Get Cousins

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Doing that and picking the wrong guy would set this team back another decade.

 

No it wouldn't. We took a swing on a Quarterback in 2013 that didn't work out and after riding with him in his rookie year we have won 9, 8, 7 and 9 games the next 4 games.

 

Missing on Quarterback does not set teams back for years anymore. And if the Bills are spending extra picks they have this year rather than their 2019 picks then the most they are risking is a 1 or 2 year setback with a wrong choice. 

[Pbomb]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

All 3 are in much more immediate "win now" territory. The Jags is the best landing spot for a FA QB. The best defense in the league which is young and still improving, cap space to pay you and weapons in Robinson, Lee, Fournette etc. 

 

The Broncos and Cardinals I actually think are slightly over the hill but they think their window is still open and will do what they can to offer big $$s. 

Robinson is a fa, and they are gonna be running out of cap room real quick with all the big contracts they have. Only thing saving them this year is all the rollover cap space from last year.

[Pbomb]

11 hours ago, Process said:

Cousins is an average QB. Not even top 10 in the league. And he might become the highest paid player in league history. 

 

What is wrong with you people?

But you are ok with getting alex smith, paying him almost as much and giving up draft picks also

Every qb who signs the latest new contract is the highest paid player in league history

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Pbomb said:

But you are ok with getting alex smith, paying him almost as much and giving up draft picks also

Every qb who signs the latest new contract is the highest paid player in league history

 

I am not okay with giving up picks for Smith either by the way. 

 

I firmly believe it is time for the Bills to get off the pot and take a shot on a guy in a decent draft pool even it means spending draft capital to go up and take them. Neither the Eagles nor the Rams are regretting doing it and like Bills Vet said... not doing it just in case you choose wrong is the personnel equivalent of puting inside the opposition 35. 

[Scott7975]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No it wouldn't. We took a swing on a Quarterback in 2013 that didn't work out and after riding with him in his rookie year we have won 9, 8, 7 and 9 games the next 4 games.

 

Missing on Quarterback does not set teams back for years anymore. And if the Bills are spending extra picks they have this year rather than their 2019 picks then the most they are risking is a 1 or 2 year setback with a wrong choice. 

Yeah maybe not a decade but more than 1 or 2 years. The goal is to win a superbowl, not win 7, 8, 9 games  With the EJ pick they traded down.  In this case they would be trading up.  They would be spending likely a minimum of 3 first round picks plus an extra round or two.  They wont be moving on from that investment anytime soon. Also the players missed they could have drafted.  3 first round players plus another guy.  Its fine if the QB works out.  It is not fine if the QB is a bust.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Scott7975

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

Yeah maybe not a decade but more than 1 or 2 years.  With the EJ pick they traded down.  In this case they would be trading up.  They would be spending likely a minimum of 3 first round picks plus an extra round or two.  They wont be moving on from that investment anytime soon. Also the players missed they could have drafted.  3 first round players plus another guy.  Its fine if the QB works out.  It is not fine if the QB is a bust.

 

It would not take 3 firsts. They are not moving to 1 or 2 so nothing after that takes 3 firsts. If they give up a 2019 first then it could hurt them 3 to 4 years.

 

You don't shy away from going all out for a QB in the draft just in case you are wrong. That is a loser attitude. 

[26CornerBlitz]

I agree that it doesn't.  Identify and draft the right prospect in 2018. You then have a cost controlled QB that allows OBD to build up the rest of the team that has many needs.

 

 

[Beast]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Cousins is not signing for Buffalo. 

 

I’m not sold on Cousins but why wouldn’t he sign here?

 

This isn’t the Ralph Wilson led Bills anymore.

[Bring it]

14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

I agree with all of this. Listen to Cousins mic’d up games. He is a leader and a competitor! His teammates like playing with him and many players on other teams around the league recognize his ability! 

Plus it would keep Mcbeane here for a long time. Stability!!! What’s that?

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

I’m not sold on Cousins but why wouldn’t he sign here?

 

This isn’t the Ralph Wilson led Bills anymore.

 

Because I think there are bigger market teams who are in much more "win now" mode with older rosters and a major need at QB who will be willing to throw the $$s at him. He is going to get mega, mega money somewhere... and unless the Bills are willing to go even higher than that to convince him to come here then I see no chance he does. 

[Beast]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because I think there are bigger market teams who are in much more "win now" mode with older rosters and a major need at QB who will be willing to throw the $$s at him. He is going to get mega, mega money somewhere... and unless the Bills are willing to go even higher than that to convince him to come here then I see no chance he does. 

 

I can see the Pegula’s doing just that if Beane and McDermott want Cousins.

[Scott7975]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It would not take 3 firsts. They are not moving to 1 or 2 so nothing after that takes 3 firsts. If they give up a 2019 first then it could hurt them 3 to 4 years.

 

You don't shy away from going all out for a QB in the draft just in case you are wrong. That is a loser attitude. 

I think it will cost that much.  There will be competition for moving up this year IMO. A lot of teams need QBs.  Not going into the top 5 is wasted effort.  They likely are not getting the guy of their choice at that point.  We are towards the bottom of the draft.  Its going to cost picks.

 

I didn't say shy away from it.  They have to get a QB no matter what.  Either spend the picks on QB or spend the cash on QB.  If they spend the picks on QB they aren't building the team all that much.  If they spend the cash on QB then they might pass on a future HoFer.  Cousins isn't elite but he is a very good QB.  Franchise money worthy QB that would compete on a good team. Its a viable strategy.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Binghamton Beast said:

 

I can see the Pegula’s doing just that if Beane and McDermott want Cousins.

 

I am talking $30m a year.... it ain't happeneing. 

[Beast]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I am talking $30m a year.... it ain't happeneing. 

 

To say it won’t happen because of money shows ignorance. If McDermott and Beane want Cousins, the Pegula’s will pay what they need to.

 

That doesn’t mean Cousins will come here but if the Bills decide to pursue him they won’t be scared off by the price tag.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

I think it will cost that much.  There will be competition for moving up this year IMO. A lot of teams need QBs.  Not going into the top 5 is wasted effort.  They likely are not getting the guy of their choice at that point.  We are towards the bottom of the draft.  Its going to cost picks.

 

I didn't say shy away from it.  They have to get a QB no matter what.  Either spend the picks on QB or spend the cash on QB.  If they spend the picks on QB they aren't building the team all that much.  If they spend the cash on QB then they might pass on a future HoFer.  Cousins isn't elite but he is a very good QB.  Franchise money worthy QB that would compete on a good team. Its a viable strategy.

 

Getting into the top 5 is not costing 3 firsts unless you want to get into the top 2. It just isn't. The Rams went from 15 to 1 two years ago for two firsts, two seconds, and some late round picks / pick swaps. I accept this year the price is different.... but it is not THAT much different that it would cost 3 firsts to get to number 3. Ain't happening. 

 

As for Cousins being a viable strategy.... only if he is willing to choose here ahead of his other options and I see no good reason why he would. I think it is the wrong strategy in any event. 

5 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

To say it won’t happen because of money shows ignorance. If McDermott and Beane want Cousins, the Pegula’s will pay what they need to.

 

That doesn’t mean Cousins will come here but if the Bills decide to pursue him they won’t be scared off by the price tag.

 

It is not ignorance it is realism. The Bills are not going to commit that kind of money to it. They just aren't. They would have to blow a Denver for example our of the water to make him choose here over there. 

[Buddo]

I think there are alternatives out there as FAs to Cousins.

 

What I don't see, is using a boatload of draft capital, to get a guy who you aren't sold on.

 

Make no mistake, moving up in this draft for any QB, is going to be expensive, because there are plenty of teams who will want to.

 

If we had a better position to pick from, it wouldn't be quite so bad, but we will almost certainly have to pony up an extra pick or two, if we were to try and move up, as the value of the picks we can offer, has been reduced by making the playoffs.

 

This team has a lot of holes still to fill, and 4 picks in the first couple of rounds, could go an awful long way to plugging them, and with talent.

 

I wouldn't rule out picking a QB early, but not for anything other than a couple of picks, if we decided to move up. And not just for the sake of taking one, either.

 

I'm not against going all in for a QB in a draft, I just think that you put other things in place before you do so.

[Coach Tuesday]

14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Look, I haven't watched the guy

 

Uh...

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because I think there are bigger market teams who are in much more "win now" mode with older rosters and a major need at QB who will be willing to throw the $$s at him. He is going to get mega, mega money somewhere... and unless the Bills are willing to go even higher than that to convince him to come here then I see no chance he does. 

 

Denver is going to sign him for serious coin.  Good for them; even better for us.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Denver is going to sign him for serious coin.  Good for them; even better for us.

 

Agree totally. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

10 minutes ago, Buddo said:

I think there are alternatives out there as FAs to Cousins.

 

What I don't see, is using a boatload of draft capital, to get a guy who you aren't sold on.

 

Make no mistake, moving up in this draft for any QB, is going to be expensive, because there are plenty of teams who will want to.

 

If we had a better position to pick from, it wouldn't be quite so bad, but we will almost certainly have to pony up an extra pick or two, if we were to try and move up, as the value of the picks we can offer, has been reduced by making the playoffs.

 

This team has a lot of holes still to fill, and 4 picks in the first couple of rounds, could go an awful long way to plugging them, and with talent.

 

I wouldn't rule out picking a QB early, but not for anything other than a couple of picks, if we decided to move up. And not just for the sake of taking one, either.

 

I'm not against going all in for a QB in a draft, I just think that you put other things in place before you do so.

 

.....well stated...never have been a fan of Cousins nor am I a fan of investing major draft capital and/or cash in one guy especially for mediocrity.....more inclined to find a vet (Alex Smith, Stanton, etc) for two years while our 1st round QB draft pick (Rudolph?)and Peterman develop.......leaves significant draft capital and cap dollars  to fill multiple needs for the long haul (OL/DL or DL/OL, LB, RB, etc).........

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

10 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Yes. Let's just go get Cousins.  He'll have no say in the matter.  Goodell will mandate that he comes to OBD. 

Just give him more money then anyone else. That should help.

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Just give him more money then anyone else. That should help.

 

I would not tie up that much money in him as I don't believe he's a franchise QB. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I would not tie up that much money in him as I don't believe he's a franchise QB. 

 

...correct on BOTH accounts IMO..............

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I would not tie up that much money in him as I don't believe he's a franchise QB. 

Well, I do. We never have a good QB. Paying one, would be a good problem to have at some point. This guy would probably be the second best qb in franchise history (if he keeps up his current play). It’s our best shot at getting to the Steelers and patriots level.

[26CornerBlitz]

14 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Well, I do. We never have a good QB. Paying one, would be a good problem to have at some point. This guy would probably be the second best qb in franchise history (if he keeps up his current play). It’s our best shot at getting to the Steelers and patriots level.

 

If he's a franchise QB, then why hasn't he lifted Washington into a perennial power in the NFC?  They have won the exact same number of games as the Bills in the last three seasons with the same number of playoff appearances. 

[bmur66]

I agree 100% with the OP. I think it comes down to where does Kirk Cousins want to play? (assuming he is not tagged again). I believe he wants to be a winner and will take more than just $ into account. He is going to get paid without a doubt. Buffalo is trending upward and is now known as a playoff team without a quarterback. The Bills could be very attractive to him. Look at the other teams that need quarterbacks. What team is in better position than Buffalo? I think he would be a great fit and he would be The Man from the second he puts down the pen.

This would definitely be my Plan A. Hopefully they got rid of the dumb butt that did MD's contract. They need an out after 3 years if he is not performing.

Edited January 14, 2018 by bmur66

[Magox]

I think there are probably only about 10-12 Franchise QB's and Cousins is in that group.  He's a bottom-tiered Franchise QB but he does make his offensive players around him better.   The Skins were decimated with injuries this year, their offensive line went through a multitude of injuries, arguably this was his best year yet.  He's also a fiery competitor.

 

Having said that, reading in between the lines of what Beane had said, I don't think we will be in the running to pay him what he'll get which is probably going to be in the $25-$28 Million a year range.    I would love to have Cousins, but I don't see it happening.

 

My fall back option would either trade up for one of the QB's if they absolutely love whichever QB prospect that is 

 

OR

 

Trade for Alex, probably would have to give up a 2nd and a 3rd and hope that another QB they like falls to them in the draft like a Mason Rudolph.   That way you still have another 1st and a 2nd to continue building.   

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

29 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

If he's a franchise QB, then why hasn't he lifted Washington into a perennial power in the NFC?  They have won the exact same number of games as the Bills in the last three seasons with the same number of playoff appearances. 

Because it takes more then 1 player to win. Which alot if people can’t seem to comprehend. Just because you have a good QB, doesn’t mean you are going to be a top tier team. We already have the solid support cast. We just need the qb now. Phillip Rivers? Eli Manning? Joe Flacco? Derrick Carr? Andrew Luck? Matt Stanford? All of these guys are considered good or great by most people. In the last few years they have about as many playoff wins combined as we do. You need more then just a QB.

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Because it takes more then 1 player to win. Which alot if people can’t seem to comprehend. Just because you have a good QB, doesn’t mean you are going to be a top tier team. We already have the solid support cast. We just need the qb now. Phillip Rivers? Eli Manning? Joe Flacco? Derrick Carr? Andrew Luck? Matt Stanford? All of these guys are considered good or great by most people. In the last few years they have about as many playoff wins combined as we do. You need more then just a QB.

 

Washington has surrounded Cousins with weapons to pump up his stats in the last three seasons, but IMO he's not that difference maker that will lead a team to a championship.  I maintain he's not worth the money it'll take to acquire him and I'd rather draft and develop a QB. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Washington has surrounded Cousins with weapons to pump up his stats in the last three seasons, but IMO he's not that difference maker that will lead a team to a championship.  I maintain he's not worth the money it'll take to acquire him and I'd rather draft and develop a QB. 

They got rid of all his recievers and they havent had a good running back in years. The surrounding cast in Washington is about as bare as any team in the NFC. They have very little tallent. He also puts up incredible numbers regardless. The guy is good. He is very good. He would be worth the money.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

If they can get him here I am all for it. Cousins isn't elite level but I believe he is top third level.  We have a ton of picks and if the GM is any good they can surround him with good young players.  Shore up the oline, get a speedy receiver, and get a good pass rusher in here this team should be able to compete.

Spending 25+ mil on a QB is less hindering to a team then spending a crap load of top draft picks to get one of those QBs that may or may not work out.  If we were picking at the top of the draft, I might agree with you.  The Bills would have to spend a kings ransom to get to the top of the draft this year.  Doing that and picking the wrong guy would set this team back another decade.

 

A team can get over the cap expenditures.  It can not get past wasting a ton of draft picks.

This is a good statement of why it makes sense.  It's a question of the probability of getting a qb who is good enough and the cost if you're  wrong.  

 

With Cousins there's a pretty good probability that he's good enough and the cost if you're  wrong is manageable over about four years.  

 

In the draft, the probability is low if unless you trade way up, and even then it's a crap shoot.  And the cost of trading up and getting the wrong guy is really high,  because you've lost maybe three first round picks, which are worth three quality starters cheap. 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

They got rid of all his recievers and they havent had a good running back in years. The surrounding cast in Washington is about as bare as any team in the NFC. They have very little tallent. He also puts up incredible numbers regardless. The guy is good. He is very good. He would be worth the money.

 

They have good talent that was injured this season.  His numbers this year reflect an offensive imbalance due with no running game. So what. His numbers don't translate to winning football and especially not in big spots with games on the line.  Based on what I've heard from Beane, I don't believe the Bills will shell out big money to a free agent QB and especially one who's not on the Franchise level. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

They got rid of all his recievers and they havent had a good running back in years. The surrounding cast in Washington is about as bare as any team in the NFC. They have very little tallent. He also puts up incredible numbers regardless. The guy is good. He is very good. He would be worth the money.

— Again not a huge Cousins fan —

The Skins FO let two 1000 yard receivers and their top (aging) RB Go this season.  

Their defense isn’t the best either. 

 

Given a choice of Taylor @ $18 mil or Cousins @ $22 to 25 mil I think the answer would be obvious.  

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

To say it won’t happen because of money shows ignorance. If McDermott and Beane want Cousins, the Pegula’s will pay what they need to.

 

That doesn’t mean Cousins will come here but if the Bills decide to pursue him they won’t be scared off by the price tag.

Right. And I'm saying I'm not afraid of the price tag. 

[Nineforty]

I would lose all faith in the process if they sign Cousins. 

 

[Charlottebillsfan2]

With Cousins on this team we have a legitimate shot to win the division and go deep in the playoffs. You pay him whatever he wants.  He is the best fa qb to potentially hit the market in how long?

 

bottom line he is a top 10 qb in the league. He has thrown for over 4000 yards three years in a row. He will be better than any rookie qb next year.  This is a golden opportunity for this team to upgrade the only position that really matters. Get it done

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

7 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

— Again not a huge Cousins fan —

The Skins FO let two 1000 yard receivers and their top (aging) RB Go this season.  

Their defense isn’t the best either. 

 

Given a choice of Taylor @ $18 mil or Cousins @ $22 to 25 mil I think the answer would be obvious.  

 

Yeah they replaced his good recievers with a fools money bust in Prior. The guy has almost no help. I don’t know what 26 is talking about. Talent wasn’t hurt, it was just on other teams.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Yeah they replaced his good recievers with a fools money bust in Prior. The guy has almost no help. I don’t know what 26 is talking about. Talent wasn’t hurt, it was just on other teams.

 

His top target Jordan Reed says hello.  LT Trent Williams says hello. I could go on. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Yeah they replaced his good recievers with a fools money bust in Prior. The guy has almost no help. I don’t know what 26 is talking about. Talent wasn’t hurt, it was just on other teams.

Sometimes a lot of people don’t know what he is talking about.  

 

This season there were a lot of injuries and they took the Saints to the wire in N’Awlins when “his” guy couldn’t manage any offense at all.  

[PromoTheRobot]

Simple question: if Cousins is so amazing, why a) do the Redskins suck, and b) why are they so willing to let him walk?

6 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Yeah they replaced his good recievers with a fools money bust in Prior. The guy has almost no help. I don’t know what 26 is talking about. Talent wasn’t hurt, it was just on other teams.

 

Oh so the excuse Tyrod can't use, Cousins can?

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

His top target Jordan Reed says hello.  LT Trent Williams says hello. I could go on. 

Both were injured for most of the year.