Orlovsky: Bills aren't as talented offensively as we thought

[Locomark]

12 hours ago, StHustle said:

Crazy how some fans refuse to consider that fact he’s playing on a bum ankle. He actually gets open a lot when you consider that fact. When healthy he is a top caliber #2 and has proven that.

I am not discounting his injury. I am still saying if he has an ankle issue then you modify his game and let him get some possession and curl snaps and use his big body type for those 3rd down catches which we aren’t converting. It appears he may not be able to separate and catch 8 yard passes because he is never used that way. It appears he lacks short area moves.  If you take away the Pittsburgh and Vikes game he is averaging in the high 30 yards per game. That’s not a great #2.

3 hours ago, Pete said:

Opposing defenses keep two Safeties deep, and spy Josh- that’s been taking away the big plays up top, and stopping some big Josh runs.

dorsey needs to figure how to beat that.  

It’s throwing down the seam to your TE, which we haven’t been doing because our RT needs help with chip blocks constantly. To me this is where they should be throwing to McKenzie or Brown. Miami does this 5 times a game to much success to a WR. 

[Nitro]

IMO the Bills are lacking good OGs.  The pass protection is average and Dorsey has no imagination to attack the weaknesses on other teams.  Injuries have impacted the WR position and the league’s worst at dropping passes.  Crowder would be a welcome sight when he returns.  Problem is first down seems to the Bills worse down.  Allen needs to use the check down pass more to continue drives.  Nibbles vs chunks.

[Ralonzo]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

From what I've been reading, Saffold and Spencer Brown strengths are run blocking. If this is the case, why don't the Bills run the ball more towards their side? 

Probably because those are different sides.

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Josh is dealing with a nagging elbow injury that has been limiting him. I’m not sure why people aren’t realizing this. It’s not him regressing or anything. Sucks, but it’s the reality of the game. 
 

I still believe defenses win championships and we’ve gotta pretty damn good one. I think a title will solely depend on them. Allen & co will get theirs. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

It would help if we used the weapons we have, like more quick hitters to the RBs like we did early in the season. Also going over the middle would help, seems like we are always throwing out routes,  rub routes, more TEs.

 

Hopefully Beasley can help with the middle of the field.

 

 

[Brand J]

3 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Josh is dealing with a nagging elbow injury that has been limiting him. I’m not sure why people aren’t realizing this. It’s not him regressing or anything. Sucks, but it’s the reality of the game. 
 

I still believe defenses win championships and we’ve gotta pretty damn good one. I think a title will solely depend on them. Allen & co will get theirs. 

He’s dealing with an elbow, but he wasn’t overly sharp before the injury. If he didn’t have the elbow and was still playing like this what would be the excuse? He was 28th in QB rating after week 6 going into the Jets game last Sunday.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

8 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

He’s dealing with an elbow, but he wasn’t overly sharp before the injury. If he didn’t have the elbow and was still playing like this what would be the excuse? He was 28th in QB rating after week 6 going into the Jets game last Sunday.

Maybe so, but I think it is bothering him more than he is letting on. I’m not a big stat guy and don’t put huge stock in QB rating. He’s made some questionable decisions, but the Bills are still the number 1 seed. Allen is winning games and that’s what matters. I don’t care how ugly it looks. 

[Eastport bills]

On 12/12/2022 at 9:46 AM, Coach Tuesday said:

Not only is there too little creativity/too much predictability in scheme (even Romo knew it would be a running play when Diggs left the field), the offense has zero physicality or heart to it other than Allen and Diggs.  They are SOFT mentally and physically.  

 

Talent-wise, McKenzie should not be a starter on a supposedly good offense.  Cook has never broken a tackle in his life.  Saffold is a disgrace - he is stealing money from his employer.  Even Dawkins seems out of shape, his "always something" approach to physical maintenance has started to catch up with him.  Spencer Brown has not improved as a player.  Davis has become an afterthought.  They have zero backup tight ends.  Just a staggering lack of talent across the board stemming directly from an under-investment.

You’re a tough critic Tuesday. Could you imagine if we weren’t 10 and 3, no one could escape your wrath. McKenzie is a luxury item who would be better with less snaps and relegated to jet sweeps and 5 receiver sets. With Beasley, this will be the case. Saffold is effective in the run game and hasn’t given up many sacks. He’s been in the league 10 years.. I guess he has damaging pictures of the coaching staffs in Tenn and Buffalo. Dawkins had a bad game vs Jets but he’s opened holes for Motor and Josh along with Bates, which translates to decent rushing states this season.Maybe he’s still feeling the ankle injury. In your esteemed opinion as a talent evaluator you’ve decided Brown and Cook haven’t progressed and  are soft and mentally and physically. Davis has become an “afterthought “ because in a tough weather game he didn’t get many targets with Sauce covering him. So besides Dorsey being predictable in a game where Josh floated a few throws, multiple drops and endless holding penalties, how the hell did we score 20 and win? Please contact us when you decide how we won 10 and are the number 1 seed in the AFC Mr Tuesday. Thank goodness you are not in personnel decisions.

[bouds]

On 12/13/2022 at 1:05 AM, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Thanks Aaron.  

 

And yet on Sunday, Aaron was calling Dorsey's playcalling basic as *****....LOL

Bottom line, and I think Aaron would agree, in the heat of the moment we all say some crazy *****.  It's a good squad, could always be better, we have been better, but the air up here is not too bad.

[T master]

On 12/12/2022 at 8:46 AM, Coach Tuesday said:

Not only is there too little creativity/too much predictability in scheme (even Romo knew it would be a running play when Diggs left the field), the offense has zero physicality or heart to it other than Allen and Diggs.  They are SOFT mentally and physically.  

 

Talent-wise, McKenzie should not be a starter on a supposedly good offense.  Cook has never broken a tackle in his life.  Saffold is a disgrace - he is stealing money from his employer.  Even Dawkins seems out of shape, his "always something" approach to physical maintenance has started to catch up with him.  Spencer Brown has not improved as a player.  Davis has become an afterthought.  They have zero backup tight ends.  Just a staggering lack of talent across the board stemming directly from an under-investment.

 

Yet with one of the hardest strength of schedule they are still 10 & 3 a top of the AFC & lead their division go figure they must really suck !

 

Sure they are short of some talent in spots but you & others act as if they are the Falcons !

 

I take it from your post (I apologize if i'm seeing this wrong) that you are one of the few here that call for Beane & McD's head because they suck too or no ? 

 

I guess anything less than a super bowl & Bills Mafia will never be satisfied going from 17 years of not sniffing a play off game to being in the play offs every year since McD showed up is just not acceptable . 

 

I have a hard time understanding the I'm so down on the Bills mind set i guess the bills mafia is more of a glass half empty than a glass half full fan base .

[hondo in seattle]

On 12/13/2022 at 3:29 PM, Chaos said:

Not really any evidence of that in recent years in terms of wins and losses. Offense wins regular season games. Offense wins Championships. Offense wins Super Bowls.  Thats the rule.  There are a small handful of exceptions in this century to prove the rule. 

 

If that's true, you need a good defense to negate the other team's offense.  

[Radar]

I've taken some hits on the Shout Box for some of my assessments on the Bills. Seems like a realistic view of our team is ,by many fans, viewed as being a Debbie Downer. Our offense is basically Josh nd Diggs and a smattering of others now and then. Run game inconsistent and receivers other than Diggs are inconsistent. Offensive line very average. 

[The Frankish Reich]

It’s not like nobody noticed this before yesterday. 
I took a quick look at everyone’s favorite whipping boy, PFF. Here’s how our offensive players rated this year:

- Elite (score of 90+): Allen, Diggs

- Very Good to Pro Bowl quality (80s): none

- Good/starting player quality (70s): Dawkins, Singletary, Cook

- Backup/role player quality (60s): Davis, Knox, Morse, Bates, Hines, McKenzie

- Replacement level (50s): Brown, Quessenberry, Van Roten

- sub-Replacement level (40s): Saffold

 

So…2 elite players. 3 very good players (a bit charitable for Cook in my mind). And then a whole bunch of ordinary at best players. 
Not shocking at all: the O Line ratings. We saw Cincy’s backups far outperform our starters. Saffold looked done right from the start. Morse is nearing the end. Brown is a failed experiment, and Quessenberry remained a sack-generating machine. Bates was competent, but while you can get away with 1 or 2 such players on a line, there’s no hiding 4 of them. I see a lot of “Ike Boettger at guard” comments—I guess it’s better to have 2 Bates than a Bates and washed Saffold, but that doesn’t inspire much confidence either. 
As far as skill players: lots of good role players, but no standout of any type other than Diggs. 
We became extremely Allen-Dependent because there was no other option. You can’t make Davis into Tee Higgins, you can’t make Cook into Mixon (even given PFF’s grade inflation there). 
I don’t know where you find the line talent to upgrade without blowing the cap, but one thing I do know: there is no reason to ever keep a Replacement-Level player around if he’s earning more than the league minimum. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by The Frankish Reich

[LabattBlue]

It is pretty sad when your best OL is a soft tub of goo with a cool nickname. 

[The Frankish Reich]

9 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

It is pretty sad when your best OL is a soft tub of goo with a cool nickname. 

Yep. Going into the season I praised Beane for somewhat upgrading the O line and doing it on the cheap. Turns out you get what you paid for. 

[SectionC3]

On 12/13/2022 at 10:33 PM, Solomon Grundy said:

From what I've been reading, Saffold and Spencer Brown strengths are run blocking. If this is the case, why don't the Bills run the ball more towards their side? 

They play different sides. 

[Nextmanup]

On 12/12/2022 at 9:42 AM, Billz4ever said:

I don't like admitting it, but he makes fair points.  We are in 3rd and long far too often.  The O-line is not doing a great job and much of our offense is Josh creating on the fly, not executing the plays as designed because he either doesn't have time, or isn't finding an open receiver.

 

Outside of Josh and Diggs who has any confidence in anyone else in this offense?  

 

I'd say Motor, but he needs the blocking to be there and for the most part, it's not.

 

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=35237773

Lots of us have been talking about this for most of this season.

 

It's true.

 

Team needs a pretty solid retool this off-season.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Nextmanup

[ddaryl]

Just now, Nextmanup said:

 

Team needs to a pretty solid retool this off-season.

 

 

 

team needs a mini rebuild but that will be dangerous knowing that McBeane has been average at best at drafting

Edited January 23, 2023 by ddaryl

[seattlebillsfan]

1 hour ago, Reverse Meathead said:McDermott and Dorsey had no answers other than that big play or bust mentality... Burrow had a short game and a long game.  Bills only have long game.  This thread is about coach but Motor needs to motor to a new homestead.  His 1 or 2 yard production is putting you behind the 8 ball when Bengals are getting minimum 5 yards on first downs against this fraud defense  As long as McDermott, Frasier and Dorsey are here good luck being the Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Maple Leafs.

I would love to see data on whether the Bills became more big play oriented after #17 had his elbow injury. My sense was that the frequency and effectiveness of short passes was down from the Jets game onward, and I recall seeing remarks from another QB who had experienced a similar injury some years ago, that his short game accuracy and touch was affected more than his long game. Have been wondering whether some of the head scratching play calling and decision making was a function of these physical realities. If that were the case no one would ever talk about it, to avoid tipping off opposing coaches, but it might help explain some of what we have seen over the past 8-10 weeks. This is pure speculation though; as I said would love to see some data on these tendencies pre- and post- the early November Jets game…And most of all if true I hope #17 completely shuts down to recuperate for the next couple of months and figure out if anything else is needed to get him back to 100%…

[dorquemada]

10 minutes ago, seattlebillsfan said:

I would love to see data on whether the Bills became more big play oriented after #17 had his elbow injury. My sense was that the frequency and effectiveness of short passes was down from the Jets game onward, and I recall seeing remarks from another QB who had experienced a similar injury some years ago, that his short game accuracy and touch was affected more than his long game. Have been wondering whether some of the head scratching play calling and decision making was a function of these physical realities. If that were the case no one would ever talk about it, to avoid tipping off opposing coaches, but it might help explain some of what we have seen over the past 8-10 weeks. This is pure speculation though; as I said would love to see some data on these tendencies pre- and post- the early November Jets game…And most of all if true I hope #17 completely shuts down to recuperate for the next couple of months and figure out if anything else is needed to get him back to 100%…

 

Semi related, allen's last throw, the INT, he stepped into that, wound up, looked like he gave it everything he had, and it still was a soft fart that was way short.  His elbow is obviously bad right now

[Nephilim17]

I think Gabe's 4-TD playoff game was a bad thing as it gave fans and likely managment the illusory sense that Davis is a bona fide star and could very capably fill the #2 role.

He can't. 

 

Yes, a huge deficit of offensive talent starting with the line and playmakers. We're good enough to consistently beat teams with poor to middling QBs but not great teams.

[ctk232]

On 12/12/2022 at 9:46 AM, Coach Tuesday said:

Not only is there too little creativity/too much predictability in scheme (even Romo knew it would be a running play when Diggs left the field), the offense has zero physicality or heart to it other than Allen and Diggs.  They are SOFT mentally and physically.  

 

Talent-wise, McKenzie should not be a starter on a supposedly good offense.  Cook has never broken a tackle in his life.  Saffold is a disgrace - he is stealing money from his employer.  Even Dawkins seems out of shape, his "always something" approach to physical maintenance has started to catch up with him.  Spencer Brown has not improved as a player.  Davis has become an afterthought.  They have zero backup tight ends.  Just a staggering lack of talent across the board stemming directly from an under-investment.

Soft - excuse me "SOFT" - is the exact word that was in my mind all day yesterday. The defense, the offense, the coaches, everyone, just soft.

 

Fwiw that has not been the moniker for this team the whole season, but certainly since the bye it has regressed to this point. Even hearing the numerous guys saying "there was no juice" "no motivation" "no energy" I just have to keep wondering, why? You can point to any number of variables why that would be the case but out of all the issues for a team in the middle of their window to compete for an SB to have, that's arguably the biggest cancer.

 

I don't disagree with any of your personnel takes either; yesterday the words soft came to mind immediately due to line play, both sides of the ball. You have a top three QB and fail to provide him with protection; something that not only elevates Josh but also the floor of every other offensive position by letting routes develop, establishing a stout run game, and simply letting Josh feel comfortable enough to get momentum. None of that was there yesterday, from anyone. Defensively, man, you'd have thought we were the team missing 3 starting OL and fielding a one-legged Center given how they dominated our entire defense. When the entire defensive scheme is predicated on four guys pressuring the QB and you can't get any from seven guys blitzing, there's something abhorrently wrong with your defense. I need to check but I think I heard Romo say with Von our D was top 5 in pressures, and after losing him we were 27th? Need to confirm but the eye test holds. One guy can but frankly shouldn't make THAT big of a difference in a good holistic scheme. When you play soft zone coverage, safeties often 10-15 yards off the first down, and your DL cannot pressure something is horribly wrong. The offense is certainly not without all the issues you mention, but feel like this defense is almost in a worse place - if you can't pressure the QB this whole hybrid nickel zone scheme completely falls apart. Guys are having to cover for 7+ seconds on most snaps, and have zero contain on the QB regardless. Then there's tackling, omfg. The number of missed tackles this whole season is bush league. Guys can't wrap and tackle anymore. Watched the Bengals make open field flat tackles, TFL behind the line of scrimmage, or just simply tackling a guy 101, all with extreme ease. If you're going to have a defensive minded HC, at least have a defense that can do the only thing it's out there to do.

 

Excited isn't the right word, but extreme interest would be more apt to describe how I view this offseason. Beane has a list of questions, players and coaches, offense and defense, to address before next season comes around. Injuries are another, Von won't be back til when, next November at the earliest? What will Von's timeline be like given his age and injury, 2024? What about Josh's UCL? Hyde's neck? Milano's leg? Will Tre improve after his ACL recovery? Need more than IOL in the first round to address this line. And the DL needs an answer for when Von isn't there. Why is Frasier still here? What are the coaches doing to prepare this team for a divisional playoff game at home that they "have nothing" and play that soft? So many questions man. This team in my mind will compete for the playoffs next year no question, I think a few teams will regress and others will continue to rise, including our own division. Thanks to Josh we will almost always be among them but next year needs to be different in a lot of ways. They accomplished so much this season, but never addressed the cracks we saw the entire way - yesterday they just burst and we had no plan.

Edited January 23, 2023 by ctk232