Bills windows with Josh

[Mr. WEO]

8 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Add one more BONAFIDE offensive threat to the Bills offense and watch Josh lead this team to a SB

 

Andy Reid?

[Chaos]

I hope the Bills win it all next year. In my heart of hearts I don't think there is a Josh Allen window until there is a new head coach that understands how to optimize Allen. 

[nedboy7]

If you come here daily to complain about McD maybe you should slam a window on your head. 

[Augie]

32 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

If you come here daily to complain about McD maybe you should slam a window on your head. 

 

You might want to throw a j/k in there, so as to avoid being blamed later. 

[LABILLBACKER]

I think we will have (20) 1 year windows with Josh.

[dayman]

Talk of windows being nonexistent identifies posters that have no brain. Let me help the brainless (although I’d rather not):

 

Window — a period of time where peak roster construction is in place.

 

We were just in one but didn’t capitalize largely due to catastrophic injuries on defense. This topic is about how to adjust moving forward given that age and cap now disrupt our core roster moving forward.

 

Anyone with a brain that follows sports sees teams make aggressive moves when they’re close (e.g. us signing Von at his age and price). This is window behavior. The Von contract itself proves windows exist.
 

Windows exist. You dumbasses. 

 

 

Edited February 16 by dayman

[JimBob2232]

We're watching one of the best QBs to EVER play the game.  Probably top 10-15 by the end of his career.   Enjoy it.  

[HappyDays]

I don't know where else to put this but we have the most clutch QB in the NFL:

 

But as the tweet says we also have the least clutch team in the NFL. Our window will officially be open whenever McDermott and Beane rise to the occasion or we find a better pair.

[Trev]

2 hours ago, JimBob2232 said:

We're watching one of the best QBs to EVER play the game.  Probably top 10-15 by the end of his career.   Enjoy it.  

If he’s the best qb ever, theres a ton of room for improvement. 

[Bills!Win!]

Why are the Chiefs able to have Mahomes, Kelce, Jones etc but they’re not in “salary cap hell” 

 

I don’t get it

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, dayman said:

Talk of windows being nonexistent identifies posters that have no brain. Let me help the brainless (although I’d rather not):

 

Window — a period of time where peak roster construction is in place.

 

We were just in one but didn’t capitalize largely due to catastrophic injuries on defense. This topic is about how to adjust moving forward given that age and cap now disrupt our core roster moving forward.

 

Anyone with a brain that follows sports sees teams make aggressive moves when they’re close (e.g. us signing Von at his age and price). This is window behavior. The Von contract itself proves windows exist.
 

Windows exist. You dumbasses. 

 

 

Excuse me.  This is both wrong and inappropriate.  

 

The fact that a word has a definition - like the definition of window above, does not prove that windows exist or are a viable roster strategy.  Flat Earth is the concept that the earth is shaped like a disk, but the fact that there is a term for the concept doesn't prove the existence of that concept, either.  

 

The windows that you're talking about naturally occurring.  They occur by design of the GM, who tries to make their team succeed by acquiring a lot of talent, all arriving at the franchise at more or less the same time.  Modern NFL GMs rarely operate their team that way these days, because the draft and the salary cap work so well that it's essentially impossible to out-talent the rest of the league.  Baseball teams sometimes have tried to do it intentionally by tanking to accumulate multiple years of high first round picks, unloading talented veterans for more picks or just to stockpile money, then race to the top on the backs of young talent that the team won't re-sign to monster contracts.   It just isn't an effective model in the NFL.

 

One place where it happens occasionally is when the team hits on a rookie QB who is so good so young that the team has a window with a lot of cap room.   But that doesn't happen very often.  

 

The Bills signing Von Miller was not window behavior, because Von Miller was signed to a long-term contract that was designed to give the Bills a great edge for at least three years and as much as six.  That's building a team, not loading up on talent for the short-run.  Beyond that, the notion of "window behavior" is bogus.  What you're talking about is behavior like the Rams acquiring Miller the year before or signing OBJ.  That doesn't mean the Rams had a strategy based on windows and rebuilds.  The Rams expect to be good year after year.  All those signing represented was something that Beane says he would do, too, which is that if the team is having a good regular season run and looks like it could win it all, then he'll do whatever he can to get additional talent on the team.  So, for example, when the Bills were 6-6, Beane was not going to run out and get a special player on a one-year (or less) rental.  If they're 10-2 next season, he might.  

 

The Bills have been built, intentionally, to compete for championships every year, year after year, and to reload talent in such a way that the team doesn't have peaks and valleys with talent.  That is exactly what McBeane described when they first got to Buffalo. 

 

What's worse than the fact that you were wrong, however, is your attitude and the tone with which you address the rest of us.  We are not "brainless" (far from it) and we are not "dumbasses."    

[Shaw66]

59 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

Why are the Chiefs able to have Mahomes, Kelce, Jones etc but they’re not in “salary cap hell” 

 

I don’t get it

The Bills are not in salary cap hell.   The salary cap is a collection of rules that GMs have learned to manage in ways that preserve their ability to sign new talent every year.   The rules require certain accountings, and depending on the time of year that we look at the accounting, some teams look like they're in better position than others.   However, if the GM of your team knows what he's doing, he always has the room he needs to make the kind of moves he needs to make.  Beane knows what he's doing.  

 

Now, in some years will a team have more cap room than others?   Sure, but the cap properly managed, every year there's enough room to manage the roster properly.  Beane has been clear that he will not mortgage the future, because his objective is to be good every season, not to overspend on talent because he thinks the Bills are in a window.

[skibum]

Hey, even Brady had a 9-year SB drought in his prime.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

18 hours ago, ddaryl said:

There is no reason to believe we only have a 3-5 year window with Josh. I see no reason why Josh can not continue to play at a high enough level till he's 40 years old barring major injury(s). He's proven to be durable, as well as a damn QB who continues to break records.

I hope your right but QBs that play like Josh don't last playing at a high level past 35. We seen Cam break down at 30. So unless Josh changes his game and becomes more of a pocket passer it's more then likely he won't play till 38-40 

[BananaB]

7 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:

Why are the Chiefs able to have Mahomes, Kelce, Jones etc but they’re not in “salary cap hell” 

 

I don’t get it

They play their rookies instead of bringing in vets that will keep them on the bench. 

[ProcessTruster]

W 59 L25  past 5 seasons says it all.   When you're winning 7 out of 10 games I am a happy guy.   They'll get the breaks/stay healthy enough to get through the silly TV $$ driven single elimination tournament once or twice I suppose.  Don't really care when it is.   Give me a consistent winning program and that goes a long way.   You'll get your SB tee shirt at some point.  

[ddaryl]

3 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I hope your right but QBs that play like Josh don't last playing at a high level past 35. We seen Cam break down at 30. So unless Josh changes his game and becomes more of a pocket passer it's more then likely he won't play till 38-40 

 

 

What happened to Cam wasn't because he was running to much. He actually hurt his shoulder trying to make a tackle after throwing an INT

Josh could get injured and fall off a cliff, its possible, but he has also proven to be quite durable. I view Josh as a QB who play well into his 30s, but no there is never a guarentee in football.

[Kaenon]

Our window with Josh last another 14-16 years.

We're early in this.

He's what, 27?

Brady won his last Superbowl at what, 43?

[Matt_In_NH]

23 hours ago, 26TrapDraw said:

Wish I shared your enthusiasm. We are in salary csp hell and there needs to be several moves made before this team can get over the hump and compete.

 

The perception that you have to have a bunch of high priced guys to win the SB is false.  Draft develop and be careful/judicial about how many guys you re-sign.  The flaw with this team is they think they have to re-sign everyone they draft and contributes

 

The whole "window" term is manufactured by the loud mouths on TV and internet and so overused and then the fans use it excessively like its a thing with all teams.

[colin]

19 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

They have got 18 of their 22 starters under contract for 2024  ( 19 if you include Miller)…

 

The other ones missing are Davis, Hyde and DQJ….

 

Yes there is work to be done, and Beane needs to have a good offseason … the DL and Safety positions need to be reworked to the same extent he did last year with the OL…

 

But they still have a lot of good pieces in place, and I’d be expecting them once again to be the heavyweights of the division and knocking on the 1 seeds door for 2024 …

 

 

that's a really good point to emphasize.

 

we are in an awful cap/contract situation.  the upside i keep blabbing about is that the guys we will lose don't really have a big impact anymore, so we can afford to lose them.  losing out some guys on D which gave up 7.7 a play and a forced one single punt in the divisional round, same guys who got trucked by cinci at home last year, well, i think we can give up 7.7 with a bunch of rooks and some cheapo fa guys, heck maybe even 7.5!

 

we are also down our starting wr who didn't even play, was involved in a shocking % of allen's picks (particular on a per target basis) and who had 2 or less catches in what, half the games of the year or something?

 

if we can get production out of williams, elam, and von, and not lose milano and our top 3 (4?) corners we are a better d than we've had in the playoffs ever, and we will exceed that if we get some good rookie production too.

 

on O, we need 2 or 3 guys who are better than davis (who wasn't playing, so trivially possible), harty, and sherf.  haines coming back might be better in passing than the last two and a rookie who can play or two can round that out.

 

mcd has to learn his lesson, but i think there are signs he is learning.  

 

knox finding health and diggs not falling off a cliff are also our opportunities to excel.

[Paup 1995MVP]

23 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I agree, we have something around a decade plus left of “windows”  with Allen at the helm, I think we will all be pleasantly surprised with how good the roster is set up going into training camp, 😁👍

 

GO BILLS!!!

I agree with your assessment.  The six game win streak late in the season to get us to the divisional round where we only lost by a missed FG to the Chiefs showed the heart grit and toughness of the team.  And said a lot about McDermott leadership ability.  The defense just ran out of gas because of all the injuries.  We get healthy and a little younger on defense.  And get some explosion with some new WR's (Both of which I think Beane will make a priority) and I see our team being a strong contender again.  The salary cap seems pretty easy to manipulate.  And I think a lot of players want to play for a winning organization like the Bills.  Rather then take maybe a little more to play for a scrub team (Bears, Commanders, Panthers, etc) who have a lot of salary cap space.  We will be fine when the dust settles.  

[JimBob2232]

14 hours ago, Trev said:

If he’s the best qb ever, theres a ton of room for improvement. 

 

You might need to re-read what I wrote...

[26TrapDraw]

6 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

 

The perception that you have to have a bunch of high priced guys to win the SB is false.  Draft develop and be careful/judicial about how many guys you re-sign.  The flaw with this team is they think they have to re-sign everyone they draft and contributes

 

The whole "window" term is manufactured by the loud mouths on TV and internet and so overused and then the fans use it excessively like its a thing with all teams.

Also is getting rid of all the high price crap we have on this team going to Make Josh study film and Concentrate on seeing the field better?

[dayman]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Excuse me.  This is both wrong and inappropriate.  

 

The fact that a word has a definition - like the definition of window above, does not prove that windows exist or are a viable roster strategy.  Flat Earth is the concept that the earth is shaped like a disk, but the fact that there is a term for the concept doesn't prove the existence of that concept, either.  

 

The windows that you're talking about naturally occurring.  They occur by design of the GM, who tries to make their team succeed by acquiring a lot of talent, all arriving at the franchise at more or less the same time.  Modern NFL GMs rarely operate their team that way these days, because the draft and the salary cap work so well that it's essentially impossible to out-talent the rest of the league.  Baseball teams sometimes have tried to do it intentionally by tanking to accumulate multiple years of high first round picks, unloading talented veterans for more picks or just to stockpile money, then race to the top on the backs of young talent that the team won't re-sign to monster contracts.   It just isn't an effective model in the NFL.

 

One place where it happens occasionally is when the team hits on a rookie QB who is so good so young that the team has a window with a lot of cap room.   But that doesn't happen very often.  

 

The Bills signing Von Miller was not window behavior, because Von Miller was signed to a long-term contract that was designed to give the Bills a great edge for at least three years and as much as six.  That's building a team, not loading up on talent for the short-run.  Beyond that, the notion of "window behavior" is bogus.  What you're talking about is behavior like the Rams acquiring Miller the year before or signing OBJ.  That doesn't mean the Rams had a strategy based on windows and rebuilds.  The Rams expect to be good year after year.  All those signing represented was something that Beane says he would do, too, which is that if the team is having a good regular season run and looks like it could win it all, then he'll do whatever he can to get additional talent on the team.  So, for example, when the Bills were 6-6, Beane was not going to run out and get a special player on a one-year (or less) rental.  If they're 10-2 next season, he might.  

 

The Bills have been built, intentionally, to compete for championships every year, year after year, and to reload talent in such a way that the team doesn't have peaks and valleys with talent.  That is exactly what McBeane described when they first got to Buffalo. 

 

What's worse than the fact that you were wrong, however, is your attitude and the tone with which you address the rest of us.  We are not "brainless" (far from it) and we are not "dumbasses."    

dumbass - a stupid or contemptible person. E.g., “we have a dumbass of a mayor.”

 

Read the thread. Hardly inappropriate. As for you, thanks for acknowledging windows exist.

[nedboy7]

12 hours ago, skibum said:

Hey, even Brady had a 9-year SB drought in his prime.

 

but but but. Window!  Mcdisphit!  13 whinings!  Josh doesn’t care!  Dumbass! 

Edited February 16 by nedboy7

[Billl]

21 hours ago, dayman said:

Talk of windows being nonexistent identifies posters that have no brain. Let me help the brainless (although I’d rather not):

 

Window — a period of time where peak roster construction is in place.

 

We were just in one but didn’t capitalize largely due to catastrophic injuries on defense. This topic is about how to adjust moving forward given that age and cap now disrupt our core roster moving forward.

 

Anyone with a brain that follows sports sees teams make aggressive moves when they’re close (e.g. us signing Von at his age and price). This is window behavior. The Von contract itself proves windows exist.
 

Windows exist. You dumbasses. 

 

 

Nobody here has a problem acknowledging that other teams have windows.  It’s only when someone suggests that they exist in Buffalo that people suddenly act like it’s an absurd notion.  The Bills front office clearly saw that their window was wide open a few years ago.   It’s why they signed Von to a heavily backloaded deal.  They went “all in” as an organization knowing that the tab would come due down the road.  That window is starting to close.  This doesn’t mean that Buffalo can’t or won’t win a title in the next year or two, but it does make it more difficult.

 

23 months ago, the Chiefs window went from wide open to very narrow overnight.  When Tyreek was traded, the focus shifted from the 2022 season to 2024 and beyond when the draft picks would start to mature.  We know what happened next, and there’s nothing saying that the Bills can’t do something similar.  They’ve certainly got the QB to make it happen, but the margin for error is much smaller when there are so many declining players soaking up huge dollars against the cap.

 

At this point, a choice has to be made.  Do you rip off the bandaid and do a serious blood letting in terms of the cap, or do you try to re-tool on the fly?  I haven’t seen any indication that OBD intends to do the former, so Beane is going to have to knock the next few drafts out of the park.  I thought they should have started the rebuild after last season, but that obviously didn’t happen.  My guess is that it will take them completely missing the playoffs before the decision is made to go that route, and if that happens Beane and McDermott likely won’t be around to help clean up afterwards.

[Aussie Joe]

7 minutes ago, Billl said:

Nobody here has a problem acknowledging that other teams have windows.  It’s only when someone suggests that they exist in Buffalo that people suddenly act like it’s an absurd notion.  The Bills front office clearly saw that their window was wide open a few years ago.   It’s why they signed Von to a heavily backloaded deal.  They went “all in” as an organization knowing that the tab would come due down the road.  That window is starting to close.  This doesn’t mean that Buffalo can’t or won’t win a title in the next year or two, but it does make it more difficult.

 

23 months ago, the Chiefs window went from wide open to very narrow overnight.  When Tyreek was traded, the focus shifted from the 2022 season to 2024 and beyond when the draft picks would start to mature.  We know what happened next, and there’s nothing saying that the Bills can’t do something similar.  They’ve certainly got the QB to make it happen, but the margin for error is much smaller when there are so many declining players soaking up huge dollars against the cap.

 

At this point, a choice has to be made.  Do you rip off the bandaid and do a serious blood letting in terms of the cap, or do you try to re-tool on the fly?  I haven’t seen any indication that OBD intends to do the former, so Beane is going to have to knock the next few drafts out of the park.  I thought they should have started the rebuild after last season, but that obviously didn’t happen.  My guess is that it will take them completely missing the playoffs before the decision is made to go that route, and if that happens Beane and McDermott likely won’t be around to help clean up afterwards.

You went down the gloom and doom path all of last years off season too….

 

Yes.. we understand … he has to have a good draft … they are still bringing back 18 of 22 starters,  and have some good pieces on rookie deals ..

[Billl]

16 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

You went down the gloom and doom path all of last years off season too….

 

Yes.. we understand … he has to have a good draft … they are still bringing back 18 of 22 starters,  and have some good pieces on rookie deals ..

I predicted 10 or 11 wins and that the last game of the season would determine if the Bills made the playoffs.  I would have been exactly correct except the Titans beat the Jaguars prior to the Miami game, so Buffalo was in either way.  We’ll see how the offseason goes, but the team is facing some serious headwinds.  Anything is possible, but IMO superstars win championships and Josh is the only superstar on the roster.

[GoBills808]

This was the last year of the window wrt Allen's cap hit and we missed it, he jumps from $18.6M this past season to $47M next one

 

add in not enough young talent and a lot of old/expensive or mediocre players on market rate deals...it's not difficult at all to say this particular window of opportunity is closed

 

bills are going to need to get very lucky in the draft imo

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

This was the last year of the window wrt Allen's cap hit and we missed it, he jumps from $18.6M this past season to $47M next one

 

add in not enough young talent and a lot of old/expensive or mediocre players on market rate deals...it's not difficult at all to say this particular window of opportunity is closed

 

bills are going to need to get very lucky in the draft imo

There’s no way they don’t restructure Josh.

 

the problem is all the other crap contracts.  Diggs, Von, and Tre mainly.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

There’s no way they don’t restructure Josh.

 

the problem is all the other crap contracts.  Diggs, Von, and Tre mainly.

and knox and oliver and bass, etc etc

 

i think we will have to suffer for a few years here tbh

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, Billl said:

I predicted 10 or 11 wins and that the last game of the season would determine if the Bills made the playoffs.  I would have been exactly correct except the Titans beat the Jaguars prior to the Miami game, so Buffalo was in either way.  We’ll see how the offseason goes, but the team is facing some serious headwinds.  Anything is possible, but IMO superstars win championships and Josh is the only superstar on the roster.

Yes to the last line … there is no Chris Jones on this Bills team … Are you keeping him next season by the way? 

 

I think you do underestimate the rest of the talent level of this Bills team though judging by other opinions you have expressed ..they  took your team all the way and did have a chance to win in the final 2 mins…this was with several injuries in the back 7 which your coach and QB rightfully exploited on the day…

 

Unlike the rest of us here …you have your own team to worry about,  so you probably aren’t watching every down of every Bills  game …the likes of Kincaid , Cook,Torrence and Bernard are all quality first/second  year players which Beane has found in the draft the last two years …Elam was a shocking miss… but softened by finding another starting CB in Round 6 of the same draft,,,

 

There is no point “blowing  it up” when they are still likely Division winners again next year and Josh Allen age 28 and at his peak…

 

If things go off the rails and they miss the playoffs …then so be it … it would be nice picking in the teens and finding that new WR without sweating it out whether he falls to you..….

[st pete gogolak]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

and knox and oliver and bass, etc etc

 

i think we will have to suffer for a few years here tbh

Oliver!  Agenda, much?

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, st pete gogolak said:

Oliver!  Agenda, much?

no agenda

jump to conclusions much

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

and knox and oliver and bass, etc etc

 

i think we will have to suffer for a few years here tbh

 

Oliver is not a bad contract. That is insane.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oliver is not a bad contract. That is insane.

I never said it's a bad contract, he'sjust  not the kind of guy you need to pay market rate for. There's no value there.

[Billl]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oliver is not a bad contract. That is insane.

It’s a good contract if you think he’s going to continue to be a 9.5 sack guy.  The past three seasons, he’s had 4 sacks, 2.5 sacks and 9.5 sacks.  In those same seasons, he’s had 14 QB hits, 14 QB hits, and 16 QB hits.  On the one hand, it’s kind of amazing that he was able to convert 60% of his QB hits into sacks.  On the other hand, that’s really difficult to sustain.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Billl said:

It’s a good contract if you think he’s going to continue to be a 9.5 sack guy.  The past three seasons, he’s had 4 sacks, 2.5 sacks and 9.5 sacks.  In those same seasons, he’s had 14 QB hits, 14 QB hits, and 16 QB hits.  On the one hand, it’s kind of amazing that he was able to convert 60% of his QB hits into sacks.  On the other hand, that’s really difficult to sustain.

 

Look at the underlying metrics in terms of pass rush win rate and pressures. If anything it was an anomoly that the sacks didn't come sooner. Ed's a top player. Zero doubt about it.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Look at the underlying metrics in terms of pass rush win rate and pressures. If anything it was an anomoly that the sacks didn't come sooner. Ed's a top player. Zero doubt about it.

lol I mean if you think Ed Oliver is a top player than of course you love the contract

[GunnerBill]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

lol I mean if you think Ed Oliver is a top player than of course you love the contract

 

He is a top player.