PFF grades from KC...(for what they're worth)

[Brand J]

Going back and watching the highlights I focused in on Edmunds and maybe coincidentally they were some of his poorest plays, but an impact defender he was not. What gets me is the same thing that frustrates me most about his career as a coverage LBer - he almost always puts himself in position to make a play, but always seems content to let his assignment catch the ball so he can run and make the tackle. He never jumps routes.
Look at the pass to Kelce right before half, Edmunds runs right up to him and literally waits for him to catch the ball. I’d love to see him drive on the route once he recognizes the open receiver. He’d get far more INTs and PDs.

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

All the Highs make sense, but some of the lows have me scratching my head.

 

WTF are the grading Milano on? I caught the re-air of the game last night and Cookie was all over the field making big plays. Also thought JP and Shaq had good games.

 

Classic PFF I guess.

 

Who else stood out, good or bad, to you guys?

 

 

Tough to disagree with anything here on the Offensive side.

 

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

And this, my friend, is why I continue to refuse to take PFF seriously, particularly for low grades.  The high grades are usually obvious to anyone who watched the game.

 

Milano gave up a 100% completion percentage on 3 targets, a 106.9 QBR against and had 3 missed tackles. Statistically, it was his worst game of the season. In addition he made a couple of bad reads on the play. He was still a beast out there, but I can see where the low grade comes from.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MilaMa00/gamelog/2022/advanced/

[Beck Water]

7 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

PFF graders don't understand football. Those positions are out-sourced.

 

No rational disagreement possible.  They clearly don't.

 

But that's not how they market themselves.  It's supposed to be neutral, unbiased, performance-based grading by carefully trained observers

https://www.pff.com/grades

 

Quote

The PFF grading system evaluates every player on every play during a football game. We believe that #EveryPlayCounts and that attention to detail provides insights and data that cannot be found anywhere else. The grading system was founded on the principle of grading “production” rather than traits or measurables, but perhaps a better way to describe it is a player’s “contribution to production” on a given play. 

 

Quote

The benefits of this style of grading are numerous. Taking every play into consideration allows for a larger sample size of data to tell the proper story rather than just a highlight reel of plays that we tend to remember, for better or worse. We also work to eliminate bias by not caring about the level of player who is being graded, so whether it’s the best tackle in the league missing a block or one of the worst, the same grade is given. Preconceived level of ability has no impact on the grading system. This style has worked well in unlocking undervalued gems through the years, while also not being swayed by player hype if it is undeserved.

 

Quote

Each position has its own grading rubric so our analysts know how to put a grade on the various expectations for a quarterback on a 10-yard pass beyond the sticks or what the range of grades might look like for a frontside offensive tackle down blocking on a “power” play. 

There is then an adjustment made to the “raw” grades to adjust for what the player is “expected” to earn given his situation on the field. For instance, a player’s grade may be adjusted down slightly if he plays in a situation that is historically more favorable while a player in more unfavorable circumstances may get an adjustment the other way. We collect over 200 fields of data on each play, and that data helps to determine what the baseline, or expectation, is for each player on every play.

 

Quote

Each grade goes into a specific “facet” of play in order to properly assess each player’s skillset. The facets include passing, rushing, receiving, pass blocking, run blocking, pass-rushing, run defense and coverage. Special teamers also have their own facets of kicking, punting, returning and general special teams play. Facets are important in order to have a clear view of where a player’s strengths and weaknesses lie. 

 

And what they say about their graders:

Quote

WHO IS DOING THE GRADING?

PFF employs over 600 full or part-time analysts, but less than 10% of analysts are trained to the level that they can grade plays. Only the top two to three percent of analysts are on the team of “senior analysts” in charge of finalizing each grade after review. Our graders have been training for months, and sometimes years, in order to learn, understand and show mastery of our process that includes our 300-page training manual and video playbook. We have analysts from all walks of life, including former players, coaches and scouts. We don’t care if you played.

Each grade is reviewed at least once, and usually multiple times, using every camera angle available, including All-22 coaches’ tape.

 

Their assertion is that each grade is reviewed by a group of 12-18 "senior analysts"

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

PFF graders don't understand football. Those positions are out-sourced.

 

Yep. 100%

[Logic]

Isaiah McKenzie has a higher grade than Matt Milano.

That pretty much tells you all you need to know about PFF's grading system.

As someone on Twitter said, there's a reason NFL teams pay them for their raw data but not for their grades/opinions. 

[Ta111]

One, of many, problems with PFF grades is that they have no idea what the responsibility of a player is on a given play and are just guessing. Many of these grades are ridiculous. Please people use your eyes.

[Virgil]

Milano was a stud.  They can go ***** themselves

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Saffold, Brown and Bates are going to be an issue all year. Saffold is just awful and is clearly our weakest olineman.  Spencer has regressed and at times even Q outplays him. 

OL needs to be a priority this off-season. Bates likely isn’t going anywhere, at least next year, given his contract but I wonder if he’ll move back to LG. He seemed serviceable at worst there last year. Either way, Beane needs to address it. 

[HoofHearted]

20 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

No rational disagreement possible.  They clearly don't.

 

But that's not how they market themselves.  It's supposed to be neutral, unbiased, performance-based grading by carefully trained observers

https://www.pff.com/grades

 

 

 

 

 

And what they say about their graders:

 

Their assertion is that each grade is reviewed by a group of 12-18 "senior analysts"

They ran out of hungover college kids to do their manual labor for them so they've out-sourced it to India for a while now.

 

[DrDawkinstein]

52 minutes ago, Process said:

Bates needs to be moved to LG. He was solid there last year. Let Saffold suck at RG or just bench him who cares. 

 

I think there's a chance Q keeps the starting T Jon even when Brown comes back. 

 

Our first four picks in the draft next year needs to look something like OL OL WR OL. 

 

8 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

OL needs to be a priority this off-season. Bates likely isn’t going anywhere, at least next year, given his contract but I wonder if he’ll move back to LG. He seemed serviceable at worst there last year. Either way, Beane needs to address it. 

 

Yeah, we know Beane doesnt mind stacking picks at same/similar positions. So I am looking for a re-do of the Wood/Levitre draft where we go Center/Guard in rounds 1 and 2. And then maybe even back to that well later in draft (the equivalent of Benford to Elam).

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

All the Highs make sense, but some of the lows have me scratching my head.

 

WTF are the grading Milano on? I caught the re-air of the game last night and Cookie was all over the field making big plays. Also thought JP and Shaq had good games.

 

Classic PFF I guess.

 

Who else stood out, good or bad, to you guys?

 

 

Tough to disagree with anything here on the Offensive side.

I disagree with McKenzie. It should be lower. For me, the jury is in. He’s a liability and we’re better off without him. I get it that his speed is a trait opponent’s have to be wary of. But he’s a clutz and can’t be trusted to hold onto the ball.  

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

They ran out of hungover college kids to do their manual labor for them so they've out-sourced it to India for a while now.

 

 

 😂 Figures!  But supposedly, only the "best" of their 600 data analysts grade, so who knows?  😝

[Logic]

Just now, Chandler#81 said:

I disagree with McKenzie. It should be lower. For me, the jury is in. He’s a liability and we’re better off without him. I get it that his speed is a trait opponent’s have to be wary of. But he’s a clutz and can’t be trusted to hold onto the ball.  

So far I've preferred Dorsey's playcalling to Daboll's.

The one thing I want to see brought back from Daboll's playbook were the jet sweep actions to McKenzie. Even when he didn't actually get the ball, his speed and the threat of it forced defenses to have another thing to account for before the snap. A split second of hesitation by a defender before the ball is snapped can make all the difference.

I have advocated for, and will continue to advocate for, Shakir becoming the primary WR3 and starting slot receiver, and McKenzie returning to his WR4/gadget role.

[Gugny]

Just now, Logic said:

So far I've preferred Dorsey's playcalling to Daboll's.

The one thing I want to see brought back from Daboll's playbook were the jet sweep actions to McKenzie. Even when he didn't actually get the ball, his speed and the threat of it forced defenses to have another thing to account for before the snap. A split second of hesitation by a defender before the ball is snapped can make all the difference.

I have advocated for, and will continue to advocate for, Shakir becoming the primary WR3 and starting slot receiver, and McKenzie returning to his WR4/gadget role.

 

This post is filled with Logic.  Totally agree with everything.

[Milanos Milano]

40 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Going back and watching the highlights I focused in on Edmunds and maybe coincidentally they were some of his poorest plays, but an impact defender he was not. What gets me is the same thing that frustrates me most about his career as a coverage LBer - he almost always puts himself in position to make a play, but always seems content to let his assignment catch the ball so he can run and make the tackle. He never jumps routes.
Look at the pass to Kelce right before half, Edmunds runs right up to him and literally waits for him to catch the ball. I’d love to see him drive on the route once he recognizes the open receiver. He’d get far more INTs and PDs.

He’s no Polamalu that’s for sure. I’d kill for someone with those kind of attack aggression skills in a defender. 

[Chandler#81]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

So far I've preferred Dorsey's playcalling to Daboll's.

The one thing I want to see brought back from Daboll's playbook were the jet sweep actions to McKenzie. Even when he didn't actually get the ball, his speed and the threat of it forced defenses to have another thing to account for before the snap. A split second of hesitation by a defender before the ball is snapped can make all the difference.

I have advocated for, and will continue to advocate for, Shakir becoming the primary WR3 and starting slot receiver, and McKenzie returning to his WR4/gadget role.

I’m with you, here. McKenzie had time in grade and was therefore slotted to replace Beasley, but he isn’t up to it and I don’t think he ever will be. Don’t know enough about Shakir, but I like everything I’ve seen to date -including his no nonsense approach. A quiet toughness beats a class clown every time.

[Beck Water]

12 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

I disagree with McKenzie. It should be lower. For me, the jury is in. He’s a liability and we’re better off without him. I get it that his speed is a trait opponent’s have to be wary of. But he’s a clutz and can’t be trusted to hold onto the ball.  

 

What if I told you....Khalil Shakir and James Cook have a much higher drop % (18% and 14%), and that McKenzie has the same drop % as Gabe Davis on exactly the same number of targets (McKenzie has a higher catch % though, to be expected given the routes both run)? 

 

I get it, I get it.  11 of the Twelve Angry Men have spoken. 

 

 

Not saying you were part of it, but only 2 weeks ago the tar was hot and the pitchforks were brandished for Gabe Davis, now he's great!

Edited October 19, 2022 by Beck Water

[BillyBilliams]

I'm assuming Kelce's big game is why Milano was graded so low.  That shouldn't be on him.  But man, that open field tackle he made was elite.  If he doesn't make that tackle, that's 6 points for KC.

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

What if I told you....Khalil Shakir and James Cook have a much higher drop % (18% and 14%), and that McKenzie has the same drop % as Gabe Davis on exactly the same number of targets (McKenzie has a higher catch % though)? 

 

I get it, I get it.  11 of the Twelve Angry Men have spoken. 

 

 

McKenzie is a veteran.  Shakir and Cook are rookies learning to play in the league.  McKenzie is on this team because he's supposed to be reliable.  Him making drive killing mistakes isn't someone you'd think you can rely on.  I expect Cook and Shakir to make those mistakes, not someone that's been here for 5 years.

[Malazan]

Why waste the space on this?

[DrDawkinstein]

50 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Going back and watching the highlights I focused in on Edmunds and maybe coincidentally they were some of his poorest plays, but an impact defender he was not. What gets me is the same thing that frustrates me most about his career as a coverage LBer - he almost always puts himself in position to make a play, but always seems content to let his assignment catch the ball so he can run and make the tackle. He never jumps routes.
Look at the pass to Kelce right before half, Edmunds runs right up to him and literally waits for him to catch the ball. I’d love to see him drive on the route once he recognizes the open receiver. He’d get far more INTs and PDs.

 

I'm a historical Edmunds detractor, but I also understand his assignments.

 

I dont expect him to jump routes per se, because if he does and misses, the receiver is GONE. His job is to keep everything in front of him, give them those short underneath completions as their only option, then make the tackle. The problem before was that he wasnt making that tackle. Now he is. I will give him that. It's huge.

 

Agreed, I wish he would find himself in better position to tip/deflect passes. Given his length and range you would think we'd see more. He has shown improvement in those numbers this year, but they arent quite where Kuechly's numbers were playing the same role in the same scheme.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

What if I told you....Khalil Shakir and James Cook have a much higher drop % (18% and 14%), and that McKenzie has the same drop % as Gabe Davis on exactly the same number of targets (McKenzie has a higher catch % though)? 

 

I get it, I get it.  11 of the Twelve Angry Men have spoken. 

 

 

Your willful blinders on McKenzie's poor performance and lack of reliability given 5 years of data is impressive, I'll give you that.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Malazan said:

Why waste the space on this?

 

Could ask the same about your post.

 

We dont have to agree with the grades, but they are good jump-off points that lead into better discussion. Thanks for contributing!

Edited October 19, 2022 by DrDawkinstein

[HoofHearted]

20 minutes ago, Logic said:

So far I've preferred Dorsey's playcalling to Daboll's.

The one thing I want to see brought back from Daboll's playbook were the jet sweep actions to McKenzie. Even when he didn't actually get the ball, his speed and the threat of it forced defenses to have another thing to account for before the snap. A split second of hesitation by a defender before the ball is snapped can make all the difference.

I have advocated for, and will continue to advocate for, Shakir becoming the primary WR3 and starting slot receiver, and McKenzie returning to his WR4/gadget role.

Problem is we don't see a ton of man coverage - that's where you'll see the most adjustment from a defense vs the jet. NFL backers are too good to be fooled by the eye candy of McKenzie.

[1ManRaid]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

 

exactly.  How is Milano that low?  

 

Probably got dinged hard for that play where he made zero attempt to tackle the receiver who just walked around him for a first down.  Short completion to the left, and Milano (I can only assume) seems to assume they are going out of bounds and just stops, but the receiver cuts upfield within arms reach of Milano while he just stands there.  I was screaming at the TV.

[Beck Water]

42 minutes ago, Logic said:

Isaiah McKenzie has a higher grade than Matt Milano.
That pretty much tells you all you need to know about PFF's grading system.
As someone on Twitter said, there's a reason NFL teams pay them for their raw data but not for their grades/opinions.

 

I See No Lies.

 

McKenzie had an unproductive game, and Milano was a total Beast.

 

Frazier did some unique (to the Bills anyway) things in this game.  He clearly came in with a plan B and a plan C.  Plan B was to pull Milano and run a dime package with Neal.  He did that on a couple plays and the results sucked - a holding call on Neal and that 42 yd reception by TikTok Boy.  So he threw Plan B in the trash, and went to plan C, which was to run dime, keep Milano and Edmunds on the field, and use 3 DLmen (pull a DT I think).

 

Re-reading PFF's description of "how they grade", I think their grading may be a total fail when confronted by relatively unusual schemes or unusual roles and responsibilities within a scheme.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

 

exactly.  How is Milano that low?  

He had a rough first half

 

second half he was lights out 

 

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Elam is going to create some tough decisions when White comes back

[HoofHearted]

3 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Elam is going to create some tough decisions when White comes back

Is he though? He's our least refined corner right now out of Dane, Benford, and him imo.

Edited October 19, 2022 by HoofHearted

[DrDawkinstein]

19 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Elam is going to create some tough decisions when White comes back

 

16 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Is he though? He's our least refined corner right now out of Dane, Benford, and him imo.

 

I dont think its a tough decision either. White and Elam will clearly be our starters when White comes back. Not to take anything away from Benford or even Jackson, but Elam is getting that spot.

[HoofHearted]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

I dont think its a tough decision either. White and Elam will clearly be our starters when White comes back. Not to take anything away from Benford or even Jackson, but Elam is getting that spot.

What makes you say that?

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, HoofHearted said:

What makes you say that?

 

Just what I think the coaches will do.

[mrags]

Neal was not good at all. Whiffed on a tackle for a long TD. It seemed like he Was always in on the coverage as Kelce was catching wide open passes. 
 

and McKenzie needs to be much lower. Is there a single digit score?

[Beck Water]

53 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Your willful blinders on McKenzie's poor performance and lack of reliability given 5 years of data is impressive, I'll give you that.

 

I think I've made my assessment of McKenzie's play clear.  So far, he is not stepping up and "owning" his role as the starting slot as he appeared to do pre-season.  He is a physically limited WR, and assuming Shakir continues to progress, he will earn snaps from McKenzie and eventually start.  Those are almost exact quotes of points I've made in other posts.

 

McK had an unproductive game vs. KC.   Prior to that, he has contributed solidly this year.  65% catch %, 9.5 y/r, 9 1D, and 3 TD while getting 48% of the offensive stats is not "poor performance" for a #3 WR.    What kind of numbers do you think #3 WR on other top passing teams have?  Do they have fumbles or drops?  McKenzie has been on the field for 172 snaps and targeted 27 times.  What is he doing on the other 145 snaps?  Is he running good routes and getting open?  Is he blocking or at least getting in the way of defenders downfield as asked?  I have some answers to that.  Do you know?

 

These aren't points of "willful blindness", they're pretty much objective metrics.  And you can bet your ass that the Bills coaching staff uses them to assess player performance and adjust snaps accordingly.

 

People are irate over the incomplete lateral scored as a "fumble", believing it was an "option" to McKenzie.  Sal C. evaluated it as a fake jet sweep/screen to the L.  Logic dictates you don't design an offensive play with "eye candy" pulling the D to the R, only to pitch to the R - and so far, Dorsey's plays appear solid and logically designed.  Coach McDermott, when specifically asked in his presser, said "you have to understand what we were trying to accomplish there" and put no blame on McK.  Coach has not hesitated to throw McK under the bus in the past when he screwed up.  The logical conclusion is that McDermott did not regard that as an egregious screwup by McKenzie ergo it was not, in fact, a play designed as an option to McKenzie which he F/U.

 

I think we have to leave it as "agree to disagree" because I"m not going to swerve away from logic and data to make it personal, as you appear to desire with your "wilful blinders" crack.  I'll just say that in the past, you've made it clear that you are "down" on McKenzie for reasons that have nothing to do with his play on the field, so perhaps that interferes with your ability to objectively assess him or to evaluate an assessment of him.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Beck Water

[DrDawkinstein]

18 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

I think we have to leave it as "agree to disagree" because I"m not going to swerve away from logic and data to make it personal, as you appear to desire with your "wilful blinders" crack.  I'll just say that in the past, you've made it clear that you are "down" on McKenzie for reasons that have nothing to do with his play on the field, so perhaps that interferes with your ability to objectively assess him or to evaluate an assessment of him.

 

Nothing ever personal, my man. I was just giving you back some snark from your "11 of 12 angry men" line and the pitchfork gif.

 

You seem to get offended by my posts more than others, or take our shooting the ***** too seriously? If we were discussing over beers, we'd be perfectly aligned.

 

Go Bills

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by DrDawkinstein

[BuffaloBill]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

All the Highs make sense, but some of the lows have me scratching my head.

 

WTF are the grading Milano on? I caught the re-air of the game last night and Cookie was all over the field making big plays. Also thought JP and Shaq had good games.

 

Classic PFF I guess.

 

Who else stood out, good or bad, to you guys?

 

 

Tough to disagree with anything here on the Offensive side.

 

 

I know this is PFF but Saffold has been a disappointment this year. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

33 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

I dont think its a tough decision either. White and Elam will clearly be our starters when White comes back. Not to take anything away from Benford or even Jackson, but Elam is getting that spot.

Jackson is really good

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Jackson is really good

 

Not saying he or Benford arent playing well. I just think the coaches' choice is pretty clear. Unless Elam's performance falls off a cliff, they'll have him in there because they want him in there. Now, McD and crew are usually good about playing the better performers, but I dont think there is that much difference to warrant a change of plan at this point.

[hemma]

This team is already amazing.

Will need new superlatives when Tre is back and in stride.

[HappyDays]

PFF has admitted that they only grade coverage players on plays where the ball comes their way. Any snap where the coverage play isn't involved they get a neutral grade. So if you're Milano spying the QB and sometimes covering Kelce your PFF grade is not going to reflect your performance. It's a pointless grading system with very little merit.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

So far I've preferred Dorsey's playcalling to Daboll's.

 

Agree

 

1 hour ago, Logic said:

The one thing I want to see brought back from Daboll's playbook were the jet sweep actions to McKenzie. Even when he didn't actually get the ball, his speed and the threat of it forced defenses to have another thing to account for before the snap. A split second of hesitation by a defender before the ball is snapped can make all the difference.

I have advocated for, and will continue to advocate for, Shakir becoming the primary WR3 and starting slot receiver, and McKenzie returning to his WR4/gadget role.

 

Shakir, if he continues to develop as he seems to be, will become the primary WR3.  But I don't think we'll see McKenzie thrown to the curb in favor of Shakir taking over as some folks advocate unless he does commit what McD regards as a benchable mistake. I could be wrong, of course.  We'll see Shakir active every week, splitting snaps, as Crowder did.  We'll see the division of snaps fluctuate week to week depending on how teams are defending us, and we'll see Shakir's share grow.

 

On the jet sweep/reverse/gadget plays: In addition to the man vs zone coverage aspect @HoofHearted alluded to, the problem with McKenzie in the "gadget" role is, if that's his primary role defenses key on it when he's on the field and it's blown up.  That was the reason these plays declined in effectiveness at the end of 2019.  They had to get McKenzie running routes at least half the time to make them effective, and in 2020 he was a pretty clear downgrade from Beasley there.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Beck Water

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

What if I told you....Khalil Shakir and James Cook have a much higher drop % (18% and 14%), and that McKenzie has the same drop % as Gabe Davis on exactly the same number of targets (McKenzie has a higher catch % though, to be expected given the routes both run)? 

 

I get it, I get it.  11 of the Twelve Angry Men have spoken. 

 

 

Not saying you were part of it, but only 2 weeks ago the tar was hot and the pitchforks were brandished for Gabe Davis, now he's great!

We’ve had this battle numerous times, Beck. Of course you score points with facts, but Lil Dummy doesn’t ever pass the eye test and his errors are numerous and disastrous! That he’s ever the walking clown show does nothing to improve or overcome his short, shortcomings.

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Nothing ever personal, my man. I was just giving you back some snark from your "11 of 12 angry men" line and the pitchfork gif.

 

The "11 of 12 angry men" was a reference to Chandler's line about the jury's verdict being in.  Perhaps you're too young for the classic film "12 Angry Men" about a jury?

 

23 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

You seem to get offended by my posts more than others, or take our shooting the ***** too seriously? If we were discussing over beers, we'd be perfectly aligned.

 

LOL I'm not offended, and I'm sure we'd have a good chat over beer.  But I don't think you're able to assess McKenzie's on-field performance very objectively.  So we'll have to agree to disagree there.

 

6 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

We’ve had this battle numerous times, Beck. Of course you score points with facts, but Lil Dummy doesn’t ever pass the eye test and his errors are numerous and disastrous! That he’s ever the walking clown show does nothing to improve or overcome his short, shortcomings.

 

Fair enough on the "eye test".  "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder" I guess.  McKenzie ain't beautiful, but he has been contributing steadily.

 

I have high hopes for Shakir, I know we agree on that.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Beck Water