Jump to content

Bills open -4.5 vs Jags. (Now -5.5)


Bookie Man

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Capco said:

I still have no idea how betting works, what these numbers mean, who gets to come up with them, or how they do it.

So thus far, bangarang's comment is (ironically) the only one that makes sense to me lol.  

haha no problem.

 

Vegas oddsmakers create the numbers. 

-4.5 means Bills are 4.5 point favorites. They have to win by 5. 

47.5 is the Over/Under. Total points scored by both teams. 

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Alpo Chino said:

-4.5 means Bills are 4.5 point favorites. They have to win by 5. 

47.5 is the Over/Under. Total points scored by both teams. 


So if I bet on the Jags to "win", and they lose by 4 points IRL, then I've won my bet because you subtract -4.5 points from the Bills score to determine the "betting score" (I'm making up terms so sorry if I'm massacring the lingo lol).  But let's say I bet $100 on this outcome... how much do I win?  How is that part calculated?

With the over/under thing, does that only affect the bets on the total points scored by both teams?  Or does it affect other types of bets too?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Capco said:


So if I bet on the Jags to "win", and they lose by 4 points IRL, then I've won my bet because you subtract -4.5 points from the Bills score to determine the "betting score" (I'm making up terms so sorry if I'm massacring the lingo lol).  But let's say I bet $100 on this outcome... how much do I win?  How is that part calculated?

With the over/under thing, does that only affect the bets on the total points scored by both teams?  Or does it affect other types of bets too?

If you bet on the Jags straight up and they lost, you’d lose your bet. If you bet them to cover the point spread, you win. I believe the cover bet is a 1:1, bet $100 to win $200 total (which includes your original bet). If you bet $100 on the Jags to win straight up, it’d depend on what the payout was. If its +150 on a Jags win, you win $150 on that $100 bet. $250 total. Conversely, if the Bills are -180, you’d have to bet $180 to win $100, $280 total. Over/under is simply the total amount of points scored by both teams. I believe that payout is also 1:1, someone correct me if I’m wrong.

  • Thank you (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Capco said:


So if I bet on the Jags to "win", and they lose by 4 points IRL, then I've won my bet because you subtract -4.5 points from the Bills score to determine the "betting score" (I'm making up terms so sorry if I'm massacring the lingo lol).  But let's say I bet $100 on this outcome... how much do I win?  How is that part calculated?

With the over/under thing, does that only affect the bets on the total points scored by both teams?  Or does it affect other types of bets too?

Correct. If you bet the jags with the points (4.5) and they lose by 4, then you win your bet. 

 

If you bet $100, you'd win about $82. The standard juice on a bet is -110. Easiest way to think about this is you would need to bet $110 to win $100 or $55 to win $50 etc. 

 

Over/Under is just total points scored in the game. If the final score was Bills 27 - Jags 23 , you would win if you bet the OVER (total points 50 being greater than 47.5) Same if the score was Bills 50 - Jags 0. 

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

If you bet on the Jags straight up and they lost, you’d lose your bet. If you bet them to cover the point spread, you win. I believe the cover bet is a 1:1, bet $100 to win $200 total (which includes your original bet). If you bet $100 on the Jags to win straight up, it’d depend on what the payout was. If its +150 on a Jags win, you win $150 on that $100 bet. $250 total. Conversely, if the Bills are -180, you’d have to bet $180 to win $100, $280 total. Over/under is simply the total amount of points scored by both teams. I believe that payout is also 1:1, someone correct me if I’m wrong.


Thanks!

Do you know how the "+150" and "-180" numbers in your example would be determined?

Additionally, from the thread title's use of the word "early", I assume these numbers change over time.  How and why do they change leading up to the game?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Alpo Chino said:

If you bet $100, you'd win about $82. The standard juice on a bet is -110. Easiest way to think about this is you would need to bet $110 to win $100 or $55 to win $50 etc. 


Gotcha!  The +/- thing makes sense now with both the $82 calculation and the "easiest way" numbers.  Thank you.

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Capco said:


Thanks!

Do you know how the "+150" and "-180" numbers in your example would be determined?

Additionally, from the thread title's use of the word "early", I assume these numbers change over time.  How and why do they change leading up to the game?

Not sure how Vegas determines those +/-payouts. Nick Wright (or wrong) posted a parlay bet a couple weeks ago that was something like +4500. The bet was that both the Commanders (vs DEN) and the Giants (vs AZ) would come back to win after trailing big. Both had to happen for the bet to hit and wouldn’t you know it, they did. Why was Nick Wright bragging? Because he put $500 on the parlay. That weird nose dude hit over $20,000 on that bet! 

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Capco said:


Thanks!

Do you know how the "+150" and "-180" numbers in your example would be determined?

Additionally, from the thread title's use of the word "early", I assume these numbers change over time.  How and why do they change leading up to the game?

Think the numbers are some formula of money bet on each team. The casino has to get their cut as middle man  so the numbers distribute the remaining funds from all bets  if even bets on both sides you'd get closer to a 1 to 1 payout.  If 4 Dolphins fans bet 10 each to 1 Bills fan u can't pay off 4 winning  bets from the 1 so they divide the 10 into to 4  parts to cover each of the Miami bets with a 2.50 win on their 10 bet.   At least it works something like that cause the casino doesn't want to give away money they take their cut rest is in pool for winning g bets  divided by the # of winners.

 

Basically the numbers change to try get both sides equal in bets made.

Edited by AuntieEm
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

Basically the numbers change to try get both sides equal in bets made.


Awesome.  I know this little tidbit you mention might seem obvious to folks who bet regularly, but for me this clarified a lot.  I instinctively knew the purpose of oddsmakers was to craft the odds so that the house always wins regardless of the outcome, but the overall principle that guides the oddsmakers in this process was eluding me.

Thanks a bunch!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While I know the Bills are the stronger team, the Jags get the advantage of playing today in England and staying there until they play us next weekend.  Not having to deal with the jet lag and disruption of the long flight over there is bound to be an advantage for them.   I don't care for this schedule, it tilts things in favor of the Jags by giving them two consecutive weeks there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Capco said:


Awesome.  I know this little tidbit you mention might seem obvious to folks who bet regularly, but for me this clarified a lot.  I instinctively knew the purpose of oddsmakers was to craft the odds so that the house always wins regardless of the outcome, but the overall principle that guides the oddsmakers in this process was eluding me.

Thanks a bunch!

I'm not really an expert just how I've always figured it works.  So if lot of money comes in on one side  the numbers change to encourage money to be placed to countervit.  So that's where a injury  could cause line to change say if Aaron got hurt before game and Jets fans knew they'd have to win with Zach Wilson doubt the lines would have stayed at the odds when they figured rogers would be qb.  Course once he got hurt bets were already made so  no change before game started.

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

F Jax, F Duuuuuvaaalllll, F the other Josh Allen.

 

Next week will be payback for that 9-6 debacle two years ago. 

I'm thinking the Mafia takes over in London.   Not sure how big jaguars are in London for all the games they have played there.  

Edited by AuntieEm
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

Ahh! Wasn't the the Nikell Robey phantom no contact PI game?


Yeah … they were down by heaps early on in the game … like 20+ from memory… made a great comeback and then stolen at the end 

Edited by Aussie Joe
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


Yeah … they were down by heaps early on in the game … like 20+ from memory… made a great comeback and then stolen at the end 

 

22 minutes ago, arcane said:

That was just insane. Worst call I've seen in my 18 years watching the Bills. The WR was not touched.

Didn't Shady get his clock cleaned on a goal line hit and fumbled it away? I remember that being a big turn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a very specific reason to revive this one.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...