NFL draft rumors 2023

[mannc]

10 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Again…if Beane can trade up 2 spots in a deep draft for corners for the last guy with a first round grade, what precludes him for doing it for a receiver?

 

Beane certainly could trade down for one of those guys, but there are probably only five receivers who are worth a first round pick this year (if you include Kincaid) and there are way more than five teams that are looking to add receiving talent to their roster, so it won't be easy, sitting at 27, to get one of them.  This year there aren't a lot of great players at other positions to push them down to the bottom of the round.

[whorlnut]

17 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

I think I'm just looking forward to the inevitable meltdown some folks are gonna have no matter who the Bills draft. 

 

Just remember, this stuff is supposed to be fun. If the names they announce next weekend make you wanna throw things and punch holes in the wall then maybe take a minute to ponder if football is, I dunno, your thing? 

 

After that we'll round up the expert board analysis on Beane...who will surely have failed miserably at his job according to the message board savants of the world. 

 

Who's that one player you really hope they don't pick? I hope they pick that guy. 

Let me get this straight…one side of your mouth spouts off about not getting upset and enjoying the ride, so to speak. The other says that you hope people are upset and want chaos. Maybe football isn’t YOUR thing…

17 minutes ago, mannc said:

Beane certainly could trade down for one of those guys, but there are probably only five receivers who are worth a first round pick this year (if you include Kincaid) and there are way more than five teams that are looking to add receiving talent to their roster, so it won't be easy, sitting at 27, to get one of them.  This year there aren't a lot of great players at other positions to push them down to the bottom of the round.

What are you talking about?  I said trade UP, not DOWN. And you laid out the very reason why one would trade up. To make sure you get your guy. I’m really not sure what you are trying to say…

[mannc]

27 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Let me get this straight…one side of your mouth spouts off about not getting upset and enjoying the ride, so to speak. The other says that you hope people are upset and want chaos. Maybe football isn’t YOUR thing…

What are you talking about?  I said trade UP, not DOWN. And you laid out the very reason why one would trade up. To make sure you get your guy. I’m really not sure what you are trying to say…

Sorry, I meant to say trade up.

[Warriorspikes51]

 

 

[stinky finger]

16 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I think we try, but.......
 

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

Fun article if you liek comps: 

 

 

[glazeduck]

25 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Fun article if you liek comps: 

 

 

I always love comps but some of these are insultingly lazy...

[NewEra]

18 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

Yeah, I knew that he was picked before the Bill second round selection but we know Brandon Beane loves to trade up. It was only a few spots I kept yelling at my TV. Pickens is still on the board trade up but sadly the TV didn’t listen.

Same here.  Pickens then Moore then Pierce.  I was hoping for one of the 3.  Missed all of them 

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Same here.  Pickens then Moore then Pierce.  I was hoping for one of the 3.  Missed all of them 

Yep. Same. And what really irritates me above all else is those that suggest we “wait till the second round”. As if there are guarantees we will have anyone there that we value. The fact is…we are gonna be doing this same song and dance every year until they finally address WR. 

[Brand J]

No one’s concerned about Addison’s smallish hands?

[Warriorspikes51]

Joe B seems to think a Trade Up for a WR is likely

 

6) Who fits the profile this year?
 

Luckily for the Bills, that specific type of receiver makes up most of the top prospects. And in the first round, it boils down to four who should be a legitimate option at No. 27.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State – He mainly played slot receiver at Ohio State, but possesses the skills to move outside. He’s an outstanding, nuanced route runner with the shiftiness and agility to punish interior coverage defenders. At nearly 6-foot-1 and 196 pounds, the biggest of these four.

 

Zay Flowers, Boston College – Has experience playing both the perimeter and inside at slot, but at 5-foot-9, he’s the shortest prospect of these four. Flowers was an outstanding downfield target who’s a lot of fun to watch his speed of getting in and out of his breakdown. He is excellent at gaining yards after the catch, too.

 

Jordan Addison, USC – Addison mostly played the perimeter last year but mainly played as a slot receiver in 2021 at Pitt, so the versatility is there. He is right there with Smith-Njigba as a route runner and gains instant separation. Stylistically, Addison runs his routes similarly to Diggs. The troubling factor is that he weighed 173 pounds at his Pro Day.

 

Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee – The biggest projection of the four but with a legitimately high ceiling. Hyatt mostly played slot receiver and needs to develop his full route tree, but he comes from the same offense that yielded Davis, which could concern the Bills less than others. Like Addison, Hyatt is smaller at 176 pounds but has better deep-field speed.

If I had to rank them from a Bills’ perspective, I would probably put Smith-Njigba as the top prospect because he’d be an instant impact as their primary slot receiver. Flowers and Addison would rank 2A and 2B, as both could be excellent contributors in 2023. Either one would be worthy of a move up the board. Hyatt comes in fourth only because he’s more of a projection, though not far behind. But the Bills may have Hyatt a closer to the other two based on their comfortability with the college offense. If the Bills stayed at No. 27 and those first three are off the board, I would not be surprised if Hyatt is the selection.

 

7) What about TCU’s Quentin Johnston?

You may notice he’s missing among the above fits, but it’s because he doesn’t fit that versatile role we laid out as cleanly. Johnston isn’t as shifty as the others and, because of some tightness, doesn’t seem as suited to playing slot receiver as easily as the others. His best fit in the Bills’ offense likely would be in the Davis perimeter role, and the Bills may want to keep Davis for the long term. But if they were trying to find a replacement for Davis past 2023, Johnston would be in the equation.
 

😎 Why the Bills may need to get aggressive once the WR run starts

Even though the top receivers may lack a high-end prospect, that doesn’t reduce the receiver need of teams ahead of the Bills. Early in the pre-draft process, Smith-Njigba was going off the board as early as No. 11 to the Titans, but that has slowly been pushed down with some of the really plugged-in draft pundits. The thought-provoking Peter Schrager of NFL.com had Smith-Njigba off the board at No. 15. In his most recent mock, The Athletic draft expert Dane Brugler had Smith-Njigba being the first receiver selected at No. 20. The Bills will obviously be in a much better spot if the run starts at Brugler’s projection. But the one thing they have in common is picks 20 through 26 being a hot spot for receivers getting selected. So if the Bills want one, they might need to be proactive — and we all know Beane tends to get antsy in the first round.

 

11) So then what are the ideal trade-up spots that meet cost and logic?

This is a layered answer, because it all depends on who is available. If Smith-Njigba is still on the board at No. 20, that would be a potential spot to target because the Seahawks may want him, and the Ravens could be interested. Seattle has a long history of trading down on draft day, too.
 

The Chargers would be another spot to target either Smith-Njigba or the pick of the second-best wide receiver if the Chargers wanted a tight end above all else. They’d still stay ahead of the Bengals at No. 28, while the Jaguars and Cowboys aren’t as big of threats to take one. Plus, the depth of the tight end class could help. But the higher cost might be prohibitive if the Bills are moving up for the second-best receiver.

The Ravens likely aren’t moving off a pick for another team to take a receiver. The Vikings and Jaguars don’t seem immediate threats to take a receiver, but the Giants are, which makes the Jaguars at No. 24 potentially the ideal trade-up spot to target. It would cost the Bills to drop 30 picks from No. 91, but that’s an entirely doable cost to potentially secure the second or third-best receiver in this year’s class. But if they don’t want to chance it with the Jaguars, the Vikings have only five picks this year, and would likely be very, very willing trade participants, potentially with the Bills getting a better value on a trade than usual.

No. 23 or No. 24 looks like the sweet spot of any Bills draft day trade up.

[MrEpsYtown]

5 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

No one’s concerned about Addison’s smallish hands?

 

He isn't my favorite prospect, but I feel like he catches the ball so well it isn't a concern. I am more concerned about size/speed/explosiveness. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Fun article if you liek comps: 

 

 

 

 

I am not normally a big comps guy but there are a few in there that I have made at various points this draft season.

 

Bryce Young - Deshaun Watson (I made in my QB evals thread)

Peter Skoronski - Zack Martin

Jalin Hyatt - Desean Jackson

Will Levis - Carson Wentz 

[Roundybout]

Downs screams slot guy to me. 

 

[BillsSbSoon]

At the end of the day I don’t see beane trading up for a 5’9 wr. I get memories of tavon austin. There’s a few things you can narrow down with beane, he goes for prototypes in the first round and they are usually around 21 yrs old so pretty young. 

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

Downs screams slot guy to me. 

 

He hasn't met with any teams. No thanks on Downs 

[CapeBreton]

9 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

Downs screams slot guy to me. 

 

 

I had to look up Peter King to see who he is, he has 1.7M followers on Twitter lol, so maybe he has some sources.

 

4 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

He hasn't met with any teams. No thanks on Downs 

 

That is so strange, I wonder if he'd be available in round 3 though. I'd take him then.

[eball]

6 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

He hasn't met with any teams. No thanks on Downs 

 

Might I ask why not?

[MrEpsYtown]

Charlie Campbell updated his mock. I know I know...but he is a pretty accurate mocker. He has us going: 

 

1 - Torrence

2 - Gervon Dexter

3 - Zach Pickens

4- Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson

5- OT Ryan Hayes

6 - Ivan Pace Jr. 

 

So he has us doubling up on o-line and d-line which does make some sense. 

 

Walter has us taking: 

 

1 - Gibbs

2 - Musgrave

3 - Tippmann

4 - Pickens

5 - Jayden Reed

6 - Tank Dell

Edited April 24, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Charlie Campbell updated his mock. I know I know...but he is a pretty accurate mocker. He has us going: 

 

1 - Torrence

2 - Gervon Dexter

3 - Zach Pickens

4- Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson

5- OT Ryan Hayes

6 - Ivan Pace Jr. 

 

So he has us doubling up on o-line and d-line which does make some sense. 

 

Walter has us taking: 

 

1 - Gibbs

2 - Musgrave

3 - Tippmann

4 - Pickens

5 - Jayden Reed

6 - Tank Dell

 

I still don't think it will be Torrence. And I respect Charlie's mocks a lot. 

[CapeBreton]

 

I agree this class doesn't seem great, Beane also stated he doesn't have a lot of first round grades.

[MrEpsYtown]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I still don't think it will be Torrence. And I respect Charlie's mocks a lot. 

 

Same as last year, it seems that no one knows what we are doing, which is a good thing. Mocks are all over the place. 

[CNYfan]

 Nice cb and te choices though?

[glazeduck]

23 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

He hasn't met with any teams. No thanks on Downs 

This is a weird take... his dad is an assistant coach and his uncle is Dre Bly -- I can't say I know why he's not taking visits, but it's probable that teams have a pretty good idea of what he's about, how he handles his businsess, etc.

 

That said, he's not my favorite wr prospect (or 2nd, or 3rd, or 4th or 5th or 6th...)

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

This is a weird take... his dad is an assistant coach and his uncle is Dre Bly -- I can't say I know why he's not taking visits, but it's probable that teams have a pretty good idea of what he's about, how he handles his businsess, etc.

 

That said, he's not my favorite wr prospect (or 2nd, or 3rd, or 4th or 5th or 6th...)

 

He is my 5th. But he is 2nd round and he is strictly slot only. Hard pass at #27.

[Warriorspikes51]

7 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

 

I agree this class doesn't seem great, Beane also stated he doesn't have a lot of first round grades.

To me, it seems like there are a lot of players Rounds 2-4 that can be plug and play though 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

 

I agree this class doesn't seem great, Beane also stated he doesn't have a lot of first round grades.

 

11 now by my board.

[BADOLBILZ]

50 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

No one’s concerned about Addison’s smallish hands?

 

 

I'm more concerned about them drafting a WR in round 1 who doesn't have outside versatility.........like Downs.

 

A slot-only is a bad use of a chip that should be invested in a player with a $20M-$30M aav ceiling.

 

Addison is fringy there as well but at least there is a chance he can be a WR1 and starter both inside and out............I just don't see it with Downs..........and I follow UNC closely.

 

But rest assured........if they draft a slot-only we will have a bunch of apologists jumping into insist that they can play anywhere to try to shout down any criticism of the pick. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm more concerned about them drafting a WR in round 1 who doesn't have outside versatility.........like Downs.

 

A slot-only is a bad use of a chip that should be invested in a player with a $20M-$30M aav ceiling.

 

Addison is fringy there as well but at least there is a chance he can be a WR1 and starter both inside and out............I just don't see it with Downs..........and I follow UNC closely.

 

But rest assured........if they draft a slot-only we will have a bunch of apologists jumping into insist that they can play anywhere to try to shout down any criticism of the pick. 

 

Is Peter King ever right about anything Bills related?

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

11 now by my board.

Since you've been doing this, has there been a draft this shallow with regards to first rounders?

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Is Peter King ever right about anything Bills related?

 

He used to be as connected as anyone.........so his opinion still carries some weight.

[CaptnCoke11]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Since you've been doing this, has there been a draft this shallow with regards to first rounders?

You actually believe someone on here is a respectable evaluator of college prospects?  lol we all do the same thing, watch YouTube highlights and steal other people’s rankings 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

You actually believe someone on here is a respectable evaluator of college prospects?  lol we all do the same thing, watch YouTube highlights and steal other people’s rankings 

I think he's insightful, that's why I asked.

[muppy]

well it is NFL draft week so I will be very vested as a Bills fanatic to see how it all plays out.

 

I LOVE the NFL draft. It is considered holiday in my home and the family recognizes it as such.

 

I am not to be bothered by mundane chores like eating and sleeping  and especially Not cooking and cleaning while it is occurring

 

KITCHEN PASS for muppy. I cannot wait!

 

If I had my druthers the Bills draft a studly TE to bookend with my boy dawson Knox. Either that or a beefy MEAN O Lineman.

 

They'll likely go LB or RB?

 

GO BILLS!~!~!!!

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

You actually believe someone on here is a respectable evaluator of college prospects?  lol we all do the same thing, watch YouTube highlights and steal other people’s rankings 

Ah yes, you've made my Big Board of another certain list....

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Since you've been doing this, has there been a draft this shallow with regards to first rounders?

 

No. My previous low was 16 in 2015.

4 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

You actually believe someone on here is a respectable evaluator of college prospects?  lol we all do the same thing, watch YouTube highlights and steal other people’s rankings 

 

That is not what I do. Like I don't claim to be Brandon Beane but that is not how I go about it.

[CaptnCoke11]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No. My previous low was 16 in 2015.

 

That is not what I do. Like I don't claim to be Brandon Beane but that is not how I go about it.

Well unless you actually go scout these players and watch countless game film then yes that’s what you do 

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

You actually believe someone on here is a respectable evaluator of college prospects?  lol we all do the same thing, watch YouTube highlights and steal other people’s rankings 

 

I'm a former recruiting assistant at a Division 1 school, former Head Coach of HS ball for 8 years, worked 3 years as a recruiting coordinator and college coach at a couple Division 3 schools and I know a handful of NFL scouts, Division 1-3 Head Coaches throughout the country. I don't know everything but i've evaluated college kids for about 7 years in college including the highest athletes in the country for 3 1/2 years. 

 

I have resources I can ask guys about. Am I wrong a lot still. Yup I am but I have a much broader insight to the inner workings than Joe Fan who watched Youtube clips just on knowledge of what teams actually look for. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Well unless you actually go scout these players and watch countless game film then yes that’s what you do 

 

I watch lots of game film. Nobody gets a grade on my board without seeing 3 full games of them (every snap, not just highlights) and there are players in this class that I have watched 6,7,8 full games of. 

 

EDIT: and while I have never done it as a job (it is strictly a hobby for me), I know a former NFL position coach pretty well, and I have a couple of former scouts, one current scout, and one well recognised talking head whose latest mock may or not be discussed on the front page of this forum who I can reach out to and know well enough that they will reply to me and I can discuss guys with.

Edited April 24, 2023 by GunnerBill

[mannc]

35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

11 now by my board.

And how many first round grades did you have in a strong draft year, like 2020?  I'm sorry...I have a lot of respect for your opinion, but when I hear guys say there are 11 or 12 prospects with first round grades, my immediate thought is that they need to adjust their grading system, especially if they have less than 25 first round grades even in a strong year...it becomes meaningless.    

Edited April 24, 2023 by mannc