Dalton Kincaid Rookie Stats, reprise

[Beck Water]

Chandler's post of his scouting assessment/highlight film got me looking for the "predict his stats" thread from last June, found here:

Apologies for 2 Kincaid threads on the board at once, but since I put a good bit of work into this and it references an old thread, I thought it deserved its own play.  Mods, if you disagree and merge, I won't be salty.

 

Since I'm trying to learn the stats functions in LibreOffice, I decided to tablulate.  Did the first 10 pages of a 14 page thread because I ran out of room on the paper I jotted things on.  Eliminated obvious jokesters and incomplete predictions.

 

Average prediction: 52 receptions, 551 yds, 6 TD

Standard deviation: +/- 19 receptions, 252 yds, 2 TD

Range: 9-109 receptions, 108-1376 yds, 2-13 TD (and yes, I did eliminate a couple of obvious jokesters, the outlandish ones I included seemed serious)

 

Dalton's actual stats: 73 receptions, 673 yds, 2 TD.  So "on average" he exceeded expectations except in the matter of TD. 

He played 63% of offensive snaps.

 

Special mention to @NewEra, @Kirby Jackson, and especially @KingBoots8 who nailed his catches and yards almost exactly.  I will give their judgement a little *bump* in my mind going forward:

 

On 6/12/2023 at 9:06 AM, NewEra said:

If he plays 70%+ of the snaps:

86-886-8

 

if they try and get Harty and Sherfield a decent share of reps and Kincaid plays <60%: 68- 688- 6

 

Hall of Fame 

 

 

 

On 6/12/2023 at 4:13 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

68 catches

680 yards

6 TDs

 

I did 4 catches and 40 yards a game. I also figured a TD every 3 games. Those numbers feel realistic to me.

 

On 6/30/2023 at 1:38 PM, KingBoots8 said:

71 catches on 82 Targets
686 yards, 5 TD.

 

and a special raspberry to a guy who is either Eyore as a Bills fan, or a troll, @KDIGGZ for his take.

Calibrate everything he says on this board accordingly.

 

On 6/12/2023 at 7:44 AM, KDIGGZ said:

He won't even be on the field for more than a handful of plays per game the entire first half of the season. Anyone who thinks he has more than 500 yards receiving is dreaming. My hope is that they will use him as a RedZone target and that's where his value will come from. His stats will probably be like 325 yards receiving but hopefully 5 or more TD's and hopefully some flashes so there's something to build on for next year. But don't count on it. Check Shakir's stats from last year if you want to get an idea of how they value rookie pass catchers on this team 

Edited March 21 by Beck Water

[Royale with Cheese]

Lets bring this back up.  @NewEra @FireChans

 

On 6/11/2023 at 10:22 PM, FireChans said:

31 catches, 375 yards, 1 TD. 

 

On 6/12/2023 at 9:55 AM, NewEra said:

I’ll bet the over on all 3.  My $200 to your $50

 

didn’t think so. 
 

🧌 

 

On 6/12/2023 at 10:49 AM, FireChans said:

You didn’t let me respond!

If he doesn’t hit the over on all three, I win 200? That’s easy money lol

 

On 6/12/2023 at 12:21 PM, NewEra said:

Yup-  31 catches, 375 yards, 1 TD.  13 games played minimum. I got the over on all 3.  My $200 to your $50

 

On 6/12/2023 at 12:37 PM, FireChans said:

Deal

 

[Beck Water]

17 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Lets bring this back up.  @NewEra @FireChans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wasn't gonna go there but since you did - @NewEra did @FireChans pay up?

[ngbills]

His numbers did benefit from Knox missing a lot of time.

[Royale with Cheese]

50 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I wasn't gonna go there but since you did - @NewEra did @FireChans pay up?

 

@FireChans?

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Lets bring this back up.  @NewEra @FireChans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

54 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I wasn't gonna go there but since you did - @NewEra did @FireChans pay up?

 

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

@FireChans?

Of course I did. Appreciate the fandom, though.

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

 

Of course I did. Appreciate the fandom, though.

 

Any attention is good attention.

[Beck Water]

55 minutes ago, ngbills said:

His numbers did benefit from Knox missing a lot of time.

 

Knox did miss 5 games and was arguably playing hampered in a couple where he did take snaps.

 

But, for the games Knox played, his R/G and Y/G were career lows.

 

And, in his 5 year career, Knox has never broken 50 receptions or 600 yds per season.

[Jon in Pasadena]

DK also missed the Giants game, I believe, while recovering from the concussion he got in the ***** London game.

He very likely would have gone over 700yds receiving for the season if he played that game.

[Sweats]

You want to know what i think?!?.........go check out the other Kincaid thread.

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, Jon in Pasadena said:

DK also missed the Giants game, I believe, while recovering from the concussion he got in the ***** London game.

He very likely would have gone over 700yds receiving for the season if he played that game.

 

You are correct!  Damn, I hated that London game.  They had us play on crappy turf over cement, with no fill, and we had injuries in droves.

 

1 minute ago, Sweats said:

You want to know what i think?!?.

 

Not really.  Meaning no offense, but is there a reason I should want to know?

Edited March 21 by Beck Water

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I wasn't gonna go there but since you did - @NewEra did @FireChans pay up?

He did.  Prompt and professional.  
 

But let’s talk about his prediction…. 🤣 

31-375-1-  ffs.  If that’s not a troll take, I don’t know what is.  

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

His numbers did benefit from Knox missing a lot of time.

Knox will be missing alot more time June 1st, 2025. Other than just 2 tds, I was happy with his numbers and expect them to go up this season.

[KingBoots8]

Not gonna lie, I forgot what I predicted but I was pretty shocked he only had 2 TD’s. I definitely felt like it was more for some reason. 
 

Interested to see who we draft this year. I like watching the film after the draft and seeing where the pieces fit together. Not sure I want to make another prediction just yet for Kincaid, but I would expect the numbers to be similar. Knox has seniority and will get his snaps in for sure.

 

Dorsey to Brady changed his usage a little. Could have been adjusting to the coaching changes, but after a decent game vs Denver his yardage and targets took a steady hit for about a month. He had 1 game with 0 receptions and another right after with 1 reception for 7 yards. He also scored both regular season touchdowns before Brady was the OC (but did score one against the Steelers in the playoffs). He ended the year strong with 2 great games, and performed well in 2 playoff games. He also missed 1 game during the first half of the season where my numbers may have been a little further off had he played. 

A good start to what I believe is a great player. Excited for him to take another step this season.

Edited March 21 by KingBoots8

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

He did.  Prompt and professional.  
 

But let’s talk about his prediction…. 🤣 

31-375-1-  ffs.  If that’s not a troll take, I don’t know what is.  

 

Good to know!

 

Well.... there was a "take" of 9-108-9 (that was serious - another joked 'in the playoffs").  There were a couple of takes of about or less than 300 yds - 312, 297, 230 along with 26, 32, and 28 receptions.

And another similar take of 35-375-2.  

 

Some of them were troll takes, but a couple were, I think, just based on supposedly McDermott "holds back" rookies and stubbornly refuses to play them even when they're fantasmagorical.

 

Which I don't think is true - with a good team, rookies play when they play well enough to displace the veteran ahead of them, not just for the sake of putting them out there and getting them snaps.

 

Then of course there were some serious, but outlandish takes on the high side in addition to a couple of jokesters.

 

And, I learned what the stats functions are called and how to sort data in Libreoffice, so I got what I came for.

[Shaw66]

I have a lot of confidence in Beane and McDermott in player selection.   They have a very good understanding of the kind of players they need at each position, and they do a good job at figuring out which available players fit.  (That's what's so shocking about Elam.)

 

I think they knew exactly what they were getting in Kincaid and how they were going to use him.  I think people who thought he would be below 500 yards misperceived how good McDermott and Beane are at this.  Receivers don't have huge trouble transitioning from college to the pros, so it was more or less a no-brainer that Kincaid would play a lot and catch a lot of balls.  That's what they got him for, and they knew he could do it. 

 

As I said in the other thread, I think he needs to bulk up a bit.   Mostly what I think he needs to improve is his route running, particularly as plays break down.  I mean, he runs all those short routes pretty nicely, but he still has work to do connecting with Allen.  The guys who play close to the QB - the tight ends and slot guys - can become really valuable when they develop a high level of communication with the QB, like we see with Kelce and Mahomes, and like we saw with Allen and Beasley.  I think Kincaid has more to learn and will benefit from another year with Allen.  I also think he'll benefit if Brady is as creative as we hope. 

[FireChans]

25 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He did.  Prompt and professional.  
 

But let’s talk about his prediction…. 🤣 

31-375-1-  ffs.  If that’s not a troll take, I don’t know what is.  

You were 1 TD away from losing and gave me 4 to 1 odds. I’d take it again.

 

If Knox didn’t get hurt, and Dorsey doesn’t get fired, who knows?

Edited March 21 by FireChans

[Low Positive]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I have a lot of confidence in Beane and McDermott in player selection.   They have a very good understanding of the kind of players they need at each position, and they do a good job at figuring out which available players fit.  (That's what's so shocking about Elam.)

 

I think they knew exactly what they were getting in Kincaid and how they were going to use him.  I think people who thought he would be below 500 yards misperceived how good McDermott and Beane are at this.  Receivers don't have huge trouble transitioning from college to the pros, so it was more or less a no-brainer that Kincaid would play a lot and catch a lot of balls.  That's what they got him for, and they knew he could do it. 

 

As I said in the other thread, I think he needs to bulk up a bit.   Mostly what I think he needs to improve is his route running, particularly as plays break down.  I mean, he runs all those short routes pretty nicely, but he still has work to do connecting with Allen.  The guys who play close to the QB - the tight ends and slot guys - can become really valuable when they develop a high level of communication with the QB, like we see with Kelce and Mahomes, and like we saw with Allen and Beasley.  I think Kincaid has more to learn and will benefit from another year with Allen.  I also think he'll benefit if Brady is as creative as we hope. 

There is an incorrect narrative on this board that “McDermott doesn’t play rookies,” all stemming from the Elam situation, that drives a lot of those takes.

[Sweats]

34 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You are correct!  Damn, I hated that London game.  They had us play on crappy turf over cement, with no fill, and we had injuries in droves.

 

 

Not really.  Meaning no offense, but is there a reason I should want to know?

 

 

 

Here's what i think....

 

We've basically only used him for dump-offs or as an outlet, so it's hard to see the full extent of what he can do on the field, however, the FO has a gem on their hands and they should figure out how to implement him more into our O.

Also, i doubt Kincaid will ever be an offensive focal point, such as a Gronk, a Kelce, a Kittle, etc..... but with more development, he should come into his own and be a plyer that teams will definitely have to game plan for every week.

 

And now you know.

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

There is an incorrect narrative on this board that “McDermott doesn’t play rookies,” all stemming from the Elam situation, that drives a lot of those takes.

I used to believe that take, too.   I think it was true, but I think as the team has grown, things have changed.   One thing McDermott and Beane said when they got here, something that I didn't understand, and I still don't understand, is that as players learn the system and come back for year two, they play at higher level and learn more.  Collectively, the team's intelligence and understanding of the system grows from year to year.   There is a team learning curve, and somehow the veterans pull the newcomers up the curve, so that things it took Poyer and Hyde years to learn, for example, are learned by Hamlin and the like in a year or two.  I don't understand how that works, but it apparently does.  The result is that when the team was playing at a lower level, it was harder for rookies to get into the lineup, because the veterans were still working their own way up the learning curve.   Now that the team has matured, it gets easier. to pull guys along.  So, Kincaid and Torrence both walked into camp and pretty quickly were able to play with the vets.  

 

It's what we saw with the Patriots.   Year after year, some guy would get injured for the Patriots and some rookie you've never heard of would move into the lineup and play just fine.  Why?   Because Belichick's system somehow worked to have the vets pull the rookies up to their level.  

 

It's a beautiful thing.  

 

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Low Positive said:

There is an incorrect narrative on this board that “McDermott doesn’t play rookies,” all stemming from the Elam situation, that drives a lot of those takes.

 

I don't think it stems from the Elam situation.  I think it stems from fan frustration with players who weren't really pulling their weight (example: McKenzie as a slot receiver) and having seen a few flashes from Shakir, feeling he was so much better and it was just the coaches being stupid to not play him, instead of observing his drop rate and his low catch % and apparent route running mistakes and having a little faith that the coaches, professionals, might actually make better decisions than we fans.

[Freddie's Dead]

I was way off at 40, 450, 4.  I feel shame.

[Augie]

18 minutes ago, Freddie&#x27;s Dead said:

I was way off at 40, 450, 4.  I feel shame.

 

Don’t feel bad, I had him as the Super Bowl MVP. We both missed, but I might have been a bit overly optimistic.  

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

You were 1 TD away from losing and gave me 4 to 1 odds. I’d take it again.

 

If Knox didn’t get hurt, and Dorsey doesn’t get fired, who knows?

If, if, if, if.  If Trent Sherfield caught that pass vs KC.  If Dawkins held his block vs Chris Jones
 

you guessed less than half of his receptions, just over half of his yards and half of his Tds.  

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

If, if, if, if.  If Trent Sherfield caught that pass vs KC.  If Dawkins held his block vs Chris Jones
 

you guessed less than half of his receptions, just over half of his yards and half of his Tds.  

Half of 2 is 1. 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Half of 2 is 1. 

Yes…..that’s half, like I said.

 

And half of 73 is 36.5.  You said 31.  31….. 

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Knox will be missing alot more time June 1st, 2025. Other than just 2 tds, I was happy with his numbers and expect them to go up this season.

Kincaid showed a weakness on YAC (or it is Allen's throwing style),  All short yardage redzone TDs went to Allen or Murray.   Cook with ability to get YAC was a more better option in the Red Zone. 

Edited March 22 by ganesh

[hondo in seattle]

8 hours ago, Freddie&#x27;s Dead said:

I was way off at 40, 450, 4.  I feel shame.

 

Yeah, me too.  44, 444, 4.  

[transient]

11 hours ago, Low Positive said:

There is an incorrect narrative on this board that “McDermott doesn’t play rookies,” all stemming from the Elam situation, that drives a lot of those takes.

I'd argue he was pretty conservative with Cook his first year, as well... and he was also a total dick about his handling of him after Cook fumbled on the first snap of his NFL career... which probably didn't help his confidence any. 

[Freddie's Dead]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Yeah, me too.  44, 444, 4.  

 

[Nelius]

73 receptions as a rookie is pretty nasty. Kincaid is the future, 100+ soon enough.

[Richard Noggin]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I have a lot of confidence in Beane and McDermott in player selection.   They have a very good understanding of the kind of players they need at each position, and they do a good job at figuring out which available players fit.  (That's what's so shocking about Elam.)

 

I think they knew exactly what they were getting in Kincaid and how they were going to use him.  I think people who thought he would be below 500 yards misperceived how good McDermott and Beane are at this.  Receivers don't have huge trouble transitioning from college to the pros, so it was more or less a no-brainer that Kincaid would play a lot and catch a lot of balls.  That's what they got him for, and they knew he could do it. 

 

As I said in the other thread, I think he needs to bulk up a bit.   Mostly what I think he needs to improve is his route running, particularly as plays break down.  I mean, he runs all those short routes pretty nicely, but he still has work to do connecting with Allen.  The guys who play close to the QB - the tight ends and slot guys - can become really valuable when they develop a high level of communication with the QB, like we see with Kelce and Mahomes, and like we saw with Allen and Beasley.  I think Kincaid has more to learn and will benefit from another year with Allen.  I also think he'll benefit if Brady is as creative as we hope. 

 

While I'll generally agree that NFL players need to "bulk up a bit" from year one to year two, and "receiving" TEs especially usually need to improve core strength to become more consistent blockers, there is always the annoying example of KC's elite TE who at least APPEARS not to spend much time in the weight room relative to other football players. Maybe there is wisdom in eschewing NFL body building norms, with respect to injury prevention? Total outlier, of course, but compelling and frustrating nonetheless. 

 

Kincaid had a fairly significant back injury in college. I wonder if much of the olympic power lifting used to build core strength is unwise for a guy like him?

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

While I'll generally agree that NFL players need to "bulk up a bit" from year one to year two, and "receiving" TEs especially usually need to improve core strength to become more consistent blockers, there is always the annoying example of KC's elite TE who at least APPEARS not to spend much time in the weight room relative to other football players. Maybe there is wisdom in eschewing NFL body building norms, with respect to injury prevention? Total outlier, of course, but compelling and frustrating nonetheless. 

 

Kincaid had a fairly significant back injury in college. I wonder if much of the olympic power lifting used to build core strength is unwise for a guy like him?

Thanks for this.  I don't know anything about strength building and conditioning, so I certainly won't argue with anything you say here.  

 

My comments were based only on my impressions looking at the guy.  He seems a little undersized for a tight end.  Now, of course, his current size allows him to be more mobile than the average tight end, so I don't know if added weight would make him less effective.   Knox isn't your quintessential blocking tight end, but he has a body that seems to be more of the prototype for modern tight ends, and I think it might help Kincaid to build himself up to be at least a bit more like Knox. 

 

I also think a lot of guys come out of college not having built their strength particularly well.   Linemen, particularly, often get to the NFL needing a year or two of learning technique and body building.  I don't know for a fact, but I think there's a big difference between the programs that Alabama, Ohio State and a few other schools run and the programs run by a lot of the other schools.  Kincaid walked on at San Diego State after being primarily a basketball player, and transferred to Utah, which is a nice program but not elite.  So, I wouldn't be surprised if pro weight trainers in Orchard Park looked at him concluded that they could put him on a program that might add weight, or at least redistribute it, and build strength.  They didn't have time to do that in his rookie year; this off-season was the first window they had.  

 

As for Kelce, well, every player is different.   However, according to listed weights, Kelce carries the ten pounds that I think Kincaid might add.  

 

Bottom line for me is that I don't worry about it.   The Bills and Kincaid will figure out what they think is best for him, and he'll work himself into the condition, including weight and strength, that they think is best.  

[MJS]

I predicted:

 

"645 yards, 5 TD's

 

The bulk of that coming in the 2nd half of the season when he ramps up to more playing time."

 

Not too shabby. I didn't predict receptions, though.

[Don Otreply]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

Half of 2 is 1. 

Brilliant!! 😂

[Beck Water]

15 hours ago, ganesh said:

Kincaid showed a weakness on YAC (or it is Allen's throwing style),  All short yardage redzone TDs went to Allen or Murray.   Cook with ability to get YAC was a more better option in the Red Zone. 

 

If Kincaid showed a weakness in YAC, why are YAC 46% of his receiving yards?

 

Yes, running backs are better at running (including running after the catch) that's why they're running backs.

[Chicken Boo]

I was expecring about 350-450 yards and less than 50 receptions.

 

A pleasant surprise, the amount of usage he got.  

 

I expect 80+ receptions and around 1,000 yards this season.  

 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

If Kincaid showed a weakness in YAC, why are YAC 46% of his receiving yards?

 

Yes, running backs are better at running (including running after the catch) that's why they're running backs.

He was 18th among TE’s in YAC/reception. 84th among all eligible NFL players.

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

While I'll generally agree that NFL players need to "bulk up a bit" from year one to year two, and "receiving" TEs especially usually need to improve core strength to become more consistent blockers, there is always the annoying example of KC's elite TE who at least APPEARS not to spend much time in the weight room relative to other football players. Maybe there is wisdom in eschewing NFL body building norms, with respect to injury prevention? Total outlier, of course, but compelling and frustrating nonetheless. 

 

Kincaid had a fairly significant back injury in college. I wonder if much of the olympic power lifting used to build core strength is unwise for a guy like him?

 

Core strength can be built in many ways without olympic power lifting.  I know we got guys here who are personal trainers and really into this stuff, hopefully they will speak up.

 

I will also say there's a big difference between having a "dad bod" like Kelce does and "not spending much time in the weight room".  Being "cut" is a lot about having low body fat percentage.  NFL linemen on both sides will say you can be strong AF and not cut because it's covered with a nice fat cushion.

 

OK, last point: Gabe Davis is not very big, but a very effective blocker.  I have been told that a lot of blocking is in the head before the ball is snapped, and then in technique and leverage afterwards.  Anyone who watched FredEx just TEAKETTLE JJ Watt in his prime or Jordan Poyer throw an OLman 3 feet backwards on one of the Bills "guess who is blitzing?" packages should probably get this.

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

He was 18th among TE’s in YAC/reception. 84th among all eligible NFL players.

 

OK, where was he in Y/R?

 

Because the real question with Y/R is "depending on how the guy's being used, how much of what's there is he getting?"  A number of the TE ahead of Kincaid were being used as "big wide recievers" and/or had higher YBC as well, because they were being thrown to more downfield, instead of as Kincaid was used most of the season very close to the LOS.