2016 Draft Analyst/Expert Mock drafts and Big Boards

[YoloinOhio]

Anyone with Insider? Wondering who he has the Bills taking

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/insider/story/_/id/14678803/qbs-carson-wentz-jared-goff-rising-mcshay-mock-draft-20?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_mcshaymock2

Edited February 10, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[KDIGGZ]

I don't think it matters so I'm not going to get caught up in these this year. I think Whaley and Co are going to take bpa no matter what "needs" the "experts" think we have. Look at Darby last year. I don't think anyone could have predicted that one. I think their focus is D and it will be best player available. I think best player available in that slot will be Nkemdiche

[BigdaddyinOrlando]

I don't think it matters so I'm not going to get caught up in these this year. I think Whaley and Co are going to take bpa no matter what "needs" the "experts" think we have. Look at Darby last year. I don't think anyone could have predicted that one. I think their focus is D and it will be best player available. I think best player available in that slot will be Nkemdiche

I agree with this, wouldn't shock me due to depth of the DL in the draft this year that if a player drops like most years we may b in a spot to trade back a few spots and still get the guy they want.

[CommonCents]

If Nkemdiche is the guy Goodwin will no longer be the teams long jumper.

[Augie]

If Nkemdiche is the guy Goodwin will no longer be the teams long jumper.

I think they make a distinction between horizontal jumping and vertical jumping in the olympics. Extra points for degree of difficulty though.

[BuffaloHokie13]

He has us taking Jaylon Smith.

 

19. Buffalo Bills (8-8)

Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This selection comes with some risk because of Smith's knee injury, but if the Bills' doctors clear him, Smith would be a great pick. He took his game to the next level this past season and is an elite athlete. Smith has experience playing inside and outside and would fit well as the weakside off-ball linebacker in Rex Ryan's defense. Other options here: Alabama DT Jarran Reed and Ohio State OLB Darron Lee.

[Chuck Wagon]

Anyone with Insider? Wondering who he has the Bills taking

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/insider/story/_/id/14678803/qbs-carson-wentz-jared-goff-rising-mcshay-mock-draft-20?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_mcshaymock2

 

 

Jaylon Smith

[BuffaloHokie13]

Other Surprises (ish):

 

Sheldon Rankins going 10th to the Giants

Vernon Butler going 22nd to the Texans

Braxton Miller going 24th to the Bengals

[eball]

Until someone can show me that any draft "expert" can produce a consistent record of 75% or better in identifying who teams select in the 1st round (beyond the top 2-3 picks), the only thing I'll be doing with these predictions is "mocking" them.

[YoloinOhio]

Thanks

 

Miller before Michael Thomas? Hmmm mistake

Until someone can show me that any draft "expert" can produce a consistent record of 75% or better in identifying who teams select in the 1st round (beyond the top 2-3 picks), the only thing I'll be doing with these predictions is "mocking" them.

its just for fun

He has us taking Jaylon Smith.

I would love this if he was going to be ready for camp. I'm not patient. Edited February 3, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[Kirby Jackson]

Other Surprises (ish):

 

Sheldon Rankins going 10th to the Giants

Vernon Butler going 22nd to the Texans

Braxton Miller going 24th to the Bengals

TBD passed on him in the 5th 2 days ago in favor of a kicker

 

We also passed on Rankins about 3 or 4 times

He has us taking Jaylon Smith.

That would be a great, great pick. I don't see him on the board at 19 though. His surgery was supposedly a success.

Edited February 3, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[Chuck Wagon]

Until someone can show me that any draft "expert" can produce a consistent record of 75% or better in identifying who teams select in the 1st round (beyond the top 2-3 picks), the only thing I'll be doing with these predictions is "mocking" them.

 

 

Kiper and McShay readily admit no one can predict who is drafting who. Their target (especially this early) is to get guys in the right range of where they are picked. Even then, you can find plenty of instances where they've had guys going top 5 in Jan-Feb who end up in the 2nd round or later (it's a bit hard to find though as ESPN tends to bury their content where their experts were really wrong).

[bills_fan_in_raleigh]

so we need help at LB so draft a guy coming off knee issue who might not be ready for start of the season.

[Chuck Wagon]

so we need help at LB so draft a guy coming off knee issue who might not be ready for start of the season.

 

 

Who was a slam dunk top 10 pick / potential top 5 pick before the injury. Drafting a guy solely based upon filling a need or only worrying about production in year 1 is how bad teams stay bad.

[metzelaars_lives]

Until someone can show me that any draft "expert" can produce a consistent record of 75% or better in identifying who teams select in the 1st round (beyond the top 2-3 picks), the only thing I'll be doing with these predictions is "mocking" them.

This is a ridiculous post. If it weren't for guys like Kiper and McShay you wouldn't even know where to begin. It would be impossible for anyone to get the draft "75% right." But because of guys like them you have a good idea who's gonna go in what round. Did you "mock" the "experts" when the Bills took Donte Whitner 8th overall? If so, you were mocking the wrong party.

so we need help at LB so draft a guy coming off knee issue who might not be ready for start of the season.

He specifically said "if they can clear him" in the article.

 

 

Who was a slam dunk top 10 pick / potential top 5 pick before the injury. Drafting a guy solely based upon filling a need or only worrying about production in year 1 is how bad teams stay bad.

Correct.

[Kirby Jackson]

This is a ridiculous post. If it weren't for guys like Kiper and McShay you wouldn't even know where to begin. It would be impossible for anyone to get the draft "75% right." But because of guys like them you have a good idea who's gonna go in what round. Did you "mock" the "experts" when the Bills took Donte Whitner 8th overall? If so, you were mocking the wrong party.

He specifically said "if they can clear him" in the article.

Correct.

Even so, most experts projected him in the middle of the 1st to Miami. It isn't like the Bills took some guy projected in the 5th at 8. I am with you that the mock draft guys are necessary and do a great job of telling you about where guys will go. The teams even use them as a guide somewhat.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

That would be a great, great pick. I don't see him on the board at 19 though. His surgery was supposedly a success.

I think linebacker makes more sense for us in the first round than does d line. In our system, do you see Smith as the lighter of the two inside linebackers, the spot Bradham played this year? Or olb perhaps?

[thebandit27]

Other Surprises (ish):

 

Sheldon Rankins going 10th to the Giants

Vernon Butler going 22nd to the Texans

Braxton Miller going 24th to the Bengals

 

To me, the only surprise among those picks is Miller

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

To me, the only surprise among those picks is Miller

Yeah, he's certainly the biggest. I've just seen a very wide range of opinions on where Rankins, Butler, and Maliek Collins will go. I guess that's expected this early in the process though.

[thebandit27]

Yeah, he's certainly the biggest. I've just seen a very wide range of opinions on where Rankins, Butler, and Maliek Collins will go. I guess that's expected this early in the process though.

 

I think Rankins is a likely top-15 pick, but a near-certainty to go top-20. Butler I've got top-25.

 

By the way, if we somehow ended up with the draft in your sig line, I would dance nude in the street in celebration (even though I'm not a Mills or Oakman fan; those are still upside picks).

[Kirby Jackson]

 

To me, the only surprise among those picks is Miller

Me too but people seem to be falling in love with him. He was 40 on Matt Miller's latest big board. It reminds me a little of when Matt Jones skyrocketed up boards after moving to WR. Braxton doesn't have the off the field concerns of Jones though. He is a phenomenal athlete and really explosive. As much as I love the guy he is still a little raw for me to use a 1st on. With that being said, I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the 1st. I could see a contender without a lot of holes taking a shot on that kind of playmaker. The Bengals actually make some sense. They have a pretty good team but could use that swiss army knife kind of guy (especially if Pac-Man is gone or not returning kicks). The Jets make a lot of sense too. They have a couple of pretty good receivers but they aren't explosive. Braxton in the slot would add a great weapon for them.

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

I think Rankins is a likely top-15 pick, but a near-certainty to go top-20. Butler I've got top-25.

 

By the way, if we somehow ended up with the draft in your sig line, I would dance nude in the street in celebration (even though I'm not a Mills or Oakman fan; those are still upside picks).

Ha, yeah I'll be changing it soon once CBS pushes a new board out to Fanspeak. I just don't find their default board remotely realistic (See my latest post in the Mock Draft Thread). As for Mills I think I'm a bit higher on him than you, but I'm certainly not in love with the pick. And Oakman was one of those 'I really don't want to pick you but it's round 4...' guys.

[BarleyNY]

To me, the only surprise among those picks is Miller

Yeah, he's certainly the biggest. I've just seen a very wide range of opinions on where Rankins, Butler, and Maliek Collins will go. I guess that's expected this early in the process though.

Miller has too much raw talent to fall. Some team will fall in love with his potential and take him relatively high. I doubt he makes it to Buffalo's 2nd round pick so he'd probably only be in play with a trade. 19 is too high IMO.

Edited February 3, 2016 by BarleyNY

[thebandit27]

Me too but people seem to be falling in love with him. He was 40 on Matt Miller's latest big board. It reminds me a little of when Matt Jones skyrocketed up boards after moving to WR. Braxton doesn't have the off the field concerns of Jones though. He is a phenomenal athlete and really explosive. As much as I love the guy he is still a little raw for me to use a 1st on. With that being said, I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the 1st. I could see a contender without a lot of holes taking a shot on that kind of playmaker. The Bengals actually make some sense. They have a pretty good team but could use that swiss army knife kind of guy (especially if Pac-Man is gone or not returning kicks). The Jets make a lot of sense too. They have a couple of pretty good receivers but they aren't explosive. Braxton in the slot would add a great weapon for them.

 

That's the exact comparison that I"ve been making--Matt Jones. Jones absolutely blew up the Senior Bowl, and then crushed the combine with sub-4.4 speed.

 

The biggest difference, to me, is that Miller actually has a year of playing the position under his belt, and doesn't seem to be lunkhead like Jones.

 

I actually have the Bengals taking a WR at 24 to replace either Marvin Jones or Mo Sanu--they can't possibly keep both AND pay AJ $14M/year.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

That's the exact comparison that I"ve been making--Matt Jones. Jones absolutely blew up the Senior Bowl, and then crushed the combine with sub-4.4 speed.

 

The biggest difference, to me, is that Miller actually has a year of playing the position under his belt, and doesn't seem to be lunkhead like Jones.

 

I actually have the Bengals taking a WR at 24 to replace either Marvin Jones or Mo Sanu--they can't possibly keep both AND pay AJ $14M/year.

I agree. As much as I love Braxton there are still some WR that are more proven WR (Thomas, Doctson, Coleman and Treadwell). Braxton does offer more upside possibly though. I could see him in the 1st but think the 2nd is more likely.

[Dr. Fong]

As a Notre Dame fan I've watched plenty of Jaylon Smith. To me he's a college player I don't think he will make the transition to the NFL well. As a coverage linebacker maybe, but as an edge rusher he reminds me too much of Aaron Maybin. He has no problem moving and getting to the ball, but never struck me as a great tackler or particularly physical.

[YoloinOhio]

 

That's the exact comparison that I"ve been making--Matt Jones. Jones absolutely blew up the Senior Bowl, and then crushed the combine with sub-4.4 speed.

 

The biggest difference, to me, is that Miller actually has a year of playing the position under his belt, and doesn't seem to be lunkhead like Jones.

 

I actually have the Bengals taking a WR at 24 to replace either Marvin Jones or Mo Sanu--they can't possibly keep both AND pay AJ $14M/year.

braxton lost 11 lbs between the end of the season and the Sr bowl and says his goal is to run a 4.29 at the combine. I do not think he will - but he could run something like a 4.4 and then at his pro day I'm sure they will clock him in the 4.3s. He's more quick/elusive/explosive than he is straight line speed IMO.

I would take the slower Michael Thomas over Miller every day of the week but for a team that wants a Harvin-type, and has a little patience for rawness, he's a great pick wherever he goes. Bengals are probably his dream destination.

 

It also needs to be considered that Braxton will be 24 in a couple months. And still raw. He's already over a year older than Sammy, and Sammy's going into his third professional season. Just find that interesting.

Edited February 3, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[Never NEVER Give-up]

Per espn Insider:

19. Buffalo Bills (8-8)

Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This selection comes with some risk because of Smith's knee injury, but if the Bills' doctors clear him, Smith would be a great pick. He took his game to the next level this past season and is an elite athlete. Smith has experience playing inside and outside and would fit well as the weakside off-ball linebacker in Rex Ryan's defense. Other options here: Alabama DT Jarran Reed and Ohio State OLB Darron Lee.

[Manther]

 

 

Who was a slam dunk top 10 pick / potential top 5 pick before the injury. Drafting a guy solely based upon filling a need or only worrying about production in year 1 is how bad teams stay bad.

I would be very pleased if we got Jaylon at #19.

[KDIGGZ]

He has us taking Jaylon Smith.

We should be so lucky. I don't think he will be there. I think in this defense he's a Bradham so if they take him then they don't have to pay Bradham the big contract he might be after

[P51]

 

 

Who was a slam dunk top 10 pick / potential top 5 pick before the injury. Drafting a guy solely based upon filling a need or only worrying about production in year 1 is how bad teams stay bad.

 

Preach on brother!!

[QuoteTheRaven83]

This is supposedly the deepest d-line class so I'd be shocked if we didn't take a DT or DE early.

 

Sheldon Rankins, Jarran Reed, A'Shawn Robinson, Noah Spence, Shaq Lawson, are all guys that could be there for us. I'd love to draft Rankins or Noah Spence.

Edited February 3, 2016 by QuoteTheRaven83

[Mr. WEO]

Are these Bills team doctors the same ones who cleared Merriman...twice?

 

Did they advise to pass on Gronk (history of back injury) so we could pick Troup (career ending back injury)?

[H2o]

As a Notre Dame fan I've watched plenty of Jaylon Smith. To me he's a college player I don't think he will make the transition to the NFL well. As a coverage linebacker maybe, but as an edge rusher he reminds me too much of Aaron Maybin. He has no problem moving and getting to the ball, but never struck me as a great tackler or particularly physical.

As a Notre Dame fan I have watched every game Jaylon played and he will surely make it in the NFL. He is a SOLID form tackler who wraps up at the point of impact pretty much every single time to get the ball carrier to the ground. He has excellent speed and that closing burst you need to finish plays. The only thing I would worry about him is if he has the strength to fight off blocks inside to stop the ball carrier if he were shifted to ILB in this defense. He would likely need to add about 10lbs, but he has the frame to do it.If he is the weak side LB who drops into coverage he will be fine and I have no 2nd thoughts about him being able to come off the edge with his speed and athleticism.

[YoloinOhio]

Thanks for the insights from the ND fans. I only saw a couple of his games this year. How did he do vs Clemson? Curious to compare him with Ragland v. Clemson.

[BarleyNY]

Who was a slam dunk top 10 pick / potential top 5 pick before the injury. Drafting a guy solely based upon filling a need or only worrying about production in year 1 is how bad teams stay bad.

Preach on brother!!

AMEN!!!

[thebandit27]

Are these Bills team doctors the same ones who cleared Merriman...twice?

 

Did they advise to pass on Gronk (history of back injury) so we could pick Troup (career ending back injury)?

 

Probably, yeah. Half the league had Gronk off their draft boards.

 

They're also the same doctors that saved Kevin Everett's life by the way.

[Adam]

I think linebacker makes more sense for us in the first round than does d line. In our system, do you see Smith as the lighter of the two inside linebackers, the spot Bradham played this year? Or olb perhaps?

I think someone who can run the defense would be a great pick

[Marty McFly]

Thanks for the insights from the ND fans. I only saw a couple of his games this year. How did he do vs Clemson? Curious to compare him with Ragland v. Clemson.

Its a big doubt but if we could steal Ragland in the 1st ill do a backflip moonsault

[26CornerBlitz]

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