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ESPN article ranking the top NFL rosters


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Just now, GoBills808 said:

How so?

 

Kelce>Diggs

JuJu>Davis

 

I agree with your basic premise that KC was not "questionable" in having good receiving targets, overall better than the Bills.

 

I'm a bit curious how you come up with Kelce > Diggs though.  By most metrics I don't think that tracks.

TikTokBoy > Davis and MVS > McK is a pretty straightforward case, and the Chiefs got more receiving from their RB as well.

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2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I agree with your basic premise that KC was not "questionable" in having good receiving targets, overall better than the Bills.

 

I'm a bit curious how you come up with Kelce > Diggs though.  By most metrics I don't think that tracks.

TikTokBoy > Davis and MVS > McK is a pretty straightforward case, and the Chiefs got more receiving from their RB as well.

Probably by statistical comparison Diggs is going to outproduce Kelce just by virtue of their positions

 

I meant Kelce is one of the best TEs of all time, he's got target value in that offense that goes beyond the numbers imo

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I've seen roster rankings between #3 to #8.

 

If the best rosters in each conference meet in the SB, it'll sadly be Philly and KC again.  At least according to ESPN.  

 

I do, personally, like our roster although our ability to dominate this season is riddled with if's...

 

...  if all of last year's walking wounded regain their health & form.

 

...  if Dorsey figures out how to use all his disparate weapons.

 

...  if a replacement to Edmunds steps up.

 

...  if our new stable of RBs works out.

 

...  if this year's OL is better than last year's.

 

On the whole, though, I'm actually probably a bit more optimistic this offseason than I was last offseason.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The lack of a bona-fide #2 wr absolutely kills this team. I think it's also effects the recent Diggs behavior.  Teams know after Stefon we're vulnerable.  That's why Diggs is getting doubled more than ever.  This year's team will have to depend more on Knox, Kincaid, Harty & Sherfield for support.  I personally have closed the book on Gabe. Whatever he contributes will be supplemental.  If Hyde,  Von and Tre can return healthy this defense will compete.  But once we enter the playoffs,  we must absolutely have a strong secondary target besides Diggs.

 

I wish we had a better #2.  But I don't think "the absence of a bona-fide #2 absolutely kills this team."  I like the diversity and overall depth of the receiving corps.  I like Harty and Sherfield in the roles they'll likely play.  I like the different skill sets of Knox and Kincaid.  I like Cook and Hines out of the backfield.  

 

I think we'll pass for a lot of yards and score a lot of points.  This isn't a dead/killed offense.  It's a very potent and dangerous one.   But, yeah, it would be more dangerous if Diggs had a nearly equally skilled partner on the other side.  

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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

throw in White who I don't expect to every really regain his form and there's an argument that the defense is in big trouble

 

Why?

 

Most players who have had an ACL injury seem to find the 1st year back a struggle, and the 2nd year back much closer to form.

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1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I think I'd rather have 1 star and 1 solid starter than 4 solid starters in today's NFL.

I disagreed with your statement.   But i wanna make sure you are limiting it to CBs.

 

In this day and age, your Nickel CB is a starter.  And he'd better be starter quality, at least.   And with the TE position being like a 4th WR, and also the defensive position (real or planned by McD) of "big-nickel" and yeah.  I prefer 3-4 starters.  We dont really need a star.  No team does at CB.

 

Of course if you have one (sauce gardner) you can plan your defense around him.   But that was already your defene probably.  That's why you drafted him.

 

---

 

otoh, if your statement applies to other positions, That sounds like a juicy thread topic. 

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9 minutes ago, maddenboy said:

I disagreed with your statement.   But i wanna make sure you are limiting it to CBs.

 

In this day and age, your Nickel CB is a starter.  And he'd better be starter quality, at least.   And with the TE position being like a 4th WR, and also the defensive position (real or planned by McD) of "big-nickel" and yeah.  I prefer 3-4 starters.  We dont really need a star.  No team does at CB.

 

Of course if you have one (sauce gardner) you can plan your defense around him.   But that was already your defene probably.  That's why you drafted him.

 

---

 

otoh, if your statement applies to other positions, That sounds like a juicy thread topic. 

Stars make the plays that win in the NFL.

 

It's why having Diggs is so much more important than a John Brown and Cole Beasley.

 

It's why the Rams, with a top heavy, star-studded roster won a Superbowl. And the Bills with such great depth but not enough stars hasn't.

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I generally disregard everything coming from ESPN anymore.  I do pay attention to various sports book sources and almost all don't have the Bill's in crisis mode as most New York based media do.  Many Bills fans read some of these opinion pieces and their hair immediately catches fire.  There are really very few inside media sources that have a clue about talent levels of teams.  We seem to go through this every summer and at least for the last four years, the sky hasn't fallen.  We just need to chill until we actually see the team in some full speed action.

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2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The lack of a bona-fide #2 wr absolutely kills this team. I think it's also effects the recent Diggs behavior.  Teams know after Stefon we're vulnerable.  That's why Diggs is getting doubled more than ever.  This year's team will have to depend more on Knox, Kincaid, Harty & Sherfield for support.  I personally have closed the book on Gabe. Whatever he contributes will be supplemental.  If Hyde,  Von and Tre can return healthy this defense will compete.  But once we enter the playoffs,  we must absolutely have a strong secondary target besides Diggs.

Wow. Quite the strong take, here. There's no reason to believe that.

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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Probably by statistical comparison Diggs is going to outproduce Kelce just by virtue of their positions

I meant Kelce is one of the best TEs of all time, he's got target value in that offense that goes beyond the numbers imo

 

Don't buy the "by virtue of their positions".  Kelce is split out wide much of the time; given his number of targets, he absolutely functions as a receiver in the Chief's offense, usually a slot but sometimes on deeper routes.   Diggs and Kelce were both the #1 receivers on their teams last season, by every metric

 

And, you could say that Diggs has target value in the Bills offense that gores beyond the numbers as well - in fact, given the (correct IMO) argument that the rest of the WR corps was better on the Chiefs than on the Bills, wouldn't you have to argue that Diggs has value that goes beyond the numbers as well?  Kelce is "Pat's guy", but Diggs has been "Allen's guy" the last couple years - in fact one of Diggs dissatisfactions may very well be that he was less "The Man" in Dorsey's offense.

 

Anyway, potato potahto - on the fundamental point about the relative quality of the receiving corps last year, we seem to agree KC > Bills.

 

So we can both take the flak for that argument

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54 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

This seems flawed from the beginning. It measures how many players play for 3 years post ACL surgery, while ignoring that the average career is only about 3.5 years. WHY are they out of the league? It may be knee related, or guys just don’t last that long. You would expect a low percentage. 

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7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Don't buy the "by virtue of their positions".  Kelce is split out wide much of the time; given his number of targets, he absolutely functions as a receiver in the Chief's offense, usually a slot but sometimes on deeper routes.   Diggs and Kelce were both the #1 receivers on their teams last season, by every metric

 

And, you could say that Diggs has target value in the Bills offense that gores beyond the numbers as well - in fact, given the (correct IMO) argument that the rest of the WR corps was better on the Chiefs than on the Bills, wouldn't you have to argue that Diggs has value that goes beyond the numbers as well?  Kelce is "Pat's guy", but Diggs has been "Allen's guy" the last couple years - in fact one of Diggs dissatisfactions may very well be that he was less "The Man" in Dorsey's offense.

 

Anyway, potato potahto - on the fundamental point about the relative quality of the receiving corps last year, we seem to agree KC > Bills.

 

So we can both take the flak for that argument

I could phrase it differently👍

 

I don't think the concept that Kelce is a better TE than Diggs is a WR should be controversial 

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

This seems flawed from the beginning. It measures how many players play for 3 years post ACL surgery, while ignoring that the average career is only about 3.5 years. WHY are they out of the league? It may be knee related, or guys just don’t last that long. You would expect a low percentage. 

It also measured how often and how well they played within that period and the trends are not favorable

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27 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I could phrase it differently👍

 

I don't think the concept that Kelce is a better TE than Diggs is a WR should be controversial 

It also measured how often and how well they played within that period and the trends are not favorable

 

I don’t have time to look now, so I’ll take your word for it, though it sounds like it’s getting into subjective territory.

 

Our son tore his ACL and it took a while for him to be himself in sports, but he fully recovered. More than a decade later it’s giving him some issues, but he played at 100% eventually. I think that is the case with most people. It’s certainly not like the old days where a torn ACL was a career killer, like Robert James. 

 

Still, saying only 28.5% are still in the league 3 years later still sounds like a leading statement, and maybe even misleading. What percentage of players without ACL surgery are still in the league 3 years later. How different is that number? 

 

 

.

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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

 

 I believe that's the same study I brought up when folks were all "Tre White should be back on the field already or it means he had some setback!" and I'm like no, the average RTP is 12 months so he's on schedule.

 

There's some points - for example, how do the stats on being in the league 3 years post injury compare to a control group that didn't have an ACL reconstruction?  And obviously marginal players who were barely hanging on, are going to be less likely to get further chances vs. starters and stars.

 

But there's a little bit of strangeness here.  Lemme see if I can bring in the graph (it should get bigger if you click). 
10.1177_23259671221079637-fig3.jpeg

Quote

Figure 3. Box plots demonstrating (A) the approximate value and (B) the snap count pre- and post-ACLR. The X on the box plot represents the mean, the center line represents the median, error bars represent SDs, and circles represent outliers. ACLR, anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction; Pre-ACLR, before ACL injury and reconstruction; Post-ACLR, after ACL injury and reconstruction.

Text: The average AV was 4.3 (5.3 SD) preinjury and 1.5 (5.3 SD) postinjury, averaged across 3 seasons pre- and postinjury (Figure 3A). Thus, players were not able to return to their preinjury level of play in terms of AV (P < .0001).

 

TL;DR - the text says that there's a significant difference in AV pre and post injury.  But the figure caption says that X is the mean, the center line represents the median - not the average.  And it's the center line that is 4.3 and 1.5 (called out in the figure legend as the median). 

If "X" is the mean, then given the size of the error bars, the difference is much less significant.  That's not a nit - it's something the authors and the reviewer should have clarified prior to publication.

 

Whether or not that's an error, we see a similar phenomenon when we look at the more relevant position specific change in AV here.  We see that for DBs, the change in AV is small (-4.5) and the error bars straddle 0.

10.1177_23259671221079637-fig4.jpeg

 

It's entirely possible that Tre' won't return to his previous "Takeaway Tre'" , first-team all-Pro level of play.  But I don't think that article provides very strong support for an argument that he won't.

 

🤷‍♂️

 

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15 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I don’t have time to look now, so I’ll take your word for it, though it sounds like it’s getting into subjective territory.

 

Our son tore his ACL and it took a while for him to be himself in sports, but he fully recovered. More than a decade later it’s giving him some issues, but he played at 100% eventually. I think that is the case with most people. It’s certainly not like the old days where a torn ACL was a career killer, like Robert James. 

 

Still, saying only 28.5% are still in the league 3 years later still sounds like a leading statement, and maybe even misleading. What percentage of players without ACL surgery are still in the league 3 years later. How different is that number? 

 

 

.

Ive done both my ACLs during collegiate athletics

 

I didn't come back to 100%. Granted reconstructive surgery and rehab is better in the NFL and they have better techniques now but it's not the same as before imo

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Third in the league seems really, really optimistic to me right now.

 

The Bengals are a better team than us, to name 1 team that should be ahead of us on that list.

 

I hope it's accurate!

 

 

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4 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

No objections for that. They are. Harty is on his 2nd team. Sherfield his fourth. But I don't see that as a negative.

 

By that definition Beasley (Bills were his 2md team), John Brown (Bills were his 3rd in his first run), Crowder (Bills 3rd team) were journeymen as well. In fact, more players then not in this day and age would fall under "journeymen" label.

 

Your definition is incorrect.

 

The first definition of a sports journeyman is "technically competent but unable to excel".

 

"Played for a lot of teams" is a secondary definition and more of a description of the tendency of such player to bounce around than the primary definition.    

 

Case in point.......you can play for a lot of teams and not be a "journeyman"........see LeBron James for example.

 

Beasley, Brown and Crowder all excelled at points prior to joining the Bills.......each had had 800+ yard seasons and Brown had even had a 1,000+.  

 

Harty and Sherfield have never had a big season between them and have both averaged less than 200 yards per season over their careers.    

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4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Just can't shake the feeling that we are relying on 3 players in Hyde/Poyer/Miller...all coming off significant injuries whose combined age is 98 years old

 

throw in White who I don't expect to every really regain his form and there's an argument that the defense is in big trouble

This is the most likely area for "unexpected" problems in 2023. (except for the reasons you mentioned, they should be expected).   This is Ed Oliver's defense now. 

14 minutes ago, MJS said:

The Chiefs have mediocre receivers.

That Kelce guy blows (i know he is TE, but is a trivial distinction)

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2 hours ago, Chaos said:

That Kelce guy blows (i know he is TE, but is a trivial distinction)

The comment was specifically about receivers, but you are always moving the goalposts.

 

The Chiefs have one elite receiving option in Kelce, the Bills have one elite receiving option in Diggs. The rest are not as consequential of weapons. I think the Bills and Chiefs are in similar shoes when it comes to their receiving weapons.

 

The Chiefs have a better oline, though, and Mahomes is more consistently elite than Allen. The Chiefs for sure have a better offense overall, I think. But they do not have elite wide receivers at all. That is one of their weak spots, and they have tried to address it in the draft and free agency with mixed results.

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10 minutes ago, MJS said:

The comment was specifically about receivers, but you are always moving the goalposts.

 

The Chiefs have one elite receiving option in Kelce, the Bills have one elite receiving option in Diggs. The rest are not as consequential of weapons. I think the Bills and Chiefs are in similar shoes when it comes to their receiving weapons.

 

The Chiefs have a better oline, though, and Mahomes is more consistently elite than Allen. The Chiefs for sure have a better offense overall, I think. But they do not have elite wide receivers at all. That is one of their weak spots, and they have tried to address it in the draft and free agency with mixed results.

 

I didn't even set a goal post.  But your point on the Chiefs is absurd.  Practically disqualifies you from having an opinion on the subject. 

 

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7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Just can't shake the feeling that we are relying on 3 players in Hyde/Poyer/Miller...all coming off significant injuries whose combined age is 98 years old

 

throw in White who I don't expect to every really regain his form and there's an argument that the defense is in big trouble

The Bills are strapped by the Cap. So they have to hope and pray the older experienced guys can stay healthy. How likely are there to stay relatively healthy and be ready come playoff time? 

 

Its not optimal but that's the situation they are in. 

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Third in the league seems really, really optimistic to me right now.

 

The Bengals are a better team than us, to name 1 team that should be ahead of us on that list.

 

I hope it's accurate!

 

 

Hard not to think they aren't after what we saw last year. 

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9 minutes ago, MJS said:

The comment was specifically about receivers, but you are always moving the goalposts.

 

The Chiefs have one elite receiving option in Kelce, the Bills have one elite receiving option in Diggs. The rest are not as consequential of weapons. I think the Bills and Chiefs are in similar shoes when it comes to their receiving weapons.

 

The Chiefs have a better oline, though, and Mahomes is more consistently elite than Allen. The Chiefs for sure have a better offense overall, I think. But they do not have elite wide receivers at all. That is one of their weak spots, and they have tried to address it in the draft and free agency with mixed results.

 

 

In fairness the Chiefs drafted Kelce and Tyreek Hill during the Reid regime.........2 All Pro's........and they had them together until just last season.    

 

Sammy Watkins was an overpay.   Mecole Hardman was overdrafted but produced like Gabriel Davis has for his first 3 years before getting injured.

 

Since then they dealt Hill and then signed Juju and MVS and they both played up to expectations.......Juju finished 24th in receiving yards and MVS was who he always has been.   And they have drafted 2 guys in round 2 and traded picks for a 2021 1st rounder.........so at least the cupboard is loaded with high pedigree young receivers to fill the Juju role.

 

This Bills regime situation at WR is much different.    They haven't drafted any stars.   They haven't even drafted a WR early since 2017.   They had to trade a 1st rounder and pay Stef Diggs big dollars because they didn't have a WR1 and couldn't wait any longer.   They are short on cap space in part because they had to fill all their starting roles at WR with short-term-fix free agents between 2019-2021.   They have since become increasingly reliant on journeymen and late round fliers and are asking too much of a limited player like Gabe Davis.   Hopefully the Kincaid pick ends all that futility in the draft but drafting a TE to play slot WR is more of a projection than drafting receivers to play receiver.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MJS said:

The comment was specifically about receivers, but you are always moving the goalposts.

 

The Chiefs have one elite receiving option in Kelce, the Bills have one elite receiving option in Diggs. The rest are not as consequential of weapons. I think the Bills and Chiefs are in similar shoes when it comes to their receiving weapons.

 

The Chiefs have a better oline, though, and Mahomes is more consistently elite than Allen. The Chiefs for sure have a better offense overall, I think. But they do not have elite wide receivers at all. That is one of their weak spots, and they have tried to address it in the draft and free agency with mixed results.

The Chiefs oline is elite. Mahomes is the best QB in the league and has a legit chance to give Brady a run. 

 

As a result, their WRs don't need to be elite. 

Edited by newcam2012
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It’s kind of amazing how a thread that began by noting the Bills have (in someone’s opinion) the 3rd best roster in the entire league quickly deteriorated into a b-i-t-c-h session about how we are doomed.  Gotta love this place.

 

After Diggs the WR room is a big unknown, but there are players there with ability who perhaps haven’t yet been put in the right positions to become “the best versions of themselves” (to quote our favorite clapper).  I still have hope for Davis and believe last season was his floor, not his ceiling.

 

One perspective is to say the Bills “failed” to address the WR2 position.  Another is to say they completely reshuffled the deck.  The truth is that we have no idea how these guys will play because we haven’t seen them yet (Harty, Sherfield, Kincaid).  We don’t know what Shakir can bring with more reps.  Would DHop give the Bills a more intimidating presence?  Of course.  Maybe that still happens.

 

The key to this offense functioning at a high level this season isn’t (in my opinion) who the WR2 is…it’s the performance of the OL.  I was very disappointed in how that group played last year and expected more from a unit coached by “Beach Chairs” Kromer.  I hope the rookie immediately takes one of the guard spots and the other additions prove to be upgrades.  Dawkins had a bad year and needs to bounce back.  Brown, for all of his potential and nasty demeanor, needs to actually show that he can play NFL football.  This unit is the key to the season.

 

The Bills’ defense will be good enough to keep them in every game, and Josh Allen is one of the top 5 players in the entire league.

 

I’m optimistic.  But that’s just me.

 

Go Bills!

 

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16 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The lack of a bona-fide #2 wr absolutely kills this team. I think it's also effects the recent Diggs behavior.  Teams know after Stefon we're vulnerable.  That's why Diggs is getting doubled more than ever.  This year's team will have to depend more on Knox, Kincaid, Harty & Sherfield for support.  I personally have closed the book on Gabe. Whatever he contributes will be supplemental.  If Hyde,  Von and Tre can return healthy this defense will compete.  But once we enter the playoffs,  we must absolutely have a strong secondary target besides Diggs.

Yeah, the team that was 2nd in points per game was really hard to watch. If only they could have averaged  .8 points per game more, they would have tied KC for most points per game. In the entire league. Absolutely brutal to watch, I tell ya. Absolutely disgusting! 😂😂😂

 

Some of you are insufferable. 

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offensive weapon production was our most obvious problem last year (signing brown and bease out of the UPS application process proves this) but our 3 biggest team weaknesses were

 

1 blocking

2 pass rush down the stretch

3 defensive predictability/passiveness/inability to adjust

 

they've thrown the kitchen sink at these items over the past 3 years.  we signed dude from the rams, von is coming back, and aj, groot, and the young guys on the team (not to mention resigning oliver, not that i'm a huge booster of his) are in a position to show what they got.

 

on OL, the basically got 2 new IOL starters, and we have some kind of competition at RT, and obv we hope brown's back is healed

 

on D scheme/coaching, we made the biggest change (at least one year late IMO).  removing the wood of frasier and having the top guy in the organization clapping at the d in his scheme is the most aggressive thing a head coach can do.

 

does anyone remember when the giants HC blew out the OC and called offensive plays himself?  that lead to the giants to getting to the superbowl.  they lost badly to the ravens, but the talent level on that giants team was like barely top 10.  the OC that got the boot was sean payton, who is obviously a good coach.  it just wanst working and the change made a very positive impact for them.  I think McD might be able to get the same impact this year

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17 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Just can't shake the feeling that we are relying on 3 players in Hyde/Poyer/Miller...all coming off significant injuries whose combined age is 98 years old

 

throw in White who I don't expect to every really regain his form and there's an argument that the defense is in big trouble

 

Throw in another player and you're over 100.  😁

 

Seriously tho, Miller was a high-risk acquisition and unfortunately, although I wouldn't say surprisingly at 34, we reaped the risk end of that deal.  At some point it's not unreasonable to question our team building methodologies.  

 

The other thing that I've not seen mentioned so far, is that we also still don't have a proven MLB.  Given how bad our rushing D was at times, that should be of concern.  

 

 

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16 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

OK I could accept that argument, but I'm also pretty sure we run 2TE sets at one of the lowest frequencies in the league so the value in a hypothetical strong TE duo is marginal

 

Which brings up another issue on offense.

 

We'll see how things go this season from the coaching side of things.  You can have all you need on a roster, but if you don't put them all to their most effective use, and appropriately in the right situations, then it becomes problematic.  

 

 

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16 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

It’s Beanes weak spot… dude prioritizes RBs over WRs.😅

 

Shhh!!  Beane doesn't have a weak spot!  

 

Besides, that's not at all true, just look at his draft history:

 

2nd Round:  1 RB

3rd Round:  2 RBs 

4th Round:  1 WR

5th Round:  2 WRs

6th Round:  3 WRs (none still here) 

7th Round:  1 WR (no longer here) 

 

Day 1:  None

Day 2:  3 RBs

Day 3:  7 WRs (only 3 still here, one likely in his last season, the other two from this past draft and last year's draft) 

 

So it's clearly not true, and probably best never to challenge Beane's methods here again.  (sarcasm) 

 

Sidenote:  The only great WR he's ever brought here, we paid top dollar for and had a drama history. 

 

 

16 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I guess the countered would be how many really good offensive players has he drafted. Obviously, the Allen pick supersedes all other picks but we haven’t exactly be loading up on offensive talent in the draft. And when you have a qb making top money, you need to nail the draft. 

 

still have a top 3 roster so huge tip of the cap. But keeping a team where guys are making good money good every year is very difficult. 

 

I'm curious how good everyone would think that our roster would be if Allen weren't on it. 

 

We'll never know the answer to that, but I have my suspicions. 

 

 

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16 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

The question, of course, is whether we plan to continue to run 2TE sets at one of the lowest frequencies in the league?

 

If so, then obviously investing a 1st round pick on Kincaid was foolish.

 

But I don't think that's the plan.

 

I believe that at the "U" in Miami, Dorsey made heavy use of his TE as receiving weapons. 

In Carolina, it was Mike Shula's offense of course, but once they acquired Ed Dickson in FA, he was on the field almost half the time while Greg Olson was taking >95% of the snaps.  Most of those years, Olson was also leading the team in receiving yards.

 

So at least in theory, Dorsey knows how to utilize 2 TE sets in the passing game. 

 

At The U Dorsey always had either Reggie Wayne or Andre Johnson, and Shockey or Winslow.  He also had Portis and McGahee as an aside.  

 

 

16 hours ago, loyal2dagame said:

Hyde and Poyer at 80% are still head and shoulders above any other safety pair in the league. We've know what Davis is since mid season last year.  The Bills are going to be fine. 

 

The question there is age/health.

 

If they're not in the field...

 

 

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