The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[strive_for_five_guy]

16 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

These scenarios will be disposable after this weekend. More likely is our winning the division or out of the playoffs with the results of the Dolphins game. 

If Miami wins their next two games, our only hope will be as a wild card.  And while Miami winning their next two is not probable, it’s even less probable that 10+ other games go a certain way.  My point is, even if we win all of our games, Wild Card just as easily could be our path in still, versus winning the division.

[Buffalo03]

12 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Just to make it easier if the Bills win on Saturday we need only one of the following teams to lose this weekend to control our own destiny:

-Fish, Jags, Bungles, Brownies, or Colts

I'm pretty sure I saw if the Bengals lose Saturday before we play and we win, we would be in a playoff spot and no matter what the other outcomes are in the other games, we don't fall out of it. We can fall from 6th to 7th but won't lose a spot. From there, just keep winning

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

I don't need a configurator, I have math.

For example (here is one scenario)

 

Bills win out = 11-6

 

Texans beat the Browns, Titans, Colts = Are 11-6

Browns beat the Bengals and Jets  = Are 11-6

Ravens lose their last three = Are 11-6

Result

Browns win the division at 11-6, winning the tie-breaker over the Ravens.

the Ravens, Texans, and Browns are the wild cards. 

Bills would be out.

Again, the Browns losing against the Texans is not what we want, regardless of Bills finishing 11-6 or not.

Well yea if the browns can win the division and win a wildcard at the same time then that changes things 😂. I’m still tryin to work out what would really happen with the games you picked but the bills would be in I’m almost positive because you killed off the colts and bengals 

[Buffalo03]

12 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Belichick went 11-5 with Matt freaking Cassel.

On a team that went 16-0 the year before and an extremely easy schedule 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Buffalo03

[frostbitmic]

I think the more likely scenario there ...

 

1. Ravens 13-4

2. Bills       11-6

3. Chiefs   11-6

4. Jaguars 10-7

5. Browns 11-6

6. Miami   10-7

7. Colts     10-7

 

In this scenario the Bills would see the Dolphins and the Chiefs in Buffalo... OOOPS ... My bad. The Colts and winner of Dolphins vs Chiefs would come to Buffalo

Edited December 22, 2023 by frostbitmic

[Einstein]

6 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Well yea if the browns can win the division and win a wildcard at the same time then that changes things 😂. I’m still tryin to work out what would really happen with the games you picked but the bills would be in I’m almost positive because you killed off the colts and bengals 

 

You’re right.

 

There is something severely wrong with my spreadsheet, I just don’t know what it is.

 

Apologies.

 

There is still something missing though. If the Browns/Texans game didn’t matter (either result combined with the Bills winning out made the playoffs), then we wouldn’t have 99% odds. It would be 100%.

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Nineforty said:

This is as useful as a poopy flavored lollipop

 

Thank you for contributing to that taste.

[NeverOutNick]

18 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I think the more likely scenario there ...

 

1. Ravens 13-4

2. Bills       11-6

3. Chiefs   11-6

4. Jaguars 10-7

5. Browns 11-6

6. Miami   10-7

7. Colts     10-7

 

In this scenario the Bills would see the Dolphins and the Chiefs in Buffalo

This would be awesome 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

17 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You’re right.

 

There is something severely wrong with my spreadsheet, I just don’t know what it is.

 

Apologies.

 

There is still something missing though. If the Browns/Texans game didn’t matter (either result combined with the Bills winning out made the playoffs), then we wouldn’t have 99% odds. It would be 100%.

Yea I notice a lot when teams are already called guaranteed in and some of the configurators will say 99.9% still…I wonder if there’s some crazy 1 in a million chance that a bunch of people tie or something…or it’s just something about the way they run the simulations. Either way though it’s just a tiny piece of mind thing if that’s the first game that lets us control our own destiny so it’s not like you’re way off base…there’s still a bunch of different games that would have to go against us to cause that scenario so that Texans win probably would end up being meaningless for that anyway 

[Success]

The suspense is killing me.

 

All of our questions will be answered 2 weeks from Sunday.  The Bills should never do this to us again while Allen is QB.  There is no reason why we should be looking at scenarios to MAKE the playoffs in late December. 

 

Maybe that sounds entitled.  

 

 

[QLBillsFan]

It’s not somewhat possible. It’s a 1% possible. 

[Reks Ryan]

47 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Well yea if the browns can win the division and win a wildcard at the same time then that changes things 😂. I’m still tryin to work out what would really happen with the games you picked but the bills would be in I’m almost positive because you killed off the colts and bengals 

That would be a new and interesting wrinkle, to allow the Browns to get 2 playoff spots.  Make-up to Browns fans for all the bad karma and losses they've experienced in the last 50 years.   If the seeding matches up so they play themselves do they just get a bye?  And if they have to play 2 games the same weekend in different cities do they roll out a split squad, like in MLB spring training. 

 

@Einstein please help explain how this will work?

[26TrapDraw]

24 minutes ago, Success said:

The suspense is killing me.

 

All of our questions will be answered 2 weeks from Sunday.  The Bills should never do this to us again while Allen is QB.  There is no reason why we should be looking at scenarios to MAKE the playoffs in late December. 

 

Maybe that sounds entitled.  

 

 

We should feel entitled. With Allen as our QB we have the right. You know what else gives us the right to be entitled?

Sucking ass for 17 seasons straight.

[ColoradoBills]

All this "probable" scenario gets thrown out the window if the Steelers beat the Bengals tomorrow afternoon.

 

If that happens the Buffalo Bills hold their playoff destiny in their hands when they take the field tomorrow night.

[ImpactCorey]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

I don’t think “probable” means what you think it means, Corky. 

Like many words, probable has multiple meanings.

Quote

affording ground for belief.

I even lowered expectations by saying it "somewhat" or "in some part" had some grounds for believing it could happen.

 

So yeah, it means exactly what I intended, Grungy.

 

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

All this "probable" scenario gets thrown out the window if the Steelers beat the Bengals tomorrow afternoon.

 

If that happens the Buffalo Bills hold their playoff destiny in their hands when they take the field tomorrow night.

But…… Mason Rudolph

[Big Blitz]

Every simulation has Colts and Browns in

 

Texans missing at 10-7 and the other 7 loss teams losing a game. 
 

That’s why I’m rooting for Cleveland this week. And the Colts beat Houston week 18.  
 

Then 10-7 would get us in.  

[Nephilim17]

probable

adjective

 

likely to happen, to exist or to be true

 

 

possible

adjective

 [not usually before noun] that can be done or achieved

 

https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/us/

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, frostbitmic said:

I think the more likely scenario there ...

 

1. Ravens 13-4

2. Bills       11-6

3. Chiefs   11-6

4. Jaguars 10-7

5. Browns 11-6

6. Miami   10-7

7. Colts     10-7

 

In this scenario the Bills would see the Dolphins and the Chiefs in Buffalo... OOOPS ... My bad. The Colts and winner of Dolphins vs Chiefs would come to Buffalo

Actually, in this scenario, we’d either host the Chiefs in Divisional Round, or winner of Jags/Browns.  If Dolphins beat Chiefs, they’d go to Baltimore.

[ImpactCorey]

2 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

probable

adjective

 

likely to happen, to exist or to be true

 

 

possible

adjective

 

 [not usually before noun] that can be done or achieved

 

https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/us/

I'm not sure how reliable the Oxford "Learners" Dictionary is because it is targeted toward those just learning English (and therefore not a complete reference), but I generally rely on the Oxford English Dictionary which includes all 11 definitions including

 

Quote

Having an appearance of truth; that may in view of present evidence be reasonably expected to happen or be the case

 

[Gugny]

22 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

Like many words, probable has multiple meanings.

I even lowered expectations by saying it "somewhat" or "in some part" had some grounds for believing it could happen.

 

So yeah, it means exactly what I intended, Grungy.

 

“Likely to happen,” is the only definition. 
 

Even “somewhat likely to happen,” doesn’t fit here. 
 

Infact, “improbable” would be the most correct word to use - and that is the antonym of the word you chose, Chachi. 

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

But…… Mason Rudolph

 

I know, but the fact remains.

 

If the Bucs beat the Jags, same.

If the Falcons beat the Colts, same.

If the Texans beat the Browns, same.

If the Cowboys beat the Dolphins, same (Division).

 

IF that all goes bad there are 5 more scenarios next week.

[ImpactCorey]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

“Likely to happen,” is the only definition. 
 

Even “somewhat likely to happen,” doesn’t fit here. 
 

Infact, “improbable” would be the most correct word to use - and that is the antonym of the word you chose, Chachi. 

It may be the only definition you are aware of, but that does not make it so.  That said, nobody here is interested in me tutoring you and I'd rather stay on topic of the scenario I defined.

 

[NoSaint]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

“Likely to happen,” is the only definition. 
 

Even “somewhat likely to happen,” doesn’t fit here. 
 

Infact, “improbable” would be the most correct word to use - and that is the antonym of the word you chose, Chachi. 

it’s a really odd place for chachi to dig in his heels 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

It may be the only definition you are aware of, but that does not make it so.  That said, nobody here is interested in me tutoring you and I'd rather stay on topic of the scenario I defined.

 

Indulge me. I’m sure I’m not the only one who is eager to learn this secret “other definition” of probable. 
 

I suppose “probably” and “probably not,” both mean the same thing, too. 

[NoSaint]

3 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

It may be the only definition you are aware of, but that does not make it so.  That said, nobody here is interested in me tutoring you and I'd rather stay on topic of the scenario I defined.

 

I’m actually fascinated by you arguing that “incredibly unlikely” and “somewhat probable” can be interchanged here without changing the meaning 

 

please tutor away 

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, Gugny said:

Indulge me. I’m sure I’m not the only one who is eager to learn this secret “other definition” of probable. 
 

I suppose “probably” and “probably not,” both mean the same thing, too. 

Good grief, I already posted multiple entries from dictionaries all over the web.  Worst kept secret of all time.

 

[damj]

14 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

14 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I prefer wings on the bone.  Go Bills!

What brand of Ranch?

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, Sherlock Holmes said:

What brand of Ranch?

Blasphemy!!!

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 minute ago, ImpactCorey said:

Blasphemy!!!

Almost had you!

[damj]

2 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

What brand of Ranch?

[buffaloboyinATL]

14 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

Possible? Yes. Probable?  No.  One of your first sentences is the reason why.  Miami has not beaten a team with a winning record all season long. The odds of them beating 2 in a row is, in my opinion, highly unlikely.  

[TheWeatherMan]

14 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

It may be the only definition you are aware of, but that does not make it so.  That said, nobody here is interested in me tutoring you and I'd rather stay on topic of the scenario I defined.

 

Ignorance truly is bliss.  Your scenario has the same likelihood of happening as you admitting you don’t understand the meaning of probable.  

[strive_for_five_guy]

Here’s an idea:  If someone is concerned all 17 games are going to go against the Bills, put down a small sum of money on a parlay (or weekly parlay) on those exact outcomes.  And if the Bills win out and don’t make the playoffs, you will at least be rich in the end.

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, buffaloboyinATL said:

Possible? Yes. Probable?  No.  One of your first sentences is the reason why.  Miami has not beaten a team with a winning record all season long. The odds of them beating 2 in a row is, in my opinion, highly unlikely.  

For sure.  It is funny how one week I'm the biggest Cowboys hater and the next I'm their biggest fan. 😆

1 minute ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Here’s an idea:  If someone is concerned all 17 games are going to go against the Bills, put down a small sum of money on a parlay (or weekly parlay) on those exact outcomes.  And if the Bills win out and don’t make the playoffs, you will at least be rich in the end.

Not concerned.  It was a fun thought exercise to escape holiday stress for one night, though.  What do you think the payout would be for say.... $10?  😆

4 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Ignorance truly is bliss.  Your scenario has the same likelihood of happening as you admitting you don’t understand the meaning of probable.  

I'll take that parlay.

[strive_for_five_guy]

4 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

Not concerned.  It was a fun thought exercise to escape holiday stress for one night, though.  What do you think the payout would be for say.... $10?  😆

If I have it right, this weekend alone would be an 8-teamer, and you’d bring back $941 on MGM.  Roll that into the following weeks and several other games/outcomes, going to add up quickly for you.

[ImpactCorey]

19 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I’m actually fascinated by you arguing that “incredibly unlikely” and “somewhat probable” can be interchanged here without changing the meaning 

 

please tutor away 

And I'm impressed by how nasty people can get by the use of a single word.  You'd think I insulted people's mothers or something.

[Eastport bills]

2 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

If Miami wins their next two games, our only hope will be as a wild card.  And while Miami winning their next two is not probable, it’s even less probable that 10+ other games go a certain way.  My point is, even if we win all of our games, Wild Card just as easily could be our path in still, versus winning the division.

Sadly I can’t come up with a scenario where we get in without beating Miami.

[billsfan89]

Probable? No, possible yes. Just win against the Chargers and see what happens for now.