Matt_In_NH Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 What I believe is important is not “balance” but doing enough of both passing and running effectively that the defense must prepare for and defend both. But passing plays should far outweigh rushing plays. One thing we probably won’t see this year under Dorsey is 9 rushing plays from rbs and 18 straight passes and that is a good thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 6 hours ago, Beck Water said: I think this is an example of "correlation is not causation" Teams that are leading on the scoreboard, tend to run the ball if they can to eat clock Teams that are behind on the scoreboard, tend to sling it to try to score more points more quickly Not in all cases. Think of teams like the Titans, Ravens, Pats. They were more run heavy teams with good records. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybob71 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 I know you need balance on O but after all the boring QBs and limited offenses we have had to watch the past 20 plus, as a fan i wanna see the ball in Josh's hands as much as possible, just so fun to watch. And after sitting through alot of brutal games ( most of us prob haven't missed a game in years) we deserve to have one of the most exciting players in all of sports. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiMark Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 If you have a big lead, and you run out the clock, you will win 100% of those games. So how do you get those big leads? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, HiMark said: If you have a big lead, and you run out the clock, you will win 100% of those games. So how do you get those big leads? And do you take out your starting RB with the big lead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 (edited) I thought Bill Walsh settled this argument in the 1980's. This is statistics so there are always exceptions. It's like using the 90 year old pack a day smoker to say that smoking isn't unhealthy. So pointing out exceptions is not a valid argument by itself -- you need to look at reasonably large numbers. Here is the rushing yards rankings for the 14 playoff teams last year. Some takeaways. 3 out of the top 4 rushing teams did not make the playoffs. The teams in the Super Bowl finished 23 and 25th in rushing. Half of the playoff teams ranked in the bottom half in rushing. A really good running game guarantees you about 8 wins (see Ryan, Rex). 1. PHI 5. TENN 6. BUFF (obviously a lot of that is Josh Allen) 8. NE 9. DAL 10. ARI 16. KC 18. GB 21. LAC 23. CIN 25. LAR 26. TB 28. LV 29. PITT For comparison, here are the passing rankings. Takeaways: The top 10 passing teams all made the playoffs. 12 out of the 14 playoff teams finished in the top half passing The five lowest ranked playoff passing teams did not win a single playoff game. You won't get far in the playoffs without a very good passing game unless you have both a top rushing game and a dominant defense (see 2019 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo). 1. TB 2. DAL 3. LAC 4. KC 5. LAR 6. LV 7. CIN 8. GB 9. BUF 10. ARI 14. NE 15. PITT 24. TENN 25. PHI Edited September 6, 2022 by Billy Claude 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 No brainer. Why Marino or Fouts never won a SuperBowl. Bills came close in XXV... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCofNC Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 9 hours ago, Rampage said: If you run the ball successfully you control the time of possession. The other team has less time to score whereas you have more time to score. Seems pretty cut and dry to me. I think this plays a major factor in it. The best defense is one that’s not on the field. If you have sustained 7-10 minute drives, you cut the game way down for the other team. Give Josh Allen 4 possessions to throw all he wants, the best he can do is be perfect and score 32 on you. Give him 8 possessions and you’re giving room for error and many more scoring opportunities. Control the clock, control the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 10 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said: This is why a metric like DVOA is more useful than yardage - it’s impossible to tell what’s driving that data without understanding the context (down, distance, strength of opponent and game situation). Also those are all pretty good winning correlations. I just opened this thread now, and that was exactly my thoughts. Yardage is fun to look at when you see the Bills ranked 6th in rushing, but only 9th in passing. The key is the overall was 3rd in pts., and 5th in overall yards. DVOA makes much more sense. I do want to see a more effective running game, but I just mean when they decide to run with everyone not named Allen. I’m hopeful Allen keeps his running in his back pocket until the Chiefs and Packers. Anyone who has eyes knows we had an effective passing game last year, but still we only ranked 9th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Since1981 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 8 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said: Eagles -3rd rushing; 13th passing Patriots - 5th rushing; 9th passing Chiefs - 23rd rushing; 4th passing Tampa - 29th rushing; 4th passing Rams - 25th rushing; 5th passing I like this kind of fact group better than raw X yards. More representative of the nuance that an effective run game is useful but a bottom 15 pass team won’t reliably win in 2022. I agree too, our QB can’t be a 700 yd rusher. Bad for his and our future 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 This is an oversimplification, but you pass to score points and run to keep defenses honest. The most important aspect of a good run game is to prevent defenses from keying on the pass, and then to eat clock at the end of games. You don’t consistently win in the NFL being one-dimensional. Teams that completely ignore the run game do not win championships. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 10 hours ago, Big Blitz said: All true which is what made our first 13 games last year so baffling. Plus, the defense was playing that 2 deep shell begging us to run. So maybe it was Daboll. Maybe it was the oline. Maybe it took 13 games to figure this out or all of it. One of the reasons that I believe our offense will be better under Ken Dorsey. It wasn't until the final quarter of the year that we managed to develop a running game. Part of it was the O-Line blocking better. Part of it was Josh Allen taking off more often. Part of it was Daboll just being willing to focus on establishing the ground game. At no point did we suddenly become a "running" team. But once defenses knew we could actually move the ball on the ground, the entire offense became pretty much unstoppable. All it really took was the threat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 11 hours ago, Big Blitz said: ^^^ No you don't build a ground n pound O. You just better not neglect your ability to run Didnt the Colts have all-world Taylor at RB, a decent defense, and still miss the playoffs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, bobobonators said: Didnt the Colts have all-world Taylor at RB, a decent defense, and still miss the playoffs? Yes. It’s a terrible take that has been debunked carefully and systematically in this thread, but don’t expect the OP to change his mind. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 (edited) 36 minutes ago, bobobonators said: Didnt the Colts have all-world Taylor at RB, a decent defense, and still miss the playoffs? I think you are missing two points . One the OP did say that in his opinion the article doesn't mean you just build a team running team. Instead, it seems to highlight you cannot overlook the importance of a run game. The article itself basically just shows that getting to the 100 yard rushing milestone tends to equate to higher chance of winning compared to having a 100 yard receiver or a 300 yard passer. Also, as other posters in thread have said, the Bills themselves didn't do so hot when the offense was heavily shifted towards passing. The offense really took off when they were able to present a decent semblance of a run game. Edited September 6, 2022 by prissythecat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, prissythecat said: I think you are missing two points . One the OP did say that in his opinion the article doesn't mean you just build a team running team. Instead, it seems to highlight you cannot overlook the importance of a run game. The article itself basically just shows that getting to the 100 yard rushing milestone tends to equate to higher chance of winning compared to having a 100 yard receiver or a 300 yard passer. Also, as other posters in thread have said, the Bills themselves didn't do so hot when the offense was heavily shifted towards passing. The offense really took off when they were able to present a decent semblance of a run game. Again, the issue is how you measure a successful running game. A 100 yard rusher tells you almost nothing - how many carries did it take? What about teams with over 100 yards rushing in a game using multiple runners? What percentage of the runs resulted in a first down or were otherwise better than average against that opponent in that down and distance? You need to measure the efficacy and efficiency of the running game - pointing to a single 100 yard rusher as correlating with winning percentages is a nearly useless stat. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 What's the winning% of teams that never punt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said: Again, the issue is how you measure a successful running game. A 100 yard rusher tells you almost nothing - how many carries did it take? What about teams with over 100 yards rushing in a game using multiple runners? What percentage of the runs resulted in a first down or were otherwise better than average against that opponent in that down and distance? You need to measure the efficacy and efficiency of the running game - pointing to a single 100 yard rusher as correlating with winning percentages is a nearly useless stat. Also, 300 yards isn't the accomplishment that it used to be. Would the stats be WAY different if they used 350 yards instead? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said: Also, 300 yards isn't the accomplishment that it used to be. Would the stats be WAY different if they used 350 yards instead? Yup. Nor do we know whether the OP's stat is including games where the losing team ALSO had a 100 yard rusher, and if it is, whether it should be included (I'm not sure). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said: Also, 300 yards isn't the accomplishment that it used to be. Would the stats be WAY different if they used 350 yards instead? Highly doubtful 350 would give much different results than 300. As noted numerous times in this thread, teams throw a lot because they are behind. A really big passing game is not indicative of a team winning. It would be better to look at just first half stats which presumably would not be affected as much by the game score. I am not sure how one can extract those. The fallacy is to use the correlation between 100 yards rushing and winning to conclude that a lot of running yards lead to winning so a team should emphasize building a good running game. Actually it is winning that leads to a lot of running yards, i.e., the cause and effect is reversed. Edited September 6, 2022 by Billy Claude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 27 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said: What's the winning% of teams that never punt? Are they not punting because Josh Allen is the QB or Nate Peterman 🤣 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, prissythecat said: I think you are missing two points . One the OP did say that in his opinion the article doesn't mean you just build a team running team. Instead, it seems to highlight you cannot overlook the importance of a run game. The article itself basically just shows that getting to the 100 yard rushing milestone tends to equate to higher chance of winning compared to having a 100 yard receiver or a 300 yard passer. Also, as other posters in thread have said, the Bills themselves didn't do so hot when the offense was heavily shifted towards passing. The offense really took off when they were able to present a decent semblance of a run game. And as others have pointed out that number is actually trending in the other direction. You go back 5 years the game was much more heavily in favour of the 100 yard runner. This is the NFL in 2022. You pass to score. You pass to win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: And as others have pointed out that number is actually trending in the other direction. You go back 5 years the game was much more heavily in favour of the 100 yard runner. This is the NFL in 2022. You pass to score. You pass to win. Think need the run game to keep defense honest having to be prepared to stop the run. Otherwise team's go into Tampa 2 or cover 2 shell in order to stop the pass. Keeping the defense honest is might be best answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 (edited) 53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: And as others have pointed out that number is actually trending in the other direction. You go back 5 years the game was much more heavily in favour of the 100 yard runner. This is the NFL in 2022. You pass to score. You pass to win. What happened last season when the Bills faced the lowly Jags last who teed off on the passing game all day ? The Bills foolishly went pass heavy the whole day and just gained a measly 20 yards on like 8 attempts on the ground excluding Allen’s scrambling. Results weren't pretty. Edited September 6, 2022 by prissythecat 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 1 hour ago, ScottLaw said: Around 65/35 on average. Over 5% more than the last two seasons huh? I’m surprised you want me Saffold and Brown pass blocking 65% of the time Only the Bucs hit 65% in 2021 Only the jags were above 64% in 2020 i think we’ve been right on the money close to 60-40 the last 2 years. Maybe we would’ve won the SB in years past throwing 65% of the time. I don’t think that would be smart with this OL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Scott7975 said: Are they not punting because Josh Allen is the QB or Nate Peterman 🤣 A perfect example of a stat cutting both ways. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said: Again, the issue is how you measure a successful running game. A 100 yard rusher tells you almost nothing - how many carries did it take? What about teams with over 100 yards rushing in a game using multiple runners? What percentage of the runs resulted in a first down or were otherwise better than average against that opponent in that down and distance? You need to measure the efficacy and efficiency of the running game - pointing to a single 100 yard rusher as correlating with winning percentages is a nearly useless stat. A fair point. It does need more drill down to see what drives the rushing success. But intuitively, would a team that is only gaining 2 yards a pop on the ground try to run the ball 50 times? Also, would a team that is able to spread the ball around to multiple rushers to reach 100 yards tend to be on the losing side? Probably not. On the other hand, it is relatively easy to get 300 yards in the air when playing catch up or in garbage time. So maybe simply increasing the 300 yard passing threshold to something higher may give more interesting results as suggested in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 1 hour ago, prissythecat said: What happened last season when the Bills faced the lowly Jags last who teed off on the passing game all day ? The Bills foolishly went pass heavy the whole day and just gained a measly 20 yards on like 8 attempts on the ground excluding Allen’s scrambling. Results weren't pretty. Because they couldn't block. Running more would have made zero difference. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, prissythecat said: What happened last season when the Bills faced the lowly Jags last who teed off on the passing game all day ? The Bills foolishly went pass heavy the whole day and just gained a measly 20 yards on like 8 attempts on the ground excluding Allen’s scrambling. Results weren't pretty. That was mostly just a crappy game by Allen and really the whole offense. Including the run game, by the way. Moss went 3 for 6 in that game and Singletary 6 for 16. Are we supposed to think that if we'd just kept running and making crappy gains the Jags would have thought that they needed to switch their defensive focus? The problem wasn't a lack of runs. It was a terrible game in all facets of the offensive game. 3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Because they couldn't block. Running more would have made zero difference. Ah, said it better than I. Their DL killed our OL but nobody played well on that side of the ball. Edited September 6, 2022 by Thurman#1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBills1998 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 You still need a 1,000 yard rusher to help take some of the load off your QB’s shoulders. Just ask Dan Marino if he would’ve liked to have had a consistent 1,000 yard back 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 14 hours ago, Big Blitz said: All true which is what made our first 13 games last year so baffling. Plus, the defense was playing that 2 deep shell begging us to run. So maybe it was Daboll. Maybe it was the oline. Maybe it took 13 games to figure this out or all of it. I think it was Daboll. There were also way too many plays where we telegraphed run or pass, and too many RPO's which don't always work against the speed of NFL defenders. He just wasn't a good designers of the running game. With Kromer and Dorsey I think it's going to get a lot better. And if the passing game and our D play at the same level or better than last year, the Bills will be a juggernaut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 (edited) 49 minutes ago, BuffaloBills1998 said: You still need a 1,000 yard rusher to help take some of the load off your QB’s shoulders. Just ask Dan Marino if he would’ve liked to have had a consistent 1,000 yard back That was a lot of years ago. The game was different then. And you do NOT NEED a 1,000 yard rusher. You just don't. The Rams didn't have one last year, nor did they have an especially good run game. The Bucs did not have one the year before. The Chiefs best runner didn't reach 500 yards the year before when they won the Lombardi. You have to go back to the 2016 season to find a single Super Bowl champion with a 1,000 yard rusher on the team. That would not be true if you "need" a 1,000 yard runner. Improving any facet of the team will help results. But you can't improve every facet, not with the salary cap and the rise of parity. It's a balancing act, and you have to have priorities. Your run offense is a lower priority than the other three facets. It still helps to have a good one. But it helps a lot less than having a good passing offense and defense. Edited September 6, 2022 by Thurman#1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Because they couldn't block. Running more would have made zero difference. They couldn't block defenders from one of the worst defenses coming into that game? Or was it really just a poor game plan that involved continually trying to drop back and pass for chunk yardage against a defense that had dialed up pressure and blitzing all day in anticipation of a pass happy offense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, prissythecat said: They couldn't block defenders from one of the worst defenses coming into that game? Or was it really just a poor game plan that involved continually trying to drop back and pass for chunk yardage against a defense that had dialed up pressure and blitzing all day in anticipation of a pass happy offense? No, it wasn't. Again, when they tried to run, they were awful. Moss went 3 for 6 in that game and Singletary 6 for 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBills1998 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 21 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: That was a lot of years ago. The game was different then. And you do NOT NEED a 1,000 yard rusher. You just don't. The Rams didn't have one last year, nor did they have an especially good run game. The Bucs did not have one the year before. The Chiefs best runner didn't reach 500 yards the year before when they won the Lombardi. You have to go back to the 2016 season to find a single Super Bowl champion with a 1,000 yard rusher on the team. That would not be true if you "need" a 1,000 yard runner. Improving any facet of the team will help results. But you can't improve every facet, not with the salary cap and the rise of parity. It's a balancing act, and you have to have priorities. Your run offense is a lower priority than the other four facets. It still helps to have a good one. But it helps a lot less than a good passing offense and defense. I disagree, Josh needs a running game to rely on so he doesn’t get killed trying to constantly run the ball himself. Also I’m sure his INTS would go down if he has a consistent running game to rely on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: No, it wasn't. Again, when they tried to run, they were awful. Moss went 3 for 6 in that game and Singletary 6 for 16. 9 rushes vs something like 45 pass attempts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, prissythecat said: 9 rushes vs something like 45 pass attempts. 5.6 ypa passing so the passing game was pretty darn bad on its own yet they kept trying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 2 hours ago, ScottLaw said: Yea… around 65/30. 60/40 the last two seasons sounds about right… how many of those were actually called passes that Josh ran though? Def should’ve thrown it more earlier in that Chiefs divisional game instead of trying to force the run. My overall point is the ball should be in Josh’s hands much more often than not…. Specifically in big downs and big games. Agreed….. but when it isn’t a big down in a big game, they should be keeping an eye on minimizing his tread to keep him healthy. if the plan is to win the SB with all Josh, all day, all year, we’re putting our franchise at risk. We need to take some pressure off of him so he’s 💯 for the big down and big games. 65/35 is a bad idea behind this OL imo. The run game should be utilized at least 40% and should be more efficient than last season 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted September 6, 2022 Author Share Posted September 6, 2022 5 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said: Yes. It’s a terrible take that has been debunked carefully and systematically in this thread, but don’t expect the OP to change his mind. To what? That Carson Wentz is terrible? Without Taylor they probably win 3 games last year. Using "made the playoffs" or "winning the Super Bowl" as the only barometer is ridiculous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 1 hour ago, prissythecat said: They couldn't block defenders from one of the worst defenses coming into that game? Or was it really just a poor game plan that involved continually trying to drop back and pass for chunk yardage against a defense that had dialed up pressure and blitzing all day in anticipation of a pass happy offense? No they couldn't block anyone. Until week 12 or 13 the Bills oline was one of the worst olines in the league last year. They played well for 6 weeks down the stretch.... but the offensive line was freaking horrible before that. It was the reason the Bills were not the #1 seed. Zero doubt in my mind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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