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How would you construct the 2024 Bills WR Room?


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I'm firmly in the Packers model camp of adding WR talent through the draft. I would love to draft the best WR at 28 or even trade back into the 2nd, and then pick up another in the 4th to compete with Shorter for the last active roster spot. I wouldn't be opposed to Beane getting aggressive if there's a guy he really likes and he's only giving up one of our first or MIN 2nd next year, but with the roster retool we just went through the focus should be on maximizing Josh's 2nd window which to me means putting rookie-scale WRs around him. I think even without a true #1 next year, between Kincaid/Shakir/Samuel/Cook/rookie WR there is solid enough depth for Josh to work with if he can perform at the level we expect him to. I mean hell Mahomes just won 2 SBs without a top WR.

 

Shakir

Samuel

1st or 2nd round WR

Hollins

4th round WR

Shorter/Isabella

 

 

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8 minutes ago, 518Buffalo said:

I'm firmly in the Packers model camp of adding WR talent through the draft. I would love to draft the best WR at 28 or even trade back into the 2nd, and then pick up another in the 4th to compete with Shorter for the last active roster spot. I wouldn't be opposed to Beane getting aggressive if there's a guy he really likes and he's only giving up one of our first or MIN 2nd next year, but with the roster retool we just went through the focus should be on maximizing Josh's 2nd window which to me means putting rookie-scale WRs around him. I think even without a true #1 next year, between Kincaid/Shakir/Samuel/Cook/rookie WR there is solid enough depth for Josh to work with if he can perform at the level we expect him to. I mean hell Mahomes just won 2 SBs without a top WR.

 

Shakir

Samuel

1st or 2nd round WR

Hollins

4th round WR

Shorter/Isabella

 

 

Packers don't reach for WR. They let them come to them. And usually not in the first round. They grab a few and let them develop. Their offense is different than ours. 

 

At the same time I want a versatile WR if we need to change OC's we aren't stuck with one who can only fit one mould. 

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If I'm GM, I'm targeting either Adonai Mitchell or Brian Thomas Jr.   Will start considering moving up for Thomas if he slips past pick 16 or also moving up a few spots for Mitchel once Thomas is off the board.   If we can sit back and land Mitchel at 28 without moving up, I'm using one of our 4th rd picks on WR too.

 

WR group

 

Mitchell/Thomas

Samuel

Shakir

Hollins

Shorter

4th Rd Pick

 

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The most realistic approach is the one the media is pushing and I agree 100%:

Beane will not sell the farm to move up. Can't afford to.

 

Ayouk (trade with SF - #28, next years Bills #2, we keep Minn #2).

Shakir

Samuel

Hollins

4th round WR

Shorter/Isabella

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2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Lol, it’s a different world than it was in 2014. The salary cap in 2014 was $133M. The top 10 highest cap hits for a wr in 2014 averaged $12m or 9% of the salary cap. So basically, the teams with the highest paid guys paid them 9% of the cap. In 2024, they average over $26M and 10.3% of the cap. That is BEFORE Jefferson and Chase sign their extensions. That number will be roughly 12% when they do. We need to STOP comparing situations to different generations. For perspective 3% of the current cap is almost $8m of cap space. What happened at WR in 2014 is not comparable to 2024.
 

It's not the cap that did him in.  He gambled on Watkins and (eventually) lost.  For Many reasons of course.

That said, I'd be more supportive of a move like this with last year's roster vs the current one, which is in the middle of a rolling reboot. 

I could be convinced to get behind your move though. There's more than one way to get to the big dance.

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1 minute ago, Dillenger4 said:

The most realistic approach is the one the media is pushing and I agree 100%:

Beane will not sell the farm to move up. Can't afford to.

 

Ayouk (trade with SF - #28, next years Bills #2, we keep Minn #2).

Shakir

Samuel

Hollins

4th round WR

Shorter/Isabella

 

You say we can't afford to sell the farm?....yet we can afford to straight up trade 28 and a high pick next year?  + pay Aiyuk 28 million a year


Why can't we trade 28 and a 2nd next year to move up to 17-19 ?   

 

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Let the draft playout, I'd prefer to keep most of our picks or if trade up do so in later rounds vs early because we need more than just a WR to come out of this draft. I'd also like a possible Edge rusher, a DT and a Safety and maybe not this order. Then after June 1st when we get our Tre White money back see if any veterans are available for a picks in 2025 (see Higgins or Ayiuk). 

4 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

You say we can't afford to sell the farm?....yet we can afford to straight up trade 28 and a high pick next year?  + pay Aiyuk 28 million a year


Why can't we trade 28 and a 2nd next year to move up to 17-19 ?   

 

The top 2 WRs taken in the 2023 draft were Quinton Johnston and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, guess what? they got out performed by guys taken after them in Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers, aka just because you draft a guy earlier doesn't necessarily make them better. Toss in think it safe to assume that Aiyuk would likely out perform a rookie. 

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8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

You say we can't afford to sell the farm?....yet we can afford to straight up trade 28 and a high pick next year?  + pay Aiyuk 28 million a year


Why can't we trade 28 and a 2nd next year to move up to 17-19 ?   

 

We can but 17-19 gets you what? A hope.

Ayouk isn't 28 million btw.

And clearly you missed the part that we keep our draft in place this year.

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20 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

The most realistic approach is the one the media is pushing and I agree 100%:

Beane will not sell the farm to move up. Can't afford to.

 

Ayouk (trade with SF - #28, next years Bills #2, we keep Minn #2).

Shakir

Samuel

Hollins

4th round WR

Shorter/Isabella

This is another possible angle. They can give Ayiuk the Diggs money.

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2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is another possible angle. They can give Ayiuk the Diggs money.

They are talking about in right now on NFLN, saying Ayouk camp is interested and his "deal" is more palliative than people think.

Just now, Dillenger4 said:

They are talking about in right now on NFLN, saying Ayouk camp is interested and his "deal" is more palliative than people think.

This goes down by tomorrow. Go Beaner!

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4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Now that the dust has settled, how would you construct the WR room moving forward? Lay out the 6 or 7 WRs that you believe will comprise the WR room. For anyone not currently on the roster, lay out how they were acquired. There is a lot of talk in other threads about draft taargets, trade targets, guys left in FA. This is meant to talk about ALL of the WRs. Please do not use this as a place to say that we think Kincaid will see the ball more. That’s common sense. Let’s keep this strictly to WRs. How would you build out this room if you were Brandon Beane?

 

WR room:

- MHJ (Bills trade: pick 28, pick 133, 2025 1st, Minnesota 2025 2nd, Bills 2025 4th) (Arizona trades pick 4) 

- Khalil Shakir

- Curtis Samuel

- Michael Thomas (1 year $8M deal post June 1)

- Jermaine Burton (pick 128)

- Mack Hollins

 

PS (2 or 3 of):

- Shorter

- Isabella

- Shavers

- UDFA

 

We are pushing the chips in on a generational talent in MHJ. The Bills get an alpha, that has complete skills, HOF pedigree, on a rookie deal. 
 

It was hard to find the appropriate value for Arizona but if they think the Bills take a small step back & Minnesota a step back, the value is there. Those picks could be like picks 20 & 38 in 2025. Along with the mid round assets, it gets done. The Bills pay a hefty price but WRs aren’t cheap anymore.


Shakir and Samuel are sort of interchangeable in my mind. They can play inside, outside and run after the catch. Samuel will be used more for gadgets and running plays but they’re both dangerous with the ball in their hands.

 

The Bills get Thomas on a prove it deal. He’s battled injuries for a while but was once great. The “slant god” gives Allen a reliable, big body target, that can help on possession downs and in the red zone. If it works out, and he stays healthy, the Bills could consider bringing him back. If not, they move on in 2025.

 

Burton goes to the Bills in the mid rounds. I haven’t been a huge fan of his through the draft process. There are some character concerns. He isn’t a guy that I’ve taken often while doing mocks, but just feels like the right fit to take the top off the defense here. His long speed fits well with this group. He’s been a really good deep ball guy and the Bills need that.

 

Hollins is a ST guy and has been okay when targeted. He’s a rich man’s Kumerow.

 

2025 FA class is absolutely loaded at WR (at least at this point). The Bills can decide to chase a big fish (ie Jefferson, Higgins, etc..) if they so choose. The above group should be enough to be competitive in 2024.

 

To conclude: The Bills give up a lot of assets to get Harrison but immediately fill the top of their depth chart on a rookie deal. They add Thomas and Burton to add a couple of different skill sets to the roster. Overall the group has some balance and a true difference maker. 
 

How would you build the room out?

 

 

Is there anything more maddeningly consistent that the NOLA boys @Kirby Jackson and @NoSaint being in love with making can’t guard Michael Thomas a thing?

 

2019 was a long time ago. Dude was molasses then. Now he’s geriatric.

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26 minutes ago, TPS said:

It's not the cap that did him in.  He gambled on Watkins and (eventually) lost.  For Many reasons of course.

That said, I'd be more supportive of a move like this with last year's roster vs the current one, which is in the middle of a rolling reboot. 

I could be convinced to get behind your move though. There's more than one way to get to the big dance.

But if he said “Mike Evans” instead, he won. That’s why I specifically chose Harrison of the 3. He’s the least likely to disappoint IMO. At the end of the day, he will be, at worst, a 1100 yard guy with 8 TDs. 

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4 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

They are talking about in right now on NFLN, saying Ayouk camp is interested and his "deal" is more palliative than people think.

This goes down by tomorrow. Go Beaner!

a lot of comments on internets saying it'd be a our #28 plus a 4th this year or 3rd next year.... makes me wonder

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I’d call the niners about Brandon Ayuk and ask if they want that 2025 second for him.

Id see if it was realistic to get into the top 20 without going nuts to see if they could grab Brian Thomas or Adoni Mitchell. 

Id then turn around and comeback at WR in round 4 if a guy like Roman Wilson fell

Giving me

Ayuk

Shakir

Samuel

Thomas

Wilson 

Hollins 

that’s pretty damn good and still leaves you with enough Capitol to take care of other needs on defense and a couple young oline prospects for Kromer to groom 

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10 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

They are talking about in right now on NFLN, saying Ayouk camp is interested and his "deal" is more palliative than people think.

This goes down by tomorrow. Go Beaner!

 

It can't go down by tomorrow. Aiyuk is on a 5th year option at $14m. That means to trade for him we'd need to be able to absorb that contract (even if we then immediately extend him and lower the hit) and we can't. We can't extend him until he is on our roster. He can't be on our roster unless we can absorb the current contract. 

 

Could he do a 1 year extension with SF, to lower his hit to nothing this year on the basis he has a gentleman's agreement that the Bills would immediately re-do that deal again? Possible, but unlikely. 

Edited by GunnerBill
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Just now, wppete said:

I have a feeling Beane will trade up for a WR in the 1st round and Dawson Knox will be included in the trade. I really hope its for Nabers. 

Dawson Knox just took a big pay-cut. That’s very bad business to have a guy take a massive pay-cut and then trade them. That’s something players remember and talk about to other players. 
 

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It can't go down by tomorrow. Aiyuk is on a 5th year option at $14m. That means to trade for him we'd need to be able to absorb that contract (even if we then immediately extend him and lower the hit) and we can't. We can't extend him until he is on our roster. He can't be on our roster unless we can absorb the current contract. 

 

Could he do a 1 year extension with SF, to lower his hit to nothing this year on the basis he has a gentleman's agreement that the Bills would immediately re-do that deal again? Possible, but unlikely. 


I also don’t think they’re interested in adding another massive WR 1 contract right now unless they miss out on the draft targets they want. I think they want two cheap WR contracts first and only add another 20 million dollar guy if it doesn’t work out in the draft. 

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Too rich for me. The only position you should get crazy like that is QB, in my opinion. I wouldn't mind a trade up into the 15 to 20 range. But I think it is reckless and irresponsible to trade up into the top 10, especially when it is so important for the Bills to draft well over the next couple of years.

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3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Trade our 1st this year and a 4th next year for Aiyuk.  Draft the best WR available in round 2.  Next year you'll have a 1st and two 2nd's to address likely needs (CB, DE, and OT).

I like this idea, however, what about trading next years 1st and 4th for Aiyuk while moving to pick 31 and getting pick 90. That would be my take it or leave it deal to SF. Good luck getting a 1st for him with all the WRs in this class.

If there's a Chop, an Olineman, maybe a Nix or Pennix that the Niners want, then there's the offer.

 

BTW, Then I'm taking McConkey at 31 and targeting Sweat with the 2nd.

Edited by nosejob
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3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Okay, that’s a fair opinion. I’m not looking for “a good guy.” I’m looking for a top of the depth chart, low risk, stud. 
 

The goal of this wasn’t to say what we wouldn’t do. There’s plenty of that going on here already. This was, “who would be your 6 or 7 WRs on the roster this year and how did you get them?” Obviously we don’t know who will be on the board at 28 but we can use reasonable assumptions. Harrison won’t be, Pearsall will be, Mitchell might be. Be reasonable but lay out what your group would look like

 

This is probably going to sound heretical but...go light on the WRs.

 

Hear me out:

A lot of Brady's wrinkles were off of what Shanahan was running in San Fran. And ho boy, does Shanahan love his 21, 22 and 13 personnel.

 

I mean, if I am going to look at the skill position players the Bills have right now that differentiate them (explosive or what is different from most NFL teams), this is what I come up with:

James Cook (Use analogous to CMC)

Curtis Samuel (a poor man's Deebo Samuel)

Khalil Shakir (great hands, great separation, great YAC)

Kincaid (great ability to get open, one of the more surehanded tight ends in the league)

Gilliam (one of the better FBs in the league)

 

The more I look, the more the remaining pieces look like what Shanahan has been doing. Maybe the skill pieces are not quite as good, but with Allen to make plays, I think the Bills could mow down the increasingly lighter defenses of the league.

 

So, how would I construct the room, based on what the team has now and what I think they are likely to acquire?

Curtis Samuel: starting Y receiver, can be used as moveable chess piece in slot of backfield

Shakir: starting slot receiver, Y receiver on plays when Samuel is in the backfield

Justin Shorter: starting X (weakside) receiver, pending a rookie fighting him for the job

[Yet to be drafted high round rookie]: Competition for X receiver, ideally taking the job from Shorter

[Yet to be drafted mid round rookie]/Isabella/Hollins/Thompson: fight out for depth and ST roles for 2 spots

 

That would get the Bills 6 WR, with my ideal groupings of [high impact rookie], Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Cook as a base set, modified with swapping out Cook for Knox on obvious pass downs, and Kincaid for heavy run sets.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

Stay at 28. Draft a WR. The WR class is loaded no need to give up next year 1st. 

 

Especially with this being a deep draft class at WR. Look at last year as an example. The Rams drafted Puka Nacua in the 5TH ROUND, and he went out and had 105 receptions for 1,486 yards with 6 TD's. The pressure is on Beane to upgrade at WR obviously but as the Rams proved you can find them in the later rounds.

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I think there is a strong possibility of a major move upwards in this draft for a top WR.

I also feel Beane has a handshake deal in place to make a move to #4 or #6.

Add in the fact that our 2025 Cap space is large we can fill some holes through FA in 2025


the WRs in this draft are deep but after the 1st 4 come off the board the rest of the field looks like rock solid #2s or field stretchers. We need a stud #1 to compliment Allen and I don't feel accepting whomever is left at #28 or in the 2nd round will fill hole we have at the #1 WR position, and a #1 WR is not on our roster today. We have solid players who will make an impact but not a #1

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8 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

I think there is a strong possibility of a major move upwards in this draft for a top WR.

I also feel Beane has a handshake deal in place to make a move to #4 or #6.

Add in the fact that our 2025 Cap space is large we can fill some holes through FA in 2025


the WRs in this draft are deep but after the 1st 4 come off the board the rest of the field looks like rock solid #2s or field stretchers. We need a stud #1 to compliment Allen and I don't feel accepting whomever is left at #28 or in the 2nd round will fill hole we have at the #1 WR position, and a #1 WR is not on our roster today. We have solid players who will make an impact but not a #1

 

I could see Beane having a potential deal with AZ for MHJ or NYG for Nabers 

If it's NYG for #6, there's a chance we could keep pick 60   (28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd, 4th)  
 

Could also target 9-12 range for Odunze  (28, 2025 1st, 2nd) 

 

Come away with an Alpha in Nabers / Odunze  and maybe a guy like Franklin / Pearsall / Polk at 60
 

Edited by Warriorspikes51
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If it is small trade up to get the guy you want fine. However, no to moving up into the Top 5 for a WR. I am only giving up huge draft haul when looking for a QB. Other than that no to any other position. I would rather trade picks for a veteran WR at that point who actually has performed at the NFL level.

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48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It can't go down by tomorrow. Aiyuk is on a 5th year option at $14m. That means to trade for him we'd need to be able to absorb that contract (even if we then immediately extend him and lower the hit) and we can't. We can't extend him until he is on our roster. He can't be on our roster unless we can absorb the current contract. 

 

Could he do a 1 year extension with SF, to lower his hit to nothing this year on the basis he has a gentleman's agreement that the Bills would immediately re-do that deal again? Possible, but unlikely. 

How about a 14 mil. signing bonus?

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Shakir

Samuel

RD1 Pick (Around 28)

RD2 Pick (Trade up)

Hollins

Shorter

 

OR

 

Shakir

Samuel

Nabers (big trade up)

Vet WR not on roster currently

Hollins

Shorter 

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1 hour ago, 518Buffalo said:

I'm firmly in the Packers model camp of adding WR talent through the draft. I would love to draft the best WR at 28 or even trade back into the 2nd, and then pick up another in the 4th to compete with Shorter for the last active roster spot. I wouldn't be opposed to Beane getting aggressive if there's a guy he really likes and he's only giving up one of our first or MIN 2nd next year, but with the roster retool we just went through the focus should be on maximizing Josh's 2nd window which to me means putting rookie-scale WRs around him. I think even without a true #1 next year, between Kincaid/Shakir/Samuel/Cook/rookie WR there is solid enough depth for Josh to work with if he can perform at the level we expect him to. I mean hell Mahomes just won 2 SBs without a top WR.

 

Shakir

Samuel

1st or 2nd round WR

Hollins

4th round WR

Shorter/Isabella

 

Don't really care what the Packers did with their WR group...they've accomplished little in the playoffs even with Rodgers going back years.  They are in no way a blueprint for how to build an offense and even after investing more at WR, it was too little too late.  If there's a similarity to Buffalo, it's that they didn't support their franchise QB with what it takes to build a SB caliber offense.     

 

This sort of evaluation above values their quantity too highly as opposed to quality.  This is only realized when the season starts and guys like Shakir and Samuel are elevated to more prominent roles they cannot equal previous production.  It's like Davis a few years ago going from being the WR3 and people just assuming he'd produce as a WR2.  He never did.

 

And then there's the assumption that younger players will improve.  Davis never really did nor has Knox.  I like Kincaid, but it's no guarantee that a 2nd year player breaks out.  You don't pin your hopes on young players who are unproven, while increasing their role.  It's why one of the issues moving Diggs is that they didn't have a plan aside from drafting someone.    

 

Let's assume they get into position to take one of the top WR's.  Josh's top targets next year will include that rookie, Samuel (who is a career 10.7 ypc guy), 2nd year man Kincaid, Shakir who is a tweener type WR, and PS caliber types.  To me, even with the trade, their planning to support Josh is highly questionable.   

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16 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Shakir

Samuel

RD1 Pick (Around 28)

RD2 Pick (Trade up)

Hollins

Shorter

 

OR

 

Shakir

Samuel

Nabers (big trade up)

Vet WR not on roster currently

Hollins

Shorter 

 

Nabers is immediately the best WR on this team 

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2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Nabers is immediately the best WR on this team 

 

Oh, agreed .. that wasn't in order of talent.

 

Nabers might be the most talented WR we've ever had here.. in Bills history, should we make the move. 

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29 minutes ago, nosejob said:

How about a 14 mil. signing bonus?

 

That isn't the contract you are trading for though. That is the point. You can't adjust the contract before he is on your team and he can't be on your team unless you can absorb the contract without being over the cap. 

 

The ONLY way of doing it is getting him to sign a new deal with the 49ers, and trusting them and the Bills that they will still trade him and the Bills will immediately re-do that deal again. And that kind of thing doesn't happen. 

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I can see a trade up for a WR but I don't think we have or will spend the capital to get to Harrison. I'd say slim but possible chance of trading to around 10-12 if one of the other top two guys are there and they love him, or a very good chance of trading to high teens or low 20s to snag Thomas. I think if Beane really likes Thomas he doesn't chance waiting till 28 and will spend a bit of capital for insurance.

So for all the experts...

Between Nabers, Odunze and Thomas, is there a huge gap between the first two and Thomas? I like size here and so I'm not sure about Nabers.

I think I read Odunze has a higher ceiling than Nabers — true?

Then there's Mitchell. Not as polished but has traits as well. How do you rank and differentiate those 3 or maybe 4 guys? Are Nabers and/or Odunze that much better than Thomas where the upside is worth losing next years first and second and whatever it takes?

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That isn't the contract you are trading for though. That is the point. You can't adjust the contract before he is on your team and he can't be on your team unless you can absorb the contract without being over the cap. 

 

The ONLY way of doing it is getting him to sign a new deal with the 49ers, and trusting them and the Bills that they will still trade him and the Bills will immediately re-do that deal again. And that kind of thing doesn't happen. 

Well he is the only trade scenario I would consider. So, give me (28) Ladd and Legette. Two good complimentary guys....somehow.

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Andre Reed, Eric Moulds, Bobby Chandler, Lee Evans, Elbert "Golden Wheels" Dubinion...

 

Minus that, I'm good with Kirby.  But being in Cap Hell sucks.  We have too many holes to fill, including at WR, and not enough money/picks to do everything we need to do.   It's hard to imagine how Beane will fix all this.  He's the one who got us to this dire point.  Let's see if he can get us someplace better by September as he says.   

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Look, I know Bleacher Report isn't really serious, but their package for Aiyuk to the Bills is our 1st and a 5th. I just did a thing about how the Bills look like an excellent fit make a variation on what Shanahan is doing with the Niners. I would make that trade in a heartbeat.

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1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Look, I know Bleacher Report isn't really serious, but their package for Aiyuk to the Bills is our 1st and a 5th. I just did a thing about how the Bills look like an excellent fit make a variation on what Shanahan is doing with the Niners. I would make that trade in a heartbeat.

I love the BR draft profiles. Seems pretty thorough, easy to navigate and seems to maybe give more realistic selection projections....and my favorite part, pro comparisons.

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5 hours ago, billieve420 said:

If it is small trade up to get the guy you want fine. However, no to moving up into the Top 5 for a WR. I am only giving up huge draft haul when looking for a QB. Other than that no to any other position. I would rather trade picks for a veteran WR at that point who actually has performed at the NFL level.


The argument for doing it is the rookie contract. If you believe it is a can’t-miss player it is attractive. 

 

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