Mike Clay's roster talent evaluation all 32 teams ranked

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Yeah, that's my suspicion. Just assigning a number based on his own opinions. So this is just worthless, if that's the case. Might as well be ranked by gold stars.

 

People try to turn their opinions into "data" by just assigning numbers.

 

Yep, that's my sense.

 

40 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

He’s paid for his expertise on football.

 

Using his judgement he set 4 as the best score and rated accordingly.

 

There is nothing new to see here. The Bills lean on Josh Allen to prop up relatively weak skill position talent. 

 

In other words, it's his subjective opinion that he's trying to quantify numerically, to make it appear empirical and data-driven.

 

11 or so years ago, our family was trying to make a decision on where to send our child to middle and high school.   I had us each write down our "gut impressions" of the schools and rank them in order best match to least match, entirely based on our subjective opinion.

 

This wasn't good enough for my spouse, a multi-degreed engineer.  Spouse came up with 6 categories on which we were each independently to rank each school numerically from 1 to 5, then sum the scores to produce an "objective, empirical" ranking.  I did my honest best.

 

Wanna hear the spoiler?  The numerical rankings we each came up with differed - but exactly matched our individual subjective ranks.  Huh.

 

I'm not trying to diss Mike Clay on his subjective opinion.  The opinion of a knowledgeable person is always worth hearing.  I just don't care for the modern trend for trying to add gravitas to opinions by digitizing them.

 

 

Edited March 24, 2023 by Beck Water

[PrimeTime101]

5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He uses a weighted average of the position rankings. If you apply the weights at the top of the chart to each position, the Eagles weighted average is 2.9 and the offense and defense grades (factoring in their proportion of the total grade) is a 2.0 and 0.9 respectively. I was able to easily recreate all of his offense/defense/total grades in a couple minutes in Excel.

even if you use Weighted Averages, the numbers still do not add up. they dont

[DCOrange]

Just now, PrimeTime101 said:

even if you use Weighted Averages, the numbers still do not add up. they dont

They do though; I literally recreated it myself.

 

Offense/Defense/Total:

• Eagles - 2.028 / 0.8925 / 2.9205
• Cowboys - 1.790 / 1.088 / 2.878
• Bills - 1.526 / 1.3035 / 2.8295
• Packers - 0.771 / 1.0725 / 1.8435

I can pull any other team you want but it all adds up. Not sure how familiar you are with Excel but it's very easy to set up.

[SoCal Deek]

Based on these rankings it looks like the Bills better be drafting OFFENSE in all seven rounds! 

[whorlnut]

7 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

They do though; I literally recreated it myself.

 

Offense/Defense/Total:

• Eagles - 2.028 / 0.8925 / 2.9205
• Cowboys - 1.790 / 1.088 / 2.878
• Bills - 1.526 / 1.3035 / 2.8295
• Packers - 0.771 / 1.0725 / 1.8435

I can pull any other team you want but it all adds up. Not sure how familiar you are with Excel but it's very easy to set up.

People don’t want to believe stats or metrics when they don’t align with their opinions or personal beliefs. 

[PrimeTime101]

9 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

They do though; I literally recreated it myself.

 

Offense/Defense/Total:

• Eagles - 2.028 / 0.8925 / 2.9205
• Cowboys - 1.790 / 1.088 / 2.878
• Bills - 1.526 / 1.3035 / 2.8295
• Packers - 0.771 / 1.0725 / 1.8435

I can pull any other team you want but it all adds up. Not sure how familiar you are with Excel but it's very easy to set up.

I am an open minded person that is beginning to get it. . My biggest issue is the Offensive positional ranking between Dallas and Cincinati where Cinci has much poorer numbers on offense compared to Dallas, yet they both have 1.8 ranks. can you explain that to me and maybe I will grasp it better. That being said I still believe some of these ranks on these teams are still broken. 

 

Help the old man out will ya? LOL 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

51 minutes ago, MJS said:

I didn't ask about his merit as an individual, I asked how he determined the numbers for each position.

 

Being an "expert" does not replace sound methodology.

Well you asked how he determined the numbers and that's how he did it. 

 

He wrote numbers down. 

 

The results aren't shocking. 

 

The Playoff teams from last year rank really high.

 

The teams we all perceive as bad are really low. 

 

 

[Charles Romes]

It looks like he cheated by looking at the final standing and then tweaking the data so the rankings would match the standings as well as popular opinion. 

Edited March 24, 2023 by Charles Romes

[Buffalo_Stampede]

33 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He does statistical projections as well but I don't believe those have been released yet.

I’m saying I think his rankings are based on last years performance. He doesn’t use projections in these rankings.

Edited March 24, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[SoCal Deek]

The most interesting Bills ranking has to be at WR and TE. Josh continues to pile up stats but apparently he’s throwing the ball to nobody. 

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

It looks like he cheated by looking at the final standing and then tweaking the data so the rankings would match the standings as well as popular opinion. 

 

4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m saying I think his rankings are based on last years performance. He doesn’t use projections in these rankings.

 

But the assertion is, he's basing the rankings upon the current roster at this point in FA and prior to the draft, correct?  (I'm not disagreeing with you, just clarifying my own understanding of what the rankings are supposed to represent)

 

 

[whorlnut]

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The most interesting Bills ranking has to be at WR and TE. Josh continues to pile up stats but apparently he’s throwing the ball to nobody. 

Not true. He’s got Diggs. The WR ranking illustrates exactly how bad the complimentary pieces are though. 

[blacklabel]

Oh yeah? Well on my scale, the patented Ween-o-Matic 5200 (upgrade over the 4900 model) it says that the Bills have a score of 646.29 wieners. This makes them the greatest roster in the league and it makes the guy who wrote the first scale a big ol' dumb dumb. 

[DCOrange]

18 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I am an open minded person that is beginning to get it. . My biggest issue is the Offensive positional ranking between Dallas and Cincinati where Cinci has much poorer numbers on offense compared to Dallas, yet they both have 1.8 ranks. can you explain that to me and maybe I will grasp it better. That being said I still believe some of these ranks on these teams are still broken. 

 

Help the old man out will ya? LOL 

Nearly half the offense grade is determined by the QB where the Bengals are significantly higher than Dallas. It really just boils down to that.

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

Probably disagree on the WRs.  

 

Take the bills and broncos.

 

Bills are 1.6 and broncos are 2.6.  When does "where you were drafted" go out?  Jeudy is a 1st rounder, but i don't put him much ahead of Davis at all.  Diggs is head and shoulders above sutton.  Patrick is coming off an ACL, and Hamler is going to miss camp.  How are they better than sherfield, harty, and shakir?  

 

Bills and Browns 1.6 to 1.5.  Diggs is better than cooper.  Davis is better than peoples jones.  They just added elijah moore i guess?  I dunno, just feels like they don't weight diggs enough in these rankings. 

Ya our WR ranking is way too low . We got a top 5 WR and some legit weapons.

How are the Jests almost a point higher? Makes no sense

[Straight Hucklebuck]

24 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yep, that's my sense.

 

 

In other words, it's his subjective opinion that he's trying to quantify numerically, to make it appear empirical and data-driven.

 

11 or so years ago, our family was trying to make a decision on where to send our child to middle and high school.   I had us each write down our "gut impressions" of the schools and rank them in order best match to least match, entirely based on our subjective opinion.

 

This wasn't good enough for my spouse, a multi-degreed engineer.  Spouse came up with 6 categories on which we were each independently to rank each school numerically from 1 to 5, then sum the scores to produce an "objective, empirical" ranking.  I did my honest best.

 

Wanna hear the spoiler?  The numerical rankings we each came up with differed - but exactly matched our individual subjective ranks.  Huh.

 

I'm not trying to diss Mike Clay on his subjective opinion.  The opinion of a knowledgeable person is always worth hearing.  I just don't care for the modern trend for trying to add gravitas to opinions by digitizing them.

 

 

It's Friday a month before the Draft starts. 

 

The first wave of FA is over. 

 

I don't think there is any agenda brewing here. 

 

The media still loves Rodgers and his MVPs carry a lot of weight with the media. 

 

But overall, I don't see the problem here. 

 

The Bills are right where they should be. Their skill personnel are weak compared to the better teams in this league. They have one real weapon - Diggs. Otherwise there are no proven high-end talents. 

 

And if anything, given no Edmunds, their linebacker score is generous propped up by Milano. 

[MJS]

24 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Well you asked how he determined the numbers and that's how he did it. 

 

He wrote numbers down. 

 

The results aren't shocking. 

 

The Playoff teams from last year rank really high.

 

The teams we all perceive as bad are really low. 

Sounds like you are just guessing. Do you actually know that he just wrote numbers down and that he didn't attempt any other analysis for that?

[GoBills808]

Nobody had more all pros last year than San Francisco 

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

It's Friday a month before the Draft starts. 

 

The first wave of FA is over. 

 

I don't think there is any agenda brewing here. 

 

The media still loves Rodgers and his MVPs carry a lot of weight with the media. 

 

But overall, I don't see the problem here. 

 

The Bills are right where they should be. Their skill personnel are weak compared to the better teams in this league. They have one real weapon - Diggs. Otherwise there are no proven high-end talents. 

 

And if anything, given no Edmunds, their linebacker score is generous propped up by Milano. 

 

I'm not saying there's an agenda, or a problem.  To the contrary - I'm pointing out that expert opinion is usually worthy of respect.

 

I am pointing out that digitizing a subjective opinion doesn't make it empirical

[ColoradoBills]

I've always put little stock in all these types of rankings.  

They're just a form of a recency bias, popularity contest more often than not.

 

I'd like to know where last year's LA Rams were ranked.

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

This is a noble attempt to try to quantify the strength of NFL rosters but it is so hard to do.  First off, certain positions are equal and some should be greatly weighted - ie QB.  So you can’t take much away from the overall team scores.  

 

 

Come on---Jets QB is 3.4 out of 4??  lol Who?

[ngbills]

9 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Ya our WR ranking is way too low . We got a top 5 WR and some legit weapons.

How are the Jests almost a point higher? Makes no sense

We have Diggs and guys that anyone outside of Buffalo fans would call avg players. Davis is our #2 and is 4th round pick. Shakir is #3 and is a 5th round pick that has done nothing. Sherfield and Harty are 4&5 and are both take-a-flyer type players. 

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Ya our WR ranking is way too low . We got a top 5 WR and some legit weapons.

How are the Jests almost a point higher? Makes no sense

 

Just guessing, but I'm thinking that maybe he doesn't rate Davis that highly and that Harty (who missed a lot of games last season with a foot injury) and Sherfield (who had 1 good season playing behind two top receivers in the league, Hill and Waddle) aren't considered legit as weapons.

 

I'm not saying they can't be or don't have the potential to be, but I think one would have to say they would be assessed as "not proven"

[ngbills]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Come on---Jets QB is 3.4 out of 4??  lol Who?

Seriously. I think its some random guy named Aaron Rodgers? Who is that? He has done nothing to deserve more than a 1.0...

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Come on---Jets QB is 3.4 out of 4??  lol Who?

 

How to tell us you didn't read the OP without telling us you didn't read the OP:

 

"Each of the 10 units are ranked 1-32 based on current rosters (assuming Rodgers on NYJ for now) and weighted based on positional importance"

[ngbills]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

Just guessing, but I'm thinking that maybe he doesn't rate Davis that highly and that Harty (who missed a lot of games last season with a foot injury) and Sherfield (who had 1 good season playing behind two top receivers in the league, Hill and Waddle) aren't considered legit as weapons.

 

I'm not saying they can't be or don't have the potential to be, but I think one would have to say they would be assessed as "not proven"

This. Davis has a better year and the bet on Harty and Sherfield works and we are one of the higher-ranked units. But cant base it on hopes and dreams. It is the reality of what these guys are doing right now. And outside of Diggs it is not much. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not saying there's an agenda, or a problem.  To the contrary - I'm pointing out that expert opinion is usually worthy of respect.

 

I am pointing out that digitizing a subjective opinion doesn't make it empirical

Thank you, there is no one fixed stat that will prove how good a player ultimately is or will be. 

 

Everything is always changing. 

[JerseyBills]

17 minutes ago, ngbills said:

We have Diggs and guys that anyone outside of Buffalo fans would call avg players. Davis is our #2 and is 4th round pick. Shakir is #3 and is a 5th round pick that has done nothing. Sherfield and Harty are 4&5 and are both take-a-flyer type players. 

Davis would likely get a similar contribution to Juju and Jakobi Myers. 3/33 , so technically he's considered a legit WR2 outside of this board

[BBFL]

5 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Davis would likely get a similar contribution to Juju and Jakobi Myers. 3/33 , so technically he's considered a legit WR2 outside of this board

Just a sour taste because of the 13secs performance not translating to the expectation for the whole of last season. 
Potential is there to grow into that #2 but shouldn’t be dismissed as he’s definitely a productive target even including his drops and blunders. 
 

Nothing wrong with him as the #3 or #4 on the chart. 

Edited March 24, 2023 by BBFL

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Davis would likely get a similar contribution to Juju and Jakobi Myers. 3/33 , so technically he's considered a legit WR2 outside of this board

Is he tho

 

I can think of a lot of guys I would rather have than Davis rn

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

36 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Ya our WR ranking is way too low . We got a top 5 WR and some legit weapons.

How are the Jests almost a point higher? Makes no sense

 

Garret wilson loses to Diggs

Lazard and Davis are a wash

 

Then you have Corey Davis, Mims, and Hardman vs.  Harty, Sherfield, Shakir.  

 

Davis has had good seasons but is basically a 500 yard WR at this point, Mims is trash (sub 50% catch rate over 3 years and 30 games), and hardman.

 

Harty has 1 year of production, sherfield is a fringe special teams guy, and shakir was a rookie.  So we'll give the jets the depth edge.  

 

But i still don't see how you have them above Buffalo, let alone an entire point. 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

57 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Not true. He’s got Diggs. The WR ranking illustrates exactly how bad the complimentary pieces are though. 

So without Diggs we’d be at ZERO? Come on! Allen is only throwing the ball. He isn’t catching it too. I realize these rankings are subjective but I agree with another poster, these rankings appear to be an opinion in search of a statistic. 

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

He does have tiers in his rankings, QB's, for example, there are none ranked at 3.7 and 3.2 so those are basically tiers. He has Mahomes, Allen and Burrow in the same tier which makes sense IMO. He also has them ranked in that order within the tier which also seems to make sense. The next tier is from 3.6 to 3.3 and is made up of Hurts, Herbert, Rodgers and Lamar in that descending order. The next tier starts at 3.1 with Dak followed by Lawernce, Murray and Watson with a break at 2.7

Gotcha. I didn't see that!

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

Nearly half the offense grade is determined by the QB where the Bengals are significantly higher than Dallas. It really just boils down to that.

No I am going to stop you RIGHT THERE!!! LOL!  I asked you to qualify the Bengals offense positional Value to the Cowboys position of value both being 1.8 offense. The fact is you cant qualify it.. period..

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

Seriously. I think its some random guy named Aaron Rodgers? Who is that? He has done nothing to deserve more than a 1.0...

 

59 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

How to tell us you didn't read the OP without telling us you didn't read the OP:

 

"Each of the 10 units are ranked 1-32 based on current rosters (assuming Rodgers on NYJ for now) and weighted based on positional importance"

 

Missed that.  So it's an imaginary number.  Why not pump up the Jets WR score with a little OBJ??

Edited March 24, 2023 by Mr. WEO

[PrimeTime101]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Missed that.  So it's an imaginary number.  Why not pump up the Jets WR score with a little OBJ??

there is all kinds of broken numbers on here

[Straight Hucklebuck]

20 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

So without Diggs we’d be at ZERO? Come on! Allen is only throwing the ball. He isn’t catching it too. I realize these rankings are subjective but I agree with another poster, these rankings appear to be an opinion in search of a statistic. 

What are we arguing about here? 

 

What singular player rating applies to every player on a team? 

 

Of course people are looking at the numbers, watching the plays, and putting a grade on it.  

 

The Bills media are trumpeting average yards per route for Harty in 2021 as evidence that he can be a breakout player, the Bills thought Tim Settle on a larger snap percentage could extrapolate into more production, can we quantify how much Poyer lost with all the injuries? 

 

No, it's all parts of a picture. 

 

I have no problem with the premise, the approach, the execution or results of what Clay did here. It's not something you print out and laminate and have in your hands as you watch on Sundays, but just like grades handed out after the draft, it's a projection based on everything shown/known so far. 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

10 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

What are we arguing about here? 

 

What singular player rating applies to every player on a team? 

 

Of course people are looking at the numbers, watching the plays, and putting a grade on it.  

 

The Bills media are trumpeting average yards per route for Harty in 2021 as evidence that he can be a breakout player, the Bills thought Tim Settle on a larger snap percentage could extrapolate into more production, can we quantify how much Poyer lost with all the injuries? 

 

No, it's all parts of a picture. 

 

I have no problem with the premise, the approach, the execution or results of what Clay did here. It's not something you print out and laminate and have in your hands as you watch on Sundays, but just like grades handed out after the draft, it's a projection based on everything shown/known so far. 

 

 

Arguing? Okay I guess. 

[DCOrange]

52 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

No I am going to stop you RIGHT THERE!!! LOL!  I asked you to qualify the Bengals offense positional Value to the Cowboys position of value both being 1.8 offense. The fact is you cant qualify it.. period..

Are you asking about how the math actually works or about why Burrow is a 3.8 vs. Dak being a 3.1 and stuff like that?

[Goin Breakdown]

This guys has too much time in his hands. He must not be following the  Drop thread.