Beane's First-Round Deals

[DrDawkinstein]

7 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

All good points.

The bolded is a scenario i've thought about probably a thousand times already......Minny did it before, would they do it again?

I, for one, would love to have JJ on this team, however, seeing the way Beane is, he is probably done with high WR's from other teams and will probably want to get his in the draft this year, but just not where everyone thinks.......my gut feeling

 

The difference now is the Vikings arent paying a QB a ton of money, and are looking to draft one. So that money is going to go to Jefferson, and they'll have the QB on a rookie contract.

 

The Vikings are interesting tho, because is they move up to #5 to get a QB then I think the Bills could swing a deal with the Giants to get to #6 and grab Nabers.

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Crazy to think about now in today’s day and age:

 

Allen Pick: sent #12, and two 2nds, for pick #7
 

Edmunds: sent #22 an early 3rd and 6th, for #16

 

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, he positioned himself for the Allen pick by first trading Glenn and picks to get #12.

 

I don't see how he can into the top 10 just trading picks.   He doesn't have the capital.   But a player and his first could get him there.  

 

Bills aren't trading Dawkins (or Spencer Brown?) to move up and expecting to get his replacement in the draft, so it doesn't matter how strong the tackle draft is.   The replacement would have to be on the team or available in free agency.   Edit:  Whoops, Dawg just said that.

 

As someone said - he's just a good bet to do something.

 

Shaw is on to something simply for this reason:

 

Beane has shown a tendency to aggressively improve draft position in the early rounds:

 

2018: Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds

2019: Cody Ford

2022: Kaiir Elam

2023: Dalton Kincaid

 

That's 5 players in 6 years that he's moved up for in the early rounds.

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

 

54 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

Shaw is on to something simply for this reason:

 

Beane has shown a tendency to aggressively improve draft position in the early rounds:

 

2018: Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds

2019: Cody Ford

2022: Kaiir Elam

2023: Dalton Kincaid

 

That's 5 players in 6 years that he's moved up for in the early rounds.

 

2018 - Previously detailed above 1st round trades 
2019 - Ford #40 to #38 (cost a 5th rounder)

2022 - Elam #25 to #23 (cost a 4th rounder)

2022 - Kincaid #27 to #25 (cost a 4th rounder)

 

So with the exception of the 2018 big swings (if you want to call it that), their 1st round movement has been minor.

 

Based on this history, we’re more likely to see them go from #28 to #25ish….but those teams in that range don’t seem to really be necessary to jump. 
 

Is the Diggs trade posturing in the event someone moves ahead of us, we can then jump them, or with Beane really swing for the fences for the first time? 

[BillsFanForever19]

9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As I've tried to digest the hole left by Diggs' departure, I don't for a minute think that Beane is going to sit back and just do the best he can when his pick rolls around late in the first round.   That just isn't his style. 

 

We've often seen Diggs move around in the first round, and I think we will see it again.   He's done little moves, of course, up a pick or two or three, but we've seen at least two big moves:   Cordy Glenn and picks to move up to Cinci's pick (followed by the trade with Denver to go up and get Josh), and the Bills' first round pick to get Diggs.   Two big draft-related moves to fill a hole.  

 

It caused me to wonder what kind of things Beane could be considering now.   Others of you will have much better ideas than I, and I don't really know how to gauge value, cap, and all the other things that need to be considered, but two thoughts came to mind.

 

Maybe the Vikings want to make a bold move to get up to the top of the draft.   Maybe they have a vision for the future of a rebuilt roster.  Maybe they don't want to write a big check for a receiver.  Would they trade Justin Jefferson for the Bills' #1 and some other consideration?  They did it with Diggs, why not again?   Is Aiyuk still on his first contract?   Who else has a proven receiver with a contract the Bills can afford for a year?

 

Or, more along the Cordy Glenn line, who's the quality starter the Bills might package with their first round pick to move up to the top 10?  Does Kromer like Van Demark so much that he'd be willing to part with Dion Dawkins.   Dion and the Bills #1 for the Giants' #1?   What other players are good enough to bring interest but not so good that they're untouchable?  

 

Whatever, we can be sure that Beane is doing some creative thinking.

 

A few things at play here:

 

1.) Jefferson would cost way more than just 28. 

 

2.) Jefferson is a 19.74m cap hit this season. We had about 4.25m in space before the Collins deal today. There's no way we could fit him in before 6/1, even on a new contract.

 

3.) I don't believe for a second Justin Jefferson is available for trade. He's the best WR in Football. A big part of them not paying for Cousins was knowing that they're going to have to and want to pay Jefferson. Jefferson seems excited by the Rookie QB's this season and looks forward to playing with one. And I'm sure they'd want whoever they Draft to throw to Jefferson.

 

When it comes to veterans in a Trade, it'd be Tee Higgins. Maybe Brandon Aiyuk if the negotiations with San Fran are going absolutely nowhere. And I don't see either of those things as a possibility until after 6/1. Justin Jefferson talk just seems like fan fiction.

Edited April 5 by BillsFanForever19

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

When I look around the league and see the number of good receivers that were not drafted in the first round, I get the feeling that fans are more locked into a first round receiver than Beane.  The depth in this draft also contributes to that feeling.  Beane isn't prone to making abrupt moves without a plan.  Trading Diggs wasn't done in a vacuum.  The Bills must be confident of drafting a guy that can be a good player or they believe that somebody like Shorter or Hamler can do the job.  I thought Diggs looked slow and ineffective during the last half of the season.  Davis was too inconsistent.  Improving upon them doesn't seem like it should be much of a reach.  The Bills may also believe that Allen is good enough to elevate the performance of less regarded draft prospects.  In any event, I will be watching the draft unfold with a high degree of anxiety and a couple of adult beverages.

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As I've tried to digest the hole left by Diggs' departure, I don't for a minute think that Beane is going to sit back and just do the best he can when his pick rolls around late in the first round.   That just isn't his style. 

 

We've often seen Diggs move around in the first round, and I think we will see it again.   He's done little moves, of course, up a pick or two or three, but we've seen at least two big moves:   Cordy Glenn and picks to move up to Cinci's pick (followed by the trade with Denver to go up and get Josh), and the Bills' first round pick to get Diggs.   Two big draft-related moves to fill a hole.  

 

It caused me to wonder what kind of things Beane could be considering now.   Others of you will have much better ideas than I, and I don't really know how to gauge value, cap, and all the other things that need to be considered, but two thoughts came to mind.

 

Maybe the Vikings want to make a bold move to get up to the top of the draft.   Maybe they have a vision for the future of a rebuilt roster.  Maybe they don't want to write a big check for a receiver.  Would they trade Justin Jefferson for the Bills' #1 and some other consideration?  They did it with Diggs, why not again?   Is Aiyuk still on his first contract?   Who else has a proven receiver with a contract the Bills can afford for a year?

 

Or, more along the Cordy Glenn line, who's the quality starter the Bills might package with their first round pick to move up to the top 10?  Does Kromer like Van Demark so much that he'd be willing to part with Dion Dawkins.   Dion and the Bills #1 for the Giants' #1?   What other players are good enough to bring interest but not so good that they're untouchable?  

 

Whatever, we can be sure that Beane is doing some creative thinking.

 

 

Creative thinking, yes.

 

"Not his style" to stand pat in the first? He's done so twice, for Rousseau and Oliver.

 

His style is to do different things in different years.

 

Nothing's impossible, but worth pointing out yet again that he has followed the strategy that the academics (Massey and Thaler, Harvard Sports Collective, and all the rest) say best maximizes your chances of draft success.

 

I'm sure you already know this, Shaw, but the studies all say that  you can trade up, but not if it involves giving up large draft assets such as extra first or second round picks. They do point out the exception, which is trading up for a franchise QB.

 

So Beane has followed that. Doesn't mean he will always do so. Seems likely to me, personally.

 

 

4 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

Shaw is on to something simply for this reason:

 

Beane has shown a tendency to aggressively improve draft position in the early rounds:

 

2018: Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds

2019: Cody Ford

2022: Kaiir Elam

2023: Dalton Kincaid

 

That's 5 players in 6 years that he's moved up for in the early rounds.

 

 

 

Yes, but again we are talking about small moves up, a couple of places, except for the move up for Josh Allen, which he'd prepared for the year before, trading way back to get an extra first in case he needed it.

 

And again, he stood pat for Oliver and Rousseau, both really good moves.

 

So Beane has followed the Massey and Thaler wisdom each and every year.

[peterpan]

This Bills team has always modeled our O after the Brady Cheatriots O of yesteryear.   Meaning : smaller shiftier speedier WRs, not really one stud.  Average joe types like the lacrosse player Chris Hogan we had for a few years.

 

I personally disagree that this philosophy is the best way to build around Allen.  Allen is a much different QB than Brady.  Allen like to hold the ball and take deep shots.  Brady couldn’t throw it fast enough.  
 

therefore I’d wet my pants if we could Make a Jefferson Trade, that type of big physical jump ball receiver is the type we need.  A Mike Evans type pairs much better with Allen’s game.  I personally love Legette in this draft to be that type of player.  just don’t see it happening

 

what I do see happening is us drafting guys like Roman Wilson or that McDonkey fella.  And if we do draft WRs this year I really hope we don’t trade up.  I’d rather take multiple WRs with multiple picks.

[Tipster19]

This is the calm before the storm! If anyone thinks that Beane is just gonna let this whole Diggs thing go down without him having something up his sleeve than they are sadly underestimating him. Oh it’s coming, there’s no doubt in my mind. There’s a couple of speculations that I came across and 1 or 2 of them makes perfect sense so if if it’s either one of them than I’m quite confident it’ll be something of that magnitude. Look at Beane’s track record, he’s not afraid to make these shocking decisions and/or trades. It’s coming!

[Playoffs?]

Hopefully he’s going after Andy Reid…

[Bobby Hooks]

2 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

This is the calm before the storm! If anyone thinks that Beane is just gonna let this whole Diggs thing go down without him having something up his sleeve than they are sadly underestimating him. Oh it’s coming, there’s no doubt in my mind. There’s a couple of speculations that I came across and 1 or 2 of them makes perfect sense so if if it’s either one of them than I’m quite confident it’ll be something of that magnitude. Look at Beane’s track record, he’s not afraid to make these shocking decisions and/or trades. It’s coming!

Thanks for the heads up, Tipster! 

[Gregg]

If by explode you mean, select a WR at 28 or maybe trade up to the low 20's or high teens (if he can) if a player he wants starts slipping in the draft, then I agree with you.

Edited April 5 by Gregg

[mrags]

100%. He doesn’t make a move like this unless he’s got something planned. I really think it’s one of 3 options. 
 

1. He packages a whole bunch to move up around the 10th pick for Nabors or Odunze

 

2. He packages less to move into the teens for Thomas Jr. 

 

3. He packages some to move back Into the 2nd rd to grab a 2nd WR after having already picked one in the 1st rd. 

[DJB]

This is the quite the loaded statement 

[Warriorspikes51]

How about this for the Allen  A-BOMB  Offense

28, 60, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd

 

For

16 - Thomas Jr.   &  DK Metcalf

 

DK Metcalf

Thomas Jr
Samuel
Shakir
Hollins 

[Green Lightning]

Just now, mrags said:

100%. He doesn’t make a move like this unless he’s got something planned. I really think it’s one of 3 options. 
 

1. He packages a whole bunch to move up around the 10th pick for Nabors or Odunze

 

2. He packages less to move into the teens for Thomas Jr. 

 

3. He packages some to move back Into the 2nd rd to grab a 2nd WR after having already picked one in the 1st rd. 

Likely #2 or 3. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

Me too!!! Just had my coffee now I gotta 💩

[Tipster19]

If I shared what I came across than I would only be feeding the rumor treadmill. The point is even if that is all bs it doesn’t matter. What matters is just knowing Beane and he’s not taking this laying down, he’s gonna come up with a big time shocker, just expect it.

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Tipster19 said:

If I shared what I came across than I would only be feeding the rumor treadmill. The point is even if that is all bs it doesn’t matter. What matters is just knowing Beane and he’s not taking this laying down, he’s gonna come up with a big time shocker, just expect it.

it's not nice to tease people!  Let's hear it!  

[Coach Tuesday]

Tipsters gonna tip.

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

How about this for the Allen  A-BOMB  Offense

28, 60, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd

 

For

16 - Thomas Jr.   &  DK Metcalf

 

DK Metcalf

Thomas Jr
Samuel
Shakir
Hollins 

 

 

The receivers would be great, but we have more than one need and would be handicapped in the draft for two years.

 

No, thanks.

[26TrapDraw]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

it's not nice to tease people!  Let's hear it!  

Yeah really Tipster. We won’t hold you accountable as long as you preface it with “this is just what I heard” or “take it for what it’s worth because I don’t know if it’s just rumor” then you’re good.

[BarleyNY]

Just now, Coach Tuesday said:

Tipsters gonna tip.

apparently not

[Thurman#1]

4 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

If I shared what I came across than I would only be feeding the rumor treadmill. The point is even if that is all bs it doesn’t matter. What matters is just knowing Beane and he’s not taking this laying down, he’s gonna come up with a big time shocker, just expect it.

 

 

You say you're sure he has a plan? Absolutely. Not even a question.

 

You say you're sure his plan is a shocker? Not convinced. Maybe and maybe not.

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The receivers would be great, but we have more than one need and would be handicapped in the draft for two years.

 

No, thanks.

It won't happen unless Metcalf's contract is redone / extended

 

But, we have cap space next year to make up for losing a few picks....

[mrags]

9 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Likely #2 or 3. 

I agree. But if he’s got a hard on for Odunze I could see it happening. 
 

I really don’t believe they have as many holes as others want to point out. If there was a year to make your move for a playmaker and game changer at the position, this is the year. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, mrags said:

I agree. But if he’s got a hard on for Odunze I could see it happening. 
 

I really don’t believe they have as many holes as others want to point out. If there was a year to make your move for a playmaker and game changer at the position, this is the year. 

 

THANK YOU!!  

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

It won't happen unless Metcalf's contract is redone / extended

 

But, we have cap space next year to make up for losing a few picks....

 

 

Bringing in FAs doesn't make up for losing VERY IMPORTANT picks. It's not just "a few picks." It's the heart of the draft fro two years in a row.

 

Teams are built through the draft. You need a good solid percentage of the draft picks to hit. You need those guys who'll be here for four or five years minimum at a very reasonable price. That's how teams are built, and it's not just me saying so, it's Beane as well.

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Bringing in FAs doesn't make up for losing VERY IMPORTANT picks. It's not just "a few picks." It's the heart of the draft fro two years in a row.

 

Teams are built through the draft. You need a good solid percentage of the draft picks to hit. You need those guys who'll be here for four or five years minimum at a very reasonable price. That's how teams are built, and it's not just me saying so, it's Beane as well.

Using those picks to get a player who can be a top 5 WR with Allen  and another potentially elite WR  is  IMO well worth it  

The position is by far in desperate need of that talent level 

[Green Lightning]

1 minute ago, mrags said:

I agree. But if he’s got a hard on for Odunze I could see it happening. 
 

I really don’t believe they have as many holes as others want to point out. If there was a year to make your move for a playmaker and game changer at the position, this is the year. 

On this I totally agree. On your other point, it's not so much that we have that many holes, we just don't have enough elite players. I see other AFC teams with top five players in key positions. Outside of Josh and Milano, we have none. Granted Josh makes up for a world of woes, but we need a few more playmaker/game changers to keep pace in the AFC IMO. 

[Lost]

22 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

This is the calm before the storm! If anyone thinks that Beane is just gonna let this whole Diggs thing go down without him having something up his sleeve than they are sadly underestimating him. Oh it’s coming, there’s no doubt in my mind. There’s a couple of speculations that I came across and 1 or 2 of them makes perfect sense so if if it’s either one of them than I’m quite confident it’ll be something of that magnitude. Look at Beane’s track record, he’s not afraid to make these shocking decisions and/or trades. It’s coming!

 

Isiah McKenzie 3.0 Incoming 😂

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

On this I totally agree. On your other point, it's not so much that we have that many holes, we just don't have enough elite players. I see other AFC teams with top five players in key positions. Outside of Josh and Milano, we have none. Granted Josh makes up for a world of woes, but we need a few more playmaker/game changers to keep pace in the AFC IMO. 

Well. I’d argue getting into the top 10 would almost guarantee your getting one at WR which is the most important t piece on Offense behind Josh 

[boyst]

1 minute ago, Lost said:

 

Isiah McKenzie 3.0 Incoming 😂

Trent Sheffield and Harty 2.0 coming in hot.

 

I still can't believe people thought Harty or Sheffield would do more and be bigger than McKenzie.

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

I agree. But if he’s got a hard on for Odunze I could see it happening. 
 

I really don’t believe they have as many holes as others want to point out. If there was a year to make your move for a playmaker and game changer at the position, this is the year. 

 

 

You can get playmakers and game changers without trading up to the top ten. You just can. And this is a year for WRs when it looks like there are likely to be some game changers available in the 20s and probably even into round two, maybe even round three.

 

As for not many holes, who's our LB depth? Do you really think the interior OL is solid with a guy who hasn't played more than a few dozen snaps at center since high school playing center? LG looks a bit questionable as well. Neither of the guys we've got lined up to play safety right now has ever settled in as a starter consistently in any of the teams they've been on. And our pass rush does NOT look good right now with last year's leading sacker gone.

 

We've got some real spots to fill. This lineup isn't a disaster, but if they don't fill some of these gaps and depth needs as well, we'll see the results on the field.

[4merper4mer]

22 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

How about this for the Allen  A-BOMB  Offense

28, 60, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd

 

For

16 - Thomas Jr.   &  DK Metcalf

 

DK Metcalf

Thomas Jr
Samuel
Shakir
Hollins 

DK Metcalf is the new shiny object?

[nucci]

isn't it always calm before the storm?

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, mrags said:

Well. I’d argue getting into the top 10 would almost guarantee your getting one at WR which is the most important t piece on Offense behind Josh 

Sure.  And getting there from 28 is akin to getting to Alpha Centauri on your tricycle.

Edited April 5 by 4merper4mer

[Bray Wyatt]

27 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

How about this for the Allen  A-BOMB  Offense

28, 60, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd

 

For

16 - Thomas Jr.   &  DK Metcalf

 

DK Metcalf

Thomas Jr
Samuel
Shakir
Hollins 

 

Curious how you came up with that comp?

 

Not that I would be against this trade (it's not the heart of two drafts as some claim)

 

28 becomes 16 and we have an extra 2nd next year.

 

So only real sacrifice is 60, 128 and next years 1st. We survived trading a 1st for Diggs, I think we would be just fine here as well. Plus we now have cap room (for next year) to make a splash if another big hole arises

Edited April 5 by Bray Wyatt

[BarleyNY]

37 minutes ago, mrags said:

 

I really don’t believe they have as many holes as others want to point out. If there was a year to make your move for a playmaker and game changer at the position, this is the year. 

 

If I agreed with you on the number of holes in the roster then it would be easy to say we should push in for a stud WR prospect or player. I don’t so it is not that simple. Our defense needs a pass rush and difference makers in the worst way. 

 

I think an argument can still be made to do it though. Get MHJ, Nabors or Odunze this year and then start finding those difference makers on defense in FA next offseason. That’s a reasonable strategy. I’d be happy to go this route if it’s for one of the top 3 WRs in the draft. I have no interest in a big move for any other WR prospect though. 

Edited April 5 by BarleyNY

[Tipster19]

18 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

it's not nice to tease people!  Let's hear it!  

 

15 minutes ago, 26TrapDraw said:

Yeah really Tipster. We won’t hold you accountable as long as you preface it with “this is just what I heard” or “take it for what it’s worth because I don’t know if it’s just rumor” then you’re good.

 

14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You say you're sure he has a plan? Absolutely. Not even a question.

 

You say you're sure his plan is a shocker? Not convinced. Maybe and maybe not.

Ok, you guys asked for it. I’m not saying this so don’t hold me accountable! It’s a supposedly a picture of Jefferson at Buffalo’s airport. I got to go to an appointment and tech illiterate so I’m having trouble posting the picture. Personally I don’t think it’s him but I’ll figure it out later and post it. Remember I’m not saying it and a few of you asked for this!
 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

6 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

Curious how you came up with that comp?

 

Not that I would be against this trade (it's not the heart of two drafts as some claim)

 

28 becomes 16 and we have an extra 2nd next year.

 

So only real sacrifice is 60, 128 and next years 1st. We survived trading a 1st for Diggs, I think we would be just fine here as well. Plus we now have cap room (for next year) to make a splash if another big hole arises

I figure the price to get pick 16 is 28, a 4th & 2025 2nd

Then IF he were going to be moved,  Metcalf for a 1st & 2nd 

 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Tipster19 said:

 

 

Ok, you guys asked for it. I’m not saying this so don’t hold me accountable! It’s a supposedly a picture of Jefferson at Buffalo’s airport. I got to go to an appointment and tech illiterate so I’m having trouble posting the picture. Personally I don’t think it’s him but I’ll figure it out later and post it. Remember I’m not saying it and a few of you asked for this!
 

 

 

The rumor on twitter was a photo of OBJ, not Jefferson  and it was the Newark airport, not Buffalo

Sorry!  

Edited April 5 by Warriorspikes51