Singletary—inarguably above average statistically: discuss

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Gore averaged 3.6 against the same teams and the chiefs’ ypc since 2019 is under 4.7. Come up with a more empirically sound argument.

See above.

 

Gore was what, 36?  The Chiefs actually utilize their RBs inside the 10.  Mahomes has never come close to 700 rushing yards on the year.  Those carries go to the RBs, as they should.  

[GreggTX]

I agree that Motor is above average. He's very shifty, has good vision and balance, but his receiving skills and speed hold him back. If he could run a 4.4 and had bigger, softer hands, he'd be elite. I'd like either him, J Williams or B Robinson. The problem with our run game has long been the OL. McGovern is an average pass protector, but a very poor run blocker. I fear the rest of the OL will remain unchanged. If I were a FA RB, I don't think Buffalo would be a team I'd target in FA. I hope Cook improves in year 2, but he'll never be a workhorse type or a between the Tackles runner. I don't honestly see much of a role for Hines outside KR and I expect Hasty to win the PR job. I think that McDermott's relatively little experience working with offense as a former S and DC is the main reason that he and Beane continually sell the OL short of talent. Most other top teams have significantly better blocking and running, especially KC and Cincinnati. I think it's holding us back and placing too much pressure on Josh to carry the offense. This, in turn, has been one reason why he's turned the ball over so much.

[Freddie's Dead]

And I thought the McKittrick hate thread was wack.  All Motor does is produce when they hand him the rock, albeit behind a bottom half run blocking o line.  If we can get him cheap, he should stay.  Who else is out there that can deliver 4.7ypc at Motor's price?

[Niagara Dude]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

4.65 FORTY,  he does not have enough speed or burst to be a starting level RB and that is why he is still available. His average is based on teams worried about Allen,  we need an upgrade.

[Niagara Dude]

5 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

I would say he’s an average back at best.

 

His YPC are a bit inflated IMO as he runs against a lot of light boxes and doesn’t get a ton of 3rd and shorts/goal line touches. (He did get more in 2022)

 

I do like his game as he plays tough. But he definitely has some flaws. (Fumbling, no break away speed)

No speed and no burst,  they need to upgrade the position and stop expecting Allen to run. 

[BillsFan130]

7 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Over hundreds of carries, it all averages out. Trust me. The sample size with Singletary (672 carries) is huge at this point.

672 carries in 4 years is really not a lot at all though and he’s never had 900 yards in his career. So  That’s an average of 10 carries a game basically over that span . Josh Jacobs alone last year had 340 lol.

 

My point is: He is only getting 10 carries a game, which is going to keep him more fresh/efficient.

 

He runs a lot against light boxes. And he didn’t get a ton of short yardage carries.

 

You add all that up and it makes sense why is YPC is good.
 

Give him 15-20 carries a game like a typical starting RB, and couple that with going against more 8 man fronts/short yardage carries? inarguably his YPC would drop significantly 

Edited March 17 by BillsFan130

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Gore was what, 36?  The Chiefs actually utilize their RBs inside the 10.  Mahomes has never come close to 700 rushing yards on the year.  Those carries go to the RBs, as they should.  

I’ve got no problem using Josh Allen as a threat, but I would much rather it be a decoy more than actually having him run it in places where he’s going to take a hit
 

Some of those interceptions that he had last year could’ve been prevented if we could have just ran the ball inside the red zone

[Charles Romes]

Singletary’s ypc numbers are artificially skewed upward by him not being good enough to be handed the rock when the tough short yardage yards are needed. Never having to run against short yardage defenses will certainly help your ypc. I am so sick of being 2nd and 2 and then worrying about how we are going to get the first down and the massive punishment josh is going to be taking the next few plays. Should have overpaid a little for Jamaal. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Looks like the subject line of this thread is inaccurate.  As is witnessed here, you can argue about anything.

Edited March 17 by Matt_In_NH

[Coach Tuesday]

On reflection, I’ve got more wiggle than burst, too.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

 

 

Inarguably is a bit strong. But yeah, probably a bit above average. He's always among the leaders in missed tackles and he does very well at YPA despite an OL that is probably below average.

 

He's a good player. Not great, but good. Wouldn't be surprised to see them bring him back, based largely on what the price ends up being.

 

2 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

4.65 FORTY,  he does not have enough speed or burst to be a starting level RB and that is why he is still available. His average is based on teams worried about Allen,  we need an upgrade.

 

 

You don't need to be fast. You need to be effective.

 

Motor is effective.

 

Edited March 17 by Thurman#1

[BuffaloFan68]

I felt Motor was coming into his prime and with an improved O-line it was just going to be a matter of how many touches per game he got and he could be one of the top 16-20 backs in the league. JMHO

Go Bills!!!!!

[Thurman#1]

32 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Singletary’s ypc numbers are artificially skewed upward by him not being good enough to be handed the rock when the tough short yardage yards are needed. Never having to run against short yardage defenses will certainly help your ypc. I am so sick of being 2nd and 2 and then worrying about how we are going to get the first down and the massive punishment josh is going to be taking the next few plays. Should have overpaid a little for Jamaal. 

 

 

Yeah, um, he's got 10 first downs and one TD on 3rd down and 1-3 yards this year, behind that OL that isn't great.

 

Five attempts the year before that, for 42 yards, another TD and three first downs.

 

For his career, he's got two carries on 4th and 1-3 and on both he got enough for first downs, though one was actually a TD instead.

 

For his career, 35 attempts at 3rd and 1-3 and 24 first downs.

 

Again, behind that line. He does lose a lot of carries because Allen is so good and so tough and running Allen means you have a man advantage. 

 

But Singletary is pretty good at it, though behind that line.

 

[Chaos]

19 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yeah, um, he's got 10 first downs and one TD on 3rd down and 1-3 yards this year, behind that OL that isn't great.

 

Five attempts the year before that, for 42 yards, another TD and three first downs.

This is only meaningful if the context of how many 3 and 1-3 yard situations are given.   If Singletary is used in 80% of those situtations and is converting them 100% of the time, he is an incredible stud.   If he is used in 10% of the situations and converts 50%, then he is just getting conversions by the element of suprise on occassion.  So your statistical support doesn't really allow any conclusions to be reached. 

[John from Riverside]

Draft running backs, rinse repeat

 

Draft Bijan Robinson‘s back up cost control contract big body can catch

[Magox]

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I just don’t think that he’s the type of back that the bills are looking for

 

And it’s not that he’s not good he’s just not a pounder

 

James Cook replicates a lot of what he does

I agree that the Bills are probably looking for more of thicker bodied, in-between the tackle runner.   Beane pretty much said as much in his presser.  I’d be happy to have Singletary again, I just don’t think that is who they are looking for.

 

I thought Foreman was going to be the guy they picked up, now that these sort of options are dwindling down they either get their guy in the next few days or they settle on a low end vet to compete with a RB draft choice to fill that spot.

[BillsFan130]

One final thing I’ll say: I think we need to have more context when looking at stats and in this case, his high YPC

Jimmy G had a better passer rating than Josh the last two years.

 

Does that make him an elite QB and better than Josh? No.

 

He throws against way more single high safeties and is going to get a lot of more 1 on 1s. Teams sell out to stop SFs run so Jimmy G benefits.

 

For singletary, teams sell out to stop Josh with two deep safeties so Singletary benefits with his YPC.

 

Pacheco for context averaged 4.9 YPC with the chiefs this year. Same rules apply as teams sell out to stop Mahomes with two deep 

[OldTimer1960]

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I just don’t think that he’s the type of back that the bills are looking for

 

And it’s not that he’s not good he’s just not a pounder

 

James Cook replicates a lot of what he does

This is a fair assessment.  Singletary is a good RB, but his skills are replicated by Cooks’ who is cheaper, younger and faster.  They tried to pair Singletary with a more powerful runner in Moss, but Moss didn’t pan out (maybe due to injury?). I think they are looking for what they hoped Moss would be to go with Cook.

[Billzgobowlin]

I think OBD has questions of whether Singletary is good enough to start in this league.  He has no elusiveness and no speed, heck he can't even find cutback lanes most of the time.  I'm starting to think the line wasn't as big of an issue as the RBs themselves

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

4.65 FORTY,  he does not have enough speed or burst to be a starting level RB and that is why he is still available. His average is based on teams worried about Allen,  we need an upgrade.

Here we go with the 40 time obsession.  Way overblown.  Yes, better to be faster than slower, but RBs very rarely just run straight through gaping holes.  They need to have vision, ability to avoid or run through tackles - both of which Singletary does well.  No doubt, there are occasions when, after he has gotten to the open field with the above mentioned skills, he gets caught where a speedier player might have gotten more yardage, but I think it is unrealistic to think that there are tons and tons of yards left on the field due to that.  Singletary is a good starting RB is he perfect? No, but neither are most other RBs.

 

There is considerably more to being a good NFL player than straight line speed.