Bills trade #10 for #27, a 3rd, and 2018 1st

[NoSaint]

We have no idea yet what next year's QB class will look like. Guys can easily stay in school or have down years. It can easily turn into a very mediocre class of QBs. Then next year people will be saying to wait until 2019 to draft a guy.

We'd really regret having two first rounders then! Can you imagine the horror?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

We'd really regret having two first rounders then! Can you imagine the horror?

 

....avoid the "horror"....trade 'em both for a 2017 5th..............

[TPS]

Heading left soon.

I knew it!

[quinnearlysghost88]

i've waiting a whole year for our picks from last year to start, so i can be patient for a QB next year.

[MAJBobby]

http://www.footballperspective.com/analyzing-the-trades-in-the-first-round-of-the-2017-draft/

 

2)

Bills trade: 10th overall

Chiefs trade: 27th overall, 91st overall, 2018 1st

 

The Chiefs moved up 17 spots to draft Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs could use a quarterback of the future, of course after all, its now been 30 years since Kansas City won a game with a quarterback drafted by the team. But if you value that 2018 1st round as equal to say, the 24th overall selection, that means the Bills received a whopping 170 cents on the dollar on the FP draft value chart. Even on the traditional chart, its still a great trade: Buffalo gets 120 cents on the dollar. And the Chiefs 2018 1st round pick could obviously be better than 24, too.

 

This was a great trade for the Bills, who were on the opposite end of this sort of move 13 years ago. In 2004, Buffalo traded 43, 144, and a 2005 1st to move up from 43 to 22 to draft J.P. Losman. Now, the Bills move down 17 spots and grab a future first and a third. As for Kansas City? The only way this works, of course, is if Mahomes becomes a star. The Chiefs are using two firsts and a third on him, which means he needs to be more than just average.

Edited April 28, 2017 by MAJBobby

[boco357]

I'm going to hate myself for being a Patriot fan week 1.

[26CornerBlitz]

@sn_nfl

Bills set up to win 2017, '18 NFL Drafts after trading down with Chiefs http://dlvr.it/P0zsJ1

[GG]

Here's another way: the Chiefs, who have a far better record than the Bills over the last decade, were willing to spend four picks to ensure themselves a succession plan at the most important position. The Chiefs now have an established, experienced starter and a high-ceiling prospect to groom at the QB position. The Bills have a low-upside starter, TJ Yates, and Cardale Jones. But hey, at least we beat them in trade value points.

 

Premature speculation before the Bills finish the 2017 & 2018 drafts?

[Bangarang]

We'd really regret having two first rounders then! Can you imagine the horror?

That's not what I'm saying. Obviously having an extra 1st is good for us. The issue was always going to come down to whether any of these we had a chance to take end up being really good. And we can't just assume next year's QB class is going to be great and we're going to trade up for one of the great prospects. Seems silly to assume such a thing.

[PromoTheRobot]

Here's another way: the Chiefs, who have a far better record than the Bills over the last decade, were willing to spend four picks to ensure themselves a succession plan at the most important position. The Chiefs now have an established, experienced starter and a high-ceiling prospect to groom at the QB position. The Bills have a low-upside starter, TJ Yates, and Cardale Jones. But hey, at least we beat them in trade value points.

The Bills have a high character starting CB, an extra pick in the top 100, and another 1st round pick in next year's draft, the one with better QBs.

 

The Chiefs got a project.

That's not what I'm saying. Obviously having an extra 1st is good for us. The issue was always going to come down to whether any of these we had a chance to take end up being really good. And we can't just assume next year's QB class is going to be great and we're going to trade up for one of the great prospects. Seems silly to assume such a thing.

When QB Fever season hits next year, you'll be happy to have that extra 1st.

[CNY315]

From NFL.com AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Draft picks: Tre'Davious White (No. 27 overall)

Day 1 grade: A

The skinny: Instead of taking Patrick Mahomes as the quarterback of the future, they moved down 17 spots, allowing Kansas City to make the pick. They received a third-round pick this year and a future first-rounder for the move down. Buffalo selected a good corner in White with the 27th pick to take over for Stephon Gilmore, meeting a dire need. Well done.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Thanks Doug Whaley.

 

@ChrisBurke_SI

Whoever is pulling the trigger for the Bills did nice work last night. Surprised they traded back w/ Lattimore/Howard there, but it worked.

 

[NoSaint]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="CNY315" data-cid="4351379" data-time="1493387888"><p><p>From NFL.com AFC East Buffalo Bills Draft picks: i wonder if whaley gets enough love if it will get him through this season

[bills7834]

I don't care what anybody says this was a terrible trade a late first-round pick next year and a late 3rd round pick this year for the number 10 spot insane

Don't forget the 27th pick this year.

[26CornerBlitz]

@mikerodak

By one trade value chart, Chiefs paid the Bills as if they had the No. 1 pick. "Enormous haul," says @billbarnwell.

https://t.co/UOewukbFs1

[mikemac2001]

Don't forget the 27th pick this year.

They don't understand

 

We got 3 picks

Chiefs fo got 1

 

Or

 

We moved down 17 spots for a 3rd and a first

 

It's not we gave up a pick for a first next year and 3rd this year

[dave mcbride]

No one here (myself included) has an effing clue about how good Mahomes is going to be, and those who are claiming that they do know are full of it. Let's wait and see how this plays out.

[TOboy]

No one here (myself included) has an effing clue about how good Mahomes is going to be, and those who are claiming that they do know are full of it. Let's wait and see how this plays out.

 

Although I agree completely, I'm far less high on Mahomes than I was before hearing that irish draft expert WGR the other day. The guy came across very knowledgeable, and completely obliterated Mahomes suggesting there are just too many issues with his footwork and throwing mechanics to pan out.

 

Again, you're right, none of us know for sure. I'm just glad the Bills aren't the team that heavily invested in him.

[dave mcbride]

 

Although I agree completely, I'm far less high on Mahomes than I was before hearing that irish draft expert WGR the other day. The guy came across very knowledgeable, and completely obliterated Mahomes suggesting there are just too many issues with his footwork and throwing mechanics to pan out.

 

Again, you're right, none of us know for sure. I'm just glad the Bills aren't the team that heavily invested in him.

The KC franchise has actually-employed-by-an-NFL-team draft experts who will tell us otherwise. Who the hell knows? It's going to take time to shake out.

[TOboy]

The KC franchise has actually-employed-by-an-NFL-team draft experts who will tell us otherwise. Who the hell knows? It's going to take time to shake out.

 

You're absolutely right! But those guys make mistakes all the time, us Bills fans are painfully aware of that.

 

Time will tell.

[1B4IDie]

Here's another way: the Chiefs, who have a far better record than the Bills over the last decade, were willing to spend four picks to ensure themselves a succession plan at the most important position. The Chiefs now have an established, experienced starter and a high-ceiling prospect to groom at the QB position. The Bills have a low-upside starter, TJ Yates, and Cardale Jones. But hey, at least we beat them in trade value points.

We also lost the trade value points too. So we didn't even get that.

[DrDawkinstein]

We also lost the trade value points too. So we didn't even get that.

 

Not true at all, and has been shown here many times.

[26CornerBlitz]

@mikerodak

By one trade value chart, Chiefs paid the Bills as if they had the No. 1 pick. "Enormous haul," says @billbarnwell.

https://t.co/UOewukbFs1

 

We also lost the trade value points too. So we didn't even get that.

 

Did they (we)?

@Jason_OTC

49ers and Seahawks both made out great with yesterdays trades: http://overthecap.com/valuing-draft-day-trades

 

Trade 2: Kansas City/Buffalo

Winner: Bills acquired $7.9M in net value

Kansas City trades the 27^th and 91^st picks this year plus next years first rounder to grab the 10^th overall pick from the Bills. A lot of the value here is contingent on where this pick is next season. For the time being since the Chiefs were a playoff team I valued it as the 21^st pick in the draft. If they end up like the Vikings and drop out of the playoffs this trade moves even more in the Bills favor.

 

[MPT]

That is a spectacular post you got there budy. Really amazing logic.

Thanks. Wasn't sure if you'd be able to follow.

 

You and the Bears GM can justify that trade based on the chart, but the actual value favors the 49ers immensely. They gave up literally nothing and got several high picks in return. Your infallible, all-knowing chart does not apply in every situation, alas.

[MPT]

We have no idea yet what next year's QB class will look like. Guys can easily stay in school or have down years. It can easily turn into a very mediocre class of QBs. Then next year people will be saying to wait until 2019 to draft a guy.

I've seen this argument a lot, and I certainly respect the hazards of attempting to predict future NFL drafts.

 

However, this year's QB draft class was predicted to be weak since before last year's draft and those predictions turned out to be mostly accurate. The difference between the opinions of the next year's QB draft class for 2017 and 2018, when each were still a year beyond, are so drastic that I can't help but be hopeful about next year's class.

[1B4IDie]

Thanks. Wasn't sure if you'd be able to follow.

 

You and the Bears GM can justify that trade based on the chart, but the actual value favors the 49ers immensely. They gave up literally nothing and got several high picks in return. Your infallible, all-knowing chart does not apply in every situation, alas.

Infallible? Now not only are you making a scarecrow argument, you're inventing new nonsense words.

 

The numbers on the chart don't matter. Real NFL GMs use the chart to determine relative value.

 

The actual value is irrelevant. The Delta in the value from one pick to the next is important.

 

The reason why actual NFL GMs still use the chart today is so that you and the other GM can agree on the relative value of the draft picks.

 

It is not "infallible" it is a guideline.

In some cases, for example when there are multiple suitors for a pick the trade may be closer to the guideline like with the Bears.

 

In other cases when a GM is on the Hot Seat and the new HC is involved with a trade with their mentor they may decrease the relative value of the draft picks in order to get a deal done and look like they're doing something.

 

The Bills did not get enough in return on allowing the Chiefs to move up 17 spots as compared to the history of actual NFL trades made by actual NFL GMs.

Edited April 28, 2017 by 1B4IDie

[Bangarang]

I've seen this argument a lot, and I certainly respect the hazards of attempting to predict future NFL drafts.

 

However, this year's QB draft class was predicted to be weak since before last year's draft and those predictions turned out to be mostly accurate. The difference between the opinions of the next year's QB draft class for 2017 and 2018, when each were still a year beyond, are so drastic that I can't help but be hopeful about next year's class.

Cautious optimism is all I'm saying. If next year's class is strong then let's sell the farm for a guy. We won't know how it is for a while though.

[1B4IDie]

 

Not true at all, and has been shown here many times.

I've shown many times that it is true.

 

You would need to remove any standard discount on future picks in order for the numbers to work. Which shows the Bills didn't value their #10 in alignment with historical NFL trades by actual NFL GMs.

 

They gave Andy Reid a deal he couldn't refuse and the Bills didn't get as much in return as other GMs get in return for their draft picks.

[dave mcbride]

 

 

Did they (we)?

 

 

I do; i think 1B4IDie is basically right. But I discount future picks. Not everyone does. To each his own.

[HappyDays]

You can't complain the Bills didn't take a QB yesterday in what was known to be a weak class, and then also complain that next year's class could end up being Week. Be honest with yourself, no matter what the experts are saying you'll convince yourself that a QB next year is worthy of a 1st round pick.

[Chuck Wagon]

 

 

Did they (we)?

@Jason_OTC

49ers and Seahawks both made out great with yesterdays trades: http://overthecap.com/valuing-draft-day-trades

 

 

 

 

"This is an interesting trade for the Chiefs because they currently have a very expensive roster and the only thing that does not make this entirely lopsided in the Bills favor is that by dumping a first rounder next year the Chiefs save themselves somewhere in the ballpark of $11M in guaranteed salary. So in theory they are saving money that can either help them retain current players or sign someone in free agency. For a “win now” kind of team there can be some merit in that. KC has to remain a playoff team to justify that logic."

 

 

What a moron. I'll gladly take all the 1st round picks from teams close to the salary cap and help them out. I'd give them a 7th round pick back, but I wouldn't want to further muck up their salary cap.

[Cash]

As our pick at #10 was coming up, I was telling my wife that I expected the Bills to take Lattimore and that I wouldn't be very enthused about that. I was psyched when the team icon at #10 flipped to KC - I've been pulling for a trade down all along. Given the Bills roster, I wanted either a potential/likely superstar at any position or a trade down. I'm no draft expert, but I didn't think anyone at 10 fit that no-brainer/blue-chipper mold - to me, there's usually about 5-6 of them in a given draft - so I was hoping for the trade down. I was actually hoping for 2 trades down - one to the teens for a #2 and then maybe another to the 2nd round for a first next year. I'm very happy with what we got, especially if KC falls on their face next year. I basically don't think future firsts should ever be given up for pretty much anyone.

 

In terms of draft value, we definitely won this trade. Of course, if the QB becomes a star, KC will have won the trade big-time. But no one, including KC, can for sure say that he'll be a star. Even if he does, I'm happy that we at least got better value. Think of it as selling a $1 scratch-off for $10. You would do that every time you bought a scratch-off if you could, but some of the times the scratch-off will hit for $100 and you'll feel like an ass. But it doesn't mean you were dumb to sell it for $10 in the first place.

 

One last thing - the "discount future picks by a round" thing drives me crazy. Coaches/GMs do that for 2 reasons: 1.) They can never be 100% certain they'll be around to make future picks, so those inherently have less value to them, and 2.) That's how everyone else does it, and most NFL people haven't had an original thought since kindergarten. But as fans, we have much higher job security - unless the team moves or I die, I can guarantee that I'll still be a fan in 2018. The chances of the team moving by then are remote, and if I die, I won't really care about the Bills one way or another. So there's no reason for a fan (or an owner!) to discount the value of a future pick. When next year rolls around, that first-rounder will fall in the first round, not the second. Draft picks aren't subject to inflation the way money is. I like to think of it this way: would you rather have:

 

A.) First round picks in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, or

 

B.) Second round picks in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

 

No one in their right mind would ever trade A for B, and just about anyone would trade B for A.

[Figster]

Infallible? Now not only are you making a scarecrow argument, you're inventing new nonsense words.

 

The numbers on the chart don't matter. Real NFL GMs use the chart to determine relative value.

 

The actual value is irrelevant. The Delta in the value from one pick to the next is important.

 

The reason why actual NFL GMs still use the chart today is so that you and the other GM can agree on the relative value of the draft picks.

 

It is not "infallible" it is a guideline.

In some cases, for example when there are multiple suitors for a pick the trade may be closer to the guideline like with the Bears.

 

In other cases when a GM is on the Hot Seat and the new HC is involved with a trade with their mentor they may decrease the relative value of the draft picks in order to get a deal done and look like they're doing something.

 

The Bills did not get enough in return on allowing the Chiefs to move up 17 spots as compared to the history of actual NFL trades made by actual NFL GMs.

thanks for this post

 

Very much appreciated

[CountDorkula]

 

 

Did they (we)?

@Jason_OTC

49ers and Seahawks both made out great with yesterdays trades: http://overthecap.com/valuing-draft-day-trades

 

 

If Mahomes turns out to be a stud, do we still "win" the trade because of a completely fabricated point system?

[26CornerBlitz]

If Mahomes turns out to be a stud, do we still "win" the trade because of a completely fabricated point system?

 

It depends on what the Bills do with the acquired picks.

[Big C]

If Mahomes turns out to be a stud, do we still "win" the trade because of a completely fabricated point system?

 

Trades can be mutually beneficial.

[Chuck Wagon]

If Mahomes turns out to be a stud, do we still "win" the trade because of a completely fabricated point system?

 

 

If we have a QB of our own, it's no big deal. If we don't then he'll replace the "We could have drafted Aaron Rodgers" narrative.

 

It depends on what the Bills do with the acquired picks.

 

 

If he's a franchise QB and we still don't have one, what we do with the picks is entirely irrelevant. Anyone without a QB would trade a pro bowl corner and 2 other good players for a franchise QB.

[TOboy]

Thanks. Wasn't sure if you'd be able to follow.

 

You and the Bears GM can justify that trade based on the chart, but the actual value favors the 49ers immensely. They gave up literally nothing and got several high picks in return. Your infallible, all-knowing chart does not apply in every situation, alas.

 

I agree that it looked like a lot to pay to move up one spot, especially when the 49ers presumably had no interest in picking a QB.

 

However, I believe what the Bears paid for was the right to block another team jumping up and taking the 2nd spot and drafting Trubisky. SF was likely taking offers on that pick, and the Bears knew if they didn't pay up, the spot would go to someone else looking for the QB.

[CountDorkula]

 

I agree that it looked like a lot to pay to move up one spot, especially when the 49ers presumably had no interest in picking a QB.

 

However, I believe what the Bears paid for was the right to block another team jumping up and taking the 2nd spot and drafting Trubisky. SF was likely taking offers on that pick, and the Bears knew if they didn't pay up, the spot would go to someone else looking for the QB.

And If Trubisky turns out to be good, none of this matters. This made up point system does not matter. The Bears Win the 49ers lose and look like fools for passing up on the most important position. But hey at least they got more picks.

 

 

If we have a QB of our own, it's no big deal. If we don't then he'll replace the "We could have drafted Aaron Rodgers" narrative.

 

 

If he's a franchise QB and we still don't have one, what we do with the picks is entirely irrelevant. Anyone without a QB would trade a pro bowl corner and 2 other good players for a franchise QB.

This so much this.

[NoSaint]

 

It depends on what the Bills do with the acquired picks.

there would be little, if anything, that we could do with the picks to beat getting a stud qb this year (unless we get one in the 3rd, i suppose)

 

thats not me endorsing mahomes -- just the hypothetical comparison down the line IF he was good