very good SI piece by Andrew Brandt on "cap jail" nonsense because you had to pay a quarterback

[dave mcbride]

Have at it: https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/02/22/top-quarterback-contracts-salary-cap-misconception-space

[GunnerBill]

About halfway down the article a reminder of my favourite cap fact and one that bears repeating often....... "Cap is just accounting."

[Augie]

So, cap jail is kind of like Otis in Mayberry? You can just grab the key and let yourself out? 

[SCBills]

We're not in "cap jail" because of a QB contract anyway.

 

We're in perceived cap jail because of the perception that we won't trade Oliver and must re-sign Edmunds.  

[Success]

Great article, and very true. I have also seen some analysts say that Allen's contract is already a bargain, and he'll probably be more in the range of the 10th highest QB pay in just a year or 2.

 

Beane has some flaws, but I think he's kind of a wizard w/ the cap, at least so far.  I trust him to be able to work the dollars so we'll always be able to surround Allen w/ a competitive team.

 

[HOUSE]

Let me manage the money, I guarantee big savings....

 

 Players can buy their own uniforms and

No more Gatorade,  drink water 

 

.

 

 

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by HOUSE

[eSJayDee]

Yes, it is "just accounting", but sooner or later, you have to pay the piper.  Under a rookie contract, a 1st round QB is costing < $10m/yr cap.  Assuming he pans out, his next contract is gonna avg $40-$50m.  That extra $30m or whatever is PRECISELY the $ you need to sign your other premium/elite players.

Yes, the bottom 1/2 of your roster doesn't cost much cap wise (I think he's generous in his estimate, as he seems to be short a few player & you also have to pay all your injury replacements & presumably all your cuts w/ guaranteed contracts)

Having that QB on his costly contract means that you can't afford 2 or 3 other costly contracts; in our case that means some combination of Edmunds, Poyer, Singletary &/or some starting quality FAs that we'll be unable to sign)

[first_and_ten]

Any cap problems that the Bills have right now comes from overpaying on the defensive side. Look at our D line. All that money put into it and we get nothing come playoff time. Put the money into a better Offensive line and more weapons for our franchise quarterback. Then the Bills will be dangerous come playoff time. Also, in my humble opinion, they need a an upgrade from Frazier. 

[machine gun kelly]

Andrew Brandt is one of my favorites in terms of the business of the NFL.  He used to have a weekly stint with Ross Tucker each Wednesday morning at around 6:30 am EST.  
 

He was always so informative evaluating and educating the NFLR audience on these topics.  
 

He’s the farthest from the hot take uneducated POV.

 

An attorney and former business guy for the Packers forever and now with so many outlets, he’s like EF Hutton.  When he talks, I listen.

 

Thanks OP for sharing.

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Have at it: https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/02/22/top-quarterback-contracts-salary-cap-misconception-space

 

Lots of guessing rather than taking time to look at rosters. That is  cop-out, a tired excuse and bulls--- 

 

Quote

NFL team rosters have varying numbers of players on rookie contracts, but my best estimate is between 50% and 65% of NFL rosters are players under their first NFL contract. Let’s say there are 30 such players on a team’s roster, and we’ll say that, conservatively, each player has a cap charge of $1 million. That is a cumulative cap charge of $30 million for more than half the team.

 

Math for people who do not want to do work.

[WhoTom]

14 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Let me manage the cap, I guarantee big savings....

Plus, the players can buy their own uniforms. 

No more Gatorade,  drink water 

 

"Sorry, Tremaine. Terry left his wallet on his private jet."

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

One thing I can see happening in the next CBA is teams similar to what the NBA has getting the Larry Bird exemption deal where they can place say 3 or 4 players as cornerstone franchise pieces and those players they can pay more then anyone else and it won’t have difference in the teams cap structure or something like it as salaries keep getting out of hand for QBs 

[machine gun kelly]

55 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

One thing I can see happening in the next CBA is teams similar to what the NBA has getting the Larry Bird exemption deal where they can place say 3 or 4 players as cornerstone franchise pieces and those players they can pay more then anyone else and it won’t have difference in the teams cap structure or something like it as salaries keep getting out of hand for QBs 

 

That will never happen.  All of the other three major sports employs a great deal less players and although they have guaranteed contracts, it’s not a 53 or should I say a 69 man roster including PS.

 

These owners love this cap as it’s a hard edit, and a hard cap.  There are certainly manipulations in Terms of cash over cap, and converting roster to signing bonuses.  The owners don’t want exemptions as that is less profit, and they expend a ton to buy a franchise.  They get incredible tax exemptions, but they also expend a great deal of cash.

[17islongenough]

Only cap hell if you pay an average qb

[ColoradoBills]

Cap jail or hell or whatever term fans want to use only happens when a team goes way in to win it all.

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

 

Teams like KC and Buffalo have to let some high dollar players walk.  KC couldn't keep Hill unless they let someone else goes.

Bills have decisions similar to that with Poyer, Edmunds and even a guy like Oliver.  Beane will work through it.

[1st&ten]

2 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Let me manage the money, I guarantee big savings....

 

 Players can buy their own uniforms and

No more Gatorade,  drink water 

 

.

 

 

 

What about those expensive mouth guards ?

[PBF81]

Great piece!!!  But not really mentioned or even implied in the piece is, "What are you getting for your money?"  (Cash in particular, but Cap also, Contracts in general)  

 

You have to have talent to compete regardless of where it comes from.  Whether it walks in from stocking supermarket shelves, as Undrafted Free Agents, 6th & 7th Round draft picks, 4th & 5th Round draft picks, or Day 1 & 2 draft picks, Veteran Free Agents, etc.  But the most expensive ones are Veteran Free Agents. 

 

When those don't perform and you haven't been able to get the required play from your draftees, that's when cap issues begin to mount, and when the amount of money going out isn't coming back to you.  That's when the team's that are getting back from what they spent will outperform you.  

 

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by PBF81

[MrEpsYtown]

2 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Let me manage the money, I guarantee big savings....

 

 Players can buy their own uniforms and

No more Gatorade,  drink water 

 

.

 

 

 

Ralph? That you?

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

We're not in "cap jail" because of a QB contract anyway.

 

We're in perceived cap jail because of the perception that we won't trade Oliver and must re-sign Edmunds immense waste by Beane in free agency since 2018.

 

Beane has really struggled to find value in UFA........that is why they are cap strapped.

 

Their drafts have been better than average and he's gotten good value on his own re-signs..........in a league where you can roll over cap the sheer volume of dollars thrown away on bad UFA decisions has put them into creative accounting mode a couple years earlier than they should be.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

Honestly those saying the cap doesn't matter at all and those saying the cap is a major issue are both incorrect really.  The reality is that it really lands somewhere in the middle and other factors lend to both.

 

Yes, it is true that it is possible for some teams who are tight on cap space or even over the cap can make maneuvers to manipulate their cap space to free up enough to make the moves they want.  However, that does not mean it universally works in every situation, it has no future potential ramifications, or that it is limitless in how much cap space they can magically free up in one offseason. 

 

It is absolutely possible that teams who make these kinds of maneuvers can later find themselves in an unsurmountable cap jail situation.  Does not mean they always will, but cap jail is a real thing that teams and GM's can find themselves in through poor cap management, bad contracts, and poor roster decisions.

 

This is why cap management is an important skill set of a GM despite people falsely believing the cap doesn't matter.  If your GM doesn't manage and maneuver it properly, abuses it, etc..then down the road ramifications can be significant.  Which is why I always laugh at people who think it doesn't matter, because it very much does and its honestly one of the most important parts of the GM's job.  And a GM who is good at cap management can definitely minimize the restrictions of the cap and make it feel less rigid or constricting.  

 

That being said, I have no concerns about us as Beane has been very good at how he has managed the cap, contract structures, player retention, etc where the deals are both good for the players and provide Beane and the team the flexibility to keep a contending roster around Josh Allen.  So if there is a move they want to make, I am confident in Beane's ability to put us in position to do it and also minimize future cap risk.