What's Wrong With The Passing O?

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

That doesn't bode well for the playoffs when they play more of the same. 

It does when we’re winning the games

[Jerome007]

3 hours ago, motorj said:

If that were the case then he is effectively hurting the team. Have some one fully healthy step up, I'd like to see what Shakir or Kincaid could've done

He is still the #1 WR regardless. Just a diminished one.  Not like he becomes a non-factor or Von Miller like...

[Maine-iac]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I just watched all-22 of the first two drives of this game and my first takeaway is that we need to start designing the reads to account for the fact that Diggs is no longer a reliable 1v1 option.

 

So first passing play of the game is blown up by McGovern and Torrence. Allen comes out of play action, literally everybody is going to be open but he already has pressure in his face by two interior rushers and the play is DOA.

 

2nd passing play - Allen immediately looks at Diggs running a whip route 1v1 to the short right side of the field. Diggs never comes close to separating. In the past this has been an automatic completion. By the time Allen moves to his next read the OL has been beat and he launches a very low percentage pass to Kincaid downfield just to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the field Shakir actually beats his man on a deep out route. It's a beautiful route. But Allen started with Diggs on the other side (presumably because this is the built in #1 matchup against man coverage) and that was that.

 

3rd play - This is right after our INT so we have the ball inside the 20. Diggs runs a post corner to the left. Allen starts by checking middle field safety who runs right to cover Kincaid. After confirming Diggs is now in single coverage he stares him down but once again Diggs never comes close to separating so Allen ends up throwing the ball away as pressure gets there (not the OL's fault - it's a 6 man blitz). If Allen had looked to replace the blitz with the throw he would have hit Shakir running a quick slant off the line for probably a 6 or 7 yard gain. But apparently his read is automatically look at Diggs if Diggs is in 1v1 coverage.

 

The 4th passing play is Cook dropping the screen on 3rd down.

 

I don't have time for more right now, but my big takeaway is they need to remove Diggs 1v1 in man coverage as an automatic read. Diggs just isn't that guy right now.

Stating the obvious but it creates a two fold problem.  One is that Diggs isn't getting open and 2 is that Allen is not looking at the guys who are getting open waiting on Diggs.  Hopefully Diggs is just nicked up and will return to some form of himself soon or Allen comes off him a little quicker in progressions.

Edited January 1 by Maine-iac

[Coach Tuesday]

I wonder if some of it is that they’re spending more of their practice time working on the running game, at the expense of reps and working on precision in the passing game. 

[Rockinon]

If Diggs is the 1st read so much, maybe defenses are picking up on that. Maybe that's the problem. Perhaps Shakir, a TE or Cook need to be the first read sometimes. Diggs can still be the 1st read...just less often.

[Drew21PA]

17 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It does when we’re winning the games

Firm believer that iron sharpens iron

 

 

[Maine-iac]

Thinking more about it, it also explains the horrible WR screens.  They're running them to Diggs trying to get him touches but if he's not right and can't cut and make guys miss it would explain why he's not doing much with them.  

[Coach Tuesday]

I know Diggs had a back issue, but the way he’s failing to cut it seems more like a groin issue to me.

[bouds]

31 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I just watched all-22 of the first two drives of this game and my first takeaway is that we need to start designing the reads to account for the fact that Diggs is no longer a reliable 1v1 option.

 

So first passing play of the game is blown up by McGovern and Torrence. Allen comes out of play action, literally everybody is going to be open but he already has pressure in his face by two interior rushers and the play is DOA.

 

2nd passing play - Allen immediately looks at Diggs running a whip route 1v1 to the short right side of the field. Diggs never comes close to separating. In the past this has been an automatic completion. By the time Allen moves to his next read the OL has been beat and he launches a very low percentage pass to Kincaid downfield just to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the field Shakir actually beats his man on a deep out route. It's a beautiful route. But Allen started with Diggs on the other side (presumably because this is the built in #1 matchup against man coverage) and that was that.

 

3rd play - This is right after our INT so we have the ball inside the 20. Diggs runs a post corner to the left. Allen starts by checking middle field safety who runs right to cover Kincaid. After confirming Diggs is now in single coverage he stares him down but once again Diggs never comes close to separating so Allen ends up throwing the ball away as pressure gets there (not the OL's fault - it's a 6 man blitz). If Allen had looked to replace the blitz with the throw he would have hit Shakir running a quick slant off the line for probably a 6 or 7 yard gain. But apparently his read is automatically look at Diggs if Diggs is in 1v1 coverage.

 

The 4th passing play is Cook dropping the screen on 3rd down.

 

I don't have time for more right now, but my big takeaway is they need to remove Diggs 1v1 in man coverage as an automatic read. Diggs just isn't that guy right now.

Remember that deep out to Shakir, he was wide open, but Allen never really went that way.  Shakir hasn’t had enough opportunities given how often he seems to get open, he’s a crafty sob. 

[Rockinon]

10 minutes ago, bouds said:

Remember that deep out to Shakir, he was wide open, but Allen never really went that way.  Shakir hasn’t had enough opportunities given how often he seems to get open, he’s a crafty sob. 

I think Shakir is getting more and more touches. I'm thinking Allen needs to change up his progressions. Maybe look to him or a TE before making Diggs the first read.

[Jrb1979]

41 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It does when we’re winning the games

Again look at the offense of those teams they played.  The Pats and the Chargers offense struggle on offense. You play those games against San Francisco or Baltimore and I'm not so sure they win. 

[Captain_Quint]

32 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Thinking more about it, it also explains the horrible WR screens.  They're running them to Diggs trying to get him touches but if he's not right and can't cut and make guys miss it would explain why he's not doing much with them.  

It's a way to keep other teams honest and show them that they still need to pay attention to him. Unfortunately, it's not working that great. Someone else pointed out that against the chargers, there were multiple times when it was Stef vs a safety 1v1 and he was covered with no problem on his route. That allows a team to spy Allen and Cook out of the backfield, or more attention on Kincaid.  

[John from Riverside]

16 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Again look at the offense of those teams they played.  The Pats and the Chargers offense struggle on offense. You play those games against San Francisco or Baltimore and I'm not so sure they win. 

Kansas City and Dallas remember we’re on a four gang winning streak here

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I just watched all-22 of the first two drives of this game and my first takeaway is that we need to start designing the reads to account for the fact that Diggs is no longer a reliable 1v1 option.

 

So first passing play of the game is blown up by McGovern and Torrence. Allen comes out of play action, literally everybody is going to be open but he already has pressure in his face by two interior rushers and the play is DOA.

 

2nd passing play - Allen immediately looks at Diggs running a whip route 1v1 to the short right side of the field. Diggs never comes close to separating. In the past this has been an automatic completion. By the time Allen moves to his next read the OL has been beat and he launches a very low percentage pass to Kincaid downfield just to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the field Shakir actually beats his man on a deep out route. It's a beautiful route. But Allen started with Diggs on the other side (presumably because this is the built in #1 matchup against man coverage) and that was that.

 

3rd play - This is right after our INT so we have the ball inside the 20. Diggs runs a post corner to the left. Allen starts by checking middle field safety who runs right to cover Kincaid. After confirming Diggs is now in single coverage he stares him down but once again Diggs never comes close to separating so Allen ends up throwing the ball away as pressure gets there (not the OL's fault - it's a 6 man blitz). If Allen had looked to replace the blitz with the throw he would have hit Shakir running a quick slant off the line for probably a 6 or 7 yard gain. But apparently his read is automatically look at Diggs if Diggs is in 1v1 coverage.

 

The 4th passing play is Cook dropping the screen on 3rd down.

 

I don't have time for more right now, but my big takeaway is they need to remove Diggs 1v1 in man coverage as an automatic read. Diggs just isn't that guy right now.

 

Coming back to this, I watched the next several the plays through Allen's INT. Here's what I saw:

 

5th passing play - 1st and 10 from the Bills 38. This is the first play I've seen where I have no clue what Allen is looking at. I think ultimately he gets caught staring at the rush. Kincaid runs a quick hitch to the short right. I don't mind Allen passing him up, he would have been tackled immediately for a 3 gain. But then Knox comes open in a clear passing window right behind Kincaid. From the view behind Allen it is a wide open passing lane in his vision IF he stands in the pocket and lets it develop a second longer. Instead Allen looks down at the rush and then bails a clean pocket left. He ends up throwing it away. I think he let earlier interior pressure get into his head and affect his process here.

 

6th passing play - Protection breakdown on a 4 man rush. The MLB comes right up the middle unblocked. Either Morse or Torrence screwed up here. Morse helps double McGovern's man, Torrence helps double Brown's man. Nobody picks up the MLB so the play is DOA.

Also frustrating on this play is that Diggs could have drawn a DPI if he had made an effort. While running right away from the free rusher Allen launches a prayer deep to Diggs. If Diggs stops and comes back for the ball it's almost certainly DPI as we see with underthrown deep passes all the time. Instead he lets it bounce harmlessly off the DB's back.

 

7th passing play - Torrence is dusted by Barmore off the snap. This is as bad any rep we got from Saffold last year. Because of immediate pressure Allen takes a quick pass to Sherfield who drops it, but he would have been tackled short of the sticks here on 3rd down anyways. No time for routes to develop past the sticks so once again the play is DOA.

 

8th passing play - 3rd and goal from the 6. Super tight window throw to Kincaid that is off by about half a foot. It's a keyhole throw that they just barely don't connect on. I don't really blame anyone here, it is tight coverage at the most difficult area of the field.

I have seen people point out Shakir gets open on the opposite end of the field but Allen was never looking that way. He has Diggs and Kincaid to the short side of the field against man coverage. A pass to Shakir would have required to start with his eyes on that side because of how far away from the ball Shakir ends up. Davis manages to take out 3 defenders on a rub route but Allen couldn't have predicted that.

 

9th passing play - 1st and 10 from the Pats 46. Allen misses by a couple inches on a rail route to Cook. I don't see any major mechanical issues here, he just overthrew it.

 

10th passing play - Now 2nd and 10. It's a mesh route where Allen ends up throwing the ball at Davis's feet when a free rusher gets in his face. I don't think any single player is at fault here, the Pats defensive scheme just won the play. Davis kind of screws up on his mesh getting around the MLB and trips up Morris who's running the opposite mesh but eh it's hard to blame him. Pats blitz gets a free rusher home before anyone has a chance to get open so Allen wisely dirts it.

 

11th passing play - Now 3rd and 10. Either Allen and Sherfield aren't on the same page or Allen totally misses the pass high and wide. Sherfield runs a deep hitch and finishes the route with inside leverage. Allen throws the pass out to the sideline. I don't know what happened here. It was either a minor miscommunication or Allen sailed it.

 

12th passing play - The INT. I don't know if this is my bias showing but I really don't blame Allen here. First of all there is no short play here other than a late developing check down to Murrary. It's a two man shot play all the way and based on Sherfield's route (more on that on a bit) I think the play was always designed to go to Kincaid. Allen is reading Alex Austin who clearly shows leverage towards Sherfield running the podt route. However, Sherfield totally dogs his route. It's embarrassing. He does not convince anyone that the ball is coming in his direction. As a result I believe Austin notices this and quickly spins away from Sherfield just as Allen is releasing the ball. Really smart play from Austin here recognizing that Sherfield was running a clear out route (with assistance from Sherfield's poor acting job) and unfortunately he drops off Sherfield right when Allen is releasing the ball so he ends up in perfect position to undercut the pass and intercept it. If you want evidence that Belichick still has his coaching chops, this play was clearly the result of brilliant coaching on a bottom of the roster caliber player.

 

So all in all I saw one truly awful play from Allen where he unnecessarily ran out of a clean pocket and missed an open passing window. He missed a pass to Cook by a couple inches and a pass to Kincaid by less than that. I saw a ton of protection breakdowns from Torrence in particular, he had a brutal first half. Sherfield was a net negative. A drop, an incomplete pass in his direction, and poor effort on a clear out route leading to an INT. Diggs is unable to separate 1v1. Davis might as well not be a WR, he is either blocking or running rub and clearing routes.

 

Just a very messy set of passing plays for a multitude of reasons. Personally I think the central reason still is that we don't have pass catchers that separate quickly. Everything tends to be too long developing so when our IOL doesn't hold up the play is DOA.

[Jrb1979]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Kansas City and Dallas remember we’re on a four gang winning streak here

Dallas is the only one with a good offense. KC has struggled to score in many games this season. 

[Jrb1979]

 

 

This video is still relevant a month later. Analytics and stats show a good offense but video says otherwise 

[Maine-iac]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Coming back to this, I watched the next several the plays through Allen's INT. Here's what I saw:

 

5th passing play - 1st and 10 from the Bills 38. This is the first play I've seen where I have no clue what Allen is looking at. I think ultimately he gets caught staring at the rush. Kincaid runs a quick hitch to the short right. I don't mind Allen passing him up, he would have been tackled immediately for a 3 gain. But then Knox comes open in a clear passing window right behind Kincaid. From the view behind Allen it is a wide open passing lane in his vision IF he stands in the pocket and lets it develop a second longer. Instead Allen looks down at the rush and then bails a clean pocket left. He ends up throwing it away. I think he let earlier interior pressure get into his head and affect his process here.

 

6th passing play - Protection breakdown on a 4 man rush. The MLB comes right up the middle unblocked. Either Morse or Torrence screwed up here. Morse helps double McGovern's man, Torrence helps double Brown's man. Nobody picks up the MLB so the play is DOA.

Also frustrating on this play is that Diggs could have drawn a DPI if he had made an effort. While running right away from the free rusher Allen launches a prayer deep to Diggs. If Diggs stops and comes back for the ball it's almost certainly DPI as we see with underthrown deep passes all the time. Instead he lets it bounce harmlessly off the DB's back.

 

7th passing play - Torrence is dusted by Barmore off the snap. This is as bad any rep we got from Saffold last year. Because of immediate pressure Allen takes a quick pass to Sherfield who drops it, but he would have been tackled short of the sticks here on 3rd down anyways. No time for routes to develop past the sticks so once again the play is DOA.

 

8th passing play - 3rd and goal from the 6. Super tight window throw to Kincaid that is off by about half a foot. It's a keyhole throw that they just barely don't connect on. I don't really blame anyone here, it is tight coverage at the most difficult area of the field.

I have seen people point out Shakir gets open on the opposite end of the field but Allen was never looking that way. He has Diggs and Kincaid to the short side of the field against man coverage. A pass to Shakir would have required to start with his eyes on that side because of how far away from the ball Shakir ends up. Davis manages to take out 3 defenders on a rub route but Allen couldn't have predicted that.

 

9th passing play - 1st and 10 from the Pats 46. Allen misses by a couple inches on a rail route to Cook. I don't see any major mechanical issues here, he just overthrew it.

 

10th passing play - Now 2nd and 10. It's a mesh route where Allen ends up throwing the ball at Davis's feet when a free rusher gets in his face. I don't think any single player is at fault here, the Pats defensive scheme just won the play. Davis kind of screws up on his mesh getting around the MLB and trips up Morris who's running the opposite mesh but eh it's hard to blame him. Pats blitz gets a free rusher home before anyone has a chance to get open so Allen wisely dirts it.

 

11th passing play - Now 3rd and 10. Either Allen and Sherfield aren't on the same page or Allen totally misses the pass high and wide. Sherfield runs a deep hitch and finishes the route with inside leverage. Allen throws the pass out to the sideline. I don't know what happened here. It was either a minor miscommunication or Allen sailed it.

 

12th passing play - The INT. I don't know if this is my bias showing but I really don't blame Allen here. First of all there is no short play here other than a late developing check down to Murrary. It's a two man shot play all the way and based on Sherfield's route (more on that on a bit) I think the play was always designed to go to Kincaid. Allen is reading Alex Austin who clearly shows leverage towards Sherfield running the podt route. However, Sherfield totally dogs his route. It's embarrassing. He does not convince anyone that the ball is coming in his direction. As a result I believe Austin notices this and quickly spins away from Sherfield just as Allen is releasing the ball. Really smart play from Austin here recognizing that Sherfield was running a clear out route (with assistance from Sherfield's poor acting job) and unfortunately he drops off Sherfield right when Allen is releasing the ball so he ends up in perfect position to undercut the pass and intercept it. If you want evidence that Belichick still has his coaching chops, this play was clearly the result of brilliant coaching on a bottom of the roster caliber player.

 

So all in all I saw one truly awful play from Allen where he unnecessarily ran out of a clean pocket and missed an open passing window. He missed a pass to Cook by a couple inches and a pass to Kincaid by less than that. I saw a ton of protection breakdowns from Torrence in particular, he had a brutal first half. Sherfield was a net negative. A drop, an incomplete pass in his direction, and poor effort on a clear out route leading to an INT. Diggs is unable to separate 1v1. Davis might as well not be a WR, he is either blocking or running rub and clearing routes.

 

Just a very messy set of passing plays for a multitude of reasons. Personally I think the central reason still is that we don't have pass catchers that separate quickly. Everything tends to be too long developing so when our IOL doesn't hold up the play is DOA.

Pats had just made it 14 to 20.  We don't need to be turning the ball over on 1st down anywhere on the field and the guy wasn't open.  If the Pats kicker wasn't a turd we have another 4th quarter fiasco.  I guess guys not getting open goes hand in hand with throwing more picks because he doesn't know where to go with the ball but there's got to be a way not to spot the other team an extra possession every game.  I feel like there are passes missing in there somewhere because I remember Josh being pretty off with his throws with some of them being caught and some not.  I haven't re-watched any of the game though so maybe I'm remembering it wrong.

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I feel like there are passes missing in there somewhere because I remember Josh being pretty off with his throws with some of them being caught and some not.  I haven't re-watched any of the game though so maybe I'm remembering it wrong.

 

Sorry I forgot to mention I skipped the entire drive leading up to the INT just for time's sake. As far I know the rest of that drive was fine, I just wanted to break down the INT. But I included every other pass before that drive that didn't end with a scramble.

 

18 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Pats had just made it 14 to 20.  We don't need to be turning the ball over on 1st down anywhere on the field and the guy wasn't open.

 

If you want to complain about the play call I can respect that. Our shot plays have been terrible all year, more likely to end in an INT than a positive play. I didn't feel a need to be aggressive there considering the kind of game this was becoming. Only two guys running routes and both deep, I don't get it.

 

But for the play itself I genuinely believe Allen executed it like he was supposed to. As soon as Austin appears to follow Sherfield on the post route, he has Kincaid in single coverage on the shot play. That's exactly the look they wanted. If you have a chance to watch the all 22 of that play you'll see what I mean. Austin spins away from Sherfield as soon as Allen is releasing the ball, it's uncanny. Like at the exact right moment he diagnosed where the ball would be and got himself in position to pick it off.

[QCity]

On 12/31/2023 at 7:17 PM, Bferra13 said:

I think its Josh.

 

It is. But this board will twist itself into knots for 100+ pages before admitting it.

[FilthyBeast]

It's not so much the passing offense, as it is the offense as a whole.

 

This team simply does not know who they want to be....a finesse passing attack, uptempto, power running, physical smash mouth, etc....a very poor frankenstein creation of all these which is why Dorsey was fired after 10 games and why Brady will also be looking for a new job soon if things don't change quickly.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

The nice thing about playing Miami is that we know exactly what they are going to do. We can have any short route we want. Hopefully we just chip away. 

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

The nice thing about playing Miami is that we know exactly what they are going to do. We can have any short route we want. Hopefully we just chip away. 

hasn’t Allen shredded Vic F. Defenses? Going back to that game in Denver a few years ago

[UKBillFan]

2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

Again look at the offense of those teams they played.  The Pats and the Chargers offense struggle on offense. You play those games against San Francisco or Baltimore and I'm not so sure they win. 

If the Bills match last season I’d think it a minor miracle as the offense seems to be bottoming out now. I’m concerned about getting passed the likes of the Texans, Steelers and Browns, let alone the Ravens and 49ers.

[Maine-iac]

22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sorry I forgot to mention I skipped the entire drive leading up to the INT just for time's sake. As far I know the rest of that drive was fine, I just wanted to break down the INT. But I included every other pass before that drive that didn't end with a scramble.

 

 

If you want to complain about the play call I can respect that. Our shot plays have been terrible all year, more likely to end in an INT than a positive play. I didn't feel a need to be aggressive there considering the kind of game this was becoming. Only two guys running routes and both deep, I don't get it.

 

But for the play itself I genuinely believe Allen executed it like he was supposed to. As soon as Austin appears to follow Sherfield on the post route, he has Kincaid in single coverage on the shot play. That's exactly the look they wanted. If you have a chance to watch the all 22 of that play you'll see what I mean. Austin spins away from Sherfield as soon as Allen is releasing the ball, it's uncanny. Like at the exact right moment he diagnosed where the ball would be and got himself in position to pick it off.

I haven't seen the all 22 but that play was shown a number of times.  Kincaid wasn't out running anyone and he was well covered even without the second guy going back and picking it off.  Looks like (on my dvr not All 22) if he hits Johnson early leaking out of the back field he could have picked up some yards.  That wouldn't be as sexy as a bomb to Kincaid but that pass to Kincaid was never going to happen.  Two plays before he has a great throw to Kincaid and then he kind of dirts one to Shakir but he picks it off the ground.  He might have had something going if he just kept moving the chains.  When it happens every single game it's kind of a thing.

Edited January 2 by Maine-iac

[SlamnSam]

On 12/31/2023 at 5:26 PM, BlazinBill said:

We just need weapons- we keep swinging and missing with mediocre players based off salary cap - need to draft talent period - just need to make sure we hit on that talent

Yep Beane keeps missing. The problem is the O line. Every team we play the QBs have all day to look for outlets. Josh has 0.32 before two monsters are on him from the other team while the O line watch.

[HappyDays]

32 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I haven't seen the all 22 but that play was shown a number of times.  Kincaid wasn't out running anyone and he was well covered even without the second guy going back and picking it off.

 

Trust me, Kincaid is extremely open. He has like two steps on his guy. If anything you could say Allen underthrew it a bit but either way Kincaid is in single coverage and has a strong chance of completing the catch or drawing a DPI. That all assumes that Austin stays with Sherfield which of course does not happen.

 

If after watching the all-22 you think Allen should have checked it down to the RB for a couple yards, then you'll never want him attempting any vertical shot in any situation unless it's a totally blown coverage. And if you believe that, that's fine. I myself have said I would like us to remove these designed shot plays from our playbook. But as far as executing the play Allen made the right read and threw the ball where he was supposed to. The play call was aggressive, not the throw.

[HappyDays]

@Maine-iac I don't know how to take videos from my phone but I took a screenshot. This is what Allen sees when he starts gearing up to launch the ball:

 

 

#26 is Alex Austin. His back is turned to Kincaid and he is following Sherfield's post route. I assume Austin is Allen's read here.

 

Here's what it looks like the moment the ball is leaving Allen's hands like half a second later:

 

 

Now Austin has totally spun away from Sherfield's route and quickly develops leverage on Kincaid.

 

In fact looking at the play again now I see the middle field safety pointing in Kincaid's direction:

 

 

(sorry for the poor quality, I zoomed in but you can kind of make out the safety pointing past Sherfield towards Kincaid)

 

So now I am positive the safety told Austin where the ball was going and directed him back to Kincaid at the exact right moment.

 

In real time you can see Sherfield not putting full effort into his route. If he was really selling it he would be a few yards further to the right and would have likely drawn Austin with him. Instead the spacing on the routes is a tad too close and the DBs back there are able to read the play in time to impact it.

[Maine-iac]

 

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

@Maine-iac I don't know how to take videos from my phone but I took a screenshot. This is what Allen sees when he starts gearing up to launch the ball:

 

 

#26 is Alex Austin. His back is turned to Kincaid and he is following Sherfield's post route. I assume Austin is Allen's read here.

 

Here's what it looks like the moment the ball is leaving Allen's hands like half a second later:

 

 

Now Austin has totally spun away from Sherfield's route and quickly develops leverage on Kincaid.

 

In fact looking at the play again now I see the middle field safety pointing in Kincaid's direction:

 

 

(sorry for the poor quality, I zoomed in but you can kind of make out the safety pointing past Sherfield towards Kincaid)

 

So now I am positive the safety told Austin where the ball was going and directed him back to Kincaid at the exact right moment.

 

In real time you can see Sherfield not putting full effort into his route. If he was really selling it he would be a few yards further to the right and would have likely drawn Austin with him. Instead the spacing on the routes is a tad too close and the DBs back there are able to read the play in time to impact it.

I'm not sure even without 28 coming over that Kincaid was out running 30 to the ball.  Maybe it's just because Allen under threw it again but 30 was there in coverage when the ball came down and 28 was in front of both of them to intercept it.  All 22 only confirms my original idea that if Allen leads the back as he sneaks out of the back field he's going to run for 15 yards before anyone gets to him.

 

Went and looked at the -4 yard swing pass to Cook later in the game and that's again because the swing pass is too late and too wide and gives the one defender time to get by the one blocker (Gilliam I think).  Allen swings that pass quicker and tighter and Cook runs right by the defender.  I'm not going to totally blame Allen (he's been better of late) but as a team we are one of the worst at getting the backs into passing game.  Both plays are horrible execution where seemingly plays are available.

[Maine-iac]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

@Maine-iac I don't know how to take videos from my phone but I took a screenshot. This is what Allen sees when he starts gearing up to launch the ball:

 

Johnson sneaking out with a LB late covering.  You can see him after the LB peels to cover him in your picture but Allen missed it at this point.  My picture shows him leaving the backfield and looking for the ball that wasn't coming.

 

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I'm not sure even without 28 coming over that Kincaid was out running 30 to the ball.

 

That isn't how Allen can think about the play though. His job is to throw that pass if Kincaid has a step on his man and Austin follows the post.

 

Like I said I am not a fan of this play call in this moment. Still Allen is just executing the play call. It sounds like you just prefer check downs over vertical shots in general because it really doesn't get more open than that.

 

Allen did underthrow the ball, I won't argue that. I think in situations like that where the intended receiver has room to spare QBs tend to cheat towards underthrowing it a bit instead of risking an overthrow. Give Kincaid a chance to make a play or make it almost impossible for the DB to break it up without committing DPI.

 

8 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Johnson sneaking out with a LB late covering.  You can see him after the LB peels to cover him in your picture but Allen missed it at this point.  My picture shows him leaving the backfield and looking for the ball that wasn't coming.

 

Allen didn't miss anything. Johnson is there as a check down if both downfield routes are covered up. From Allen's perspective that was not the case so he took the shot.

 

It seems like you just want the RBs to be more involved as pass catchers and that's fine, but don't let that impact the analysis of Allen's process on this play in particular. To me it's a greedy play call that features poor route spacing, poor salesmanship from Sherfield, and an underthrow from Allen. I have no issues with Allen's decision making here.

[Maine-iac]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That isn't how Allen can think about the play though. His job is to throw that pass if Kincaid has a step on his man and Austin follows the post.

 

Like I said I am not a fan of this play call in this moment. Still Allen is just executing the play call. It sounds like you just prefer check downs over vertical shots in general because it really doesn't get more open than that.

 

Allen did underthrow the ball, I won't argue that. I think in situations like that where the intended receiver has room to spare QBs tend to cheat towards underthrowing it a bit instead of risking an overthrow. Give Kincaid a chance to make a play or make it almost impossible for the DB to break it up without committing DPI.

 

 

Allen didn't miss anything. Johnson is there as a check down if both downfield routes are covered up. From Allen's perspective that was not the case so he took the shot.

 

It seems like you just want the RBs to be more involved as pass catchers and that's fine, but don't let that impact the analysis of Allen's process on this play in particular. To me it's a greedy play call that features poor route spacing, poor salesmanship from Sherfield, and an underthrow from Allen. I have no issues with Allen's decision making here.

You are right Kincaid had a step and I guess that justifies the throw.  The unfortunate part is that only leads to the conclusion that Allen has become really bad at hitting anyone down field.  He's badly missing deep throws most of the time.  Mostly short.  If he overthrows that pass I'm not sure even a second guy gets the pick there.  The pick was easy because it was so underthrown.

Edited January 2 by Maine-iac

[HappyDays]

Just now, Maine-iac said:

You are right Kincaid had a step and I guess that justifies the throw to some.  The unfortunate part is that only leads to the conclusion that Allen has become really bad at hitting anyone down field.  He's badly missing deep throws most of the time.  Mostly short.  If he overthrows that pass I'm not sure even a second guy gets the pick there.  The pick was easy because it was so underthrown.

 

Most completed deep passes that I see across the NFL are underthrown. It's not the norm that you see one like that perfectly dropped in the bucket and allowing the pass catcher to coast into the endzone. It happens but it's low percentage unless it's someone like Tyreek Hill where it's practically impossible to overthrow them so you can be more loose with the depth of the throw. Typically completed deep passes involve the intended receiver slowing down or completely stopping and making a play at the catch point because they've given themselves enough space to gain leverage.

 

I really do think that if Austin hadn't broken back towards Kincaid it would have been either a completed pass or a DPI. It's almost impossible for a DB two steps behind his man and with his back to the QB to disrupt that pass without committing DPI.

[BuffaloRebound]

Seems like Josh doesn’t have his fastball, which might also explain the general indecision.  Let’s hope he’s letting it rip on sunday.  

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

@Maine-iac I don't know how to take videos from my phone but I took a screenshot. This is what Allen sees when he starts gearing up to launch the ball:

 

 

#26 is Alex Austin. His back is turned to Kincaid and he is following Sherfield's post route. I assume Austin is Allen's read here.

 

Here's what it looks like the moment the ball is leaving Allen's hands like half a second later:

 

 

Now Austin has totally spun away from Sherfield's route and quickly develops leverage on Kincaid.

 

In fact looking at the play again now I see the middle field safety pointing in Kincaid's direction:

 

 

(sorry for the poor quality, I zoomed in but you can kind of make out the safety pointing past Sherfield towards Kincaid)

 

So now I am positive the safety told Austin where the ball was going and directed him back to Kincaid at the exact right moment.

 

In real time you can see Sherfield not putting full effort into his route. If he was really selling it he would be a few yards further to the right and would have likely drawn Austin with him. Instead the spacing on the routes is a tad too close and the DBs back there are able to read the play in time to impact it.

Kurt Warner has mentioned this about buffalo. Spacing and braking off routes too soon is an issue. 

[Dr.Sack]

I am wondering if this might be a vision issue. Josh might need glasses. I am reminded of Wild Thing Ricky Vaughn. Let the kid rip it. 

[Maine-iac]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Most completed deep passes that I see across the NFL are underthrown. It's not the norm that you see one like that perfectly dropped in the bucket and allowing the pass catcher to coast into the endzone. It happens but it's low percentage unless it's someone like Tyreek Hill where it's practically impossible to overthrow them so you can be more loose with the depth of the throw. Typically completed deep passes involve the intended receiver slowing down or completely stopping and making a play at the catch point because they've given themselves enough space to gain leverage.

 

I really do think that if Austin hadn't broken back towards Kincaid it would have been either a completed pass or a DPI. It's almost impossible for a DB two steps behind his man and with his back to the QB to disrupt that pass without committing DPI.

I just don't see the throw.  Kincaid isn't fast enough (step or not) to out run a corner down the field and 28 was already breaking on it before Allen threw it.  I do know a rb covered by a DT is a huge mismatch and I'll continue to say that's my play all day.  At the very least if you are going to heave it up there to someone who's only advantage is their size you better get it to them so they can jump for it and not leave it 5 yards short.  Long and short of it I'm sick of the turnovers.  That's probably why I like Brady running the ball.  If you can't play a game with a lead against a toothless offense without turning it over you are just asking to lose winnable games.  Thank god NE's kicker sucks.

[GoBills808]

We don't have a single pass catcher who is top10 at his respective position

 

That's what's wrong w the pass offense

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Stating the obvious but it creates a two fold problem.  One is that Diggs isn't getting open and 2 is that Allen is not looking at the guys who are getting open waiting on Diggs.  Hopefully Diggs is just nicked up and will return to some form of himself soon or Allen comes off him a little quicker in progressions.

I’m trying to understand this Diggs is hurt narrative that has started. 

On 12/31/2023 at 7:03 PM, HappyDays said:

We came into the season knowing that we didn't have a #2 WR on the roster. Now it turns out we don't have a true #1 either. We have no speed, no YAC ability, below average separation and catch ability from our WR corps. That's why our passing offense has looked so inconsistent, there is zero margin for error.

Yes, Kincaid was the only real talent the Bills added in the off-season and we’ve seen how that has turned out this season.

Maybe he can build off his 87-yard performance Sunday, but nothing has really carried over in this offense week to week. 
 

Edited January 2 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

@Maine-iac I don't know how to take videos from my phone but I took a screenshot. This is what Allen sees when he starts gearing up to launch the ball:

 

 

#26 is Alex Austin. His back is turned to Kincaid and he is following Sherfield's post route. I assume Austin is Allen's read here.

 

Here's what it looks like the moment the ball is leaving Allen's hands like half a second later:

 

 

Now Austin has totally spun away from Sherfield's route and quickly develops leverage on Kincaid.

 

In fact looking at the play again now I see the middle field safety pointing in Kincaid's direction:

 

 

(sorry for the poor quality, I zoomed in but you can kind of make out the safety pointing past Sherfield towards Kincaid)

 

So now I am positive the safety told Austin where the ball was going and directed him back to Kincaid at the exact right moment.

 

In real time you can see Sherfield not putting full effort into his route. If he was really selling it he would be a few yards further to the right and would have likely drawn Austin with him. Instead the spacing on the routes is a tad too close and the DBs back there are able to read the play in time to impact it.

 

Also - they only rush 3 here on this 1st and 15

 

Allen has problems when 8 guys are in coverage - most QBs do.  
 

But look at the Pats zone discipline they are truly covering every blade of grass.  
 

A run here probably gets you 5 plus but BB handed it to Brady all day confident on this play we were throwing.  

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I’m trying to understand this Diggs is hurt narrative that has started. 

Playing barely 50% of offensive snaps over last 3 games will do it