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Predict the starting quarterback for week 1..


BillsFan130

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If I posted before oh well... The Bills will pick up Locker, then they will draft Grayson. That is the only move the Bills can pull off that gives them the best chance of finding a starting QB through competition. Hopefully Grayson wins and the Bills make the playoffs.

Edited by Beef Jerky
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When I listen to Rex speak about a QB or about EJ it sounds more and more like he has little faith in EJ and wants to get someone better in here. He don't put EJ down, but he's not confident in him either.

 

So I'm going to say our day 1 starter is not currently on the roster and they will sign someone like Cousins or Sanchez and also trade for a Bradford or Foles and let 3 guys compete in training camp and cut 1 of them. Whaley can not go into a 3rd training camp without 3 QB's hashing it out, I think he learned his lesson the past 2 years, or at least I hope so..

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I'm hoping the starting QB is not on the roster. My fear is that it will be EJ not because he is the best available but because Whaley is trying to save face. I'm hoping they sign two FAs and draft a QB and let EJ compete with them. Unfortunately I don't think they can sign two meaningful FAs though. As soon as the first FA signs all others will stay away as they figure the Bills have their guy and no reason to sign here. Best case is probably sign Locker, draft Grayson (more likely Bridge) and EJ.

Edited by respk
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I gotta go with EJ. I don't think Hackett and Marrone really helped out this kid enough to really see his potential.

I am totally with you on this. It will be interesting to see him in camp this year. Hopefully all the criticism motivated him to work in areas he can improve.

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EJ. He can't develop sitting on the bench, and we still have no idea what we have in him. As I recall, Manning & Brees were worse in their first couple years, Rodgers & Kap rode the pine learning.

 

Ej should be given every fair opportunity to earn the starting job.

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EJ. He can't develop sitting on the bench, and we still have no idea what we have in him. As I recall, Manning & Brees were worse in their first couple years, Rodgers & Kap rode the pine learning.

 

Ej should be given every fair opportunity to earn the starting job.

We certainly have an idea and it isnt good. He could improve but the odds of such a drastic transformation are not likely. Manning was definitely not worse in his first couple years, he was heralded at the best prospect since Elway but was drafted to a terrible team. His ability was always great, he just needed some work on decisions and stuff. EJ needs a LOT of work everywhere. If its EJ I hope its because he has drastically improved and won the job with good competition in camp fair and square, not just by default because we drafted him in the first and need to see what he can do. We know what he can do for the most part.

Edited by jletha
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As of today, Bradford.

 

There's too much scuttlebut about this happening. Whaley hasnt been super tight-lipped about his intentions since he came here, and hasnt used the Jedi mind trick on the fans. And we have almost no money tied up at QB.

Edited by maddenboy
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I am totally with you on this. It will be interesting to see him in camp this year. Hopefully all the criticism motivated him to work in areas he can improve.

 

 

System or no system, u cant teach accuracy. He laid WR's out to dry SO often on simple routes. When he throws short crossing routes or check downs, he seems to "guide the ball" or "push the ball" rather than just throw the ball normally. He lacks too many of the basic skills it requires to be an NFL QB.

 

Can he be better utilised by a diff OC and coach??? Yes. But his weaknesses are still there and outside of a nice play or 2 here and there. He just cant be missing on so many of the "basic plays".

 

He is not the answer.

 

I still think Cutler is the best QB for this team. He is a gun slinger and will make some bad plays but has the arm to make all the throws. Has experience, been to playoffs. I think Rex would be the PERFECT coach for this kid. Cutler needs that coddling and Rex is the type of coach who can take ALOT of pressure off the QB in pressers and interviews and divert the attention to him. A boring guy like Trestman never had anything interesting to say so the attention cant be taken away from Cutler. Rex would be his biggest fan and treat the kid the a son. Working with some nice talent at WR, and having championship caliber D who be a great situation.

 

I doubt we get him especially with his situation with Kromer but Kromer is NOT the OC... Roman is. If we can make this trade work, i'd take him over any rookie, FA or other potential trade target who may be avaiable (bradford, Foles etc).

 

We need someone that can WIN NOW... We have the D and as we are gonna see this offseason. Even the marginal guys are hard to keep cuz teams will overpay for guys that were part of GREAT D's. I'm talking about Searcy (not Hughes who hopefully we re-sign but also will be hard cuz we made him a star). They have already said they wont be able to spend big on a safety after Aaron Williams deal last yr and the truth is, Searcy will probably end up with that kinda deal too. Is he as good as Aaron?? No way, but he was still a solid role player for us that's gonna get paid like a full time starter. Hopefully Duke can take over and use Graham as the 3rd safety who sees field a ton in nickel situations in this D. We used alot more 3 safety looks with Pettine than we did with Schwartz.

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EJ. He can't develop sitting on the bench, and we still have no idea what we have in him. As I recall, Manning & Brees were worse in their first couple years, Rodgers & Kap rode the pine learning.

 

Ej should be given every fair opportunity to earn the starting job.

In his second season, Manning averaged 7.8 ypa, threw for over 4100 yards, and had 26 tds and 15 INTs. The Colts went 13-3.

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I keep seeing this argument, that accuracy can't be coached/QBs can't improve accuracy. So for research sake, I want to see what we got here... this is not to say EJ will or won't improve, but rather, is it possible that he can?

 

P. Manning - 1st year 56.7%, 2nd year 62.1%, high year, 68.8% (12th season), Imrovement 12.1%

T. Brady - 1st year 63.9%, 2nd-4th years, went from 62% down to 60%, high year 68.9% (8th season), Improvement 5-8.9%

D. Brees - 1st year 60.8%, 2nd year 57.6%, high year 70.6% (9th season), Improvement 9.8-13%

E. Manning - 1st year 48.2%, 2nd year 52.8%, high year 63.1% (11th season), Improvement 14.9%

B. Roethlisberger - 1st year 66.4%, 3rd year 59.9%, high year 67.1 (11th season), Improvement 0.7-7.2%

A. Smith - 1st year 50.9%, 3rd year 48.7%, high year 70.2% (7th season), Improvement 9.3-21.5%

 

Those are just a handful of names... Again this isn't to say EJ will improve with accuracy, but it does show that accuracy can improve. I suppose to be more accurate, I should have taken accuracy for the first 2-3 seasons averaged, and compared them to 2-3 most recent/prime seasons of QBs... hm.

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All through training camp we'll hear shaky things about EJ and Tuel and we'll see it in the preseason games. As that mounting sense of dread hits us the team will come out of nowhere and days before the start of the season we'll throw a bunch of money on a 1 year contract with an option to JaMarcus Rusell, a vet with game experience. Rinse, repeat.

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I keep seeing this argument, that accuracy can't be coached/QBs can't improve accuracy. So for research sake, I want to see what we got here... this is not to say EJ will or won't improve, but rather, is it possible that he can?

 

P. Manning - 1st year 56.7%, 2nd year 62.1%, high year, 68.8% (12th season), Imrovement 12.1%

T. Brady - 1st year 63.9%, 2nd-4th years, went from 62% down to 60%, high year 68.9% (8th season), Improvement 5-8.9%

D. Brees - 1st year 60.8%, 2nd year 57.6%, high year 70.6% (9th season), Improvement 9.8-13%

E. Manning - 1st year 48.2%, 2nd year 52.8%, high year 63.1% (11th season), Improvement 14.9%

B. Roethlisberger - 1st year 66.4%, 3rd year 59.9%, high year 67.1 (11th season), Improvement 0.7-7.2%

A. Smith - 1st year 50.9%, 3rd year 48.7%, high year 70.2% (7th season), Improvement 9.3-21.5%

 

Those are just a handful of names... Again this isn't to say EJ will improve with accuracy, but it does show that accuracy can improve. I suppose to be more accurate, I should have taken accuracy for the first 2-3 seasons averaged, and compared them to 2-3 most recent/prime seasons of QBs... hm.

While completion percentage is okay to look at, it doesn't really compare accuracy, rather, completion percentage.

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While completion percentage is okay to look at, it doesn't really compare accuracy, rather, completion percentage.

 

And despite it's limitations it's still the best stat we have to get a gauge on accuracy. I'll trust it more than some random guy's "eyeball test."

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And despite it's limitations it's still the best stat we have to get a gauge on accuracy. I'll trust it more than some random guy's "eyeball test."

Who is a proponent of the random eyeball test?

 

Peyton's 56% could be and probably is much different from EJ's 58%. Let's talk completion percentage to WR's. It's a much better stat that ignores check downs, those throws that everyone on their couch can complete.

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Unless the coaching staff get someone who knows the system or has history of something similar I would place my money on EJ having the reigns.

 

Who is a proponent of the random eyeball test?

Peyton's 56% could be and probably is much different from EJ's 58%. Let's talk completion percentage to WR's. It's a much better stat that ignores check downs, those throws that everyone on their couch can complete.

If that's the case then get a tryout. If you do, I choose you as our Week 1 starter.

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Unless the coaching staff get someone who knows the system or has history of something similar I would place my money on EJ having the reigns.

 

If that's the case then get a tryout. If you do, I choose you as our Week 1 starter.

I assure you, I can complete a 5 yard pass to a RB in the flat. I appreciate your support.

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While completion percentage is okay to look at, it doesn't really compare accuracy, rather, completion percentage.

If you have a better statistic to use for this, I'd gladly use it. I just wanted to verify whether a quarterback can improve or not over the course of their career in terms of accuracy. I believe they can, but many state that it's impossible.

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I've been saying Sam Bradford for like a year so I guess that there is no reason to change my mind now. He makes a lot of sense to me but there are obvious injury concerns.


If you have a better statistic to use for this, I'd gladly use it. I just wanted to verify whether a quarterback can improve or not over the course of their career in terms of accuracy. I believe they can, but many state that it's impossible.

I think that they are 2 different questions. A QB can raise his completion percentage because he goes through progressions faster and throws to guys that are "more open." Can he make more accurate throws? I do not know.

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If you have a better statistic to use for this, I'd gladly use it. I just wanted to verify whether a quarterback can improve or not over the course of their career in terms of accuracy. I believe they can, but many state that it's impossible.

Completion percentage to WR's. See how drastically it changes. And what Kirby said.

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Not sure where to find completion percentage to WRs... but ESPN's splits do have completion percentages for air travel... or at least thats how I read it.

 

Alex Smith's second year (low point) - 11+ yards - 53/131 - 40.5%

Alex Smith's eighth year (high point) - 11+ yards - 30/56 - 53.7%

 

Will take quite a bit of time for other QBs, but is certainly doable to dig through.

 

Edit: Looks like ESPN doesn't have these stats prior to 2002, so some QBs will be out for this...


Eli Manning's first year (low point) - 11+ yards - 20/60 - 33.33%

Eli Manning's eleventh year (high point) - 11+ yards - 93/180 - 51.7%


EJ Manuel - 11+ yards

2013 - 34/87 - 39.1% (10 games)

2014 - 13/40 - 32.5% (4 games)

Total - 47/127 - 37% (14 games)

 

Not starting out great, obviously [/st. Doug]

Edited by Dorkington
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