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Singletary—inarguably above average statistically: discuss


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12 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

      Stats mean little as they dont reflect play at critical times, drops that kill drives, big runs in a game or two that boost the stats, fumbles that are recovered Burt still halted a drive, how is your performance around the goal line, how dependable are you in short yardage , do you have enough burst to break off long runs, can you add more to the passing game like being more than a receiver in the flats, can you run a circle route and create mismatches , are you consistent from game to game, can you be depended on to actually score tds , can you break tackles after first contact.  Just throwing up a ypc number adds almost no insight compared to watching an entire season of plays. Plus comparing him to a much older rib in gore who was at the very end of his career is ridiculous.  Can you be depended on to convert third down runs so Allen doesn’t have to be the leading rusher as a franchise qb?  Again, do you do all that weekly , consistently, or is your performance spotty or hot and cold.  Very little of that is answered by ypc.  

 

     I know its terrible and blasphemy to be constructively critical of a bills player on this site and it leads to personal attacks because its a simple, lazy way to just try to negate an argument 0r discredit a poster.  Not in any way saying you do that at all or ever , but i can give examples of people who will attack ones opinion, as if their view is more valid or carries more weight , even tho its just another  opinion or their INTERPRETATION of stats or games.   Somehow,  lost in their narcissism,  they are obviously correct and so rather than just move on, they feel obligated to be dismissive or qualify their attacks with blatant bs like ‘ no disrespect, but”,  rather than just moving on which is simple and is actually respectful.   If you dont think its an issue , look up the dark triad or tetrad now as described by Jordan Peterson , who is a brilliant psychologist , author , speaker and the dark tetrad relates to anonymous keyboard warriors so prevalent now who have to be dismissive or machiavellian in their unrequested responses. 

 

      I appreciate your opinion and work in your post.  It is certainly one type of valued option or thought. . As a bills and NFL fan since ‘63 , having grown up watching two hof bills backs in OJ and THURMAN, in my opinion devin is a very avg and somewhat limited RB. He is not a good pass catcher or running screens. . There have been quite a few drive killing drops in his career. He can at times be a good runner but imo, compared to very good backs, he has games where he goes down with light contact , and he still is a fumble risk despite us recovering some of them.   He is very avg  IMO with the eye test compared to hard runners like we have seen in kc, Cincy, and the jets prior to the injury, and in CONTRAST,   in a passing offense like the k gun was , Thurman was excellent as a receiver and lead the league in total yards from scrimmage for 3 years in a row. Devin is just not a complete threat in that sane way.

       That’s just my opinion having watched each for at least 4 years.  So while his ypc is above avg, i still see him as a very avg back. The key question is could we do better or should we settle for this known situation “ at the right price” , whatever that means.   Just like my opinion i posted about letting edmunds go as i feel we can at least match his production , but expect to even be better as the BILLS apparently agreed, , i feel its a mistake to bring Devin  back only  because we wouldn’t have to spend much on him,   Let’s see how the bills decide; there is no right answer as it depends on the eye of the beholder.   I hope they move on , try to find those traits I mentioned esp as there is no shortage of available backs. We know what he does, and this O has not been described by  any analysts as being a good running team , in fact they say the opposite and need to find a back to take the leading rusher role away from josh. 

 

It’s just an opinion , not looking to get in any debate as i formed my opinion after watching every game he played. People got mad when i opined i believe the fins, jets may overtake the bills this year depending on the off-season and draft and Dorsey’s development. It was happening last year. Split games with fins/jets/ almost blew the playoff game to fins with a 3rd string qb. They are making impressive moves so far.  Cincy and kc are currently better than us until mcd proves he can beat them in the playoffs. We struggled in bad weather as it affects our pass dominant game and josh didn’t play great in games like the Cincy game , so developing an effective run game to augment the offense , allow josh to perhaps not make as many mental errors ( all the red zone ints were a problem and in lower possession games , it can be a big issue.) and perhaps we can advance in the high pressure playoff games.  There is no time to learn from losing in the playoffs , correct?

 

     Sorry but you dont see mahomes make as many mental errors, as he has a running game and receivers who make plays for him. Hey , fact is he has lead his team to 2 sb victories, while we played in one afc championship game, and lost 2 divisional games with a supposed strong roster.    Despite the easily visible trend of the offense struggling the later part of the season , i was told trends mean nothing from week to week and constantly heard we were guaranteed to win the SB. Those are facts that can be proven by looking at last years posts ,,,,it was a guaranteed win and if anyone felt differently, they were attacked and they were told they were not good fans and worse.  It is analogous to bringing up data about a certain disease or ‘prevention’ , mob mentality wouldn’t  allow even simple discussion and time has not been kind to that thinking.  Well, easy to see trends did matter and we have catching up to do if we are to be a real SB contender.

 

     Again, just an opinion, there is no absolute right or wrong. WITH that premise , I would look for a better back than devin despite your well written post; If we dont run more efficiently and diversify the offense  , Dorsey’s true test, i dont think we will win a SB ,  not until we can consistently convert short yardage runs , and have a back as the leading rusher , not josh.    Should be interesting to see beanes actions and if it works. I appreciate your points on Devin, i just believe we can do better regardless of how cheap he may sign for , and if he returns , i expect approximately the same production. Not bad, but bot great and who knows, maybe the grass is greener as we have no SB wins/ appearances and I thought that was the goal and why McD  was hired.  Best wishes! 😊👍 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

Any team sign Singletary yet? 

 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/running-back/all/

 

RB market is bottoming out. Top of the FA market is $6.25M AAV (not including Saquon Barkley’s FT). Third highest AAV is $4M. Many RBs making big money are being shopped or cut. It’s already a buyer’s market so players like Singletary will be signing cheaply or not at all. 

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Even if Singletary wants to come back on the minimum deal, his skill set is not what we need.  
 

Power. Back.  
 

Someone to take short yardage from Josh Allen. 
 

That’s not Singletary. 

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I'd be willing to sign Motor to a minimal deal as a hedge against not finding a better back.  He's got some moderate skills and he's a great teammate.  And, at the moment, he's best RB we have.

 

Ideally, though, I'd love to have more speed in the RB position.  Then again, a power back would be a great compliment to Josh.  It's hard to shut down a power back and a strong armed QB both at the same time.  

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47 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/running-back/all/

 

RB market is bottoming out. Top of the FA market is $6.25M AAV (not including Saquon Barkley’s FT). Third highest AAV is $4M. Many RBs making big money are being shopped or cut. It’s already a buyer’s market so players like Singletary will be signing cheaply or not at all. 

Love it go get Harris on the cheap and see if you can get one healthy season out of him.  He can do it all when healthy 

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57 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Even if Singletary wants to come back on the minimum deal, his skill set is not what we need.  
 

Power. Back.  
 

Someone to take short yardage from Josh Allen. 
 

That’s not Singletary. 

I agree that we could use a back with some power, but that back also needs to fit with our scheme. We don’t have bullies on the OL to run power football. We need runners who can hit the holes wherever they open up. 

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Why is the OP using 2019 stats as a point of comparison to an aged Frank Gore with a different team, different, O-line, and different Josh Allen?

If you want a more accurate apples-to-apples comp, use 2022 and Cooks stats vs. Singletary's as a point of comparison and to have "inarguable" statistical comparisons.

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7 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Why is the OP using 2019 stats as a point of comparison to an aged Frank Gore with a different team, different, O-line, and different Josh Allen?

If you want a more accurate apples-to-apples comp, use 2022 and Cooks stats vs. Singletary's as a point of comparison and to have "inarguable" statistical comparisons.

Also you must watch games or at least try to remember the situations in wich both run the ball, Cook never get a short down try, and after Moss trade that was a Singletary role and  why his average per carry is lower than Cook's 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Even if Singletary wants to come back on the minimum deal, his skill set is not what we need.  
 

Power. Back.  
 

Someone to take short yardage from Josh Allen. 
 

That’s not Singletary. 

 

I'm certainly not going to say that Singletary is a power back.  He's a smaller guy and definitely not a classic power back.  The Bills have been terrible on 3rd and 4th and less than 2 in recent years.  I would lose my lunch if I had to watch Moss slam into the line for no gain again.  That said, and I'm not quoting statistics here, but for those of you who watched every snap of every game like I did last season, did you not notice that Singletary was highly successful on 3rd and 4th and short last year?  He converted a ton of them.  I can't recall whether this occurred more after Moss was traded, but the results were a significant improvement over what we've seen the last couple of seasons.  I have not seen it noted here on this board (which actually surprises me), but I also have not read this entire thread.  Am I the only one to notice this?

 

On a related note, if the Bills can re-sign Singletary on a cheap deal, and focus on improving the line, I can live with that.  If the Robinson kid from Texas falls in the draft, and you can get a really talented back on a rookie contract, I could live with that too, but I don't foresee him falling to the Bills.  I could also live with a mid-round or late-round RB pick.  The issue, to me, is the line, and not the RBs.

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Two, IFs.  If Singletary is willing to sign for a cap friendly deal, and IF he is willing and able to play Special Teams, he can take Taiwan Jones roster spot (whom the Bills have not resigned yet.)  Then Beane can draft a bruiser in the later rounds.

 

All good comments and valid points on resigning, not resigning Singletary.  Personally, I like him and think he is a very capable back.  Runs hard, good hands, blocks well, doesn't fumble much (13, lost 5, out of 817 touches) and a smart player.  He has been a great team player.

 

 

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16 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

 

That is certainly one, single stat to focus on.

 

Comparing him to a worn down Zeke Elliot...

 

Zeke: 6' 225lbs, Singletary 5'7" 205lbs, and the difference in strength shows at the goal line.

Zeke in 2022: 12 TDs, Singletary 5 TDs

Zeke in 2022: 0 Fumbles and 0 Lost, Singletary: 3 Fumbles, 3 Lost

Zeke: 52 First Downs, Singletary: 42 First Downs

 

I think one of these guys is the better compliment to Cook.

 

And this isnt trying to knock, or disparage Singletary. We could definitely do worse than bringing him back this year, and I'd welcome it. Just saying...

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16 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

Well I’m convinced. Devin Singletary is better than Frank Gore.

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I love his effort - but the big problem is that we have 3 of the same kind of back.

 

We do need a "big" back, someone for short yardage & the goal-line.  Cook & Hines are great for the rest.  Singletary is just the odd man out at this point.

 

They could bring him back and hope that bolstering the line will elevate all 3. But I'd rather have someone who can take the short yardage stuff that JA does for the most part.

 

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