Singletary—inarguably above average statistically: discuss

[SoCal Deek]

It’s pretty simple really. If Singletary was that coveted he’d be gone already. He’s still in his prime, although definitely in the later half of his expected NFL lifespan. As to his role with the Bills, I think they’re assuming they’ll simply swap Cook and Motor in 2023 with Cook becoming the starter and Motor getting second tier reps…and maybe that’s not all bad. Devin has proven to be pretty darn consistent as the stats would show. You can do much worse! 

[oldmanfan]

Improve the line and bring Motor back.  He fights for the tough yards.  He blocks well in protection.  He's a good balance to Cook.  

[Niagara Dude]

45 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Oh, and Allen is running so much and taking so many hits for several reasons, one of which is that a QB run gives you a one-man advantage, which an RB run does not. It's easier. That's surely a great deal of the reason they call lots of QB runs despite having RBs who are often successful when they run.

 

Not to mention that many of his runs come from scrambles that turn into runs.

 

And Singletary does indeed rely on quickness and making guys miss. That's why he is consistently in the top four in the NFL of forcing missed tackles.

 

 

2021 7th at missed tackles per attempt %age

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-most-elusive-running-backs-2021-season

 

 

2022 5th at missed tackles per attempt %age

https://www.rotoballer.com/fantasy-football-running-back-sleepers-missed-tackles-2022/995606#Missed_Tackles_Forced_Data    (see graph)

 

 

2019 2nd at missed tackles per attempt %age

"[Singletary] forced 0.25 missed tackles per attempt, second-best in the league. "

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-backfield-rankings-all-32-running-back-units-entering-the-2020-nfl-season

 

 

2022 6th at broken+missed tackles forced %age

https://www.fantasypros.com/2022/07/rb-broken-plus-missed-tackles-forced-percentage-analysis-2022-fantasy-football-javonte-williams-elijah-mitchell-ezekiel-elliott/

 

 

Your idea that he can't force missed tackles, that, "that is not going to happen against most NFL defensive players" is just plain wrong.

 

There is a reason we do not hear about any teams interested in signing him,  he an average back and we have had a non existent running game for the past 3-4 years because of it.

[ngbills]

Numbers can be different than impact on the game. 

[Billz4ever]

11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I'd be shocked at this point if Singletary doesn't come back on a team friendly deal. RB's aren't banking their estimated values to begin with and he's running out of options with the amount of them that have been signed already.

 

Whether simply running back what we had last season is the right move or not is debatable. But I think the writing is on the wall that that's what we're going to do.

As it's been said, the Bills need a bigger back.  We need someone to contrast Cook, who can pound the rock, and can get those tough short yards. We don't need both Singletary and Cook. 

 

Foreman was the idea guy to fill that role and would've come cheap.  I can't believe Beane wasn't all over that.

[Thurman#1]

11 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

He should get eventually signed and most likely back with the Bills but seeing all the movements at RB it tells me he’s not highly thought of as a running back in the NFL. I posted a thread on him not being a starter next yr and it looks like I’m going to be right. 

 

 

If it tells you that, that's because you're making invalid conclusions from insufficient data.

 

All it can legitimately tell you right now is that he's not signed yet. What that means will need a lot more time and data to figure out.

 

 

 

 

Oh, and as for various things people have said in this thread about how much the OL is responsible for our run problems, there's two stats to look at that address that.

 

Football Outsiders has two stats called Adjusted Line Yards and RB yards.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/help/article/adjusted-line-yards

 

There's a comprehensive explanation at that link, but basically they statistically separate yards the line is responsible for from the yards the RB is responsible for. Doing so perfectly is not possible, of course. But their methodology makes a ton of sense and generally does put fit the eye test as well as any stat ever does. 

 

Generally, if the RB yards are not much higher than the Adj. Line Yards, the blocking is responsible for more of that team's productivity in the run game than the RBs are.

 

So, if you subtract Adj. Line Yards from RB yards, the higher the quotient, the more the RBs rather than the OL is responsible for any success. Again, doesn't mean the running attack is good. Just that the RB is more responsible for any success than the OL.

 

The Bills quotient was 6th highest in the league last year. It was more about the RBs than the OL in Buffalo in terms of who was more responsible for the yards they actually got.

 

 

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Improve the line and bring Motor back.  He fights for the tough yards.  He blocks well in protection.  He's a good balance to Cook.  

The guy works extremely hard...but he is not a threat whatsoever. Opposing teams are thrilled when he gets the ball

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

As it's been said, the Bills need a bigger back.  We need someone to contrast Cook, who can pound the rock, and can get those tough short yards. We don't need both Singletary and Cook. 

 

Foreman was the idea guy to fill that role and would've come cheap.  I can't believe Beane wasn't all over that.

 

 

Wouldn't have minded Foreman at all. 

 

But maybe Beane was all over that. We won't know unless there are some leaks about it or Beane shares regrets or something along those lines.

 

 

Edited March 17 by Thurman#1

[Billz4ever]

1 hour ago, 2003Contenders said:

BB indicated that the team is looking for a power back, which Singletary is not. To me that leaves the following options:

 

1. Davis or Hunt are about all that are left in free agency

2. Trade for Henry

3. Draft a big back in the middle rounds

 

I suppose with the RB market drying up the way it has and DS remaining unsigned, the Bills could be interested in bringing him back at a bargain price -- but I think they would still be looking for a power back, most likely in the draft in this situation.

 

We could've had Foreman but for some reason it didn't seem like Beane really pursued.  He'd have come cheap too.

 

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Wouldn't have minded Foreman at all. 

 

But maybe Beane was all over that. We won't know unless there are some leaks about it or Beane shares regrets or something along those lines.

 

 

 

He signed with the Bears for $3M.  I can't believe we couldn't do better than that if we tried.  Plus, we had the advantage of being a contender.

Edited March 17 by Billz4ever

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Niagara Dude said:

Do you even understand anything about burst to the line?  probably not.  Why do you think Allen is running so much and taking so many hits,  with teams loading up against the pass the running game is there.  They have not had a starting level RB in years,  Singletary relies on quickness and making guys miss.  That is not going to happen against most NFL defensive players.  He is an average RB and no team will offer him a contract because of it.

 

 

How about you Singletary supporters explain if he was so good and it's all on the line why no other teams are interested.  Sure resign him at league min,  but if they want to improve on offence they need a starting level RB so were not asking our QB to run the ball and expose him to hits.

Do you practice being arrogant or are you just gifted in that regard?

 

There is no more dependent position in the league than RB. Blocking matters, schemes and when plays are called matter.  I (and I venture to say other “Singletary supporters”) have never said that he is a star.  He is a solid starting RB that a team can win with.  Allen runs, in part, because it allows an extra blocker on those plays that isn’t available on RB carries - unless your QB is blocking.

 

I don’t care if you put even a better back behind this OL, they aren’t going to thrive without better blocking and schemes.  I think we can agree that OJ Simpson was a great RB - do you know that he didn’t top 800 yards in a season until his 4th year?  That had to do with OL play and, I’ll concede, addition of a better passing game that defenses had to account for.

 

 

[Mikey152]

Light boxes and not a lot of short yardage carries are a big reason his YPC are so high. I think the fact that when its 3rd or 4th and 2 or goal to go, they aren't giving the ball to Devin very often (and when they do he doesn't have a great track record)...that's why they aren't bringing him back.

 

That said, I don't think he is a bad back. He's just not what the Bills need.

 

 

Edited March 17 by Mikey152

[Thurman#1]

35 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

There is a reason we do not hear about any teams interested in signing him,  he an average back and we have had a non existent running game for the past 3-4 years because of it.

 

 

No, and that's dumb. On the face of it that's a conclusion that simply doesn't follow from the facts. What that shows very clearly is that you're so desperate to make a point that you'll use any evidence, even irrelevant evidence, even a complete lack of evidence to try unsuccessfully to make your point. It only speaks to your extreme confirmation bias.

 

Again, did you hear all about our interest in Connor McGovern. If your logic had any basis at all, that would have proved that nobody was interested in Connor McGovern. 

 

Again, says more - far more - about your confirmation bias than it does about Devin Singletary.

 

The actual reason we do not hear about any teams that are interested in signing him are ... well, we have no idea. There are almost an infinite number of possible reasons. They are many, they are various and until we get evidence, they are guesswork of the absolute purest kind. 

 

 

25 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

We could've had Foreman but for some reason Beane it didn't look like Beane pursued.  He'd have come cheap too.

He signed with the Bears for $3M.  I can't believe we couldn't do better than that if we tried.  Plus, we had the advantage of being a contender.

 

 

Again, you haven't a clue whether or not he pursued. For all you know his girlfriend is from Chicago. There is zero good evidence - right now at least - that they didn't go after him. 

 

 

Absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence. It simply ... is ... not.

 

They didn't get him. That's what we know.

 

You can't believe we couldn't have done better? Well, I disagree. I like him but not that much, but who knows, maybe your're right. Time will tell.

 

 

Edited March 17 by Thurman#1

[SoCal Deek]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Do you practice being arrogant or are you just gifted in that regard?

 

There is no more dependent position in the league than RB. Blocking matters, schemes and when plays are called matter.  I (and I venture to say other “Singletary supporters”) have never said that he is a star.  He is a solid starting RB that a team can win with.  Allen runs, in part, because it allows an extra blocker on those plays that isn’t available on RB carries - unless your QB is blocking.

 

I don’t care if you put even a better back behind this OL, they aren’t going to thrive without better blocking and schemes.  I think we can agree that OJ Simpson was a great RB - do you know that he didn’t top 800 yards in a season until his 4th year?  That had to do with OL play and, I’ll concede, addition of a better passing game that defenses had to account for.

 

 

Not sure I agree with the last sentence. The ‘73 Bills featured a rookie QB that was clearly not established as a passer. They just gave the ball to OJ and dared the defense to stop him. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

While i agree with OP. I think many of us, myself included would be fine with Singletary coming back if the price is right. The problem is the RB position has been devalued so much it just doesn't make sense to pay more than the minimum you can get away with at the position. Singletary deserves to try and get as much as he can while he can on the open market. Even if it is "only" a couple million more than the Bills would offer on a two- or three-year contract, that's still $2 million more at a position that really doesn't make 10's of millions anymore. Got to get what you can when you can.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Singletary is a shifty back w/ surprising toughness for his size. Serviceable receiver and adequate in pass pro. Most importantly he is durable!  The fact that he is able to churn out decent yardage w/ such subpar run blocking is pretty impressive. No, he’s not explosive like Saquon or a punisher like Derrick Henry, but he’s a top notch complimentary back that can do just about everything . I think his role in Buffalo is perfectly suited for him and I hope they re-sign him. Like a previous poster mentioned…the grass isn’t always greener. He’s been a key piece in a proven offense so why mess with that? If people want to see more production then FIX THE LINE. 

[OldTimer1960]

14 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Not sure I agree with the last sentence. The ‘73 Bills featured a rookie QB that was clearly not established as a passer. They just gave the ball to OJ and dared the defense to stop him. 

I understand your point, but Fergy was at least as good as Dennis Shaw even as a rookie.  But the point is that they had built a very good OL by then.  The Electric Company turned on the Juice!

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

 

Singletary is solid. Happy to have him back at or near vet min. Very good at pass pro. Not great as a receiving back. Tough runner but smaller so workload with the Bills has always been light. Good production on limited carries. That seems like a nice fit except for the pass catching. Still, he’d have a role here. 

[Thurman#1]

40 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

The guy works extremely hard...but he is not a threat whatsoever. Opposing teams are thrilled when he gets the ball

 

 

Right. Teams are "thrilled" when a back runs for 4.6 YPC against them, as Singletary does. They get all warm and fuzzy. You see DCs posting those stats on Instagram, when RBs get 4.6 per carry on them.

 

 

 

[Niagara Dude]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Do you practice being arrogant or are you just gifted in that regard?

 

There is no more dependent position in the league than RB. Blocking matters, schemes and when plays are called matter.  I (and I venture to say other “Singletary supporters”) have never said that he is a star.  He is a solid starting RB that a team can win with.  Allen runs, in part, because it allows an extra blocker on those plays that isn’t available on RB carries - unless your QB is blocking.

 

I don’t care if you put even a better back behind this OL, they aren’t going to thrive without better blocking and schemes.  I think we can agree that OJ Simpson was a great RB - do you know that he didn’t top 800 yards in a season until his 4th year?  That had to do with OL play and, I’ll concede, addition of a better passing game that defenses had to account for.

 

 

We're done on this topic,  you seem to think Singletary is a great back ti have and I don't agree if we make to improve on bringing him back.  No need to insult each other, it's ok not to agree with rock throwing.

[Scott7975]

Singletary is a good back and under appreciated here. Our o line was terrible. We hardly ever ran the ball. Singletary still produced. That said, when people say “running backs are a dime a dozen,” Singletary is the type of back they are referring to. A good back that will get the job done but not elite where he makes a defense sweat. 

Edited March 17 by Scott7975