some perspective on a down season

[dave mcbride]

In looking at the trajectories of other reliably good teams with franchise quarterbacks over long stretches of time (and excluding the Brady-led Patriots, who are a complete outlier), you can see that there are 1-to-2 year troughs for all of them.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

Over 17 seasons with Roethlisberger, the Steelers had four 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. They missed the playoffs all six times but made it the other 11 times. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/

Over 15 seasons with Brees, the Saints had five 7-9 seasons and an 8-8 season; they made the playoffs 9 out of 15 times.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/

Over 15 seasons with Rogers, GB had a 7-9 season, a 6-9-1 season, an 8-9 season, and a 6-10 season (the last one to be fair was Rogers' first as a starter). They made the playoffs 11 out of 15 seasons.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/

In ten seasons with Russell Wilson, the Seahawks made the playoffs 8 times; they had a 9-7 season in which they didn't make it and a 7-10 season too (Wilson's final one). 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/

In 11 seasons with Flacco (not the greatest QB, I know, but the team was always pretty deep in talent and had an excellent coach in Harbaugh), the Ravens made the playoffs 7 times; the times they didn't their records were 8-8, 8-8, 9-7, and 5-11.

 

The Eagles under Andy Reid (with mostly McNabb but Vick too) missed the playoffs in 4 out of 14 seasons.

 

The Colts with Manning made the playoffs 11 out of 12 seasons from 1999-2010; they missed it in 2001 with a very down 6-10 season (they year that Mora issued his "playoffs?!?" comment). They made it back in 2002 as a WC but lost 41-0 in the first round to the Jets.

 

Point is, over long stretches, there are generally always "trough years" for franchise-QB teams who win a lot more than they lose. In an actuarial sense, it's to be expected. Not counting Allen's rookie season, the Bills have made it to the playoffs four years in a row. This year might well be one of those expected trough years, though. The stars simply haven't been aligned: they have an extremely difficult schedule, had the NFL assign them a "home" game that was really a road game, and suffered a bunch of injuries to elite players on their defense that probably cost them the game against NE. If there's one loss I can point to that may end up crippling the Bills, it's the divisional loss to a terrible Pats team where an undermanned defense was completely overwhelmed, allowing one of the worst QBs in the league to put up elite numbers. That's the loss that sticks with me. I never expected them to beat Cincy, so I can live with that loss.

Edited November 6, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Punch]

Sobering, it's an excellent analysis. I think the measuring stick for a lot of us as Bills fans is Tom Brady and even Patrick Mahomes. Sustained excellence over an expanded timeline isn't typical or realistic, especially in this era of the NFL. 

[oldmanfan]

Good perspective.  This isn’t our year.  Need to retool in areas especially on D, probably new OC, Josh needs to get his brain to consistently match his amazing physical gifts.  But we’ll get there.

[strive_for_five_guy]

If we can’t beat the likes of the Eagles or Chiefs in a few weeks, well then we’re just pretenders anyway.  But it ain’t over yet. 

[mannc]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

In looking at the trajectories of other reliably good teams with franchise quarterbacks over long stretches of time (and excluding the Brady-led Patriots, who are a complete outlier), you can see that there are 1-to-2 year troughs for all of them.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

Over 17 seasons with Roethlisberger, the Steelers had four 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. They missed the playoffs all six times but made it the other 11 times. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/

Over 15 seasons with Brees, the Saints had five 7-9 seasons and an 8-8 season; they made the playoffs 9 out of 15 times.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/

Over 15 seasons with Rogers, GB had a 7-9 season, a 6-9-1 season, an 8-9 season, and a 6-10 season (the last one to be fair was Rogers' first as a starter). They made the playoffs 11 out of 15 seasons.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/

In ten seasons with Russell Wilson, the Seahawks made the playoffs 8 times; they had a 9-7 season in which they didn't make it and a 7-10 season too (Wilson's final one). 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/

In 11 seasons with Flacco (not the greatest QB, I know, but the team was always pretty deep in talent and had an excellent coach in Harbaugh), the Ravens made the playoffs 7 times; the times they didn't their records were 8-8, 8-8, 9-7, and 5-11.

 

The Eagles under Andy Reid (with mostly McNabb but Vick too) missed the playoffs in 4 out of 14 seasons.

 

Point is, over long stretches, there are generally always "trough years" for franchise-QB teams who win a lot more than they lose. In an actuarial sense, it's to be expected. Not counting Allen's rookie season, the Bills have made it to the playoffs four years in a row. This year might well be one of those expected trough years, though. The stars simply haven't been aligned: they have an extremely difficult schedule, had the NFL assign them a "home" game that was really a road game, and suffered a bunch of injuries to elite players on their defense that probably cost them the game against NE. If there's one loss I can point to that may end up crippling the Bills, it's the divisional loss to a terrible Pats team where an undermanned defense was completely overwhelmed, allowing one of the worst QBs in the league to put up elite numbers. That's the loss that sticks with me. I never expected them to beat Cincy, so I can live with that loss.

A little closer to home, the Bills under Jim Kelly never had a "trough year" from 1988 to 1996...

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

A little closer to home, the Bills under Jim Kelly never had a "trough year" from 1988 to 1996...

I kept the pre-free agency era teams out of this because it was far easier to keep elite teams together and there was a lot less parity. The Cowboys made it 17 out of 18 years between 1966 and 1983, and the one year the didn't make it they were 8-8 and led the league in yardage while finishing 4th in defense. The 1980s-mid 1990s 49ers were the same - missing it in 1991 with a 10-6 season in which they were 3rd in offense and 6th in D. As for that Bills team, it's true, but their late-season collapse in 1987 when they were one of the most talented teams in the league was pretty bad. And while they made the playoffs in 1989, there was a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth about their performance that year (9-7 and the year of the bickering Bills).

Edited November 6, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Casey D]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

A little closer to home, the Bills under Jim Kelly never had a "trough year" from 1988 to 1996...

1994?

Edited November 6, 2023 by Casey D

[Chandler#81]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

A little closer to home, the Bills under Jim Kelly never had a "trough year" from 1988 to 1996...

That team saw 5 players and their HC enter the Pro Football Hall of Fame for their performances during that time frame. Aside from Von - whose merits come from other teams, only Allen & Diggs are potential candidates. There really is a difference. 🤨

[HappyDays]

The difference is that other than the Eagles under Andy Reid, all of those QBs got their Super Bowl win first. Our best window was 2020-2022 and this regime failed to get us over the hump. That was what ultimately got Andy Reid fired too.

[MikePJ76]

Honestly there are no great teams in the league at this point right now.  The eagles with the best record have what looks to be a bad secondary which can be picked on and will be as the season goes on.

 

the chiefs defense looks excellent, baltimore looks good for now and the bengals and jags look like solid teams in all 3 phases.

 

Nobody looks unbeatable as we sit here today.  There is a long way to go

[dorquemada]

Just now, Process said:

If you told me right now that if the Bills miss the playoffs they would bring in a new coaching staff in the offseason, I would be fine with whatever happens the rest of the way and would be looking forward to the future. Down seasons happen. 

I have very little faith in sabres/bills ownership. That's my biggest fear/concern.

Over anything I'm currently seeing on the field. Missing the playoffs and running it back with the same staff.

 

Regardless, good post.

 

Here's what will actually happen.  The Bills will blow 5 of the next 6, then look great the last two.  We'll miss the playoffs (by at least 2 games!) but because we win a couple at the end, management will keep McD and Beane in place.  We'll draft 5 or 6 CBs and a high motor undersized DT, then get a gave davis type receiver in FA. Rather than cutting our losses, we'll keep our AARP defensive backfield intact, even if we don't get more than half a season out of any of them. Lather, rinse, repeat, so goeth the glory era that never was

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

The difference is that other than the Eagles under Andy Reid, all of those QBs got their Super Bowl win first. Our best window was 2020-2022 and this regime failed to get us over the hump. That was what ultimately got Andy Reid fired too.

I dunno. Past ain't necessarily prologue and just because some number gets assigned to a window before it closes (five years for a head coach/QB), in the end it's just a number. Rules like that -- which aren't even rules but rather correlations -- are made to be broken. I'm not saying it's going to happen, of course; I just don't put any stock in it.

[mannc]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I kept the pre-free agency era teams out of this because it was far easier to keep elite teams together and there was a lot less parity. As for that Bills team, it's true, but their late-season collapse in 1987 when they were one of the most talented teams in the league was pretty bad. And while they made the playoffs in 1989, there was a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth about their performance that year (9-7 and the year of the bickering Bills).

That's a fair point...of the teams you mention, how many of those "bad" years happened after reaching/winning the Super Bowl?  Trough years are easier to absorb if your team has already reached the promised land at least once...this Bills team, on the other hand, has never fulfilled its promise...    

Edited November 6, 2023 by mannc

[jkeerie]

So much depends on luck.  We have been snake bit in the injury department for the past two years...with this year being more critical injuries to more key players.

I'm not on the fire McD band wagon.  It's incredible what this defense is doing with such key injuries.  Perhaps, being the DC and HC is leading to one side suffering.  

I was glad they let Frasier go.  For anyone with eyes...who aren't blurred from all the yelling at the TV...the D is playing better.  I can't say the same for the offense.  What works one week isn't done the following week.  Why?  Who knows?  Things even change drive to drive!  To me, that's on Dorsey.

 

For those posters who are saying McD is trying to micromanage Dorsey...we can't really say that with certainty.  Yes...he wants a balanced attack in general with running as well as passing.   However, having a generalized philosophy for your team is a far cry from dictating to your OC.  We had these same inconsistencies under Daboll...who hasn't exactly shown his capabilities beyond Josh Allen either.  

 

For those posters saying that McD has lost the locker room...you are projecting your own feelings.  There is no evidence that there is mutiny among the troops.  

 

Changes need to be made, but not wholesale.  Not yet. Manage the injuries on defense.  Scrap the long developing plays on offense and go with the up tempo short to mid passes with some runs sprinkled in...including Josh.  Bench some players that need to be benched.

 

 

10 minutes ago, mannc said:

A little closer to home, the Bills under Jim Kelly never had a "trough year" from 1988 to 1996...

The AFC was not very good in those years.  The talent was mostly in the NFC.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

25 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

In looking at the trajectories of other reliably good teams with franchise quarterbacks over long stretches of time (and excluding the Brady-led Patriots, who are a complete outlier), you can see that there are 1-to-2 year troughs for all of them.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

Over 17 seasons with Roethlisberger, the Steelers had four 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. They missed the playoffs all six times but made it the other 11 times. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/

Over 15 seasons with Brees, the Saints had five 7-9 seasons and an 8-8 season; they made the playoffs 9 out of 15 times.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/

Over 15 seasons with Rogers, GB had a 7-9 season, a 6-9-1 season, an 8-9 season, and a 6-10 season (the last one to be fair was Rogers' first as a starter). They made the playoffs 11 out of 15 seasons.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/

In ten seasons with Russell Wilson, the Seahawks made the playoffs 8 times; they had a 9-7 season in which they didn't make it and a 7-10 season too (Wilson's final one). 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/

In 11 seasons with Flacco (not the greatest QB, I know, but the team was always pretty deep in talent and had an excellent coach in Harbaugh), the Ravens made the playoffs 7 times; the times they didn't their records were 8-8, 8-8, 9-7, and 5-11.

 

The Eagles under Andy Reid (with mostly McNabb but Vick too) missed the playoffs in 4 out of 14 seasons.

 

The Colts with Manning made the playoffs 11 out of 12 seasons from 1999-2010; they missed it in 2001 with a very down 6-10 season (they year that Mora issued his "playoffs?!?" comment). They made it back in 2002 as a WC but lost 41-0 in the first round to the Jets.

 

Point is, over long stretches, there are generally always "trough years" for franchise-QB teams who win a lot more than they lose. In an actuarial sense, it's to be expected. Not counting Allen's rookie season, the Bills have made it to the playoffs four years in a row. This year might well be one of those expected trough years, though. The stars simply haven't been aligned: they have an extremely difficult schedule, had the NFL assign them a "home" game that was really a road game, and suffered a bunch of injuries to elite players on their defense that probably cost them the game against NE. If there's one loss I can point to that may end up crippling the Bills, it's the divisional loss to a terrible Pats team where an undermanned defense was completely overwhelmed, allowing one of the worst QBs in the league to put up elite numbers. That's the loss that sticks with me. I never expected them to beat Cincy, so I can live with that loss.

Odd that the Chiefs haven't had a down season in the time that mahomes has been there

 

 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I dunno. Past ain't necessarily prologue and just because some number gets assigned to a window before it closes (five years for a head coach/QB), in the end it's just a number. Rules like that -- which aren't even rules but rather correlations -- are made to be broken. I'm not saying it's going to happen, of course; I just don't put any stock in it.

 

There is that stat I've seen repeated that no QB/head coach combo has gone on to win a Super Bowl together if they didn't do it within the first 5 years (or something like that). I'm not saying this regime definitely CAN'T be the first to break that trend. But I haven't seen any reason to believe they will, and I'd rather try something else instead of gambling the back half of Josh Allen's career on a trend that's never been broken.

 

As it is we had an elite team in 2020 and 2021 that wasn't killed by injuries. And in those years they really didn't even get close to a Super Bowl win. So why would I want to wait for this regime to build another elite team just to possibly falter again?

[corta765]

Counter point.

 

The NFL prioritizes the QB position in a way that it is have or have not. The Bills finally have a guy who you can 100% win a SB with and at a time which he is in his prime having another good year they are spinning their tires. They pissed away the prior three years and didn't break through. Time is not limitless and once Josh is gone your back to have not.

 

Yes the stars haven't aligned, but historically if a QB hasn't won by now post rookie contract the odds are not great the later it gets. Drew Brees and Matt Stafford are maybe the two who stick out that won their first title way into their career in todays cap world. McD if he does not make a SB this year will have the longest tenure of any coach to be the guy without breaking through. 

 

This is the prime and Josh has probably 6-7 good-great years left before you start doing the aging QB how do you make it work thing. It is why people are so antsy and the anger is building. The clock is ticking and nothing is there to show for it.

[2003Contenders]

Excellent post.

 

And I would bet that in most of the down-year situations that these teams had, there was an underlying reason why the team struggled. Injuries, new/rookie player(s) in key positions, etc.

 

If you told me after the Jags game that the season was over due to all the injuries on defense -- and that the team was destined to lose a lot of 38-35 type games -- I would not have been happy but would have understood. The part that is so discouraging is that it is the offense, which has been mostly healthy, that has not been living up to its end of the bargain. Even against bad teams like the Giants and Pats.

[SCBills]

12 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Odd that the Chiefs haven't had a down season in the time that mahomes has been there

 

 

 

I don't necessarily want to hear the injury excuses.. but the Chiefs make us look like we're made of glass in terms of major injuries. 

 

The one time they dealt with them in the Mahomes era was in the Super Bowl.. where he got smoked by the Bucs Defense.

[Casey D]

8 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Excellent post.

 

And I would bet that in most of the down-year situations that these teams had, there was an underlying reason why the team struggled. Injuries, new/rookie player(s) in key positions, etc.

 

If you told me after the Jags game that the season was over due to all the injuries on defense -- and that the team was destined to lose a lot of 38-35 type games -- I would not have been happy but would have understood. The part that is so discouraging is that it is the offense, which has been mostly healthy, that has not been living up to its end of the bargain. Even against bad teams like the Giants and Pats.

Yeah, it is mystifying how the Bills rank 5th in both points per game and yards per game.  It feels much worse.  I guess a few good games pulls up the averages.

[NoSaint]

32 minutes ago, Punch said:

Sobering, it's an excellent analysis. I think the measuring stick for a lot of us as Bills fans is Tom Brady and even Patrick Mahomes. Sustained excellence over an expanded timeline isn't typical or realistic, especially in this era of the NFL. 

know what kept many of those units together in the bad years? Rings.

 

to make it through our first peak, often the highest peak, without even an appearance and only the one big loss in the AFCCG as the high water mark would be a tremendous let down.

 

It would warrant serious discussion about coaching jobs.

[Coach Tuesday]

I honestly believe that Doug freakin’ Peterson would win a Super Bowl with Josh.

 

(wasn’t sure where else to put that thought)

[jkeerie]

24 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Odd that the Chiefs haven't had a down season in the time that mahomes has been there

 

 

That is true, although the level of competition within their division has been woeful.  It's like the AFC East when the Patriots dominated over it with Brady.  We dominated prior to this year.  The competition this year is a lot more fierce.

[Success]

The OP is right, and I appreciate this.

 

My issue is that I saw this 2023 team as the best that Beane has put together.  He filled most of the holes, and we looked so strong for a stretch after the Jets debacle.

 

Obviously, the injuries hurt.  But I also overrated how good we were/are. This just doesn't look like our year.

 

33 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Odd that the Chiefs haven't had a down season in the time that mahomes has been there

 

 

 

The Chiefs have the best coach in the league right now (imo) - and they were also built better out of the gate.

 

I believe they will have some down years, though.  Even this year could have been if their division was tougher.  Kelce really keeps that offense going right now.

 

[jkeerie]

1 minute ago, Success said:

The OP is right, and I appreciate this.

 

My issue is that I saw this 2023 team as the best that Beane has put together.  He filled most of the holes, and we looked so strong for a stretch after the Jets debacle.

 

Obviously, the injuries hurt.  But I also overrated how good we were/are. This just doesn't look like our year.

 

It's the inconsitencies on offense and special teams that drive me nuts the most!

[Taro Nimbus]

Bills fans have become spoiled to their recent success.   It’s now every year we expect them to exceed what they did last year, when in fact teams do struggle from time to time.  Every team goes through slumps.   The Bills have a good core of players and coaches.    Just gotta weather the storm.  A far cry from what the bills were during the drought years. 

[dpberr]

I think coaching continuity is way overrated in the era of free agency and tanking for high draft picks.

 

If you're the Steelers, and the Super Bowl is the goal, why go year after year with Mike Tomlin, churning out painful seasons of 10 wins year after year?  

 

If you're the Cowboys, what good comes from keeping Mike McCarthy employed, where you'll feast on the mediocrity and lose against all the good teams?  

 

Why does Tampa Bay find money for more text book definition of mediocrity Todd Bowles?

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

In looking at the trajectories of other reliably good teams with franchise quarterbacks over long stretches of time (and excluding the Brady-led Patriots, who are a complete outlier), you can see that there are 1-to-2 year troughs for all of them.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

Over 17 seasons with Roethlisberger, the Steelers had four 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. They missed the playoffs all six times but made it the other 11 times. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/

Over 15 seasons with Brees, the Saints had five 7-9 seasons and an 8-8 season; they made the playoffs 9 out of 15 times.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/

Over 15 seasons with Rogers, GB had a 7-9 season, a 6-9-1 season, an 8-9 season, and a 6-10 season (the last one to be fair was Rogers' first as a starter). They made the playoffs 11 out of 15 seasons.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/

In ten seasons with Russell Wilson, the Seahawks made the playoffs 8 times; they had a 9-7 season in which they didn't make it and a 7-10 season too (Wilson's final one). 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/

In 11 seasons with Flacco (not the greatest QB, I know, but the team was always pretty deep in talent and had an excellent coach in Harbaugh), the Ravens made the playoffs 7 times; the times they didn't their records were 8-8, 8-8, 9-7, and 5-11.

 

The Eagles under Andy Reid (with mostly McNabb but Vick too) missed the playoffs in 4 out of 14 seasons.

 

The Colts with Manning made the playoffs 11 out of 12 seasons from 1999-2010; they missed it in 2001 with a very down 6-10 season (they year that Mora issued his "playoffs?!?" comment). They made it back in 2002 as a WC but lost 41-0 in the first round to the Jets.

 

Point is, over long stretches, there are generally always "trough years" for franchise-QB teams who win a lot more than they lose. In an actuarial sense, it's to be expected. Not counting Allen's rookie season, the Bills have made it to the playoffs four years in a row. This year might well be one of those expected trough years, though. The stars simply haven't been aligned: they have an extremely difficult schedule, had the NFL assign them a "home" game that was really a road game, and suffered a bunch of injuries to elite players on their defense that probably cost them the game against NE. If there's one loss I can point to that may end up crippling the Bills, it's the divisional loss to a terrible Pats team where an undermanned defense was completely overwhelmed, allowing one of the worst QBs in the league to put up elite numbers. That's the loss that sticks with me. I never expected them to beat Cincy, so I can live with that loss.

 

Great work.  
 

However all those teams and their coaches won Super Bowls let alone just got there. 
 

If this season ends how it’s currently going we will be entering year 8 of McD.  
 

And with the problem emerging that the O isn’t improving, and your franchise QB enters his age 28 season, it’s pretty much we need to figure it out right now.   
 

Herbert is going to get an offensive head coach starting next year.  The Texans and Colts are on the rise.  Denver looks competent again.  The Jets will have Rodgers.  
 

And none of the current top teams QBs are going anywhere.  
 

 

Time to move on.  Immediately.