Four Weeks into the NFL Season, and it still remains a "Prove It" league

[Virgil]

Whether you are a fantasy owner, just love watching football, or whatever your involvement is with the sport, this is has been one of the strangest starts to the season in recent memory.  There were so many off-season changes to teams rosters, that speculation was rampant regarding who the contenders, pretenders, and draft-waiters would be.  For whatever it's worth, here's my random thoughts on the league so far:

 

• Broncos - Are they not the biggest disappointment of the season?  On paper, this team should be 4-0 and owning the division (minus another under-performing team).  They have all the weapons they could need on both sides of the ball.  With their performance, you have to wonder?
  • Was Carroll onto something in Seatlle when trying to move on from Russ all these years?
  • Was Hackett only as good as Aaron Rodgers made him look in GB
• Colts - With the Titans losing AJ Brown, the Colts seemed like the sure pick to win their division.  Matt Ryan couldn't be worse than Wentz, but maybe not much better.  So far, JT has been completely shut down in half his game, Pittman is the only weapon on offense, and their only real victory was the upset win over the Chiefs (thank you btw).  On some of the talk radio shows I listen to, there's a lot of talk about Frank and the GM being one of the first duo's fired, possibly in season.  If Matt Ryan retires, doesn't it sound like the perfect place for mediocre Jimmy G to play mediocre games?
• Eagles - While the Dolphins were out rebuilding their team, it feels like the Eagles slipped under the radar while coping a very similar blue-print.  The difference is, the Eagles are much more successful at it.  I haven't been able to see them play yet, but the Eagles look like the NFC favorite at the moment and are dominating everyone. 
• Dolphins - I said this before the season, their roster is scary and Tua is the only question mark.  4 weeks in, I think the head coach deserves a ton of credit as I believe he runs a great offensive scheme that really caters to his teams strengths.  However, we all know that teams adjust to schemes midway through the season, and I'm very curious to see how the Dolphins handle that.  I'm not positive that Teddy won't be as good running that offense as Tua.  Moreso, Tua feels like Brady to me in his first few seasons, in that he's being put in a position to win, but clearly has arm talent issues.  I'm not saying Tua will turn into Brady, far from it, but I think his success right now is more about the team around him, and not his play itself.
• Lions - Where the hell did this come from?  Yes, their record isn't great, but they are putting on an absolute show on offense.  Even more so, they did it in week 4 without Swift and St Brown.  This is Goff running the show too!  I don't even understand it, but it's fun to root for them.   Like the Bengals, I feel a certain sense of empathy for that team as they know misery.
• Rams - Is there a bigger offseason acquisition disappointment than Allen Robinson?  It makes no sense how little he is being used.  With his size and speed, plus everyone focusing on Kupp, how is Robinson not going off?  Also, I said acquisition, because I didn't forget about Akers.  What the hell is going on there?  Fantasy owners are jumping off cliffs left and right.  Also, does McVay officially have to refer to Shanahan as "Daddy" going forward?
• Patriots - Nothing surprising, it just feels good to watch it burn and know they spent a ton of money in FA to suck
• Vikings - At this point, Cousins is Tyrod to me.  Good guy, can have some good games, but there's just a limit to what he can do and he's fools gold out there.  In an offense where Justin Jefferson can get 150 yards per game with his eyes closed, it makes no sense how this offense isn't better than it is.  We all know finding a solid starting QB is hard, but Cousins has proven he's all he will ever be
• Packers - Watching a receiver drop at least one touchdown a game feels therapeutic.  Rodgers has proven to be both a Diva and "me" guy.  He got his 50 mil, but at the expense of having any receivers.  Good, just good.
• Ravens - I'm going to eat crow and say that Lamar has developed into a better passer than I thought he ever would be.  However, he's also proven to be a bit of a fraud on a personal level.  All of his off-season comments about his contract wishes and wanting to be a team guy burnt up as soon as we found out he wants guaranteed money in the Watson range.  Listen, there's so many "me first" guys in the league that you can't fault them anymore.  Plus, if you don't get hurt or start to fall of a cliff like Wentz, all QB's deals end up being guaranteed anyways because you aren't getting cut or traded.  I get why the Ravens were hesitant with his contract, especially with his injury, but I think they only have two choices at this point, assuming Lamar doesn't fall off a cliff.  You either need to cave and give him the money, or trade him this off-season team who is stupid like the Browns and willing to give up capitol and money.  The difference is, Lamar isn't facing suspension, so someone will do it.  The Ravens can't afford to franchise him two seasons in a row, so they need to decide what they are willing to do this off-season and run with it.  I fear that Lamar will end up in a Rodgers situation though, where the Ravens pay him and then can't pay anyone else around him, so he's stuck in playoff-making-only purgatory. 
• Cardinals - Well, Kyler got his money and they still can't score in the first half.  I have to wonder how much of a leash that HC is going to get.  More so, if the coach leaves, I wonder how Kyler handles someone else coming in.  We've seen how mature he's handled his contract situation, so I'm sure he's a super team player.  With the contracts they've given out, I could see some serious turmoil and dumpster fire issues in Arizona in the upcoming off-season
• Giants - I had a gut feeling that Barkley would bounce back this year and I'm kicking myself for not acting on it during fantasy drafts.  It's interesting to see what traits Daboll brought with him from McD.  I love that he's not caving to Kenny or Toney, and playing the guys who earn it.  I haven't heard much, but I have to assume that is doing wonders for his buy-in in the locker room.  Give them two seasons, and I think the Giants and Eagles will be running that division.
• Chiefs - Everyone was ready to write them off this off-season.  They lost hill, brought in some lesser talent replacement options, all while the rest of their division got so much better.  Then we remembered they have Mahomes and Reid.  Minus one head scratching loss to the Colts, the Chiefs are finding new ways to score point and doing it in a much more proficient ways.  Everyone is getting involved, at the behest of fantasy owners, and they still look like the top team to beat in the division and for the 1 seed.  Like the last 10 years with Brady, never count the winners out until they've proven to lose.
• Raiders - Offensive genius head coach, Elite capable QB, Elite WR, and solid roster depth on both sides of the ball.  Results, 0-3 start.  Again, it's all good on paper until you have to prove it

 

Well, that was a lot.  No real point.  Just talkin here

Edited October 5, 2022 by Virgil

[Airseven]

My thought is that the league is vastly mediocre with a couple elite teams and a couple awful teams. End result is that games are difficult to predict and parity rules the day. 

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Broncos: Yes Carroll was onto something..and Hackett? The head coach needs a head coach…enough said….

[hemma]

The Lions lead the NFL in scoring.  

This has me believing in aliens.

[jethro_tull]

33 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Whether you are a fantasy owner, just love watching football, or whatever your involvement is with the sport, this is has been one of the strangest starts to the season in recent memory.  There were so many off-season changes to teams rosters, that speculation was rampant regarding who the contenders, pretenders, and draft-waiters would be.  For whatever it's worth, here's my random thoughts on the league so far:

 

• Broncos - Are they not the biggest disappointment of the season?  On paper, this team should be 4-0 and owning the division (minus another under-performing team).  They have all the weapons they could need on both sides of the ball.  With their performance, you have to wonder?
  • Was Carroll onto something in Seatlle when trying to move on from Russ all these years?
  • Was Hackett only as good as Aaron Rodgers made him look in GB
• Colts - With the Titans losing AJ Brown, the Colts seemed like the sure pick to win their division.  Matt Ryan couldn't be worse than Wentz, but maybe not much better.  So far, JT has been completely shut down in half his game, Pittman is the only weapon on offense, and their only real victory was the upset win over the Chiefs (thank you btw).  On some of the talk radio shows I listen to, there's a lot of talk about Frank and the GM being one of the first duo's fired, possibly in season.  If Matt Ryan retires, doesn't it sound like the perfect place for mediocre Jimmy G to play mediocre games?
• Eagles - While the Dolphins were out rebuilding their team, it feels like the Eagles slipped under the radar while coping a very similar blue-print.  The difference is, the Eagles are much more successful at it.  I haven't been able to see them play yet, but the Eagles look like the NFC favorite at the moment and are dominating everyone. 
• Dolphins - I said this before the season, their roster is scary and Tua is the only question mark.  4 weeks in, I think the head coach deserves a ton of credit as I believe he runs a great offensive scheme that really caters to his teams strengths.  However, we all know that teams adjust to schemes midway through the season, and I'm very curious to see how the Dolphins handle that.  I'm not positive that Teddy won't be as good running that offense as Tua.  Moreso, Tua feels like Brady to me in his first few seasons, in that he's being put in a position to win, but clearly has arm talent issues.  I'm not saying Tua will turn into Brady, far from it, but I think his success right now is more about the team around him, and not his play itself.
• Lions - Where the hell did this come from?  Yes, their record isn't great, but they are putting on an absolute show on offense.  Even more so, they did it in week 4 without Swift and St Brown.  This is Goff running the show too!  I don't even understand it, but it's fun to root for them.   Like the Bengals, I feel a certain sense of empathy for that team as they know misery.
• Rams - Is there a bigger offseason acquisition disappointment than Allen Robinson?  It makes no sense how little he is being used.  With his size and speed, plus everyone focusing on Kupp, how is Robinson not going off?  Also, I said acquisition, because I didn't forget about Akers.  What the hell is going on there?  Fantasy owners are jumping off cliffs left and right.  Also, does McVay officially have to refer to Shanahan as "Daddy" going forward?
• Patriots - Nothing surprising, it just feels good to watch it burn and know they spent a ton of money in FA to suck
• Vikings - At this point, Cousins is Tyrod to me.  Good guy, can have some good games, but there's just a limit to what he can do and he's fools gold out there.  In an offense where Justin Jefferson can get 150 yards per game with his eyes closed, it makes no sense how this offense isn't better than it is.  We all know finding a solid starting QB is hard, but Cousins has proven he's all he will ever be
• Packers - Watching a receiver drop at least one touchdown a game feels therapeutic.  Rodgers has proven to be both a Diva and "me" guy.  He got his 50 mil, but at the expense of having any receivers.  Good, just good.
• Ravens - I'm going to eat crow and say that Lamar has developed into a better passer than I thought he ever would be.  However, he's also proven to be a bit of a fraud on a personal level.  All of his off-season comments about his contract wishes and wanting to be a team guy burnt up as soon as we found out he wants guaranteed money in the Watson range.  Listen, there's so many "me first" guys in the league that you can't fault them anymore.  Plus, if you don't get hurt or start to fall of a cliff like Wentz, all QB's deals end up being guaranteed anyways because you aren't getting cut or traded.  I get why the Ravens were hesitant with his contract, especially with his injury, but I think they only have two choices at this point, assuming Lamar doesn't fall off a cliff.  You either need to cave and give him the money, or trade him this off-season team who is stupid like the Browns and willing to give up capitol and money.  The difference is, Lamar isn't facing suspension, so someone will do it.  The Ravens can't afford to franchise him two seasons in a row, so they need to decide what they are willing to do this off-season and run with it.  I fear that Lamar will end up in a Rodgers situation though, where the Ravens pay him and then can't pay anyone else around him, so he's stuck in playoff-making-only purgatory. 
• Cardinals - Well, Kyler got his money and they still can't score in the first half.  I have to wonder how much of a leash that HC is going to get.  More so, if the coach leaves, I wonder how Kyler handles someone else coming in.  We've seen how mature he's handled his contract situation, so I'm sure he's a super team player.  With the contracts they've given out, I could see some serious turmoil and dumpster fire issues in Arizona in the upcoming off-season
• Giants - I had a gut feeling that Barkley would bounce back this year and I'm kicking myself for not acting on it during fantasy drafts.  It's interesting to see what traits Daboll brought with him from McD.  I love that he's not caving to Kenny or Toney, and playing the guys who earn it.  I haven't heard much, but I have to assume that is doing wonders for his buy-in in the locker room.  Give them two seasons, and I think the Giants and Eagles will be running that division.
• Chiefs - Everyone was ready to write them off this off-season.  They lost hill, brought in some lesser talent replacement options, all while the rest of their division got so much better.  Then we remembered they have Mahomes and Reid.  Minus one head scratching loss to the Colts, the Chiefs are finding new ways to score point and doing it in a much more proficient ways.  Everyone is getting involved, at the behest of fantasy owners, and they still look like the top team to beat in the division and for the 1 seed.  Like the last 10 years with Brady, never count the winners out until they've proven to lose.
• Raiders - Offensive genius head coach, Elite capable QB, Elite WR, and solid roster depth on both sides of the ball.  Results, 0-3 start.  Again, it's all good on paper until you have to prove it

 

Well, that was a lot.  No real point.  Just talkin here

yes but there is one team conspicuously absent from your list !  what are your thoughts?  

[Virgil]

3 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

yes but there is one team conspicuously absent from your list !  what are your thoughts?  

I’ll be honest, this thing got a mind of its own and I blanked out.  I have no idea who you mean.  

[Draconator]

So much has been said about Detroit, but to me the biggest surprise is Jacksonville. They're a solid team and will more than likely improve to at least .500 this year.

[Virgil]

Just now, Draconator said:

So much has been said about Detroit, but to me the biggest surprise is Jacksonville. They're a solid team and will more than likely improve to at least .500 this year.

I wanted to include them, but I have no idea what’s going on there.  I know there roster is better, and they destroy led the Chargers, but I don’t know why?

 

Is TLaw figuring it out?   Is it coaching?  Favorable schedule?  All of the above?

[Mr. WEO]

The Broncos were supposed to "own" what was preseason felt to be the toughest division in the NFL?  lol wtf?

 

The Raiders are the massive surprise in that division this season so far.

[Draconator]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I wanted to include them, but I have no idea what’s going on there.  I know there roster is better, and they destroy led the Chargers, but I don’t know why?

 

Is TLaw figuring it out?   Is it coaching?  Favorable schedule?  All of the above?

I think Pederson is coaching to their strengths, which is working. 

[GoBills808]

56 minutes ago, hemma said:

The Lions lead the NFL in scoring.  

This has me believing in aliens.

They have the highest offensive payroll in the league fwiw 

[Low Positive]

Nobody seems to realise that the Chiefs and Bills have had the exact same start to the season. Two blow out wins, a close win and a road loss. They have played in absolutely perfect conditions in every game too. No wind, no rain, and two dome games. That’s not an excuse for wins and losses, but it does explain the Bills less than great offensive stats last Sunday. Remember how the Bills looked in perfect conditions? 

[Virgil]

Just now, FrenchConnection said:

Nobody seems to realise that the Chiefs and Bills have had the exact same start to the season. Two blow out wins, a close win and a road loss. They have played in absolutely perfect conditions in every game too. No wind, no rain, and two dome games. That’s not an excuse for wins and losses, but it does explain the Bills less than great offensive stats last Sunday. Remember how the Bills looked in perfect conditions? 

The Bills played in perfect conditions all four games?  Did I read that right?

[Draconator]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection said:

Nobody seems to realise that the Chiefs and Bills have had the exact same start to the season. Two blow out wins, a close win and a road loss. They have played in absolutely perfect conditions in every game too. No wind, no rain, and two dome games. That’s not an excuse for wins and losses, but it does explain the Bills less than great offensive stats last Sunday. Remember how the Bills looked in perfect conditions? 

And healthy

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

The Bills played in perfect conditions all four games?  Did I read that right?

The Chiefs have played in perfect conditions

[Utah John]

I think the team not mentioned that should have been, is the Chargers.  I think half the preseason predictions were that the Chargers would prevail in a very tough AFCW.  Well, no and no.  

[US Egg]

5 hours ago, Airseven said:

My thought is that the league is vastly mediocre with a couple elite teams and a couple awful teams. End result is that games are difficult to predict and parity rules the day. 

Buzz killer.

[Virgil]

8 hours ago, Utah John said:

I think the team not mentioned that should have been, is the Chargers.  I think half the preseason predictions were that the Chargers would prevail in a very tough AFCW.  Well, no and no.  

I don’t find their record surprising considering the injuries to Allen and Herbert.  That rib injury could affect him all season.  
 

I was focusing on teams that underperform based upon expectations, not injuries 

[Royale with Cheese]

Russell Wilson is going to sink the Broncos franchise. 

[JerseyBills]

Regarding the Colts - their owner publicly said Reich and their GM is on a short leash.

As well as Ryan.

They're a very talented team overall,  just terrible QB play

[Low Positive]

Just now, JerseyBills said:

Regarding the Colts - their owner publicly said Reich and their GM is on a short leash.

As well as Ryan.

They're a very talented team overall,  just terrible QB play

You can’t just keep going and grabbing other teams castoff and expecting that to work. At some point they’re going to have to bite the bullet and draft a QB.

[JerseyBills]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection said:

You can’t just keep going and grabbing other teams castoff and expecting that to work. At some point they’re going to have to bite the bullet and draft a QB.

Absolutely.  Lucky for us they don't have Andrew Luck with this roster. They'd likely be a juggernaut in the AFC , right up there with Bills and Chiefs

[julian]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

I don’t find their record surprising considering the injuries to Allen and Herbert.  That rib injury could affect him all season.  
 

I was focusing on teams that underperform based upon expectations, not injuries 

IMHO you’re being generous with the injuries reasoning for the Chargers, they always find a way to underperform and this year they’re also dealing with injuries.

 

[Jauronimo]

17 hours ago, hemma said:

The Lions lead the NFL in scoring.  

This has me believing in aliens.

The Lions are also the worst defense in the league.  Historically bad.

[Nextmanup]

17 hours ago, Airseven said:

My thought is that the league is vastly mediocre with a couple elite teams and a couple awful teams. End result is that games are difficult to predict and parity rules the day. 

I would phrase it in a slightly different way.

 

What do ALL NFL rosters have in common?  They are all FILLED with athletic super-freaks who were college football phenoms, at least for the most part.

 

The actual talent gap from player to player, roster to roster, and team to team is not that great, because it can't be.

 

At the very very tip of the totem pole, there is only so much room for "good, better, best."  It's all about the same.

 

Most games are decided by 3 or 4 or 5 key plays, in which 1 team did something WRONG...not who did what right.

 

This is the parity they used to talk about dreaming of in the 1980s and 1990s.

 

It is what it is, and it's not going back to the old days.

 

 

[Lost]

Big surprise to me so far this season is the Dallas Cowboys.  That team always managed to choke with Prescott at QB.  All of a sudden he goes down and now they're stringing wins with Cooper Rush.  

[uninja]

18 hours ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

Broncos: Yes Carroll was onto something..and Hackett? The head coach needs a head coach…enough said….

Hackett is just the new Adam Gase. 

[Big Turk]

The Broncos are hamstrung by an inept Head Coach.  You know, sometimes it might take a while when you see someone take over to decide if they are actually good or not, like you say "Yeah...I mean they are able to beat the hell out of bad teams, but can't seem to win important games", or "I dunno...seems like he doesn't make good decisions during games and doesn't challenge plays smartly", but when you see someone who is just awful and you know just "doesn't have it", I think you know right away.  And Nathaniel Hackett is that guy for me...dude just doesn't have it to be a head coach...he is just in way, way over his head right now.

 

He basically was handed the keys to a Lamborghini and keeps totaling the car...needed to be handed the keys to a 300 dollar beat up junker to learn how to drive first.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Big Turk

[Low Positive]

10 minutes ago, Lost said:

Big surprise to me so far this season is the Dallas Cowboys.  That team always managed to choke with Prescott at QB.  All of a sudden he goes down and now they're stringing wins with Cooper Rush.  

The Dallas pass rush is nasty.

31 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

The Lions are also the worst defense in the league.  Historically bad.

Therefore they are the most fun team to watch in the NFL right now. Points will be scored.

[Jauronimo]

The NFL makes no sense week to week particularly so in the first half of the season.  Its November and December when we really find out who teams are.  

 

My predictions on the season:

 

1. Green Bay will get it sorted on offense and look like a favorite in December priming them for another playoff collapse

2. Tampa will get going on offense but will still lack explosiveness behind a patchwork OL. 

3. Philly might not get tested until January with their cupcake schedule.  

4. Minnesota will remain epically mediocre but make the playoffs this time

5. San Fran is the same as they were last year but playing in a weaker conference.  They're a threat

6. The Rams are taking a big step back and I don't think they're returning to form late in the season.  Any given week they can win but don't bet on it.

7. I dont care about Dallas.  

8. Atlanta is a fun story but their time is running out. 

 

1. Buffalo will abandon the zone run scheme again late in the year and suddenly gel on offense.  We will play KC again in January for the right to go to the Super Bowl

2. KC will have some ups and downs and lose some divisional games they should have won.  When it matters most, they will play their A game.  They are the best team in the NFL today.

3. Dolphins will still be in the conversation for the division late in the year setting them up for a crushing defeat in Buffalo and wild card round loss.

4. The AFC South race will go down to the wire but none of these teams are contenders.

5.  Its still anyone's race for 2nd place in the AFC West.  Denver will not be this offensively inept all year without Hackett losing his job mid season.  You cannot count on Chargers or Raiders week to week.

6. The Bengals are getting it together but Burrow takes far too many sacks and much of it is his fault.  Welcome to two high safeties, the vanilla scheme that grounded Allen and Mahomes last year.  Unless he can be patient and take whats there, the Bungles may miss the playoffs.

7. Baltimore is who they always are. A tough out but not built to win a super bowl with a weaker defense and unreliable passing game.

8. The Browns are surviving the Brissett stretch and are the true wildcard once Watson is back.  Its been a long time since he played an NFL game.  Early season losses plus convict related rust will be too much for Cleveland and they will miss out on the postseason.

 

[AuntieEm]

 

 

 

4 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

You can’t just keep going and grabbing other teams castoff and expecting that to work. At some point they’re going to have to bite the bullet and draft a QB.

 

  Maybe they don't deserve another good quarterback until they learn how to protect them better.  Peyton took a beating over the years despite having a quick release and elite skill reading defenses.  Luck was beaten up to the point he didn't enjoy playing anymore. 

 

  Would any Bills fan argue that part of the reason Josh improved so well is he still loves playing the game.  Once it becomes just his job, I hope it's after numerous SB rings with the Bills and he decides he prefers to focus on his family, farm and the Patricia Allen Foundation and walks away healthy and satisfied with his career.  

[billsfan89]

18 hours ago, hemma said:

The Lions lead the NFL in scoring.  

This has me believing in aliens.

To be fair the Lions had a lot of garbage time scores…

[Virgil]

2 hours ago, julian said:

IMHO you’re being generous with the injuries reasoning for the Chargers, they always find a way to underperform and this year they’re also dealing with injuries.

 

I think that, if any team lost their #1 receiver and their top tier talented WB was operating at 50%, that team would be struggling. 

[julian]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

I think that, if any team lost their #1 receiver and their top tier talented WB was operating at 50%, that team would be struggling. 

50% ? I guess we’ll agree to disagree .. I guess this year they luck out with the injury excuse, oh well

[BuffaloBill]

It seems like, maybe not factual, that injuries are up across the league this year.  Obviously, the Bills are in this mix with perhaps the most concerning situation being WR’s with Defensive backfield being a close second.