I hate to be that guy

[gr8billsfan]

Okay so Beat the steelers and win out from there. I would literally ask for Rex's head on a platter if we lose to Cleveland...

[dorquemada]

But if they somehow figure out a way to beat the Steelers (I know, I don't think they will either), their path to the playoffs is actually pretty favorable- especially after the Jets' performance last night. I know, I know, they're a bunch of bums, Tyrod Taylor sucks, Rex needs to go, we're in the same spot we're always in at this point in the season, etc., etc. Just saying, on paper, they figure out a way to beat the Steelers, going 10-6 is well within their means and after spending some time looking at it yesterday, 10-6 MUCH more than likely gets them in. Key game will be New England beating Denver for us. That happens and I'd put it at 90%. Now crucify me.

 

Bills can't beat a winning team, full stop

[TC in St. Louis]

Who do you think would win if the Bills played themselves?

[Chuck Wagon]

Who do you think would win if the Bills played themselves?

 

 

It would be the apocalypse. Our WRs can't get open but our DBs can't cover. Tyrod holds on to the ball too long but our front 7 can't get pressure. Oh the humanity.

[Indy Dave]

For those of you holding out hope...

 

Week 14: Bills beat Steelers, Pats beat Ravens, Titans beat Broncos

Week 15: Bills beat Browns, Pats beat Broncos, Chiefs beat Titans

Week 16: Bills beat Dolphins, Steelers beat Ravens, Chiefs beat Broncos

Week 17: Bills beat Jets

 

If all of those happen, and if the Dolphins don't beat the Cardinals, Patriots and Jets (in other words, just lose one of those three games), then we're in.

 

Other than the Bills beating the Steelers, many of those outcomes are realistic. So I think the intent of the original post was, just figure out a way to win Sunday and you can see a path to the playoffs.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

I want to be that guy too, then I woke up. My dream was really nice. The Ralph was rocking. (Can't get my heart to say New Era yet) The Bills were pumped and the defense came to play. Pressure was on Big Ben and Antonio Brown left the game after getting laid out by Lorax on a screen pass. Shady is running all kinds of crazy and Sammy is actually Sammy. Even Tyrod hits his deep throw and we go up 24-21 at the half.

 

Then I wake up and Big Ben torches us for 4 more scores and we lose 49-38. But at least my fantasy stats launched me into the playoffs.

Who do you think would win if the Bills played themselves?

The field would win as it takes at least 3 Bills to the IR.

[metzelaars_lives]

For those of you holding out hope...

 

Week 14: Bills beat Steelers, Pats beat Ravens, Titans beat Broncos

Week 15: Bills beat Browns, Pats beat Broncos, Chiefs beat Titans

Week 16: Bills beat Dolphins, Steelers beat Ravens, Chiefs beat Broncos

Week 17: Bills beat Jets

 

If all of those happen, and if the Dolphins don't beat the Cardinals, Patriots and Jets (in other words, just lose one of those three games), then we're in.

 

Other than the Bills beating the Steelers, many of those outcomes are realistic. So I think the intent of the original post was, just figure out a way to win Sunday and you can see a path to the playoffs.

They only need two losses from the Broncos, provided one of them is against either New England or Oakland. Plus, the Ravens could lose other games too. It isn't as exact as that. You are also including one specific Titans loss- the AFC South is not producing a SECOND 10-6 team so you don't have to worry about that. They all play each other.

 

It's pretty much this simple:

Broncos go 2-2 or worse (look at their schedule)

Dolphins lose 1 of 3 not including game against us

And then in the AFC North, the only thing that CAN'T happen is both teams finish 10-6 and Steelers win division. The odds of that happening are extremely remote.

 

Again, they win out, they would more than likely get in. And if they beat the Steelers, who thinks they can't win out?

Edited December 6, 2016 by metzelaars_lives

[Indy Dave]

They only need two losses from the Broncos, provided one of them is against either New England or Oakland. Plus, the Ravens could lose other games too. It isn't as exact as that. You are also including one specific Titans loss- the AFC South is not producing a SECOND 10-6 team so you don't have to worry about that. They all play each other.

Correct. I wasn't taking into consideration any tie-breakers. Just finishing with better records than Denver, Miami, Baltimore, etc.

[reddogblitz]

Not really if they Beat Steelers they are still only like 14% to make it to the playoffs. That is nothing close to favorable

Take those percentages and stuff 'em where the sun don't shine. What does this even mean? It's sure to be right though. If we get in, well we had a 14% chance. If no, then odds were against it anyway.

 

Do we really need some computer geek with a big computer to crunch the numbers to tell us it's a long shot for us go make playoffs? Thes percentages are so dumb IMHO. The world had gone stats/analytics mad.

 

Anyway, I expect the Bills to play well Sunday. After a humiliating loss, at home on front of a raucous crowd, for all the marbles, our guys will be ready. Not sure that will be good enough, but it also very well could be.

 

Go BILLS !!!

 

It's not over til it's over.

[metzelaars_lives]

 

Bills can't beat a winning team, full stop

I also don't think they're going to beat the Steelers.

[26TrapDraw]

I said before the Raiders game that was the one game we could kind of afford to lose. If we win out it'll be us / Miami / Denver in a 3 way battle for spot #6. Miami vs Arizona looms as a very big game this week as Miami has the Jets then the Pats in week 17, who knows what NE will have at stake. Baltimore beating Miami was needed, given the tiebreaker scenarios, we need Baltimore to win the division with us having H2H over Pittsburgh.

 

 

One thing is for sure, lose this week and we are DOA.

Tell me what makes you think with the putrid garbage we call a defense that we can beat the Steelers?

[PatsFanNH]

 

 

Obviously you haven't been a Patriots fan that long or maybe you forgoten the 56-10 beatdown the Patriot gave us on Sunday night football back in 2007. I think the cheaters had 40 points at halftime.

 

 

 

Exactly, if I was BB I would be routing for the Bills. He probably wouldn't even have to game plan that week & could concentrate on game planning for the Conference CHampionship the following week.

lol I was being a wise ass.. I was just trying say that since they had a 15 point lead they should have been able to do at least 2-3 stops before they were gassed.

 

As for BB I think he plays win every game, even that 16-0 game in week 4. (That poor tablet never saw it coming lol)

 

As a neutral fan I say if the Bills pull off the upset and beat the Steelers Sunday they will finish 10-6... and worse it will turn Bills fans into Patriot fans for a few weeks. (Like this Sunday, Denver game and perhaps the Dolphins game. I figure that may make a lot of you all I'll.) lol

[BmarvB]

But if they somehow figure out a way to beat the Steelers (I know, I don't think they will either), their path to the playoffs is actually pretty favorable- especially after the Jets' performance last night. I know, I know, they're a bunch of bums, Tyrod Taylor sucks, Rex needs to go, we're in the same spot we're always in at this point in the season, etc., etc. Just saying, on paper, they figure out a way to beat the Steelers, going 10-6 is well within their means and after spending some time looking at it yesterday, 10-6 MUCH more than likely gets them in. Key game will be New England beating Denver for us. That happens and I'd put it at 90%. Now crucify me.

 

10-6 is doable if they somehow manage to beat the Steelers. Just have to keep in mind we still have a winless team to face, and we are VERY capable of giving them their only win of the season.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I also don't think they're going to beat the Steelers.

 

Tell me what makes you think with the putrid garbage we call a defense that we can beat the Steelers?

 

I don't either - but i could see why people might. The Steelers have 3 road wins this year. 2 were against cleveland and the luck-less colts. The other was week 1. The 3 losses on the road - a smacking by philly 34-3, 200+ by ajayi and the dolphins, and a 21-14 loss to Baltimore.

 

At one point this year they lost 4 straight. In 4 of their 5 losses - they scored 16 or fewer points.

 

Also - the weather report for OP looks cold, with chance of snow/sleet/rain. This can affect precision on passing.

 

Again - i don't think we will win, but we certainly could win.

[ko12010]

It definitely isn't. All they need to do is beat Pittsburgh- in a game in which they are 2 point underdogs- and it's almost more than likely they make the playoffs.

Wow this is shocking. I honestly thought we needed 11-5 and help bc of our bad afc record. This is interesting.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Wow this is shocking. I honestly thought we needed 11-5 and help bc of our bad afc record. This is interesting.

 

Our AFC record cleans itself a bit if we win out. Our last 4 are all AFC games.

 

Everyone else loses some AFC games as well so it evens out.

Edited December 6, 2016 by dneveu

[MDH]

9-7, not good enough for the playoffs and not bad enough to fire people or get a good draft position. Another year in NFL purgatory!

 

Actually, 9-7 (with a loss to the Steelers) and the Bills can still get in...and it's not crazily farfetched. Nowhere near likely, but not some crazy scenario like we need the Jags or Browns to start beating people.

 

If the Pats win out, the Raiders win their last 3, the Chiefs win their last 3 and the Steelers beat the Ravens the Bills chances of getting into the playoffs with a 9-7 record, according to the NY Times Playoff Simulator (which is awesome btw) is 75%. That's only if the Bills 7th loss is to the Steelers.

 

The main thing they'd need after that is the Ravens losing again (either to the Eagles or Bengals). That happens and the Bills playoff chances are above 90%. If the Texans or Colts lose any other game the Bills are pretty much in.

 

So the Bills are really relying on the Pats, Raiders and Chiefs to win games for them. If you had to rely on 3 teams to help you out, those are pretty good choices.

 

Of course, while none of these games individually is that far fetched having them all occur is very unlikely.

 

But still, as a Bills fan this is pretty much all you have left at the end of a season. So I partake in figuring out how sh*tty the Bills can be and still get into the playoffs.

[Gordio]

 

Actually, 9-7 (with a loss to the Steelers) and the Bills can still get in...and it's not crazily farfetched. Nowhere near likely, but not some crazy scenario like we need the Jags or Browns to start beating people.

 

If the Pats win out, the Raiders win their last 3, the Chiefs win their last 3 and the Steelers beat the Ravens the Bills chances of getting into the playoffs with a 9-7 record, according to the NY Times Playoff Simulator (which is awesome btw) is 75%. That's only if the Bills 7th loss is to the Steelers.

 

The main thing they'd need after that is the Ravens losing again (either to the Eagles or Bengals). That happens and the Bills playoff chances are above 90%. If the Texans or Colts lose any other game the Bills are pretty much in.

 

So the Bills are really relying on the Pats, Raiders and Chiefs to win games for them. If you had to rely on 3 teams to help you out, those are pretty good choices.

 

Of course, while none of these games individually is that far fetched having them all occur is very unlikely.

 

But still, as a Bills fan this is pretty much all you have left at the end of a season. So I partake in figuring out how sh*tty the Bills can be and still get into the playoffs.

 

 

I was messing around with that playoff calculator & actually got the Bills in at 8-8. In this scenerio Cleveland would have to run the table.

[dwight in philly]

i like the optimism and it does make watching the games more enjoyable if there is hope.. . i need it.. kudos to the people on here that have taken the time to crunch the numbers..

[MDH]

 

 

I was messing around with that playoff calculator & actually got the Bills in at 8-8. In this scenerio Cleveland would have to run the table.

 

Yeah, I just did it with the Bills at 8-8. It didn't require the Browns to win a game but it did require the Jags getting some wins vs. Colts and Titans.

[Mr. WEO]

How does this D stop the Steelers offense??

 

Anyway, the cruelest part of the remaining schedule means the loss to the Steelers will make the wins over the last 3 tomato cans we play futile.

[John from Riverside]

How does this D stop the Steelers offense??

 

Anyway, the cruelest part of the remaining schedule means the loss to the Steelers will make the wins over the last 3 tomato cans we play futile.

there is absolutely NO room for another loss

 

We better come out on fire in our own stadium

[RyanC883]

But if they somehow figure out a way to beat the Steelers (I know, I don't think they will either), their path to the playoffs is actually pretty favorable- especially after the Jets' performance last night. I know, I know, they're a bunch of bums, Tyrod Taylor sucks, Rex needs to go, we're in the same spot we're always in at this point in the season, etc., etc. Just saying, on paper, they figure out a way to beat the Steelers, going 10-6 is well within their means and after spending some time looking at it yesterday, 10-6 MUCH more than likely gets them in. Key game will be New England beating Denver for us. That happens and I'd put it at 90%. Now crucify me.

 

stop pestering us with facts. But I agree. And I think we have a decent shot of beating the Steelers.

 

That said, I can see us winning out, but TT is still not the answer at QB unless he shows marked improvement in reading the field, hitting open receivers and hitting receivers who are covered.

there is absolutely NO room for another loss

 

We better come out on fire in our own stadium

 

I hope there are lots of Bills fans there, but I can see the Stadium being at least 50% Steelers fans. Much cheaper to go to a Steelers game in Buffalo (with a short drive) than a Steelers game in Pgh.

I want to be that guy too, then I woke up. My dream was really nice. The Ralph was rocking. (Can't get my heart to say New Era yet) The Bills were pumped and the defense came to play. Pressure was on Big Ben and Antonio Brown left the game after getting laid out by Lorax on a screen pass. Shady is running all kinds of crazy and Sammy is actually Sammy. Even Tyrod hits his deep throw and we go up 24-21 at the half.

 

Then I wake up and Big Ben torches us for 4 more scores and we lose 49-38. But at least my fantasy stats launched me into the playoffs.

The field would win as it takes at least 3 Bills to the IR.

 

Big Ben's TD throwing differential is much different away from Heinz field. It's odd, but he has a big differential. Only issue with this game is it may be an "away" game due to mostly Steeler fans in the crowd.

[Dr.Sack]

I want Pittsburgh.

[bobobonators]

Is there a scenario where the Jets make the playoffs?

[PatsFanNH]

Is there a scenario where the Jets make the playoffs?

Yes one where every playoff team plan crashes before the playoffs... lol

[QB Bills]

I'll take it a step further...

 

The loss to the Raiders might have helped us, exponentially so if Miami had beaten the Ravens. Had we won that game, the Patriots may not have had anything to play for against the Dolphins in week 17. And the Dolphins losing to the Patriots that week is more important than us beating the Raiders would have been.

 

Hear me out:

 

Assuming we beat Oakland and won out, going into week 17, NE could have had home field locked up (because of us beating Oakland). Miami could have a much better shot at beating the Patriots, which would have made us both 11-5 (assuming they don't lose to Arizona or NYJ) at which point they would get in ahead of us because of a better division record. Miami lost to the Ravens, so that makes that part moot.

 

But if we had to lose one game, this was the one that actually provides some benefit. Now, if we both go 10-6, we make it ahead of them. And that sixth loss for the Fins becomes more likely in week 17 because Oakland beat us.

 

Perhaps all part of Rex's strategy. He threw the game!

 

Also, root for the Raiders this Thursday. If the Patriots are 13-2 going into week 17 and the Raiders/Chiefs are both 12-3, the Pats can rest their starters. And even more so, root for the Cardinals this weekend so it makes the Dolphins, and this scenario, a non-factor.

Edited December 6, 2016 by QB Bills

[Fadingpain]

9-7, not good enough for the playoffs and not bad enough to fire people or get a good draft position. Another year in NFL purgatory!

Probably right, but this presupposes that Pegula would only reboot the organization with a miserable showing and a 2-14 season or some such.

 

Who knows what his agenda is? What if he is thinking "Either Rex gets us into the playoffs this year or he's gone" in which case we are not in purgatory at all.

 

Having said that, I agree that is probably unlikely.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

But if they somehow figure out a way to beat the Steelers (I know, I don't think they will either), their path to the playoffs is actually pretty favorable- especially after the Jets' performance last night. I know, I know, they're a bunch of bums, Tyrod Taylor sucks, Rex needs to go, we're in the same spot we're always in at this point in the season, etc., etc. Just saying, on paper, they figure out a way to beat the Steelers, going 10-6 is well within their means and after spending some time looking at it yesterday, 10-6 MUCH more than likely gets them in. Key game will be New England beating Denver for us. That happens and I'd put it at 90%. Now crucify me.

I expect the Steelers and phins To be favored and the jets and browns to be dogs.

[Fadingpain]

How does this D stop the Steelers offense??

 

Anyway, the cruelest part of the remaining schedule means the loss to the Steelers will make the wins over the last 3 tomato cans we play futile.

As everyone pretty much knows, we lose to good teams (with winning records at least) and beat bad teams with losing records.

 

The only exceptions are beating NE in game 1 (though that game is an aberration without Brady), and being beaten by the Jets who are horrible.

 

Those 2 games are a wash; we might as well have beaten the Jets but lost to NE as we would have expected. Same outcome.

 

Enter Pittsburgh: currently sitting at 7-5 and with a good passer for a QB. This is the sort of team that will beat us unless something really unexpected happens, like Big Ben gets injured in the first 10 minutes or something.

[dorquemada]

there is absolutely NO room for another loss

 

We better come out on fire in our own stadium

 

Sure, we'll come out on fire, and be a pile of inert overpaid ash by mid 2nd quarter. Not even good ash like you get from burning maple or oak, more like the stuff that's left over when you burn particle board or that crappy stuff they make cheap shelving from

[Nick the Greek]

YESS!! PLAYOFFS! Love it! One more reasons to watch if we still got a shot. I'll be there.

[dorquemada]

YESS!! PLAYOFFS! Love it! One more reasons to watch if we still got a shot. I'll be there.

 

Also, always wear clean underwear because you have an equal shot of Sophia Vergara pulling up next to you in the street and demanding that you come with her for a weekend of hedonistic pleasure.

[Tenhigh]

 

Also, always wear clean underwear because you have an equal shot of Sophia Vergara pulling up next to you in the street and demanding that you come with her for a weekend of hedonistic pleasure.

Stop being a drama queen.

 

More like Kathy Bates pulling up next to you.

Edited December 6, 2016 by Tenhigh

[8-8 Forever?]

Agreed Metz. While last weeks loss was a heartbreaker considering how bad tyrod did played in the 2nd half and how our defense couldn't make any stops with a 15 pt lead......we have 3 games at home and 1 on the road vs Bryce petty or Christian hackenberg. It can be done. I haven't given up hope

atta boy. they lost the one game everyone on this board said they could and would lose, and everyone is jumping ship, what a bunch of whiners.

 

now they can reasonably win out , go 6-1 after the bye and away we go. This Sunday a much more important and winnable game than last Sunday. this is setting up perfectly. In July, everyone looked at the schedule and said they win a bunch at home in December.... this is their time. Just win Sunday and the mojo is back. Who cares how they win. Just find a way. Lose Sunday and, yeah, I get it, its over for this year....that's why they play the games. go bills.

 

one more chance for glory. This is the NFL, means "not for long". Perceptions of a team are "not for long" (see: MInn. Vikings, Carson Wentz) ; every week is truly a new week in this crazy league with injuries, bad and good breaks, etc.

 

Need the home cookin' 12th man needs to stand up and be heard this Sunday, not stand around and b-tch that TT is no good, etc.

 

This is where Rex needs to hold this team together for a big push... lets see if the staff can get this team moving

Edited December 6, 2016 by 8and8-->NoMore

[dorquemada]

Stop being a drama queen.

 

More like Kathy Bates pulling up next to you.

 

Drama queen? Kathy Bates? Good work, captain joke getter. You must be a blast at parties.

[Tenhigh]

 

Drama queen? Kathy Bates? Good work, captain joke getter. You must be a blast at parties.

Your hyperbolized zinger about Sophia Vergara really had the board on the edge of its seat, fella.

[reddogblitz]

I'll take it a step further...

 

The loss to the Raiders might have helped us, exponentially so if Miami had beaten the Ravens. Had we won that game, the Patriots may not have had anything to play for against the Dolphins in week 17. And the Dolphins losing to the Patriots that week is more important than us beating the Raiders would have been.

 

Hear me out:

 

Assuming we beat Oakland and won out, going into week 17, NE could have had home field locked up (because of us beating Oakland). Miami could have a much better shot at beating the Patriots, which would have made us both 11-5 (assuming they don't lose to Arizona or NYJ) at which point they would get in ahead of us because of a better division record. Miami lost to the Ravens, so that makes that part moot.

 

But if we had to lose one game, this was the one that actually provides some benefit. Now, if we both go 10-6, we make it ahead of them. And that sixth loss for the Fins becomes more likely in week 17 because Oakland beat us.

 

Perhaps all part of Rex's strategy. He threw the game!

 

Also, root for the Raiders this Thursday. If the Patriots are 13-2 going into week 17 and the Raiders/Chiefs are both 12-3, the Pats can rest their starters. And even more so, root for the Cardinals this weekend so it makes the Dolphins, and this scenario, a non-factor.

I love these playoffs scenario things. However, WE have to win. That's where it usually falls apart.

 

Hopefully this year is different.

[dorquemada]

Your hyperbolized zinger about Sophia Vergara really had the board on the edge of its seat, fella.

 

Fella? Oh, so you're elderly. Sorry, nevermind, don't want to angry up your blood right before Matlock comes on.

 

Meanwhile the rest of us can continue to imagine scenarios as ridiculously unlikely as the Bills making the playoffs this year, which is the theme of this thread. I realize there's a lot to unpack there, maybe someone can help you with that.

[Freddie's Dead]

Dream Weaver

I'll see your Gary Wright and raise you an Aerosmith: