Week 16: Bills at Bears on Christmas Eve

[hemma]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

LOL did you read the article?

 

The study is comparing games played at or below 50 degrees F vs games played at 70 F

 

 

I know.  Can’t imagine the multiplier in effect at 0 dot 0.

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Might want to start scheming up some short passing plays Mr. Dorsey. We already know we can’t run.

We can’t run?  Why is that?

[Beck Water]

37 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

 Crowder’s pretty much a certainty IMO.

 

I don't think that at all.  It's one thing to be able to run and even do a ladder agility drill.

It's another thing to have the muscle built back up to where he can cut and stop without possible re-injury

It's possible in theory but, at the time he was first injured there were some articles about similar injuries where the WR came back quickly and was not able to be as effective

 

37 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

But Hyde is a longshot given the nature of his injury.

 I would love to see it, but he’s definitely not going to be rushed back since Hamlin has been playing pretty well back there with Po.

 

Pretty sure I read all about how Hamlin totally sucks and is a liability, elsewhere on this site

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, NewEra said:

We can’t run?  Why is that?

Was gona ask same exact thing. 

9 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Might want to start scheming up some short passing plays Mr. Dorsey. We already know we can’t run.

 

You are sadly mistaken

[Beck Water]

5 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Hopefully Allen being limited is more so a version of Vet Rest for him

 

He took a pretty hard helmet hit right on his elbow during one of his runs

Might have been a bad move to take the brace off just yet

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Hopefully Allen being limited is more so a version of Vet Rest for him

 

Probably because he got tomahawk chopped on the same arm when he was strip sacked.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Big Turk

[That's No Moon]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Probably because he got tomahawk chopped on the same arm when he was strip sacked.

Ding ding ding 

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Probably because he got tomahawk chopped on the same arm when he was strip sacked.

Yea, I was thinking of that play too. He was brilliant afterward though thankfully 

[DapperCam]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We can’t run?  Why is that?

 

5 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

Was gona ask same exact thing. 

 

You are sadly mistaken

Singletary is the #26 ranked back. It’s great that Allen can scramble (which is where the majority of the team’s rushing yards come from), but when it comes to actual designed runs with our running backs we stink.

 

Why is that? I blame the o-line mostly.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, WEATHER DOT COM said:

Make sure your cell phone is charged.

 

If you live in western New York, that might be the only way you can stay updated with the game Saturday. Maybe get a battery powered AM radio too.

 

Be prepared for a power outage.

 

Merry Christmas

 

Why does this post sound like a threat

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

 

Singletary is the #26 ranked back. It’s great that Allen can scramble (which is where the majority of the team’s rushing yards come from), but when it comes to actual designed runs with our running backs we stink.

 

Why is that? I blame the o-line mostly.

 

They don't.  The RBs average 4.5 YPC. They simply don't run as much as other teams do. 

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Why does this post sound like a threat

 

60-70 mph winds expected along with whiteout conditions Saturday and heavy lake snows...high potential it will be upgraded to a Blizzard Warning at some point.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Big Turk

[Warriorspikes51]

3 hours ago, WEATHER DOT COM said:

 

Just reading the tea leaves on the NWS Buffalo forecast this weekend.

 

Temps in the teens + 70 mph wind gusts + a foot of snow = disaster.

 

Be prepared.

 

 

WEATHER DOT COM.   So are you Don Paul, Pat Hammer or Jim Cantore? 

[Warcodered]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

He took a pretty hard helmet hit right on his elbow during one of his runs

Might have been a bad move to take the brace off just yet

I was worried about that strip sack, afterwards he basically just ran it on the next drive, the TD pass to Knox and some more passes on the following one was a relief.

[stevewin]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Reddit Free streams online are always a good option in a pinch

 

 

Hamlin has been OK to good...mainly against the run but is a big liability compared to Hyde in coverage. Probably have allowed more deep passes this year than the last 3 years combined.

I haven't seen anything but poor play from Hamlin - clueless in coverage and consistently taking the wrong angles and missing tackles - consistently.  Even today on GMFB they had Mostert's long run for Angry Runs - everyone called out Epenesa, but sure enough there was Hamlin right next to him, slowing down, not getting the angle, and getting swatted away like a fly.  I don't think I've ever seen a player so consistently on the bad side of plays.

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

 

Singletary is the #26 ranked back. It’s great that Allen can scramble (which is where the majority of the team’s rushing yards come from), but when it comes to actual designed runs with our running backs we stink.

 

Why is that? I blame the o-line mostly.

Last I knew, Singletary wasn’t the only player capable of rushing.  
 

We’re 3rd in the league in YPC @ 5.0.  We’re 8th in the league in rushing.  More rushing yards than SF. 
 

if you don’t think we can run the ball, you don’t know very much about this team.  We can run.  
 

James cook is a RB, he runs on RB designed runs as you say.  He’s averaging 5.3 ypc.  
 

Sorry, you don’t know what you’re talking about.  

[Big Turk]

Just now, stevewin said:

I haven't seen anything but poor play from Hamlin - clueless in coverage and consistently taking the wrong angles and missing tackles - consistently.  Even today on GMFB they had Mostert's long run for Angry Runs - everyone called out Epenesa, but sure enough there was Hamlin right next to him, slowing down, not getting the angle, and getting swatted away like a fly.  I don't think I've ever seen a player so consistently on the bad side of plays.

 

He has made a multitude of good run stops coming from depth at safety...Cover 1 has a video out showing them on the All-22.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

He has made a multitude of good run stops coming from depth at safety...Cover 1 has a video out showing them on the All-22.

To my eye, he’s regressed since he first took over.  He’s taken a bunch of bad angles and is a liability vs the pass.  He’s ok, but I’m worried about the better passing team going after him.  

[Big Turk]

Holy crap...basically pressure expected to be on par with a Category 3 hurricane when it gets here

 

 

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

To my eye, he’s regressed since he first took over.  He’s taken a bunch of bad angles and is a liability vs the pass.  He’s ok, but I’m worried about the better passing team going after him.  

 

Agree on the pass liability part. 

[Nineforty]

I take Josh at his word and think it was a meaningful admission a couple of weeks back when he said he is going to be dealing with the elbow issue for the foreseeable future.

 

Doesn't mean I expect losses! But I think it is an important factor and something that makes me nervous for the rest of the season and in the offseason when I'm expecting a surgery to be scheduled (shortly after he hoists the Lombardi). 

[WEATHER DOT COM]

15 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Holy crap...basically pressure expected to be on par with a Category 3 hurricane when it gets here

 

 

whoa momma

[Chandler#81]

 

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

51 minutes ago, hemma said:

I know.  Can’t imagine the multiplier in effect at 0 dot 0.

Maybe, maybe not. Interpolation is one thing, but you are extrapolating. For all we know injuries are lower in extreme cold as people play differently. Who knows?

[Big Turk]

 

[Mango]

24 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

So if I’m understanding you properly, you’re proposing that they build a dome over all of Western New York to keep the snow out? Game was moved due to conditions that were UNSAFE TO TRAVEL IN. 
 

Confirming the move in a statement on Thursday, the NFL cited "public safety concerns" due to the extreme weather expected in Buffalo.

 

Erie County, which encompasses Buffalo, declared a state of emergency on Thursday and imposed a driving ban starting at 9pm local time for all but authorized emergency travel. 
 

New York Governor Kathy Hochul said in a press briefing on Thursday that the impending lake-effect blizzard was "life threatening".

 

Some things are bigger than football you simpleton. 

 

 

Don't worry about it. Jerry is just yelling at clouds until he tires himself out. He will go down for his nap shortly. 

[Big Turk]

Bills #1 in Pro Football Reference's Simple Rating System and DVOA

 

 

[BuffaninSarasota]

4 hours ago, SUNY_amherst said:

it was a just guess since they lobbied so hard last time 

oh yeah, I remember this crap take  - I see you're doubling down

[Mark Vader]

8 hours ago, Blah Blah said:

I lived in Chicago for a few years. I've never been to a place that cold and windy. Buffalo might have its snowstorms but in Chicago, your nostrils freeze together. I was working for a place just off Michigan Ave and happened to be looking out the window, when I saw a poor guy in a wheelchair trying to cross the street without any help. The wind blew him off his wheelchair and he rolled around in the street for a few minutes. People tried to help him but he refused help. Someone fetched his wheelchair, which had blown crazily farther away and he eventually got back in it, by himself, and made it across the street. Chicago winters are absolutely brutal but it keeps the riff-raff off the streets. I think you'll see crime plummet a bit in the winter over there.

I don't know about that. Jussie Smollett was on the streets in wintertime there.

[Rich Stadium Original]

For those paying attention, I wouldnt worry about Josh Allen's elbow and throwing the ball anywhere if the weather forecast materializes.  High temperature will be around 8 degrees and winds gusting over 50 miles an hour.  Even with a healthy elbow thats way more wind than he can throw in.

Makes me wonder if the Bills field a true 4-3 defense as Fields is probably even less likely to throw the ball.

[Warriorspikes51]

8 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

For those paying attention, I wouldnt worry about Josh Allen's elbow and throwing the ball anywhere if the weather forecast materializes.  High temperature will be around 8 degrees and winds gusting over 50 miles an hour.  Even with a healthy elbow thats way more wind than he can throw in.

Makes me wonder if the Bills field a true 4-3 defense as Fields is probably even less likely to throw the ball.

 

Put armor on Allen's arm and let him run for 200 yards and 4 TDs 

[Mark Vader]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

I was at Bills Raiders game where wind chill was 32 below...game temp was 0. There was never talk about moving the game to a different venue or another day

That was B.G.     Before Goodell.

 

Things were so much better when Tagliabue was commissioner. 

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Last I knew, Singletary wasn’t the only player capable of rushing.  
 

We’re 3rd in the league in YPC @ 5.0.  We’re 8th in the league in rushing.  More rushing yards than SF. 
 

if you don’t think we can run the ball, you don’t know very much about this team.  We can run.  
 

James cook is a RB, he runs on RB designed runs as you say.  He’s averaging 5.3 ypc.  
 

Sorry, you don’t know what you’re talking about.  

Most of those rushing yards are Allen scrambling. He’s our leading rusher. The QB picking up chunks on broken plays isn’t what most people consider part of the “rushing game”.

 

If the other team knows we need to run, we can’t do it. Why do you think we are so bad at 3rd and short? We’re among the worst in the league at 3rd and short, but still one of the best 3rd down teams overall because we can’t run.

[Warcodered]

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

18 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

That was B.G.     Before Goodell.

 

Things were so much better when Tagliabue was commissioner. 

You ain't lying 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Might want to start scheming up some short passing plays Mr. Dorsey. We already know we can’t run.

 

6 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Most of those rushing yards are Allen scrambling. He’s our leading rusher. The QB picking up chunks on broken plays isn’t what most people consider part of the “rushing game”.

 

If the other team knows we need to run, we can’t do it. Why do you think we are so bad at 3rd and short? We’re among the worst in the league at 3rd and short, but still one of the best 3rd down teams overall because we can’t run.

You’re moving the goalposts. You said we already know we can’t run….  You said nothing about Devin Singletary being the only runner on the team.  The other runners being 17 and 28.

 

Josh Allen is a part of our run game.  Not sure why you exclude him?  Do the ravens exclude Lamar?  Does Philly exclude Hurts?  
 

How is James cook averaging 5.3 ypc if we can’t run.  Does he sometimes play QB and scramble?  
 

what is our 3rd and short conversion%?  Link please

 

[Jeffalo]

After we have a big lead, send Gabe on a go route and have Josh launch one up into the Jetstream, 98 all-air yards!

[GottaRun]

I don't know who needs to hear this, but clearly some of you do...

 

THE GAME IS ON SATURDAY!!!

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, ytownblofan said:

I've seen you say this multiple times, and I'm curious, what knowledge or evidence do you have of them "lobbying so hard" to move the game? 

 

Why are you feeding this guy the attention he plainly craves so deeply and stirs the ***** so hard to achieve?

[CSBill]

14 minutes ago, GottaRun said:

I don't know who needs to hear this, but clearly some of you do...

 

THE GAME IS ON SATURDAY!!!

Did anyone hear? Are they moving the game to Monday?

[GottaRun]

3 minutes ago, CSBill said:

Did anyone hear? Are they moving the game to Monday?

I mean... possibly... I was responding to all the people who keep saying "the game Sunday". 

 

The Bears website https://www.chicagobears.com/ doesn't seem to have any chatter about moving, just about it being cold.  When our game was moved there was a least a bit of chatter on the Bills site about it being possible. 

[Beck Water]

50 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Most of those rushing yards are Allen scrambling. He’s our leading rusher. The QB picking up chunks on broken plays isn’t what most people consider part of the “rushing game”.

 

If the other team knows we need to run, we can’t do it. Why do you think we are so bad at 3rd and short? We’re among the worst in the league at 3rd and short, but still one of the best 3rd down teams overall because we can’t run.

 

 

We execute designed QB run plays for Allen.  I can't give you a breakdown of how much of his yards are designed runs vs scrambles, but designed QB runs are a not inconsiderable part of the run yardage Allen gains.  It's not correct to characterize "most of those rushing yards are Allen scrambling". 

 

For another thing, while Allen is the team's leading rusher, don't confuse that with "Allen generates most of the team's rushing yards".  As you can see from the table in the link above, about 63% (almost 2/3) of the Bills rush yards come from rushers not named Josh Allen.

 

It's a fair point that Allen is a large part of our run game, but you don't just get to define Allen's runs out of the picture and say "we have no run game and can barely run".  That would be like saying "except for this and that long play, the Bills D didn't give up any yards".    All the yards our D gives up count; All the rush yards we gain, whether from other backs or from Allen, count.

 

That means we're 8th in the league at running the ball.

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Singletary is the #26 ranked back. It’s great that Allen can scramble (which is where the majority of the team’s rushing yards come from)

 

I'm afraid you need to show some data to back this statement up. 

 

First of all, as tabulated elsewhere and linked above, the majority of the Bills rush yards still come from the RBs.  Therefore this statement is false, and you should stop making it.

 

Second, for the ~36-37% of the Bills rush yards that Allen generates, you'd  need to show that the majority of them are scrambles, and not designed QB runs or "keeps" on read-options or RPOs in order to make your case.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Beck Water