Which WR prospect will the Bengals screw us out of?

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We have to....we already have no WR2 and Diggs is approaching 30.  Josh's prime years start now!  We're going to need multiple wrs over the next 2 drafts. Harty, Hines and Sherfield are as good as gone.  Shakir looks promising but we have no idea what we have in Shorter.  The time to strike on young first contract wrs is now.  Hopefully it starts with Odunze!!

We have to trade up?  Huh?

3 hours ago, Dan in Owego said:

Currently a deep pool in free agency, would take some cap work but there is this Winfield dude that looks good to me🤔

Please no.  Love the player but I hope we don’t pay another S.  Winfield wants big bucks. No thx.  Go budget at S going forward.  Our all pros can’t even stop Hail Marys 

Edited November 29, 2023 by NewEra

[Dan in Owego]

28 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We have to trade up?  Huh?

Please no.  Love the player but I hope we don’t pay bother S.  Winfield wants big bucks. No thx.  Go budget at S going forward.  Our all pros can’t even stop Hail Marys 

Won't fight you on this, but please keep in mind since Sunday i've been drinking more than normal😬

[Gunsgoodtime]

16 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Well, normally everyone is shocked. Year after year we hear the Bills are up against it, and yet they manage to sign guys. And they make moves no one saw coming. 

 

It's never as bad as it's made out to be.

https://overthecap.com/calculator

 

Take a look.  We are are loosing a lot of players and going to have to sign vet minimums to fill the roster, maybe starters.  You guys are clueless that dont pay attention.  This roster will be way more different than previous years.  Some of you think we live in this salary heaven that dont exist.  Here is your salary spent for the near future...Con Miller 20m, bacckup TE Knox, 15m.  That's just 2.  We could move on.  That's 35m

Edited November 29, 2023 by Gunsgoodtime

[JerseyBills]

With emergence of Shakir and Kincaid, I'd like a WR but not rd 1 unless he's an elite prospect 

18 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

10 picks - likely expect bargain shopping in FA.  I probably wouldn't go 1st round playmaker with my very highly paid QB tbh - he needs to make the rest better because he costs like 25% of the cap.  Not saying ignore it entirely, but the defense needs people to rush the passer, and it needs to get younger in the back end.  

 

Offense:

QB - Allen, ????

RB - Cook, ????, ????

WR - Diggs, ????, Shakir, ????, Shorter

TE - Knox, Kincaid, Morris

T - Dawkins, Brown, Van Demark, Doyle

G - McGovern, Torrence, Anderson

C - Bates, ???? (I assume Morse is let go for cap reasons)

 

Defense:

DE - Von, Groot, ????, Jonathan

3T - Oliver, ????

1T - ????, ????

LB - Milano, Bernard, Williams, Spector

CB - Douglas, Benford, Elam, ???? (expecting to move on from White)

NB - Johnson, ???? (expecting to move on from neal)

S - Poyer, ????, Hamlin, ????

Forgot Harty at WR

Just happy our ol actually looks good and have all 5 returning,  depending on Morse but I'd hope they keep him. He's playing good ball

[Matt_In_NH]

The title of this thread is such a loser mentality.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

21 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

https://overthecap.com/calculator

 

Take a look.  We are are loosing a lot of players and going to have to sign vet minimums to fill the roster, maybe starters.  You guys are clueless that dont pay attention.  This roster will be way more different than previous years.  Some of you think we live in this salary heaven that dont exist.  Here is your salary spent for the near future...Con Miller 20m, bacckup TE Knox, 15m.  That's just 2.  We could move on.  That's 35m

Let's put a pin in this Convo. Once the Bills make their off-season moves of restructuring, cuts and maybe even a couple of extensions I predict there will be space. 

 

I also predict that FA WRs are going to be cheaper this year specifically than what most are picturing. There is a ton of excellent WR talent coming out in the draft this year and as of now (yes some will re-sign with their current teams) the FA WR market is deep as well. 

 

You're right, as of right now I'm clueless as to what we will have, what moves will be made and who will cost what. By that token, so are you. That's all stuff that's on Brandon Beane desk. 

[Kirby Jackson]

17 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I absolutely love Rome. Straight baller and seems like a great dude. I also love both of the FSU guys but favor Coleman because I do worry about separation issues with Wilson. 
 

I just hope this team realizes how big of a need this is and doesn’t hesitate to trade up. While there are no sure fire picks, a receiver playing with Allen seems like a pretty safe bet.

Total hypothetical:

 

Let’s pretend MHJ somehow falls to 5. This is highly unlikely but for the sake of this question, we will imagine. Let’s say that the Bills pick is like 18. Would you trade your 1st, 2nd, next year’s 1st and like a 2025 4th for him? I’d do it without blinking but wondering what others think?

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Total hypothetical:

 

Let’s pretend MHJ somehow falls to 5. This is highly unlikely but for the sake of this question, we will imagine. Let’s say that the Bills pick is like 18. Would you trade your 1st, 2nd, next year’s 1st and like a 2025 4th for him? I’d do it without blinking but wondering what others think?

This team has long-term Sammy Watkins syndrome, I suspect, but the Julio Jones trade certainly worked out for Atlanta.

[BobbyC81]

19 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The Bills need to draft a WR.

 

The Bengals are about to lose Tee Higgins, and once again find themselves without Burrow and likely with another Top 10 pick.

 

As of today, the Bills are at #17 and the Bengals #12. I expect the Bills to end up around #15 and Bengals around #10.

 

Neither team will have a chance at Marvin Harrison Jr. He'll be a top 5 pick, hopefully not to New England. I imagine Odunze will be off the board before either of us pick as well. Although Odunze is close to a Higgins clone and Bengals might end up pretty high if they likely lose out.

 

Looking at Draftek's list (just to get a list), who do we like?

 

 

I could see Cincy going back to the LSU well and grabbing Nabers, which would leave Coleman or Egbuka depending on who drafts between us.

 

Or do we go CB then get one of the 2nd round WRs? Anyone there to get excited about?

As long as McD is around it’ll likely be a defensive player, probably DB or DL.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, BobbyC81 said:

As long as McD is around it’ll likely be a defensive player, probably DB or DL.

 

It will likely be that even if he is gone given the glaring holes we'll have on the roster at those positions.

[boyst]

55 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Total hypothetical:

 

Let’s pretend MHJ somehow falls to 5. This is highly unlikely but for the sake of this question, we will imagine. Let’s say that the Bills pick is like 18. Would you trade your 1st, 2nd, next year’s 1st and like a 2025 4th for him? I’d do it without blinking but wondering what others think?

i don't think he'd cost that much. i'd also rather throw in a player that isn't working. Elam or anyone.

[C.Biscuit97]

56 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Total hypothetical:

 

Let’s pretend MHJ somehow falls to 5. This is highly unlikely but for the sake of this question, we will imagine. Let’s say that the Bills pick is like 18. Would you trade your 1st, 2nd, next year’s 1st and like a 2025 4th for him? I’d do it without blinking but wondering what others think?

Man, that is a lot. Also, since it’s such a deep class, I would be willing to trade up but maybe not that high (so like a Rome O type).

 

that said, if we are viewing MHJ as the potential Diggs number 1 guy, that makes it a lot more interesting of a move. 
 

ideally, I want 2 receivers out of this draft. 

[boyst]

17 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I can't believe I'm writing this, but if an athletic, game-changing safety is there, it's something I'd consider. They are really hurting at that position, and the best safeties these days can make a big difference. Ideally, though, I'd prefer to get a safety in round 2 or 3 as long as the player projects to being good. 

 

8 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Rapp?? 

 

i like some of the options for free agents at S next year. a decent, deeper list.

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, boyst said:

i don't think he'd cost that much. i'd also rather throw in a player that isn't working. Elam or anyone.

Haha, what kind of trade value do you think Elam even has at this point? It’s like a bag of footballs. But I agree, I’d trade Elam for Harrison!!!

[boyst]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Haha, what kind of trade value do you think Elam even has at this point? It’s like a bag of footballs. But I agree, I’d trade Elam for Harrison!!!

elam is a 4th or 5th round prospect. especially if we are smart enough to play him in some of the games this year to draw interest.

 

if we lose against KC then i am playing Elam the rest of the year.

[C.Biscuit97]

55 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

This team has long-term Sammy Watkins syndrome, I suspect, but the Julio Jones trade certainly worked out for Atlanta.

It’s true and trading up for a qb (which fails a lot of the time as well) seems like a bad move that high in the draft. But if this is the final piece to a SB team, I’m fine with it. Still think we have some decent holes to fill in as well.

Just now, boyst said:

elam is a 4th or 5th round prospect. especially if we are smart enough to play him in some of the games this year to draw interest.

 

if we lose against KC then i am playing Elam the rest of the year.

Honestly don’t think it’s that high but I hope you’re right. Guy can’t play on a team that needs cb helps and when he does, he struggles, but hopefully there are some dumb teams out there. I think McDermott is as good of a d back coach in the nfl so if he can’t mold you into something, I’d be really worried. 

[boyst]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

It’s true and trading up for a qb (which fails a lot of the time as well) seems like a bad move that high in the draft. But if this is the final piece to a SB team, I’m fine with it. Still think we have some decent holes to fill in as well.

Honestly don’t think it’s that high but I hope you’re right. Guy can’t play on a team that needs cb helps and when he does, he struggles, but hopefully there are some dumb teams out there. I think McDermott is as good of a d back coach in the nfl so if he can’t mold you into something, I’d be really worried. 

i hold on to last year. he played and was not a liability last year and in fact contributed.

 

there is talent there that we saw. it just isn't working to output. and if Eli ***** Apple can play in this league then anyone can.

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, boyst said:

i don't think he'd cost that much. i'd also rather throw in a player that isn't working. Elam or anyone.

 

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Man, that is a lot. Also, since it’s such a deep class, I would be willing to trade up but maybe not that high (so like a Rome O type).

 

that said, if we are viewing MHJ as the potential Diggs number 1 guy, that makes it a lot more interesting of a move. 
 

ideally, I want 2 receivers out of this draft. 

I would think that’s roughly the cost. My thinking is that you’d have at least 5 years on his rookie contract. You have the best WRs in the league as long as Diggs remains as he is. After MHJ’s rookie contract you can move on from Diggs (if not sooner). With as expensive as WRs are, this move would position the Bills well moving forward. 

[boyst]

24 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

I would think that’s roughly the cost. My thinking is that you’d have at least 5 years on his rookie contract. You have the best WRs in the league as long as Diggs remains as he is. After MHJ’s rookie contract you can move on from Diggs (if not sooner). With as expensive as WRs are, this move would position the Bills well moving forward. 

swap firsts, give them a 3rd this year. add the next years first (2025). make a contingency in there to move up to a 2nd in 2025 if certain marks are hit - and i'd love it to be if we finish with 12 or more wins and targets for MHJ.

[Hermes]

2 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The title of this thread is such a loser mentality.  

You know, I actually think it's a Billsy mentality.  

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Total hypothetical:

 

Let’s pretend MHJ somehow falls to 5. This is highly unlikely but for the sake of this question, we will imagine. Let’s say that the Bills pick is like 18. Would you trade your 1st, 2nd, next year’s 1st and like a 2025 4th for him? I’d do it without blinking but wondering what others think?

I wouldn’t do it…not in a draft where there are so many other great receivers.  And as good as MHJ is, history tells us that the highest rated WR in the class rarely turns out to be the best pro.  Too many other great prospects to make a move up of this magnitude.

Edited November 29, 2023 by mannc

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

This team has long-term Sammy Watkins syndrome, I suspect, but the Julio Jones trade certainly worked out for Atlanta.

 

It worked out that they got a decent player who didnt bust, but to what end?

 

They managed to get to a Super Bowl 6 years later under a completely different head coach, and then sank like a stone right after.

 

Plus, if anyone is taking calls in a trade up to get MHJ they will have a ton of calls and the price will be ridiculous.

 

I get it, he's amazing. But the trade up would be bad business imo.

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

I wouldn’t do it…not in a draft where there are so many other great receivers.  And as good as MHJ is, history tells us that the highest rated WR in the class rarely turns out to be the best pro.  Too many other great prospects to make a move up of this magnitude.

 

This is really it. In 2011, after AJ Green and Julio the drop off in that class was significant. There really wasnt another WR from that class worth mentioning.

 

This year's class is much closer to being as deep or even deeper than the 2014 class when we got Watkins, but could have stayed put for Mike Evans.

[Drew21PA]

Personally feel worthy is going to be the best one of the group aside from Harrison 

 

just my feeling - watch the kid play and he just always stands out to me 

 

felt that way about Dotson but he’s mediocre in Washington now so idk 

[msw2112]

18 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

As a Michigan fan, I am skeptical of Roman Wilson's potential as a pro player. 

 

He has some speed and looks like he has good hands. He's on the short side, and I don't know how good of a route runner he is.

 

Definitely a mid round pick. I don't think he's an immediate contributor, but I wouldn't discount him if the Bills drafted him.

 

That's a fair assessment.  What I like about Wilson is that he's improved every year and he has become the team's #1 WR even though the guy ahead of him (Cornelius Johnson) is still on the roster.  He makes most of the big plays for the team (as far as WRs go) and has shown a nose for the end zone.  Hard to say whether it translates to the next level, but you can't coach speed, and he appears to be a team-first guy.  Michigan runs the ball so much that WRs don't get a ton of targets, but there's no evidence of him ever complaining, and he makes the most of his opportunities.  He's worth taking a calculated risk on with a mid-round pick.

 

Back to the Bills - Shakir has come on recently and I'd like to see more of him.  I assume that last year he was not seeing the field because he was not able to process the game at NFL speed.  This season, he seems to have figured it out and is making the most of his opportunities.  I can't recall his last drop, but he certainly has not dropped any more passes than Diggs or Davis have in recent games.

[starrymessenger]

It's early so just starting to look at the WRs. In terms of strategy we might consider a top FA or turn towards the draft. Tee Higgins should be the guy to target if we go the former route. With such a strong draft at the position it certainly makes sense to look there. If we sign a player like Higgins we might still be in position to draft a promising rook in the later rounds. I guess my preference would be to target one of the top guys in the first, maybe looking to move up a few spots if necessary. The reason would be that we need a #2 now but we also need a guy who has a strong chance of developing into a #1 WR in a couple of years. While the class is strong there are probably only 3, maybe 4 guys about whom you can be reasonably confident they can do that. My due diligence hasn't happened yet but just based on highlight reels I think I'd like me some Keon Coleman. All day. Right now I don't see much space between him and MHJr. In fact he looks better to me after the catch.

Only other thing is that in looking at early mocks I see a number of these guys projected to the late second/third round. I sort of doubt it myself. That 6'7", 237 LBs Florida State who is physical, has some wiggle and will likely run in the low 4:40's will be long gone by the third (where I've seen him mocked more than once). And there are other top shelf guys being mocked (too) late IMO.

Edited November 29, 2023 by starrymessenger

[mannc]

51 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

This year's class is much closer to being as deep or even deeper than the 2014 class when we got Watkins, but could have stayed put for Mike Evans.

Or OBJ or Davante Adams.  Actually, I think we traded up from 9, so we couldn’t have gotten Evans (who went 7th) in our original spot.

Edited November 29, 2023 by mannc

[HappyDays]

Dane Brugler just posted his mock draft 1.0 (Athletic subscribers only):

 

https://theathletic.com/5096030/2023/11/29/nfl-mock-draft-2024-caleb-williams-drake-maye-bears-cardinals?source=user-shared-article

 

He has the Bengals at #15 taking Odunze. He has the Bills at #16 taking OT Amarius Mims from Georgia. In that scenario if we really like Odunze we could do a small trade up to jump the Bengals.

 

Other WRs taken before us - #2 Marvin Harrison Jr., #6 Malik Nabers, #12 Keon Coleman. The WRs drafted after us are #23 Brian Thomas Jr. and #28 Emeka Egbuka.

[Warcodered]

 

Now officially 30, feels insane not take a shot at a 1st round WR especially if it's a strength of this draft class.

[mannc]

35 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Dane Brugler just posted his mock draft 1.0 (Athletic subscribers only):

 

https://theathletic.com/5096030/2023/11/29/nfl-mock-draft-2024-caleb-williams-drake-maye-bears-cardinals?source=user-shared-article

 

He has the Bengals at #15 taking Odunze. He has the Bills at #16 taking OT Amarius Mims from Georgia. In that scenario if we really like Odunze we could do a small trade up to jump the Bengals.

 

Other WRs taken before us - #2 Marvin Harrison Jr., #6 Malik Nabers, #12 Keon Coleman. The WRs drafted after us are #23 Brian Thomas Jr. and #28 Emeka Egbuka.

No way that happens.  The Bills love Spencer Brown and Dawkins of course is going nowhere.  We're taking a WR. 

[34-78-83]

20 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Who are they, we don't take offensive players in the 1st or 2nd rounds except 3 times in the last 2 drafts.

Congrats to you for saying this. Lots of posters on autopilot/ mailing it in don't realize this.

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, mannc said:

No way that happens.  The Bills love Spencer Brown and Dawkins of course is going nowhere.  We're taking a WR. 

 

Spencer Brown is entering his final year of his rookie contract and Dawkins will be 30 next season. I think an OT is very much in play in the 1st round. OL is always a need for every team at all times.

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Spencer Brown is entering his final year of his rookie contract and Dawkins will be 30 next season. I think an OT is very much in play in the 1st round. OL is always a need for every team at all times.

this is why this year should have been a focus on a mini retooling so next year we have the bodies in place for all we are about to lose in FA and dropoffs in aging players.

 

retool this year, remold next year would have been the way to go. now it looks like it'llbe full rebuild with a new HC

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

I wouldn’t do it…not in a draft where there are so many other great receivers.  And as good as MHJ is, history tells us that the highest rated WR in the class rarely turns out to be the best pro.  Too many other great prospects to make a move up of this magnitude.

He’s Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson IMO. He is 1,200 and 10 TDs tomorrow. Generally, I agree. Flowers, Johnston, Addison and JSN were all thought of in the same tier. The same goes the year before with Olave, Wilson, etc… MHJ is different than that. He’s a tier above everyone else with a MASSIVE floor and ceiling.  His floor is Tee Higgins or Devonta Smith. His ceiling is one of the all-time greats. It’s certainly an expensive investment but there’s virtually no risk with him (outside of an injury which everyone is at risk for). 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Kirby Jackson

[Warcodered]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Spencer Brown is entering his final year of his rookie contract and Dawkins will be 30 next season. I think an OT is very much in play in the 1st round. OL is always a need for every team at all times.

I bet we do take a tackle in the draft but I'd bet it's either in the 2nd or 3rd round since it's for the RT spot not the LT.

[34-78-83]

I'd give our #1 and #2 to move up to get MHJ since we're playing hypothetical. Would it be enough? If no, what else would we have to throw in?

[mannc]

12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson IMO. He is 1,200 and 10 TDs tomorrow. Generally, I agree. Flowers, Johnston, Addison and JSN were all thought of in the same tier. The same goes the year before with Olave, Wilson, etc… MHJ is different than that. He’s a tier above everyone else with a MASSIVE floor and ceiling.  His floor is Tee Higgins or Devonte Smith. His ceiling is one of the all-time greats. It’s certainly an expensive investment but there’s virtually no risk with him (outside of an injury which everyone is at risk for). 

MHJ is undoubtedly a great prospect, but is he really that much better than the other guys in this class?  It seems to me that there are at least three other prospects this year that would have been WR1 last year, although it's still early in the process... 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Malachi Corley is a fun watch. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Dane Brugler just posted his mock draft 1.0 (Athletic subscribers only):

 

https://theathletic.com/5096030/2023/11/29/nfl-mock-draft-2024-caleb-williams-drake-maye-bears-cardinals?source=user-shared-article

 

He has the Bengals at #15 taking Odunze. He has the Bills at #16 taking OT Amarius Mims from Georgia. In that scenario if we really like Odunze we could do a small trade up to jump the Bengals.

 

Other WRs taken before us - #2 Marvin Harrison Jr., #6 Malik Nabers, #12 Keon Coleman. The WRs drafted after us are #23 Brian Thomas Jr. and #28 Emeka Egbuka.

 

This is EXACTLY what I'm talking about in starting this thread!

 

Losing out on Odunze for Mims would be a huge let down. I watch a lot of UGA, even going to the SEC champ on Saturday. Mims is "ok" but would be a disappointing pick for our highest pick in years.

 

If the draft played out like that, I'd hope Beane trades back a bit and snags Egbuka in the early/mid 20s

Edited November 29, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[Kirby Jackson]

22 minutes ago, mannc said:

MHJ is undoubtedly a great prospect, but is he really that much better than the other guys in this class?  It seems to me that there are at least three other prospects this year that would have been WR1 last year, although it's still early in the process... 

For me, it is unequivocally yes. I believe that he is a top 10 WR now. There are other good receivers in this class for sure. He certainly has the highest floor (if you care about that in round 1). MHJ won’t be Quentin Johnston but Malik Nabors might be. It depends what you’re looking for. If the Bills could get MHJ (extremely unlikely) they’d have the best weapons in the league. You’d elevate your offense to that level without any more cap investment. 

[alluro]

On 11/28/2023 at 12:45 PM, BBFL said:

Odunze wouldn’t be a bad shout. Doubt he goes out of the top 15 though. Likely we draft an OLineman, maybe Tackle, or a DB 

Odunze is my pipe dream for the next draft. I'd also like to see them send a late rounder to Baltimore for Rashod Bateman who seems to have been forgotten in their offense.