Will Derrick Henry be a Bill in 2024?

[Logic]

Gosh I hope not.

There are a positively insane amount of free agent running backs this year. Just wait out the game of musical chairs and offer a bottom basement deal to whoever's left without a place to sit. Re-sign Ty Johnson, as he won't command much and will want more of the opportunities that the Bills offense afforded him. Then draft/add two RBs somewhere between round 6 and UDFA.

Cook
FA signee
Ty Johnson
Draftee/UDFA

I just really have no interest in the Bills either spending big money that they don't have on a running back, or adding a running back who would take James Cook off the field.
 

[Matt_In_NH]

Only if he "throws a man"

[That's No Moon]

Not only will he not be a Bill in 2024, I will go so far as to say he will never be a Bill

[NoSaint]

33 minutes ago, Logic said:

Gosh I hope not.

There are a positively insane amount of free agent running backs this year. Just wait out the game of musical chairs and offer a bottom basement deal to whoever's left without a place to sit. Re-sign Ty Johnson, as he won't command much and will want more of the opportunities that the Bills offense afforded him. Then draft/add two RBs somewhere between round 6 and UDFA.

Cook
FA signee
Ty Johnson
Draftee/UDFA

I just really have no interest in the Bills either spending big money that they don't have on a running back, or adding a running back who would take James Cook off the field.
 

though we may see him not get the big bucks and need a cheaper place to sit. 
 

likely above our target but could be far less than I think most are imagining 

[DCofNC]

On 2/4/2024 at 8:19 PM, bigK14094 said:

He earned his salary and was a surprising receiving threat.

The Brady connection makes this plausible.  Can't tell though, CEH may not want to be #2 behind Cook.

I don’t think CEH is in any position to try to demand a starting gig after being unseated by a 6th round, nobody.   He’s not good.  I’d rather keep Johnson.

[Logic]

11 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

though we may see him not get the big bucks and need a cheaper place to sit. 
 

likely above our target but could be far less than I think most are imagining 

Maybe, but...

Coming off seasons of

1900 yards 13 TDs
and
1300 yards 12 TDs

...I see his agents looking for -- and Henry receiving -- more money than what the Bills realistically have to offer. I realize he's 30 years old, but this isn't a "past his prime, take what he can get" kind of situation. This is a "Hall of Fame back who can still be a bellcow and finish top 10 in rushing yards for another year or two" situation.

I think he ends up signing with Baltimore or Dallas for a mid-level running back salary.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 2/4/2024 at 2:37 AM, FireChans said:

I’m slowly getting more and more convinced this is the kind of old good player that Beane will go after. Especially with Brady’s emphasis on the run and McD being a defensive guy. A pound the rock for 3 YPC guy just feels right.

 

So what do we think?

Henry is no pound the rock for 3yds player but with that being said it's a classic McBeane move to go after a big name player that's past there prime

[PonyBoy]

Josh Norman says no ............

Scrimmages would be awkward. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 2/4/2024 at 3:22 AM, Warriorspikes51 said:

Allen + Henry might finally take away SOME of the 2 high safety looks

We don't have a RB until we can do this otherwise the backs we have are just taking advantage of playing next to Josh. 

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

Maybe, but...

Coming off seasons of

1900 yards 13 TDs
and
1300 yards 12 TDs

...I see his agents looking for -- and Henry receiving -- more money than what the Bills realistically have to offer. I realize he's 30 years old, but this isn't a "past his prime, take what he can get" kind of situation. This is a "Hall of Fame back who can still be a bellcow and finish top 10 in rushing yards for another year or two" situation.

I think he ends up signing with Baltimore or Dallas for a mid-level running back salary.

define mid level rb salary- as I think that’s where a lot of the expectations diverge in this thread 

 

Also, what a heavily used back did at 28 doesn’t matter much at 30 

Edited February 22 by NoSaint

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

define mid level rb salary- as I think that’s where a lot of the expectations diverge in this thread 

 

Also, what a heavily used back did at 28 doesn’t matter much at 30 

The 12th highest RB salary by AAV in 2023 was $6M. 
 

Some folks have not caught on to how long the RB market has gone. The differences in these numbers is pretty meaningless. Murray and Harris cost $3M against the cap and Henry is, at least, twice as good as them combined.

[BearNorth]

Jim Brown retired after 118 games with 12,312 yards gained and 106 TD's

 

Henry has played 119 games, has 9,502 yards gained and 90 TD's

 

Have to wonder how much he has left in the tank.  Elliott came into the league at the same time, and he didn't exactly rock the league this year.

 

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, BearNorth said:

Jim Brown retired after 118 games with 12,312 yards gained and 106 TD's

 

Henry has played 119 games, has 9,502 yards gained and 90 TD's

 

Have to wonder how much he has left in the tank.  Elliott came into the league at the same time, and he didn't exactly rock the league this year.

 

saw a clip of him working out the other day…. 
 

he’s just different.  Can still be elite for a few more seasons IMO

[djp14150]

I’d love to sign at $1M each.  But we can’t afford whst he’d ask unless he’s willing to take 1 yr for a ring.

[wppete]

We need to sign Ty Johnson. Cook and Johnson are a great duo. Draft a solid hard running RB as our 3rd RB. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

We're 50M over the cap and already signing Derrick Henry, Terry Mclauren and Mike Evans.

[Special K]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

We're 50M over the cap and already signing Derrick Henry, Terry Mclauren and Mike Evans.

 

I'm not for signing Henry, but after restructures of Josh Allen and others, plus contract extensions for Dawkins, Douglas, Taron and possibly Morse, the Bills will be 20-30 million under the cap.

[Chicken Boo]

What the Bills do on offense doesn't suit Henry's strengths.  

 

He'd be better suited for Dallas or the Texans.  Boy, imagine him on the Texans 😬

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

We're 50M over the cap and already signing Derrick Henry, Terry Mclauren and Mike Evans.

 

Well, you know, if we pay them 35 cents in Year 1 and add 72 void years....

 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

1 hour ago, Special K said:

 

I'm not for signing Henry, but after restructures of Josh Allen and others, plus contract extensions for Dawkins, Douglas, Taron and possibly Morse, the Bills will be 20-30 million under the cap.

 

That's true but all those restructures do is kick the can down the road. If we want to move on from Diggs as early as next year all the restructuring we've done will end up being a dead cap hit at some point that we'll have to eat. Allen is fine he'll be here forever but what about guys like Knox (I hear he's making more than Travis Kelce), Dion Dawkins is getting older, pretty soon all these restructures are going to bite us in the ass. Just fill in the spots you need after the restructures with drafted talent and get out of the restructure hell! 

[Special K]

46 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

That's true but all those restructures do is kick the can down the road. If we want to move on from Diggs as early as next year all the restructuring we've done will end up being a dead cap hit at some point that we'll have to eat. Allen is fine he'll be here forever but what about guys like Knox (I hear he's making more than Travis Kelce), Dion Dawkins is getting older, pretty soon all these restructures are going to bite us in the ass. Just fill in the spots you need after the restructures with drafted talent and get out of the restructure hell! 

 

They certainly need to get younger and cheaper on the Defensive side of the ball.....this is definitely not the offseason of many splashy free agent signings, but one difference-maker would be nice.....

[Logic]

14 hours ago, NoSaint said:

define mid level rb salary- as I think that’s where a lot of the expectations diverge in this thread 

 

Also, what a heavily used back did at 28 doesn’t matter much at 30 

To be clear, it's not the age that I think will keep the Bills out of the Derrick Henry market. Clearly, with their signing of Latavius Murray, they showed that age really isn't an issue for them.

It's the Bills' dire salary cap situation, the price tag I expect Henry to be looking for, and the fact that they already have a cost controlled 24 year old coming off a 1500 yard season as RB1. 

You bring in Derrick Henry if you have a bit of money to spend and an opening at RB1. The Bills have neither.

I want a good change of pace back, too. Someone to take some miles off Cook and give the Bills some depth in the event of injury to their RB1, who is on the smaller side. I just think that said player can be signed for cheaper than what Henry will command, and they can also draft another youngster.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

To be clear, it's not the age that I think will keep the Bills out of the Derrick Henry market. Clearly, with their signing of Latavius Murray, they showed that age really isn't an issue for them.

It's the Bills' dire salary cap situation, the price tag I expect Henry to be looking for, and the fact that they already have a cost controlled 24 year old coming off a 1500 yard season as RB1. 

You bring in Derrick Henry if you have a bit of money to spend and an opening at RB1. The Bills have neither.

I want a good change of pace back, too. Someone to take some miles off Cook and give the Bills some depth in the event of injury to their RB1, who is on the smaller side. I just think that said player can be signed for cheaper than what Henry will command, and they can also draft another youngster.

What is the price tag you expect?

[Logic]

26 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What is the price tag you expect?

Spotrac projects one year at $10.3 million. I think it'll be pretty close to that, give or take a million in either direction.

I don't view Henry as the typical "dime-a-dozen veteran running back in a crowded market". He's a likely future Hall of Famer coming off back-to-back 1300+ yard seasons and six straight 10 TD+ seasons. 

I also think his name carries some sizzle for marketing purposes, and I can see a team like the Cowboys not hesitating to sign him.

And just so that I'm not the "say no without offering an alternative" guy, I'd much rather sign Antonio Gibson (projected at $3.6 million). Passing game utility. Still just 25 years old.

I'd also be happy to take a swing on JK Dobbins, who is projected at $2.1 million. Obviously coming off an ACL and an achilles in back-to-back years, but he was a big time talent and a 2nd round draft pick and is also 25 years old.

Give me a Cook/Gibson/Johnson/UDFA or Cook/Dobbins/Johnson/UDFA backfield and I'm happy.

I love Derrick Henry. It would be very cool to see him finish out his career as a Bill. I just don't think it's feasible.
 

Edited February 22 by Logic

[NoSaint]

47 minutes ago, Logic said:

To be clear, it's not the age that I think will keep the Bills out of the Derrick Henry market. Clearly, with their signing of Latavius Murray, they showed that age really isn't an issue for them.

It's the Bills' dire salary cap situation, the price tag I expect Henry to be looking for, and the fact that they already have a cost controlled 24 year old coming off a 1500 yard season as RB1. 

You bring in Derrick Henry if you have a bit of money to spend and an opening at RB1. The Bills have neither.

I want a good change of pace back, too. Someone to take some miles off Cook and give the Bills some depth in the event of injury to their RB1, who is on the smaller side. I just think that said player can be signed for cheaper than what Henry will command, and they can also draft another youngster.

to also be clear my point wasn’t that we’d avoid him for age, but that the nfl won’t be paying him for stats two years ago. 
 

the core of my post was asking you to define a number for what you actually think his contract looks like. 
 

I truly find that phrases like “mid tier rb money” can mean WILDLY different things to different posters. 
 

the 13-20th (ie +/-4 guys from mid point of top 32) highest paid backs on average contract value, for instance, is a range of 2.25m-4m. 
 

I suspect your number is substantially above that

[TheFunPolice]

a ring for the king!

 

Everything is feasible. The cap can always be managed, BUT you have to get it right.

 

Henry and Cook would be an amazing 1-2 punch. This team needs to load up on offense.

 

If the Saints can field a football team then it shows that the cap is fake. 

[Logic]

18 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

to also be clear my point wasn’t that we’d avoid him for age, but that the nfl won’t be paying him for stats two years ago. 
 

the core of my post was asking you to define a number for what you actually think his contract looks like. 
 

I truly find that phrases like “mid tier rb money” can mean WILDLY different things to different posters. 
 

the 13-20th (ie +/-4 guys from mid point of top 32) highest paid backs on average contract value, for instance, is a range of 2.25m-4m. 
 

I suspect your number is substantially above that

See my post directly above that reply. Spotrac projects a 1 year, $10.3 million deal for him, and I think that's about right.

[FireChans]

45 minutes ago, Logic said:

Spotrac projects one year at $10.3 million. I think it'll be pretty close to that, give or take a million in either direction.

I don't view Henry as the typical "dime-a-dozen veteran running back in a crowded market". He's a likely future Hall of Famer coming off back-to-back 1300+ yard seasons and six straight 10 TD+ seasons. 

I also think his name carries some sizzle for marketing purposes, and I can see a team like the Cowboys not hesitating to sign him.

And just so that I'm not the "say no without offering an alternative" guy, I'd much rather sign Antonio Gibson (projected at $3.6 million). Passing game utility. Still just 25 years old.

I'd also be happy to take a swing on JK Dobbins, who is projected at $2.1 million. Obviously coming off an ACL and an achilles in back-to-back years, but he was a big time talent and a 2nd round draft pick and is also 25 years old.

Give me a Cook/Gibson/Johnson/UDFA or Cook/Dobbins/Johnson/UDFA backfield and I'm happy.

I love Derrick Henry. It would be very cool to see him finish out his career as a Bill. I just don't think it's feasible.
 

I don’t think there’s a chance he sees north of 8M.

 

10.3M is the near the franchise tag salary for an RB and would cement Henry as the 7th highest paid back in the NFL.

 

I disagree he will see that money north of 30. Hell, the Titans are paying him 12.5M, why cut him at all if that’s his market value?

 

Also, FWIW, the Spotrac market value stuff is really off. It’s probably the least accurate thing the site supports.

[Logic]

21 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

a ring for the king!

 

Everything is feasible. The cap can always be managed, BUT you have to get it right.

 

Henry and Cook would be an amazing 1-2 punch. This team needs to load up on offense.

 

If the Saints can field a football team then it shows that the cap is fake. 

If the cap was fake, the Bills would've already re-signed DaQuan Jones, Gabe Davis, and AJ Epenesa. Instead, they may lose all three players.

You ARE correct that the cap can always be managed. However, like with a credit card, the bill always eventually comes due.


 

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think there’s a chance he sees north of 8M.

 

10.3M is the near the franchise tag salary for an RB and would cement Henry as the 7th highest paid back in the NFL.

 

I disagree he will see that money north of 30. Hell, the Titans are paying him 12.5M, why cut him at all if that’s his market value?

 

Also, FWIW, the Spotrac market value stuff is really off. It’s probably the least accurate thing the site supports.

I guess we'll see in just a few short weeks.

My two questions for you (and forgive me if you've already answered them, I haven't read this entire thread):

1. What do you think Henry will get paid when its all said and done?
2. Assuming you want the Bills to sign him, what number would you feel comfortable paying him?

Edited February 22 by Logic

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

If the cap was fake, the Bills would've already re-signed DaQuan Jones, Gabe Davis, and AJ Epenesa. Instead, they may lose all three players.

You ARE correct that the cap can always be managed. However, like with a credit card, the bill always eventually comes due.


 

I guess we'll see in just a few short weeks.

My two questions for you (and forgive me if you've already answered them, I haven't read this entire thread):

1. What do you think Henry will get paid when its all said and done?
2. Assuming you want the Bills to sign him, what number would you feel comfortable paying him?

1. I could see $6M base with up to 8M with incentives

2. I would sign him $6M base with up to 8M with incentives, add a void year to bring his cap number down.

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, Logic said:

If the cap was fake, the Bills would've already re-signed DaQuan Jones, Gabe Davis, and AJ Epenesa. Instead, they may lose all three players.

You ARE correct that the cap can always be managed. However, like with a credit card, the bill always eventually comes due.


 

I guess we'll see in just a few short weeks.

My two questions for you (and forgive me if you've already answered them, I haven't read this entire thread):

1. What do you think Henry will get paid when its all said and done?
2. Assuming you want the Bills to sign him, what number would you feel comfortable paying him?

I’ll say I think he’s more in the 2 for 15 area as a goal and might not be that. wouldn’t be shocked if after musical chairs he ends up getting humbled if his expectations are 10+ and he ends up settling for even less than that (see cook, dalvin) 

 

while I get where your at quoting thing like “6 straight years over….” I think you are neglecting that many GMs will be of the mindset that “6 straight years of heavy usage” is actually a negative not a positive for his contract negotiation 

 

I’ve said repeatedly I don’t think he’s my own major target but when you look at subbing him in and pulling the dollars from Hines/harty it’s not terribly upsetting if Brady would rather grind a bit instead of having gadget guys 

 

cheap way to save Josh some hits, and defenses definitely wouldn’t look forward to playing the bills

Edited February 22 by NoSaint

[BillsFanForever19]

We can talk about the potential of Henry in this offense and whether it would be wise or not to sign him with our cap situation.

 

The point is moot to me. He's going to Baltimore.

 

Baltimore is a contender. They were going to give up a Draft Pick or more to have him in the Playoffs last season. The Titans owner just put the caboshes to it at the last second. They have a barren wasteland of a backfield and now Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins are both Free Agent's. They can now get him like they planned, without having to give up anything in compensation. He can start there. They want him badly.

 

Since "Vegas Odds" are all the rage right now to argue points, here's what Vegas says:

 

Baltimore +175

Dallas +550

Philadelphia +650

Houston +750

 

We aren't even on the list. Like so many things being discussed of late, we're ignoring what's likely and focusing on the unlikely.

[Warriorspikes51]

27 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

We can talk about the potential of Henry in this offense and whether it would be wise or not to sign him with our cap situation.

 

The point is moot to me. He's going to Baltimore.

 

Baltimore is a contender. They were going to give up a Draft Pick or more to have him in the Playoffs last season. The Titans owner just put the caboshes to it at the last second. They have a barren wasteland of a backfield and now Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins are both Free Agent's. They can now get him like they planned, without having to give up anything in compensation. He can start there. They want him badly.

 

Since "Vegas Odds" are all the rage right now to argue points, here's what Vegas says:

 

Baltimore +175

Dallas +550

Philadelphia +650

Houston +750

 

We aren't even on the list. Like so many things being discussed of late, we're ignoring what's likely and focusing on the unlikely.

glad to see you’re feeling better😂

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

glad to see you’re feeling better😂

 

I mean, today the focus is on the board cannibalizing itself over Araiza going to the Chiefs.

 

More and more I'm seeing why yolo went dark for so long.

[stuvian]

He's one of my favourite football players and a legend but I just don't see him in our scheme.

[Thurman#1]

On 2/4/2024 at 9:44 AM, FireChans said:

Who will get more money in FA?

 

 

Henry. A lot more. Which is why we won't be signing him.

[strive_for_five_guy]

You know Beane likes to get his man - Henry going to agree to terms with us today???

[Toyo321]

Bills win not fork over any more money in the RB position this year for a big name RB in FA, especially on Henry.  It's just not going to happen.

The money needs to be spent on bigger needs "Holes" in this teams roster this year.

Edited March 11 by Toyo321

[Dunkirk Donski]

Took a month off from TBD to come back to this...🙄