Dungy/Colts vs McDermott/Bills

[Mikie2times]

Sean McDermott and the Bills have some striking similarities to those Colts teams in the 2000's. Sean McDermott and Tony Dungy have some striking statistical similarities as well. What we are seeing amongst our fan base is actually very similar to what Colts fans experienced in those years. 

 

The NFL has had 145 coaches who at least had one year during the Super Bowl era and also coached at least 5 seasons

• Tony Dungy ranks 8th all time in regular season winning % in that sample, Sean McDermott ranks 12th
• Tony Dungy ranks 1st all time in % of years coaching that resulted in a playoff birth (85%), Sean McDermott ranks 2nd (83%)

 

No coach in NFL history (outside Sean McDermott) with 5 or more years in coaching, and led his team to a playoff birth 70% of the time has failed to win a Super Bowl. This also includes Tony Dungy. Other qualifying coaches are John Madden, Andy Reid, Mike Holmgren, Pete Carrol, and Bill Walsh. At even 60% or greater, 33 Super Bowls are represented with the only coaches to not win one being Bud Grant, Marty Schottenheimer, Dennis Green, and Mike Vrabel. 19 of 24 coaches that led teams to the playoffs 60% or more of the time won at least one.

 

In the above context Sean McDermott has not just been good, he has been historically good. Same as Dungy, and both were good in somewhat similar situations. Both  defensive minded, zone defenses at that, elite QB's, facing off against the combination of a juggernaut QB and coaching tandem. 

 

• Colts first season with Dungy they lost in the Wild Card 
• Colts second season with Dungy they lost in the AFC Championship
• Colts third season with Dungy they lost in the Divisional round
• Colts fourth season with Dungy they lost in the Wild Card
• Colts fifth season with Dungy they won the Super Bowl

 

As far as playoff losses, those Colts teams have been very similar to what we have seen from Buffalo. By no means was the path linear and I would argue that part of what allowed the Colts to finally breakthrough was just showing up year after year. The historical data on just showing up that often becomes pretty overwhelming. Dungy would go onto coach 2 more years. Ousted by the Chargers in the Wild Card round both times. 

 

In this time, Dungy was a polarizing figure. That Colts team, like this Bills team, was elite. Expectations were very high. Most Colts fans would argue they didn't achieve what they should have despite winning a Super Bowl. So when people support Sean McDermott at a high level, he deserves it. Further, when people are not supportive. That's understandable as well. Plenty of space exists for both opinions and neither disqualifies you as a fan. 

 

Sorry in advance for another McDermott related thread, I just think the history of the Colts team can teach us some things on why people feel the way that they do. It doesn't need to be so polarizing. We all want the same thing.  

 

Go Bills!   

 

 

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

Here’s another similarity.  Dungy  had to face a HOF coach in Belichick and a HOF QB in Brady every year.  McD has to face the same in Reid and Mahomes.  Even with great QBs (Manning, Allen) it’s just not that easy to beat a combo like those.

[boater]

A borderline positive thread about McDermott.. not allowed. Are you not aware of the zeitgeist on this board?

 

[LABILLBACKER]

So in other words there's a chance....

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Here’s another similarity.  Dungy  had to face a HOF coach in Belichick and a HOF QB in Brady every year.  McD has to face the same in Reid and Mahomes.  Even with great QBs (Manning, Allen) it’s just not that easy to beat a combo like those.

Terrible to think the Bills role under McDermott is to be Reid's B word.  But what is worse, is we are looking more like the Steelers with Big Ben, hoping that Brady and Manning both have an off year. 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Terrible to think the Bills role under McDermott is to be Reid's B word.  But what is worse, is we are looking more like the Steelers with Big Ben, hoping that Brady and Manning both have an off year. 

We’ll get there.  Right now we have three great QBs in the conference.  Mahomes, Josh, Burrow.  But things will change around them.  Burrow won’t keep his WR crew.  Kelce will age.  Kincaid will find his way for us.  And so on.  Should be great football to watch for the next decade or so.

[Nextmanup]

* playoff berth*

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

My biggest comparison was the 2 teams offensive lines. I can only pray our line gets better... 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So in other words there's a chance....

 

Haha, yeah. There is a chance that Allen drags McDermott kicking and screaming to a Super Bowl like Manning dragged Dungy.

[Mikie2times]

40 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Haha, yeah. There is a chance that Allen drags McDermott kicking and screaming to a Super Bowl like Manning dragged Dungy.

We just don't know who he will become yet. He could be Marty or he could be Madden. Statements like this are why the board is so polarized. 

 

The year the Colts won the Super Bowl, Manning had 3 TD's and 7 INT's. Prior to that year, in playoff losses he had 2 TD's and 7 INT's. Manning hardly pulled Dungy to a Super Bowl. They won it as a result of swings at the plate which is exactly what McDermott has done. With swings at the plate the likelihood of success is greater.    

 

Dungy certainly not the first example of a coach that took awhile when an active dynasty was erupting. I know you wish that active dynasty was us, perhaps it can be. I don't believe it's just a coach away. If you do, so be it.   

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Haha, yeah. There is a chance that Allen drags McDermott kicking and screaming to a Super Bowl like Manning dragged Dungy.

Not sure if Manning did the dragging. Many at that time thought Peyton crumbled under pressure in those first four playoffs years. It took experiencing and learning from those failures that finally propelled him (and Dungy) past Brady/Belichick. Even in the game they broke through they were down 21-3 at halftime. I remember thinking Peyton was choking again as I watched. So there’s hope that both McD and Allen can learn from their past failures to finally propel them through. 

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Haha, yeah. There is a chance that Allen drags McDermott kicking and screaming to a Super Bowl like Manning dragged Dungy.

 

Without Dungy's defense, Manning doesn't win a Lombardi in Indy.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Nice topic OP.

 

Another similarity so far anyway is the dominance of KC today is similar to the dominance of New England during the Peyton and Dungy years. 

 

2023 Bills = Mid 2000 Colts

2023 Bengals = Mid 2000 Steelers

2023 Chiefs = Mid 2000 Patriots

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

Terrible to think the Bills role under McDermott is to be Reid's B word.  But what is worse, is we are looking more like the Steelers with Big Ben, hoping that Brady and Manning both have an off year. 

 

I think you have it backwards. Bills are the Peyton Manning Colts. Bengals, who have already been to a Super Bowl with a QB in his second season (just like Big Ben) and a AFC Championship game appearance in the next season, are Big Ben's Steelers. 

 

The Big Ben Steelers had more post season success than the Peyton Manning Colts. 3 appearance and two rings to 2 appearances and one ring. 

 

As the OP mentioned, we are playing the longevity game. Just get to the dance every year and eventually the ball will bounce our way and we will win one title. Question is, will that be this year, next year or 5+ years down the road? As long as we are making the dance every year we have a legit shot. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

We just don't know who he will become yet. He could be Marty or he could be Madden. Statements like this are why the board is so polarized. 

 

The year the Colts won the Super Bowl, Manning had 3 TD's and 7 INT's. Prior to that year, in playoff losses he had 2 TD's and 7 INT's. Manning hardly pulled Dungy to a Super Bowl. They won it as a result of swings at the plate which is exactly what McDermott has done. With swings at the plate the likelihood of success is greater.    

 

Dungy certainly not the first example of a coach that took awhile when an active dynasty was erupting. I know you wish that active dynasty was us, perhaps it can be. I don't believe it's just a coach away. If you do, so be it.   

 

It appears McDermott is in a critical year. Even on borrowed time. Coaches don't win their first super bowl after year 5 when they have a Bonafide franchise QB. Allen and McDermott just completed year 5 together. Dungy hit the jack pot in year 5. McDermott did not. 

 

 

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

We just don't know who he will become yet. He could be Marty or he could be Madden. Statements like this are why the board is so polarized. 

 

The year the Colts won the Super Bowl, Manning had 3 TD's and 7 INT's. Prior to that year, in playoff losses he had 2 TD's and 7 INT's. Manning hardly pulled Dungy to a Super Bowl. They won it as a result of swings at the plate which is exactly what McDermott has done. With swings at the plate the likelihood of success is greater.    

 

Dungy certainly not the first example of a coach that took awhile when an active dynasty was erupting. I know you wish that active dynasty was us, perhaps it can be. I don't believe it's just a coach away. If you do, so be it.   

I think we all have a pretty good idea of who McDermott is as far as historical HC's.  It will be up to Josh to determine what legacy Sean has.

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It appears McDermott is in a critical year. Even on borrowed time. Coaches don't win their first super bowl after year 5 when they have a Bonafide franchise QB. Allen and McDermott just completed year 5 together. Dungy hit the jack pot in year 5. McDermott did not. 

Josh has only been elite for three seasons though while Manning was already elite when Dungy got there.  There's no perfect comparison. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Josh has only been elite for three seasons though while Manning was already elite when Dungy got there.  There's no perfect comparison. 

 

True. Which is likely why unless the bottom totally falls out, McDermott will likely be fired at the conclusion of the 2024 season at the earliest. If he is fired at all. 

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Josh has only been elite for three seasons though while Manning was already elite when Dungy got there.  There's no perfect comparison. 

True, we could also say Josh has performed better than Manning so far in the playoffs. Again, not a perfect comparison. Lots of angles to this. 

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Haha, yeah. There is a chance that Allen drags McDermott kicking and screaming to a Super Bowl like Manning dragged Dungy.

I think that's the likely way it happens if it happens. 

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

True. Which is likely why unless the bottom totally falls out, McDermott will likely be fired at the conclusion of the 2024 season at the earliest. If he is fired at all. 

Agreed.  The only scenario I see him being fired this coming season is a 5-12 record or worse with a healthy Allen.  He grew up a Steelers fan and probably wants to follow their head coaching model.

[newcam2012]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

Agreed.  The only scenario I see him being fired this coming season is a 5-12 record or worse with a healthy Allen.  He grew up a Steelers fan and probably wants to follow their head coaching model.

I just can't see how the Bills go 5-12 with a healthy Allen. No way!

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Please correct me if I am remembering incorrectly.  But I am fairly sure during that SuperBowl playoff run Manning overruled Dungy on a 4th down call when they were behind I believe to the Patriots at home. Manning kept the offense on the field and converted the first down when it appeared Dungy was going to punt it away.

Thus the narrative that Manning won despite Dungy.

But as others have said even during that SB run Manning had some really bad games with costly INTs.

[Dr.Sack]

The question is how good will McDermott be in dialing up defensive game plans similar to Belichick in the 2000s? McDermott was brought in as a defensive guru. McDermott needs to find answers and design defenses to stop the Bengals, Chiefs and anyone else in the most critical moments of the regular season and playoffs.
 

McDermott often cites as one of his ideologies “growth mindset”.
 

How much has McDermott’s football IQ improved since taking over in 2017? Is it safe to assume the defense should perform better than Frazier’s defenses?
 

Outside of defensive game plans and gameday command. Can McDermott improve his communication skills and get Diggs back and fully invested? 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Dr.Sack

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Here’s another similarity.  Dungy  had to face a HOF coach in Belichick and a HOF QB in Brady every year.  McD has to face the same in Reid and Mahomes.  Even with great QBs (Manning, Allen) it’s just not that easy to beat a combo like those.

 

 

Nice point.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It appears McDermott is in a critical year. Even on borrowed time. Coaches don't win their first super bowl after year 5 when they have a Bonafide franchise QB. Allen and McDermott just completed year 5 together. Dungy hit the jack pot in year 5. McDermott did not. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nah, bad comparison. For several reasons. 

 

First, Dungy's Colts didn't start with a rebuild, they reloaded and were immediately a damn good team. McDermott and Beane rebuilt. They were not Super Bowl competitive for the first three years. Which is what happens with rebuilds nearly always. 

 

Second, if McDermott were in a critical year they simply wouldn't have given him the new contract. You're confusing your opinion with Pegula's. His is the important one, and he very clearly disagrees with you.

 

Third, Allen was not elite or close till the last three years. Not five.

 

Fourth, Andy Reid had a bonafide franchise QB in Philly. McNabb was not elite, no Josh Allen. But a franchise guy? Without question. Reid won his first SB way way way after year five.

 

 

[Einstein]

8 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Without Dungy's defense, Manning doesn't win a Lombardi in Indy.

 

The Dungy defense that gave up 30+ points in the Championship game and Manning had to relentlessly score? 

[Chicken Boo]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

The Dungy defense that gave up 30+ points in the Championship game and Manning had to relentlessly score? 

 

The Dungey defense that held the Patriots to 13 points in the 2nd half, yes.  

[teef]

i can already see the set up.  if this team goes to a super bowl, it will be all because of allen, and mcd will just be along for the ride.  if the bills win a super bowl, there will be more criticism that this staff isn't good enough because they only won one.  this is nice.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

8 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

The Dungy defense that gave up 30+ points in the Championship game and Manning had to relentlessly score? 

Actually is was only 27 points given up by the defense.  The Pats scored on a pick 6. 

[Bobby Hooks]

1 minute ago, teef said:

i can already see the set up.  if this team goes to a super bowl, it will be all because of allen, and mcd will just be along for the ride.  if the bills win a super bowl, there will be more criticism that this staff isn't good enough because they only won one.  this is nice.

If they win the Super Bowl, put me in the who gives #€£%! category. 
 

Actually, you can put me in that category now if you’re putting a list together. 

 

Are you putting a list together? 

[Gregg]

5 minutes ago, teef said:

i can already see the set up.  if this team goes to a super bowl, it will be all because of allen, and mcd will just be along for the ride.  if the bills win a super bowl, there will be more criticism that this staff isn't good enough because they only won one.  this is nice.

 

If McDermott can win one Super Bowl for the Bills, he will be considered the greatest coach in Buffalo (not just Bills) history. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Gregg

[teef]

Just now, Bobby Hooks said:

If they win the Super Bowl, put me in the who gives #€£%! category. 
 

Actually, you can put me in that category now if you’re putting a list together. 

 

Are you putting a list together? 

there's a list.  an exclusive list.  get behind the velvet rope buddy.

Just now, Gregg said:

 

If McDermott can win one Super Bowl for the Bills, he will considered the greatest coach in Buffalo (not just Bills) history. 

i completely argee...for about 98% of people.  there are others who are far to invested on proving him to be less than, (and they may be right) and will absolutely not admit who good of a coach he actually was.

[uticaclub]

Dungy finally won a Super Bowl because the defense played lights out on the run, we missed the Super Bowl because our defense couldn't hold a lead with 13 seconds. Also, don’t think that Colts teams beats a team with a better QB than Rex Grossman.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, teef said:

there's a list.  an exclusive list.  get behind the velvet rope buddy.

i completely argee...for about 98% of people.  there are others who are far to invested on proving him to be less than, (and they may be right) and will absolutely not admit who good of a coach he actually was.

 

I hope the Bills can win multiple championships of course but just give me one. I want to experience a Bills Super Bowl championship just once. 

[teef]

1 minute ago, Gregg said:

 

I hope the Bills can win multiple championships of course but just give me one. I want to experience a Bills Super Bowl championship just once. 

i'm not greedy.  i'd be thrilled to see one.  

[Dablitzkrieg]

Can you imagine wanting to fire the winningest coach in Bills history because of a fake narrative that he is not offensive minded?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

Fourth, Andy Reid had a bonafide franchise QB in Philly. McNabb was not elite, no Josh Allen. But a franchise guy? Without question. Reid won his first SB way way way after year five.

 

 

I guess I didn’t clarify. With the same team. Doesn’t do the bills any good if McDermott wins in year 10 with some other team.

 

all your other points I agree with. But there’s still the caveat that for a myriad of different reasons, NFL head coaches simply haven’t won Super Bowls betond year five with the same team, same quarterback.

 

I have to credit @Chaos for giving us the data on this in one of his threads earlier in the off-season.

 

we all know there are a number of reasons why McDermott should likely stick around for years 6, 7 and even 8 with Allen regardless of any Super Bowl victory or not.

 

he’ll either go down as the one coach to break the historical trend that goes back to like the early 70s. Or he’ll go down as “exhibit A” in as to why the trend continues.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

The Dungey defense that held the Patriots to 13 points in the 2nd half, yes.  

that’s not good though. That’s like average. 

[Bobby Hooks]

1 hour ago, teef said:

i'm not greedy.  i'd be thrilled to see one.  

I’m super greedy, but I’ll still just take one. 
 

During the drought I kind’ve resigned myself to the fact that I’d never see a championship in my life time. Then Josh Allen came into our lives and completely ruined that for me. 
 

13 seconds hurt in a way that I didn’t think was possible as an adult. I can only imagine how a championship would feel. The again, the door is wide open for more wide rights, and 13 seconds’, so… idk, I’m equal parts hopeful and anxious. 
 

I guess It’s better than feeling nothing about it.