Gunner's 2024 Mock Draft - FINAL v3.0 NOW LIVE (p.13)

[Bill from NYC]

3 hours ago, Process said:

I would hate Bowers to the Jets but if he's there for them it seems like such an obvious pick

Yeah that would suck but it does seem very possible.

[mannc]

31 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

Gunner nice work as usual. Thanks for sharing. I think WR also but feel like the grades are similar on a bunch of them after the 1st 4 or 5. In this mock I'd rather give up #28, next years 2nd and one of our 4ths this year to get Thomas.

I would give that up to move up into the late teens for Thomas, but I have a feeling he’s coming off the board before that, maybe even before Odunze…

Edited March 29 by mannc

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

Thanks Gunner. I always look forward to and enjoy these, and your reasoning is sound throughout.

I just can't seem to get excited about AD Mitchell. Maybe it's the tape that doesn't pop off the screen, maybe it's the talk of his taking routes off or having bad body language when he knows he won't be getting the ball in a given play, maybe it's that he's a jack of all trades and master of none. I just...don't look at him and think "now HERE'S a guy that's gonna take the Bills passing game to the next level". Am I wrong? Is there something you can tell me about him or a shine a light on that would make me feel better about his selection?

Assuming the board falls how you have it laid out, I'd rather see the Bills trade back, gain a 3rd round pick, and take a different receiver in round 2.

 

 

He wouldn't be my pick. Maybe he isn't theirs either. I agree he doesn't excite. There is something missing. But the Bills love physical freaks and high RAS. He didn't play like he tested to me. Who knows if they feel the same.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, qwksilver said:

Gunner nice work as usual. Thanks for sharing. I think WR also but feel like the grades are similar on a bunch of them after the 1st 4 or 5. In this mock I'd rather give up #28, next years 2nd and one of our 4ths this year to get Thomas.

 

I am not as high on Thomas as some. If he got to within the kinda "4th round pick" trade up territory where Elam and Kincaid were taken then I'd be okay. But I wouldn't be giving up next years 2nd. 

[Logic]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not as high on Thomas as some. If he got to within the kinda "4th round pick" trade up territory where Elam and Kincaid were taken then I'd be okay. But I wouldn't be giving up next years 2nd. 

Thomas scares the Bejesus out of me.

Height/weight/speed guys who don't break out until junior/senior year are terrifying.

I get Denzel Mims with a hint of Terrace Marshall vibes.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Here's how to think about all that. His QB sucked and is mostly a first read / half field read guy in an offense that spread the ball all over the place. Texas had 15 guys below Mitchell on the depth chart catch nearly 60% of their receptions. 

 

There will be a huge difference playing with Josh Allen. Josh throws the ball everywhere on the field, the play is never dead, and the Bills are very top heavy in their targets. 

 

And then the major plus to Mitchell's game is his clutch genes. Big game, crucial moment TD's. Including national championship winning score. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

The 40 yard TD was as clutch as can be.  National Championship game.  Georgia was on the ropes on their way to losing 8 straight times to Alabama.

 

Mitchell put his cape on and came through big time !!!

Edited March 29 by JakeFrommStateFarm

[qwksilver]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not as high on Thomas as some. If he got to within the kinda "4th round pick" trade up territory where Elam and Kincaid were taken then I'd be okay. But I wouldn't be giving up next years 2nd. 

Gunner, Since we all believe WR is such a need I would love to see your grades on top 10-15 WRs this year. Thanks in advance

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

Gunner, Since we all believe WR is such a need I would love to see your grades on top 10-15 WRs this year. Thanks in advance

 

I'm away this evening so not by my board. I'll give it a shot and come back and correct if I am off (and remember these are grades not where I think they will go)

 

1. Marvin Harrison - top 5 grade

2. Malik Nabers - top 10 grade

3. Rome Odunze - top 10 grade

4. Xavier Legette - late 1st round grade

5. Brian Thomas - 1st/2nd borderline grade

6. Adonai Mitchell - mid to high 2nd

7. Xavier Worthy - mid 2nd

8. Ladd McConkey - mid 2nd

9. Troy Franklin - mid to late 2nd

10. Keon Coleman - late 2nd

11. Javon Baker - 2nd/3rd borderline

12. Ricky Pearsall - high 3rd

13. Roman Wilson - high 3rd

14. Jermain Burton - mid to high 3rd

15. Tez Walker - mid 3rd

 

I think that is right but will crosscheck againsy my board in a couple of days when I'm home.

Edited March 29 by GunnerBill

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not as high on Thomas as some. If he got to within the kinda "4th round pick" trade up territory where Elam and Kincaid were taken then I'd be okay. But I wouldn't be giving up next years 2nd. 

Gunner

I asked earlier, which former Bills WR would you compare Mitchell to? And if nobody, what current NFL WR on some other team would you equate to him?

[Dr. Who]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

Thomas scares the Bejesus out of me.

Height/weight/speed guys who don't break out until junior/senior year are terrifying.

I get Denzel Mims with a hint of Terrace Marshall vibes.

So you're worried about Thomas and you don't like Mitchell. I'm sure you've said who you like at WR who is outside the top 3 impossible to get fellas, but I don't feel like searching for it. If you rule those two out, I'm on Legette, then McConkey, even though he's not what most folks are looking for.

[Logic]

30 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

So you're worried about Thomas and you don't like Mitchell. I'm sure you've said who you like at WR who is outside the top 3 impossible to get fellas, but I don't feel like searching for it. If you rule those two out, I'm on Legette, then McConkey, even though he's not what most folks are looking for.

Though I'm worried about Thomas, I'm fine with the Bills rolling the dice on him if they like what they see. Lord knows that they love supremely athletic physical specimens that they can turn over to their coaching staff for molding. If that's who the Bills want, cool. I'm just saying that height/weight/speed guys with limited collegiate productivity scare me a bit.

I'm still studying the college WRs, but so far, I like Xavier Worthy (over 900 yards and 12 TDs as a freshman) and Troy Franklin a lot. I think both would help the Bills stretch the field. I also like Jalen McMillan and Ja'lynn Polk from what I've seen so far.

I want explosivity, over-the-top ability, and separation ability, hence the guys I've named. I admit that Thomas has all of those things, and I understand why he seems to be the consensus WR4 in this draft. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Gunner

I asked earlier, which former Bills WR would you compare Mitchell to? And if nobody, what current NFL WR on some other team would you equate to him?

 

Honestly before the testing I'd have said Alshon Jeffrey former Bears and Eagles. His tape reminds me of him. But his testing says there is a higher ceiling there.

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

Though I'm worried about Thomas, I'm fine with the Bills rolling the dice on him if they like what they see. Lord knows that they love supremely athletic physical specimens that they can turn over to their coaching staff for molding. If that's who the Bills want, cool. I'm just saying that height/weight/speed guys with limited collegiate productivity scare me a bit.

I'm still studying the college WRs, but so far, I like Xavier Worthy (over 900 yards and 12 TDs as a freshman) and Troy Franklin a lot. I think both would help the Bills stretch the field. I also like Jalen McMillan and Ja'lynn Polk from what I've seen so far.

I want explosivity, over-the-top ability, and separation ability, hence the guys I've named. I admit that Thomas has all of those things, and I understand why he seems to be the consensus WR4 in this draft. 

Appreciate your thoughts. I'd gamble on Thomas and his traits, but I don't think he's likely to fall within a modest trade up, and I'm not sure Beane is plausibly in a position to do much more than that to get him. I'm mostly not on the fellas you are liking, but I can see how you could make a case for them. I'd be fine with Polk at #60 if they do something rather crazy like taking Cooper Dejean at #28. (Like the player, just not NFL S in the first. I just have a feeling he is McD's crush.) They ought to go find a way to get Bullard in the 3rd, btw.

 

Worthy would be exciting, but he's really a feather. I'd prefer a WR that doesn't just scare with speed, but can punish a tackler, and block. Ideally. Legette is the fella I come back to. I can't get past Franklin coming in shorter and lighter, then that awful Combine. That's probably not fair, and folks like his tape, apart from some drops issues. I'd rather not repeat that aspect of the Davis WR2 era.

 

 

[pennstate10]

7 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

No the Bills  traded 10 for 27, a 3rd, and a next years first. Poster either misheard or Trapasso is off on his valuation 

Thanks.  I stand corrected.  Forgot about the third, which is a big deal.  I think more and more teams are considering the top 100 picks as the most valuable picks.

 

Thats why it irks me that Bills got a compensatory 4th not 3rd, when all observers (not just Bills-centric) were assuming it was going to be a 3rd based on past several years data.

[gonzo1105]

13 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Thanks.  I stand corrected.  Forgot about the third, which is a big deal.  I think more and more teams are considering the top 100 picks as the most valuable picks.

 

Thats why it irks me that Bills got a compensatory 4th not 3rd, when all observers (not just Bills-centric) were assuming it was going to be a 3rd based on past several years data.

Yup I think that’s why Beane was pissed  about it too 

Edited March 30 by gonzo1105

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

OFC KC trades ahead of us

 

OFC

 

 

 

Ha. Really in this scenario they have to get above Baltimore. They have been all over Morgan in the process. If he gets to them he is gone. And I think KC really likes him too. There are two cases IMO of two teams appearing to have zeroed in on the same tackle and I have trades in both circumstances.

[Chaos]

12 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

Yup I think that’s why Beane was pissed  about it too 

Edmunds remains a cautionary tale on trading up. 

[Coach Tuesday]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Edmunds remains a cautionary tale on trading up. 

Not really.  

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

Edmunds remains a cautionary tale on trading up. 

Does Josh remain a cautionary tale on trading up?

[FireChans]

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm away this evening so not by my board. I'll give it a shot and come back and correct if I am off (and remember these are grades not where I think they will go)

 

1. Marvin Harrison - top 5 grade

2. Malik Nabers - top 10 grade

3. Rome Odunze - top 10 grade

4. Xavier Legette - late 1st round grade

5. Brian Thomas - 1st/2nd borderline grade

6. Adonai Mitchell - mid to high 2nd

7. Xavier Worthy - mid 2nd

8. Ladd McConkey - mid 2nd

9. Troy Franklin - mid to late 2nd

10. Keon Coleman - late 2nd

11. Javon Baker - 2nd/3rd borderline

12. Ricky Pearsall - high 3rd

13. Roman Wilson - high 3rd

14. Jermain Burton - mid to high 3rd

15. Tez Walker - mid 3rd

 

I think that is right but will crosscheck againsy my board in a couple of days when I'm home.

Do you think this is a top-heavy WR draft or a deep draft?

 

I only ask because I felt that in 2020, there were some great first round players, but the real strength of the WR class was that there would be guys in the later rounds that would’ve gone much higher in different years. Do you think that’s the case this year? Or is the strength truly in the first 10 or so prospects? 

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Do you think this is a top-heavy WR draft or a deep draft?

 

I only ask because I felt that in 2020, there were some great first round players, but the real strength of the WR class was that there would be guys in the later rounds that would’ve gone much higher in different years. Do you think that’s the case this year? Or is the strength truly in the first 10 or so prospects? 

 

I think it is definitely stronger at the top than 2020. This top 3 is better than that top 3. The next tier - Higgins, Aiyuk and Pittman is comparable to the next tier this year.

[Dr. Who]

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think it is definitely stronger at the top than 2020. This top 3 is better than that top 3. The next tier - Higgins, Aiyuk and Pittman is comparable to the next tier this year.

To be honest, the more I research, the more I think I would be willing to pay a fairly high price to move up and grab one of the top 3 if someone slips to 8 or 9.

[gonzo1105]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think it is definitely stronger at the top than 2020. This top 3 is better than that top 3. The next tier - Higgins, Aiyuk and Pittman is comparable to the next tier this year.

I’m not gonna skim because I don’t recall your 2020 rankings and maybe that’s what you’re going off of but Higgins and Pittman were WRs 7 and 8 in that draft. 

 

Was your grouping 5 deep after Ruggs, Jeudy , Lamb? Like I said can’t recall. I know I was higher on Jeudy and Jefferson than Ruggs for sure but man that draft while deep was very boom or bust probably a lot like this one. I wonder what Ruggs would have been if he didn’t do stupid crap 

[TPS]

On 3/29/2024 at 8:46 AM, frostbitmic said:

I like the Mitchell pick to the Bills, at least he hasn't shrunk two inches like Franklin and Legette.

 

I see a lot of people that want Newton @28 but the Bills are already paying Oliver as the 3tech and drafting another 3tech in the first to play maybe 1/3 of snaps probably isn't the best idea. I think Newton will be long gone before #28 anyways.

Given @GunnerBill’s scenario here, I think Beane would take Newton, because he sticks to his board, not decisions about possible playing time. Newton is a top half talent and Mitchell a (very) back half one. 

if the Bills are truly set on picking a WR, then I would think the optimal decision is to trade back if Newton is there. 

[section122]

Nice mock @GunnerBill.  I do think mhj to the cardinals is as much of a lock as williams is to the bears.  I think the vikings trade with the chargers right after.

 

Worthy to the Dolphins would be trouble imo that's a great pick and justification I agree with that I hadn't thought of yet.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, TPS said:

Given @GunnerBill’s scenario here, I think Beane would take Newton, because he sticks to his board, not decisions about possible playing time. Newton is a top half talent and Mitchell a (very) back half one. 

if the Bills are truly set on picking a WR, then I would think the optimal decision is to trade back if Newton is there. 

 

I agree in terms of their talents. And three years ago I might have agreed with what they'd do. But I suspect they do feel just a little bit of urgency given everything. Maybe Newton just goes much earlier (I'd take him at #9 if I was Chicago and the top 3 WRs were gone - he is my top ranked defensive player) and it saves any debate.

32 minutes ago, section122 said:

Nice mock @GunnerBill.  I do think mhj to the cardinals is as much of a lock as williams is to the bears.  I think the vikings trade with the chargers right after.

 

Worthy to the Dolphins would be trouble imo that's a great pick and justification I agree with that I hadn't thought of yet.

 

McDaniel was trying to be his "bro" at the pro day too. That was very cringe but possibly also telling.

[Chaos]

22 hours ago, FireChans said:

Does Josh remain a cautionary tale on trading up?

No. Most people understand the difference between a linebacker and a quarter in terms of risk / reward.  Maybe someday everyone will grasp that. 

 

[foreboding]

I think Nabers is the #1 reciever. He's way more explosive than MHJ.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, foreboding said:

I think Nabers is the #1 reciever. He's way more explosive than MHJ.

 

Definitely more explosive. Not as polished or nuanced. I wouldn't be stunned if in 5 years he is the better NFL player. I still have Harrison and Nabers closer than I do Nabers and Odunze.

[FireChans]

22 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I’m not gonna skim because I don’t recall your 2020 rankings and maybe that’s what you’re going off of but Higgins and Pittman were WRs 7 and 8 in that draft. 

 

Was your grouping 5 deep after Ruggs, Jeudy , Lamb? Like I said can’t recall. I know I was higher on Jeudy and Jefferson than Ruggs for sure but man that draft while deep was very boom or bust probably a lot like this one. I wonder what Ruggs would have been if he didn’t do stupid crap 

GB had 17 WR’s in his top 100 in 2020. It will be interesting to see how many there are this year.

 

Also, @GunnerBill are you still doing QB evals? Not as fun when we aren’t in the market, but they are usually a great read.

[TPS]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree in terms of their talents. And three years ago I might have agreed with what they'd do. But I suspect they do feel just a little bit of urgency given everything. Maybe Newton just goes much earlier (I'd take him at #9 if I was Chicago and the top 3 WRs were gone - he is my top ranked defensive player) and it saves any debate.

You did state that you could see the Bills moving up or back here, and I think that is more likely than Beane picking a WR who is a borderline R1/2 talent over a top 15 talent.  Again, this is just based on your scenario. 

 

[GunnerBill]

23 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I’m not gonna skim because I don’t recall your 2020 rankings and maybe that’s what you’re going off of but Higgins and Pittman were WRs 7 and 8 in that draft. 

 

Was your grouping 5 deep after Ruggs, Jeudy , Lamb? Like I said can’t recall. I know I was higher on Jeudy and Jefferson than Ruggs for sure but man that draft while deep was very boom or bust probably a lot like this one. I wonder what Ruggs would have been if he didn’t do stupid crap 

 

Yea I was Lamb and Jeudy, then Ruggs. I actually then had the next 4 as Higgins, Aiyuk, Jefferson and Pittman.

 

I do think it was similar in that there was consensus wise a top 3 and then a 4th guy who most but not everyone liked (and from LSU as well) then a gap and a group of guys who were seen as late day 1 / early day 2.

[DJB]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I was Lamb and Jeudy, then Ruggs. I actually then had the next 4 as Higgins, Aiyuk, Jefferson and Pittman.

 

I do think it was similar in that there was consensus wise a top 3 and then a 4th guy who most but not everyone liked (and from LSU as well) then a gap and a group of guys who were seen as late day 1 / early day 2.

 

Those were my pre draft rankings. Hugely wrong about Jeudy but nailed everything else pretty much 

 

Do you have a link or a post Gunner which proves that was your order as you had it written above? If so huge respect 

Edited March 31 by DJB

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

Those were my pre draft rankings. Hugely wrong about Jeudy but nailed everything else pretty much 

 

Do you have a link or a post Gunner which proves that was your order as you had it written above? If so huge respect 

 

Ha my top 5 will be on here somewhere. I am not sure Kudos is deserved. JJ is the best receiver in the NFL and I had a 2nd round grade on him. I liked Higgins and Aiyuk a bit more than most though.

 

[GunnerBill]

@DJB here is the link to my top 5

 

As I say.... I had Jefferson as a second so I am not claiming a total W. I was right on Higgins and Aiyuk. But wrong on Jeudy, wrong on Jefferson and who knows on Ruggs.

 

Edited March 31 by GunnerBill

[NewEra]

On 3/30/2024 at 1:18 PM, section122 said:

Nice mock @GunnerBill.  I do think mhj to the cardinals is as much of a lock as williams is to the bears.  I think the vikings trade with the chargers right after.

 

Worthy to the Dolphins would be trouble imo that's a great pick and justification I agree with that I hadn't thought of yet.

I don’t see how the chargers will be trading down. I think they traded Allen and let Williams go because they knew they’d be able to get Mhj, Nabers or Odunze.  All look to be close to surefire WR1s.  Huge questions about every other WR.  Quinton Johnston doesn’t look like a WR1.  I don’t think their plan is to seriously downgrade their receiver unit.  Trading down would do just that.

[mannc]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t see how the chargers will be trading down. I think they traded Allen and let Williams go because they knew they’d be able to get Mhj, Nabers or Odunze.  All look to be close to surefire WR1s.  Huge questions about every other WR.  Quinton Johnston doesn’t look like a WR1.  I don’t think their plan is to seriously downgrade their receiver unit.  Trading down would do just that.

I know Johnston wasn’t their pick, but it’s too early to write him off, and I don’t see a Jim Harbaugh team taking a WR in round 1 two years in a row.  I think they trade back, take a tackle and then a WR later, probably on day 2.

[section122]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t see how the chargers will be trading down. I think they traded Allen and let Williams go because they knew they’d be able to get Mhj, Nabers or Odunze.  All look to be close to surefire WR1s.  Huge questions about every other WR.  Quinton Johnston doesn’t look like a WR1.  I don’t think their plan is to seriously downgrade their receiver unit.  Trading down would do just that.

 

I think the chargers would be better off with 11 and 23 instead of just 5 and grabbing a wr.  Bowers and another 1st round talent at say rt.  Or maybe odunze slides to 11 and they still have 23.  

 

I don't think it's a full rebuild in la built i do think its a hard reset.  They have a lot of holes on their roster.   

 

On a more personal feeling I dont believe a greg roman offense would really feature back to back 1st round picks at wr.  I think its more likely they look to create a strong oline and defense than a high flying offense as counterintuitive as that may be with herbert at the qb spot.  It would be more in line with his coaching history.

[Norcalbillsfan]

Awesome mock, but I think McDermott would flip a table if beane took Mitchell and Johnny Newton is still on the board. It's a position of need this year, and a massive need in the coming years and he's arguably the best in the draft.

 

I could see McDermott himself sprinting to the podium to turn in the card if Newton is still there.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, section122 said:

 

I think the chargers would be better off with 11 and 23 instead of just 5 and grabbing a wr.  Bowers and another 1st round talent at say rt.  Or maybe odunze slides to 11 and they still have 23.  

 

I don't think it's a full rebuild in la built i do think its a hard reset.  They have a lot of holes on their roster.   

 

On a more personal feeling I dont believe a greg roman offense would really feature back to back 1st round picks at wr.  I think its more likely they look to create a strong oline and defense than a high flying offense as counterintuitive as that may be with herbert at the qb spot.  It would be more in line with his coaching history.

 

If the Chargers go into the season with what they currently have at receiver it will be without question the weakest receiver group in the NFL and not even close. I just can't see how they generate any offense at all with it. 

 

I get the Oline point but they have a left tackle. They also have a first round left guard. As much as I love Joe Alt are they really spending a third first round pick in four years on offensive line? 

 

I think anything other than pick the best receiver available to them is unspeakably dumb. It is by far the biggest roster need and it is where the genuine top 10 talent is in this draft. Talk about value matching need.

 

The other thing to throw into that mix of course is Arizona. If they trade back and the first four picks are QBs I am not sure where the callers are for a trade up. Maybe someone else calls to get up for MHJ. But if the Vikings and their two picks are off the board as a partner then what are the offers? Future picks? I mean maybe Harbaugh is happy to punt on 2024 somewhat... hard to know.

 

 

51 minutes ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Awesome mock, but I think McDermott would flip a table if beane took Mitchell and Johnny Newton is still on the board. It's a position of need this year, and a massive need in the coming years and he's arguably the best in the draft.

 

I could see McDermott himself sprinting to the podium to turn in the card if Newton is still there.

 

It is not a position of need. Johnny Newton is a 3T. The Bills have one of their best players at 3T, they just paid him and he just had a career year. You can't line Newton up with Oliver in anything more than pure pass rush downs. And if they are going to spend a 1st round pick on a 3T and then force fit him into a 1T shaped hole.... well they deserve everything they get.

Edited April 1 by GunnerBill