Which round are the Bills more likely to trade up....1st or 2nd??

[Special K]

I can see scenarios where the Bills could either trade up or trade down in the 1st and 2nd round, however this question is regarding trade ups.

 

IMO, I think it is a no-brainer that the Bills will try to trade up in the 2nd round....they have enough draft capital to facilitate moving up, and the value at pick 60 does not coincide with the positions the Bills will likely want to fill in the draft.

 

I predict a move up of 10-15 spots in the 2nd to either snag a WR if they go Defense at 28, or to grab a difference-maker on Defense if they get their WR in round one.

 

What do you think??

[WotAGuy]

If anything, it will be third or lower. Their trade ammo is all lower rounds picks. 

[gonzo1105]

Neither. To move up 10 spots in the 2nd round the Bills would have to give up both 4ths and a 6th. 
 

That would leave Buffalo with 30, 50, 2 5ths , 2 6ths and a 7th just can’t see Beane doing it. 
 

 

What I can see is Buffalo making a move into the 30’s picking up an early 4th or 3rd and than maneuvering up whether for another 3rd or moving up in the 2

Edited March 28 by gonzo1105

[The Wiz]

8 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

If anything, it will be third or lower. Their trade ammo is all lower rounds picks. 

Not if you include next years picks.

 

I think this is the year it happens and are going to take a swing and move up a bunch in the 1st or 2nd or both just to get something that give them immediate returns on the field.  Not gonna say which picks and I know they don't like bargaining the future but I think it's about time they take a swing and see what happens.

Edited March 28 by The Wiz

[WotAGuy]

8 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Not if you include next years picks.

 

I think this is the year it happens and are going to take a swing and move up a bunch in the 1st or 2nd or both just to get something that give them immediate returns on the field.  Not gonna say which picks and I know they don't like bargaining the future but I think it's about time they take a swing and see what happens.

Trading next year’s high picks sounds like a good idea until next year when you realize it wasn’t worth it and you need that pick back.  
 

The draft, even the first round, is too much of a crap shoot to trade future picks. The idea is to keep finding Matt Milanos and Terrel Bernards and make the best of your high picks each year. 
 

The Bills might try to get back into the third this year, but I don’t see them using next year’s picks to do it. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Yes.

IMO Beane’s joking comments about taking WR in every round….

 

he MAY be willing to push chips in 

 

2025 1st, 2nd may be used to move up in 1 or both rounds.

 

Beyond trading for Diggs with a 1st, we’ve never invested premium picks at WR

 

this year is the year with value + need to go after the position very aggressively

 

Beane should approach the draft as if the WR depth chart looks like this

 

Samuel

Shakir 

 

 

Diggs is 50/50 gone between now and next summer.  Hollis is a good depth player short term. Shorter is a ? if he makes the 53

Edited March 28 by Warriorspikes51

[Kirby Jackson]

I think either/both are possible. If one of the big 3 WRs slips to 9, I believe that the Bills are going to try to move all of the way up. If Thomas slips, I could see them trying to go up 7-8 spots. Otherwise I think they stay or go back in the 1st. 
 

I think in the 2nd it will be a defensive player. It could be on the DL or a safety. Depending on the board, they may slide up depending on who slips. If someone like Chop Robinson is on the board in the early ‘40’s, the Bills will be looking to go up.

 

They have 11 picks. They won’t pick more than 7-8 guys at this point. They also won’t hesitate to use future capital to get a potential star. They don’t have enough top of the roster talent.

Edited March 28 by Kirby Jackson

[gonzo1105]

16 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Not if you include next years picks.

 

I think this is the year it happens and are going to take a swing and move up a bunch in the 1st or 2nd or both just to get something that give them immediate returns on the field.  Not gonna say which picks and I know they don't like bargaining the future but I think it's about time they take a swing and see what happens.

I think the 3rd round comp pick was a killer and why Beane is pissed about it because that might have been their plan to get Thomas or Mitchell or a sliding Odunze. That 3r rounder was a valuable trade chip. 
 

I don’t see Beane wanting to give up 60.

 

So we’re looking at 30, a 4th this year a 2025 1st(the equivalent of a 2nd rounder this year to get up to around where the Colts are picking. That is in range for Brian Thomas

 

If you want to get a couple picks higher like the Broncos at 12  you can throw in your 2025 3rd rounder

 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

I think the smart move is to stay pat at 28 or Trade down a little bit from there to try and pick up a 3rd or another 4th that we can use to get back up into the 3rd.

 

The only issue with that is finding a partner that wants to move to 28. Prevailing thought is that the type of guys left at 28 aren't too dissimilar to the types of guys you'd find throughout Round 2. And that the real depth of the Draft is in the 2nd and 3rd tiers that spread multiple rounds.

 

If that's the case, it may not be as easy as the Trade Down crowd makes it out to be to find someone who will give up multiple mid rounders for 1 guy still on the board at the end of Round 1.

 

But, anyways, I think the move up makes more sense in Round 2. Getting a difference maker that can play right away at WR (if we were to go DL in Round 1) or DL (if we were to go WR in Round 1) is a dubious proposition at 60. Probably need to get up to at least the middle of Round 2 to secure someone there.

 

In a perfect world, it's a small trade down from 28 (unless someone has fallen) and then a trade up from 60.

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, WotAGuy said:

Trading next year’s high picks sounds like a good idea until next year when you realize it wasn’t worth it and you need that pick back.  
 

The draft, even the first round, is too much of a crap shoot to trade future picks. The idea is to keep finding Matt Milanos and Terrel Bernards and make the best of your high picks each year. 
 

The Bills might try to get back into the third this year, but I don’t see them using next year’s picks to do it. 

I'm all about them trying to find a "diamond in the rough" but I don't think any of the top 3 WR's are near the same as when we moved up to get Watkins.  I get the feeling that is probably a thing that is causing most people to be weary of the idea of moving up.  But if 2 (1's gets you in that sweet spot.  I'm assuming other late round picks will be included).  Why not go for broke and get one of the top 3 WR's in the draft and a future Diggs replacement that you don't have to worry about paying for 5 years?

 

Could even toss a little spice on it and say trade up in the 1st round (for next years 1st and a 4th this year) and down in the 2nd assuming the 1st was a top flight WR and the 2nd rounder was Polk and gained a late 2nd and another 4th.  Interested then?

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think the 3rd round comp pick was a killer and why Beane is pissed about it because that might have been their plan to get Thomas or Mitchell or a sliding Odunze. That 3r rounder was a valuable trade chip. 
 

I don’t see Beane wanting to give up 60.

 

So we’re looking at 30, a 4th this year a 2025 1st(the equivalent of a 2nd rounder this year to get up to around where the Colts are picking. That is in range for Brian Thomas

 

If you want to get a couple picks higher like the Broncos at 12  you can throw in your 2025 3rd rounder

 

 

The difference between the 3rd and 4th, in terms of draft value is a mid 4th rounder. Basically the NFL took, the equivalent of the 117th pick away from the Bills.

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I think the smart move is to stay pat at 28 or Trade down a little bit from there to try and pick up a 3rd or another 4th that we can use to get back up into the 3rd.

My guess is, if this happens, Baltimore or KC is going to jump us again to get a player we want like they did with McDuffie and hopefully Beane isn't gun-shy about going to get the guy even if it cost him and extra pick or 2.

 

Yes, they can turn that 3rd rounder into something to move up in the 2nd round but they are going to be looking at the bottom of the 2nd tier barrel for WR if they don't get one in the first round (and they don't actually need to use that pick but to move up from 60 to low 40's it might cost them close to that or a combo of picks later on).

 

[Warriorspikes51]

I want both LSU WR’s.  Joe Brady, make it happen!  In all seriousness, believe it’s highly likely we will target them. If Nabers makes it to 6, Beane will call Schoen. We CAN afford a Julio Jones style trade
 

Or, if BTJ makes it to 16, we call Seattle

 

an elite offensive weapon is far and away the biggest need on this team. 

Edited March 28 by Warriorspikes51

[The Wiz]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The difference between the 3rd and 4th, in terms of draft value is a mid 4th rounder. Basically the NFL took, the equivalent of the 117th pick away from the Bills.

Those are the rounds that Beane tends to leverage the best though to get teams to move with them.

[julian]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think either/both are possible. If one of the big 3 WRs slips to 9, I believe that the Bills are going to try to move all of the way up. If Thomas slips, I could see them trying to go up 7-8 spots. Otherwise I think they stay or go back in the 1st. 
 

I think in the 2nd it will be a defensive player. It could be on the DL or a safety. Depending on the board, they may slide up depending on who slips. If someone like Chop Robinson is on the board in the early ‘40’s, the Bills will be looking to go up.

 

They have 11 picks. They won’t pick more than 7-8 guys at this point. They also won’t hesitate to use future capital to get a potential star. They don’t have enough top of the roster talent.

All of this seems to be reasonable and it’s exactly how I’m hoping they attack this draft.

[gonzo1105]

23 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

Trading next year’s high picks sounds like a good idea until next year when you realize it wasn’t worth it and you need that pick back.  
 

The draft, even the first round, is too much of a crap shoot to trade future picks. The idea is to keep finding Matt Milanos and Terrel Bernards and make the best of your high picks each year. 
 

The Bills might try to get back into the third this year, but I don’t see them using next year’s picks to do it. 

If the Bills move up and give up their first next year to move up to the teens to get Brian Thomas they still have: 

 

 

2nd,3rd, 4th, 4th(Davis comp pick), 5th, 5th(Floyd Comp pick), 6th, 6th(Basham trade). I think the Bills could live with that. I don’t think they want to dip beyond that 

[BillsFanForever19]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

My guess is, if this happens, Baltimore or KC is going to jump us again to get a player we want like they did with McDuffie and hopefully Beane isn't gun-shy about going to get the guy even if it cost him and extra pick or 2.

 

Yes, they can turn that 3rd rounder into something to move up in the 2nd round but they are going to be looking at the bottom of the 2nd tier barrel for WR if they don't get one in the first round (and they don't actually need to use that pick but to move up from 60 to low 40's it might cost them close to that or a combo of picks later on).

 

The general feeling I'm getting reading things and listening to people as we get closer is that the first 3 will be gone in the first 7-10 picks and that it's likely that both Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell will be off the board by 28.

 

After that, the feeling is that there's upwards of 5-10 guys that are lumped together in that 3rd Tier that are all very similarly ranked, depending on the type of WR you're looking for.

 

KC is going to get a guy just as we will. Just have to accept that and get over it. You can't let fear that the guy they're going to get may end up better than the guy we're going to get dictate what we do on Draft Day.

 

There's no guarantee that us moving up to take a WR higher than the 28 is going to yield better results than the guy they could get at 32 or later. Especially when that 2nd-3rd Tier of WR is so deep and so close to each other in level of talent per prospect.

 

At Pick 30-40 - you're still going to get a guy worth taking at 28. All of Xavier Worthy, Xavier Legette, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, and Troy Franklin aren't going to all be gone in a small move down. Hell, the guy that Beane prefers there may still be available to him in a small trade down. I have my favorites, but there isn't a ton separating the guy at the top of that list and the bottom, in terms of talent and ceiling level of development.

 

And there isn't a ton separating those guys from guys like Roman Wilson, Malachi Corley, Ja'Lynn Polk, Ricky Pearsall, Tez Walker, and Javon Baker.

 

Long story short, I disagree with the idea of panicking over what KC might get and giving up other assets, especially 60, to take a guy slightly higher rated in prospective projection over the opportunity to add more pieces similarly ranked in rebuilding our roster.

 

If someone like Thomas or Mitchell comes within striking range and Beane really wants him, i'd have no problem with him going to get them. But ideally, you have 3 picks between Day 1 and Day 2 and you use later picks to move around and take 3 guys you really instead of just 2.

 

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I want both LSU WR’s.  Joe Brady, make it happen!  In all seriousness, believe it’s highly likely we will target them. If Nabers makes it to 6, Beane will call Schoen. We CAN afford a Julio Jones style trade
 

Or, if BTJ makes it to 16, we call Seattle

 

an elite offensive weapon is far and away the biggest need on this team. 

 

What I see when I read your millionth unlikely WR scenario post of the day

 

Edited March 29 by BillsFanForever19

[Yantha]

The Bills have 8 draft picks in 2025, and 11 in 2024.  That's a LOT of draft capital.

 

I could see a trade up in BOTH rounds if the conditions were right.

 

And don't forget that we could trade a PLAYER as well.

[SoonerBillsFan]

Trade up in both.

[wolfpack78]

I foresee a trade up if Odunze or Thomas falls within reasonable striking distance.  If that doesn’t happen, then trading back and back up in a separate deals to get two picks in the 30s/40s and come away Leggette and then another WR or DT depending on value.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I want both LSU WR’s.  Joe Brady, make it happen!  In all seriousness, believe it’s highly likely we will target them. If Nabers makes it to 6, Beane will call Schoen. We CAN afford a Julio Jones style trade
 

Or, if BTJ makes it to 16, we call Seattle

 

an elite offensive weapon is far and away the biggest need on this team. 

If Nabers is there for the Giants at 6, don’t you think Schoen and Daboll would want him?

[BillsFanForever19]

33 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

If Nabers is there for the Giants at 6, don’t you think Schoen and Daboll would want him?

 

 

The cost to get the Cardinals or the Giants to:

 

a.) Move from 4 or 6 to 28 (everyone likes to talk about the Julio Trade - that was 15 picks. This is 22-24.)

 

b.) Outmaneuver teams like Minnesota trying to get to the same area for a QB.

 

c.) Get a team that needs WR to pass on a generational talent like MHJ or Nabers....

 

Would be astronomical! This ain't no "just meet the chart and it's done" type of move. The Cardinals and The Giants are either taking a BIG time, impossible to say no to overpay - or they're just taking them for themselves.

 

An absolute waste of breath to even talk about.

[gonzo1105]

37 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

If Nabers is there for the Giants at 6, don’t you think Schoen and Daboll would want him?

If you think there is a large gap between Brian Thomas and the next guy whoever teams believe that is then trade up to the teens and give up your first next year. If you think there is a big drop off after Mitchell(who I believe most think is #5)than wait till Thomas is off the board and start trying to move up for Mitchell

[eee1776]

As upset Bean was at the nfl  not awarding the Bills a 3rd but giving them a 4th instead, I think he trades up to get a late third round pic..

[OldTimer1960]

14 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I'm all about them trying to find a "diamond in the rough" but I don't think any of the top 3 WR's are near the same as when we moved up to get Watkins.  I get the feeling that is probably a thing that is causing most people to be weary of the idea of moving up.  But if 2 (1's gets you in that sweet spot.  I'm assuming other late round picks will be included).  Why not go for broke and get one of the top 3 WR's in the draft and a future Diggs replacement that you don't have to worry about paying for 5 years?

 

Could even toss a little spice on it and say trade up in the 1st round (for next years 1st and a 4th this year) and down in the 2nd assuming the 1st was a top flight WR and the 2nd rounder was Polk and gained a late 2nd and another 4th.  Interested then?

I’m just not interested in trading next year’s picks.  A key injury or falloff from the D and next year’s pick could be top half of the first. Trading that away this year, it will be valued as a late 2nd.

 

If it was a team looking for franchise QB, I understand.  Otherwise, I’m not interested.  I’ll admit that doesn’t make me necessarily right, but seems a steep price for a wr when they need talent elsewhere as well.

[frostbitmic]

I could see trading both 4th round picks to get into the third and trade two of the 5th round picks to get back into the 4th.

[Royale with Cheese]

I am starting to get the feeling that Beane gets aggressive and we make a trade to be the biggest story of the draft.  

Our 1st round picks are always in the mid 20's and later.  Those are harder and harder to find playmaking difference makers.  Yes it does happen but it's not often.

 

Use those picks to move up high and get the guy that can be the Marvin Harrison to Peyton Manning.

Subliminal message in there....

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I am starting to get the feeling that Beane gets aggressive and we make a trade to be the biggest story of the draft.  

Our 1st round picks are always in the mid 20's and later.  Those are harder and harder to find playmaking difference makers.  Yes it does happen but it's not often.

 

Use those picks to move up high and get the guy that can be the Marvin Harrison to Peyton Manning.

Subliminal message in there....

It sure has that “feel” to me too. They’ve basically filled out the roster but left “X” receiver blank. I don’t know if they’ll be able to get higher than 9 but could see them going “all in” on one of the big 3. That’ll give the Bills one of football’s best rosters. It’ll give Josh Allen football’s best weapons. I just don’t know if one of those 3 will make it far enough. 

[gonzo1105]

44 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I could see trading both 4th round picks to get into the third and trade two of the 5th round picks to get back into the 4th.

The problem with this theory is both of the Bills 4th rounders are at the end of round 4 and do not have the combined value to get a 3rd. Their pics equal 84.5 points or the equivalent of pick 105 

[nosejob]

14 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

If the Bills move up and give up their first next year to move up to the teens to get Brian Thomas they still have: 

 

 

2nd,3rd, 4th, 4th(Davis comp pick), 5th, 5th(Floyd Comp pick), 6th, 6th(Basham trade). I think the Bills could live with that. I don’t think they want to dip beyond that 

I'm looking at it a little differently. Sure use next years 1st,but do it to get a 2nd and 3rd. There are a few teams with 2 of both. If I'm moving up in the 1st, it's only gonna be a couple of spots where I can use a 4th.

[OldTimer1960]

30 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

The problem with this theory is both of the Bills 4th rounders are at the end of round 4 and do not have the combined value to get a 3rd. Their pics equal 84.5 points or the equivalent of pick 105 

That’s right, but they would get you near the top of the 4th which in practice isn’t much different than late 3rd. 
 

I do think moving up in later rounds where those late picks can move the needle up more than a couple spots is the best play.

17 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I'm looking at it a little differently. Sure use next years 1st,but do it to get a 2nd and 3rd. There are a few teams with 2 of both. If I'm moving up in the 1st, it's only gonna be a couple of spots where I can use a 4th.

I don’t think you will get both a 2nd and 3rd this year for next year’s first.  I think you’ll get a late 2nd.

[Bill from NYC]

Whatever round they can get what they think is better value on a corner or a safety would seem to be the most likely.

[gonzo1105]

21 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I'm looking at it a little differently. Sure use next years 1st,but do it to get a 2nd and 3rd. There are a few teams with 2 of both. If I'm moving up in the 1st, it's only gonna be a couple of spots where I can use a 4th.

A next years first round pick is seen as a 2nd round pick in the given year. Someone may give you a 2nd but you won’t get the 3rd as well 

[YattaOkasan]

I think its 4th or 5th rounds.  Trade back to get a 3rd seems more likely than ever.  Then bundle picks to maximize number of picks in the top 100.  we could get good talent at multiple positions that could use an investment (WR, T, iOL, DT, DE, CB, S).  DE is really the tricky one cause it sorta needs a first round pick to have a good shot at providing impact. Commanders 40 and 78 for 28 and 144 seems pretty good for me.  Then we could have 40, 60, 78 with 128 and 133 as opportunities to move up if you bundle late picks.  

[Mat68]

I could see any round.  I think Rd 2 is more likley.  They will be aggressive to get the WR or DE they covet.  I expect they go WR and DE first two picks.  Not sure in what order.

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m just not interested in trading next year’s picks.  A key injury or falloff from the D and next year’s pick could be top half of the first. Trading that away this year, it will be valued as a late 2nd.

 

If it was a team looking for franchise QB, I understand.  Otherwise, I’m not interested.  I’ll admit that doesn’t make me necessarily right, but seems a steep price for a wr when they need talent elsewhere as well.

Yea , but Bills really need some WRs. One X who hopefully can replace Diggs in short order and a burner with hands

 Not ready to mortgage the farm , but I trust Beanes to maneuver accordingly

We arent getting any of the top 3 WRs. The 1st Bills WR might well come off the board in the second round , So get the One you want

[papazoid]

normally i would say more likely to move up in first......but losing that 3rd round comp pick threw a wrench in beane's plan.

 

currently bills pick #28th. if we used our 2nd round pick (which is highly UNlikely) we could move up 11 spots, all the way to #17 (jax).

 

if we used a 4th round pick....you can move up 2 spots in the first (not much, but possible). a 3rd would have moved up 5 spots.

 

there is so much value in a 2nd round pick (talent/cap hit)...i cant see beane giving that away....if he did it would only be for a WR1 (preparing for life after diggs).

 

this year id say beane tries to use both his 4th's to move up in each of 1st & 2nd (BPA - WR1, EDGE, OL).....but stays at #28

[Warriorspikes51]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I am starting to get the feeling that Beane gets aggressive and we make a trade to be the biggest story of the draft.  

Our 1st round picks are always in the mid 20's and later.  Those are harder and harder to find playmaking difference makers.  Yes it does happen but it's not often.

 

Use those picks to move up high and get the guy that can be the Marvin Harrison to Peyton Manning.

Subliminal message in there....

 

I believe that too.  Him joking about taking a WR in every round is a tell IMO.   

 

I know he usually sticks to smaller moves up in the 1st,  but I suspect he may be on a mission to actually stack the offense.   

 

I don't expect it to be MHJ, unless he makes it past pick 5 which is extremely unlikely.

 

NYG at 6 for Nabers   (28, 60, 2025 1st, 3rd)

CHI at 9 for Nabers / Odunze  (28, 2025 1st, 4th)
DEN at 12 for  Odunze / BTJ  (28, 2025 1st)
SEA at 16 for BTJ   (28, 128, 133, 160 for 16, 78 - we get our 3rd back) 

That said, if the Cardinals at 4 are willing to accept 28, 60, 2025 1st, 2nd and maybe a 4th....then I'm in for MHJ

Edited March 29 by Warriorspikes51

[OldTimer1960]

52 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Yea , but Bills really need some WRs. One X who hopefully can replace Diggs in short order and a burner with hands

 Not ready to mortgage the farm , but I trust Beanes to maneuver accordingly

We arent getting any of the top 3 WRs. The 1st Bills WR might well come off the board in the second round , So get the One you want

I think 1 WR is what they will reasonably draft.  If they keep all of their late round picks, then maybe a second Wr will be picked.  They have 3 pretty good ones now in Diggs, Samuel and it appears an emerging Shakir.  I’m sure they would like a bigger body to play the boundary and I’m guessing that’s what they will do.  So, that would leave them with 4 that they would seem to like.  They signed Hollins to play Special Teams and backup outside and they have Justin Shorter coming back to try to make the team.  If they take a second Wr in the draft, that guy likely won’t see the field and would have to have value on special teams.

 

You could be right, but I don’t think the cupboard is as bare as many seem to think.

[BullBuchanan]

20 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

Neither. To move up 10 spots in the 2nd round the Bills would have to give up both 4ths and a 6th. 
 

That would leave Buffalo with 30, 50, 2 5ths , 2 6ths and a 7th just can’t see Beane doing it. 
 

 

What I can see is Buffalo making a move into the 30’s picking up an early 4th or 3rd and than maneuvering up whether for another 3rd or moving up in the 2

I can. We do these terrible draft day maneuvers to move up or down a handful of spots. Whenever we move up it seems we have to overpay and whenever we move down it seems we get the minimum.

We gave up a 4th rounder to move up two spots to select Elam, Moved back twice in the second round for a total of 6 spots getting two 6th round picks.
We gave up a 4th rounder to move up two spots to get Kincaid. Even though it looks like he'll be a good player, i still hate that value.

If two 6th round picks can get you 6 spots int he second round, just try to do that or move up int he 3rd every year. If we can get 3 starting caliber players out of a draft and once in a while get one stud every two years, that's a good standard bar. If we want to build a SB roster while paying a $55M cap hit for a QB, we're gonna need 3 studs every two years.