Firing Dorsey did not solve Bills' number 1 problem: Sean McDermott (damning Warren Sharp article)

[Logic]

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-ken-dorsey/

 

A tiger cannot change his stripes.

Ultimately, neither can Sean McDermott.

The 2020 Bills came so close to winning it all. Their offense was nearly unstoppable. It didn’t resemble anything Buffalo had seen in decades. And it was the first time they made it to the AFC Title game since 1993.

But instead of running it back with minor tweaks, McDermott said in his post-season press conference that he wanted to “start over” and do so by “running the ball better.”

The direction of the Bills has been a downward spiral ever since that fateful day.

Want to know why that 2020 season seems so different and magical than what the Bills have seen since, particularly in recent years?

Because that was the only year McDermott truly took a step back from the offense and let someone else give it a spin with full impunity.

As I’ll detail below, that was OC Brian Daboll’s ticket to ride anything at the park. Super Bowl or bust. But if it busts, regardless of whether it got *this close* to a Super Bowl, the fun is over. Back to basics.

And since that AFC Championship loss, the blame from the top has gone everywhere:

First, it was Daboll. He left after 2021.

Then it was defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. He left after 2022.

Now it is Ken Dorsey, who was fired at the midpoint of this 2023 season.

Ironically, Dorsey’s firing came after a home loss to the Broncos that was both predictable and ultimately the fault of the head coach....

 

------------------------


That's just the beginning of the article, but I highly suggest reading the whole thing. 

Yikes.

 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-ken-dorsey/

 

A tiger cannot change his stripes.

Ultimately, neither can Sean McDermott.

The 2020 Bills came so close to winning it all. Their offense was nearly unstoppable. It didn’t resemble anything Buffalo had seen in decades. And it was the first time they made it to the AFC Title game since 1993.

But instead of running it back with minor tweaks, McDermott said in his post-season press conference that he wanted to “start over” and do so by “running the ball better.”

The direction of the Bills has been a downward spiral ever since that fateful day.

Want to know why that 2020 season seems so different and magical than what the Bills have seen since, particularly in recent years?

Because that was the only year McDermott truly took a step back from the offense and let someone else give it a spin with full impunity.

As I’ll detail below, that was OC Brian Daboll’s ticket to ride anything at the park. Super Bowl or bust. But if it busts, regardless of whether it got *this close* to a Super Bowl, the fun is over. Back to basics.

And since that AFC Championship loss, the blame from the top has gone everywhere:

First, it was Daboll. He left after 2021.

Then it was defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. He left after 2022.

Now it is Ken Dorsey, who was fired at the midpoint of this 2023 season.

Ironically, Dorsey’s firing came after a home loss to the Broncos that was both predictable and ultimately the fault of the head coach....

 

------------------------


That's just the beginning of the article, but I highly suggest reading the whole thing. 

Yikes.

 

Nobody blamed Daboll in 2021.  That premise alone is completely wrong.

 

He was the hottest coaching candidate in the league.

Edited November 15, 2023 by FireChans

[SWATeam]

Just from reading the synopsis here I don’t think the premise is right.  The league has adjusted to the high flying offensive attacks, taking the explosive plays away with two deep looks.  I don’t think we can just assume “running it back” would be just as successful.

 

if anything we’re not running enough now

[34-78-83]

my goodness with these "opportunity articles"

@SWATeam you said it man, you can't play offense the same in 23 as you could in 20/21. Its an ever evolving league.

 

I'm gonna read it though and not be a hypocrite.

 

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Nobody blamed Daboll in 2021.  That premise alone is completely wrong.

 

He was the hottest coaching candidate in the league.

I suggest you actually read the article.

[zow2]

I like this one quote: "McDermott’s defense has been terrible on opening drives and early in games (#29 defense on opening drive yards allowed, #31 defense in points allowed the first two drives of games)."

 

So let me get this straight, McDermott's defense has been terrible at the beginning of games...and in all 5 losses it's been pretty awful at the end of games, unable to get the crucial stop to either win, or give the offense the ball back for a chance to win.  Man, that's a problem!  I'd say even the Giants game was technically a stop at the end, but the Bills got lucky.

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Just from reading the synopsis here I don’t think the premise is right.  The league has adjusted to the high flying offensive attacks, taking the explosive plays away with two deep looks.  I don’t think we can just assume “running it back” would be just as successful.

 

if anything we’re not running enough now

I suggest reading the entire article. What Sharp eludes to in it is not simply "running it back" from 2020. He goes into greater detail as to what exactly he means.

[boyst]

@HoofHearted argue this article. even here he calls out all of our defense and the blitz on 3rd down.

[blitzboy54]

This article is spot on and I'm glad others see it. Sean McDermott has been choking the offense every time he inserts his philosophy into it. I believe, he believes he is doing the right thing but it's not.

Edited November 15, 2023 by blitzboy54

[boyst]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Nobody blamed Daboll in 2021.  That premise alone is completely wrong.

 

He was the hottest coaching candidate in the league.

read the article to understand it better. it's a solid article from someone on the outside.

this is an impressive statement and entirely true:

Quote

If you approach this exercise sincerely, I think it might be quite illustrative of the issues the Bills are working through right now.

Jump a few years into the past and put yourself into Josh Allen’s shoes while he was a kid out of Wyoming and before he was paid franchise QB money.

You have a breakout year in 2020 that no one thought you were capable of.

Immediately at the conclusion of the season, your head coach comes out and tells the press and your team internally, in an indirect manner, that he wants to take the ball out of your hands more often and place it in the hands of your running backs.

 

[Seventeen]

Excellent article backed up by actual statistics. 

 

Send it to Terry so he can use it as the rationale for firing McD after this season. 

 

 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, boyst said:

read the article to understand it better. it's a solid article from someone on the outside.

this is an impressive statement and entirely true:

 

I did. It's cherry picking and riding the "Fire McD" wave.

 

Criticism has been RAMPANT on the Bills inability to be less "Josh Allen-centric."  That's consistent since 2020. There's only one way to do that, run the ball. We have tried to get better in that regard.

 

Folks wanted Frazier gone after 13 seconds. They thought the Bills defense was too passive. They wanted a more attacking and blitzing style defense.  We did that, we tried to get better in that regard.

 

Half the posts in weeks 1-4 were how fans were SO EXCITED we had a run game that worked. How the defense was much more aggressive. Some key injuries and some regression on offense and now its "Sean McDermott orchestrated the Bills fall" lol.

 

This article could have easily been "Dorsey sucked and was holding this team back despite improved personnel" (because pretty much every stat supports that), but Sharp included a bunch of frustrated quotes after losses from 3 years ago to make it seem far more nefarious.

 

There aren't any quotes about McD's offensive frustration from 2022 or 2023?  Why? Has McD not said a million things about the offensive woes' between 2022 and now?

 

Of course he has.

 

Hack job.

 

0/10. 

 

Would not submit my email to read this garbage again.

[Peter]

McCoach blathers on about "accountability" but that apparently is a hollow word when he looks in the mirror.

 

McCoach has thrown others under the bus to deflect from his own issues. I hope Terry makes McCoach accountable.

 

After all, we can say that firing McCoach was part of the "process."

 

Karma is a B--ch.

[NewEra]

25 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Just from reading the synopsis here I don’t think the premise is right.  The league has adjusted to the high flying offensive attacks, taking the explosive plays away with two deep looks.  I don’t think we can just assume “running it back” would be just as successful.

 

if anything we’re not running enough now

This

[strive_for_five_guy]

Scathing, or at the least, an interesting take.  Probably fired Dorsey because he thought we should have run the ball even more the other night, and blaming the loss on that.  Will be interesting to see where this offense goes the rest of the season and what McD has to say about it.

[Don Otreply]

30 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Just from reading the synopsis here I don’t think the premise is right.  The league has adjusted to the high flying offensive attacks, taking the explosive plays away with two deep looks.  I don’t think we can just assume “running it back” would be just as successful.

 

if anything we’re not running enough now

It can be both to some degree,  McDermott is not likely getting the buy in from the players that he hoped with his change of scheme, and that could be because it isn’t working, mostly because of the lack of investment in really good O-line personnel, it’s been five years and that unit has been a patchwork assembly from the start, not to mention the other issue on offense. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

[boyst]

19 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I did. It's cherry picking and riding the "Fire McD" wave.

 

Criticism has been RAMPANT on the Bills inability to be less "Josh Allen-centric."  That's consistent since 2020. There's only one way to do that, run the ball. We have tried to get better in that regard.

 

Folks wanted Frazier gone after 13 seconds. They thought the Bills defense was too passive. They wanted a more attacking and blitzing style defense.  We did that, we tried to get better in that regard.

 

Half the posts in weeks 1-4 were how fans were SO EXCITED we had a run game that worked. How the defense was much more aggressive. Some key injuries and some regression on offense and now its "Sean McDermott orchestrated the Bills fall" lol.

 

This article could have easily been "Dorsey sucked and was holding this team back despite improved personnel" (because pretty much every stat supports that), but Sharp included a bunch of frustrated quotes after losses from 3 years ago to make it seem far more nefarious.

 

There aren't any quotes about McD's offensive frustration from 2022 or 2023?  Why? Has McD not said a million things about the offensive woes' between 2022 and now?

 

Of course he has.

 

Hack job.

 

0/10. 

 

Would not submit my email to read this garbage again.

you're lumping everyone in on this because of a herd mentality lynch mob. i had been against frazier not using more blitzes but did not hate him. just that he didn't adapt.

 

you're acting as if all of the comments on him have been sudden. i know i can only speak for myself. since 13 seconds i have been 100% against him. since the Peterman 5 pick game in San Diego i have thought he was a chump. Since Houston's playoff game i thought he was a terrible game manager and inept at proper decision making.

 

he's been the root of all these problems. sharp is drawing the same comparison and likely more recently evolved to this situation.

[BillsFan130]

That was a really good article.

 

Thanks for sharing that 

[TheFunPolice]

EVERY COACH under the ago of 60 will be fired from his current NFL job. 

 

Hell, even Belichick could be fired after this year. He actually won things. Lots of them. 

 

McDermott has led the Bills to a few playoff berths. He has won nothing of consequence. 

 

So it's a matter of time, as always. Question is can McDermott lead the Bills to a Super Bowl?

 

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by TheFunPolice

[FireChans]

Just now, boyst said:

you're lumping everyone in on this because of a herd mentality lynch mob. i had been against frazier not using more blitzes but did not hate him. just that he didn't adapt.

 

you're acting as if all of the comments on him have been sudden. i know i can only speak for myself. since 13 seconds i have been 100% against him. since the Peterman 5 pick game in San Diego i have thought he was a chump. Since Houston's playoff game i thought he was a terrible game manager and inept at proper decision making.

 

he's been the root of all these problems. sharp is drawing the same comparison and likely more recently evolved to this situation.

You can't say that and ALSO SAY that Frazier was a nefarious scapegoat to the McD agenda.

Sharp is purposely avoiding the current year and the comments surrounding Dorsey his entire tenure as an OC, and linking quotes from 3 years ago instead.  Like Sean hasn't been basically telling Dorsey to figure it out all season? 

 

His premise is that this is the offense McD wants.  Well if Dorsey was doing a great job doing what McD wanted, WHY DID HE FIRE HIM!

 

I don't care if you hate McD and think he sucks. That's fine. I don't even disagree that we should fire him.  But this article is still garbage.

[warrior9]

The funny thing about all of this is Josh is having the lowest percentage of turnover worthy throws in his career with the highest completion percentage.

 

This means that balls are being dropped, interceptions happening aren't on Josh, etc, etc.

[LABILLBACKER]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I did. It's cherry picking and riding the "Fire McD" wave.

 

Criticism has been RAMPANT on the Bills inability to be less "Josh Allen-centric."  That's consistent since 2020. There's only one way to do that, run the ball. We have tried to get better in that regard.

 

Folks wanted Frazier gone after 13 seconds. They thought the Bills defense was too passive. They wanted a more attacking and blitzing style defense.  We did that, we tried to get better in that regard.

 

Half the posts in weeks 1-4 were how fans were SO EXCITED we had a run game that worked. How the defense was much more aggressive. Some key injuries and some regression on offense and now its "Sean McDermott orchestrated the Bills fall" lol.

 

This article could have easily been "Dorsey sucked and was holding this team back despite improved personnel" (because pretty much every stat supports that), but Sharp included a bunch of frustrated quotes after losses from 3 years ago to make it seem far more nefarious.

 

There aren't any quotes about McD's offensive frustration from 2022 or 2023?  Why? Has McD not said a million things about the offensive woes' between 2022 and now?

 

Of course he has.

 

Hack job.

 

0/10. 

 

Would not submit my email to read this garbage again.

Ok Chans then how is McD supposed to run the ball if he's refused to draft olineman for 6 years.  Seriously?

[FireChans]

Just now, LABILLBACKER said:

Ok Chans then how is McD supposed to run the ball if he's refused to draft olineman for 6 years.  Seriously?

They drafted Cody Ford in the second, Dion Dawkins in the second, Torrence in the second, Spencer Brown in the third, signed Mitch Morse to the top 7 center contract in the NFL, Nick Broeker in the 7th, Luke Tenuta in the 6th, Tommy Doyle in the 5th, Jack Anderson in the 7th, Wyatt Teller in the 5th, signed Daryl Williams to a 3 years $24M deal, signed Quinton Spain, signed John Feliciano, signed Roger Saffold.

 

You could argue that's "refusing to draft olinemen," and thus a reflection on not wanting to run the ball, but you'd be wrong.

[boyst]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You can't say that and ALSO SAY that Frazier was a nefarious scapegoat to the McD agenda.

Sharp is purposely avoiding the current year and the comments surrounding Dorsey his entire tenure as an OC, and linking quotes from 3 years ago instead.  Like Sean hasn't been basically telling Dorsey to figure it out all season? 

 

His premise is that this is the offense McD wants.  Well if Dorsey was doing a great job doing what McD wanted, WHY DID HE FIRE HIM!

 

I don't care if you hate McD and think he sucks. That's fine. I don't even disagree that we should fire him.  But this article is still garbage.

we don't know the full story about frazier and i haven't heard from a reliable source one way to believe or not but i generally get the feel that there was mutual frustration for both of them against each other.

 

and mcdermott fired him because of the losses. if 11 men were on the field, dorsey would still be here.

[Logic]

I'm just glad I could give everyone a new reason to get angry with each other.

[FireChans]

Just now, boyst said:

we don't know the full story about frazier and i haven't heard from a reliable source one way to believe or not but i generally get the feel that there was mutual frustration for both of them against each other.

 

and mcdermott fired him because of the losses. if 11 men were on the field, dorsey would still be here.

If the Bills won the Superbowl in 2021, we wouldn't be talking about how McD ruined the Bills lol.

 

We can both play that game.

[mjt328]

Not sure if I agree with this article.

 

The Bills struggled on offense in the playoffs, in what he calls the "magical" 2020 season.  

Most fans feel the team actually had it's best chance in 2021, due to the team clicking on offense in playoffs.  But then 13 seconds happened.

And even last year, the Bills were still leaning very heavily towards the pass and still allowing Josh Allen to run the ball a ton.

 

And here in 2023, all the metrics are showing the Bills offense works better when they are running the ball.  James Cook was pretty much the only thing working on Monday night.

 

It's very probably that Sean McDermott is trying to limit Allen's running, and I agree that it's a problem.  But part of the problem with the Bills is being too one-dimensional and predictable.  Teams have caught-up to the heavy passing offenses, and it's vital to keep teams off balance.  If McDermott was preaching that, he's not wrong.

[boyst]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If the Bills won the Superbowl in 2021, we wouldn't be talking about how McD ruined the Bills lol.

 

We can both play that game.

perhaps but that team was full of talent and he had little to do with them.

[FLFan]

I have not been on the McDermott is the problem train like many posters here have been, and in fact I have always argued back at this, but that train is beginning to leave the station in my mind.  This article by Sharp is outstanding, well reasoned and backed up with facts.  It is the best written explanation of what may be the crux of the problem I have read certainly.  Definitely food for thought as the mistakes and failures by players and coaches pile up week after week.   
 

That said, I definitely think Dorsey was part of the problem.  Whether it is partly or mostly due to McDermott’s direction is a valid question, as is the role of McDermott in Josh’s erratic performance.  I know if I do not see some evidence that this team has not quit on the season and by extension the HC by the end of the year (hopefully very soon) the train will be all the way out of the station for me.  

11 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm just glad I could give everyone a new reason to get angry with each other.

Thanks for posting, really.  I had already read it and  would have posted if you had not already done so.  

[34-78-83]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They drafted Cody Ford in the second, Dion Dawkins in the second, Torrence in the second, Spencer Brown in the third, signed Mitch Morse to the top 7 center contract in the NFL, Nick Broeker in the 7th, Luke Tenuta in the 6th, Tommy Doyle in the 5th, Jack Anderson in the 7th, Wyatt Teller in the 5th, signed Daryl Williams to a 3 years $24M deal, signed Quinton Spain, signed John Feliciano, signed Roger Saffold.

 

You could argue that's "refusing to draft olinemen," and thus a reflection on not wanting to run the ball, but you'd be wrong.

They also have a pretty decent "top half" kinda O-line this year, that is going largely unnoticed through the tornado around it.

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

@HoofHearted argue this article. even here he calls out all of our defense and the blitz on 3rd down.

Sure. That dudes a clown. End of discussion.

[FireChans]

26 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

The funny thing about all of this is Josh is having the lowest percentage of turnover worthy throws in his career with the highest completion percentage.

 

This means that balls are being dropped, interceptions happening aren't on Josh, etc, etc.

Aka all good reasons to fire the guy whose job it is to get the offense to execute and play well.

 

Jk, it must be another nefarious scapegoating! 

[Logic]

1 minute ago, HoofHearted said:

Sure. That dudes a clown. End of discussion.

Cheap response.

There are lots of "clowns" in football analysis and on Twitter, specifically.

Warren sharp is a reasonably bright guy, and his piece at least provided lots of numbers and reasoning for his conclusion.

Totally reasonable to disagree with him -- there were some sections of the article that I had issues with, too -- but if you disagree with him SO strongly that you're willing to dismiss his article out of hand and call him a "clown", you'd think it shouldn't be too difficult to list at least a few of the reasons why you disagree so strongly. 

 

[Cubanmist 1]

I’m not on the “Fire Sean” train as the real reasons are being recklessly neglected. The glaring issues on why the offense has been out of whack is obvious to me. Here are my observations.

1) Daboll knew how to unlock Allen, Dorsey didn’t.

2) Dorsey is not Daboll nor was he creative

3) Beane, needed to give Allen a #2 WR. The year that the Bills almost won it all they had a very talented WR in Sanders opposite of Diggs and next to Davis. He could have easily been a #2. A body like that was useful, but was never replaced after Sanders retired.

4)  Last but not least, Josh Allen just has not been himself. He needs to learn to stop trying to throw those tight throws, if they aren’t necessary. Take Tom Brady’s advice and go to the alternative target….even if it yields you 3-5 yards.

Sean does have a little blame in this, but not entirely. My only issue is that he takes too long to fire staff members when needed. Still waiting for him to fire Smiley.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Cubanmist 1

[34-78-83]

8 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Sure. That dudes a clown. End of discussion.

you sure though man? I mean don't gambling advice and stat web guys always know more that actual film analysts and scouts? (sorry this is more of a response to an argument that's following you around than to this post)

Edited November 15, 2023 by 34-78-83

[Rico]

Tough to admit  but I’ve seen enough.

 

Sorry McD, next…

[HoofHearted]

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

Cheap response.

There are lots of "clowns" in football analysis and on Twitter, specifically.

Warren sharp is a reasonably bright guy, and his piece at least provided lots of numbers and reasoning for his conclusion.

Totally reasonable to disagree with him -- there were some sections of the article that I had issues with, too -- but if you disagree with him SO strongly that you're willing to dismiss his article out of hand and call him a "clown", you'd think it shouldn't be too difficult to list at least a few of the reasons why you disagree so strongly. 

 

I didn’t read the article. I’m sure the analytics stuff is fine. He’s just a hack. Sold himself as this big time NFL Consultant and it’s all false. He doesn’t know a dang thing about football. Just numbers.

9 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

you sure though man? I mean don't gambling advice and stat web guys always know more that actual film analysts and scouts? (sorry this is more of a response to an argument that's following you around than to this post)

I need to just stop responding 🤣

[LABILLBACKER]

34 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They drafted Cody Ford in the second, Dion Dawkins in the second, Torrence in the second, Spencer Brown in the third, signed Mitch Morse to the top 7 center contract in the NFL, Nick Broeker in the 7th, Luke Tenuta in the 6th, Tommy Doyle in the 5th, Jack Anderson in the 7th, Wyatt Teller in the 5th, signed Daryl Williams to a 3 years $24M deal, signed Quinton Spain, signed John Feliciano, signed Roger Saffold.

 

You could argue that's "refusing to draft olinemen," and thus a reflection on not wanting to run the ball, but you'd be wrong.

Yes and everybody with the exception of Dawkins & Torrence are terrible.  Morse is no where near the center he was in KC.  You've basically just listed a bunch of garbage olineman that validate our poor OL ranking since 2018.  Come on Chan....it's about quality,  not quanity.

[juno999]

20 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Not sure if I agree with this article.

 

The Bills struggled on offense in the playoffs, in what he calls the "magical" 2020 season.  

Most fans feel the team actually had it's best chance in 2021, due to the team clicking on offense in playoffs.  But then 13 seconds happened.

And even last year, the Bills were still leaning very heavily towards the pass and still allowing Josh Allen to run the ball a ton.

 

And here in 2023, all the metrics are showing the Bills offense works better when they are running the ball.  James Cook was pretty much the only thing working on Monday night.

 

It's very probably that Sean McDermott is trying to limit Allen's running, and I agree that it's a problem.  But part of the problem with the Bills is being too one-dimensional and predictable.  Teams have caught-up to the heavy passing offenses, and it's vital to keep teams off balance.  If McDermott was preaching that, he's not wrong.

The Bills in general have not run the ball effectively in quite some time.  They don't want Allen to run the ball.  I get that concern but they didn't replace that aspect of the offense at all.  So they signed a 33 yr old back and Harris who has an injury history and is on IR now.  They removed a large part of Allen's game and he's struggling to adjust to it.

[JerseyBills]

Pressure bust pipes but also makes diamonds. 

That pressure is at an all time high for McD, job likely on the line, lets see how the man reacts.

Edited November 15, 2023 by JerseyBills